CFB Week 5 (9/25-9/27) News and Picks

RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

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Morning Coffee Welcomes Sergio To Texas, Finally

from Burnt Orange Nation by GhostofBigRoy

Savior from the injured list? After Bruce Chambers put to rest on Tuesday any speculation about moving a player from defense to offense to play tight end, Longhorn fans thirsty for a pass-catching tight end have shifted their interest to Ian Harris, out since early in fall practice with a strained neck. Mack Brown also said on Wednesday that Harris may be able to play for the first time this season on Saturday after resuming practice Tuesday. With Josh Marshall probably done for the season, Harris is the most likely player to stretch the field from the tight end position. Several questions surround him, however, including how much he will be able to play, if he has anything close to the rapport with Colt McCoy that Blaine Irby was developing, and how much the coaches are willing to play him instead of lumbering giants like Peter Ullman and Greg Smith.

The quarterback is his prey. It appears that Will Muschamp has unleashed the beast. After two nondescript years at Texas, Sergio Kindle has finally arrived. Note: Kindle was never an afterthought to Longhorn fans. Begin rant. In fact, he was at the forefront of their minds when speculating about why the defense was underachieving. They just wanted the real Sergio Kindle to stand up. End rant. To take advantage of his pass rushing skills, Muschamp has reduced Kindle's coverage responsibilities and lined him up as a defensive end in the nickel package. Kindle's former coach has a great quote about his abilities, "Thoroughbreds don't go backwards." If Kindle struggles in coverage, then don't drop him back into coverage. Use another linebacker to do that who doesn't have so much value as a pass rusher. Kudos to Muschamp for fulfilling his promise to put the best players on the field and use them appropriately. The result? In the second half, Rice often had to keep a running back in the backfield for protection. What an advantage a defensive player can provide when the offense has to start scheming for them and diverting their resources.

Ode to correct measurements. Good article up over at Inside Texas that takes a look at how Muschamp tracks his defense. Instead of keeping stats like the NCAA, he explains how the Longhorn defensive coaches do it:

We do it like the NFL does it. When a quarterback drops back, and then he scrambles for 23 yards, that's in the passing stat. That's a passing game breakdown. The NCAA counts that as a run, but that's not a deficiency in the running game. That's a deficiency in the passing game. It's the same thing when the quarterback drops back to throw and you sack him for 18 yards (because) that's a positive in the passing game. It has nothing to do with running the football. Technically, the Rice quarterbacks dropped back 62 times Saturday, but the stats don't show that.

I like what Muschamp is saying--it's strange that the NCAA counts sacks against running plays, as Muschamp points out, it's a passing play. He goes on to talk about simplifying pass rush moves and not trying to get around the tackles on the edge, but rather to beat the blocker to a spot, and then "convert speed to power." Not often do coaches really get into the fundamentals of playing a position, but those quotes from Muschamp are golden.

Stop the hand-wringing. It's time to stop worrying about the passing yards the defense gives up. Yeah, it used to look bad to give up 300-yard passing games. But as Mack Brown said in his presser on Monday, it happens all the time now. What do you expect to happen when you only give up 17 rushing yards? It's difficult to hold even an average spread team like Rice to barely over 200 yards of total offense. Throw out all the passing stats and re-prioritize the important defensive numbers. In that vein, Will Muschamp is emphasizing yards per pass attempt (6.18), third-down efficiency (68%), and scoring defense (11, 11th in the country). It's the classic bend-but-don't-break strategy. And it makes sense. After being repeatedly gouged by big plays last season, the defense can see immense improvement by just cutting down on those killer big plays. It's all about the secondary keeping everything in front of them and the front four providing the pressure, which they did successfully to the tune of seven sacks against Rice, six in the second half after Muschamp told the defensive tackles to stop worrying about gap responsibilities and get to the quarterback.

Even Mr. Moneybags can take a hit. Even the seemingly limitless deep pockets of T. Boone Pickens have taken a hit with the recent economic woes. And that's bad news for the OSU athletic department, which has benefited greatly in recent years because of its wealthy benefactor. However, with reports that Pickens has lost $1 billion this year, the plans to construct an indoor practice facility have been put on hold, although renovations of the football stadium will continue. It will be interesting to see if the facility upgrades have an influence on recruiting at Oklahoma State, because after all, they do have a coach who is 41 and a man. I can't imagine it will make that much difference, although OU has overcome the fact it's in Norman to lure top athletes. Almost incomprehensible when you look at it that way, huh? Viva Austin!

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RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

This is the article about Texas' D and Muschamp referenced above. I wish Steele kept stats like this because I totally agree as to the accountability mentioned in the article.

<table><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="storytitle">What A Rush! </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="primaryimage" valign="top">

Muschamp: Orakpo turns 'speed to power'
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</td> <td valign="top"> <table bgcolor="#f5f5f5" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="60%"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td valign="middle" nowrap="nowrap">By Bill Frisbie
Lead Writer
Posted Sep 23, 2008
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Seven sacks against Rice was a good place to start, but even a less-than-vintage Arkansas team will be a better barometer of how far Texas' pass rush has progressed under first-year defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.
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True, Arkansas is coming off of a five-touchdown home loss to Alabama; the program is lucky not to be 0-3 after rallying from a pair of double-digit deficits in its first two outings. But the Hogs are putting the ball in the air to the tune of 277 ypg (NCAA No. 16). And the offensive line is anchored by 2007 Rimington Trophy winner Jonathan Luigs. That's why Saturday's contest is a litmus test for how Texas' pass rush might fare against what promises to be its most demanding Big 12 slate to date. This week, six Big 12 QBs -- including four on UT’s schedule -- are ranked in the nation's Top 10 in passing efficiency (Longhorn Colt McCoy is at No. 3). Meanwhile, Missouri's Chase Daniel, Texas Tech's Graham Harrell and Kansas' Todd Reesing rank in the nation's top four in passing yards. Combine that with the fact that the Horns’ 2007 pass defense was the worst in program history, mix in a couple of freshmen starting just their fourth game at each safety spot, and it reinforces why Muschamp placed such a premium on pass rush during spring and pre-season drills.
The Horns rank fourth nationally in sacks (336) since 1999, but those numbers have trailed off as of late. Texas notched just 28 sacks in 13 games last season and just 22 in 2004. The proliferation of spread offenses with those wiiiiiide splits have made it much more difficult to get to the quarterback, coaches have said. Conversely, Muschamp continues to preach that the best pass defense is an effective pass rush.
Texas has recorded nine sacks during the past two contests. The defense has produced 45 pressures and 35 hits on the QB during this season’s first three contests. It's a sign of progress, but Muschamp's assessment is cautionary.
"I don't pay attention to game-by-game numbers because it all depends on who you're playing," the Texas defensive coordinator said. "We do our stats different. We do it like the NFL does it. When a quarterback drops back, and then he scrambles for 23 yards, that's in the passing stat. That's a passing game breakdown. The NCAA counts that as a run, but that's not a deficiency in the running game. That's a deficiency in the passing game. It's the same thing when the quarterback drops back to throw and you sack him for 18 yards (because) that's a positive in the passing game. It has nothing to do with running the football. Technically, the Rice quarterbacks dropped back 62 times Saturday, but the stats don't show that. That's why our numbers don't match up with the NCAA's because our numbers are more reflective of how you're doing."
Many Texas fanned have pinned their hopes on Muschamp's hardhat approach that values a team's collective attitude as much as it does speed and attention to fundamentals. He comes from the line of thought that a confused player is an ineffective player. He keeps it simple; then, it's about reps, reps and more reps (somewhere Darrell Royal is smiling).
"You have all these D-line coaches teaching 84 different pass rush moves," Muschamp said. "Let's get good at one of them, and then let's have a counter off of it. You've got to reduce the pocket for the quarterback, but you often have all these guys going in there throwing their hands around with all these different pass-rush moves. And they're not getting any ground on the quarterback. We play to our strength. Let's use our speed, and let's convert speed to power. That's what we've been coaching."
It begins with a DE being told to imagine an imaginary 'X' four yards behind the inside leg of the offensive tackle.
"The most important thing about pass-rush is how you get off," Muschamp continued. "You've got to get a great take-off at the snap. We need to beat him (OT) to that point ('X'). Some kids just have the natural ability to get to that point. The tackle will usually soft-set you to block a speed rusher; that's what they do when you have a guy with good speed. That's where you want to convert speed to power. You power the tackle to the quarterback instead of running by him. I always tell our players that if they run past the quarterback, then it's like we're playing with just 10 guys. Nobody makes a sack when they run past the quarterback. You want to beat them with speed, and then you want to convert speed to power in the rush based on the set of the tackle. We talk to our kids in terms of horizontal pads and vertical sets. You're not going to beat the guy on the edge when he turns his pads. Those are the little things you have to look for."
Texas' top two defenders who convert 'speed to power' are DE Brian Orakpo and SLB Sergio Kindle, according to Muschamp. Already, offenses have schemed to try to stop them. Rice frequently motioned out a back to hold the edge in Texas' 52-10 win Saturday.
"That was something Rice had never shown," Muschamp observed. "We're going to see more and more of that."
It comes with the territory as, more and more, Texas sees a higher caliber of a football team.
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RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

