CFB ML Dogs week 7

[redbearde]

ML Dogs: 14-32, 30.43%, +1.93 units

Last week sucked ass. 5-10. But what really hurt me was the spread plays I lost. What made me mad was the official shenanigans in the Oklahoma St/A&M game. Course, I should have lost the Akron game by all rights...what an incredible finish by two TERRIBLE teams! But, I had a lot of chances to win close games (Duke, UNLV, TCU, Wisconsin), and some of those teams played absolutely horrendous football. I also dodged some plays...notably not playing the ball st chalk.............but goddamnit, I was thinking of playing Notre Dame all week, and I coulda had +1500....I just didn't pull the trigger because I thought the EMU would start. Who knew M. Bethel-Thompson would make Clausen look like his big brother...? Stanford wasn't even on my radar screen. If another game like that appears this week, I likely won't play it again. That was a collection of flukes on a bizarre galactic scale. It -is- something to remember for next year, though.

on to another week. I may play a lot of MLs again. ...as bad as the day felt, the numbers aren't so bad. Course, it WOULD be bad if Akron didn't win...

anyway, here's a start.

Navy @ Pitt - if this line goes up some, then I might play it, but I want 2:1, and I doubt I'll get it before gameday. Wanny has the incredible ability to lose to anyone...and he faces a tough cincinnati team coming up in week 8. Still, I don't want this piddly shit with 150...1.5 might be worth it, but I absolutely will not play one for less than 150, and I don't want this one for less than 2.

Florida St @ Wake Forest - as bad as NCSU is this year, and as much as one would think this statement is stupid..........I really think this is an emotional letdown spot for the noles. NCSU has had an annoying knack of beating FSU for a few years now, and as undisciplined and full of jackassery as the pack is, the deacs are the opposite. It's a great team to have as a dog at home, and I expect 2:1 with ease here. Another quarter or more would be great, but with sufficient value, I'll be all over WF.

Hawaii @ San Jose St - I gotta hear what HG has to say about this one. Hawaii, on a day shorter...should be a lot more troublesome for them. Colt might even be hard up again. Not that that should matter much...the question here is all about how much SJSU scores. Cus at their worst, Hawaii still managed 45 points.

Plays
Temple +380
Navy +165ish - W
Wake Forest +215 - W
Purdue +200
Colorado +205
Mid TN St +160
Army +450
Air Force +150
Eastern Michigan +170
Oklahoma St +160
SMU +295

Illinois -3
South Carolina -6 (-120)
Boston College -13.5 (-106)

prospective plays
Minnesota
Louisville
Mississippi St
San Diego St
Rice
Wisconsin
Oklahoma St
Indiana
SMU
Washington
North Texas


LSU chalk
South Carolina chalk
baffulo chalk

 

[Joe Public]

Wanny has the incredible ability to lose to anyone

Man is that ever the truth.

 

[macdamn]

Yeah I hear you red. Feel the same way. I actually came out about 4.6 units up on Saturday but still felt I get effed over on Okie St, Tulsa and Tulane, all blowing 4th quarter leads like that. Those game were the difference between a 4 unit day and a 10 unit day.

Totally with you on Wake Forest. I'll be all over that for sure. I think that line should be a pickem.

My other for sure ML dogs will be Louisville and North Texas. Got to sort out the rest. I'm really considering Arizona too. I think a loss like that for USC takes 2 weeks to recover from, although if there's any coach that can get his team out of a mental funk it is probably Pete Carroll.

Looking forward to your thoughts on the rest of the games.

 

[frankiegotti]

ML Dogs: 14-32, 30.43%, +1.93 units

Navy @ Pitt - if this line goes up some, then I might play it, but I want 2:1, and I doubt I'll get it before gameday. Wanny has the incredible ability to lose to anyone...and he faces a tough cincinnati team coming up in week 8. Still, I don't want this piddly shit with 150...1.5 might be worth it, but I absolutely will not play one for less than 150, and I don't want this one for less than 2.

That Navy moneyline is a solid play i actually pegged this one as a solid play for me this week. PItt lost it's ILB corps this past year and others can't seem to come anywhere close to the production that was lost. The only real chance pitt has is to run their stud RB McCoy. Pitt's QB couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat. Their best QB is Bill Stull and he is out with an injury, Kevan Smith has decent arm strength and could throw 3 td's passes in a game with 2 of them going to the defense, and Pat Bostick true freshman is questionable because he gets homesick so often he has to go home midweek sometimes which makes his learning curve that much tougher, and neither of the 3 QB's are rocket scientists by any stretch. The head coach Dave Wannestadt is funny in himself, he reminds me on that coach from the waterboy, that just looks lost all the time and is fascinated how he gets beat week in and week out.

The defense is a peice of work, Wanestadt has to go out of his way to recruit these guys. It's like a project you have in school with a group, when you get into the group, you and all yoru group members are asking each other what the hell is going on. That is what happens with Pitt's defense, no one knows their assignments, and their OLB leader has been in and out with a lingering injury. So needless to say i like navy in this spot. The only reason i know about Pitt football because that's all they talk about in the local news and Kevan Smith went to my old high school and he is friends with my brother so i know how smart he really is.

 

[redbearde]

Purdue @ Michigan - Purdue doesn't have the speed of, say, an app st, but they still run the spread...and I expect Big Blue to have much trouble here again. Mike Hart will get his yards, of course, but the spread offense vs UM's D strikes me as no less effective than Hart running through the Purdue defense. Again, I want 2:1 or thereabouts, but I don't think that's out of line. I'm not scared of Purdue's performance at tOSU, btw...

"Each week, we'll usually find something weak in the opponent's defense and just keep attacking and attacking," he said. "They're a really strong defense across the board. There's no weakness there."

That's tOSU...it's not the case at Michigan.

Rutgers @ Syracuse - pfft.

Eastern Michigan @ Ohio - ohio just lost to buffalo in a sound beating. Anyone think they're up for laying ANYTHING to ANYONE...? even EMU...? I don't. I'll play EMU. I'd like 2:1...more is better.

Minny @ Northwestern - someone tell me how high this total should be. Nope. Not high enough. I honestly think the last possession decides this game. I want 3:1, but I may not get it. 2.6 is sufficient, I think... Will wait on Bjorks,too. he knows the program...

Kent St @ Ohio St - hell no.

