CFB ML dogs week 8

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML Dogs: 20-37, 35%, +9.23 units

I actually hit 6-5 for 54.5% in ML dogs last week. That's a step in the right direction. I was pleased that the big plays I considered didn't cash, though, Rice, for one, perhaps should've. I declined on Wisky (goodforme), but I never really gave Kentucky any thought at all. And the idea of Cal losing seemed asinine (but then, apparently even his backup didn't know Nate Longshore wasn't going to play). On to another week...where I see a lot of smaller dogs I like the looks of.

I'm going to start with just a list this week as I'm very tired right now. I went the Raleigh for my sister's wedding celebration and had a nice visit with my family. Then we got home today to find someone had tried and failed to break into our house. ...it's been a long night.

at any rate, here's where I think I might find some value this week:

Rutgers, Utah, Temple (a third in a row?!?!), Memphis, Miss St, Tulane, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Miami(FL), Washington, Tulsa (and Smith over 300 yards rushing for UCF), Stanford, UAB, Kentucky, Illinois (pending injuries), Idaho, Arkie St, Marshall

and some spread plays I'll give serious consideration to...
Troy -damn near anything
FAU -less than a TD
UNLV -3
Cinci -less than DD
ECU -anything under 14
Ball St
Wake Forest -3. WTF is with this at Navy?

how does Rice get favored to anyone? Even Memphis?

That's 18 that I'm already giving thought to. Might play about half of them.

Plays
Temple +230
Miami +215
Utah +150 - W
Kentucky +240
Texas Tech +150
Tulane +210
Stanford +425
San Jose St +450
UAB +411.6
Connecticut +138.18 - W
Idaho +300
Auburn +425

UNLV -2.5
Notre Dame +18 (-111)
Texas A&M pk (+110)
Cincinnati -9 (-110)
 
sorry to hear that someone tried to break in...

hopefully you had fun at the wedding celebration!

good luck this week
 
If you get UT as a dog against Bama, I'd throw that one on your lean list. I can not see Bama being able to stop UT, even at home.
 
i almost had your locks picked when i saw the "BEWARE OF SMITH & WESSON" sign on the door. I won't try to break in again. Congrats on a great week redbearde. This is certainly the year of the moneyline dog !! Glad to see my Rebels getting some love in the forum this week even if it is because csu might have quit. keep up the good work and look forward to the rest of the thread
 
Tide High said:
If you get UT as a dog against Bama, I'd throw that one on your lean list. I can not see Bama being able to stop UT, even at home.
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depends on which UT team shows up. And last I looked, it was almost a pick. So I wouldn't get value out of it either way. I'll keep an eye out, though...
 
vegaskyle said:
i almost had your locks picked when i saw the "BEWARE OF SMITH & WESSON" sign on the door. I won't try to break in again. Congrats on a great week redbearde. This is certainly the year of the moneyline dog !! Glad to see my Rebels getting some love in the forum this week even if it is because csu might have quit. keep up the good work and look forward to the rest of the thread
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The dumbest drunk moron to ever attempt a criminal activity tried to get in my house - and he failed. I don't believe that's you. As for me and my guns...I'd put up a sign that says, "protected by Kalashnikov" but I doubt the criminals around here would know that's an AK...

here are some pics if you're interested.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/64886135@N00/
 
South Florida @ Rutgers - RU is a dog here. the Bulls piled it on UCF last week in perhaps the most dominant top 5 win of the season thus far. And if you don't know.....comprehend that USF kept Smith to 55 yards on 18 carries for 3.1ypc. Of course, Greco and Israel aren't Teel, but I think the only other defense Teel faced that'll be as hungry and strong as this one is Conci...and the bearcats won that one. If I play this at all, it'll be on the ML dog. I doubt I'll be able to find enough value at all, and I really think it should be a great fun game to watch........and not so much one to bet on. I like the line.

Utah @ TCU - the froggies just got by Stanford. ...and Stanford isn't that great - I don't care that they beat a USC. And given TCU's offensive performances thus far...Utah's defense could easily keep them in this game with more than a fair shot at the win. at 150 to 160...that might be a good play. LOVE to get 175. 2:1, of course, is a pipe dream.
 
