CFB Week 3 plays




redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML record: 5-10 +2.72 units

This week's bets so far:

Clemson +180
Western Michigan +310
Ole Miss +140

...lookin forward to garfather's thread, but I may slow down this week.

Spread/Total record: 28 - 11 - 2, 68%, +21.37 units
and I won my teaser. Yay.

This week's bets so far:
Some of these, I will try to middle. We shall see how that goes...

UWV -14 (-105)
Minny -40 (-105)
Duke +35 (-105)
West Michigan +9.5 (-105)
Rutgers -17 (-105)
Boise St -8.5 (+102)
Michigan +7 (+102)
TT -2.5 (-101)
SoMiss -3 (+109)
Mizzou -13.5 (+100)
Southern Cal -20 (+103)
UGA -19 (+109)
Arizona St -10 (-105)
Tenn +3.5 (-102)
Uconn -5.5 (+109)
Texas -29.5 (-104)

LSU @ Auburn Under 40.5 (-105)
Tulane @ Mississippi St Under 40 (-105)

If anyone would like to discuss my (non)thinking on any of these, I'd be glad to hear whatever you have to say. I don't see so much I like in MLs this week. Don't understand why Ole Miss is a dog. Clemson plays Florida St tough every year, and I think the Tigers just might be the better team this once...and I *will* win one of these fading UVA, goddamnitall...

I feel cheated out of Wyoming in week 2. It's weird. I made more money in Week 2, but I was a lot happier after week 1. I really think it was what I think is an unfortunate UNDERperforming of my ML dogs. Yes, I am typing this with a straight face, and I mean it. Wyoming beat shit all over UVA. UVA wins off wyoming missing a GD PAT in OT. BLOODY RAT FUCK.
:hairout:

Hope you guys are winning some money.:shake:
 
So you're thinking Southern Miss is a good bet over your Wolfpack this week, bearde?
 
SoonerBS said:
So you're thinking Southern Miss is a good bet over your Wolfpack this week, bearde?
Click to expand...

fuck yeah. NCSU on the road against a semblance of a defense, are you kidding me? NCSU will have less than 200 yards total offense. Marcus Stone did better this weekend...for a quarter. But I'll fade his ass all year. NCSU is no Mizzou against SoMiss, and this game may spark Southern Miss's schedule.

Stone will be good for 2 INTs. NCSU running backs will be good for at least 2 fumbles. Southern Miss will likely capitalize. Eagles should win by at least a TD.

....................or I could be completely wrong.

:smiley_acbe:
 
Passing: Marcus Stone, 16-31, 209 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

this represents a career good day for this guy passing. I doubt he'll repeat. I mean, when gargamel catches the smurfs, do you bet that he'll actually get to eat them?
 
Man Texas is going up. I predict a blow out.

Something funny about the Texas game, the OC for Rice is Major Applewhite. Maybe he'll have some inside info about Texas' D ;)

I see Texas scoring alot and often and the D being about as pissed off as a D can get. Chizik is a mean SOB.

I also like atm to cover, they are running the scores up for some much needed respect.(If that's what you get playing cakes)
 
Last edited:
Ichabod said:
Man Texas is going up. I predict a blow out.

Something funny about the Texas game, the OC for Rice is Major Applewhite. Maybe he'll have some inside info about Texas' D ;)

I see Texas scoring alot and often and the D being about as pissed off as a D can get. Chizik is a mean SOB.

I also like atm to cover, they are runinng the scores up for some much needed respect.(If that's what you get playing cakes)
Click to expand...

Applewhite will be somewhat familiar with the Texas O because Greg Davis was his OC. But they did not run the zone read while he was there.

Applewhite also is unfamiliar with Chizik's system from the playing days. Wasn't there at the time.

The teams are plenty familiar with each other, so no big deal. Think Texas needs to prove that they can play much better and makes an example of Rice before Big XII play starts the following week against Iowa St. and then SHSU before OU.
 
I was joking about Applewhite. He won't be any factor.

I think Rice gets blown out to the point where I may play more than 1 unit.

New scheme for Rice's O is what does it for me.

Also to all the Buckeye fans ya'll played great on Sat night. Good luck this season hope Austin treated ya'll well. Take it easy on the couches though.
 
Those are the type of games UGA NEVER COVERS. Last time we played uab at home they should have won with a backup qb if it wasnt for a dropped pass in the endzone.
 
GODDAMNIT. It HAPPENED. It fucking happened. I go to sleep, the line is -27 (-115). I want -27.5 (-105). I'm not usually a number whore (spend my time on juice), but I like this under 28. Not so much at or above 28.

FUCK my decision to sleep.

:spank:

BAD REDBEARDE
 
Wasn't that game while the QB was hurt LY and they didn't have this backup. Unless UAB shows up with surprising improvements, I'll be surprised if UGA doesn't roll them into a shitheap.

but hey, if I can buy my way out of it I may just do that.
 
I did get to buy out of Tenn. I don't like those guys on defense benig gone...and i didn't know they were out when I made my first bet. I got lucky with

Florida -3.5 (+104)

And I also went ahead and grabbed

Okie St -28 (-105) for 2 units.
 
Hell of a start to the season, Red... Keep it up this week bro. Good points about the UT defenders being out. Bad deal for me trying to adjust my line and come up with the right price lol...
 
well, maybe this is a game to lay off this week, rexy. thansk for the well-wishes. I hope I can keep it up. I'll sure try. I Love being able to cross lines in a positive manner like I did with tenn/FLA.