South Carolina @ North Carolina - I like SC to win this one. A lot. I'll probably be on the spread.

Georgia Tech @ Miami, FL - no value. No point, either. GT can only get hyped up so many times over weepy bitches in the backfield...

VPI @ Duke - 13 is an awful lot. If duke can keep from making too many mistakes..................... eh, never mind.

Louisville @ Cincinnati - I'm no sure what I expected here, but UL +10.5 was not it. I almost think it requires at least a points play. ...I may stay away due to lack of comprehension. (like UGA @ Tenn last week)

UGA @ Vanderbilt - not sure I want to fade Georgia just after a loss...especially after vandy got their asses handed to them because they don't believe in tackling running backs...

Toledo @ Buffalo - anyone putting money on Toledo needs to have his head examined. I'm amazed they squeaked by Liberty. I probably won't play it because I hate laying points in the MAC, but damn....-3 is very attractive.

Baylor @ Kansas - I'd rather fight a marmot with a broken slingshot.

New Mexico @ Wyoming - UNM is capable of winning this game. I don't think there will be sufficient value to fork with it. 175 might entice me. 2:1 would. Probly won't get there.

Tennessee @ Mississippi St - I'm not going to over-react to last week's UGA drubbing. Mississippi St can play some defense, and they even beat Auburn on the road. So far this year, UT has lost both road games (Cal & Fla) and won each home game. If I can get over 2.5:1, I'll play MSU. I think it's likely I will get that. I'm going to wait for 3:1 or more....I kinda think tenny love might show up at the matchbook...

Bowling Green @ Miami, OH - no value and shit teams. at 2:1, it's something to consider. Not so much at -3.

SDSU @ Utah - I can't figure utah. at all. So I'm going to look into this one with some depth. I totally blew off SDSU vs Colorado st, and I was wrong to do so. At least I didn't lay the chalk like I considered...

Army @ Central Michigan - I can back army against the chips. CMU has been extremely disappointing this year, but if they can keep the scoring low, then that fucker Trimble could win the game on special teams all by himself...at +11, there should be well over 3:1 here, and I like that...

Rice @ Houston - both defenses are absolutely atrocious. Houston's offense might be better, but this is going to be a battle of ineptitude, I think. There will be many yards, and I think there will be many turnovers. at 19.5, I think that's going to be an awful juicy ML...and I just don't think I can pass it up. This is going to take some luck to win, but it looks like it'll be worth a shot.

Washington St @ Oregon - wazzou can't stop the run. ...except against ASU. Even against Idaho they gave up 3.2ypc...and AZ got 4.9ypc. USC got 5.9ypc....oh, and they made Tuitama look like Tom Brady. 346 yards and 5TDs. Oregon is going to shred them...especially after that last home loss. This one's gonna get ugly.

Wisconsin @ Penn St - I'll be on wisky again, I guess. Morelli had perhaps the best game of his career against Iowa. Maybe he'll make Wisky look good...in any case, I think the value is worth it. I'll take 2.5:1 for a unit, alex.

Oklahoma St @ Nebraska - maybe the books haven't figured it out yet, but Nebraska's defense sucks absolute donkey ass. I think the Cowboys should have had the win at A&M, and I think they should win here. I'll take as much as I can get, but I want at least +150...

Texas @ Iowa St - OH! Texas can get a win! isn't that nice for them?

Illinois @ Iowa - cheap chalk. Juice is apparently fine. See here:
http://www.suntimes.com/sports/colleges/592199,CST-SPT-illnt07.article
Iowa's going to have to actually play some football this week, or they'll get an absolute shellacking this week.

Boston College @ Notre Dame - ND capitalized on horrendous offensive play out of the Bruins back-up QB. That won't happen this week. 1-6, here they come!

West Michigan @ Northern Illinois - shit teams, little value. I don't know if I want to bother with NIU...

TCU @ Stanford - letdown spot for Tree vs a pretty good defense. No play for me.

Oregon St @ Cal - I actually think this is a pretty good line, and I think Cal wins in any event...

Fresno St @ Idaho - Idaho might get a win vs Louie Tech or Utah St. ...unlikely to get one this week. to say the least.

Air Force @ Colorado St - someone tell me why the falcons are dogs to a team with no wins. even against SDSU....?

Temple @ Akron - I may lose it, but I'll be on temple again. this line is stupid high. Akron is terrible. Seriously. look at some of their play by plays and box scores. I watched them absolutely piss away soooo many plays. They made UCONN look incredible. And let me tell you...Temple has a stud at QB in Adam DiMichele. He makes good decisions for their spread offense, and while i know that 2 wins in a row is somewhat unprecedented recently for them, this is the sort of situation where it could very well happen. With Akron laying 10...fuck yeah. I'll play 3:1 with glee here. I might just get 4:1....

LSU @ Kentucky - bad time for this for kentucky. They had a bad game last week, and now they face easily the best defense in the country. This is going to be very tough on Woodson, and if he makes the decisions he did against SC, it's going to be VERY painful for him. He'll get beat through the ground, and he'll throw several picks. Not to mention there's no way in hell the defense contains Hester. I may well lay the road chalk here...

Auburn @ Arkansas - value please. pretty please?

Tulane @ UAB - value please? pretty please.

UCONN @ UVA - virginia chalk looks good to me here. UVA at home is infinitely better than UVA on the road. not sure why they sucked so bad down here in TN last week...but boy did they.

Marshall @ Tulsa - Tulsa does not believe in defense. AT ALL. offense is great. defense...? what's that? Even Marshall should get 30-40 on these guys. I like a possible over play here...

Indiana @ Michigan St - do we have another michigan team who can't defend the spread offense?

 

[redbearde]

Texas A&M @ Texas Tech - MOTHERFUCK AGGIE. won't paly this one, but I'm a BIG red raider fan this week...

Missouri @ Oklahoma - no interest.

Colorado @ Kansas St - the buffs are putting together a bit of a run here...perhaps it continues while K State tries to recover from a rivalry loss.

SMU @ Smiss - gotta look at the QB situation at southern miss. SMU is terrible, but if Smiss has no QBs left, SMU ML is worth a shot.

Central Florida @ South Florida - UCF better not fuck up at all if they want a shot to win this one...they could do nothing but fuck up against ECU. 3 picks and 2 lost fumbles made the 500 yards of offense and Smith running for almost 150......all totally irrelevant. USF is the better team, and they'll prey on UCF mistakes...and there will be ucf mistakes....

