CFB Week 11

Timh

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
YTD Record

Sides 39-33, +9.75
Totals 8-2, +3.6
Teasers 7-6, +2.2
1h 6-4, +2.5
2h 7-7, -1.9
ML 3-3, -0.15
Parlays 2-1, +2.18

Total 72-56, +18.18 units

Two losing weeks in a row, hope to get back on track! Looking forward to MD/VT on Thursday night. VT QB's Taylor and Glennon both in walking boots and limited in practice so far as 3rd string QB Cory Holt has taken all of the snaps. MD RB D. Scott left NCST game with shoulder injury that looked like a dislocation from the way he was holding his arm. LB D. Philistin also left NCST game with a shoulder injury. MD got some nice production out of D. Meggett RB after D. Scott left with his injury. I'll be keeping an eye on these injuries during the week.

Buffalo -8 1.1/1
TCU ML 1.2/1
Tease MD +9, under 47.5 1.1/1
Alabama -3 -105 2.1/2
Duke -3.5 1.1/1
LA Monroe +4.5 1.1/1
Nevada 2h -1.5 1.1/1
Florida State -3.5 2.2/2
Illinois/WMich over 62.5 1.1/1
Georgia -7 1h 1.1/1
Ohio State 1h -7 -105 1.05/1
Oklahoma TT over 48.5 -115 1.15/1
Virginia +4 1.1/1
Troy -17 1.1/1
Stanford +14 1.15/1
Penn State 2h -3 1.2/1
USC -21 1.2/1
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Buffalo -8 1.1/1 - Thought Buffalo looked pretty good last week with Starks back in the lineup and the OL doing a nice job upfront. Willy also impressed me with his decision making and cool demeanor. I'm hoping their confidence carries over to another good performance tonight.
 
On Buffalo this week Tim.

Looking at your boys Thursday Night but seems like VaTech owns Thursdays at home
 
Maryland
Date Pos Player Injury Status
11/02 2:55am LB Adrian Moten Wrist missed last few games, '?'
11/02 2:52am LB Dave Philistin Shoulder left last game, '?'
11/04 6:15pm RB Da"Rel Scott Shoulder is downgraded to doubtful
Virginia Tech
Date Pos Player Injury Status
11/04 6:10pm QB Cory Holt None expected to start.
11/04 6:09pm QB Tyrod Taylor Ankle is downgraded to doubtful
10/27 6:17am QB Sean Glennon Ankle injured last game, upgraded to '?'
 
Timh said:
Maryland
Date Pos Player Injury Status
11/02 2:55am LB Adrian Moten Wrist missed last few games, '?'
11/02 2:52am LB Dave Philistin Shoulder left last game, '?'
11/04 6:15pm RB Da"Rel Scott Shoulder is downgraded to doubtful
Virginia Tech
Date Pos Player Injury Status
11/04 6:10pm QB Cory Holt None expected to start.
11/04 6:09pm QB Tyrod Taylor Ankle is downgraded to doubtful
10/27 6:17am QB Sean Glennon Ankle injured last game, upgraded to '?'
Click to expand...

Tim, it looks like Tyrod is the least likely to play. He is hurt the most and his game depends more on his legs. Glennon should be available, but if he is healthy enough to start is another story. If I had to guess Holt will start and Glennon will be number 2. Of course, all of that could change after practice tomorrow. I see the line has went from -3.5 to -2.5. I played a little on the Maryland moneyline at +145 before the line moved. I know VT has been money on Thursday night games. That was generally because of the crowd and the defense. The crowd will be there on Thursday, but the defense is not what it has been in past years. What about the Maryland injuries? I guess Scott will sit?
 
He - Scott is a huge loss for MD. I like Meggett but Scott has that breakaway speed and the ability to make a huge play. VT has definitely had MD's number since joining the ACC and Bleaksburg will be a very tough place for the Terps to play. I still think Glennon may be likely to see some action.
 