Take the Double Extra Points

Week 5

Last Week: 7-3 ATS
Season: 25-14-1 ATS (64%)
DXLock: 3-1 ATS

So far, so good. After Week 4, we are sitting a pretty sultry 64% Against The Spread for the year with our weekly lock at 3-1 ATS. Unfortunately, the DXLock missed last week with Rutgers losing outright to Navy. Fortunately, odds are it hits this week. Grab your pen, paper, and hand lotion. If you like making money, this is probably for you.

TIMMY ROSE

4* CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6) over Buffalo: Before we get to the picks, I'd like to remind Dr. D that T. Rose is on a 6-0 run and looking to sweep the board for the 3rd straight week. Might want to lay down some cash on these picks, er, locks. Central Michigan is off a heartbreaking last minute loss at Purdue last week while Buffalo lost to Missouri in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score might suggest. Turner Gill's D gave up almost 600 yards to one of the Chases and were outgained by over 300 yards. Meanwhile, the Chippewas controlled every facet of the game against Purdue, yet came up short giving up a 40-yard TD run with just over a minute left. CMU has covered 7 of their last 8 MAC home games and we call for a dominating win with a bye week on deck.

3* OKLAHOMA (-17.5) over Texas Christian: If you don't think Bob Stoops has this game circled on his calendar then I have a portfolio of booming investment bank stocks to sell you. The contributors to this blog may have trouble recalling any Saturday in the last 4 years, but the Sooners have not forgotten the beating they took in their 2005 home opener. TCU embarrassed the Sooners in Norman as a 25-point underdog (sound familiar Sun Devil fans?) 17-10 in a game that really wasn't that close. With Baylor on deck, the Oklahoma will look to score early and often and we call for a 21 point lead at the half. Although the Horned Frogs have covered 6 out of their last 7, the Sooner offense is hotter than Google searches for Kelly Carrington (go to her home page after reading this) and this one has blowout written all over it.

2* Kent State (+18) over BALL STATE: The first thing all of us at DXP wish to say regarding this game is that our thoughts and prayers are with Dante Love and his family as we hope for a full recovery from a spinal cord injury he sustained in last week's blowout win at Indiana. Husker fans everywhere can attest to Dante's playmaking abilities as Ball State nearly pulled the upset last year in Lincoln, due in large part to big-time plays he made throughout the game. We hear he was an equally gifted player off the field. That said, the spread on this game is simply too big. Although Kent has looked terrible in the second half of every game this season and finished last season with 6 straight conference losses (each by less than 11 points), they return 16 starters and have the talent on both sides of the ball to keep this one closer than Vegas thinks.

SAMMY VEGAS

4* DUKE (-7) over Virginia: Duke coach David Cutcliffe (former Ole Miss coach) has the Blue Devils off to a 2-1 start this year. More importantly, he has them undefeated vs. the spread with the help of QB Thaddeus Lewis who is the ACC's second leading passer with 238 yards/game, 5 TDs, and 0 INTs. Duke's only loss this year came at Northwestern where they outgained the Wildcats by almost 150 yards and had a 29-14 first down advantage. Virginia's offense has been worse than DXP's offense at Barry's around 11 p.m. with a dance floor full of cougars. Al Groh has the Cavaliers averaging 233 total yards/game and they have lost their two FBS games by a combined score of 97-17. Duke will earn their first ACC win in 25 games here at home.

2* MIAMI, FL (-7) over North Carolina: Butch Davis returns back to Miami with a 2-1 Tar Heel team that is loaded with young talent. However, the most important part of that talent was QB TJ Yates who will be out for at least several weeks after injuring his ankle last week that cost UNC a win at home vs. V Tech. In his place, freshman QB Mike Paulus threw 2 INTs and had 23 yards. UNC's win over Rutgers is seeming less and less impressive as Rutgers still has yet to win a game. Miami took out some of their frustration from the Florida loss by destroying Texas A&M and gets to return home where great freshman QB Robert Marve will make his first start. With a defense loaded, and I mean loaded, with future NFL players, the Hurricanes have a big dose of revenge on their minds from last year's loss to UNC.

2* Pittsburgh (-15.5) over SYRACUSE: I'm not going to bore you every week with how bad Syracuse is. However, if you are coach Greg Robinson and your douche of an A.D. (see Dr. Daryl Gross 'the employee of the month') says, "It isn't working out... It's very disappointing … He has some work to do out in front of him," just this week to ESPN, things aren't good. At season's end, Robinson and his one million+ salary will be 8-38 over his four years at Syracuse thanks to Dr. Gross and his brilliant dissertation on how to hire a football coach. Pittsburgh is off a big win over Iowa and watch running back LeSean McCoy have a career day.

A. ROSE

3* Michigan State (-8) over INDIANA: After an opening week loss to Cal, the Spartans have won 3 straight behind the nation's second leading rusher Javon Ringer who lit up Notre Dame for 201 yards last week. Meanwhile, Indiana became the first BCS team to lose to Ball State 42-20 last week, although Nebraska tried its best to earn that distinction at home against the same team a year ago. The Hoosiers gave up 224 yards on the ground to Ball State, exposing a weakness the Spartans will be sure to exploit. Expect Ringer to get 35+ carries for the best football team in Michigan (no offense Central Michigan).

2* GEORGIA (-6.5) over Alabama: The Bulldogs made last week's highly anticipated game at Arizona State look easy by more than doubling the total yards put up by the Sun Devils. The Georgia defense was stifling, allowing 4 net rushing yards to ASU after allowing only 18 to S. Carolina. Alabama looked impressive against a rebuilding Arkansas team last week and faces its toughest test of the season in a night game at Athens on Saturday. Georgia's defense will be the difference in this one.

2* IOWA (-8.5) over Northwestern: Outyarding Pitt by over 100 yards last week wasn't enough to get the Hawkeyes and Kirk Ferentz a win. Coming back home against a Wildcat team that squeaked by Ohio a week ago should give Iowa a boost. Ferentz desparately needs wins against the mediocre teams in the Big 10 to continue to justify his $2.7 million annual salary, which makes him the most overpaid person on earth not named Barry Zito. Speaking of giving Iowa a boost...
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DOUBLE EXTRA LOCK

OHIO STATE (-17) over Minnesota: Buckeye fans prayed. Brutus the Buckeye answered. Brutus granted both Terrelle Pryor and Beanie Wells a start this week. Pryor is off a 4 passing TD game vs. Troy where if he doesn't play the whole second half, they probably lose. Now, with Beanie back to join him, the Buckeyes will be emotionally charged in front of their home crowd. Minnesota is 4-0 this year which can be attributed to a +11 turnover margin against very, very inferior opponents. We have to think Ohio State is itching for a statement game in their Big 10 opener here and should win this game with defense and special teams helping in a big way to cover 17 points.

RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">11:47 AM (6 minutes ago)
The Wannabe Wagerer: Bet Ducks, get made in the shade

from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton

Hey Jenny Slater's Doug Gillett offers betting advice without bias, malice, or credibility. Or, you know, money. It was not only a good day but a good weekend for your humble prognosticator, who had a blast in Arizona and came home to find, thanks to some shrewd picking, he’d earned a new suit, a two-night stay in Tampa and Nikki Meyer's 2004 Mountaineer -- much more desirable than the 2008 Mountaineers, as anyone who saw Bill Stewart’s cavalcade of chaos last Thursday night will attest. And all it cost me was the $1 football card I’d put on East Carolina covering against N.C. State. The lesson as we move on to this week's picks and what I'd be willing to put up based on my confidence in them: if you’re gonna bet stupid (and I can promise you I will, repeatedly) then bet stupid in a way that minimizes the consequences.
The Pick: Oregon (-19.5) at Washington State, 6:15 p.m. ET Saturday
I’m Willing to Bet: Two pairs of Bvlgari sunglasses, one for Mike Bellotti and one for Phil Knight.
Approximate Value: $375 each at Sunglass Hut
You know your season’s not going well when: a) you open with a 26-point drubbing by Oklahoma State; b) you get an apocalyptic nine-touchdown drubbing from not-all-that-great Cal; c) you can’t even stay within four TDs of Baylor; or d) all of the above. Washington State fans, I’m sorry to say the answer is d), not that I needed to remind any of you. Ordinarily I’m very skeptical anytime a team opens as a three-touchdown road favorite in conference play, but keep in mind that 66-3 curb-stomping from the Golden Bears was administered to WSU in Pullman. Oregon is more than capable of blowing off whatever doors might remain on the Cougars, regardless of the specific venue of the Pacific Northwest they have to do it in. There’s no telling what godawful uniform combination the Ducks will be bringing with them to the Palouse, though, so eye protection is key, and I’m willing to bet a couple top-of-the-line pairs that WSU is in for an even longer evening than the spread suggests.
The Pick: Wisconsin (-7) at Michigan, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
I’m Willing to Bet: 50 pounds of 4-year artisanal cheddar from the Bass Lake Cheese Factory in Somerset, Wisc.
Approximate Value: $725
It’s a good thing Rich Rodriguez warned everyone that the transition to his spread offense would be difficult -- at least, he appears to have warned his fan base better than Tony Franklin or Dave Clawson warned theirs -- because the Wolverines are not exactly running at optimum efficiency these days. In fact, on a scale of 1 to 10, ten being the 2004 USC Trojans and one being the [insert date here] Mississippi State Bulldogs, Michigan’s probably no better than a three right now, three and a half if the weather’s nice and Steven Threet is feeling particularly spry. That was bad enough against the solidly mediocre Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who snatched up the ball as fast as the Wolverines could pop it out of their own hands like a bar of soap a couple weeks ago; against a tough Wisconsin defense currently allowing just under 14 points per game, Michigan fans are going to need some comfort food. After Wisconsin covers, I’ll be happy to provide them all they can stand, courtesy of their cross-Lake-Michigan neighbors.

The Pick: Auburn (-6) vs. Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday
I’m Willing to Bet: #34 Auburn jersey signed by Bo Jackson
Approximate Value: $170 on eBay
Ahh, yes, speaking of Franklin and Clawson: Which one do you suppose is in the deeper hole with his respective base of rabid, orange-clad fans? We’ll find out Saturday, but I have a feeling it’s going to be Clawson. The Tennessee O-coordinator doesn’t have a 3-2 victory on his permanent record (yet), but he also doesn’t have much to show for his early efforts, either, other than a 32-point smashing of UAB and a second straight nightmare at the hands of the Gators. Auburn’s defense didn’t have a great second half against LSU last week, but other than that they’ve been solid -- solid enough that, even if their “Spread Eagle” continues to nurse a bum wing, the Tigers will be able to discombobulate the Vols early and then ride their deep power running game to an Auburn cover. That may not be Tony Franklin’s idea of fun, but it’s definitely Tommy Tuberville’s. And unless I miss my guess, it also gets the thumbs-up from Vincent Euripides “Bo” Jackson, the man, the Tiger, the Tecmo Bowl legend.
The Pick: Alabama (+6) at Georgia, 7:45 p.m. ET Saturday
I’m Willing to Bet: One black original-fit piqué polo
Approximate Value: $39.50 from J. CrewIt’s the marquee game of the weekend, “Gameday” is going to be in town, and the Georgia Bulldogs have elected to mark the momentous occasion by making it a black-tie affair -- well, a black-everything affair, since this weekend’s game has been declared a “Blackout” during which the Dawgs will match the crowd by once again rocking their infamous black jerseys. If you’re a Crimson Tide fan, it might worry you a bit to learn that the first two Georgia Blackouts, against Auburn last season and later against Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl, resulted in 45-20 and 41-10 blowouts. But Alabama is far better balanced and more complete than either of those two; they’ve also got enough strength on the lines to give Georgia their bloodiest battle yet for control of the trenches. I still think Georgia has the right mixture of offensive gunpowder to pull off the win, particularly if the players are as geeked up by the black jerseys as they’ve been the last couple times, but no question, UGA's in for too tough a street fight to cover six points. If you’re planning on watching it live, though, you’re going to need to fit in, and a plain, classic, unaffiliated black polo should do just fine.

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RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">1:17 PM (3 minutes ago)
BLOGTOBERFEST: COB-ULAR EDITION

from Every Day Should Be Saturday by Orson Swindle
Blogtoberfest! Because Marky M needs a breather and a Hambrosia fitness shake, available only at select Midwestern GNCs.
TREV! Trev with his Illinois/Penn State preview. You know you want us to do a charity drive where, if you donate enough cash, you get a video of Trev and ourselves singing “What a Wonderful World” with Santa hats on for the holidays.
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Corn Nation handed out their cobs of the week. Mike Sherman should probably work on his “competent/not lost” look on the sidelines. Bill Callahan had a good one, and he wasn’t even competent, so anyone can do it, really.
Bears Necessity has the Dwarves, yo. A correlative, yes, but a good one, and additionally, a reminder that Tom Hansen took a three week vacation during football season, something an SEC commissioner would be drawn and quartered for doing. (Considered: the trip was scheduled long before he actually knew when he would be retiring, etc, yes…but still.)
Absurdity is the norm. Yawn, another physically improbable act caught on camera gone viral.
Jermaine Cunningham, operational. Will start against Ole Miss, barring relapse. Also in there: DT Brandon Antwine is un-banged up, and looking to play around what sounds like midseason.
We get misty. Purdue Pete tugs the heartstrings at BGS.
We’re sure that taught them. Ron Prince really did have his players run sprints at the stadium at 3 in the morning after the loss to Louisville. We’re sure additionally taxing players after they had their asses handed to them on very little sleep taught them…um…that sometimes, for no reason, their coach will have them do something wasteful, stupid, and melodramatic.
The rise of the shitty spread: Noted at the always sage Smart Football: the rise of the shitty spread.

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RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

Adding:

USF -9 (-110)
Va Tech +7 (-110)
Alabama +7 (-115)

Also going to add L-ville but want to see if I can get it at -3 -110.

