CFB Week 15, Bowls, FCS

[Timh]

YTD Record
Sides 33-37-2 -6.63u
Totals 32-29 +1.45u
2H Sides 0-0-1 +0.0u
2H Totals 2-2-1 -0.15u
Parlays 0-3 -2.5u
Team Totals 2-0 +2.0u
Futures 3-0, +2.8u
Teasers 5-2 +2.3u
Total 77-73-4, -0.73u

Had a nice 7-1 WK 14 and hope to keep it moving in the right direction for bowl season. GL fellas.

FCS Playoffs
351/352 Weber St./JMU under 42 1*
354 North Dakota St. -20 1*
357 Kennesaw St. -1.5 1* and +4 -105 1*
362 NDST -20.5 -112 1*
367/368 NDST/JMU under 47 1*

FBS Bowls
209/210 MTSU/Ark St. over 62 1.5*
205 Oregon -7 -115 1.5*
202/205 ML Parlay Troy, Oregon -116 1*
215/216 Temple/FIU over 56.5 1*
218 Ohio -6.5 -107 1.5*
220 Wyoming -3 +105 1*
222 SF -2 1*
224 SDST -6.5 -118 1.5*
227/228 Houston/Fresno St. under 51 1*
Utah -6.5 -115 1.5*
229/233 ML Parlay Utah/Kansas St. -113 1.5*
233/234 Kansas St./UCLA under 59 -115 1*
237/238 BC/Iowa under 46 -105 1*
276 Arizona -2.5 -115 1*
240 Texas +3 -113 1*
244 Oklahoma State -5.5 -115 2*
242 Navy ML -120 1*
241/242 VA/Navy over 51 1*
Tease 244 Ok St. Even, 266 Michigan -1.5 1.5*
Tease 245 Stanford +9, 278 Wash St. +8.5 1*
247/248 Texas A&M/Wake Forest over 65 1.5*
ML Parlay 248 WF/249 NC State +104 1*
255/256 USC/Ohio St. 2H under 29.5 -115 1*
257 Louisville -7 -105 1.5*
Tease 257 Lou -1, 266 Michigan -1.5 1*
259/260 Iowa State/Memphis over 67.5 -116 1*
261 Washington +3 -109 1*
Tease 263 Wisconsin -1/2, 266 Michigan -1.5 1.5*
268 Auburn -10.5 -117 1.5*
269/270 LSU/ND over 51.5 -113 1*
ML Parlay Michigan, Auburn, ND, Alabama 1/5.11
271/272 Georgia/Ok under 62.5 +100 2*
Parlay Georgia -2.5 and Georgia under 62.5 1/2.85
273 Alabama -3 125 2*
151/152 Alabama/Georgia under 46 1*
151 Alabama -3 -120 1.5*
151 Alabama 2H -5.5 1*

 

[TahoeLegend]

Timh, are you the one who used to post FCS information on a regular basis. I was trying to remember who used to do it, but can't recall.

They posted a line for James Madison -12 Weber State (41)

Any thoughts on that one?

 

[Timh]

Tahoe no, Bull is the resident FCS expert. Though I did start a discussion thread to today on FCS Playoffs with some stats and other info. My initial lean on JMU gm was under. They released at the bigger books this morning and JMU side and under the total have been drilled. Total starting to come back up now.

 

[captjohn67]

Good luck Tim ( clover)

 

[Timh]

Kennesaw St. -1.5 1*

 

[Timh]

351/352 Weber St./JMU under 42 1*

 

[cashflowmatters]

GL on the action today & always

 

[Timh]

Add Kennesaw St. +4 -105 1*

 

[TahoeLegend]

Bad weather for the Army/Navy game.

Snow and cold throughout the game, temp right at freezing level, but wind is only 7-8 mph.

How do you think that affects the total, Timh?

I liked over the same as you, but CBS Sports Channel is live from the stadium up until game time and it looks messy enough it will probably cause a few bad kicks and punts, maybe affect ball handling a little.

 

[Timh]

Tahoe - Sorry for late reply, I never liked over in Army/Navy think you have that confused but anyway didn't play it when I missed the original opener. I was tempted to play it on game day with the bad weather, but laid off. Incredible they played that game with no turnovers. GL on the bowls.

209/210 MTSU/Ark St. over 62 1.5*

 

[Timh]

205 Oregon -7 -115 1.5*

 

[Timh]

As Ducks' new head coach, Mario Cristobal says he is 'all in with Oregon'
http://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/index.ssf/2017/12/as_ducks_new_head_coach_mario.html

 

[bull]

Interesting read, dr tim

 

[RetroVK]

That SHSU line seem quite high to you, or am I a nutso?

 

[captjohn67]

That SHSU line seem quite high to you, or am I a nutso?

SHSU last game of the year when they meet upper echelon (all losses)

2016 James Madison 65-7

2015 Jax St 62-10

2014 North Dakota St 35-3

2013 SE Louisiana 30-29

2012 NDSU 35-3

Obviously this means nothing for this year, but they have a horrible track record in the playoffs when it's time to beat a heavyweight. I think NDSU will score damn near every time they have the ball. Obviously not speaking for Tim, just saw your post and thought I'd throw my 2 cents in.