I am leaning to the Terps tonight Tim, you certainly know more about this team than anyone & I would appreciate your final thoughts. It appears to me that the Terps have balance on both sides of the ball & that can not be said about VT. The main question I have is the Terps "D" because VT offense is very poor imo, can the Terps "D" shut this VT offense down? Thanks Cash
 
Timmy is obviously the source for Maryland, but I can speak to VPI. The Chokies are in a weird place right now, winning with smoke and goddamn mirrors. Taylor has obviously been the difference on offense, as his quick feet has made defenses sit back and respect the run even when the Hokies drop back to pass. I can't emphasize how important this is to the Hokies running their high-school-style offense. Look back at their teams from the last 10 years; when have they had success when they weren't playing a mobile QB at least half the time? The answer is quite simply NEVER. They need to have a run option on every play because their QBs only read one side of the field on pass plays (I'm not kidding), so if those 1-2 options are closed, the play tends to break down. In the past, especially with the Vicks, this was a GOOD thing. Any time a pass goes up in the air in the Hokie offense, I feel like there is a great chance for an INT. When Randall/Vicks/Taylor ran the ball, there's a good chance 20 yards would be picked up.

This game, we don't have that player. Cory Holt can move, but he is almost 0 threat to complete a pass more than 15 yards down the field. You saw when he came in F$U bullied the LOS and while people thought Holt played admirable, he was nothing special at all (3-6, 28 yards, 1 TD, 4 rushes for -11 yards) against what I think is kind of a suspect Criminole defense. He'll be the starter, and if he falters they might force Glennon into action. This makes things worse, as a guy who was already pretty immobile (and ridiculously sack-prone) gets put in against a defense who has committed to stopping the run and pressuring the QB. I think the Hokies have struggled all year on offense and this situation is not what they need after 2 straight losses (their first two road losses since they have been in the ACC).

Maryland reminds me of UVa. They have NFL talent on the field at a lot of positions and really have the capability to beat anyone in the conference on their home field. Unfortunately, they lose focus on the road and their coach goes into a playcalling shell when he gets backed into a corner. You can always tell with this team (aside from the Clemson game) how the game is going to go based on their first 2 drives on offense. If they move the ball, they seem to build confidence and play up to their potential (which is pretty high). If they sputter, they seem to fall apart and you know you're not getting them back for the rest of the game. The good news is that this is the first of 4 critical games for them that will determine who goes where in the ACC. Twerps have UNC and F$U on deck at home and then BC on the road. They know they need this one and one of the home games (most likely will win F$U) if they want to be somewhere in the hunt for that ACC championship berth. Taking a step back and looking at it, I think they win tonight, lose to UNC next weekend (in typical momentum killing Terp fashion), bounce back and beat the Noles (who they always beat at home) and then get bitchslapped in Chestnut Hill to end the season.

I'm playing Twerps +3 for a couple units tonight, with or without Scott. They might not win, but you simply cannot play the Hokies at this number. Everyone will like them because of the home at night factor yadda yadda, but look at this team. Now take a look at the teams from 2001 to 2007. Lots of NFL players on the old teams, eh? Not too many outside of Macho on this one, eh? This isn't your old brother's Hokie team, and don't treat them as such.

Sorry to clutter your thread up, Timmy.
 
Keep up the solid work Timh.. I've been living in Rockville for a few years now and been getting a decent feel for this Maryland team over the years. Maryland is so hit and miss on the road. They looked awful against Virginia and MTSU but won in Clemson..

Leaning Maryland since VT might have QB problems..
 
Tech seniors deliver a message

Thursday, Nov 06, 2008 - 12:07 AM Updated: 12:27 PM


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Virginia Tech cornerback Victor "Macho" Harris has made some great plays this season, but also has been on the wrong end of big plays, such as this one by Florida State receiver Greg Carr.