East Carolina @ UTEP - ?????? no value, but come the fuck on...

BYU @ UNLV - I'm a fan of BYU. I think UNLV will get creamed. we shall see...

Washington @ Arizona St - I'll be interested in bjorks' opinion, but at first glance this looks like a distinct possibility for a good 3.5 or 4:1ish type play...

Arizona @ Southern Cal - I think they have less chance than the 1 in a million that stanford hit the lottery with last week. GL on this one, macdamn...but it ain't for me.

UL Lafayette @ Arkansas St - ULL should score some, but Arkie St wins. I think they're just better.

UL Monroe @ North Texas - North Texas has a stud for a QB, and he's a damned tough kid. But UNT needs to be able to stop the run, and they can't. .....not sure I'll join you on this one, but I certainly have sympathy for the play...

MTSU @ Memphis - Now HERE'S a game I can enjoy watching...memphis getting beat by cross-state rival MTSU...not sure the blue raiders aren't better than memphis this year. I'll play this one. I'll get at least 150, and that's worth it to me.

 

[redbearde]

FrankieGotti, thanks for your thoughts, bro. I'll probably hit that one...

 

[pags11]

frank,

excellent info. on Pitt, much appreciated...I'm on Navy here as well...

redbearde,

not sure if you were aware that RB Cedric Peerman left the game in the 2nd quarter vs. MTSU last night and didn't return...he's a huge part of what they do on offense...that, and Connecticut's playing some very good football right now...

 

[redbearde]

thanks pags...i didn't know that about peerman. Dunno about Uconn playing good football. They were gifted a win over Temple a couple weeks ago, and then they beat up on an inept Akron team...syracuse aside, uconn may not get another win this season.

 

[redbearde]

first numbers I've seen are at 5dimes...

Navy +175
Wake Forest +210
SJSU +738
Purdue +195
Syracuse +650

and wake forest has gone up. After last week's performance by the noles, that's not surprising. No reason to think I can't find over 2:1 somewhere on Purdue, too. good start for the week's numbers.

 

[counselor]

San Jose St.

Lots of angles to like the side and ML here IMHO...

 

[AgainstThePublic]

that sc line has got me puzzled. i think it might have been knocked down a few points because unc throttled miami at home. i was thinking around -10 or so.

 

[Aztec4Life]

red - Bro, we missed cashing in on Central Michigan last week (BIG TIME). I remember going back to that +400 ML over, and over, and over...yet I couldn't bring myself to pull the trigger. Figures, it's always the one you're least confident on that ends up being the easiest.

How about that Akron win as time expired? Frickin insane!

GL this week!

 

[Dmoney416]

Ok, they are out at BM. Here's is what I thinks looks good:

Wake Forest +200
San Jose St +850
Minnesota +220
Air Force +160 - I think they lose, but it is good value considering the Rams are winless.
Temple +400 - This makes no sense at all to me.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Wake? Come on, seriously looks good when you look at all the other Thursday Night Games (home dog; gotta love it), but I see FSU taking one back IN THEIR HOUSE. Demon Deacons are always a tough team at home; usually they get worn down. If the Noles get the inches, they'll look like one of the teams of distant memory. If not, they could be in for a struggle. Some bizarre holding calls have brought back some nice runs lately. Hey, at least they produced points on their first drive!!! Finally, a good start. Passing game has improved with the XL dimension. The defense (besides the missed tackles in the first half v. NCSt.) has been solid. Everette Brown is finding his way to the quarterback and getting tackles for loss (four sacks and six tackles for loss this season)...I'm sure the double teams are coming; should free up Flu or Bud Thacker (if he's back this week/Budd Thacker said after practice he has been cleared and he did everything except goal line. He fully expects to play). Special teams have been flawless besides a 46 yarder and 51 yard miss on a soggy field, and a 46 yarder into the wind in Jax v. Alabama. When they need a pooch kick, Gano is dropping them inside the 10; when they need a deep ball, he's nailing it. Preston Parker is always a threat on the returns. Kickoffs are sailing out of the endzone...not too many kickers are doing that these days. FSU has the weapons to put on a show. They just need to put the talent to work and create that inch. They left a lot of points on the field after the NCSt. game. Even with all the mistakes, they found a way to win. It's all about one assignment at a time and TEAM play. I'm sure the crowd of 31000+ will be jacked. I won't take the moneyline, and I'd almost drop a bomb on the -6...but I won't...FSU is process focused and I'm seeing improvement every week. So, where do you think the line goes from here???

 

[redbearde]

firstoff, whichever of you folks sent me the IMs from the name HawaiiGayblah blah blah and told me he is a fraud...you came off as a 16 year old child trying to tell me about someone you don't like in homeroom. I blocked you. Graduate to adolescence and perhaps I won't block you next time.

San Jose St.

Lots of angles to like the side and ML here IMHO...

please list them. the only thing I can see is the slightly short week and it's Hawaii on the mainland. I'd love to hear your thoughts, but I think SJSU sucks complete ass...not like last year when they managed the big upset early in the year over stanford...

that sc line has got me puzzled. i think it might have been knocked down a few points because unc throttled miami at home. i was thinking around -10 or so.

I fully agree. just waiting...

Aztec4Life, I'm just glad I dodged laying points with colorado st....
:seeya:

Dmoney416, what is it that makes you think Air Force will lose? Colorado St is going to have to consider playing some defense at some point if they plan on winning...

 

[JimmyHoffa]

I think it was a drunk Fondy alias.

 

[counselor]

firstoff, whichever of you folks sent me the IMs from the name HawaiiGayblah blah blah and told me he is a fraud...you came off as a 16 year old child trying to tell me about someone you don't like in homeroom. I blocked you. Graduate to adolescence and perhaps I won't block you next time...

Sorry...

:36_11_6:

please list them. the only thing I can see is the slightly short week and it's Hawaii on the mainland. I'd love to hear your thoughts, but I think SJSU sucks complete ass...not like last year when they managed the big upset early in the year over stanford...