Even just a couple dollars per hundred is a good thing, you know?

adding

Nevada -3 (+102)
 
Navy +3 (+100)
UL Monroe +24.5 (-102)

I hate that I have so many. But it's seemed to have been working.
 
Keep doing whats working bro.

GL this week. Going to look over the SoPiss-NCSU game again.
 
Ball St +15 (+104)
Ball St +530

You folks have convinced me that purdue couldn't stop a team of US passing the ball down the field...much less a CFB team. Should be a good cover, and I wouldn't doubt a SU win. Sure hope so.
 
okay, here's an example of the teasers I do. Feel free to tell me how much of a sucker bet it is, but I've made a helluva lot of money with these 21pters and the 16pters during basketball. The bball ones you can even leave open for 7 days from beginning to end.

You can get them at betdon.com. yes, betdon sucks, but I've never had a payout problem, and that's ultimately what matters. These picks are something different from just picking a side. Suddenly one might consider taking Temple +62.5 for example.....

This is a 21 pt teaser, 14 teams. it pays -120.

West Virginia +4.5
Duke +56
Western Michigan +29.5
Rutgers +5.5
Michigan St +23.5
Michigan +27
Arizona St +11
Clemson +26
Missouri +7.5
Texas A&M -6.5

Baltimore Ravens +9.5 (against the raiders. oh, how ugly it will be...)
Indy Colts +8 (houston. yeah, let's see Horn's DE buddy Mario Williams, now)
SF 49ers +24 (home dogs almost never lose teased 21 - except GB this year....and, well, last year)
Chargers +9.5 (this defense should crush the titans with no QB...)

If you haven't already, you now officially have cause to lose all respect for me. =)
 
I think VT grabs a 25 or 30 point win, and doesn't worry about running it up against the dukies. The ones that scare me a little are the shorter numbers...rutgers and Arizona st. If they have a bad day, that could bust it. *shrug* it could happen.

life goes on. =)
 
Sorry about that bro. Didn't mean to bust your balls. Not my style at all!!!

:drinking:
 
concerning the clemson wager (or fade in your scenerio)...as you might or might not know, i'm tailing bar this weekend; typically i will find many from solid cappers here and apply my cbb system to the picks to narrow them down, but this week i'm not and i'm scared...the clemson line is getting beat down like a fucking tard and i got them at -2! are you kidding me?!? last time i saw something like this was the iowa game last weekend (which i didnt post but cashed)...so, long story short, i think its a wise decision fading clemson this week
 
shit

bearde- Been agreeing with you up till now, but this week one of us is going to get killed.:hairout:

Just hope it's not both of us.
 
U have the Ole miss ML but the miami one? Interesting. By the way do u remember talking ml's with me in the nba..
 
abcs, I think I do. I found covers less useful so I would typically post my plays, write a little something, maybe check macdamn's thread, and then watch the games. There were enough asshats that just wanted to shit on you or drop a clover in your thread that I largely ignored my thread except for once or twice per day for a few minutes.

THIS forum I damn near ccan't leave...heh.

I have several thought processes. The first one is, do I think the team can actually win the game, and the answer with Miami FL this week, frankly, is nuh-uh. I'm more than willing to be wrong...but I want more than what that one offers for that bet.

I think Ole Miss might just be my big brain fart of the week. Everyone else has more respect for Kentucky than I do, and I expect to find out I'm wrong about it. We'll see.
 
red, im just slightly retarded, dont my my previous post...however, you had an insane week 1...according to the LAW of averages, i wish ya luck this week!!
 
kay, KK. I always like both Clemson and NCSU (cept this year) against Florida St. Both those coaches seem to have Bobby's number. (Hmm. Wonderwhy)

I realize Clemson has some issues with losing players, but after last week, I think that team'll be pissed off, and with FSU's narrow victories over Miami and then Troy, the noles' attitude can't be entirely healthy. I do think Clemson has the better offense, and FSU likely has the better defense. We'll see how the OvsD competition comes out. If FSU can keep Clemson's scoring down (or get defensive/ST scoring), then the noles have a shot. If Clemson can score 24 or 30, I think the noles will have a helluva time keeping up with enough scoring of their own.

obviously if Clemson's D manages a score that improves the Tigers' chances 500%.

or I could be completely wrong.

I realize the law of averages. This is likely why I'm not as excited this week as I was the last two. However, with scant few exceptions (like UGA and Ole Miss), I'm pretty confident this week in my picks...especially the ML dogs this time. I was pretty damn demoralized with em last week, actually, despite the success. I coulda easily gone 4-3 and had a SHITLOAD of profit instead of a crapload. Such is the way of things.
 
abcs, I guess you think Miami has a shot at beating Louisville? I pretty much don't. I don't see how the canes can possibly generate comparable offense, and in order to compete with Louie this year, teams are going to have to score at least 60% of their possessions. Louie may not score every time, but you know they'll put up a lot of TDs. 5 or more even against this D.

GL with your bet.
 
oh, and I may well yet put money on Louisville on Saturday. I'm thinking that line might just go down some more for me. If not, well, I have far too fucking many plays this week, anyway.

but history notwithstanding.....I'll be shocked if Miami wins.

GL
 
redbearde- haven't quite got there yet.
Under strong consideration:
Toledo
BYU
Louis
Cincy
Mich St ML
Mich
SDSU
Ball
UK
FIU
Okie St
Colorado
Nevada
Stanford
plus 4-5 1-AA games.
 
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