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By DARRYL SLATER
TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITER


BLACKSBURG -- Virginia Tech's coaches adjourned the team meeting Saturday, but the Hokies' seniors remained in the room at the Merryman Center. Coming off two consecutive losses, they had planned all week on delivering a message to their teammates. This seemed the best time to do it, as the Hokies returned from a two-day break.
Cornerback Victor "Macho" Harris took charge, telling the underclassmen that he and his fellow seniors were seeing less enthusiasm on the sideline than they saw last season. The seniors wanted to convey a sense of urgency, a need to finish the season strong and not be the first Tech team since 1992 to miss a bowl game.
The Hokies (2-2 ACC, 5-3) have four games remaining, beginning with today's 7:30 p.m. meeting with Maryland at Lane Stadium. At least tonight, the game could hinge on Tech's quarterback situation. Tyrod Taylor and Sean Glennon (high left ankle sprains) will be game-time decisions. Third-stringer Cory Holt would start if Taylor and Glennon can't play.
For the long haul, senior left guard Nick Marshman thinks the seniors' message resonated, though he also knows the Hokies are young -- a logical culprit for their inconsistency, in sideline demeanor and play, this season.
"Maybe it's some of the younger guys that haven't played, that haven't been there," Marshman said. "Maybe us as seniors, we haven't instilled that part on to the younger guys."
Though it is difficult to pinpoint the cause of hiccups in an intangible factor such as enthusiasm, it is easy to see at least part of the reason why the Hokies are so green this season; why 32 of the 66 players who traveled to their last game, at Florida State, were sophomores or younger; why there were more freshmen (11) in the two-deep that game than seniors (10).
Attrition -- that's why.
College football is inherently cyclical. Teams won't always be as experienced as Tech was for last season's Orange Bowl, when the Hokies had 13 seniors and eight freshmen in the two-deep. But coaches can't plan on losing almost half of their recruits in a three-year period, as Tech has.
Of the 61 players who signed with Tech from 2004-06, 30 either never came to Tech, left with eligibility remaining or currently are suspended. From the 2001-03 signing classes, just 20 of 64 recruits fell into that category. Those early departure numbers don't count three players who left early for the NFL: Brandon Flowers, DeAngelo Hall and Kevin Jones.
The reasons for no-shows or early departures range from academics (receiver Todd Nolen) to injuries (offensive tackle Aaron Brown) to simply being kicked off the team (running back Branden Ore).
Two of Tech's thinnest positions, offensive line and wide receiver, were hit hardest. Of the 2004-06 early departures, six were offensive linemen and five were wide receivers. On top of attrition, the Hokies have lost three starters since the summer to season-ending injuries: receiver Brandon Dillard, tailback Kenny Lewis Jr. and rover Davon Morgan.
Tech recruiting coordinator Jim Cavanaugh declined to comment for this story.
Dillard's ruptured Achilles tendon was a blow to a position that Tech's coaches have had trouble recruiting in recent years. Receiver recruits knew they probably wouldn't be able to contribute immediately because, until this season, Tech had four players entrenched at the position: Justin Harper, Josh Hyman, Josh Morgan and Eddie Royal.
When the Hokies take the field tonight, injuries and attrition could leave them with a freshman at tailback, three freshmen at receiver and a fifth-year senior quarterback making his first career.
Asked if he has ever entered a game with such inexperience at his skill positions, 22nd-year Tech coach Frank Beamer didn't hesitate.
"Never," he said.
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Contact Darryl Slater at (804) 649-6026 or dslater@timesdispatch.com.
 
Tech offense faces questions

Quarterback-depleted Virginia Tech probably can't afford to be all-run, all-the-time tonight.

<DL class=byline>By NORM WOOD | | 247-4642 <DD>November 6, 2008 </DD></DL>BLACKSBURG - — If Virginia Tech running backs coach Billy Hite had it his way, he'd like to see a lot more of what took place six years ago in a Thursday night game in Lane Stadium.

