CFB Week 5

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Had a very disappointing Week #4, going 7-7. I'm not going to rehash it all here, as it was already done in (at the end of) last week's thread...but the bottom line was that (with a few mistakes) I wasted a good week of college football, and didn't make any money as a result. Anyhow, it's a new week...a new card...and, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Fri. 9/27
Utah St/SJST ov61 for 3/4
Sat. 9/28
Washington (-7) for 1
Arizona St (-6) for 1
Oregon St (-10) for 3/4
FSU(-12.5) to Miami(-10) to OkSt(-9.5) for 1 to win 1
Navy/WKU over 57.5 for 1/2
New Mexico (+3) @ -115 for 1/2
Oklahoma/Notre Dame un50.5 for 3/4
Colorado/Oregon St ov58.5 for 3/4
Cal/Oregon un84 for 3/4
Washington St (+9) for 3/4
LSU/UGA ov50 to Bama(-2) to A&M(-2) to Tenny(-5) for 1.05 to win 1



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
YTD: 32-18, +12.885

Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Washington (-7) for 1
Arizona St (-6) for 1
Click to expand...

my first two plays of the week. not a ton of line value with either one, but like i said last nite (criticizing my week four card), these were the two games i was playing right outta the gate...so long as the lines were set reasonably, which they were/are. to be honest, for both of them, i was looking for anything under 10 pts today.

:shake:
 
other Pac-12 stuff

Stanford...i'm undecided, at the moment. Washington St has started 4-0 ATS, and this is a sandwich spot between ASU & UW.

Oregon...line climbing thru the roof. Early, but leaning to points vs a side here against Cal.

Oregon St...back home vs Colorado, but need to look at the injury sitch first. Their o-line has been a mess to date, and no consistency.
 
I'm going to make a very large play in that Wash game but it wont be on a side. GL friend.
 
Leaving it here for now...just the two Pac-12 games for this afternoon.
Gonna let the lines sit & marinate a bit, move around if they want too, while I finish updating my PR#s and so forth.

:shake:
 
an early addition...

Oregon St (-10) for 3/4

my #s make the Beavs a 19.5 home fav, so had to take the line value before/in case it rose. colorado hasn't played in weeks...and hasn't played a 'meaningful' game since opening vs colly st in week one. oregon st's o-line issues aren't gonna get fixed this week, but the offense isn't their problem. hopefully their defense can improve a bit, coming off B2B roadies...but that's the reason for the 3/4s play right now. may add a bit later.
 
another early addition...

Utah St/SJST ov61 for 3/4

not much of a totals player, but was waiting on this one. (fwiw, i made utah st an 8 pt fav on the road.) anyhow, all of us SJST backers last week vs Minny saw how they (pathetically) couldn't stop the run. and all of us USC backers last week vs Utah St saw how Lane failed to (or couldn't) take advantage of that hole over the middle in the pass defense. both things were very frustrating & painful to watch, lol.
Fales is one of the best QBs in the game. His only problem is that he can't do everything himself. That said, imo, he and this Spartan offense are good for at least 27 pts at hm...probably a bit more. The last 3 meetings (L3 years) totaled 76, 67, & 72. Honestly don't see much changing in Friday night's tilt...something like a 38-31 game.



Btw, should've waited on that USC $ to show up. ASU's down to -5.5 again. :(
 
wow. i'm completely finished with my #s and so forth, and this card is fucking tight. at first glance, i thought the slate of games would be pretty solid. i was mistaken.
don't get me wrong...there are a lot of great games to watch...it's just that the lines are ridiculously tight, imo...according to my numbers.

no more additions yet. :)
there are two more Pac-12 games that i'll be involved with before the week's over, and you can probably surmise how i'll play them.

but here are my non-Pac-12 leans at the moment...

- teaser of Miami/FSU/OkieLite...almost a certainty i'll be teasing these 3 road favs.
- N Illinois (-3)...fair to decent chance i play this side.
- Navy (-3) or over 58...decent chance i play one of these two.
- Troy/Duke over 67...square, but halfway decent chance i play this total.
- Oklahoma/ND under 48.5...same story, just an under this time.
- Kent St (+2.5)...slim chance i play this side.
- Hawaii (+18.5)...slim chance i play this side.

There's a 6.5 pt variance between my PR #s and the lines with both Kent St & Hawaii. That said, these are the type of 1/2 unit plays that burned me this past weekend...and honestly, there's a part of me that would rather simply avoid these games...versus the part of me that wants to stick to/trust my PR #s.

