CFB ML dogs week 9

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 26-43, 37.68%, +16.46 units

that's better. Dogs have been good this year. Last week by my count, 17 dogs won outright, and quite a few more had a serious legitimate shot at the win...notably Auburn....fuck LSU for taking 4.25 units from me.

I'd say on to next week, but I don't see any numbers yet. And since all my plays are totally number dependant...I gotta wait.

possibles:
Boston College
Air Force
Indiana
Northwestern
Pitt
Duke
Miami OH
Southern Cal
EMU
Georgia
Rice
Stanford (>450)
South Carolina
NIU
Rutgers(>210)
UTEP
California
NMSU
Cent Florida

possible spreads
tOSU -4
Sparty -3
SMU/Tulsa Over



Plays

Boston College +150 - W
Air Force +210 - L
Pitt +395
Rice +270
Rutgers +210
Indiana +250
Georgia +278.8
Southern Cal +135
Washington St +202ish
Ohio +250.88
Stanford +450

tOSU -4 (-101)
South FL -4 (-110)
Utah -6 (-102)
 
at first glance...

Boston College @ VPI - +3 is kinda light, but there's no doubt in my mind that BC has the better offense. If they can keep the Tech special teams spectaculars to a minimum, then I think the BC defense will make VPI's offense look asinine. And Matt Ryan likely won't make so many mistakes that the VT defense will pounce on.

Air Force @ New Mexico - I think I might get enough value here that I HAVE to bet it, but this would be one of those toss-up sorts of things. The questions in my mind are will Air Force be able to stop UNM's pass attack, and will Air Force be able to option through the New Mexico defense.........or will AFA simply pass a lot more this time? Anyway, I should get over 2:1, and I'll take it.

Boise St @ Fresno St - I want more than what I'd get for +3...I think Boise St is better.

South Florida @ Connecticut - like last week...only USF plays some defense. No play on the huskies for me, I think.

Indiana @ Wisconsin - oh hell yeah. Indi isn't NIU...and I don't believe Wisky suddenly learned to play defense right before week 8's game.......7.5 should yield plenty of value.

Northwestern @ Purdue - if Purdue doesn't play better defense (last week against Iowa doesn't count), then NW may very well win another one...

UNC @ Wake Forest - I don't like it. I think the Heels will have a lot of trouble with the discipline on WF...

Pitt @ Louisville - If it's stupid high like the Auburn number was, then I may well play this, but I'm not sure Pitt really beat cinci so much as cinci beat cinci....the question here is, will Louisville's defensive incompetence actually out-idiot the Pitt offense?

Ball St @ Illinois - oh, I doubt this...

Duke @ Florida St - I doubt this one less than Ball St, and there might actually be enough value on Duke to bother...

Minnesota @ Michigan - I wanted to play NDSU last week, but sadly it woulda been a chalk play. Minny is garbage. They make me want to puke. Mike Hart should win this one...even if he doesn't play.

Ole Miss @ Auburn - can't play this one. I've been much too impressed by Auburn the last few weeks to even consider it.

Iowa St @ Mizzou - I'd rather shit in my own eyes than put money on ISU.

Miami Oh @ Vanderbilt - letdown for Vandy perhaps? Can't think of a reason to support Miami...

Akron @ Buffalo - no value

CMU @ Kent - no value

perhaps they're catching on to the MAC oddities...

Baylor @ KState - pfft.

Kansas @ Texas A&M - 2.5 seems like some cheap chalk to me. I don't know how TAMU will stop the Kansas passing attack.

Colorado @ Texas Tech - that one's going to be a particularly tough out for the Buffs, methinks...course if TT throws more picks than they have first downs again........

UNLV @ Wyoming - I'd say that's high, but I don't seem to have a read on UNLV at all. If I play it, then it'll be after a lot of poking around...

SMU @ Tulsa - you can't say that SMU probably has a stiffer defense very often, but this one might be better off an over play...

Memphis @ Tulane - no value

Southern Cal @ Oregon - I guess you can't make the ducks a home dog at Autzen, but it ain't often you can get SC as a dog...

