Illinois is close, but it's about more than just finishing
By Matt Hinton
Missouri was invincible in '07 except in one circumstance, which only repeated itself once: in two meeting against Oklahoma, Chase Daniel was hurried, hit, picked, hemmed in as a scrambler and forced into critical fumbles, and the Sooners duly handed Mizzou its only losses. The only other team that managed a positive turnover margin against the Tigers was Illinois State; against everyone else, Daniel and Co. were +18.
'Everyone else' included Illinois, who at this point last year was still generally regarded as a laughingstock; when Eddie McGee, going in for a go-ahead touchdown in the second quarter, instead fumbled away what became a 99-yard ouchdown return and a 14-point swing for Misouri, I texted a Zook-hating Gator fan, "Well, same old Illinois, I see." You could say that turnovers (Missouri was +3) were the only real difference between the Tiger and Illini offenses on the scoreboard, and the box score -- they were essential even in yards and first downs -- back that up. And the Illini made it a game with its starting quarterback on the bench, no less.
But no matter how improved Juice Williams is as a passer, or what kind of physical specimen Arrelious Benn is, Illinois' success will hing on how comfortable Daniel is in the pocket. If there's one player on Missouri's schedule that can hope to match up with Jeremy Maclin without consistent help, it's Vontae Davis, and if Illinois has one head-to-head advantage, it's the deep rotation of pass-rushing ends against a
reshuffled Tiger line. So there is some hope that, even without a Rashard Mendenhall-level threat in the backfield, the offense will be better at holding on to the ball and the defense can put enough pressure on Daniel to produce a few stops and force a critical mistake or two that will keep the score within reach.
Again, though, the only team that got in Daniel's face as a matter of course was the only one that could even pretend it had better athletes across the field than Missouri, and even Oklahoma was gashed for 418 yards and 31 points on its own field in the regular season -- OU made up the winning ten-point margin, again, in turnovers.
As many weapons and quick-hitting tactics (bubble screens, delayed screens, trap-heavy misdirection runs, etc.) as the Tigers have to deploy against man coverage or over-aggression on the Illini's part, and as precise as Daniel has been the overwhelming majority of the last two years, if the Illini can't make them one-dimensional and bring pressure from the edges without relying on steady blitzes, even four full quarters of Juice isn't likely to be enough to make up for the deluge the Tigers are capable of bringing forth.