Anyhow, that's the non-Pac-12 stuff via my #s. There are a couple more 'situational' leans I've got, where my #s match the current lines...but other factors have me strongly looking at a certain side. I'll bring them up if/when they become relevant to do so. Anyhow, we'll see how the rest of the week goes.
 
ok, i'm back @ 3am because i lied. the newsletters and shit come out tomorrow morning, and some of these favs are gonna get bumped up a bit (partly due to the high scores/margins of late)...so i played that road teaser i mentioned in my non-Pac-12 leans.

FSU(-12.5) to Miami(-10) to OkSt(-9.5) for 1 to win 1

fwiw...i made FSU a 20 pt fav, Miami a 22.5 pt fav, and Okie Lite an 18 pt fav. played my road teaser now, cuz these lines should only rise...even though i think they're already pretty tight, with only Miami having some room to climb. but that's the nature of things, i guess. anyhow, it's locked in place before Tuesday's moves.



speaking of Tuesday, etc...
I really want the Stanford money to start coming in hard. Obviously, I love Stanford's team...see last week's best pick...but this week is simply a look-ahead spot. Stanford, as I've mentioned in some other threads this week, has Washington on deck...and that's a big time revenge spot for them. As a result, bottom line, I see Wazzou keeping this one close...and low scoring...like they did last year.
All that said, I need some more cushion to back the home dog. 10 pts isn't quite enough. So please newsletters/etc...lets get that number pushed up to favor mighty Stanford by 2 TDs...or at least closer to it, lol. Would be much appreciated. :)
 
two more (small) additions...

Navy/WKU over 57.5 for 1/2
New Mexico (+3) @ -115 for 1/2

Navy or the over was on my list of leans. The side now seems like a trap to me, but liked the total enough to play it. Navy's strength is running, which WKU can't stop. And conversely, WKU can do some damage of their own. So it's the over here.

New Mexico wasn't on my list of PR-driven leans, but it was one of the situational games I only hinted at. Made this a pick em, so it's not about any line value. This is about a good coach, with a work in progress team, where realistically this home game is one of only 2 or 3 legit chances they have of getting a win. But the kicker for me is twofold...UNLV is atrocious against the run, and UNLV has gotta be the worst road team in college football. So a small play on the home dog.

Will recap my leans in a bit, but there won't be much more to add this week. Would still like to see the Stanford line get driven up, dammit.
 
as for the leans...

Yanks27Sox7 said:
Stanford...i'm undecided, at the moment. Washington St has started 4-0 ATS, and this is a sandwich spot between ASU & UW.

Oregon...line climbing thru the roof. Early, but leaning to points vs a side here against Cal.

Oregon St...back home vs Colorado, but need to look at the injury sitch first. Their o-line has been a mess to date, and no consistency.
Click to expand...

Stanford/Wash St = if the line climbs, i'll be on Wazzou here. if the line doesn't climb, i'm not sure what i'll do yet...if anything.

Oregon = still thinking about this matchup...undecided.

Oregon St = added the play on Monday.



Yanks27Sox7 said:
but here are my non-Pac-12 leans at the moment...

- teaser of Miami/FSU/OkieLite...almost a certainty i'll be teasing these 3 road favs.
- N Illinois (-3)...fair to decent chance i play this side.
- Navy (-3) or over 58...decent chance i play one of these two.
- Troy/Duke over 67...square, but halfway decent chance i play this total.
- Oklahoma/ND under 48.5...same story, just an under this time.
- Kent St (+2.5)...slim chance i play this side.
- Hawaii (+18.5)...slim chance i play this side.

There's a 6.5 pt variance between my PR #s and the lines with both Kent St & Hawaii. That said, these are the type of 1/2 unit plays that burned me this past weekend...and honestly, there's a part of me that would rather simply avoid these games...versus the part of me that wants to stick to/trust my PR #s.

Anyhow, that's the non-Pac-12 stuff via my #s. There are a couple more 'situational' leans I've got, where my #s match the current lines...but other factors have me strongly looking at a certain side. I'll bring them up if/when they become relevant to do so. Anyhow, we'll see how the rest of the week goes.
Click to expand...

The road teaser = played it a day or to ago.

N Illinois = drop...no longer a lean. based on their play of late, i don't trust them @ purdue's homecoming game.

Navy or the over = drop the side...i now feel it's a trap. but added the over tonight. (see post above)

Troy/Duke over = drop...no longer a lean. troy's 3rd straight road game, and not sure what to expect from them. also don't think duke comes close to last week's total, so they can't do this alone.

Oklahoma/ND under = still a lean. line's rising, so waiting/watching.

