CFB Week 10

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Will fix the thread/post sometime later. Been busy this week, but Happy Halloween. Anyhow, as always, will update this 1st post as I make plays during the week.



Thursday 10/31
ASU(-4) to ASU/WSU un77 for 1.1 to win 1 W
Friday 11/1
Oregon St (-3) @ -120 for 1 L
Saturday 11/2
Colorado/UCLA over 56.5 for 3/4
Arizona(-9.5) to Arizona/Cal un74 for 1.1 to win 1
Auburn (-7) @ -120 for 1
FSU TT over 41.5 for 3/4
GT(-1.5) to Mizzou(-1.5) to ND(-7) for 1 to win 1
UCLA(-20) to ULL(-23) to Texas(-18) for 1 to win 1
FSU 1H (-12.5) for 3/4
GT/Mizzou/FSU/Auburn ML parlay for .75 to win .85



Week #1: 11-5, +5.835
Week #2: 5-1, +4.450
Week #3: 9-5, +2.675
Week #4: 7-7, -0.075
Week #5: 6-6, +0.650
Week #6: 6-3-1, +3.600
Week #7: 5-5, -0.400
Week #8: 7-7, -0.900
Week #9: 6-6, -0.490
YTD: 62-45-1, +15.345


Good luck this weekend!!! :cheers:
 
Last edited:
for the weeknight games...

Thursday 10/31
ASU(-4) to ASU/WSU un77 for 1.1 to win 1
Friday 11/1
Oregon St (-3) @ -120 for 1

Just these two plays.
Made ASU a 13.5 rd fav here, as they should be. They simply outclass Wazzou. That said, I don't like the spot...a cold, Thursday, Halloween night in Pullman. So since the line movement made this palatable, I teased it to the under. Despite first glances, don't believe this game gets into the 70s at all.
Some serious reverse line movement in Corvallis, but I don't care. Line came down a bit more at BM just now, so I added it. The Beavers will throw on USC much better than they did vs Stanford. The Trojans defense is more predicated against stopping the run, which isn't a problem against Oregon St.

Gotta bail...but I'll be back before Saturday. :cheers:
 
Schrute said:
GL tonight
Click to expand...

thx, D :cheers:

dilaudid8 said:
yanks bol my brother
Click to expand...

thx, D8 :cheers:



______________________________________



Well, I got lucky tonight. Took every bit of that tease to squeak by with the under side of things. Really had expected Wazzou to come out better than that, but they just suck right now. Not the same team that played Auburn to start the season, then beat USC in a very tight game. Free falling (apart) in Pullman. Oh well, I'll take it...and move on to Friday.
 
the Top 30 according to my PR #s...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]116.96[/TD]
[TD]Oregon [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]116.74[/TD]
[TD]Alabama [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]114.66[/TD]
[TD]Baylor [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]113.75[/TD]
[TD]Florida State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]108.34[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.73[/TD]
[TD]Stanford [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.24[/TD]
[TD]Arizona State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.31[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.98[/TD]
[TD]LSU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.95[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.84[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.90[/TD]
[TD]Clemson [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.88[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma State[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.76[/TD]
[TD]Texas [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.72[/TD]
[TD]BYU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.68[/TD]
[TD]Louisville [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.13[/TD]
[TD]Missouri [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.50[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.46[/TD]
[TD]Georgia [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.07[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.87[/TD]
[TD]Auburn [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.80[/TD]
[TD]Mississippi [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.70[/TD]
[TD]Washington [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.52[/TD]
[TD]UCLA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.39[/TD]
[TD]Michigan State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.33[/TD]
[TD]Oregon State [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.66[/TD]
[TD]Miami-FL[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.60[/TD]
[TD]Arizona [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.45[/TD]
[TD]Georgia Tech [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.43[/TD]
[TD]USC[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


Florida, UCF, & Texas Tech are the next 3 fwiw.
 
And the Bottom 10 according to my PR #s...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]65.74[/TD]
[TD]WesternMichigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]65.63[/TD]
[TD]UTEP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.38[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.69[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.26[/TD]
[TD]Miami-OH[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.48[/TD]
[TD]So Mississippi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.32[/TD]
[TD]Idaho [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.70[/TD]
[TD]FIU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]56.89
[/TD]
[TD]NewMexicoState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]53.93[/TD]
[TD]Georgia State[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


New Mexico would be next as the only other team below 70, at 69 & change, fwiw.
 
two additions for now...

Colorado/UCLA over 56.5 for 3/4
Arizona(-9.5) to Arizona/Cal un74 for 1.1 to win 1

will come back in a few to talk about these games. but with these included, that pretty much takes care of the Pac-12 for me this week.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
two additions for now...

Colorado/UCLA over 56.5 for 3/4
Arizona(-9.5) to Arizona/Cal un74 for 1.1 to win 1

will come back in a few to talk about these games. but with these included, that pretty much takes care of the Pac-12 for me this week.
Click to expand...