RJ Esq · Sep 25, 2008

What to watch for: Louisville vs. Connecticut

from Card Chronicle by Mike Rutherford
DocCardsFan's exceptional UConn preview earlier this week has afforded us the opportunity to get a little bit more specific as kickoff approaches.
Here a few items to look for tomorrow night.
1. Louisville stacking the box
Though it's easy to claim that his stats are inflated because of the number of carries he's received or the defenses he's gone up against, Donald Brown is the real deal, a fact Louisville's Orange Bowl champion defense learned firsthand when the then freshman scampered for 122 yards on 21 carries in the 2006 regular season finale.
Though he stands just 5-10, 208, the Cards haven't seen a back nearly as physical as Brown, who'll provide the biggest test yet for U of L's still inexperienced linebacking corps. Given Tyler Lorenzen's recent struggles, Ron English stacking the box with eight or nine guys until the Huskies prove they can move the ball through the air is just about the safest bet anyone can make over the next 24 hours.
It's a shame that Richard Raglin is almost certainly going to be in street clothes, because this is the type of game where he could have thrived. Instead, it will be Bobby Buchanan and Latarrius Thomas who will be called upon to make plays within five yards of the line of scrimmage. I'm also interested to see if English opts to use a guy like Brandon Heath as a sort of safety/linebacker hybrid, or whether he gives the physical challenge (Double Dare) to the likes of Daniel Covington and Josh Wiley.
2. Pressing Cardinal corners
English and Eric Lewis's stated objective last week was to not let Josh Freeman complete deep passes over the heads of their defensive backs. The result was a lot of early six or seven yard completions in front of Johnny Patrick and Woodny Turenne. With Lorenzen's confidence shaken and him unlikely to throw anything outside of single-digit yard slants, outs or stops early in the game, I think it's safe to assume that the corners are going to be far more aggressive tomorrow night.
Through four weeks, the Huskies still don't have one wideout with more than 100 yards receiving. Things have gotten so bad that cornerback Darius Butler has been brought over to help out.
If the Cards have to decrease the amount of attention paid to Donald Brown because of the effectiveness of the UConn air attack, then they're going to be in trouble.
3. Connecticut bringing pressure in the middle
Maybe the biggest thing the U of L offense has going for it right now is that the Husky defense is coming off of a week in which it spent all its time preparing for a spread attack and trying to contain a world class athlete at quarterback. Even with what Louisville has been able to accomplish in its last two games, Scott Lutrus, Lawrence Wilson and Greg Lloyd have to be excited about the prospects of blitzing and run-stuffing as opposed to covering wideouts and shadowing Robert Griffin. The trio of sophomores are about as talented as any group of middle men in the Big East, and Todd Orlando is likely going to let them test a hobbled Cardinal offensive line from the opening series of the game on.
4. UConn's defensive ends vs. Louisville's offensive tackles
The Huskies possess probably the best bookend tandem in the conference with Cody Brown and Julius Williams. The pair were among the league's top 20 in multiple defensive categories at the end of last season, and have already combined for five sacks (Brown three, Williams two) in 2008.
Greg Tomczyk did a tremendous job supplanting the injured George Bussey a week ago, but Kansas State can't lay claim to a threat off the edge as potent as either Brown or Williams. If the duo has their way on the outside and the middle is opened up for the Husky linebackers to do work, then the Cardinal offense could end up looking more like it did on Sept. 2 than on Sept. 17.
5. Josh Chichester getting increased looks
Butler is among the top corners in the conference and sophomore Jasper Howard has had his moments, but they stand just 5-10 and 5-9, respectively. Husky safeties Robert Vaughn and Dahna Deleston are each talented veterans with big plays to their credit this season, but they're only a couple of inches taller than Butler.
While the group is skilled and athletic enough to potentially put the clamps on a guy like Doug Beaumont, there's absolutely nothing any of them can do if 6-8 Josh Chichester runs a solid route and the ball is put in the correct place. With Scott Long and Troy Pascley both appearing to be no-gos, the spotlight will once again shine a bit brighter on the man who can't be checked on the baseline inside Rupp Arena.
6. The utilization of Andre Dixon
While Brown is currently leading the country in rushing, many seem to have forgotten that he didn't even lead his own team in the category a year ago. That honor belongs to fellow junior Andre Dixon, who has been hampered by an ankle injury since late August and has carried the ball just once in '08.
Dixon, who lit Louisville up for 170 all-purpose yards a year ago, played sparingly against Baylor, but Randy Edsall has hinted all week that his production would be increased in the conference opener. Dixon might be the top dual threat back in the Big East, so don't be surprised if Connecticut subtly tries to slip him into the game and burn an over-aggressive Cardinal rush defense by hitting him in the flats or on a middle screen. If you see No. 2 trotting onto the field, it'd probably be wise to keep the blitzing to a minimum.
7. The continuing emergence of the Zack Stoudt jersey
This kid's on the verge of having one of the greatest redshirt seasons in the history of college football.
8. U of L trying to look like a varsity high school squad on special teams
I've given up on hoping to win the special teams battle, and have moved on to the more realistic option of at least keeping it close. Timmy Dougherty appears composed enough to handle placekicking duties from inside 45 yards or so, and I think being removed from the job is really going to help Chris Philpott on kickoffs. If you noticed, his best kicks came after made extra points or field goals, while his shanks or kicks that didn't make it to the 20-yard line came after he'd missed or had a field goal attempt blocked.
UConn has one of the best punters/kickoff men in the conference in Louisville native Desi Cullen, and placekicker Tony Ciaravino has been solid from inside of 40 yards. Butler is an extremely dangerous return man, and going up against a Cardinal coverage unit that has struggled with tackling opposing players carrying footballs and looking to advance toward the endzone should make him that much more dangerous.
9. Let's talk edges
OK, this isn't something to watch for, but if you want to fight about it, well, I'll probably change it to something else because I like to avoid conflict.
UConn run offense vs. U of L run defense
Edge: CONNECTICUT
The Huskies have a senior-laden offensive line and the leading rusher in the country. And if Andre Dixon is healthy, he's one of the top six or seven backs in the conference.
UConn pass offense vs. U of L pass defense
Edge: LOUISVILLE
Lorenzen's thrown just one touchdown to six interceptions so far this year, and he comes into this game with his confidence especially shaken after a particularly rough night a week ago. While Butler's athletic enough to come in and make some plays down the field, the Huskies don't have the receivers to make life easier for Lorenzen against an experienced U of L secondary.
U of L run offense vs. UConn run defense
Edge: LOUISVILLE
This is a tight one, and could be where the game is ultimately won or lost. Victor Anderson and Brock Bolen are each coming off of monster performances, but Kansas State's front seven is a far cry from what they'll be up against on Friday. Still, U of L's men in the trenches are playing with a great deal of confidence, and the guys they have behind them don't need enormous openings to make plays.
U of L pass offense vs. UConn pass defense
Edge: CONNECTICUT
Butler and Vaughn are outstanding, and Deleston is an imposing figure across the middle who's made a pretty smooth transition from linebacker to safety. Chichester is the wild card, and as we've seen over the first three games, he has the potential to make both the amazing play look routine and the simple play look impossible. This is also the first 4-3 defense the Cards have faced since Kentucky, and one that has comparable talent and a comparable commitment to putting pressure on the quarterback. U of L didn't exactly set the world - or Rhode Island - on fire through the air in their season-opener, so them making the proper adjustments to ensure that Hunter Cantwell has adequate time to release the football is paramount.
U of L special teams vs. Connecticut special teams
Edge: CONNECTICUT
They're a crafty bunch. Is "crafty" the right word?
Intangibles
Edge: LOUISVILLE
Nobody has to go to work the next day, so I'd expect nothing less than a packed house out for blood in what most fans are approaching as a revenge game.
Make it happen, people.

RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

Jacquizz Rodgers Proves It's Not the Size, It's What You Do With It

from The FanHouse - NCAAfootball
Filed under: Oregon State, USC, Pac 10

For the Oregon State Beavers, it was one of those magical nights where everything went right at just the right time. For the Trojans, it was yet another upset at the hands of the Beavers and their 5' 7" scatback, Jacquizz Rodgers.

Oregon State dominated the first half, going up 14-0 thanks to Rodgers' amazing ability to elude tackles and gain yards on the ground. The Beavers were tacked on another seven to make it 21-0 after a gutty last-second touchdown pass bounced through the grip of a USC DB and into the hands of Jacquizz's big brother James.

USC seemed to regain all the second half momentum, making the game a one TD affair in the 3rd quarter. Finally, the Beavers seemed to compose themselves and put together a scoring drive -- but that drive culminated with a blocked field goal. Once again the Trojans had a chance to tie the game with just under 4:00 remaining, but Mark Sanchez's pass was intercepted by Greg Laybourn at USC's 30-yard line and returned all the way to the 2-yard line, setting up another touchdown by Rodgers (missed PAT).

USC drove quickly down the field and scored with 1:19 remaining, but with no timeouts remaining was forced to go for the onside kick. No dice. Final: Oregon 27, USC 21. After the jump: thoughts on the big picture.

Jacquizz Rodgers was amazing to watch, gaining 186 yards on the ground and plunging into the end zone for two touchdowns. More impressive than the stats was the fact that USC defenders just could not tackle the tiny running back. Rodgers juked the vaunted USC defense out of their shoes all night and gashed them right up the middle, usually without a fullback to block. It was an incredible performance which made USC look plain silly.

