CFB Week 1

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
Feels good to be getting back into football season. Will update this post as I make plays.
Hope everyone's having a nice summer. :shake:



Thurs. 8/29
Ole Miss (-3) @ -115 for 1
Fresno TT ov 32.5 @ -115 for 1
Tulsa (+4) for 1/2
Fri. 8/30
SMU (+6) for 1/2
Sat. 8/31
Okie St (-12.5) for 1
Wash St (+15.5) for 1
UW (-3.5) for 1
Louisiana (+10.5) for .7
UGA/Clemson under 72 for .7
N Illinois (+3.5) for 1/2
UAB (+5) for 1/2
UCLA (-19.5) for 1/2
NW (-6) for 1/2
Sun. 9/1
Colorado St (-3) @ -105 for 1/2
Mon. 9/2
FSU (-10) for 1
Holiday Weekend Teaser
uSC(-2) to USC(-12.5) to Bama(-9.5) for 1.1 to win 1


Lots of road teams, or playing @ a neutral site. :leach:
 
Last edited:
Taking the family on one last vacation (beach house, central coast) next week...but should start playing some games when I get back.

Anyhow, posted this (below) quickly in another discussion the other night. Having 2nd thoughts already on LSU, lol...but will expand on (and add to) my early leans in a bit.




basically 3 weeks out... :dancing:

some early leans: bama, usc, lsu, wash, ole miss, ucla, okie lite, fsu

also kinda interested in jorga/clemson, scary/unc, and auburn/wazzou.
 
:shake:

Hope everything is good, haven't seen u inna minute. GL this season like always
 
some more (briefly) on my early leans...


South Carolina
would love to see this line come down a bit. i've put it @ 16.5 (my #s)...but i'd be lying to say i wasn't somewhat skeptical of the gamecocks at this point.

Tulsa
maybe i'm off base, but kinda wrong team favored imo. i've got this as a pick em on the road....but that (lack of) defense scares me.

Ole Miss
my #s actually put some value on vandy...but the disparity in the trenches, not to mention @ QB, has me really looking @ the rebels on the rd.

USC
the line is dead on with my #s, but i believe the improving trojans do all that they can to remove any lingering bad tastes from last season asap.

NCST
put this @ 18, so hopefully the new HC will make a statement vs lessor foe in hm opener.

N Illinois
history may be against me, but another game where i'm basically making this a pick em on the road. close call last yr...this yr, SU winner.

Alabama
my #s put this closer to 2 TDS, but see how the tide opened against michigan last year.

UAB
doubt i end up playing this...but w/ revenge from LY, UAB (slightly) the better team imo.

Oklahoma St
also put this one @ 18, and i think the cowboys will have their way offensively.

Oklahoma
put this one @ 28, so still a bit of value. nice tune up game for WVU next week.

Washington St
would love to see this line climb higher...as imo, it's already inflated. i make auburn only a TD fav here, and believe leach can keep this very competitive.

Georgia
what a great matchup, and will prolly just watch/enjoy this one. my #s put it as a pick em, which is right in line w/ things...but still (gut) lean to jorga.

LSU/TCU
initially leaned to LSU, but (like i mentioned) having 2nd thoughts here. will wait & see.

Washington
my # for this game is right where the line sits @ 4. ripe for revenge from LY's bowl.

UCLA
the damn line is already rising, so hopefully it'll come back. i'm admittedly a bruin fan, but there won't be any repeat of (NV) last yr opening in Cal.

Northwestern
speaking of the golden bears, lol...i make this an 11 pt win for the road team.

Florida St
made this 10 pts, so right in line...but the rd team simply outclasses the panthers.


anyhow, lots of games i'm looking at...and too many on the road...so we'll see what materializes &/or sticks over the next couple of weeks. still a lot to watch unfold, as we lead up to week one...and still a lot to read up on as the days go by. so hopefully most of the lines will sit tight, in the meantime, or even move in my favor lol.
 
tru said:
:shake:

Hope everything is good, haven't seen u inna minute. GL this season like always
Click to expand...

hey, mike. good to see you, bud. :cheers:
yeah, i disappear way too much...which seems to piss off Huntdiggitydog...but that's my life.

life's good though. kids are awesome, growing up too fast. about the only change is that i'm looking for work for the 1st time since i got outta college 20 yrs ago. had to sell the company i ran, as the owner's health deteriorated. was sad to sell & dismantle all that we had built over the years, and say goodbye, but didn't have a choice.
took the summer off w/ my kids. haven't had a vacation like this since before i was 16, lol...so kind of a cool (one time) change of pace. but will need to find a new gig here soon. we'll see what happens.

anyhow, hope all is well with you too. settle down yet?
 
Everything is good wit me, jus busy an business as normal. Nah not married yet, close though one day in tha future. Good to hear u had a nice summer break, like a lot of, ur leans. GL this season hope u crush.
 
It must be footsies season with a Yanks log-on ;)

Hope you have enjoyed the summer, talk to ya soon.
 