Louie Tech @ Utah St - I think that line's about right. likely no value anyway.

Arizona @ Washington - Now 3 or 4 here is definitely cheap chalk. Tuitama lives for spectacularly losing games like this.

W Michigan @ EMU - at 2:1, I'll be on EMU...the West ain't good this year. at all.

UAB @ East Carolina - I learned my lesson on these kids last week. What a joke of a team. Pirates should roll here.

Georgia @ Florida - ........+9 seems high.

Michigan St @ Iowa - -3 seems low to me. But then, I have zero respect for Iowa's so-called offense.

Clemson @ Maryland - again, -3 seems low to me. Can the tigers lose another one like this? I likely won't do anything with this one, either.

UVA @ NC State - I didn't play NCSU last week, and my boys got it done. I'll be shocked if they repeat that performance...might lay the Cav chalk. It'll depend on pressman, I guess...though Mikell Simpson managed a remarkable performance against MD.

Nebraska @ Texas - too bad I think that line's about right...

Idaho @ Nevada - .......not sure this is -value-......+17....

I'll think some tomorrow, perhaps....now isn't good thinking time.
 
Boise St @ Fresno St - I want more than what I'd get for +3...I think Boise St is better.
Click to expand...

I agree, but I just read in RJ's thread that Johnson is out. I don't think Boise St. is better without their best rusher and team leader...
 
Does anybody understand this Colorado line?? two touchdowns seems like alot. Colorado has proven more thus far in the season against more quality opponents. Also, West Virginia going to Rutgers at over 6 seems high to me as well.
 
first look, I like Cal a lot. Asu's D won't be able to stop the run and the Cal offense will go off.

It was a bad matchup for Cal with UCLA's D cuz Cal needs balance, and Tedford kept tryin to run on UCLA, but he failed to realize teams can't run on UCLA's defense, especially out of a pro-style offense with a statue at QB.

Asu hasn't really been tested yet either. I like Cal to bounce back with an important Win.
 
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Rice @ Marshall - +9 might yield an interesting number...

Utah @ Colorado St - Utah is getting back in stride, and while CSU did well against UNLV, I don't think this will turn into a winning streak. I'll be more likely to have a Utah chalk ticket.

Stanford at Oregon St - at 450 again, why the hell not? I'm sure someone will tell me, but TREE has performed impressively over the last month....DAMNED impressive.

UCLA @ Washington St - Oh, I don't know if I want to go with 2:1 in the hope that Cowan gets hurt...

South Carolina @ Tennessee - I think the wrong team is favored. I'll look around for the SEC guys' opinions, but I'm going to be a big ol dumb public fool again and bet on the better team. 135 sucks ass, tho. Damnit, I want 150.

Northern Illinois @ Toledo - NO WAY should NIU win this game, thus since it's against toledo in toledo, I'm thinking the rockets to crash and burn is the play. If Dr Bob gives me 2:1 on it, then I might take the shot.

Miss St @ Kentucky - I don tink so.

West VA @ Rutgers - oh! better than 2:1 on Rutgers at home! AGain!. I'll do that in all likelihood.

Ohio St @ Penn St - at this low-ass number, I'll be a big dumb public moron again and bet the better team's chalk. Morelli should win this one for tOSU.

Houston @ UTEP - fading Houston didn't work out so well last week. UTEP is marginally more competent than UAB, though, and I think it's an excellent spot to see if the cougars can play defense and not commit turnovers again. I should be able to dig up 150 somewheres on this...

BYU @ SDSU - the Aztecs big chance was last week. They won't win this one.

Cal @ AZ St - damnit....at 150, I'll have to play it. And I want to...just too cheap right now, and it's unlikely to go up imo.

New MExico St @ Hawaii - something to consider......if Chase is healthy, then the Lobos will certainly have value. Hawaii stil can't play D worth a shit. Lookin forward to HG's thoughts on this one.