This was on my radar last week, but I won't lie to you. I got most of the information below from another capper I have followed the last two years in CFB for which I have the utmost respect (and admiration for the money he's made me) (you might know him), but here is the Cliff's Notes version:

Home dog on national T.V. Although not on national T.V., harkin back to La Tech?
SJSU started 0-3 losing to Stanford, Kansas St. and ASU, all on the road.
SJSU are now 3-3 and playing much better.
SJSU plays well at home. Their only loss at home last year was to Boise St.
Experience on offense and defense, including All-American CB and conference’s leading tackler, SJSU RB Yonus Davis (a 1,000 yard rusher LY) is back, and they have a backup RB that is solid (ball control)
Strength of schedules so far this year, and arguably UH’s toughest foe so far TY.
One less day of travel, time difference, and long flight for UH.
SJSU HC vs. his old team (of which still retains at least 4 coaches from his "old" staff).
SJSU revenge factor in that LY UH lead 34-17 late and threw 3 TD’s in the 4Q to embarrass SJSU.

That's all I got. Maybe not enough...

 

[redbearde]

JimmyHoffa,

I just started looking at this one in depth, but one thing I do know is the NCSU tendencies...and the fact that the wolfpack covered that game is a testament to the Noles disinterest. If they are that motivated against the Deacs this week, then they will lose. Florida St isn't quite as good as a win over NCSU indicates. I'm somewhat impressed with the win over Colorado at this point, but beating UAB 34-24 isn't a testimony of a good team...and beating NCSU this year...well.......no chance in hell I was playing that one. I think NCSU gets no more wins this season, and I hope like hell they're faves at ECU in a couple weeks.

Alabama doesn't have the typical defense of the SEC...they give up a LOT of yards, and Saban's been doing the late 4th Q comeback shit a lot...FSU just managed to stop them. Bama managed 3.3 ypc...and that ain't great, but it's tolerable. FSU put a hurtin on Colorado defensively. GJ to the noles there.

but UAB...wtf is that about? They were down 2 TDs in the 1H, and they allowed 4.3ypc! This is supposed to be a good rushing defense. And don't expect to see a 500 yard performance out of the FSU offense, either...just because UAB plays like they're in a 7 on 7 drill on defense doesn't mean everyone else (WF in particular this year) will do so, too.

So I guess what I'm saying is that I'm not quite as impressed with the Noles as you are. I would have laid the chalk last week if I thought they could score with any semblance of reliability, but I don't. They needed a pick 6 to get the lead to 17, and that didn't cover it...and don't think for a moment that this NCSU defense is a Good Defense...cus it ain't. maybe in 2 years, but sure as shit not now.

MAYBE...just MAYBE...the Noles will want revenge for the 30-0 shelling they took at home last year. I rather think it'll be a repeat of Texas vs Kansas State...

I'm seeing WF +200 out there, and if I can get another quarter in this sort of game, I'll take it every time. Hell, I'd take 2:1, but I'm greedy and I want more.

Wake Forest ML is going to be a play for me.

also

Navy ML

consider Pitt.

Played pretty well at Michigan St, but injuries have mounted, and the latest loss (Jason Pinkston) is a significant blow to the O-Line.
http://pittsburgh.rivals.com/barrie...pt=content.asp&cid=721438&fid=&tid=&mid=&rid=

and also:
http://pittsburgh.rivals.com/barrie...pt=content.asp&cid=721437&fid=&tid=&mid=&rid=

There was senior receiver Derek Kinder, who tore his ACL in training camp. And freshman offensive guard Chris Jacobson, who aggravated a knee injury in camp. And sophomore running back Kevin Collier, who broke his wrist in camp. And junior quarterback Bill Stull, who sustained ligament damage to his right thumb in the season-opener against Eastern Michigan. And junior defensive tackle Gus Mustakas, who suffered a torn ACL against Grambling State.

And that doesn't even count defensive end Doug Fulmer, whose spring ball knee injury has kept him off the practice field through the first month of the season. Or freshman offensive tackle Dan Matha, whose own shoulder injury required surgery and will prevent him from playing until the spring.

the Panthers actually held the huskies rungame in relative check, but offensive ineptitude (fumbles and even a pick 6) made for a very bad day...
Pitt didn't even get their second TD until near the end of the day.

and then UVA just creamed em...through the air AND the ground.

4.1ypc for 173 yards rushing.

from here:
http://navysports.cstv.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/100507aad.html

Comments from Navy head football coach Paul Johnson following practice on Thursday, Oct. 4

On how dangerous Pitt is

"They are real dangerous. They are explosive. They have some good skill on offense and, like I said yesterday, you don't get to be 10th in the country on defense after five games unless you are doing something right. They have some good players. It will be a challenge for us."

On the time off between games

"We just had two days off and now we are back on a regular schedule. We will have two practices in pads and a couple in shells. It's about the same."

On Pitt needing a win and looking at Navy as a chance to get healthy

"I'm sure they are looking at us as a chance to get healthy. Everybody does. I'm sure they want to win. I don't think we've played anybody that didn't want to win. Our backs are against the wall too. Every week half the teams win and half the teams lose and that's just the way it is. Everybody wants to win. I don't think any team needs a win worse than another team. I guarantee you that when they run out on the field on Wednesday night both teams are going to want to win, but it's the team that is the best prepared and that executes the best is the one that is going to win."

Trying to counteract Pitt's size on the offensive line

"Every team we play is like that. It's the nature of the beast. Everybody we play is bigger than us on both sides of the ball and we can't worry about it. It is what it is."

On if the option helps counteract the size disadvantage

"It probably doesn't hurt. It gives us a chance to not have to block everybody. Hopefully we are doing the same thing on defense. We can't line up and do what everybody else does on either side of the ball."

On Pitt's defense

"They get off blocks, they run to the ball, they play hard and they are well coached."

On if Pitt having extra time to prepare for the option will help them

"I don't worry about stuff I can't control. It might help them and it might hurt them. Maybe they will try and do too much."

On Joey Bullen

"I thought he kicked well. He missed a long kick that, with the wind, I thought he could make and he kicked one head high that got blocked. Both he and Harmon are good kickers and we will try to use them in whatever way gives us the best chance to win. One might kick-off and one might kick field goals, one might kick short field goals and the other might kick long field goals. I haven't decided yet. They are both good kickers."

Comments from Navy outside linebacker Ram Vela following practice on Thursday, Oct. 4

On changing positions

"I was a recruited quarterback, played some receiver and slot back at the prep school, then came here and started out as a slot back, was moved to corner, tried to play safety and that didn't work, moved back to corner and now I'm at outside linebacker. I'm wondering if the defensive line is next."