Last week USC fans were hoping Ohio State would look good to bolster their chances for a title bid. No need to concern yourselves with the Bucks any longer, Trojan fans! There is little to no chance of USC making a trip to Miami after this loss, and little just scored another touchdown. Keep in mind that Oregon State was absolutely pummeled by Penn State and lost to Stanford. Given that USC has no quality opponents remaining on their schedule, it's quite possible that we're looking at a Rose Bowl rematch between the Bucks and the Trojans.

Now, several thoughts to consider: 1) We thought the Bucks were really bad when they were destroyed by USC two weeks ago. Now how bad are they? 2) Just how good is Penn State? Really good, maybe. 3) What's the deal with USC vs. Oregon teams? 4) Everyone thought USC was an NFL-lite team going into this game. Did they just have an off-game, or were they overrated?

All very confounding and confusing, but here's one thing that's clear: it's the Big 12 and SEC's game to lose now.

RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">6:06 AM (39 minutes ago)
Friday Headlinin': Trojan nightmare meets the morning after

from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton

• Welcome to your Friday existential crisis. The verdicts are pouring in on USC's flat effort at Oregon State, and clearly the Trojans have hurt the ones that love them most: the Orange County Register gives the offense a 'D', the defense a 'D-minus' and the coaching, more optimistically, a 'D-plus' (the 'plus' is for making it look close in the second half, I guess). The L.A. Daily News' Scott Wolf is livid about recruiting rankings, and who the Trojans don't recruit. Conquest Chronicles is too perplexed to get angry, at least for a couple hundred words.
And on top of the anger, disappointment and humiliation, the defense was beaten up, physically, with assorted injuries to Rey Maualuga, Taylor Mays and Brian Cushing, while Mark Sanchez is having some sort of identity crisis:

"That wasn't us out there," USC quarterback Mark Sanchez said. "I don't know who it was."

If it wasn't USC out there, who -- or what -- was it? Mark Sanchez is blowing my mind, man. So much so that I'm probably coming back to that quote later in the day, just so it will stop freakin' me out.
• Cue annoying theme song for the rest of the weekend. That would "Go Speed Racer, go Speed Racer, go!," in honor of Oregon quarterback Darron Thomas and a pair of teammates who gunned it a little too hard early Thursday morning:

EUGENE -- Three Oregon football players -- including freshman quarterback Darron Thomas -- were involved in a speed-racing crash early Thursday in Springfield that sent two of them to a hospital.
[...]
Pleasant, a redshirt freshman linebacker, was cited by Springfield police for reckless driving and speed racing. Pleasant, 19, and sophomore receiver Jamere Holland, 20, will miss Saturday's game because of injuries suffered in the accident, Bellotti said before Thursday's practice.

Thomas won't be disciplined and still has a chance to start Saturday despite a bruise on his throwing arm. No word on the status of Chim-Chim.
• Don't blame me. I know nothing. Bruno Lecchesi, the sculptor who became a minor laughingstock for chiseling anachronistic Nike swooshes into Ernie Davis' shoes and putting the first black Heisman winner in a modern helmet for the statue Syracuse unveiled earlier this month, wants you to know this is not his fault:

“I was shocked to learn that the material given to me for the helmet and the cleats were mistaken,” Lucchesi said in a statement. “I want to make it clear that I did exactly what I was asked to do and the mistake was not made by me. They told me that they were thrilled with it.”
[...]
“Bruno is a sculptor. He’s not a football player,” Lucchesi’s wife, Ann, said Thursday. “He welcomed anyone to his studio to view it and nobody came. It wasn’t a mistake. He did what the school asked. They were given every opportunity to make any changes they wanted.”

Syracuse: where even the players they commission don't perform like they're supposed to.
• It's nothing a little old-fashioned anorexia can't fix. In more dramatic, uniform-related fallout, Idaho's cheerleader coach has actually resigned in the wake of complaints that the Vandalettes' uniforms were a tad risqué for potato/seperationist cult country -- on some of the girls, more than others. Don't they understand that parading half-naked in front of lecherous crowds is motivational?:

The uniforms helped promote physical fitness, Helm said.
"The kids were real motivated to look as best as they could," she said. "When you walk out there and you feel so proud about what you're doing, that's the goal of the whole thing. The kids had the package."

Helm said some girls were crying when the scanty uniforms were confiscated, which, seriously, get a grip.
Quickly ... When Knowshon Moreno is earning them, not all rushing yards are created equal. . . . Florida may have found its cornerback in Janoris Jenkins, one of those Pahokee rabbit chasers. . . . Jim Tressel wants his offensive line to "let loose" all of a sudden. . . . Suspended Penn State defensive linemen Maurice Evans and Abe Karoma will play against Illinois. . . . Nicely-named Colorado guar Maxwell Tuioti-Mariner is out for the season with a torn ACL. . . . Neither Arkansas nor Texas is really interested in renewing an old SWC rivalry. . . . And Marshall at West Virginia would be a nice in-state rivalry, if any of the players were actually, you know, from West Virginia.

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RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

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</td><td rowspan="3" bgcolor="#cccc99" height="31"><script type="text/javascript">//<![CDATA[ WriteDate(true, true, 0);//]]></script>Friday, September 26, 2008</td><td rowspan="3" valign="middle" height="31">

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</td><td rowspan="3" height="165">Each week I will look at the matchups involving top 25 teams for the upcoming week and give you my forecast on the game. If you read pages 324 and 327 of my National college football preview you will see I have a Power Plays projection for each teams yards for the season. I will give you my computers projection for each game as well and keep track how both do this season. The numbers above the game reflect the Power Plays projected box score for each game. I then write my personal analysis below. I am not a computer and I do not just go by what a computer predicts, so sometimes the forecasts may vary. All games will be tabulated by the Straight up winner of each game. I will also have a couple of extra marquee games or upset selections each week to keep it interesting. Also this year I have added two new things to the forecasts. I am listing the last 11 years matchups between the schools (just click on team names in Blue. I am also providing you with the team page from my FCS preview (over 100 pages) to give you a better idea of the type of FCS (1AA) foe that the top teams are facing each week. *Numbers in Red are actual numbers/ Highlighted numbers are within 30 yds OR 3pts!
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="4" height="109">USC lost the last time they traveled here and Pete Carroll has let them know about it. OSU lost its entire defensive front 7 and was dominated by Penn St. 45-14 on the road. Click here for the individual stats for Oregon St including QB Moevao. These stats are on each team’s individual page and are updated for every team.
PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 38 OREGON ST 14
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</td><td colspan="2" height="81">This game features one of the top teams in the country vs one of the top non-BCS teams. TCU has actually won their last TWO trips to Norman! This should be a great game but The Sooners will wear down The Frogs in the 4Q.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OKLAHOMA 34 Tcu 17
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="109">Ole Miss could easily be 4-0 this year but lost on a last second FG to unbeaten #16 Wake Forest and then outgained Vandy 385-202 last week but lost the game due to turnovers. The Gators are off a solid win over rival Tennessee and won’t bring their “A” game here, so this one could be closer than most expect.
PHIL’S FORECAST: FLORIDA 34 Mississippi 17
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="98">The Bulldogs will be wearing back and are back at home this week. Alabama has looked great so far but this will be their toughest test YTD and The Bulldogs have already survived a couple of tough road tests. I will definitely look at the stats after this one is played and compare them to my computer’s projection which has Georgia with a 432-255 yard edge!
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 27 Alabama 17
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="4" height="109">Arkansas actually had a 232-227 yard edge at the half vs Alabama last week but trailed 35-7. Texas QB Colt McCoy looks even better than he did in 2006 after enduring a sophmore slump last year. Mack Brown is 1-2 SU vs the Hawgs. This used to be one of the top rivalries in the NCAA and I am glad they are playing again this year.
PHIL’S FORECAST: TEXAS 48 Arkansas 13
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</td><td colspan="2" height="67">LSU has won the last 7 meetings between these two by an average of 42-6. This should be more of the same and hats off to LSU for overcoming a major obstacle in their path last week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 38 Mississippi 0
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</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="4" height="95">Michigan played much better than the scoreboard showed vs Notre Dame and are at home and at 1-2 are desperate for a win. Did you know that The Badgers have NEVER been favored over Michigan? The Wolves mailed in last year’s game resting QB Henne and RB Hart but will play their “A” game here.
PHIL’S FORECAST: MICHIGAN 20 Wisconsin 17
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</td><td colspan="2" height="70">Penn St will probably get back their suspended DL’s for this and had a 427-336 yard edge at Illinois last year but lost. They are playing with legitimate revenge and last week against Temple PSU had a 338-32 yard edge at the half.
PHIL’S FORECAST: PENN ST 41 Illinois13
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</td><td rowspan="2" height="48">
</td><td height="7">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="48">
</td><td rowspan="3" height="48">