FLINT @ Arkansas - if another +10,000 number wins one, I likely won't be on it...and sure as hell not this one.

UL Monroe @ Florida Atlantic - I actually think this is a good line.

Troy @ Arky St - Troy or nothing.

MTSU @ North Texas - UNT has had a couple shots at a win this year, but this won't be one they get.

Central FL @ Southern Miss - at 150, I'll play em...that RB is great, and Smiss might be settling their QB issues down...but then they might not.
 
Speaking of wrong teams favored ... can someone explain how michigan state is the favorite at Iowa ?? Iowa has to be a value on the ml since they should be laying points in this spot.
 
Well, since Iowa sucks male rat tit on the offensive side of the ball, I kinda disagree with you...why do you think Iowa should be laying points?
 
Greek still hasn't released any lines, and BM only has the weekday games out, but here's where I am.

Boston College - 150, 145, 140

Air Force - 195, 205, 210

Indiana - 260, 250

Northwestern - 350, 370 - really want 400 or more for this galactic insanity

Pitt - 340, 350

Duke - 700...I was thinking closer to 850 or so...

Miami OH - 450

Southern Cal - 125, 125...I want more, damnit, but maybe I should just make it a pk spread play

EMU - 190, 200

Georgia - 280, 280 ...really think 3:1 is required before I seriously consider fading UF again

Rice - nuthin yet...

Stanford - 450,

South Carolina - 135, 135

NIU - 145, 150, and I want 2:1 to seriously consider bothering with this crap

Rutgers - 210, 210

UTEP - 150, 145

California - 135, 135

NMSU - 2250

Cent Florida - nuthin yet
 
The reason that Iowa should be favored in this game is that they match up incredibly well vs what michigan state brings to the table.

The spartans have struggled this year when they have been faced with a defense that stops the run effectively. Lets look at the two games where mich st has played good rush defenses.

home to pittsburgh
Michigan State had a very difficult time scoring. They rushed the ball 51 times for 144 yards. 2.8 a carry. The team scored 17 points in this game .... but it is even worse than it appears. 7 points came on a defensive td and their two scoring drives were also the result of turnovers as their td drive started at the PITT 35 after a turnover and their FG drive started at the PITT 22 yard line after another PITT turnover. They held on to win this game 17-13.

AT OHIO STATE
Now granted the buckeyes have an incredible defense but michigan state was held to just 9 fd for the whole game ! Again, 28 rushes 59 yards at 2.1 a carry. They scored just 17 points again and this time they had two defensive td instead of the one vs PITT. Their sole scoring drive was a 8 play 56 yard drive that resulted in a fg.

Michigan State simply cannot score when their run game is stifled.
Iowa at home has stifled the run.

Lets look at Iowa rush defense at home along with their general performance.

Home to CUSE .. Iowa 35 cuse 0
ok its syracuse but even so this should be impressive defensive numbers vs the run if it was Hanks High School, El Paso Texas.
syracuse had just 5 fd the entire game
they rushed the ball 30 times for 24 yards at 0.80 yards per carry.
syracuse had 103 total yards.
FD AND YARDAGE ADVANTAGE FOR IOWA
cuse 5 fd 103 yards, iowa 22 fd 408 yards

Home to Indiana ..Hoosiers 38 Iowa 20
deceiving score here.
indiana rushed the ball 35 times for just 73 yards at 2.1 a carry
FD AND YARDAGE ADVANTAGE FOR IOWA
indiana 17 fd 395 yards , IOWA 22 fd 428 yards
keep in mind part of the deceiving score was a 71 yard offensive fluke fumble recovery for a td down the sideline. sure most remember from espn highlights.

at home to Illinois illini 6 iowa 10

illinois rushed for 137 yards on 35 attempts , 3.9 a carry
FD AND YARDAGE ADVANTAGE FOR IOWA
illinois 15 fd 287 yards, iowa 21 fd 323 yards

Iowa stops the run at home, they have outplayed their opponents fairly consistently in their own house , save indiana who they were either even with or slightly outplayed.

