CFB ML dogs week 8
- Thread starter redbearde
- Start date
BigRaktor
Mr. Incredible?
I was just going to ask your thoughts here...I think Tulane is a great spot this week. SMU cannot stop anyone...49% Opp 3rd down conversion rate w/ it actually going up to 57% @ home. Also think Temple is a solid play. Temple has a decent Opp 3rd down conv rate at 35%. Miami-O is lopsided on this angle too. Locked in both Tulane and Temple @ +225
:cheers:
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Rutgers - no play. no value = no play. Maybe dr bob will give me value, but I won't hold my breath.
Memphis - my anti memphis bigotry stops me from playing this one, but rice as a fave is still a joke. Course...memphis as a road fave is a joke too...
Miss St - no play
Washington - not fading the ducks. There might be value at 4:1, but I think Oregon is too likely to win.
Tulsa - They don't play enough defense to consider playing without at least a dollar overtop. need 2:1, and there's no chance I get it.
Stanford - 380 is the best number now. And that sucks...still, I think I'll get more.
UAB - 400 and rising. I'm being patient here...matador suggested this might be a dr bob play, and if it is I'll quite a bit better than this...
Illinois - 120, 115, 125...and Hart has a high ankle sprain. Still not sure what I want to do with this one...
Idaho - 285, 300...it's gone down. I still want to know about Chase Holbrook before I touch it...but anyway, Idaho has won the last 3 straight up. Figure that out...
Memphis - my anti memphis bigotry stops me from playing this one, but rice as a fave is still a joke. Course...memphis as a road fave is a joke too...
Miss St - no play
Washington - not fading the ducks. There might be value at 4:1, but I think Oregon is too likely to win.
Tulsa - They don't play enough defense to consider playing without at least a dollar overtop. need 2:1, and there's no chance I get it.
Stanford - 380 is the best number now. And that sucks...still, I think I'll get more.
UAB - 400 and rising. I'm being patient here...matador suggested this might be a dr bob play, and if it is I'll quite a bit better than this...
Illinois - 120, 115, 125...and Hart has a high ankle sprain. Still not sure what I want to do with this one...
Idaho - 285, 300...it's gone down. I still want to know about Chase Holbrook before I touch it...but anyway, Idaho has won the last 3 straight up. Figure that out...
bill_swerski
New Member
Ditka like MSU ML
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
Dr Bob value plays...
San Jose St +450
Garf has a good analysis on this one...good value, I think. Really, the talent level isn't that big, and I really do think SJSU has at least a 30% chance at winning this one.
Stanford +425
that'll do.
Thanks to that rat-fink FUCK Dr Bob, Illinois is no longer under consideration.....however, thanks to the generosity of that rat-fink FUCK Dr Bob, Michigan is.
I am not surprised by the play on Troy by Dr Bob.......thing is...at 21.5 or so, I gotta give fading troy st some thought..........I don't like that, mind you, but I gotta give it some thought.
why the hell did that rat-fink FUCK not take Houston...?
San Jose St +450
Garf has a good analysis on this one...good value, I think. Really, the talent level isn't that big, and I really do think SJSU has at least a 30% chance at winning this one.
Stanford +425
that'll do.
Thanks to that rat-fink FUCK Dr Bob, Illinois is no longer under consideration.....however, thanks to the generosity of that rat-fink FUCK Dr Bob, Michigan is.
I am not surprised by the play on Troy by Dr Bob.......thing is...at 21.5 or so, I gotta give fading troy st some thought..........I don't like that, mind you, but I gotta give it some thought.
why the hell did that rat-fink FUCK not take Houston...?
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I got a bunch for this week!
Temple
Vanderbilt
Navy** (Best play)
Texas Tech
Miami* (2nd best play)
Temple
Vanderbilt
Navy** (Best play)
Texas Tech
Miami* (2nd best play)
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
I like Kentucky, but I think it's a sucker play. They could get smoked.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
this thread made me change my mind and violate my rule. I swear some people just don't feel like doing any research. Louisville should get some points...but they won't be able to stop UCONN's run game.
at all.
I think it's better than 50% likely that UCONN wins this.
Connecticut +138.18
MB makes for irritating recordkeeping.
at all.
I think it's better than 50% likely that UCONN wins this.
Connecticut +138.18
MB makes for irritating recordkeeping.
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yea we'll see if they're a fraud tonight...
and rain increases our chances, one would think
and rain increases our chances, one would think
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
and if anyone's interested in the newest info on the wanna-be felon who tried breaking into my house....