</td><td colspan="2" height="41">
</td><td height="41">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="2">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="5">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Minnesota
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Ohio St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">USF
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">NC State
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="45">
</td><td height="45">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="5">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="95">Terrelle Pryor gets his 2nd start and RB Beanie Wells returns to the lineup. Minnesota’s offensive line is banged up and will take on one of the top defensive lines in the country. OSU needs to gain confidence before next week’s big showdown with Wisconsin.
PHIL’S FORECAST: OHIO ST 41 Minnesota 13
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="109">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="2" height="109">NC St will be without QB Wilson and will struggle to score on USF’s top-notch defense. Last week I mentioned that USF was playing a “C” game vs a Florida International team in an “A” game opening its new home stadium. USF still led 17-0 before allowing a couple of late scores. Look for a better effort from USF this week.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Usf 30 NC STATE 13
</td><td height="86">
</td><td height="86">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="23">
</td><td height="23">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>

</td><td>

</td><td height="9">

</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="886"><colgroup><col width="156"><col width="345"><col width="3"><col width="33"><col width="345"><col width="3"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td rowspan="4" height="59">

</td><td rowspan="4" height="59">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="48">
</td><td height="48">

</td><td colspan="2" height="48">
</td><td height="48">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="2">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Tennessee
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Auburn
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="45">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Navy
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Wake Forest
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="45">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="123">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="123">Auburn had their opportunities last week but came up short at home vs a very talented LSU team. This week they catch the Vols off an 30-6 loss at home to Florida. I said earlier that the UCLA loss at the start of the year was not that bad as they outplayed the Bruins but that loss looks worse now as UCLA has been buried by a couple of teams that were not thought to be in the Vols’ class.
PHIL’S FORECAST: AUBURN 23 Tennessee 6
</td><td height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="114">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="2" height="123">Navy was down big yardage-wise at the half but Rutgers kept them in the game with a gameplan of running the ball and throwing to the TE when their WR duo of Britt and Underwood would have given Navy trouble. Last year Navy and Wake were tied 17-17 when Navy QB Kaheaku-Enhada went out with injury and Wake rolled to a 44-24 win. This is Grobe’s best team yet and they are now the favorites to win the ACC’s Atlantic Division.
PHIL’S FORECAST: WAKE FOREST 37 Navy 20
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</td><td height="9">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>

</td><td>

</td><td height="18">

</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="886"><colgroup><col width="156"><col width="345"><col width="3"><col width="33"><col width="345"><col width="3"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="51">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="51">

</td><td colspan="4" height="7">
</td><td height="7">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="44">
</td><td rowspan="3" height="51">

</td><td rowspan="3" height="51">
</td><td height="44">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="5">
</td><td height="5">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="54">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Weber St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Utah
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="2">
</td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="49">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Maryland
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Clemson
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="49">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="63">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="63">Interesting battle here as the Utes’ former coach Ron McBride returns to battle the team he took to great heights. Unfortunately for him the Utes have a lot more talent.
PHIL’S FORECAST: UTAH 52 Weber St 11
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</td><td height="1">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="58">
</td><td colspan="2" rowspan="3" height="95">The Terps are a dangerous team and won their last trip here. The computer says that Clemson will win by 15 with a 477-310 yard edge. Clemson has not played up to the computer’s expectations all year, so look for Maryland to keep this close and perhaps pull the upset.
PHIL’S FORECAST: CLEMSON 27 Maryland 20
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</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="20">
</td><td height="20">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="51">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="51">

</td><td colspan="2" height="17">
</td><td height="17">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="4" height="34">
</td><td height="34">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>

</td><td>

</td><td height="3">

</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="883"><colgroup><col width="156"><col width="348"><col width="33"><col width="345"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="2" height="54">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Houston
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">East Carolina
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="51">
</td><td height="51">

</td><td height="51">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="3">
</td><td height="3">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>

</td><td>

</td><td height="2">

</td></tr></tbody></table><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="886"><colgroup><col width="156"><col width="348"><col width="33"><col width="348"><col width="1"></colgroup><tbody><tr valign="top"><td colspan="3" height="2">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="54"><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="2"><tbody><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="12">

</td><td valign="top" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">Fresno St
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr><tr><td valign="top" width="124" height="17">UCLA
</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td><td valign="middle" width="53">

</td></tr></tbody></table></td><td height="2">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td rowspan="3" height="81">
</td><td rowspan="3" height="81">The Cougars have a potent offense and eschewed the FG that would have tied it late last week and then were intercepted in the end zone. EC just had their BCS bubble burst and The Cougars will take this to the wire.
PHIL’S FORECAST: EAST CAROLINA 35 Houston 27
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</td><td height="52">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td colspan="2" height="4">
</td><td height="4">
</td></tr><tr valign="top"><td height="25">
</td><td rowspan="2" height="123">UCLA excels as a home dog winning 6 of the last 9 outright. Fresno will be up for this game vs a bigger in-state school that opted not to recruit the players on Fresno’s team. Last week Toledo handed Fresno 14 points early and only led 21-17 at the half despite a 238-98 yard edge. UCLA has looked horrible in the last two games but did upset Tennessee here at home and the Vols are a stronger team than Fresno.
PHIL’S FORECAST: Fresno St 23 UCLA 20
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</td><td height="98">
</td></tr><tr class="f-sp"><td>

</td><td>

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RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">11:29 PM (7 hours ago)
Late Night Coffee Makes A Cameo

from Burnt Orange Nation by PB @ BON

Beware of Greeks Trojans Bearing Gifts. The college football world is abuzz following Oregon State's stunning upset of #1 USC in Corvallis Thursday night. Though seemingly every other team in or near the Top 10 was mentioned by the ESPN broadcasters as beneficiaries of the Trojans' loss, the only one I didn't hear mentioned was the team which may have benefited the most--Penn State, who defeated the Beavers 45-14 just two weeks ago. (Aside: Read this great post on PSU's hot new HD Formation.)
Even so, if USC fans understandably find themselves feeling sick to their stomachs in the wake of this letdown... they may still be on a very short list of front-runners for a national title game berth. Why? Though no longer leaders of the pack of zero-loss teams, USC shifts now to leader of the pack of one-loss teams. If they win out... and the Big 10, Big 12, and SEC fail to produce two undefeated teams... the Trojans will be sitting in the clubhouse winners of nine-straight, their only loss way back in September.
Best case scenario for USC? Ohio State runs the table in the Big 10 (or at least knocks out Penn State and Wisconsin), the top four SEC teams fail to make the case for a two-team SEC national title game, and neither Oklahoma nor Missouri emerges from the Big 12 unscathed. And there are even more plausible scenarios in which USC winds up in the top two of the final BCS standings. Don't bury 'em yet.

While we're on the subject... Just a quick mention here: Football is a tough game. Things go wrong.
Sometimes all in one half, as USC had happen in Corvallis tonight. Or like in 2001, when Texas fans experienced a first-half horror show against Colorado. Other times, the whole game fails to compute, as in the Trojans' meltdown at home against Stanford a year ago. And so on.
The point? Two points, actually: (1) There are no geniuses in football--just coaches who put their teams in the position to win by recruiting well, hiring good assistants, and being willing to adapt. (2) This is why Mack Brown's biggest detractors (almost all of whom reside outside the fanbase these days, thank God) strike me as out of touch with the modern college game.