On the White House incident when the team visited in April

"That was really awkward. I was about to walk in and the lady checking my ID saw my name and said into a microphone that "he's here" and she asked me to step to the side so I stepped to the side and a secret service agent came and just started hammering me with questions about where I was from, when I was born, just a bunch of questions. He had a piece of paper with him and I was able to see it and it had my name and I guess the guy who they thought I was matched up to me completely. He had the same name, same height, same weight, everything. They were looking for tattoos on my hand and everything. It was pretty scary. I didn't know what to think. I thought maybe I didn't pay a traffic ticket or something and there was a warrant out for me that I didn't know about. Finally they let me go in with the team. It took about 15 minutes and all the guys really gave me a hard time. Everybody thought I had a secret life. I guess the guy they were looking for lived in Minnesota. His name was Ramiro Ray Vela and that is my name. His nickname was even Ram like mine."

On moving from slot back to defense

"It was fine with me. I didn't think I was going to get much playing time at slot back anyway so I figured my chances to play were better on defense. I just had to adjust to the change because I didn't come from a defensive background. I'm just happy I'm getting a chance to play."

On his size

"I think I'm the smallest outside linebacker in the country. I'm just glad the coaches think I can help the team. Whatever is best for the team I'm all for it. I just want to help the team."

On making the transition from corner to outside linebacker

"It was kind of a strange transition, but when you get on the field you just play and let your instincts take over and the rest will take care of itself."

I think Navy will be able to move the ball fairly well, and Pitt's been playing terrible ball for the last month. As injuries have mounted, the situation has gotten worse.

Then of course there's Wannstadt. I'm delighted to fade him every chance I get.

I'll be on

Navy ML

 

[redbearde]

Sorry...

:36_11_6:

Was it really you?

This was on my radar last week, but I won't lie to you. I got most of the information below from another capper I have followed the last two years in CFB for which I have the utmost respect (and admiration for the money he's made me) (you might know him), but here is the Cliff's Notes version:

Home dog on national T.V. Although not on national T.V., harkin back to La Tech?
SJSU started 0-3 losing to Stanford, Kansas St. and ASU, all on the road.
SJSU are now 3-3 and playing much better.
SJSU plays well at home. Their only loss at home last year was to Boise St.
Experience on offense and defense, including All-American CB and conference’s leading tackler, SJSU RB Yonus Davis (a 1,000 yard rusher LY) is back, and they have a backup RB that is solid (ball control)
Strength of schedules so far this year, and arguably UH’s toughest foe so far TY.
One less day of travel, time difference, and long flight for UH.
SJSU HC vs. his old team (of which still retains at least 4 coaches from his "old" staff).
SJSU revenge factor in that LY UH lead 34-17 late and threw 3 TD’s in the 4Q to embarrass SJSU.

That's all I got. Maybe not enough...

Okay...some interesting thoughts in there, and Louisiana Tech sure did give em all they could handle. Maybe Colt Brennan WILL play and he won't be 100%.

:smiley_acbe:

 

[counselor]

No, it wasn't me. Come on, it was obviously drunk Fondy...

 

[KobeJames823]

Love Indiana this week, along with Wake and Wisconsin.

 

[redbearde]

Temple +380 - I already lost 20 cents, and I don't want to lose any more value. Akron's best moment this year was squeaking by the broncos last week on a last second kickoff return. It WAS incredible...but perhaps it also allows for a letdown here. And though I find myself saying the team I bet on last week is CRAP this week, it's usually true. I bet on crap a lot. Akron shouldn't be laying 10 to anyone in Div1A...and getting almost 4:1 on Temple is absolutely GREAT value....maybe if I wait for MB to get around to opening a market for this game I'd get more...perhaps a few cents over +400, but I seriously doubt it, and I think it's very likely this line goes down over the next few days. And the last thing I would expect is for Dr Bob to take Akron...

 

[redbearde]

Some key injuries pare down my list...

Wisconsin. Without Swan...wisky has a bigger problem on offense, and PJ Hill has sat out parts of the last couple games with a sore pussy (not sure what that's about). Lance Smith is also out for all road games due to suspension out of stupidity (that one's been out for a while). The wisky numbers have gone up from 4 to 6.5ish. I might still get some value out of it, but the idea for this one was that Wisky would outscore Morelli. I'm thinking that's less and less likely. Still...probly a very low scoring game.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3054726

 

[redbearde]

Florida St injuries:

Maurice Harris LB day-to-day - Knee - 10/2/07
An MRI of his left knee revealed a sprain. He missed Weeks 5 and 6.

Antwane Greenlee OL day-to-day - Neck - 10/2/07
Did not play in his team's last two games.

Doug Thacker DT day-to-day - Toe - 10/2/07
He has missed his team's last two games with a sprained toe.

David Overmyer G day-to-day - Knee - 10/2/07
He left Week 5 with a knee injury and did not play in Week 6.

Matt Dunham FB day-to-day - Ankle - 9/26/07
Recovering from a sprained ankle.

Dumaka Atkins G day-to-day - Knee - 9/13/07
Has yet to play this season as he nurses a strained knee.

Marcus Sims RB out for season - Ankle - 10/2/07
Suffered a broken ankle and will miss the rest of the season.

Kevin McNeil DE Out indefinitely - Academics - 9/7/07
Will be sidelined indefinitely due to academics.

Mister Alexander S out for season - Knee - 9/7/07
Will miss the season with an ACL injury.

Jonathan Hannah TE out for season - Academics - 9/3/07
Will not play this season because of academics.

Joe Surratt FB Out indefinitely - Leg - 8/18/07
had surgery on fractured right fibula. Unknown when he might play

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Colton Brennan QB day-to-day - Knee - 10/7/07 notesHe was knocked out of Saturday's game in the second quarter after a hard hit. He suffered an ankle injury and will be re-evaluated in the next day or two.

UCLA Bruins
Ben Olson QB day-to-day - Knee - 10/8/07
Suffered a knee injury against Notre Dame in Week 6 and will undergo athroscopic knee surgery as a result. It is not known how long he'll be out of action.

Brigham Harwell DT Out indefinitely - Knee - 9/26/07 notesSidelined indefinitely with a torn MCL.

Patrick Cowan QB Out indefinitely - Knee - 9/25/07
Sidelined indefinitely with a torn knee ligament.