Northwestern @ Eastern Michigan - Not sure what to make of this one. Looks a lot like last week's game between minny and NW, and it's the sort of thing NW might letdown for......3:1 is required, I think and I dunno if I'll get that....

Louisville @ UConn - fuckin tight ass line. I think it's right. No play for me here. damnit.
 
looks like someone has a broken toe from kicking the door 100 times. ridiculous. i'm glad you weren't there to kill those dumb kids red!!
 
The cop said he'd seen a lot of kicked in doors (done a few himself), and he thought it looked more like a make-shift battering ram of some sort. I don't have any idea who it was, but I don't think it was 'just kids'...it was someone angry with me for some reason...it's the only thing that makes any sense.

Buffalo @ Syracuse - I could give it some thought, but I'd really like to see 2:1 here. I mean, buffalo's defense might be superior to Louisville's, but their offense isn't...
 
redbearde said:
The cop said he'd seen a lot of kicked in doors (done a few himself), and he thought it looked more like a make-shift battering ram of some sort. I don't have any idea who it was, but I don't think it was 'just kids'...it was someone angry with me for some reason...it's the only thing that makes any sense.

Buffalo @ Syracuse - I could give it some thought, but I'd really like to see 2:1 here. I mean, buffalo's defense might be superior to Louisville's, but their offense isn't...
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Killa:pillow:
 
Already on UNLV myself...although I got 3 before it went down.

I played NW a bit ago..small...but on the truf at Ford Field I think their offense will be just a bit too much. EMU offense doesn't scare me like a few of the teams NW has really struggled with this season.

If you like Troy SU..line went from 21 to 17.5...

I also have played Uconn and Rutgers today...both lines moved from PK to +3ish....I'll take that FG at home

gl
 
Miami, OH @ Temple - right now it's at +6. 2:1 isn't an unreasonable expectation at all. In fact, I just checked 5dimes, and Temple is at 235. The redhawks have a 3 game winstreak capped off by a 47-14 drubbing over Bowling Green.

Miami Oh is 89th in the nation in total defense, 88th in rushing defense, and 85th in passing defense.

Temple is 54th in total defense, 92nd in rushing defense, and somehow 19th in passing defense.

Miami is 68th in total offense, 61st in rushing offense, and 60th in passing offense.

Temple is 99th in total offense, 106th in rushing offense , and 57th in passing offense.

AND

Temple has tasted victory. They should have won against UCONN (well, they did and got hosed by the refs), and they won their last 2. Miami was lucky to defeat the defenseless Ball St team in week 1, and everyone (that's a hard look at minny) should blow out bowling green. Even if Miami does win, it should be a close game, and I think Temple will certainly have a fair chance at the win. I hesitate to take the first number I see, but 235 sounds more than fair, and my other books have +6 instead of +6.5...

Temple +235

edit. damnit. I thought I had put this one in already. I didn't.

So I have Temple +230
 
just from the pictures, that's what I thought... kids or someone that doesn't like you, and knows you weren't home. good luck with that, and with your picks this week.
 
thanks BAR. that's just too much chalk in the SBC for Troy...though I do think they'll win by 3 TDs...at least. Maybe Dr Bob will bump it low enough for me.

Killa's not stupid. This would-be burglar is stupid. and besides...Killa knows how I am...

:Gun:
 
Mississippi St @ West Virginia - The key to stopping WCU is to have disciplined speed on defense to stop their rungame. Auburn running for 216 yards for 4.7 ypc is not a good sign. Tulane couldn't run on em, but hey..it's tulane. They did hold South Carolina to 123 yards on 3.5 ypc, but the cocks shredded em through the air. They held UAB to 72 yards on 3.1ypc...and then TN blew through em for 5ypc and over 200 yards on the ground alone...not to mention 7.2ypa through the air.

I'm talking myself out of this one, but damn it's high.....extremely high.
 