When then-No. 11 Tech steamrolled No. 16 Marshall in 2002, the Hokies ran the ball on 66 of 78 plays, with running backs Kevin Jones and Lee Suggs taking pressure off quarterback Bryan Randall, who was making the first start of his career. Tech's run-first mentality, which resulted in 395 yards, led the way to a 47-21 win against Marshall and quarterback Byron Leftwich, a Heisman Trophy candidate.

"I'd love to do it again at some time," said Hite, whose backfield hasn't had that many carries in a game since that night.

Could tonight's game against No. 23 Maryland bring a Tech offense approaching what was seen in the '02 Marshall game? With Tech's top two quarterbacks less than 100 percent, the emphasis may be on the run, but a Marshall-esque performance would be asking a lot from an '08 Hokies team that lacks the same kind of personnel.



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<!-- END rail -->Tech enters tonight's game against Maryland (6-2 overall, 3-1 ACC) with what could be another first-time starter at quarterback. Senior Cory Holt will start if either Sean Glennon or Tyrod Taylor, both of whom are on the mend with high left ankle sprains, can't play.

"We've got to wait and see what quarterbacks are available on Thursday night and then we'll go from there," Hite said.

Another effort like the one Jones (24 carries for 171 yards and three touchdowns) and Suggs (24 carries for 153 yards and two touchdowns) turned in that night would be nostalgic, but it's unlikely Tech (5-3, 2-2) will go that route again. Maryland is ninth in the ACC in rushing defense (137 yards per game), but Tech doesn't have the same line or backfield talent it had in '02.

"They had a quarterback at Marshall that we were trying to keep the ball away from," Hite said. "Until there were about 10 minutes left in that game, and we were up (33-7), I still didn't feel comfortable. We were doing that (running) to keep the ball away from (Leftwich)."

That night, Tech won the time of possession by more than eight minutes and had scoring drives of nine, 14 and 15 plays.

Since playing Marshall, Tech has had 50 or more carries in 19 games. Not surprisingly, all 19 games have been wins, but only four of those games have taken place since the start of the '06 season. This season, Tech ran 55 times for 206 yards at Nebraska and 51 times for 151 yards against Western Kentucky.

Redshirt freshman Darren Evans, who leads Tech with 130 carries for 519 yards and eight touchdowns, can be a workhorse. Yet he hasn't eclipsed the 100-yard mark.

In Tech's 30-20 loss at Florida State on Oct. 25, the Hokies' game plan changed quite a bit when Taylor was injured on the first play of the game. It was still unexpected to see Evans have just four carries in the second half for 12 yards. Tech's offensive line struggled against a defense that had nine tackles for losses.

With Kenny Lewis out with a torn Achilles' tendon, there's no proven depth behind Evans. Junior Jahre Cheeseman was moved from fullback to tailback to compete for backup duties with redshirt freshman Josh Oglesby, who is averaging just 2.4 yards per carry.

While Glennon's chances of playing seem greater than they did during the weekend, Evans doesn't anticipate Tech being too run-heavy even if Holt plays. Evans is convinced the passing game (which produced just 116.5 ypg with Glennon and Taylor) can be competent with Holt.

"Cory has got a good arm," Evans said. "We definitely want to establish the run first, but along with that running game, the passing game is going to come. That's the way we do it around here — get the running game going and then bring in the passing game."
 
you staying away from this one Tim? How about loser picks up the tab at at happy hour sometime in the near future. I'm heading out to watch the game and get drunk. Reply if you want the bet. I'll take VT -3.

Good luck tonight buddy
 
cashflowmatters said:
I am leaning to the Terps tonight Tim, you certainly know more about this team than anyone & I would appreciate your final thoughts. It appears to me that the Terps have balance on both sides of the ball & that can not be said about VT. The main question I have is the Terps "D" because VT offense is very poor imo, can the Terps "D" shut this VT offense down? Thanks Cash
Click to expand...