Kevin Brown DT out for season - Ankle - 9/18/07
Suffered a season ending ankle injury.

Ryan Moya TE out for season - Leg - 9/12/07
Sustained a broken leg and will miss the rest of the season.

Raymond Carter RB out for season - Knee - 8/12/07
He will need surgery to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee and will the entire 2007 season.

not that I'm betting UCLA...they don't even play this week. Keep an eye on the QB situation there, though, because they're playing a walk-on right now.

 

[signalcaller]

GL this week Red. Hope you hit some big ML. Might ride along for a few of them.

 

[redbearde]

a few more bits about FSU and Wake Forest...

Florida St is 88th in the nation in Rushing yards per game with 120.6. This is on par with Utah St, Northwestern, Utah, and Florida Atlantic. Wake Forest is 29th in the nation defending the rush at 111 yards per game. This is on par with Oklahoma St, Pitt, Miami, and Iowa.

Wake Forest is 72nd in the nation with 139ypg. ...on par with Vandy, Boston College, Miami, OH, and Colorado.....while FSU is 11th allowing 81.8ypg...on par with Penn St, UCLA, Az St, and Wyoming.

Should be either a whole lot of passing or a whole lot of not scoring in this game.

Florida St is 63rd in the nation in passing offense with 226ypg while Wake Forest defends the pass at 83rd allowing 247ypg.

Wake forest passing for just under 200ypg (84th), and FSU defends the pass 220ypg(60th).

Only big advantage I see is in the Florida St rushing defense. And even though they held NCSU under 100 yards rushing (96), NCSU has the 105th rushing attack in the nation...averaging 99 rushing ypg. I'd like to see WF's special teams make a play or two. The difference in this one is likely going to be just that.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Red,

You have your mind made up...I can't change your pick. As for the the injuries and a few other aspects of the game, I can tell you Bud Thacker is playing this week. The rest of those guys??? We've been playing without most, since the first few games. TE gets some depth back this week with John Frady. Caz is a solid blocker and a big target too. All I can say from watching the team from week to week, is there has been improvement on the offensive line, quarterback, and the running game too (believe it or not); the young guys are learning the system up front. The defensive improvements are a no brainer.

Again, several runs were called back in the NCSt. (one 14 yds. and one 18 yds.)...they left 200 rushing yards out on the field; Alabama: The Tide had what??? 3 first downs in the first half? They got their yardage with minutes remaining and some late garbage scores...that catch was not a catch either...the guy was knocked out and dropped the ball before he had any possession; they felt bad for that fcuker. The 2.3 ypc for FSU...most of that was while they were stacking the box while Drew Weatherford was at QB. Once XL got in the game, they didn't blitz as much and they did not load the box. XL at QB creates space. The threat of him running allows the backs to become the extra blocker and the offense ends up with a hat on a hat. Trickett will have the mistakes corrected with the other blockers; but half (3) of the calls were no calls. Seriously, when was the last game you saw 6 holding calls??? Flag happy fcuks. Maybe they should investigate the officiating crew from that NCSt game...kidding. ON THIRD AND ONE: "Ever since Colorado, which was the game we didn't do well, we're up in the 80 percents now on third-and-short. That's a little bit better. I think we're making some progress. The backs are doing a good job of sticking it now; we're not dancing and looking. There's a lot of combinations that go together to get things going. I think [Antone Smith] is kind of figuring it out this week. He looks like he's really kind of figuring things out. Hopefully we'll grow and keep getting better and better."---Rick Trickett. UAB: Drew gave them a gift at the beginning of the game and they ran with it...QB had some wheels too. They didn't run it often, but when they did, they did pick up some yardage. Mickey was not at the game. The defense came around on the next game. Again, a lot of 3 and outs and they were stuck out on the field.

The receivers are catching the ball (FINALLY), and Carr is a threat in one on one situations. They are getting more of those looks since XL is a run threat. Also, the passing ypg is a tough stat to look at overall...look at it since XL has been in there and with The Team learning and improving...he threw for 200 yards in the second half of the Alabama game. Also, he threw for 250 yards v. NCSt...and they do have a decent pass defense. Of coarse the rushing has sucked, because they want our QBs to beat them...prove it. They've found ways to win, even when they have not been perfect. FSU is going to win this game. I wish I could get you on the right side. You've got your plays down though, and you're winning, so keep on keeping on, man.

Continuing on: The defense has shown improvement too, and this has to be a result of less 3 and outs on offense, and again, young guys learning as the season has progressed. The Offense hasn't turned the ball over like they were, and XL gets rid of the ball a lot quicker than DW, so less sacks. Some of the good things I saw during the NCSt. game were the offense overcoming a lot of 1st and 20's...The defense corrected their mistakes (missed tackles) after the 1st quarter, and they came up with a key turnover. Even with the Noles being behind by 3, and tied at the half, they were never in a position to lose control of the game. They are a second half team so far...though we did finally see some offense in the first half. They were inches away from taking control on offense, and the defense ended up making the play they needed to put it away.

I think you can find +'s and -'s with both teams in the statistics. FSU's defense is better. They are better in turnover margin. Total Offense are equal. I might be wrong, but I think FSU's special teams are better. Like I keep saying though, the changes and assignment improvement has helped the team make up ground in some categories. Is there a site that gives stats over the last 2 weeks??? That might tell a different story.


Regardless, Wake is going to match up well with the aggressive defense, but don't think Mickey and Chuck won't have a better scheme than what they did last year. Also, it is my personal belief, that the Florida Stati's has played a more tougher schedule, such as. Seriously, the competition has been similar (Clemson , Colorado, Alabama v. Boston College, NebrasUCka, Maryland). Difference: FSU has beaten 2 out of 3, and controlled 2 out of 3, losing to Clemson by 6...dammit. Wake was in all the tough games, but they did come up short in 2. I won't comment on the first 3 games anymore...the team has changed since then...offense has changed and those changes have carried over to a better defense.

I agree with you on the NCSt. schedule. Maybe they'll get up for the UNC game or ECU??? They're going through changes and they'll get better with time. I think they have a good coach, and Chuck had some decent recruiting classes.

Okay, man. Enjoy the game. I can't wait. I can't keep writing like this either. Gotta get some work done. Take 'er easy.

God Bless America and Go Noles.