Kent St = drop...no longer a lean. 3rd straight road game for these bozos too. visitor sucks in this series. and this is the type of game that burned me last week, so fuck it...it's off my radar.

Hawaii = undecided, but just a slight lean. my PR #s like it...but they were dead wrong last week with the grass skirts, so it's doubtful i make a play here.
 
sorry for the additional bump, but thinking out loud...

Yanks27Sox7 said:
the sesame street number of the day...84 :wtf2:


makes me wonder if there's a spread or total the books can set high enough when the Ducks are involved, lol.
Click to expand...

HUNT said:
Surprised its not 94 tbh
Click to expand...

Yanks27Sox7 said:
was just thinking about at what point i'd consider Cal and the under, lol.
Click to expand...


curious about the team totals (when they come out) in the Cal/Oregon game. based on the line, looks like it'll be 60 and 24, give or take.

last two in this series...
'11 in Eugene...Oregon won 43-15
'12 in Berkeley...Oregon won 59-17

the Ducks can throw up as many pts as they want here, to be honest. but the main difference from the L2 games is that Cal's offense is improved. dykes & goff definitely got that side of the ball moving in the right direction.

anyhow, if that 'give or take' in the team totals equates to seeing a 23 for Cal, i think that would need some serious consideration (at least on my part).

like i said, just kinda thinkin' out loud. what do you guys think?
both teams off a bye, and Oregon doesn't have anything meaningful on deck. sorry, colorado. but i guess if i'm kinda talking about a Cal team total going over...after talking about the Ducks being able to score whatever they want...maybe Hunt's quote above is the best play...because in the way i'm laying it all out, we'd reach the mid-90s.
 
two additions...though one was unexpected. both totals, but neither had anything to do with Dr Bob or RAS...just line movement of some other sort.

Oklahoma/Notre Dame un50.5 for 3/4
Colorado/Oregon St ov58.5 for 3/4

mentioned a couple times how the sooner/domer under was a lean. and that's when i was looking at 48.5 pts...then again at 49.5 pts last night. well, it's up to 50.5 pts today...so i added the lean to my list of plays. hopefully those 2 pts aren't needed, lol.

i rarely play the same game two ways...and already played/love the Beaver side. that said, this was one of my favorite overs of the week...based on the line, and my take on the game. when i took the side, the total was 60.5 pts. well, since it's dropped 2 pts...even though rexy said someone suspicious hit the over during the RAS stuff...i added the over to my list of plays this week. didn't expect too...and maybe i'm wrong...but i couldn't pass up the value created on something i had already liked.

anyhow, that's it for now. prolly just one more play this week. but still waiting for some help on that stanford line. come on, public...
 
I had been thinking of the Cal / Oregon game and realized just how much better this offense should be in terms of doing their part in this game. I hated Zach Maynard at QB for Cal and the Riley/Longshore years you never knew what you were going to get. I don't think I can forcast how many the Ducks score, but I see Cal into the 20s for sure and even 30s maybe. That means Ducks got to top 60 on the way to 70.

My only concern is Goff's first road game is a night Autzen trip and he might give Ducks some short fields or scores too.

New Mexico wasn't on my list of PR-driven leans, but it was one of the situational games I only hinted at. Made this a pick em, so it's not about any line value. This is about a good coach, with a work in progress team, where realistically this home game is one of only 2 or 3 legit chances they have of getting a win. But the kicker for me is twofold...UNLV is atrocious against the run, and UNLV has gotta be the worst road team in college football. So a small play on the home dog.
Click to expand...

I haven't watched N Mex play a down this year but was interested in them here. Like you say, better coach, better situation being home off bye vs a very beatable team. What do you know about Lobo D? UNLV has the weapons on O.
 
^^ i'll get back to you when possible, bro.



hopefully i can post...

change in plans due to bad weather in the pacific northwest this weekend. all sides are ok. but i'm buying off that colorado/oregon st total in a minute.
furthermore, i'm taking a shot at the cal/oregon under as a result. heavy rain & high winds, so going the opposite of how i planned here.
 
on 2nd thought, i'm gonna sit tight for a bit longer with that colorado/oregon st over. if needed, i'll buy off of that later.

there'll definitely be sloppy tracks all weekend in the pacific northwest, very windy too. but this is an afternoon game, so wanna wait. hoping it won't be as bad as it looks.

anyhow, no change there for now. but regardless of that, i am adding the cal/oregon under tonight...whether this shit allows me to post it or not, lol.
this isn't how i capped it...it's strictly a weather driven play, considering the number was already set very high. being a late night game, lots of rain and heavy wind totally changes things...at least, imo.
 
and the weather-driven, (late nite) contrarian addition...