Dear Vince, Don't worry. We know better. The last two weeks have been a bit awkward for me as someone whose identity is so frequently associated with Texas athletics in general, and Vince Young in particular. No joke: I've found mysellf sitting in high-pressure, otherwise deeply intense job interviews when a partner will pause to ask, "While I've got you here: What's up with Vince Young?" Hell, even my mother, who follows sports only in the sense that she's sometimes in the same room as my father for SportsCenter, asked me about VY.
I've tried to tell people that there are two (very related) issues: (1) How Vince handled performing poorly and (2) How Vince will respond to this in the long term. On point one, Vince didn't handle himself well. He wasn't meeting his on-field standards, it absolutely killed him, and he lashed out in his own way. But while everyone's focused on point one, I and other Texas fans aren't terribly concerned, because we've seen how Vince handles setbacks. And the same thing that made him react so poorly to his struggles in the season opener is what motivates him to give all of himself to being the best he can be going forward.
We know this. And, probably better than anyone, Mack Brown knows this (read the whole thing):

Brown, who is sitting in the press box next to a giant photo of Young reaching for the end zone in the Rose Bowl, bristles at the notion that Young led a charmed life prior to 2008. And that he was coddled.
Obviously, Brown says, they don't remember 2004.
Young was a redshirt sophomore that year, and he was sacked three times in a 12-0 loss to Oklahoma. The next week, he was booed on his home field against Missouri after throwing two interceptions.
"There were very few people in this city … fans, media … who thought he'd play quarterback and be any good at it," Brown says about Young, who then beat Texas Tech 51-21 and won 19 straight games. "People do not realize he didn't have the perfect little story here.
"So he's been criticized before, he's been booed before, he's been questioned before, and he's lost and played poorly before. And he overcame all that here and handled every bit of it. So anybody who questions his sincerity or his toughness doesn't have any clue who he is."

I have a few more thoughts on this, but I'll save 'em for a full post some other time, in part because I'm headed to bed. I'll get to some Arkansas-related notes tomorrow.
Hook 'em

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RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

Images from last night via tvtanline.blogspot.com:

tvtanline%20-%200925-1955%28TV52%29%5B2%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2000%28TV52%29%5B26%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2013%28TV52%29%5B13%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2019%28TV52%29%5B11%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2056%28TV52%29%5B8%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2057%28TV52%29%5B4%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2118%28TV52%29%5B12%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2125%28TV52%29%5B14%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2129%28TV52%29%5B9%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2152%28TV52%29%5B15%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2206%28TV52%29%5B5%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2252%28TV52%29%5B3%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2305%28TV52%29%5B4%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2314%28TV52%29%5B13%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2316%28TV52%29%5B14%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2317%28TV52%29%5B14%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2320%28TV52%29%5B6%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2322%28TV52%29%5B31%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2324%28TV52%29%5B4%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2325%28TV52%29%5B13%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2325%28TV52%29%5B30%5D.jpg

Love the sign. "Erin Andrews Freaky Time?"

tvtanline%20-%200925-2326%28TV52%29%5B11%5D.jpg

tvtanline%20-%200925-2329%28TV52%29%5B3%5D.jpg

ducks97 · Sep 26, 2008

RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

Thank you, sir, for clearing that up.

ducks97 · Sep 26, 2008

hilarious. nice avatar. lol

RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">9:51 AM (14 minutes ago)
FEDS CALL FOR 38 POINT BAILOUT OF USC

from Every Day Should Be Saturday by Orson Swindle
WASHINGTON, DC (AP) –Doubts over the proposal to bail out the USC Trojan football program continue to slow the progress of the bill through Congress. Both Democratic and Republican lawmakers object to portions of the package, and are asking for more time to allow for further debate on the issue.

“I am ashamed it is taking this long to protect the American economy from a clear and dire threat,” said California Senator Barbara Boxer. The sponsor of the bill, Boxer says the bill would prevent American sports consumers’ already plummeting productivity from “cratering” by saving them the trouble of learning new teams’ names, uniforms, and style of play.
“For years, we have relied on the cornerstones of our sports economy like USC, the New York Yankees, and Bret Favre to help us keep our sports world clear, simple, and easy for the layperson to digest. They have served us well, and we owe them help in return when they struggle.”
The plan would award USC 38 points to be retroactively added to the score of the USC/Oregon State game played this past Thursday night, erasing a 27-21 victory by the Beavers and allowing USC to maintain their status as America’s most powerful and prestigious football team.
“This is a travesty of logic and a misuse of the American political system like I’ve never seen,” said Georgia representative Saxby Chambliss. “Instead of using the power of Congress to change the outcome of football games, maybe we should focus on keeping America safer, and they should focus on finding themselves a KNOWSHON MORENO OR TWO GO DAWGS AS HELL SIC’ ‘EM!”
Chambliss then made barking noise for two minutes straight to no one in particular.
The proposal is the second such bailout package proposed in the history of the United States Congress. The first, the King-Davie bill, was proposed by New York representative Peter T. King to award Notre Dame points to overcome all but three losses suffered during the Bob Davie era at Notre Dame. The bill made it out of uncompetitive voting in the House of Representatives, but was blown out in a landslide vote in the Senate.
Negotiations will continue into the night and throughout the weekend….DEVELOPING….

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RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

RJ Esq · Sep 26, 2008

Adding:

L-ville -3 (-120)

Riding it along with alot of the posters here but this seems to be a pretty evenly divided game. We'll see what happens.

Revenge for last year!

RJ Esq · Sep 27, 2008

Well last night blew. UConn is a very well coached and disciplined team who has discovered an improved QB option. L-ville, on the other hand, is very talented but played an uneven game and killed themselves with bad penalties.

I'm wondering how bad Cantwell was actually hurt. I have a feeling he mailed it in after he got hurt and didn't have heart.

RJ Esq · Sep 27, 2008

Your Saturday in Detail: Run, Badgers, Run

from Dr. Saturday - NCAAF - Yahoo! Sports by Matt Hinton
Thirteen hyper-specific predictions.

• Wisconsin thumps Michigan on the ground for the second year in a row, winning time of possession by at least an eight-minute margin and piling up over 200 yards rushing in a comfortable, two-score victory. Steven Threet continues to inspire modest confidence at quarterback for the Wolverines, but the Badgers shut down Sam McGuffie in the run game (under 50 yards for McGuffie, under 120 for the team) and force field goals on a pair of promising red zone trips by Michigan's offense.
• Alabama shuts down Knowshon Moreno in a low-scoring first half, but Matt Stafford makes them pay with a pair of successful long balls early in the third quarter, opening lanes for a big second half from the Georgia running game. The Bulldogs open up a two-score lead in the fourth quarter and pull away by forcing a Hawaii-esque turnover from John Parker Wilson in must-pass mode.
• Penn State solidifies itself as the early Big Ten frontrunner by scoring 30-plus points and forcing three turnovers in a surprisingly lopsided rout over Illinois. The Lions finish with over 200 yards rushing and passing in the first real challenge for the 'Spread HD,' and JoePa remains on the sidelines for the entire game, surrounded by a wall of secret service-like freshman to shield him from the action.
• Minnesota scores quickly in Columbus and early "game breaks" wonder "What's happening to Ohio State?" until the Buckeyes settle down and control the second half for an uninspiring win. Terrelle Pryor throws for a touchdown, runs for a touchdown and has a greater impact on the outcome than still-gimpy Beanie Wells.
• Clemson is never seriously threatened by Maryland, but quarterback Cullen Harper struggles and is pulled for fan favorite Willy Korn with the game still very much in doubt. Korn plays the rest of the game and leads the Tigers on three scoring drives, deepening what's been up to now a mostly media-driven quarterback controversy.