Penn St @ Indiana - Penn St's defense is just too tough, I think.

Central Michigan @ Clemson - not a chance in hell.

Northern Illinois @ Wisconsin - :36_11_6:

Arkansas @ Mississippi - not sure either team will score less than 30. Arkansas has a lousy D for the SEC...and they have the best RB in america...though McFadden might as well have stayed home and watched the Auburn game on TV... If anything, I'd guess he'd be motivated to rush for 300 this week.

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina - might we see a repeat of the vandy/auburn game?

Wake Forest @ Navy - no value. Wake has the number 21 offense in the nation, and they don't have Wannstadt at HC, so it's not like this is automatic ML play...eh. I'll say no play for now and see if the number does anything. I do think Navy can win this game in a similar fashion as the Pitt and Duke wins....or the Ball St loss.

Army @ Georgia Tech - not without Reggie Ball at QB.

Wyoming @ Air Force - again no value...maybe it's worthwhile at 160 or 170.

Ball St @ West. Michigan - much more likely to have a BSU spread ticket, and I'm not very likely to have that..
 
Just wanted to say thanks for helping me sort through the ML dogs this past weekend with my 5dimes free plays. Reading through your thread helped me out a lot so I have you to thank for that Temple +360 play on Saturday. Thanks again and best of luck this weekend!
 
Red - What do you think about NCST/ECU this weekend? Looks like some early support for ECU as that line now up to 5. Pirates would love to beat up on NCST for a little in-state bragging rights don't you think?
 
CB, nice hit with Temple, bro! You made the bet. :shake:

Timh, I think ECU will win by DD. I have no faith in NCSU...except to commit turnovers and stupid penalties. I probably won't bother playing it tough...
 
counselor said:
SJSU with a potential look-ahead for Fresno?
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They just had their best chance for a real meaningful win last week. SJSU had a 14 point lead on a Hawaii team on the mainland in short week, and they couldn't pull out the win. ....at least they covered... but no. I won't be considering that one at all.

It may win, as some do every week that I don't think will, but I don't think they can put enough value in there for me to even consider it.

Kansas @ Colorado - not sure what to make of this one, either. I'd want at least 2:1 to consider it, though. Kansas might be very very good this year. It's tough to know because they've played nothing but crap teams up until the big rivalry with K State. I can understand this line given what KSU did to Colorado last week, but I don't think one week should over-indicate the nature of a team....on either side there.

Memphis @ Rice - HAHAHAHAHAHahaaaaa...eat it memphis. EAT IT AND CHOKE. You are able to make RICE lay chalk. HAHAHHAAHAHHAHH

Tulane @ SMU - SMU has Willis. Tulane has an opposing QB in Willis. Tulane also has played a pretty good half of football occasionally this year. SMU.........not so much. I'm not really trying to say the line is wrong (how do you make that sort of bold statement?), but both of these teams are the ass end of the short bus this year, and at 2:1, I'll play Tulane all day long...it's there right now, but I somehow doubt that'll be high on anyone's priority list for games, so I'm going to wait and see where the lines go on this one...but Tulane is a very likely play this week.

Nevada @ Utah St - what's this line if Nevada doesn't play so well at Boise last week? Yeah...not so much. I think there's value here. not sure I'll play it...I do think Reno should win...just...well, it's a perfect letdown spot after a tough loss in 14th OT.

Tennessee @ Bama - it's essentially a pick right now. No value.

Texas A&M @ Nebraska - I may break my rule again for this one. Nebraska plays no defense. They won't stop the Aggie run all day. +110 right now. May just call it a spread play.

Oklahoma @ Iowa St - um. no.

Texas Tech @ Missouri - 80pts or more in this one. Gun to my head, take the points with TT. Should be a fun game to watch for the offense-lovers out there.

Southern Cal @ Notre Dame - not unless they start Sharpley.

Weis is considering it:

http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/news;...m.1LYF?slug=ap-notredameqbs&prov=ap&type=lgns

Weis considers starting Sharpley over Clausen against USC
By TOM COYNE, AP Sports Writer
October 14, 2007

SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) -- Notre Dame might use its third starting quarterback of the season when the Fighting Irish face No. 13 USC on Saturday.