 

[redbearde]

Jimmy, thanks for the info. I haven't played it yet due to not seeing a higher number like I'd hoped. I do want to say this though...just because I play a ML dog doesn't mean I necessarily my play will win. Rather, I play it when I think there is sufficient value in the number that overcomes the risk involved. If I think Wake has a 40% chance to win, and I can get 2:1, then I will make that wager.....hoping for the win.

GL this weekend.

 

[macdamn]

I think you may have talked me into a Temple play buddy.:tiphat:

 

[RambleOn]

Red - Just a quick thought - and I don't know if you put much stock in power ratings, but I have looked over the Akron/Temple game and the average power rating out there says that Akron should be favored by 18 over Temple! Obviously, Akron can't lay 18 or the entire world would be on temple, but I believe that is why the line is so high. Just a heads up - I'll be playing Akron probably.

 

[redbearde]

Ramble, you're a brave man to lay points with Akron. GL this weekend.

Navy @ Pitt

A lot of folks seem to think Pitt has a great running defense. Before you make a mess of yourself in giving them credit for such great rush defense numbers, consider who they played to get there. Okay, holding Michigan st to 2.8ypc is pretty good, and holding EMU to 1.7 doesn't suck, but be real. EMU is a passing spread offense. Grambling St didn't do so much at 2.7ypc, and Connecticut got over 3ypc in their shellacking of the pitt pussies...

but UVA managed over 4ypc for 173 yards on 42 carries.

a true top 10 defense shouldn't allow that shit, and I don't think you can give wannstedt's boys that much credit. Turnovers allow for short fields, so the other teams don't get so many FDs. UVA still had more FDs than Pitt.

The key tonight for wanny is to keep the mistakes by his QB to a minimum. He wants his QB to lead his team to 28 points. McCoy's a good RB, and Navy doesn't have a great defense by any means, but one thing they are is disciplined, and they should be able to contain the pitt rushing offense....and when Bostick starts tossing it, it'll only be a matter of time before he gives it away. If NAvy doesn't give up a big play for a TD, then the middies should do just fine, I think, to keep up and have a very good shot at the outright win.

I'm not going to sit here and declare Navy will dominate this game, and I do think Pitt should be favored, but I will be absolutely stunned out of my mind if Pitt dominates it, and even though I hate the number because I'm greedy, I really think this game warrants a play on Navy ML.

best I can get now is Navy +165ish...that includes the commission at MB.

 

[redbearde]

Wake Forest +215

This may very well flame out as a drubbing in return like Wake gave the noles last year...but I doubt it. NC State found some running room, and I feel certain that Kenneth Moore will too. I do think I'll need a mistake or two out of Xavier Lee, but I also think I will get them. GJ to him for not throwing a pick against NCSU, but the wolfpack is hardly a litmus test for a team trying to get to the ACC championship game.

At any rate, I think Wake has a much better than 1 in 3 chance to win this game, and I'll roll with over 2:1 every day for that.

 

[Dmoney416]

red, just caught your post asking me why I think Air Force will lose.

Just a gut feeling based on Colorado St having to win sometime. I've used that argument the last two weeks though.

 

[ccgall]

what is "chalk"??

 

[redbearde]

Purdue +200

If I wait for MB, I could possibly get more, but I dunno if I'm going to have enough folks leaning toward laying chalk with Big Blue against another spread offense. They did at least win versus Northwestern...that's something. At any rate, most of my books have dropped the price on this one, and WSEX still has 2:!, so I'll get it while the gettins good.

 

[redbearde]

what is "chalk"??

chalk is a sports bettors' colloquialism when referring to the amount of money or points you must lay to get the bet.

Pitt -4 is 4 points of chalk for pitt.

Pitt -200 is an extra dollar of chalk. One must wager $2 to win $1 and get back $3 for the trouble.

Dmoney, at this point, I'm not so sure Colorado St *does* have to win sometime...

:hang:

 

[redbearde]

Eastern Michigan is a tad light at 160-175. I'd play at 175, but I want to wait and see if I can get more.

Louisville looks good at 375, but I think I can get more in another day once the MB markets get going.

Mississippi St looks like ass at 220-240. at 7 I think I should have a bit more for that one...Same with Minnesota.

San Diego St is right around 440-450. ...still not sure that's worth it. What do you think, Aztec? Your boys have better than a 30% chance to beat Utah?

Army is rather static at either 425 or 450. And I really like that one...Aside from Ball St's "hot knife through butter" defense and Northern Illinois's Joke of a football team.......the Chips haven't done shit. The questions here are can Trimble make enough plays?, can the Army defense contain lefevour?, and can Army win the special teams game?.....I think they can, and if they have a 25% shot at winning, then this is worth the shot. I'd still like 5:1 instead of 4.5:1...that extra 50 cents would certainly make it feel more worthwhile.

Rice is sitting between 1000 and 1200. I'm hoping to get a bit more than that out of MB in a couple days. If Dr Bob fucks me on this one, then I may hunt him down and flog him with a refrigerator. This is a HUGE opportunity against a team of questionable competence...especially defensively. There's definitely value at 12:1, but if I could get a few dollars more...15:1, for instance, then I would be ecstatic. For the record, I think +21.5 is a most EXCELLENT play as well.

Wisconsin has lost Swan. PJ Hill will need a huge game, and that defense needs to actually play some. Morelli should serve up some opportunities for some huge defensive plays for Wisky, and without Swan and with Hill nursing a weekly sore pussy...this might be damned tough. I see 210 to 250 right now. I'd like what I had with Iowa...310...probably won't get that.

Oklahoma St is static at 160. That's worthwhile as I damned near think they should be favorites. Hasn't been much interest there, though, and I'll hope for no Dr Bob fuckings on this one too...cus I want to wait for MB to see if I can get 175...if not more.

Air Force @ Colorado St - AFA is at 150-160 right now, and again I think that's a good play...especially since I think CSU should not be favored. I may not be able to better on this one, but I'm going to take the wait and see approach here, too. If I get dr bobbed on this one I can't see it bothering me too awful much. Air Force needs to grow a little more competence, too.

Indiana - this is one of those games where I might take a chance based on previous seasons meltdowns. I rode the last half of last season fading Sparty, and I made good money doing it, but I'm not sure 170 is worth it. I do see a 190, and once we get over 2:1...and that's a possibility...then I might just be interested in playing that one. Probably won't bother, though...as Garf said in his thread, the numbers have caught up with Indiana.