This is also a terrible spot for michigan state. second consecutive road game after second straight loss the week before they host their big in state rival michigan. iowa on the other hand returns home after a loss to pass minded purdue on the road and has northwestern on deck.

also add in the fact that michigan state never wins in iowa. i think the last time they won in iowa the first george bush was just going into office ( 1989 ). They have lost their last two games in Iowa city by final scores of 38-16 and 44-16.

The combination of match up and spot makes this a great looking play to me, Red. I know Iowa sucks donkey balls but so do a lot of dogs that you are forced to play when you get the right value. May not convince you to take them, but I those are some of the resons i like iowa here. i already played them plus the points and am considering the ml as well.
 
@ Wisky, each was a 7 pt dog. Both covered, but that's wisky's no-defense style...the difference is that Iowa scored 13 on Wisky. Sparty scored 34.

Interesting. Iowa was a 9.5 point fave when hosting Indiana, and Sparty was a 3.5pt fave. Iowa got spanked by 18, and Sparty won 52-27.

My big gripe about Iowa really starts with their Iowa St game. After that loss, it was like a different team replaced them. Reality is, I think, that they came back down to earth. They've given up a bunch of TDs and had a helluva time getting any themselves, and if Illinois was at all competent in the passing game, Iowa would have lost that game too. I do have to say that Iowa held Illinois' run game in check. Gotta agree there.

But Sparty's got a different sort of running attack.

And again, I don't see how Iowa scores any TDs at all. Call it...24-9 Sparty.

Iowa does have a good defense. Rush defense is right around 32 with Michigan, Zona, Sparty, and Oklahoma St. Iowa's passing defense is 32nd and on par with MTSU and Temple's. Which, okay, that's fine..

but Iowa is 110th in total offense, 93rd in rushing offense, and 89th in passing offense. (Iowa St is better in all categories if that tells you anything) Imagine Iowa's offense going up against Iowa's defense, because that's essentially what they're about to do. Iowa's offense is right up there with Eastern Michigan and UAB...and in points scored per game, they're only better than Notre Dame and Florida International.

Yes, I do play bad teams, but only when they have a legitimate edge or some factor in value, and I don't believe Iowa has either.

GL on your wager. I likely won't be on this game at all.

...Under might be a good bet depending on the number. like...anything over 40...
 
I like the Indiana play only because of how well they played last week and their QB
 
Great job last week Red. Hope you got some juicy dogs this week as well. Any thoughts on Indiana?
 
Rice +270

this one is a joke in several ways (should be over 3:1 considering the +9) but I can only see it going down.
 
Stanford's up to 475.....I wonder if I can get 5:1 out of it...or if I should just take the 475...looks damned good to me. maybe a 30% chance to win...maybe as much as 1 in 3........and I'm getting 475...I may well lose it, but damn that's a good number.
 
Northern Illinois has creeped up...still, I want 2:1, and THEN I have to smoke some crack before I play that one...
 
Rutgers has dropped a smidge at a couple books, and for some reason there isn't even an offer at bookmaker.

interesting...

http://www.dailymail.com/story/Sports/WVU Sports/2007102312/Injuries-plague-WVU-Rutgers-QBs/

Injuries plague WVU, Rutgers QBs
By Mike Casazza
Daily Mail sportswriter
MORGANTOWN -- The status of the starting quarterbacks for Saturday's game between No. 6 West Virginia and No. 25 Rutgers is questionable while both deal with injuries.

Patrick White has left the past three games with injuries -- right thigh against South Florida, left shoulder/chest against Syracuse and Mississippi State -- but his coach, Rich Rodriguez, sounded optimistic that White should heal in time to start at noon and on ABC's split-national telecast.

White started against the Bulldogs Saturday and scored on a 64-yard run on the first play from scrimmage, but was hit hard in the second quarter and did not play in the second half.

"I think he'll be better," Rodriguez said. "He could have played in the second half, but he was sore because he didn't take a shot for the pain. I think the pain was bothering him a little bit, but with the lead we had, we chose to keep him out.''