first the teaser...
doing basically the same thing i did with the thursday nite teaser...lowering the road fav spread by combining it with the under for the game. wazzou was just brutal in the 1st half, where i thought they'd actually be decent early, so i was very fortunate to win that play.
but in terms of this matchup...
Cal had played 5 games vs the Pac-12 so far this season. scored 17 vs washington (game total of 58), scored 17 vs oregon st (game total of 66), scored 10 vs ucla (game total of 47), scored 22 vs wazzou (game total of 66), and scored 16 vs oregon (game total of 71).
Zona has only played 4 games to date this season vs the Pac-12. scored 44 vs colorado (game total of 64), scored 35 vs utah (game total of 59), scored 31 vs usc (game total of 69), and scored 13 vs washington (game total of 44).
take the highs...zona throwing up 44, and cal throwing up 22...and we only get to 66 pts. but it would be silly to simply rely on the #s like that so far this year. Cal's still dinged up a bit, but they've been competing as best they can throughout...and make no mistake, they are slowly getting healthier on the defensive side of the ball. zona's gonna pound Carey all game long, so this should look a helluva lot like the zona/colorado game last week. and that's the key...it's simply a very similar matchup as last week from arizona's perspective...just as it's a very similar matchup as last week from cal's perspective, where bishop sankey went off for washington.

long winded way of going about it...but look at the Washington/Cal game and the Arizona/Colorado game...and it's not all that different here for either team.
Zona should cover with an 18 to 20 pt win...just as this game should total out somewhere between 58 and 64 points. But I teased Zona to the under to provide me some leeway on both fronts...partly cuz Cal is getting healthier, as mentioned...partly cuz Cal got a lucky backdoor last week, for their 1st cover of the season...and partly cuz zona's got a big game to look forward to the following week.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
two additions for now...

Colorado/UCLA over 56.5 for 3/4
Arizona(-9.5) to Arizona/Cal un74 for 1.1 to win 1

will come back in a few to talk about these games. but with these included, that pretty much takes care of the Pac-12 for me this week.
Click to expand...

secondly, the total...
Colorado's played 7 games...4 of which vs real teams in the Pac-12...2 vs 1AA teams, and 1 vs colorado st.
Against the Pac-12, they've allowed 44/54/57/44 pts in the 4 games...while scoring 20/13/16/17 pts in the same 4 games.
so worst case scenario, it looks like a 44-13 ucla win (57 pts in the game). UCLA's scored 45 & 42 vs the Buffs the last 2 years, fwiw.

Anyhow, UCLA's off the Stanford/Oregon B2B road trips. Brutal 2 game stretch. Remember what that did to Washington at ASU the following week? Well, obviously, Colorado isn't in ASU's ballpark...but that said, chances are the UCLA defense won't be in peak form this weekend. In fact, it's a letdown spot, but i'll get back to that.
But because it's apples to oranges...also look at how Washington responded vs Cal after 3 straight brutal weeks of Stanford/Oregon/ASU...a nice 41-17 win over the Bears. Obviously, I keep comparing Cal and Colorado...and it's not just because they're the bottom two teams in the conference. Quite a few similarities, tbh.

Jumping around though cuz I gotta bail. But UCLA's on an under run...4 straight. despite that, despite the RB injuries, and despite the tackle injuries...the Bruin offense desperately needs to get on track here against the 2nd worst defense in the conference.
Arizona/Washington/ASU/USC are all on deck to close out the year, so now's the time for Hundley and company to get healthy. (In other words, this is UCLA's version of the Washington/Cal game the other week...mainly in terms of the offense.)
Can't lay the 28 pts here though...as this is one giant sandwich...stanford/oregon on one end, with those other 4 games i just mentioned on the other end...especially considering the injuries.

All that said, i see UCLA getting into the 40s here fairly comfortably...with the low 50s being a fair to decent possibility. (The play was a toss up between the game going over and the UCLA team total going over, in all honesty.) And the Buffs are going to get their 16 to 17 here as well...for the various (if not scattered, lol) aforementioned reasons. Possibly even 21-24 though, considering garbage time. Anyhow, if that makes sense (typing quickly), that's why i added the over here.
 
beavs were dominated in the trenches, but they played like (and were coached by) complete tards last night. seems like they're becoming a better road team than home team of late, lol.

anyhow...still fuckin' busy, and late getting things done this week...so two late additions...

Auburn (-7) @ -120 for 1
FSU TT over 41.5 for 3/4

and two more teasers...

GT(-1.5) to Mizzou(-1.5) to ND(-7) for 1 to win 1
UCLA(-20) to ULL(-23) to Texas(-18) for 1 to win 1

Aubbie dipped down a while ago, so I added it. Total value play, as my PR #s made them a 14 pt road fav vs Arkansas. Marshall looks like he should play...but even if he doesn't, I'm ok with things here. Double revenge, btw.

Went with the Seminole team total versus the game total going over, because I don't trust Miami's offense to contribute enough to the cause. Maybe 50/50 they reach/pass 20 pts, imo...but FSU definitely in the 40s here.

Lastly the teasers are combining games where my PR #s gave 3.5 or more points of value to the lines. For example...made GT a 15 pt fav, Mizzou a 14 pt fav, and Notre Dame a 20.5 pt fav. Wasn't going to play them all this late in the game, and this rushed (tbh)...so i teased them together to create even more (personal) line value with the games. This applies to all those teased games short of UCLA. Not that kinda line value there, but still added it into the mix.

Anyhow, GL today. :cheers:
 
another piece of the big game...

FSU 1H (-12.5) for 3/4

again, don't think the U's offense can keep up.
FSU's L2 halftime scores...42-0 over NCST and 27-7 over Clemson. Miami's L2 halftime scores...10-14 deficit to Wake Forest and 13-17 deficit to UNC.
Canes losing at the half to teams they should've stomped. Can only imagine how bad it'll look after a half against one of the true top teams in the sport.
 
last addition...

GT/Mizzou/FSU/Auburn ML parlay for .75 to win .85

what can i say...it's been one of 'those' weeks.
 
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