And SHSU ranks 107 in rush D, 121 in pass D (which is typical of them), plays in a questionable conference, and lost arguably their biggest game of the year to Central Arky 41-30

 

[RetroVK]

But their Defensive line is better than most years, NDSU run game is not as good as most years, and they did struggle some with SDSU pace.

 

[captjohn67]

NDSU is rushing for 267 per game and while they did give up 329 passing yards to SDSU, the 5 TO's obviously kept them from posting many more points. I just have little respect for The Southland ( but in fairness, there's only one MVFC) . Central Arky lost at home to a ho hum N Hampshire team, tho TO' s were a huge part of that game as well. Hell, I don't have a wager on the game so I'm certainly not telling you who to play, and 21 is a helluva a lot. GL, think I'll just watch and maybe play a halftime. I'd love to see Sammy beat them

 

[Timh]

I like to look at predictors and usually check Massey, Sagarin, Keepers, Dolphin etc. for their info. Massey has 24/66, Sagarin 27/68, Keepers 26.5/60 and Dolphin (which always seems lower than the others) has 19/60.5. NDST has the best YPA passing numbers of any of the quarter finalists 9.0 and SHSU has the worst def YPA at 6.9, and also SHSU not good stopping the run as Capt mentioned above. I just think that SHSU is going to have a very difficult time stopping them and when they fall behind will have to abandon the running game, which should allow NDST to really pin their ears back and come hard wit the pass rush. I can't get past the comparative schedule strengths in this one and feel like even though this is a different year etc., that the same step up in class mentality applies and this is a daunting task for SHSU on the road in the dome. I think I prefer side play on NDST overall.

 

[RetroVK]

I just don't think this version of NDSU was as good as past versions and they suffered injuries this year making that even more apparent. 464 yards vs Wofford last week doesn't impress me in the context of having held the opponent to 177 yards. Now that is a running clock and Wofford has a better defense than SHSU but that really isn't spectacular offense. I don't think the NDSU pass offense is going to be tougher than what SHSU sees in practice, though I admit that NDSU pass offense is predicated on the opposing defense focusing on stopping the run and then finding uncovered receivers and tight ends with some nice schemes. And I also noted what NDSU did to EWash. They needed turnovers and the implosion first half by wofford to make that score ugly. Also think SHSU is a decent backdoor offense though same could be said for ndsu and front door offense.

Tough environment and shorter week of practice for SHSU on the quick travel.

I am probably looking to get involved but will line watch.

 

[inZane]

Do any of you gentlemen that have experience with these lesser known programs, have an opinion about the D III Stagg Bowl tonight between Mary-Hardin Baylor and Mount Union?

My site has Mary-HB -3, with the total at 47.

This was about the only useful link I could find...

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...g-bowl-preview-mount-union-mary-hardin-baylor

 

[Timh]

Do any of you gentlemen that have experience with these lesser known programs, have an opinion about the D III Stagg Bowl tonight between Mary-Hardin Baylor and Mount Union?

My site has Mary-HB -3, with the total at 47.

This was about the only useful link I could find...

http://www.ncaa.com/news/football/a...g-bowl-preview-mount-union-mary-hardin-baylor

Zane I really don't, but did know Mount Union always seems to be there in this game. The two predictors I looked at Massey and Dolphin have Mary Hardin 3.5/47.5 and 1.5/32 respectively.

 

[captjohn67]

Zane , I always read these guys and have a small play on Union +3.5 fwiw. It ticked up mid morning and went ahead and grabbed it. I just think they're the better balanced team. Should be a good one.

http://www.d3blogs.com/d3football/2017/12/14/quick-hits-predicts-stagg-bowl-xlv/

 

[Timh]

Good stuff Capt, thanks for posting.

 

[inZane]

Thanks for the reply gents. It looks like it's gonna be some shitty conditions with snow and wind. I think I'll tail ya' Capt with the dog, and put some on the under.

https://www.google.com/search?sourc...1j0i131i46k1j46i131k1j0i22i30k1.0.GtPSIuS-acc

:tiphat:

 

[Timh]

362 NDST -20.5 -112 1*

 

[50cent]

Good luck

 

[dg84]

Mt. Union has been involved in 19 of the past 22 D3 Championships (including tonight) & won 11, but only 2 of the last 7. MHB is the defending champ & beat Mt. Union 14-12 in the semis last year & are on a 29 game winning streak. I know Mt. Union was down to Wisc-Oshkosh 35-10 in the 3rd qtr in last week's semi's, but didn't see the game, so not sure if that was a fluke, or if the fluke was them actually coming back to win. I do know MHB has a freshman QB, who became the starter about a month ago. Mt. Union would seem to have the edge there. Their QB has a 49:3 TD to INT ration & completes 70% of his passes. They also have two 1,000 yard rushers. MHB's strength is their DL, which allows less than 50 ypg rushing & had 49 sacks. Defense as a whole gives up 7ppg. Should be a good game. #1 offense vs #1 defense.

 

[dg84]

Oh, and MHB has given up just 16 points & a total of 945 yards in 4 playoff games. Pretty impressive.