Coach Charlie Weis said Sunday he had not decided whether to stay with freshman Jimmy Clausen, who has started the past five games, or switch to junior Evan Sharpley, who has rallied the Irish (1-6) in the second halves to pull Notre Dame close against Purdue and Boston College.

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Weis will announce his decision Tuesday.

The Irish opened the season with Demetrius Jones starting in a 33-3 loss to Georgia Tech. He was replaced by Sharpley, who was replaced by Clausen as all three were ineffective. Jones left the team a week after Clausen was named the starter for the second game against Penn State.

Sharpley has maintained a good attitude, saying he trusts the coaches to make the right decision.

"It's not up to me. It's up to other people," Sharpley said after the game Saturday. "Hopefully I keep improving and we keep improving and getting better."

Sharpley has been improving and closing the gap on Clausen, Weis said.

"Every week it's closer," he said.

Weis has repeatedly said Clausen has been the starter because he's been more accurate throwing. The statistics back him up. Clausen is 81-of-141 passing for a 57.4 completion rate, while Sharpley is 43-of-80 with a 53.8 completion rate.

Weis indicated the numbers aren't as close in practice, so Sharpley needs to look better in practice.

"If he wants to move past Jimmy, which I know he does, it's got to be an every day thing, it can't just be a game day thing," he said.

The more telling stat, though, might be that Sharpley has thrown slightly more than half as many passes as Clausen but has three TD passes to Clausen's one. Sharpley has thrown two interceptions to Clausen's five and has a 111.42 pass efficiency rating to Clausen's 89.51.

Immediately after Clausen was yanked for throwing his second interception against BC -- leading to a touchdown that gave the Eagles a 20-0 lead -- Sharpley led the Irish on a seven-play, 79-yard scoring drive. He was 4-of-7 passing during the drive connecting on passes of 28, 2, 15 and 19 yards.

That 64 yards was 4 yards more than Clausen passed for in the entire first half.

Notre Dame has seven offensive touchdowns this season. Clausen has led them on TD drives of 9, 80 and 2 yards. Sharpley has led them on drives of 37, 81, 79 and 79 yards.

Part of the reason Clausen has struggled more in games may be the speed, Weis said.

"Things happen a lot faster on game day than they do in practice. They happen a lot faster," Weis said. "I think in practice, he's got everything under control. On game day, obviously, the games happen faster."

Clausen could benefit by watching from the sideline, Weis said.

"Because you can see things happening before they happen, because you don't have the pressure of being underneath the center and calling the snap count and signaling the motion and all those other things. You can actually see it happening as it's happening when you're on the sidelines," he said.

Tight end John Carlson said the players believe in both quarterbacks.

"They've both proven that they have the ability to get the job done," he said.
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The announcement is tuesday, and I don't think it'll affect the line, but if Sharpley starts, I'll give this one a shot. SC has been remarkably beatable recently, and I think it'd be funny for ND to have a shitty season and yet beat Pete Carroll.......and I'll take +1000 or so...
 
Miami FL @ Florida St - +215. Hell yeah. This'll be a tight and well-played defensive game. I'll make the prediction now. WIDE RIGHT.

Oregon @ Washington - I can't figure the huskies. someone tell me about this one...

Michigan St @ Ohio St - great run defense vs great run offense. I hope to watch this one, but I won't be on MSU ML...

UVA @ Maryland - UVA has looked like shit all year and managed to get wins even against tough teams like MTSU...and sucking ass at Wyoming. They keep winning and not covering, but this is a different animal as UVA is the dog. Timh, what do you think about this one? 2:1 smells fairly good to me, here...
 
Bowling Green @ Kent St - BGSU might shock me and get a win here, but the only thing that would compel me to play it is the, "it's the MAC syndrome", and it ain't a toledo game with the rockets as a fave, so there aren't guaranteed shenanigans....they still might happen. but not with my money.