Cash - MD has done a decent job of stopping the run this year (3.7 ypc) and 138 ypg. Terps do not have a tremendous amount of depth on the DL and are playing the 3-4 this year to take advantage of the strength of the defense which is the LB's. As I mentioned before the NCST game I was concerned about our secondary because of the loss of our best cover corner Kevin Barnes for the season. As a result they had to shuffle some people around in the secondary moving McCullough from SS to CB as the nickel corner and Jeff Allen and Kenny Tate are now getting the snaps at SS. Wiseman and Carroll are playing the corners. Getting Carroll back from injury was key, with Barnes going down or we would be without 2 of our 3 best corners. Anyway, to answer your question I am happy that it looks like Tyrod Taylor will not play because he is their best running QB and I think that's where MD could have some problems dealing with his scrambling on pass plays that breakdown. I expect Glennon to play in this game but as JG mentioned he may not be very effective because of his lack of mobility. I don't think VT can really hurt MD with their passing game which is good for MD because I think our secondary might be a little vulnerable. MD certainly throws the ball much better than VT, and if they don't turn it over or give up big special teams play they should be able to stay right in this game. It does not look like D. Scot is going to play for MD and that is not good, because he has the speed and the ability to break big plays in the running game if he gets loose. I look for MD to throw some quick passes, screens etc. to keep VT defense at bay a little and make them think about blitzing so much. I am going to wait and see if I can get some more definitive info on D. Scott but it looks like he is doubtful with the shoulder injury. I will say it is very difficult to go against VT at home on a Thur. night and particularly so as they come in off two losses in a row both on the road. Prior to that VT had only ever lost one road game in the ACC which was at BC 22-3 in 2006.
 
TCU ML 1.2/1 - TCU defense really impresses me and I like the +15 TO ratio and 40 sacks. We'll see if they can contain a mobile QB in Johnson tonight. Should be a closely contested game.
 
Hokie pregame radio stated that from talking to VT people they think Glennon will start, but Holt will see time at QB also. Taylor will not play and is doubtful for next week. Also, look for the wildcat formation some tonight, because of the QB problems and the extra time between games.

I read one of the articles regarding the RB situation you posted. It is not completely true. Cheese was moved to FB at the beginning of the year because of the depth at RB, not because he lacked ability. Since then Lewis was lost for the season, Williams has been redshirted, and Oglesby has been ineffective. So, they moved Cheese back to RB. Both he and Oglesby will spell Evans.:shake:
 
They pulled the old fuck-a-roo on Scott. Glad I decided to bet the Terps small earlier...

Ralph held that one up his sleeve. Scott looks good on this first drive...

GL to the Turtle, health to you on TCU...
 
Tim: I am very disappointed with the defensive play calling by Maryland, VT QB can not move for shit & they are only rushing 3 guys & getting little or no pressure on VT QB, thus easy throws to shread the Terps zone. The Terps defenders look lost, can only hope the Fridge makes some adjustments or this one could get out of reach.
 
cashflowmatters said:
Tim: I am very disappointed with the defensive play calling by Maryland, VT QB can not move for shit & they are only rushing 3 guys & getting little or no pressure on VT QB, thus easy throws to shread the Terps zone. The Terps defenders look lost, can only hope the Fridge makes some adjustments or this one could get out of reach.
Click to expand...
I don't understand it either Cash, but I think Cosh is afraid to let his corners man up out there. We saw the same fucking thing in the NCST game and Wilson killed us with his scrambling and he had enough time to find somebody in the seams of the zone. I was screaming for MD to blitz and they finally started to in the 2h. MD also getting beat up front on both sides of the ball and Scott is definitely not himself tonight. I think they are better off going with Meggett in the 2h. Biggest problem though I agree is lack of pressure on Glennon who is playing on one fucking leg.
 