 

[Timh]

SHSU last game of the year when they meet upper echelon (all losses)

2016 James Madison 65-7

2015 Jax St 62-10

2014 North Dakota St 35-3

2013 SE Louisiana 30-29

2012 NDSU 35-3

Obviously this means nothing for this year, but they have a horrible track record in the playoffs when it's time to beat a heavyweight. I think NDSU will score damn near every time they have the ball. Obviously not speaking for Tim, just saw your post and thought I'd throw my 2 cents in.

And SHSU ranks 107 in rush D, 121 in pass D (which is typical of them), plays in a questionable conference, and lost arguably their biggest game of the year to Central Arky 41-30

Damn prophetic...Captain, nice call....

 

[RetroVK]

NDSU gets jobbed by the refs the whole first half and are up 38. When you are right, you are right. I was wrong.

 

[Timh]

NDSU gets jobbed by the refs the whole first half and are up 38. When you are right, you are right. I was wrong.

I hate when that happens, which is all too frequently. I think from what I have seen the last couple years watching FCS playoffs that there is a real drop off to the less competitive conferences and teams in the better conferences seem to have the better line players on both sides of the ball and that really has been a key factor. What do you think about tomorrow's game with SDST/JMU going at it?

 

[RetroVK]

I hate when that happens, which is all too frequently. I think from what I have seen the last couple years watching FCS playoffs that there is a real drop off to the less competitive conferences and teams in the better conferences seem to have the better line players on both sides of the ball and that really has been a key factor. What do you think about tomorrow's game with SDST/JMU going at it?

I didn't cap the game.

What do you think?

 

[Timh]

The one game I didn't watch last week was SDST gm, so I am not up on them like I should be. JMU had more trouble with Weber St. though than I thought they would and despite dominating statistically managed to take it right to the end.. We discussed earlier matchup with SDST/NDST, and fact that NDST kind of derailed themselves with 5 TO and couldn't overcome that, just a bad game for them and it happens sometimes. SDST though is vulnerable in defending the running game, and I'm thinking JMU needs to try and pound it on the ground and then let their defense handle things. Home advantage and the experience and better D makes me want to play JMU.

 

[Timh]

202/205 ML Parlay Troy, Oregon -116 1*

 

[Timh]

College Football

GAME #203-204

Georgia State - WR Penny Hart (Foot) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs Western Kentucky

 

[Timh]

215/216 Temple/FIU over 56.5 1*

 

[Timh]

218 Ohio -6.5 -107 1.5*

 

[Marsski]

218 Ohio -6.5 -107 1.5*

Let's get this Dr. Tim...:cheers3:

 

[Timh]

Nice hit there Mars, GL and Merry X-mas.

220 Wyoming -3 +105 1*

 

[RetroVK]

good hit timh

 

[Timh]

222 SF -2 1*
224 SDST -6.5 -118 1.5*

 

[Timh]

227/228 Houston/Fresno St. under 51 1*

 

[Timh]

College Football

GAME #229-230

Utah - QB Tyler Huntley (Undisclosed) is upgraded to probable Tuesday vs West Virginia




12/14 04:39 PM PST

College Football

GAME #229-230

West Virginia - RB Justin Crawford (Personal) is OUT Tuesday vs Utah

College Football

GAME #229-230

West Virginia - QB Will Grier (Finger) is doubtful Tuesday vs Utah

 

[Timh]

College Football

GAME #233-234

UCLA - QB Josh Rosen (Concussion) is downgraded to doubtful Tuesday vs Kansas State

 

[Timh]

Heart of Dallas Bowl: How Utah’s Kyle Whittingham has forged the best bowl record of all time

https://theathletic.com/194744/2017...t-virginia-utah-kyle-whittingham-bowl-record/

Heart of Dallas Bowl: Utah vs. West Virginia score, TV channel, how to watch live stream

http://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootball/index.ssf/2017/12/heart_of_dallas_bowl_utah_vs_w.html

 

[Timh]

Whittingham brings 10-1 bowl mark into game vs. WVU
http://www.dominionpost.com/Whittingham-brings-winning-recor

 

[Timh]

Heart of Dallas Bowl preview: Can West Virginia survive without their top offensive weapons?
https://sportsday.dallasnews.com/co...irginia-survive-without-top-offensive-weapons

 

[Timh]

Heart of Dallas preview: Might third time be Chugunov’s charm?
http://wvmetronews.com/2017/12/25/heart-of-dallas-preview-might-third-time-be-chugunovs-charm/

 

[Timh]

Team YPR RA YPA PA SOS TO
Utah 4.1 4.1 7.7 6.2 73.3 +1
WVU 4.4 5.1 8.6 7.9 74.45 -5

Looks like 145-150 plays but could be less if Utah can dominate TOP. WVU could focus on a more possession oriented passing game and shorter routes etc. to get Chug going. Not to be overlooked is Whittingham excellent prep for bowl games and 10-1 record. WVU bad taste in mouth from def performance vs. OK, will they be motivated to atone?

 

[KJ]

Dallas high 41 and 40% chance rain Tuesday during game