Tulsa @ UCF - wish I could get more value in this one. I'm pretty sure it'll be another high scoring game, at least. I might like the total when I see it...

NCSU @ ECU - 180 is shit for value with this wolfpack team.

Stanford @ Arizona - I love to fade Tuitama. I love it. It's like...knowing that anytime he's throwing downfield you hope he's trying to NOT throw it to an opponent.......because he will. Don't let his completion percentage fool you. He does dumpoffs all game long. When he goes downfield, it's a pick fest. Hell yeah I'll give Stanford a go this week. And the line appears to be moving up. I could get 370 right now at BM, but I'm going to get greedy and see if I can get 4:1 somewheres...

SJSU @ Fresno St - ugh.

Houston @ UAB - Houston is Houston's own worst enemy. Even UAB can win this one...even though Rice couldn't....I see 415 and 400. at +13 I would think I can find higher somewheres.......I'm going to get greedy and see if I can find 4.5:1 on this one.

Florida @ Kentucky - I'm going to look at what the SEC guys around here think of this game before making any decisions.

Boise St @ Louisiana Tech - oh, I think not.

Iowa @ Purdue - I don't care that they beat illinois. Iowa sucks, and I'm not playing them to win. If they can keep the scores low, then the spread might be something folks consider.

Ohio @ Toledo - I don't care.

Texas @ Baylor - baylor doesn't care.

Kansas St @ Oklahoma St - I don't know what to make of this one. No value in any event...but I'm not keen on fading the 40 year old MAN yet...

Cinci @ Pitt - I wouldn't play pitt here if you gave me +40,000. It's a waste of good crack rock. I will very likely have a cinci spread ticket.
 
Michigan @ Illinois - is Mike Hart okay? That's the question. Still, no value for a ML dog. probly a no-play for me all around.

Idaho @ New Mexico St - if Chase is back, then I might play this on the idea that his ribs might get hurt again. If he's not back, then I may well give this a shot anyway...Idaho doesn't have many legitimate chances at a road win.......they just might this time. Holbrook has a rib injury from the Arkie Pine-Bluff game that was aggravated at Boise St. No news yet, of course, on whether he plays or not, but at +313, it might well be worthwhile...

damn....headaches have come quickly over the last couple days.
 
Red thanks for your work, ML Dogs are keeping me alive this season...I never play even close to as many as you do, but its nice being pointed in the right direction...

I got that Temple one, too, last week. That line was unreal.

Of all the stuff on here, I like the looks of Temple again, as well as Colorado. I'm just not convinced that Kansas should be laying 1.7:1 on the road against a decent BCS team...
 
Jeez red, that sucks about the damage to your house. Obviously they were lucky you weren't home . . .

Love the Temple play but Bookmaker only has +210 so I'm going to hold out for a better number for now. I was looking at Miami too, but I'm not sure I can do it. These teams hate each other more than life itself so anything can happen, but FSU has been solid at home, whereas UM has just stunk it up that last couple weeks. I may join you on it though after all because I do like to fade FSU.

So far I've got Utah, Colorado, Washington, KY and LTech. Still looking at Buffalo, Ole Piss, Vandy, Tulane, Texas Tech, BG, KSU, Pitt, Illy, Idaho, Auburn and SDSU as my other possibilities for MLs. Although I probably won't have as many plays as the last couple weeks, overall don't like the card as much.
 
I'd forget MS state. keep talking yourself out of them. they have speed, but its far from disciplined and they don't have much depth.

I noticed you haven't brought up AU @ LSU... is this one not even a consideration? I'm pondering a small play on AU ML @ 4:1. I'll be back to discuss when I have enough time to make it worthwhile.
 
Seabass said:
Red thanks for your work, ML Dogs are keeping me alive this season...I never play even close to as many as you do, but its nice being pointed in the right direction...

I got that Temple one, too, last week. That line was unreal.

Of all the stuff on here, I like the looks of Temple again, as well as Colorado. I'm just not convinced that Kansas should be laying 1.7:1 on the road against a decent BCS team...
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Glad you got the temple win, bro. I dunno about Kansas or Colorado either. Tough to know what to do with Kansas because aside from a tough win against K State...they've really not done much.

you tell me...
 
