CFB Week 3...

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
I haven't been posting as much as I like; I know it's chicken-shit to say-so after the fact, but I had a stellar week 2. I am somewhat proud of this, because I usually get my ass handed to me in week 2. Time is a lot shorter for me DURING the season; therefore, if I do post, the writeups aren't much. So far for week 3:

Michigan +7 over Notre Dame - Michigan comes to play here, as they opened up with Vandy and one of the Michigan directional schools. I'm sure a lot of work has been put into this game prior to this week. The Irish, meanwhile, had to gear up for both Ga Tech and Penn St. NC Weiss seems to know all the buttons and he definitely scares me in this game. Just can't pass on a equally talented Michigan team getting a full TD. I'm not even gonna look up the trends; I'm willing to live or die with this bet right off the top.

Illinois -3 over Syracuse - great dichotmy last week as the Illini got blown out at Rutgers and Syracuse hung at home with #14 (w/o their QB). Illinois is more talented than Syracuse, they are at home and finally, this is a great spot for them coming off a difficult road loss; meanwhile, the Orange surely are aimed for a letdown after a tough home loss and now having to hit the road...onto a surface they are unaccustomed (I think Illinois is grass...doing this from memory).

I will likely add Va Tech -34'; Duke is another lousy team off of a close loss that has to hit the road for a 2nd straight week. Hokies were not impressive vs NC with only 9 FD's; Beamer will want to get the QB's some confidence before the meat of the conference schedule hits.

More to come later in the week.
 
Horses: Good to see you posting, buddy.

Illinois plays on carpet, it's an "Astro-Play" surface... but your part up to the ellipses (ending with "hit the road") was enough to convince me that Illy is the right side.

VT same deal, but they got outplayed in my mind; that score was deceiving...
 
Rex, totally agree; NC at least played them even on offense/defense. Think Beamer will want to lay one on here. Duke is not unaccustomed to losing by this margin.

Thanks for the info on the Illini playing surface; didn't have the info handy at work.
 
horses, here's another reason to play Illinois for you, the #1 ATS power ratings in the nation last season have the line at Illinois -18.5!!! I love the play and will probably be on it myself!
beer.gif
 
Sooner, my beginning of the year power ratings have Illinois as about a 12 to 13 point favorite; too much reaction to last week's results. Thank you for the feedback, and that is good to know.
 
bull's coatailing rule # 3

if your pick happens to fade horses' pick, pass on the game.

I saw Illinois vs Rutgers and they really are bad. I was set to take the points in this basement brawl, but I guess I'll pass. Just can't take Illini after what I saw and I think Syracuse coach is much better than Illinois counterpart.
Agree with Michigan play :shake: I'll be with you.

I don't understand why people continually bet against VPI. They are gold for 2/3 of the season almost evry year. A lot of people got stung last week. Not me. I had VPI in two winning ML parlays. I just don't play 34 pointers myself, but horses has the right answer to this one. Go for it.:cheers:
 
Taurus, thanks man, I am honored; I think you'll be glad you passed, but we'll see.

I really liked North Carolina last week. Then I looked up this little gem: Va Tech is 21-4 ATS the 1st 5 wks of the year, the L5Y. I thought NC was great value in that game, but that was a trend I wasn't going to buck. Fact is, as long as the Hokies think they still have a shot at the MNC, they are difficult to bet against, as they are seemingly always looking to gain recognition by killing teams. After their initial loss, they always seem to letdown for a couple weeks. You can almost set your watch by it on a year-to-year basis. Probably more than you wanted hear on the Gobblers.
GL.
 
Made this line Illinois minus 1

so feel the number is right on the money.

Good luck,
Paul
 
horses - talk to me all you want about the gobblers. They are in 'my conference ' here on the east coast. And they have been money in the bank for a long time.
Let's go, wolverines..
 
horses,

I'd like to hear your opinion on SDSU as well...may join you on Michigan as well...
 
horses - GL to you this week bro. I'm already on Michigan, and will likely join you on Illinois. How do you think the Aztecs will do this week bud?... :shake:
 
Something I thought of during the Charger game last nite...Rivers made his first start of his career, after two years in the system, on the road last nite. Same thing this week for the Aztecs...QB Mougey makes his first start, and it's on the road...and after 2 years in the system (though it's a different system w/Long). Mougey was former HC Crafts highest touted recruit, and by all accouts, is an extremely competitive individual. I'm not sure how he will play in Camp Randall, but I am rather confident the environement will not intimidate him at this stage of his development.

I think most people would agree that Wisconsin is a solid football team year and year out; they don't usually have the depth of athletes Ohio St, Mich or even Penn St have, but are solid along the lines. If an (read: inferior) opponent can hang along the line of scrimmage with them, they can usually stay in the game, as Wisconsin generally doesn't have a lot of big play capability. This year is no exception with extremely young receivers. Their Bowling Green rout doesn't look that great, after the Falcons went to OT with Buffalo. The Aztecs are off of a bye and HC Long is pleased with the progress, during the bye, of the OL coming off of a promising 2nd half vs UTEP. The Aztecs front 7 is much improved from last year and should be able to standup to the Badger run game.