Cal/Oregon un84 for 3/4

see the 2 posts above. sorry to be quick, but it's late...not to mention the stuff with the site tonight making it tougher than normal.

makes it 10 plays on my card for now. but like i said, will keep monitoring the weather up there...so buying off something is still a possibility.
should be 1 or 2 more plays before saturday though. either way, 12 plays would be my max this weekend. but gonna add washington st (somehow), and maybe one other.

:sleepy:
 
s--k said:
I haven't watched N Mex play a down this year but was interested in them here. Like you say, better coach, better situation being home off bye vs a very beatable team. What do you know about Lobo D? UNLV has the weapons on O.
Click to expand...

me neither...just box scores, etc. the defense is a concern though. that's the reason for it only being a half play.
 
Eugene weather during game time

[h=3]7 PM[/h]
12.png
61[SUP]°[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 58° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 87% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 70% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>SSW at 24 mph</dd></dl>

[h=3]8 PM[/h]
12.png
61[SUP]°[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 58° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 87% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 70% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>S at 23 mph</dd></dl>

[h=3]9 PM[/h]
12.png
60[SUP]°[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 56° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 90% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 70% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>S at 22 mph</dd></dl>

[h=3]10 PM[/h]
12.png
60[SUP]°[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 57° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 87% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 70% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>SSW at 21 mph</dd></dl>
 
That didn't paste too well... :(

Cal/Oregon total dropping today, as they catch wind...pun intended. Glad i took a shot at it last night.

Still debating my Colorado/Oregon St position.
 
Corvallis weather during the game tomorrow...

[h=3]1 PM Sat Sep 28[/h]
12.png
61[SUP]°F[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 58° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 93% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 100% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>S at 22 mph</dd></dl>

[h=3]2 PM[/h]
12.png
62[SUP]°[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 59° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 90% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 100% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>S at 23 mph</dd></dl>

[h=3]3 PM[/h]
12.png
63[SUP]°[/SUP]
Rain / Wind

<dl><dt>FEELS LIKE:</dt><dd> 60° </dd></dl> <dl><dt>HUMIDITY:</dt><dd> 87% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>PRECIP:</dt><dd> 100% </dd></dl> <dl><dt>WIND:</dt><dd>S at 24 mph</dd></dl>
 
few things...

1) well, that was a bad way to kick off the weekend...with the utah st/san jose st over not coming close. oh, it shoulda hit...still no doubt about that...but weird shit tends to happen when it comes to the week night games.
i need to learn to simply lay off these tilts. or better yet, wait and bet live action...cuz it seemed to me fairly early that this was gonna be a funny game, and the over would get hosed. win some, lose some...but that was just Yag.

2) i'm torn on the subject, but i'm sticking with that colorado/oregon st over tomorrow...even though that same weather got me to take the cal/oregon under before others did the same thing the following morning.
few reasons. first is the time of day/game. second are the teams involved. and third is the action this over (buffs/beavs) continued to get. so despite what might be my better judgement, i'm riding that fucker out.

3) happy with all my lines, with one exception...asu. all the touts release usc, and people followed...on top of the typical usc $ that shows up weekly. sure, i would rather have the 3.5 or 4 pts...but that said, it still won't matter.
you guys trying to get me to hit asu again though, lol? like i did when you moved the ucla/nebraska line against me? if you keep at it and show a flat 3 tomorrow, just might. you fuckin touts were supposed to move the stanford line instead. ;)
 
with that outta my system (albeit sarcastically), my final additions for the weekend...

Washington St (+9) for 3/4
LSU/UGA ov50 to Bama(-2) to A&M(-2) to Tenny(-5) for 1.05 to win 1

brings my final card to 12 plays, though that SEC teaser was a change of plans. (seems like i've had a few of those this week, dammit.)

bottom line...something (situational) i was stalking didn't work out...so i ended up teasing a bunch of crap in the SEC that i liked. i've got bama, a&m, and the vols all winning by 2 TDs or more...and expect the lsu/georgia game to reach high 60s to low 70s. but if you read my threads, you know i'm a sucker for this kinda shit now & again.

lastly, the stanford/wazzou game. as i mentioned before, i really wanted more cushion with this play. and i honestly expected the line to rise a bit. but in the end, after waiting all week...warning about UW revenge on deck for Stanford...all i saw was a bit of reverse line movement, unfortunately. still wanted this action though, so took it as is.


well, that's it from me. hope it's a great saturday, amigos. :cheers:
 
good morning my brother yeah your right i'm leaving the USC game alone I will root for you bol
 
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