Macdamn, I'm not sure where I'll end up this week...probably with less plays than the last couple weeks...like you I don't like the card as much. But I do still like it.

That's a ballsy play on Louie Tech, bro...
 
Auburn @ LSU - initially I thought I should just ignore this one. But upon reflection, LSU has played a few tough games in a row now, and Auburn has looked better and better.......especially recently. 4:1 might be well worth a try... Tide High, I'll be looking forward to any thoughts you might have on it. For instance, do you think Auburn will be able to run occasionally on this LSU front 4?

New Mexico @ San Diego St - Aztec4Life....? think your boys have a shot here? Say, 30%....?

Colorado St @ UNLV - runnin rebels spread ticket. CSU needs to show me they haven't given up on the season before I'll even consider them...

North Texas @ Troy - more likely to take a Troy spread ticket than anything else here. Don't be thinking, "it's the sun-belt" on this one. Troy is a scary good team for the sunbelt...

Arky St @ MTSU - I don't understand this line. Indians will probly win straight up. Gotta look into it here, but may well be a dog spread play for me.

Florida Atlantic @ Louisiana-Lafayette - this could happen, I guess. I but I would want at least 3:1, ad I won't be holding my breath. FAU, Troy, and ARkie St are pretty damned good teams this year...

Florida Int @ UL-Monroe - ULM on their worst day will beat this flint team.

Southern Miss @ Mashall - does Smiss have a QB yet...? might hafta play marshall...
 
Utah +150 it's at the limit of what I will play, and before I lose that I want to hit it...so there it is.

Under is probably a good play on this game, too.
 
I have an offer up for UCONN. I think the huskies will likely plow through Louisville's defense all night long. If you like Louisville, go take my ML cash at MB.

best i see right now for Miss St is 15:1. I want more. I've pretty much talked myself out of it - Tide High's probly right.

Brewer, I kinda like Rutgers, too, but I don't like 125ish...and that's the best number I can find.

:hang:
 
Rutgers - 125 at MB, so actually plays as 122.5

Utah - played at 150

Temple - played at 230

Memphis - 110 to 105. Shit number. Still...might have to play it as a pk spread. Rice as a fave is a joke.

Miss St - 1300, 1500, 1250, all over the place. likely a no play, anyway.

Tulane - 200 or 220. Maybe I should go ahead and play this one...haven't yet.

Texas A&M - 115, 110...no value, should be funny to watch this defense try to stop Javorski lane. Might play the spread...in which case I have plenty of time to just wait.

Texas Tech - 140, 150, 145......150 is almost enticing. 180 would be hard to resist, and 2:1 would make me have to play it, but I'm laying off for now. I don't want to take every 1.5:1 out there this week, and I think there will be many.

Miami(FL) - played at 215. 220 at the greek right now. heh. oh well.

Washington - 350, 395, 380. Hell if I know. Someone tell me if 4:1 is good to fade the Ducks at Washington this week.

Tulsa - 130, 125, 120. Not enough value with Tulsa. Should be a tight exciting game with a lot of scoring. Either it goes up, or I don't play it.

Stanford - 380, 395, 360, 350. I'll definitely play it at these numbers, but can I get more...? BM had 370 before, and now they have another quarter...I'm gettin greedy here.

UAB - 400, 370, 400...and it's facing the turnover-happy Cougers. Again...more...MORE....COME ON. GIVE ME MORE.

Kentucky - 230, 210, 225, and I'm not sure I want to mess with this at all...

Illinois - 115, 120, 130, so Lloyd...got a guess about Hart?


Lloyd on Hart: wait and see

Idaho - 325, 300, 315, 310. at least there's not much variance...I still want to know about Chase Holbrook before I touch it...

Arkie St - 115, 110, 115, still no play. I really think the wrong team is favored. And I'll probably play a spread ticket with ASU

Marshall - 150, 160, 155, 145. I doubt I bother with this one.
 