Rutgers' Mike Teel continues to be bothered by his right thumb that he smacked against a teammate's helmet while passing Oct. 6 against Cincinnati. He has aggravated the injury in each of the past two games, both wins, and admits to being in a great deal of pain.

Both quarterbacks practiced Monday and their coaches were eager to see how they performed.

"We'll probably know better afterward," said Schiano, whose team beat then-No. 2 South Florida, 30-27, Thursday. "He's better now and the thing that's helped him is Friday, Saturday, Sunday without throwing the football to let that thing quiet down. Hopefully he throws well. We'll have to see how effective he is."

Teel's backup, Jabu Lovelace, has played in five games and completed 2-of-5 passes for 28 yards. He frequently enters the game to run the ball, though, and has 26 carries for 138 yards and two scores this season.
Click to expand...

Teel's pretty confident, tho...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3074818&campaign=rss&source=NCFHeadlines

Teel has bruised hand but plans to be on field Saturday

PISCATAWAY, N.J. -- Rutgers quarterback Mike Teel vowed to play against West Virginia (No. 7 BCS; No. 6 AP) despite being limited in practice on Monday because of a bruised right throwing hand.

"That's not happening," Teel said when asked if he might miss Saturday's game for the Scarlet Knights (No. 25 AP). "Not happening. I will be there."

Coach Greg Schiano came very close to lifting Teel in the fourth quarter of Thursday night's 30-27 win over then-No. 2 South Florida because the redshirt junior had trouble griping and throwing the ball.

Teel hurt his right thumb against Cincinnati on Oct. 6 and the injury now involves a bruised hand.

"You hit a helmet and it's a bruise," said Teel, who has thrown for 1,996 yards and 14 touchdowns. "It goes from you hand to your thumb, it's all the same kind of area. It's a bruise."

Teel's hand was wrapped in white gauze and adhesive tape on Monday.

"He's sore," Schiano said of Teel after practice. "He couldn't do a ton, but he did enough."

Despite being in his second full season as a starter, Schiano said Teel needs to practice to play. He also has faith that his quarterback would let him know if he could not.

"I trust Mike," Schiano said. "Mike will tell me the truth. All our kids will, but Mike won't go over to try to be a hero. Winning is the most important thing to him and he would let me know."

Teel agreed with his coach, to a degree.

"I'll have to tell him after I am out there once, but I will be out there," Teel said. "I don't have any worry that that will be the case. I'll work with the training staff. They do a great job and I'll be ready to go."

Schiano said his biggest concern is that Teel is not throwing the ball as well as he can.

"He needs to keep his timing with the receivers and run some of the new things we have in for this game plan," Schiano said. "Running the game, he is fine. He runs the game, he understands clock management. ... It's delivering the football, timing with the receivers and putting the ball where it needs to be."

If Teel could not start, Jabu Lovelace would probably go. He has been Teel's backup the past two seasons, although most of his work in recent games has come in running situations.

"I have the utmost confidence in Jabu," Schiano said.

Teammates have faith that Teel will be the starter when the Scarlet Knights (5-2, 2-1) takes the field at Rutgers Stadium for their Big East Conference showdown with West Virginia (6-1, 1-1).

"Mike is a tough guy," halfback Ray Rice said. "As much as you need practice, Mike is a leader. He knows this offense really well. He'll be in there watching film and he'll be ready to go."

Game notes
Rice was named the conference offensive player of the week for gaining 181 yards rushing on a career-high 39 carries in the upset of South Florida. He became the first runner in 15 games to rush for at least 100 yards against the Bulls. He was also the last, gaining 202 yards in Tampa last season.
Click to expand...
 
hahahhahaa.....

Someone took FLINT. It was at +10,000, but now it's only at +7500...

for the record, it wasn't me.
 
Central Florida is at +3....I see 125 for it. Should be 140 at least...probably should be over 1.5, though.

oh well...maybe I'll just play the spread.
 
