CFB ML Dogs week 6

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 9-22, 29%, +2.26 units
Spreads: 24-18-1, 57.1%, +5.5 units

Incredible week for big dogs. I won't belabor it much, but I count 13 that won outright, and several more missed the win by a smidge. I'm just irritated I missed so many. Conference games are continuing in earnest, and I see several I like the looks of based on the spread.

lookout list is as follows:

Marshall - I gotta favor my bigotry, but there should be no value.
Kentucky - Andre is a stud
Utah - might come off quick
Temple ...oh god not again...
Cincinnati - wish it was higher. I think perhaps reality strikes the bearcats here.
Wisky - wrong team favored? still serious questions on defense
Duke - almost won AT WF last year...playing damn well this year...
Vanderbilt - God is on their side, and Auburn is subpar this year...and in a letdown spot after knocking off Florida
Buffalo - oh god not again...
TCU - there's a lot of this questionable favorites this week...
Oklahomo St - been lookin forward to fading the aggies again...
VPI - as large chalk, they suck. As a dog.......I dig some value here.
Iowa - not sure how PSU is a TD fave...AGAIN....
UGA - tenny isn't that good this year. UGA is.
Fresno St - strong feeling that last week's shit performance against LT is due to looking at this one...and really, Fresno is better. Reno escaped against UNLV...damn them.
Houston - as much as Houston doesn't play defense, the dirty little secret about Bama is that they don't play it much more than Houston or Wisky...
Akron - WMU is a step down from UConn...and they're really not very good. Akron might just be better, and at 4:1ish, it's more than worth a shot (again) to see if Akron can be better on Saturday
Maryland - are you fucking kidding me? This is clemson from last week except the terps can score 4 TDs where GT only scored 13...
ISUvsTT over. Perhaps a repeat of okie st and TT with *less* defense...?
East Carolina - gotta look into UCF. They beat nc state, but who the hell hasn't? (wofford isn't somebody)
Notre Dame - I think they will lose, but for enough value, perhaps 12:1...I may play them. as long as clausen doesn't play.
UNLV - I'm irritated by the loss to reno, but I think LV can compete with the falcons. I want at least 2:1 here.
North Texas - They'll have to play some defense this week, but it's a legitimately winnable game...especially if they put up 600 yards of offense this week. ULM isn't exactly the top of the league either.




spread:
Arky St - I'm enjoying this ride. I can imagine them undefeated in SBC play...and covering every damned time.
Ball St -whatever
Oklahoma -single digits
tOSU -6.5 or better
Tulsa
Troy is damn high, but they should stomp FLINT...a lot.

there are some games out there that are jokes too.
UVA @ MTSU...
Utah St @ Hawaii (Brennan, throw less INTs this week)...
Stanford @ Southern Cal...
NMSU @ Boise St - the aggies better play better than they did against arkansas pine-fucking-bluff....

ML Plays
Marshall +130 - L
Wisconsin +125
Kentucky +160 - L
Temple +160
Duke +290
Fresno St +150
North Texas +300
UNLV +205
Iowa +310
Virginia Tech +205
Cincinnati +152
TCU +140
Vanderbilt +310
Oklahoma St +220
Akron +300

Spreads
Kentucky +6.5 (-128) - L
Arkansas St -2.5 (-105)
Rice/Southern Miss Under 54.5 (-106) - L
Tulsa -3 (-105)
E. Michigan +30.5 (-110)
Michigan 2H -14 (-105)
 
Not sure how much outside input you want in your thread here REDBEARDE. but here is the quick list of ml dogs that came to my mind after openers. Feel free to delete this post if you want.

Virginia Tech -- why not , they are pretty good.
Idaho -- they are pretty bad , but so is sjsu
Georgia -- better team
ULM -- sunbelt game, at home , not bad vs the run.
N Texas -- ULL could lose to anyone on a given day
Buffalo -- Ohio down a bit from a year ago. Buffalo up a bit from year ago
UNLV -- tough conference game , good defense gives rebs a shot
TCU -- First team to 2 wins ? that defense always gives a chance
Fresno st -- were obviously looking ahead to this game and nevada fresh off a rivalry win
Tulane -- come on , it's army. maybe they wont return a hundred kicks for a td this week.
Purdue-- home dog with talent. can they stop buckeye run attack ?
Maryland -- sure.
Not sure how many of these willhave value when the lines come out but I think they are all live to win outright. gl this week RED, appreciate this thread every week.
 