BIG TRUCKER said:
Sharpley Is Starting For Notre Dame On Saturday!!!!
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indeed he is. Unfortunately, all I am seeing is a piddly 650 or 700. I'm kinda irritated by that.

here's an article if anyone's interested:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21324528/

Notre Dame to start Sharpley at QB vs. USC
Weis says junior ‘gives us the best chance of winning’

Associated Press Sports
Updated: 1:25 p.m. ET Oct. 16, 2007

SOUTH BEND, Ind. - Evan Sharpley will start at quarterback for Notre Dame against No. 13 Southern California, making the junior the third starting signal-caller for the Fighting Irish this season.

Sharpley, the backup to Brady Quinn last season and the No. 2 quarterback when Demetrius Jones and Jimmy Clausen started the first seven games this season, will make his first career start Saturday at home.

"I think Evan this week gives us the best chance of winning,'' coach Charlie Weis said during his weekly news conference Tuesday.
Story continues below ↓advertisement

Sharpley has led the Fighting Irish (1-6) to four of its seven offensive touchdowns, despite playing significantly less time than Clausen, a freshman who had started the past six games. Weis said part of the reason for the change is Clausen's health.

"The separation between the two isn't enough for the banged up guy to start ahead of the fresh guy,'' Weis said.

Jones started the season-opener, a 33-3 loss to Georgia Tech, and left the team a week after Clausen became the starter for the second game against Penn State.

Weis had said Clausen had been the starter because he's been more accurate, completing 81-of-141 for a 57.4 completion rate, compared with Sharpley's 43-of-80 passing for a 53.8 completion rate. But Clausen had his worst outing last week, going 7-of-20 for 60 yards against Boston College with two interceptions.

Sharpley replaced Clausen early in the second half against Boston College and was 11-for-29 for 135 yards and a touchdown. Another TD pass was called back because of a holding penalty. Sharpley also rallied the Irish in the second half of a loss to Purdue.

Sharpley, who has passed for three touchdowns and two interceptions in six games, has a 111.42 pass efficiency rating compared with Clausen's 89.51. Clausen has one touchdown pass and five interceptions.

Three of the four touchdown drives Sharpley has led the Irish on have been 79 yards or longer. The other was 37 yards long. Clausen has led the Irish on TD drives of 9, 80 and 2 yards.

Weis also announced that James Aldridge, who is leading the Irish with 249 yards rushing on 67 carries, is doubtful for the game with a high ankle sprain.
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and Aldridge being doubtful is NOT good news for any Irish backers out there.
 
I've really been going back and forth on AU today, after initially thinking it was worth a play. They will be able to run on LSU. Brandon Cox is my worry. He has looked awful. Its going to take great decisions(NO mistakes) and key plays in the clutch to pull this one off. I'm not sure he's the guy that can do it. No time for a real write up, but ill give a detailed post either tonight or tomorrow.
 
redbearde said:
UVA @ Maryland - UVA has looked like shit all year and managed to get wins even against tough teams like MTSU...and sucking ass at Wyoming. They keep winning and not covering, but this is a different animal as UVA is the dog. Timh, what do you think about this one? 2:1 smells fairly good to me, here...
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Red - MD has really been hit hard by injuries, especially to the OL. Terps lost their best lineman vs. GT when G Andrew Crummey went down with a broken fibula. He really had a nice season going and it's a very difficult loss for the Terps to absorb. There may be a chance he could come back if MD makes a bowl. I've really been happy with the effort MD has shown this year, especially after giving away the WF game. They have continued to fight very hard. Erin Henderson missed the GT game with a knee injury but hopefully the extra week with the bye will give him time to get ready for Virginia. I am hopeful that he will play, as he has been outstanding on defense this year for the Terps. Virginia hasn't played that tough of a schedule so far with GT being arguably the best team they have played. Not trying to discredit VA at all, just saying that I think MD is a little more battle tested against quality opponents at this point of the season. VA defense has done a nice job stopping the run (3.1 ypc allowed) and a good job getting pressure (21 sacks) and I have a lot of respect for their front seven on D. However, I think their secondary may be where MD can attack them a little bit through the air and with the speed of MD's WR's. Turner gives MD a much better chance throwing the ball downfield than Steffy did, but does lack the mobility so that will be a concern. Ralph has spent a lot of the bye week looking at some of the younger kids trying to find a few healthy bodies that will be available to play with depth being such a concern right now. MD running game has really been solid with Lattimore and Ball a really nice one/two punch. Cedric Peerman missed UVA's game vs. UConn with an ankle injury and his health is a big concern for UVA. Sewell really is tough to defend because of his mobility, and just when you think you have him contained he will hurt you with a big scramble. I think MD has a big game coaching advtg. with Ralph vs. Groh. Groh absolutely blew last yrs. game at Charlottesville with some really poor decisions and bad 2h play calling after UVA had a big lead. I like MD to win this game at home, but it could likely be a very close one. I'd check the injuries before the game because they really are a big factor in this one. If Turner happens to go down for MD we would be totally fucked, as Steffy will miss a couple more weeks with the concussion syndromes after being drilled in the Rutgers game.
 