Summary: SDSU always plays well on their forays into B10 territory, last years result notwithstanding against an excellent Buckeye team. In that game they only got 3 FD's and the D wore down; I think Mougey and company should be able to stay on the field long enough to gain the defense some rest. Punter Hughes seems recovered from his foot problems and should return to last years form. I am strongly considering the Aztecs >14 points; I thought the line would be closer to 10.
 
Made this line at Whiskey minus 10

and took 16 when Pinny posted their opening numbers Sunday afternoon.IMHO, the Badgers just don't have the skill athletes to cover such a lofty number, plus believe the Aztecs can burn a little clock with Hamilton and the ground game.Will be interesting to see how Mougey plays. He's a good-sized guy with 4.53 speed who benches 225X19 and has a 33-inch vertical. Pretty good athlete sounds like.Good luck,Paul
 
pstone said:
and took 16 when Pinny posted their opening numbers Sunday afternoon.IMHO, the Badgers just don't have the skill athletes to cover such a lofty number, plus believe the Aztecs can burn a little clock with Hamilton and the ground game.Will be interesting to see how Mougey plays. He's a good-sized guy with 4.53 speed who benches 225X19 and has a 33-inch vertical. Pretty good athlete sounds like.Good luck,Paul

Agree with this assessment. I also had SDSU +10. Would like to see this line go higher.
 
IMHO, feel pretty strongly that

number will go down as we get closer to Saturday.

If you like SDSU, my advice would be to take the points now.

Good luck,
Paul
 
pstone, yes, that is all true about Mougey; definitely a specimen.

Glad you and RJ are in agreement here; sometimes I feel like I have blinders on when I analyze Aztec games.
 
Bull, it's worth a lot; like I said...I need people to back me up on SDSU, because I may have blinders on.

Now...if I could just get Fondy in here and get his take...
 
Sunday afternoon is when I do most of my "playing"

Everybody has their own "process," but my approach is based on developing solid power ratings; making a better number than the book; and then being "first in line" when the buffet opens.

Betcris and Pinnacle are two of the first to put their numbers up Sunday and do so between 3:30 p.m and 4 p.m. Pacific typically.

Much like being at the Stardust on a Sunday night when they would put up the "first numbers" several years back, I sit at the computer and just starting firing away as I compare my number to theirs.

Beginning at 3:57 p.m. Pacific Sunday, I played San Diego State plus 16; Central Florida PLUS 2; Michigan plus 7; Miami (Fla) plus 6; Nevada minus 2; and Arizona State minus 7 1/2. A couple of hours later, I played Auburn minus 2 1/2. All these plays were primarily based on the "number" and not any preference to a side.

While typically getting the best of the number, I also played Maryland plus 14 1/2, guessing wrong that it might drop to 14.

Good luck,
Paul
 
Similar approach to you, Paul.

Horses and I are out here in San Diego. Saw your reference to Pacific time. Where are you at on the WC?
 
I'm actually based in Texas

east of Dallas in Tyler.

However, I typically make three trips to Vegas during the CFB season (Always make the opening weekend, had a great time this year).

I knew Horses was in Cali and also that Pinny expresses its time in Pacific, so when in Rome act as the Romans?

Good luck and look forward to more of your insight,
Paul
 
Tyler--Home of Earl and Matthew.

Very nice part of Texas.

GL this week and make sure those Horns get back on track against Rice.
 
Pags, post #13 in this thread...that's all for now, but it's only tuesday; I am fairly confident this game will be on my card this week, though.
 
What about SDSU? Anybody know anything about them?

I like one of your plays but I really like the opinions and thoughts.

Keep spanking that bookie! :spank:
 
Back to the San Diego St @ Wisconsin game this weekend:

Looks like Hayden Frye will be attending this game, as both Long and Bieliema (sp?) worked under him at Iowa. This actually has nothing to do with my pick, but just thought I would mention it.

This spread is starting to juice downward...so I am going to play this game now:

San Diego St +14 over Wisconsin - So Wisconsin begins the season only laying 10 points to a Bowling Green team that needs to go OT at home to beat sorry Buffalo; now they go home and lay 14 to a team that travels pretty well...esp into Big 10 country. Long is calling this a 'map' game, cuz it's the one game on their schedule that can really garner this team some attention. By all accounts, they have had solid practices during the bye week and Long is pleased with the way the OL is progressing. Like I said previously, Mougey's youth may be an issue, but he appears to a poised young man. Badger QB Stocco is underrated, but his receivers are young and I think the Aztec secondary, being their strength, can hold up in a lot of man-to-man coverage, allowing them to bring a safety into the box to stand-up to the run game. Wisconsin has some talented backs, but at this point in time, Aztec RB Hamilton will be the best runner on the field. Not seeing a lot of points scored here...so I will take the 2 TD's.
 
horses said:
Bull, it's worth a lot; like I said...I need people to back me up on SDSU, because I may have blinders on.

Now...if I could just get Fondy in here and get his take...

Sorry buddy, have my LSAT (entrance exam for law school) in two weeks, so I've been studying for that here. Doesn't give me a whole lot of time to do much else. Anyways, I told myself I'd take Wisky small at -14 or less... Game opened at me at -14, so I took them. As the week has gone on and I thought of it a bit more, I'm feeling more and more comfortable with a play on SDST, especially +7 1H as I think Wisky may have to come from behind. Good Luck!
 
Fondy, thanks for the input.

...and more importantly, keep up the LSAT studying; I wish you well on that.
 
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