MasterCap said:
Do you like Miami Oh Red?
Click to expand...

not since week 1. It might be a pretty good value play on the ML, but I fully expect Vandy to win. About the only thing we can say about fading Vandy is the letdown possibility, and I have essentially nothing good to say about Miami...

GL if you play it.
 
Boston College - +150

Air Force - +210

Indiana - 260, 250, 255, 258. Suckage. I was hoping this would be higher.

Northwestern - 375, 350, 370, 400. There's 4:1...and wagerline has 70% picks on Purdont. I'm thinking this one goes up higher...

Pitt - 395

Duke - 775, 800, BM and Greek have 800 for this one. I think that's pretty worth it, but I would like Very Worth It in this case. I can shit on FSU's offense all day, and contrary to what we saw last week with these two teams, I think both FSU and Miami have some pretty damned good defensive talent.

Miami OH - 450, 525, 460. 5 and a quarter...wow. Now that's more like it. Thing is, I really don't like this team. They squeaked by Ball St and lost to Minny in OT, and that's nice, but neither of those teams plays any sort of defense. Cinci and Colorado creamed em, they got by Kent St, and brutalized BGSU...but they really should beat them...

I will say this...I think Raudabaugh is a damn sight better than Kokal was. Temple actually has a very good passing defense, and the kid still went 33 of 57 for 314 yards with 2 TD and 2 picks. the INTs weren't terrible throws, as I recall...so much as opportunistic catches by Temple's secondary off tips. Not sure Vandy's secondary is as good as Temple's. Yes. I said it. And I meant it.

Southern Cal - 130, 125, 130, 130....that's moved up a smidge. Interesting...

EMU - 180, 185, 190, 185. This one's moved down. I'm not surprised. I might end up priced out of this one, and really, that's okay. Not sure if I can back EMU again...tho if Andy Schmitt can go that would certainly be a step up...

Georgia - 280, 280, 295, 260 Bookmaker has the better line right now. Cox will have to have a great day passing, because I doubt Florida's going to let Georgia do a lot of rushing.

Rice - 270

Stanford - 450, 475, 450, 460. We're stepping up a smidge...that's something.

South Carolina - 135, 135, 135, 135......ah, variety......

NIU - 145, 150, 150, 150 and I still want 2:1 to seriously consider bothering with this crap

Rutgers - 210

UTEP - 150, 150, 150, 140 .....perhaps this will go up too...

California - 135, 145, 125, 135 ....not sure what to make of the up and down business here...

NMSU - 2250...HG likes Hawaii in this one a lot. perhaps I should just forget about it...I really kinda figured he'd be on NMSU. ...it is true that the Lobos haven't traveled well thus far...

Cent Florida - 125, 125, 125, and nothing at the greek yet. I kinda like this one a lot...
 
NMSU - 2250...HG likes Hawaii in this one a lot. perhaps I should just forget about it...I really kinda figured he'd be on NMSU. ...it is true that the Lobos haven't traveled well thus far...
Click to expand...

That, and the Lobos are still...well...the Lobos...
 
oh look! Penn St's back in the top 25 just in time to get assraped by the buckeyes!

lucky them....

Question. How does Morelli react to facing one of the best defenses in the country? Perhaps he should be named MorePicksy?

the line dropped from -4 to -3.5

recent injuries:

Penn State Nittany Lions

Dontey Brown LB Ques Sat - Arm - 10/23/07
Sustained a bruise on his arm in Week 8 and could miss Saturday's game against Ohio State.

Mike Lucian G Doub Sat - Concussion - 10/23/07
Unlikely to be available Saturday against Ohio State as he recovers from a concussion.

Jarome Hayes LB out for season - Knee - 10/23/07
Underwent season ending knee surgery.

Jared Odrick DT out for season - Ankle - 10/23/07
Suffered a broken ankle and will miss the rest of the season.

Matt Hahn RB out for season - Knee - 10/23/07
Suffered a torn ACL and will miss the rest of the season.