Red a little info about the pack...


Since 2000, Pack underdogs by 9.5 or more:
@Clemson (2000) - +19 -- Outcome: Clemson 34 NC State 27 -- COVER
@Georgia Tech (2001) - + 12 -- Outcome: Georgia Tech 27 NC State 17 -- COVER
@FSU (2001) - + 18.5 -- Outcome: NC State 34 Florida State 28 -- COVER (WIN)
@FSU (2003) - + 14 -- Outcome: Florida State 50 NC State 44 -- COVER
@Ohio State (2003) - + 9.5 -- Outcome: Ohio State 44 NC State 38 -- COVER
@FSU (2005) - + 11.5 -- Outcome: NC State 20 Florida State 15 -- COVER (WIN)
@ Clemson (2006) - + 18.5 -- Outcome: Clemson 20 NC State 14 -- COVER
FSU (2006) - + 9.5 -- Outcome: NC State 24 Florida State 20 -- COVER (WIN)
@ BC (2007) - +13.5 -- Outcome: Boston College 37 NC State 20 -- LOSS

NC State 8-1 with 3 straight-up wins as double-digit dogs since 2000.

Yes I know we are not good at all..Just thought it was interesting...I think we see de as qb this week
 
Wolfpack...yeah.......I can see that...........but do you really want to bet money on the wolfpack this year? They gave up 2 picks and 3 fumbles recovered to what could be the worst defense in Div 1A.

JimmyHoffa, Orange&White, glad to know I'm not the only one confused with the UGA line...and that UVA line is bizarre, too.

first off,

Marshall @ Memphis

Normally I would bet Marshall in this game, but with the added death of a 3rd string linemen, that might just give Memphis the desire to actually win a game. So I'll be laying off.

Rice @ Southern Miss

I'm really a big fan of fading Rice this year...just can't bet that team of shit at any price. Even at 1250, it just ain't worth it.

Kentucky @ South Carolina

Kentucky +143...I'd really like a bit more than this. Since most of my books don't have the MLs released yet, I'm thinking I'm better off waiting to see about 160 or 165 before I bite here. Kentucky may well get their first loss here, but with LSU and FL coming up, they really need to win this one to keep from crumbling into a 3 loss in a row stretch. In any event, it's more than a winnable game for em, and I'm thinking in terms of a 40-45% chance of a wildcat win.

Utah @ Louisville

Utah +450. That line is a joke. I can't consider this for less than 6:1.

Northern Illinois @ Temple

Temple +150. This is something to consider as NIU's only win comes in a hard-fought win over Idaho...Temple will have to get out of their own way, though. It's bad when your own RG sacks you...but one big difference against NIU that the OWLS will have this time is that there won't be as great a return man as Jeremy Trimble is for Army...losing to Southern Illinois and a profoundly struggling Chips team isn't much of a vote of confidence... Still, this is the sort of game I want 2:1 for...not sure I want to give myself heartburn pulling for Temple again this week.
 
Wolfpack...yeah.......I can see that...........but do you really want to bet money on the wolfpack this year? They gave up 2 picks and 3 fumbles recovered to what could be the worst defense in Div 1A.
Yea, I think NCSU is the worst defense in div1a, but yes they are bad..I wasnt advocating a bet on the wolfpack...just giving a couple stuff people might find interesting....

Evans will be the starter...Over/under on how many times he crawls into the fetal position to avoid a sack
 
redbearde said:
Northern Illinois @ Temple

Temple +150. This is something to consider as NIU's only win comes in a hard-fought win over Idaho...Temple will have to get out of their own way, though. It's bad when your own RG sacks you...but one big difference against NIU that the OWLS will have this time is that there won't be as great a return man as Jeremy Trimble is for Army...losing to Southern Illinois and a profoundly struggling Chips team isn't much of a vote of confidence... Still, this is the sort of game I want 2:1 for...not sure I want to give myself heartburn pulling for Temple again this week.
Click to expand...