Timh said:
I don't understand it either Cash, but I think Cosh is afraid to let his corners man up out there. We saw the same fucking thing in the NCST game and Wilson killed us with his scrambling and he had enough time to find somebody in the seams of the zone. I was screaming for MD to blitz and they finally started to in the 2h. MD also getting beat up front on both sides of the ball and Scott is definitely not himself tonight. I think they are better off going with Meggett in the 2h. Biggest problem though I agree is lack of pressure on Glennon who is playing on one fucking leg.
Click to expand...

They have to get after the QB in the 2nd 1/2, this zone is bull shit, one legged Glennon is just playing pitch & catch. I don't care if a corner gets beat, ya have to give your team the best chance to win & in the 1st 1/2 the Fridge did not d that. They blitz, they can still pull this out, VT sucks imo.
 
ugh , now the Terps offense getting abused on offense. I have never liked beamer, but he is imo out coaching the Fridge. I would send the "D" after Glennon like a pack of Wolves , smell the wounded animal & destroy & on offense quick screens would work. I am just saking my head because I honestly don't believe VT is that good.
 
Well last night was just brutal on all accounts.....

Alabama -3 -105 2.1/2 - I don't think LSU has the caliber of QB play they will need to have a chance in this game. J. Lee was picked 3 times by Georgia and last week threw a pick for a TD vs. Tulane. On the season he has 11 TD's and 10 interceptions. Given that it will be very tough for LSU to run on Alabama (66 ypg and 2.6 ypc) I see Lee being put in a lot of tough spots against the Tide defense which has also been very solid in pass coverage. Alabama gets Cody back which will fortify their defensive interior against the run. Bama has been very focused under Saban and bring the better balanced team to the table in this one. LSU also not forcing near as many turnovers this year (only 8) and actually have a -5 TO ratio. The road team is 10-1-1 vs. the number in the L12 in the series. I like the poise of this Alabama squad and think they will play a very good game here.
 
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Duke -3.5 1.1/1 - Duke has improved a lot under Cutcliffe this season and really should have won last week vs. Wake had their kicking game not let them down. NCST secondary is very vulnerable and I think Lewis can take advantage for the Devils. Duke has the better D here and need to make sure they contain up and coming Wilson whose real value is his ability to extend plays with his elusiveness and scrambling ability. I thought this line would be quite a bit higher here and I'll take a crack on the Devils.
 
damn, hate to be on the other side of Duke and be against you...oh well...GL anyway timh...
 
tim - re NCSU. my answer would be that O'Brien's team comes off a bye week, they haven't played all that badly after a rotten start, and Dook comes off tuff OT loss in a game they very easily could have won.
pags would have the fundamental reasons for taking NC ST . He's much more knowledgeable than I am , but we all know that any one of these games can go either way.
 
Bull thanks for your thoughts. I watched the Duke/Mr.Peanut game last week and really thought Duke had them on the ropes the whole game and should have won. NCST is improving I agree, but their secondary is not good and overall I think Duke is better on defense. I just think 3.5 is kind of cheap here, figured it would be 6 or 7. ACC is so fucked up though, you never know what may happen.
 
so lets get serious,ebough with this football crap..i know you cant wait till hoops..hows your terps gonna be?
 
Best of luck this week Timh.

Had tcu with you .. not against in any posted so far .. though ncstate just missed my card.

Hope you win the money.
 
jimbof20 said:
so lets get serious,ebough with this football crap..i know you cant wait till hoops..hows your terps gonna be?
Click to expand...

No big men Jim, Gus Gilchrist ended up at So. Fla and we needed him desperately. Gary will probably play a lot of guards this year as the returning bigs have proven absolutely nothing. Braxton Dupree should be the best of them and that's a sad commentary.
 
vegaskyle said:
Best of luck this week Timh.

Had tcu with you .. not against in any posted so far .. though ncstate just missed my card.

Hope you win the money.
Click to expand...
Thanks Kyle, that was a brutal beat on TCU. Hope you have a solid week :cheers:
 
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