• Tim Tebow continues to put up only modest numbers, Florida's lead over Ole Miss never creeps out of double digits -- or does so only very, very late -- and Gator fans continue to grumble over the lack of explosiveness from the UF offense despite another strong game from the defense.
• Miami sacks new North Carolina quarterback Mike Paulus at least three times, picks him off at least twice and runs for at least 180 yards en route to a surprisingly comfortable win over the Tar Heels that vaults the Canes into next week's polls. Robert Marve has another solid, efficient effort, putting him among the best quarterbacks in the ACC.
• Off a pair of terrible losses to BYU and Arizona, UCLA bogs Fresno State in a defensive slog, a la the Bruins' opening win over Tennessee, and moves ahead in the fourth quarter. Tom Brandstater leads FSU on a late drive for the win, but L.A. moves forward with some optimism from a more competitive effort against a ranked team.
• Christian Ponder and DeVontrey Richardson cut down on their interception parade but continue to make Florida State wistful and impatient for Drew Weatherford. FSU has more three-and-outs than scoring drives, Colorado gets another solid game from freshman running back Rodney Stewart and the Buffs win another low-scoring game to go to 4-0 as the pressure mounts on Bobby Bowden to pass the reigns to Jimbo Fisher.
• Jonathan Crompton looks like a different quarterback in the first half of Tennessee's make-or-break date with Auburn, and the feisty Vols go into halftime with a slight lead. But the Tigers get the running game going in the second half, regain the lead and force Crompton into at least one ugly turnover late with an unleashed pass rush, dropping UT to 1-3.
• Due for a tough game, Oklahoma struggles to run against TCU but hits a pair of long passes to set up first half scores while shutting out the Horned Frog offense. The Sooners hang on to win "ugly," but without a significant challenge in the second half.
• N.C. State forces a pair of USF turnovers in the first half and pushes South Florida to the limit before falling short of a second consecutive top 20 upset at home. Matt Grothe completes less than half of his passes but eventually throws the winning touchdown.
• Virginia Tech has a near-meltdown on the road for the third year in a row (at B.C. in 2006, at LSU in 2007), falling out of the national consciousness with an ugly loss at rejuvenated Nebraska. Joe Ganz passes for 300 yards, Tyrod Taylor is intercepted twice (and Sean Glennon a third time off the bench) and the Cornhuskers win by three scores.

E.T.G. · Sep 27, 2008

On WMU and USF with ya, best of luck 2day

RJ Esq · Sep 27, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">5:28 AM (1 hour ago)
Rethinking USC's Running Back by Rotation

from Conquest Chronicles by Paragon SC
One thing that stood out last night out was how ineffective the running game appeared. I have been supportive in this approach because for the most part it works when things are clicking…Sanchez getting time in the pocket, the O line blowing holes open and receivers getting separation the whole concept of rotating the backs seems to work fine. When that happens you can get cute with direct snaps or reverses/end-around’s but in a game like we saw last night you need to be consistent in moving the ball forward and chewing up some yards.
After last night I may rethink that position. And I'm not the only one.

For the first two games with multiple running backs scoring multiple TDs in one-sided romps, USC's coaches could take comfort in how well that system has been working for the Trojans.
Now they see the other side to it. OSU gave the ball 37 times to a single freshman who gained 186 yards and scored two TDs.
USC gave it to four guys, none more than seven times, and gained just 86 yards.
The run offense clearly needs re-tooling and maybe some serious re-thinking.

With McKnight in the game last night SC tried to use his special ability to be game changer but OSU saw right through it and pretty much bottled him up.

MJ Davidson has some great observations over at WeAreSC.

Up till now Coach Carroll has maintained that alternating running backs has worked just fine and there has been no reason to change. Well, to my eye, that method simply failed miserably tonight. Of all the backs, Stafon Johnson looked the sharpest and CJ Gable also seemed to make the most of his carries. Joe McKnight did not run the ball well and his fumble late in the second half was very costly indeed. I could not help but wonder, “ why not go with Stafon and see if he can get into a rhythm”? He is the kind of runner who needs touches to help wear down the other guys. It seemed like the plan was to go to McKnight no matter what and the Beavers were certainly ready for him on almost every single play.

As I said Thursday night smash-mouth football was the order of the day. Would it have helped? I don't know, probably not but there needed to be some adjustments to the running game and they really didn't happen.
When I got to work this morning one of my docs made a great point...running backs like get up a lather and get in a groove. As MJD points out last night was the perfect place to let that happen. SC needed to have either Stafon or C.J. just go go go. Again I will ask about Bradford, that would have been the perfect place for him to shine... a little like LenDale that situation was suited perfect for him.
What's wrong with a going back to a power running game that we used to use with LenDale? This whole concept of trying catch "Reggie Bush" type lightning in bottle a second time has clouded the judgment of both Carroll and Sarkisian. Its almost like they are trying to relive the past when Reggie was here. Carroll and Sark have gone out of their way to recruit all of these top backs yet now they won't use them.
People talk about USC using a lot of pro-type sets, yet I can find nowhere in the NFL where anyone rotates backs like this. Its fine when it works but right now it is not working and everyone now see how to defend it. We get it, Carroll loves McKnight but he is playing with fire in the area of losing recruits or even the running backs he has if he continues to "showcase" McKnight not being effective. How many times have we heard the pundits say that the back-ups that we have could start on a lot of other teams? I wouldn't be surprised if we lost a back or two in the offseason to test that theory. And why not? Might as well take your chances catching on with another team and really having an opportunity to be the featured back instead of hoping and praying to crack the rotation. The are other ways to compete out there.
How is it that the O line was effective at making room for Stafon to run but they couldn't make any for McKnight. To me the answer is simple...when you run straight ahead between the takles the blockers only have to move opposing defenders a relatively small distance for the RB to run straight though. Sure the bigger the holethe better just like Nebraska last year. With McKnight jukin' and jivin' all over the place it it means the lineman have to stay with their blocks longer to cgreat some room and that isn't always going to work in our favor. The O line regressing on this game is a whole other issue for another time.
Dammit I love Pete Carroll and he has done for SC. I am wiling to give hm a certain amount of slack on some thngs as he has earned it but he really needed to think outside of his conventional wisdom on Thursday when the standard game plan didn't work. I just didn't see the necessary adjustments.

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RJ Esq · Sep 27, 2008

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</td><td class="cc c">11:25 PM (7 hours ago)
So that sucked

from Card Chronicle by Mike Rutherford

You simply cannot squander opportunities this great when you're a program in flux. Louisville was one quarter and-a-half of average play away from being the first team in the Big East to notch a conference win, doing so at the expense of a squad that defeated them in heartbreaking fashion a year ago, and poised to be 5-1 when South Florida rolls into town on Oct. 25. As it is the Cards are again starting league play a game in the hole, 2-2 overall against a soft schedule consisting of nothing but home games, and just under a month away from being able to walk on the field in something other than a no-win situation.
Basically, we're exactly where we were three weeks ago.
I think the fact that all of us were so eager to be excited about Cardinal football in mid-autumn again made tonight that much harder to stomach. It would certainly explain why the Kragthorpe bashing on the way out of the stadium was more intense than it was after last year's Syracuse game or this year's Kentucky game. We're talking serious, serious hate being tossed about from all sides.We're talking calls for the return of John L. It was the closest I've ever been to a pitchforks and lighted torches situation.
Just a disastrous night on so many levels.
More tomorrow.

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Timh · Sep 27, 2008

GL today RJ.

RJ Esq · Sep 27, 2008

Adding:

LSU -24 (-110)
Houston +11 (-110)
Auburn -6' (-110)

Huge card for me and these last adds I hope go at least 2-1.

RJ Esq · Sep 27, 2008

Timh said:
GL today RJ.

Thanks.

RJ Esq · Sep 28, 2008

RJ Esq said:
2005-06 CFB Record
77-71, +0.52 Units

2006-07 CFB Record
70-48, +51.29 Units

2007-08 CFB Record
53-52, -33 Units

2008-09 CFB Record
18-10-2 +8.6 Units

3-3-1 last week losing the juice.

Picks
Bowling Green -3 (-110) W
Cincy -9' (-110) L
UNC +7 (-110) W
Miami -7 (-120) Buying off UNC after Yates info became official L
Arkansas +28 (-115) L
WMU -3 (-120) W
USF -9 (-110) W
Va Tech +7 (-110) W
Alabama +7 (-115) W
L-ville -3 (-120) L
LSU -24 (-110) L
Houston +11 (-110) W
Auburn -6' (-110) L

Leans
Rice -19

7-6 for the week but could have been 6-3 if not for the late adds. Oh well.

RetroVK · Sep 28, 2008

Good week , rj.

Don't forget the ville game should have been a ncie win instead of loss too. nice capping.

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