UCLA
the damn line is already rising, so hopefully it'll come back. i'm admittedly a bruin fan, but there won't be any repeat of (NV) last yr opening in Cal.

i know nothing about nevada but im thinkin this should be an easy 4 TD + win.

Our bruins are gonna be so fucking good this year. I can't wait :dancing:
 
tru said:
Everything is good wit me, jus busy an business as normal. Nah not married yet, close though one day in tha future. Good to hear u had a nice summer break, like a lot of, ur leans. GL this season hope u crush.
Click to expand...

thx, my friend. hope you do the same. :shake:


HUNT said:
GL John, hope you have a good year.
Click to expand...

thx, bud. hope all is well, and know you'll ave a good yr too. :shake:


@CTG_BAR said:
It must be footsies season with a Yanks log-on ;)

Hope you have enjoyed the summer, talk to ya soon.
Click to expand...

yep...and sounds good, nick. :shake:
 
twinkie13 said:
Why you wanna jump off LSU?
Click to expand...

was more jumping off the game, if that makes sense. just was reading so much positive about tcu that i was second guessing my initial lean.

will probably not touch this match up...but gun to the head, i'd still take/lean lsu.
 
sportjunky said:

i know nothing about nevada but im thinkin this should be an easy 4 TD + win.

Our bruins are gonna be so fucking good this year. I can't wait :dancing:
Click to expand...


gawd, that would be nice. :cheers:

honestly, i'm scared to get too high on them. back to back trips to stanford & oregon is gonna hurt...and the last 3 games will be a very tough stretch. they just gotta stay as healthy as possible though, and keep making steps forward.
 
@CTG_BAR said:
:hello:
Click to expand...

wish i could still stay up as late as you, lol. back in the day, remember being up all night...mostly chasing down the chinese/russian spammers. too old for that now.
:searching:

anyhow, should be making a move on some of these games/lines later in the week. been a minute since we used to break down games every week. :shake:
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
wish i could still stay up as late as you, lol. back in the day, remember being up all night...mostly chasing down the chinese/russian spammers. too old for that now.
:searching:

anyhow, should be making a move on some of these games/lines later in the week. been a minute since we used to break down games every week. :shake:
Click to expand...



Yup, times a change. 3-5 am est is my wind-down from work 5 days a week.

5 years ago, shit 10 years ago the busiest capping time was 3-4 am. Good ole days.

I am putting in a lot of time capping tomorrow. One play so far and we'll see if fire on a couple others.

Look forward to the Pac10/12 insight as always John :shake:
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
wish i could still stay up as late as you, lol. back in the day, remember being up all night...mostly chasing down the chinese/russian spammers. too old for that now.
:searching:

anyhow, should be making a move on some of these games/lines later in the week. been a minute since we used to break down games every week. :shake:
Click to expand...

need rj to come back an start his weekly Sunday morning coffee topics
 
@CTG_BAR said:
Yup, times a change. 3-5 am est is my wind-down from work 5 days a week.

5 years ago, shit 10 years ago the busiest capping time was 3-4 am. Good ole days.

I am putting in a lot of time capping tomorrow. One play so far and we'll see if fire on a couple others.

Look forward to the Pac10/12 insight as always John :shake:
Click to expand...


yep...some good times, bud. :shake:

love that night owl schedule though. wish i could pull it off.
 
tru said:
need rj to come back an start his weekly Sunday morning coffee topics
Click to expand...

ha...no shit. you'd think he could leave the ambulances alone for a morning. ;-)

seriously, times change though. know he's got much more important things going on with the family & company.
 
8 days

first few plays from that long list of leans above...

Ole Miss (-3) @ -115 for 1
Okie St (-12.5) for 1
Wash St (+15.5) for 1

ole miss starting to climb, so played it...up to 3.5 @ dimes this morning, but still listed like this @ BM for now.
not much chance of okie lite coming down enough (or to a significant #), so wanted to get it in before it rose to 13 or more.
and jumped on wazzou, because i was a bit concerned the line would fall vs climb as we get closer to the game.

looking hard @ another 6 of those 17 leans above, but still hoping/thinking the lines could move in my favor.

only other changes/editions to those same leans...
- starting to come back to LSU (vs laying off), lol
- very close to dropping Oklahoma as a lean
 
To say the least... I like your leans list. Either we both have a big weekend or we both get crushed. Good luck.
 
jumped on 2 more of those leans listed above. thanks to Phil, i can't imagine these lines would move in my favor anymore. quite the opposite, lol, via power sweep.

FSU (-10) for 1
UW (-3.5) for 1

anyhow...tulsa, n illy, uab, nw...i'm eyeballing you fuckers next. :wacky:
 
premature, but added 5 more from that long list of leans...just half plays for these, however.

