<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="887"><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="32">Phil's Top 25 Forecast
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</td><td rowspan="3" bgcolor="#cccc99" height="31"><script type="text/javascript">//<![CDATA[ WriteDate(true, true, 0);//]]></script>Friday, October 03, 2008</td><td rowspan="3" valign="middle" height="31">
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</td><td rowspan="3" height="165">Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Also this year I have added two new things to the forecasts. I am listing the last 11 years matchups between the schools (just click on team names in Blue. I am also providing you with the team page from my FCS preview (over 100 pages) to give you a better idea of the type of FCS (1AA) foe that the top teams are facing each week. *Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 yds OR 3pts!
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</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="3" height="95">Robert Griffin is an exciting true frosh QB for Baylor who should make some plays and the Bears should put some points on the board vs the #1 team. The Oklahoma/TCU game was closer than the final score indicates (see Thursday’s News and Notes) but the Sooners will avoid the current upset bug.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Oklahoma 48 BAYLOR 24
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</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3" height="95">Good spot for Kentucky catching the Tide off their super impressive win at Georgia and moving up to #2 in the polls. Kentucky is a very quiet 4-0 this year and I like their defense. This should be a lower scoring game but Bama has next week off and Saban will have their attention about avoiding upsets.
PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 27 Kentucky 10
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</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="5" height="137">This one could be a surprise upset. Missouri has lost their last 15 trips here with their last win in Lincoln in 1978! This is a night game and the Huskers will be given no chance after their loss to Virginia Tech last week. Missouri is off a bye but watch for the Huskers to play much better than last week. It would be ironic if Missouri caught a deflected pass in the end zone like in 1997 when the Tigers almost upset #1 Nebraska at home as a 29 point dog.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Missouri 42 NEBRASKA 35
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</td><td colspan="7" height="109">Last year Oklahoma traveled to Colorado the week before the Red River Rivalry and led 24-7 in the 4Q but they got caught looking ahead and were upset by the Buffaloes. Already this year the Buffs knocked off a ranked West Virginia team at home. Texas has the RRR on deck, so it will be closer than my computer calls for.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Texas 31 COLORADO 17
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</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="3" height="109">Kansas St upset Texas on the road last year around this time so Texas Tech had better be careful. They are just 7-11 traveling to Big 12 North stadiums and 2-5 the last 7 Big 12 road gms overall including two upset. I have not seen Tech play up to their talent level in any of their games yet this year but perhaps they will break out this week even though they are in a tough situation.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Texas Tech 38 KANSAS ST 27
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</td><td colspan="8" rowspan="3" height="123">I had Penn St rated higher than anyone else in the country this year as I had them in my Top Ten and #2 in the Big Ten while some magazines actually had them as low as #7 in the Big Ten. This looks like a flat spot off a “White Out” national TV game vs Illinois and with huge games vs Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State on deck the next 3 weeks. They have enough talent to get out of West Lafayette with a win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Penn St 34 PURDUE 20
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</td><td colspan="7" rowspan="5" height="151">Utah came up here and beat the Aggies 58-10 a few weeks back. BYU has a take no prisoners approach and could even have the crowd edge for this Friday Night game. Utah St does have some potential with new QB Borel bringing mobility to the offense and a mobile QB is needed for their schemes. You might not realize this but Utah St beat Idaho 42-17 in their last game! BYU was favored big in each of their last two trips to Logan but needed 2 OT’s to win in ’99 and only won 35-34 in 2002 but that was before Mendenhall arrived.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BYU 47 Utah St 13
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</td><td colspan="8" height="84">I am very impressed with the Ducks this year because even without LY’s QB Dennis Dixon and now without their top 2 or sometimes 3 QB’s this year, they continue to put points on the board. USC will be angry but the Ducks will keep this one closer than expected.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 33 Oregon 20
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="5" height="151">Last week on these pages I wrote that Ole Miss could be 4-0 this year and the Gators were off a solid win vs rival Tennessee and would not bring their “A” game and said it would be closer than most expect. It was and after a stunning upset I look for the Gators to come out with their hair on fire. I still have them projected in the national title game as they will be favored in all of the rest of their games and a one loss SEC team WILL be in the title game. At the start of the year I said this was a rebuilding year for the Hogs and they have not let me down in that regard.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Florida 48 ARKANSAS 13
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</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="3" height="112">It just came out that USF will likely be without their star DE Selvie and also starting DT McClain. That is big as their DLine is among the best in the NCAA when they are healthy. So far this year I have watched Pitt struggle vs a couple of MAC teams, get outgained by 100+ yards by Iowa at home and trail Syracuse 24-16 in the 4Q! Even without their DL’s USF is a national title contender and Pitt is not.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USF 34 Pitt 20
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</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="889"><colgroup><col width="161"><col width="1"><col width="3"><col width="344"><col width="1"><col width="26"><col width="2"><col width="2"><col width="1"><col width="340"><col width="5"><col width="2"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="54">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Ohio St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Wisconsin
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="8" height="25">
</td><td height="25">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="29">
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td height="29">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="6" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="5" height="112">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="5" height="112">Last week was the first time RB Beanie Wells (’08 Heisman candidate) and QB Terelle Pryor (future Heisman candidate) both started a game and they led Minny 34-6 in the 4Q. The D allowed just 125 yards in the first 3 quarters but the 2nd and 3rd string gave up 14 4Q points on a couple of drives with multiple 4th down conversions. The 1st string D, Wells and Pryor will play all game here and Buckeyes will start a surge up in the polls.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Ohio St 20 WISCONSIN 16
</td><td colspan="2" height="18">
</td><td height="18">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="4" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Auburn
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Vanderbilt
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="54">
</td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="34">
