CFB ML Dogs week 6

Really liking the VT and Kentucky ML plays, and I'm all over Arky State!

GL bro, and love the outlook on tonight's UNDER! :cheers:
 
thanks Aztec.

Folks, I need some suggestions. I have an inordinate number of plays already...yet there are still several that I like. Unfortunately, we're quickly moving toward Dr Bob fucking with the lines. Undoubtedly some of my lines will get better (especially those I've already played), but I'm concerned, yet again, that my remaining plays will [continue to] drop in value.

Notably, Akron started out much higher, and it keeps dwindling. I think it still has value at +300, but not so much if it goes lower than that.

here's what I want vs what I could get:

Akron +335
(I've lowered this offer twice already), but I could get +300 now.

Georgia +130
I can see almost no chance of getting this one (without DrBob help), and I could simply make it a pick play at slightly positive juice. I think UGA should be perhaps as much as a TD fave on the road in this game - I gots no respect fo UT, yo - so getting them at any sort of dog would be good.

Oklahoma St +246
I've lowered this one already too, but I don't think getting +250 is out of line at all. And I can only get +220 out of the actual books. I wanted over 2.5:1, but honestly 2:1 is more than good, I think...should I drop my desire for an extra quarter here?

Vanderbilt +310
Here's one I really don't know what to do with. I could get +290 now, but I'd really like the extra 20 cents.

So, I want opinions on these lines. Where will they go. Should I go ahead and get them before Dr Bob fucks em over? I have a lot of good numbers already, but I'm a fat greedy fuck...and I always want more.

So, opinions please?
 
redbearde said:
Rice/Southern Miss Under 54.5 (-106)

Here's the thing. last week notwithstanding, Southern Miss plays defense. Young is also out with a high ankle sprain, and Reaves doesn't scramble like Young can...he can pass short drops and quick outs, but he hasn't been consistent with them yet. And he won't run around much.

I don't figure either team will break their TT. In fact, I rather doubt Smiss lets Rice get out of single digits, and without Young some of the more difficult defensive looks will be gone - the option won't be quite as effective, and there won't be any Young scrambles for 10 to 15 yards to get a FD conversion - so I'm thinking Southern Miss will be in the 20s.

What would kill this bet is an overabundance of stupid turnovers leading to immediate points. Otherwise, between offensive ineptitude and defensive stops, this score should be rather low.

or I could be completely wrong.

:shake:
Click to expand...
RED IM WITH YA UNDA BROTHA Im gonna read your posts and ask ya about SC KY game
 
Red with ya on Wisky and Cinncy !!!!!! Cinncy beats Rutgers easily. Now the Badgers Umm not sure but Illini may win but ill take a fg + the hook for my money
 
24 points off turnover for Rice alone.

Southern Miss manages to cough up 7 turnovers. SEVEN.

a 22 pt 4th sucks, but it isn't what fucked the bet up...it was the turnovers leading to short fields and TDs for incompetent offenses.

Southern Miss is down to the slime from an asshole for a QB...and he's their only one. They have 3 injured right now. it'll be interesting to see where the lines for these teams go.
 
redbearde said:
Wisconsin +125

Maybe I'm delusional, but I think Wisky should be favored here. They may have trouble stopping Juice, but if Illinois tries to pass the ball at all, Wisky should get some stops.

And Illinois won't stop PJ Hill. at all.

:shake:
Click to expand...


seeing as they opened a fave this is GREAT value red...

fwiw...my lean on game as it is has come back to the Badger side.
 
I sure hope so, dude...I just locked in another I think you'll like.

Tulsa -3 (-105)

Unless there's some injury to the entire Tulsa offense, I don't understand this one. My only concern, really, is that UTEP manages to do well on offense too. Even so, it's not like laying 18 like last week. Laying a FG is more than reasonable.

:shake:
 
redbearde said:
I sure hope so, dude...I just locked in another I think you'll like.

Tulsa -3 (-105)

Unless there's some injury to the entire Tulsa offense, I don't understand this one. My only concern, really, is that UTEP manages to do well on offense too. Even so, it's not like laying 18 like last week. Laying a FG is more than reasonable.

:shake:
Click to expand...

likey

all value left UGA..ML wise...I made my play right b4 line move luckily with points
 
GODDAMNIT

oklahoma st went up to 238 at MB...good thing I didn't wait.

doh.gif
 
I'm sitting here contemplating plays on

Notre Dame +22
Ball St -12.5
Colorado St -13
Virginia -10

someone talk me out of em...please. I have a helluva lot of plays already.
 
I know. but aside from that it's the MAC......try to find a reason to play central michigan. Not even the ML...try to consider playing the points.

ya...just...can't......

I mean, I want to play Notre Dame, but as long as the EMU is starting I know very well that I can't. And I won't.

Ball St's been running over everyone...on the ground AND in the air. Central michigan can't stop tripping over their own stubby dicks...I honestly expect a 17-21 point BSU victory here...including the garbage time TD...

SDSU just really defines bad...but I really haven't run any numbers there. Macdamn's interest more than anything else spurred my considering it.

UVA on the road is the only reason to NOT take that one...IMO. UVA should totally outclass em here. Every week the Cavs get better, and the O & D-lines should dominate MTSU...which really has fallen quite a ways this year.
 
Eastern Michigan +30.5 (-110)

I meant to play Northwestern plus the points last week. I'm doing it with EMU this week.

I know EMU is bad. Very bad. But they can manage to put a few offensive points. I don't have delusion that EMU will win, though if they manage no turnovers I think they could, but it wouldn't shock me to see EMU keep it within 2TDs. They key is that while Michigan defends garbage like penn st very well, garbage like Buffalo, Northwestern, and App St are able to just slide right on through the defense. With Bohnet in there (and Schmitt making quality decisions), EMU has a shot at scoring a few. As long as EMU keeps the mistakes to a minimum...and doesn't hand Mike Hart too many short fields, this will cover with ease, and if EMU makes a game out of it for the first half like Northwestern did, then, with the ground game pounding the ball for UM, the clock should run out with EMU covering a much closer game than UM wants.

Mario Manningham is suspended for this game. I don't think that matters much with the automatic first down in Mike Hart...but it cannot hurt my chances to have an incredibly talented deep threat gone.

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071003/SPORTS0201/710030354/1004/SPORTS

In other news:

Jeff Jennings for Vanderbilt is also likely returning this week.

http://www.tennessean.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071005/SPORTS0602/710050389/1036/RSS020602
 
yeah. I don't care why, but really...he should be beat up for doing that. as should anyone.

and

I figured I might as well give the ML a whirl....+3500 strikes me as light, but I'll put a smidge on it. 12.5% of a unit on it.
 
hey, I even like some of yours that I don't have...let's definitely get a bunch...it'd be a nice change of pace for me.

:)
 
thanks sharky.

I already have EMU +30.5

at halftime, it's

EMU 8
UM 16

So I'm taking Michigan 2H -14 (-105)
 
I cannot express how angry I am about the 3 Unit OSU ML i had against A&M. I didnt know there was a coach worse than fran. I hate fran and he gets so lucky all the time.
 
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