Tulsa (+4) for 1/2
N Illinois (+3.5) for 1/2
UAB (+5) for 1/2
UCLA (-19.5) for 1/2
NW (-6) for 1/2

one week away... :drooling:
 
@CTG_BAR said:
Give us some quick UCLA thoughts por favor...
Click to expand...

other than the generic stuff above about their schedule...my only real concern is the secondary. ideally, their solid linebacking core will mask some of that though...especially with a solid rush/DL.

Pac-12 is very strong though, w/ their top 6 to 7 @ least. Stanford, Oregon, USC, Zona St, UW, UCLA, & OSU will all be good to great...and even Wazzou could surprise a bit.
The trip to Nebraska on 9/14 has the potential to be a hiccup...B2B Stanford/Oregon roadies in late October are brutal...and their last 3 games are a very rough stretch too, despite the lack of travel in November...so in all honesty, there's gonna be 4 (maybe 5, if something goes wrong) losses on that slate.

Love the coaching, finally...Hundley's only gonna improve, even if he's also most of the running game...and they're just very solid (w/out being exceptional) across the board...minus the DB situation though, and maybe the kicking game (to a lessor extent).
 
3+ days

two more additions...

Louisiana (+10.5) for .7
UGA/Clemson under 72 for .7

louisiana wasn't on my list of leans, but see that other thread i started about them. kept coming back to this game, and think they can win outright.
jorga was a strong lean, but ended up changing to the under instead. i may be off base, but i think that # is 10 pts too high for this epic/early matchup.

bring it to 12 plays already. threw out a couple of those leans...but what remains from that list are bama, usc, lsu, and scary...not to mention a couple 'new' possibilities.
anyhow, we'll see what materializes...if anything more. :cheers:
 
48 hrs

a couple more degenerate additions, action plays, so i'm not 'sitting out' friday or sunday...and a teaser involving 3 of the large favs i hadn't played yet from my initial leans.

SMU (+6) for 1/2
Colorado St (-3) @ -105 for 1/2

uSC(-2) to USC(-12.5) to Bama(-9.5) for 1.1 to win 1

that should about do it for week one. GL, boys.

:cheers:
 
^^ twinkie :shake:


yet another addition. was lookin at this game again the other day, but was always worried about the backdoor cover. saw that dr bob was on them today, and found a variation of the game i really liked instead of the spread.

Fresno TT ov 32.5 @ -115 for 1

whether rutgers can hang with the bulldogs offensively or not remains to be seen. but the one thing i'm confident about is that Carr & that receiving core will have their way tonight. if they fail to put up a minimum of 35 pts on that secondary, i'd be flat out shocked...as they should be in the 40s at the end of things.
 
Yanks27Sox7 said:
Thurs. 8/29
Ole Miss (-3) @ -115 for 1 W
Fresno TT ov 32.5 @ -115 for 1 W
Tulsa (+4) for 1/2 L
Fri. 8/30
SMU (+6) for 1/2 L
Sat. 8/31
Okie St (-12.5) for 1 W
Wash St (+15.5) for 1 W
UW (-3.5) for 1 W
Louisiana (+10.5) for .7 L
UGA/Clemson under 72 for .7 L
N Illinois (+3.5) for 1/2 W
UAB (+5) for 1/2 W
UCLA (-19.5) for 1/2 W
NW (-6) for 1/2W
Sun. 9/1
Colorado St (-3) @ -105 for 1/2 L
Mon. 9/2
FSU (-10) for 1
Holiday Weekend Teaser
uSC(-2) to USC(-12.5) to Bama(-9.5) for 1.1 to win 1 W
Click to expand...

^^ 10-5, with FSU pending tonight. Not a bad start, but really thought it would be a bit better than that.



Yanks27Sox7 said:
some more (briefly) on my early leans...

NCST
put this @ 18, so hopefully the new HC will make a statement vs lessor foe in hm opener.

Oklahoma
put this one @ 28, so still a bit of value. nice tune up game for WVU next week.
Click to expand...

^^ wish i didn't toss these leans. but overall, week one was capped pretty well...other than 4 of the 5 losses, of course.
and i'm very satisfied with how week one turned out for the Pac-12 as a whole. gonna be a good year for the conference, and for betting it.
 
some early week two stuff... :cheers:

spent saturday night, and part of sunday, updating my numbers. watched the lines come out yesterday afternoon, move around some...but didn't jump on anything right outta the gate, unfortunately.
a lot of the lines were set pretty tight...and to be honest, there's something to this week that has me hesitant/skeptical (or something to that effect)...and it's not just all the FCS vs FBS games, lol.


anyhow, did make my first two plays this afternoon...

Arizona (-10) for 1
SJST (+26.5) for 1

also have some early leans to analyze some more...

Boston College
Miami
Temple
Cincinnati
Georgia
SDST
Utah St
Tulane
Ball St
Notre Dame


btw...if you like wazzou at usc, the value is gone. it has already corrected to where it should be at (14 to 14.5 pts)...and yes, that's the one game i wish i would've jumped on outta the gate. shame on me, lol.
anyhow, more on week two once this week is completed. go FSU!!!
 
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