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="5" height="151">Did you know that Vandy has been outgained in 3 of their 4 games this year? They were very fortunate to escape with wins over Ole Miss and South Carolina and have been getting some national publicity and ESPN Gameday will be at their stadium this week. Last year Auburn led 35-0 before allowing a late score and Vandy’s luck will run out this week. Unlike when Auburn traveled to Miss St and had a 3 to 1 yardage edge but only won by one, the computer calls for a 362-198 yard edge here and this time it will be reflected on the scoreboard.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Auburn 23 VANDERBILT 9
</td><td rowspan="5" height="151">
</td><td height="34">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" height="13">
</td><td height="13">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="51">
</td><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Kansas
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Iowa St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="2" height="48">
</td><td height="48">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="3">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="59">
</td><td rowspan="3" height="59">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="9" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="109">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="3" height="109">Iowa St coach Chizik has been a home dog 5 times and has 3 outright upsets to show for it and also a near upset of Oklahoma last year in which his team was down 10-7 and had the ball near the OU goal line but was intercepted in the end zone. He has more talent and depth on this year’s squad and Kansas is struggling to run the football, so another upset is possible here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Kansas 28 Iowa St 21
</td><td colspan="4" height="52">
</td><td height="52">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="53">
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Oregon St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Utah
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="53">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="1">
</td><td height="1">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="889"><colgroup><col width="162"><col width="2"><col width="345"><col width="1"><col width="30"><col width="348"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="12">
</td><td rowspan="4" height="109">Oregon St is off their big upset of USC and got a lot of press for it including being named the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl team of the week. Now they have to make a trip to a non-BCS school and Utah can make a name for themselves with a solid win vs the team that beat USC. I still rate Utah as the leading non-BCS team that has a shot at making a BCS bowl.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 37 Oregon St 24
</td><td height="12">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td height="51">
</td><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="54">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Western KY
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Virginia Tech
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="43">
</td><td height="43">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="11">
</td><td height="11">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="889"><colgroup><col width="162"><col width="348"><col width="30"><col width="2"><col width="345"><col width="1"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="4" height="95">
</td><td rowspan="4" height="95">Hats off to VT which overcame two tough road games the last two weeks and escaped with wins. WK is improved over last year but they were an FCS team last year. WK has already lost at Bama by 34 and Kentucky by 38. VT has a bye on deck and this is their homecoming game.
PHIL’S FORECAST: VIRGINIA TECH 37 Western Kentucky 6
</td><td colspan="4" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="48">
</td><td height="48">
</td><td height="48">
</td><td height="48">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="40">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">LA Tech
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Boise St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="40">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="14">
</td><td height="14">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="889"><colgroup><col width="157"><col width="2"><col width="2"><col width="343"><col width="1"><col width="1"><col width="1"><col width="28"><col width="3"><col width="2"><col width="343"><col width="5"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="10" height="7">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="4" height="81">Boise is unbeatable on its blue turf and rFr QB Moore might just end up to be the best QB to ever play for Boise. LT did upset Miss St this year but that was at home. Boise has a shot at being a BCS-buster again and will want to impress on national TV.
PHIL’S FORECAST: BOISE ST 38 Louisiana Tech 14
</td><td height="7">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="51">
</td><td colspan="3" height="51">
</td><td colspan="4" height="51">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="10" height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Texas A&M
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Oklahoma St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="3" height="18">
</td><td height="18">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="18">
</td><td height="18">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="18">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td height="18">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="9" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" rowspan="5" height="109">
</td><td colspan="5" rowspan="5" height="109">Texas A&M barely got past Army last week and now must face the potent Cowboys on the road. Mike Gundy knows to kick a program like A&M when they are down to show any recruits that he might battle the Aggies for that the difference in the programs is large. Texas A&M has actually beaten OSU 4 straight times, so there will be no let up by the OSU offense in the 2nd half.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA ST 45 Texas A&M 17
</td><td colspan="2" height="29">
</td><td height="29">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="7">
</td><td height="7">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="54">
</td><td colspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Connecticut
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">North Carolina
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="54">
</td><td height="54">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="5" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="15">
</td><td colspan="3" rowspan="5" height="109">NC survived without QB Yates last week and that was in a tougher environment vs a stonger team. Connecticut was outgained by Louisville 508-279 but somehow managed to win. NC already whipped Big East member Rutgers 44-12 on the road and I am not sure that UC is actually a stronger team than the Knights.
PHIL’S FORECAST: NORTH CAROLINA 30 Connecticut 16
</td><td rowspan="5" height="109">
</td><td height="15">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="22">
</td><td height="22">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td colspan="2" height="51">
</td><td colspan="4" height="51">
</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="8" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="54">
</td><td colspan="4" rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td><td valign="top" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Hawaii
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Fresno St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">
</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td colspan="3" height="17">
</td><td height="17">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="7" height="37">
</td><td height="37">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td>
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="506"><colgroup><col width="157"><col width="348"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td height="95">
</td><td height="95">Pat Hill did a fine job the last two weeks. They were hoping for an undefeated season and after losing to Wisky they did not go into the tank. Hill has surprisingly never won a WAC title outright and that is his new goal and they take their first step towards trying to achieve it with a comfy home win.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FRESNO ST 34 Hawaii 13
</td><td height="95">
</td></tr></tbody></table>