The sheriff investigator just came by with some news.
The vandal's name is Brandon Anderson, and he was released into his mother's custody. Joy. Had I been home on Saturday morning, I might well have blown away a kid. I suggested to the cop to impress upon him how profoundly dangerous it is to be attempting to break in to someone's home...especially around here where just about everyone owns at least a rifle for hunting. With the stick to my fence down at my neighbor's house, the investigator said that's probably enough probable cause to arrest and charge the boy. So that's something. The investigator left with the lamp and the flower pot we had out there that I'm pretty sure young Mr Anderson ripped down. With some luck, young Mr Anderson's fingerprints will be on one or both.
His grandmother apparently lives off of Long Hollow rd...which is within a drunken stagger's (a long drunken stagger) walking distance to my house. Looks like the boy apparently just wandered up here while drunk and high. Idiot. Aimlessly beating in peoples' doors is a good way to get himself shot around here.
kyrie eleison. I'm really glad I wasn't here when it happened. Nothing good could have come from that altercation.
The sheriff investigator just came by with some news.
The vandal's name is Brandon Anderson, and he was released into his mother's custody. Joy. Had I been home on Saturday morning, I might well have blown away a kid. I suggested to the cop to impress upon him how profoundly dangerous it is to be attempting to break in to someone's home...especially around here where just about everyone owns at least a rifle for hunting. With the stick to my fence down at my neighbor's house, the investigator said that's probably enough probable cause to arrest and charge the boy. So that's something. The investigator left with the lamp and the flower pot we had out there that I'm pretty sure young Mr Anderson ripped down. With some luck, young Mr Anderson's fingerprints will be on one or both.
His grandmother apparently lives off of Long Hollow rd...which is within a drunken stagger's (a long drunken stagger) walking distance to my house. Looks like the boy apparently just wandered up here while drunk and high. Idiot. Aimlessly beating in peoples' doors is a good way to get himself shot around here.
kyrie eleison. I'm really glad I wasn't here when it happened. Nothing good could have come from that altercation.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
I dunno about rain helping or hindering either side. I do know that I love having this team as a dog to one of the worst Louisville defenses in recent history.
'an_horse'
Let's win this one, Grind.
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
red - I don't think my boys have beaten the Lobos in nearly a decade.
In other words...it's more like a 5% chance.
In other words...it's more like a 5% chance.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
ew...that's worse than I thought...was probly a no play anyway, but that certainly seals it.
Macdamn, it'll turn around for you, bro.
GL today.
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
you know, I said I would just through Auburn out, but goddamn...this is just too much to ignore.
Auburn +425
it's at Bookmaker, and the best offer on MB is 400...and that's BEFORE commission...
These games are usually low scoring brutal affairs. 13-10...17-13...7-3......that sort of shit. Wouldn't shock me to see that again, and I think there's enough chance of a tossup in the 4th Q that I think i have to play this at 4 and a quarter...
Auburn +425
it's at Bookmaker, and the best offer on MB is 400...and that's BEFORE commission...
These games are usually low scoring brutal affairs. 13-10...17-13...7-3......that sort of shit. Wouldn't shock me to see that again, and I think there's enough chance of a tossup in the 4th Q that I think i have to play this at 4 and a quarter...
redbearde
Pretty much a regular
thanks guys...if this keeps up I'll have a better record in ML dogs than I do in spreads...
Plays
Temple +230 - W
Miami +215 - W
Utah +150 - W
Kentucky +240 - L
Texas Tech +150 - L
Tulane +210 - W
Stanford +425 - W
San Jose St +450 - L
UAB +411.6 - L
Connecticut +138.18 - W
Idaho +300 - L
Auburn +425 - L
6-6 for 50% +7.68 units this week, and I wish to holy FUCK he would have challenged that spot when the refs gave LSU the first down there at about the 30. No guarantee they don't win anyway, but damn....what a game to have over 4:1 with.
Plays
Temple +230 - W
Miami +215 - W
Utah +150 - W
Kentucky +240 - L
Texas Tech +150 - L
Tulane +210 - W
Stanford +425 - W
San Jose St +450 - L
UAB +411.6 - L
Connecticut +138.18 - W
Idaho +300 - L
Auburn +425 - L
6-6 for 50% +7.68 units this week, and I wish to holy FUCK he would have challenged that spot when the refs gave LSU the first down there at about the 30. No guarantee they don't win anyway, but damn....what a game to have over 4:1 with.