Florida @ Kentucky - first off, Florida ain't as good as we all want to think they are. Yes, they have a good run defense, but Kentucky has a remarkable run offense - they were able to rush 41 times for 125 yards for 3ypc and 2 TDs...against LSU. That ain't great, but it's against LSU, and I think LSU's rushing defense is superior to Florida's. Now, LSU did rush for 5.2ypc at Kentucky, and that sucks. Kentucky's rushing defense.....not terribly stout. 60th in overall yards, and 100th against the rush...and kentucky is 26th against the pass. But, who knows...maybe Florida won't ever put the ball in the air?

methinks this'll turn into a shootout not unlike UK vs LSU. Kentucky even threw 3 picks last week, and they still managed to come out with the win.

what the fuck. I think 240 is worth it even though it's cheap ass shit at 7pts...

Kentucky +240
 
Texas Tech @ Missouri - the red raiders are tops in offense. Missouri can score too...no doubt.

So where are their defenses? Well, Missouri ranks at a whopping 101st in the NCAA vs the pass. Texas Tech ranks at 15th against the pass and 71st against the rush, but consider what TT did to Texas A&M and their rushing game...43 attempts, 233 yards, 5.2ypc, and 1 TD....ONE. For a final score of 35-7.

Temple may get his yards on the ground (if he plays), but TT will likely stop Missouri several times while Mizzou probably won't stop Texas Tech.

we shall see...I think Texas Tech is better, and I'll roll with the heisman candidate in Harrell...

Texas Tech +150
 
Tim, thanks for your time, man. I too think that Peerman's health is of huge consequence for this one. Without him, maybe Maryland drops 7 or 8 every down...if he's good to go, I might just have to play UVA.
 
I jumped all the way off of Auburn. 1/13 on 3rd downs last week pretty much says it all.

Tide High said:
Brandon Cox's stats vs Arkansas...
<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="colhead" align="right"><td align="left">
</td><td>C/ATT</td><td>YDS</td><td>AVG</td><td>TD</td><td>INT</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">B. Cox</td><td>13/23</td><td>101</td><td>4.4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td></tr></tbody></table>

3rd down conversion rate vs Arkansas...
1/13!!!!!!!!! this will not beat anyone but Ark against a good run D

Time of possession vs Arkansas...
AU - 35, ARK - 25

It seems like auburns success on offense (running game) excelled because of their defensive soundness. The rush yardage racked up high #s because the Arkansas D got worn out from being on the field so long. Auburn ran it 53 times 93.6 per carry)! Auburn will not convert 3rd and longs vs LSU as they couldn't vs ARK. This will be their demise - inconsistent QB play, and lackluster WRs.
Click to expand...

Auburns plan last week was to load up against the run, because Dick and Arkansas pass game is nonexistant. Obviously, they'll have a different plan this week. While I think they will have some success running the ball. The inability to keep drives going by Brandox Cox and his WR core may not even allow them to cover 10.
 
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