Colorado is sitting at 190 to 205. Wish I could call the coach and ask if he's winning this game or not...These teams are damned near equals in rushing offense, total offense, and all sorts of defense. I can get 2:1 with one of those teams. ...in fact, it's the team who's on a nice win streak vs a team who just lost their big rivalry game. HMMMMM..... lemme think.... So the question is, do I think this line will go up or not. I actually will be surprised if Dr Bob doesn't take this game, so I'll go ahead and hit it while the hittin's good.

Colorado +205

 

[redbearde]

SMU @ Southern Miss - Southern Miss couldn't stop fucking up last week. It was reeeeally bad. This line has risen for SMISS, and I can't believe they've repaired their QBs in that short of a time. Still, at +9 I should be seeing better than 250 to 300. And Southern Methodist is reeally bad too. Just not as many 'e's as smiss has displayed right now. I think this line keeps going up, so I'm not playing it yet. This is also the sort of game with which I can get a LOT better value on MB...

Washington is sitting at 350 to 400. Line hasn't done much...still lookin out for Bjorks's thread. By the numbers, I don't think it's a good play....but there sure is a lot of thickness in the line.

North Texas is at 250 to 280, and folks are playing UL Monroe...I think. The line is at 8 at Greek, at any rate.

MTSU @ Memphis - the Blue Raiders can outplay Memphis, and with any luck they will. This is a big rivalry to Mid Tenn St., and it would make the team feel successful to win beat Memphis. Memphis, as I've said before, is one of those teams I'm bigoted against. They play poorly on defense, their OLine sucks for their RB, and the QB typically sucks complete ass...though he did do well against Marshall, the MTSU defense should be a whole other animal. I'm waiting on the number though...I want a smidge more than 1.6:1. Boy did the blue raiders deserve a win against UVA last week...

 

[Dmoney416]

SOUTHERN MISS - Quarterback Jeremy Young (10/8, high ankle sprain) is doubtful for Saturday's game against SMU. Quarterback Martevious Young (10/4, broken leg) is expected to miss the remainder of the season. Guard Micah Brown (9/19, foot surgery) is out indefinitely.

My guess is that Reaves will see the field again for So. Miss

Also, North Texas is back down to +7 at BM, +7.5 at WSEX, and +7.5 (-110) at Pinnacle. Might want to jump now unless you think Matchbook will give you a better line.

 

[redbearde]

yeah...not too scared of reaves...

North Texas opened at 7ish...I don't think it's been going down. in any case, I'm not hitting it because I REALLY WANT TO PLAY THEM...rather it'll be value based. If I don't get the number I want, then I won't play it.

 

[Dmoney416]

I think it will end up at 7 - BM had it at 8 yesterday, which is why I am saying that the 8 at the The Greek may not last much longer.

 

[redbearde]

if that's the case, then I will happily not place money on North Texas.

 

[redbearde]

New Mexico St @ Louisiana Tech

Is this a joke?

NMSU +285 seems awful high.

ah...I see.

Chase Holbrook is out.

Who knows something about his backup?

 

[Wolfpack17]

I would be absolutely shocked if ncsu is favored against ecu next week. I mean shocked..I see the line being around ECU -6

 

[redbearde]

you and me both...but it's something to watch out for.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Understood. I believe I remember you writing up your thoughts on the ML picks and the odds value in each play---quite some time ago. I either read something on here by you, or it was a general article on picking dogs. Obviously, your system works; you're making money. Thanks again for the write-ups and I look forward tailing MOST of your picks.

 

[redbearde]

Illinois is at

-3 -110 at 5dimes
-6 -110 at beted
-4 -110 at a lot of places
-3.5 -110 at a lot of other places
-3.5 +102 & +101 at MB

I think it keeps going up, so I'm going to go ahead and take Illinois -3...w00t...

 

[redbearde]

Understood. I believe I remember you writing up your thoughts on the ML picks and the odds value in each play---quite some time ago. I either read something on here by you, or it was a general article on picking dogs. Obviously, your system works; you're making money. Thanks again for the write-ups and I look forward tailing MOST of your picks.

please don't misunderstand me when all your work doesn't talk me off the play.....I really do appreciate the write-up, and please don't hesitate to tell me the same things next week. It just all boils down to a value judgment..more art than total numbers, though math and statistics are obviously involved...

and I look at this way. if you go against me on every single one, then I can hit 40%, you can hit 60%, and we can both make money.

so GL to you this week, sir.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Here is some added confidence in your pick:

When quarterback Xavier Lee missed Tuesday's practice and Bobby Bowden wasn't available to address the situation the speculation on the Internet and sports radio stations ran wild.

There was one newspaper report that Lee's absence was likely "unexcused" and there was even some radio chatter that redshirt freshman Christian Ponder would get the start.

According to Florida State head coach Bobby Bowden, that's not the case.

<!--Start Lee X (med) Image--><SCRIPT language=Javascript>document.write(insertImage('http://vmedia.rivals.com/uploads/1061/534951.jpg', '534951.jpg', 0, 283, 233, 1, 'Lee will be making his fifth career start vs. Wake.', 'Gene Williams - Warchant.com', 1192031071000, 'Lee X (med)', 1061, 'Align=Left'));</SCRIPT><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=241 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=235>

</TD><TD width=6 rowSpan=4>

</TD></TR><TR><TD align=right>Gene Williams - Warchant.com</TD></TR><TR><TD height=3>

</TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle>Lee will be making his fifth career start vs. Wake.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- End Lee X (med) Image-->"Yesterday we had to go without our first team quarterback who was tied up with academic issues," Bowden said during Wednesday's weekly ACC teleconference. "We hoped he would get back out there in time but he didn't. We knew where he was."

Even though Lee missed a practice, he will start Thursday night's game at Wake Forest.

"There is no change in his situation," Bowden said. "He had an appointment with a professor making up some work. We were hoping and praying he would get out early but he didn't. There is no issue there... We'll try to give him more reps today to be sure he knows what he's doing."

Florida State will hold a short practice early this afternoon before boarding a plane for Winston-Salem, NC. But with this being a short week anyway, having your starting quarterback miss one of the two main practices is a concern.

"When you only have two days of practice missing one day scares you," Bowden said.

So far this season, Lee has completed 28-of-47 pass attempts for 481 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He will be making his fifth career start on Thursday.

---Warchant