Not sure the Penn St defense can't just fill up any holes those guys left. That's one thing for the last couple years........PSU has had a damned fine and deep defense. But I think Ohio St's is just as good and deep - it's one reason they're still so good after losing 812 starters to the draft last year. and Boekman and Chris Wells are getting better and better for the Buckeyes.

I think this will be a DD win..like 21-7. Maybe 24-9. So I filled up my wager at MB. It works out to about -101 after the commission.

tOSU -4 (-101)
 
redbearde said:
yeah...they should suck as the 7th best passing attack in the nation versus a Hawaii defense which, to be polite, I'll call suspect....
Click to expand...

I don't disagree, but it just seems like this Hawaii team plays different at home. Their defense always looks so much faster and aggressive when they play at home. WTF do I know...

Like tOSU, as well. GLTY...
 
counselor said:
I don't disagree, but it just seems like this Hawaii team plays different at home. Their defense always looks so much faster and aggressive when they play at home. WTF do I know...
Click to expand...

The refs also give them calls at home. Not complaining - just....it is what it is. I had Hawaii a few years ago when Michigan St flew out to the islands and got fucked over by the calls. It was hysterical to me...not so funny to the Spartans.

:tiphat:
 
Ball State RB?? what do you think?..I'm thinking of adding them to a ML play.

Illinois can't defend the pass for shit, but Ball can't defend the run either...so I'm kinda hesitant, but 4.5-1 is pretty good.
 
ball st doesn't defend at all for shit, and I think Juice won't have to pass. Still......Ball St can score...Nate Davis has numbers that rival Colt Brennan. And illinois is up there with Northwestern at defending the pass.

Best I see is 475 right now, and I think I want 5:1...but Illinois is on a small losing streak, Juice can't stay healthy through a whole game, an dif Ball St can turn this into a shootout, then they do have a shot to win.
 
Boston College - +150

Air Force - +210

Indiana - 250s, and even a 240. This shit has done nothing but drop. Guess I'll take it before I lose any more value. +250

Northwestern - 375, 350, 380, 400. Creeped up again........but best number is still the same. Still waiting.

Pitt - +395

Duke - 700, 750, 800, and it looks like someone hit Duke at BM...still waiting. May skip this one.

Miami OH - 460, 475, 450. 525 is gone.......alas.

Southern Cal - 120, 135, 130, 125....that's one's hovering, tho 135 is higher yet again.

EMU - 190, 178, 185, 180. This one's moved down Again.

Georgia - 280, 285, 295, 260 Bookmaker still has the better line. Almost 3:1...almost.

Rice - +270

Stanford - 450, 475, 450, 450. eh...no change, really.

South Carolina - 135, 135, 140, 130. We had another creep up here...I'm thinking I might had better take that 140, and I guess if it doesn't get better before Dr Bob tomorrow that I will...

NIU - 145, 150, 150, 140 and I still want 2:1 to seriously consider bothering with this crap

Rutgers - +210

UTEP - 150, 150, 150, 140 no change.

California - 130, 140, 140, 135 ....this one looks to me like it might just get to 150....

NMSU - 2250...nothing at the greek...2000 at BM, still 2250 at 5dimes...

Cent Florida - 125, 120, 115, 115. Ass. moving down...not surprising, but still irritating.
 
I'm tempted to take a few...particularly some short ones like southern cal, cal, and south carolina.

I'm kicking myself for not taking the 525 when I saw it on Miami Oh....but at the time I was still wondering if wanted to bother with that one at all.

Perhaps Dr Bob will create some more value for me...that's pretty much what I'm waiting for now.

Chris Williams being out pretty much seals the question of whether or not to take NMSU...
 
Yeah, it's been there for a few days, and it might be a winner.......just not sure it's a spot I want to take. I'd really like another dollar and a half on that line.
 
Georgia +278.8 - it's even down to 220 at WSEX...I'll take it while I can still get it.

managed to pick up part of my UGA bet at MB at 296.....got the rest at 260...blech.

Works out to almost 280. That's something...
 
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Colin Wynner
CFB Bowl Week #2 Pick Pool Trends
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Colin Wynner
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