Was hoping to get more against Temple this week, but it wasn't to be. I have actually watched two N Illinois games this season. First of all, they were lucky to beat Idaho as the Vandals gained 200 more yards and turned it over five times. N. Ill had 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns.

I watched them against EMU and they were atrocious for pretty much the entire game.

Against CMU, they blew two early chances inside the five yard line and ended up getting zero points. They seemed demoralized from that point and CMU then dominated.

One thing that was a constant in the games I watched was that NIU's D-line just gets blown off the ball. Lefevour had all day and they had huge holes when they decided to run the ball. The offensive line was not bad, and RB Justin Anderson can play. He had his way in the 1st half on the CMU game (besides fumbling inside the 5). QB Nicholson needs all day to throw the ball. Slow release and doesn't process things quickly enough.

Just some observations from the NIU games I have watched. :cheers:
 
redbearde said:
East Carolina - gotta look into UCF. They beat nc state, but who the hell hasn't? (wofford isn't somebody)

North Texas - They'll have to play some defense this week, but it's a legitimately winnable game...especially if they put up 600 yards of offense this week. ULM isn't exactly the top of the league either.
Click to expand...

UCF has a potentially significant injury...Kevin Smith has a groin and is flat out overworked. His backup has a fumbling problem. If Smith isn't 100%, ECU is a nice dog albeit a slim one. Lucky to get +140 here but still a good spot.

North Texas is playing the Rajin Cajuns not Monroe but I like it still. North Texas is 7-0 ATS since 2000 against ULL. I am not much of a trend player but that is a significant one. I think North Texas can run the ball here and they can win on the orad in this series. At 2:1 it has some value. Just remember North Texas defense is not good.
 
hmmm...I know NT is playing ULL. Somehow I thought NT had already played ULM and put up 600 yards of offense - alas. silly me. in any event, U La La is the ass of this league.

Without Kevin Smith, UCF will have a tough time...you really think he'll be out?

Dmoney, thanks man. this Temple team could win this game, but they could have won against army, too.

Wolfpack17, I'm think that number should be about 9, and I'll take the over.
 
Cincinnati @ Rutgers

damnit. I want more for this one. Unfortunately, I think the line is about right. Too bad Rutgers had to lose last week. Maybe Bob will take Rutgers and make some value for me...

Wisconsin @ Illinois - I need to decide if I think Wisky can stop Juice's running this week. If so, then I'll be all over the badgers. It's tough to get interested in laying chalk with illinois.....that's for sure.

Minnesota @ Indiana - I'll be interested in bjorks's comments about this one, but I can see a closer game that Indiana wins. I don't know if I can back Minny, but that seems to me to be the side here - I don't think Indiana should be favored by 2TDs to much of anyone...

Northwestern @ Michigan St - if this was last year, then I might think the Sparty meltdown had just started, but with Dantonio I don't think that's going to happen...at least not here. MSU wins.

Miami @ UNC - not sure why this isn't higher, but I just can't se the U losing this one. May be a GREAT game to fade the U next year...

Wake Forest @ Duke - Duke's been competitive, and they damn near won this game last year, but I'm not sure I can get too excited until the number gets a bit higher. I was thinking more like 275 than 250...I may well be on this one, but 2.5 seems a tad not enough...

Central Michigan @ Ball St - don't get too excited about CMU's win last week. They're still bad. Ball St can apparently move the ball on anyone not named Miami, and I may well be on the chalk on this one.

Vandy @ Auburn - terrible spot for Auburn...lots of value in +270....I'll probly play it.

Bowling Green @ Boston College - not a chance.

Ohio @ Buffalo - which is the better team again? 200 already? ....hmm....maybe I will give myself some more heartburn this weekend.

Tulane @ Army - really not into a fade of army this week, but Army isn't nearly as good as their win over temple makes them look. ...did I really just type that?

EMU @ Mike Hart - yeah...right.

TCU @ Wyoming - why is wyoming favored here...?

Oklahoma St @ Texas A&M - I will be delighted to fade the aggies again. This time, the competent OkieSt offense should have a field day through the air...w00t...220 is damned cheap tho...

UAB @ Mississippi St - gotta give ths one some thought. Might be able to pick up at 8 or 900 in the next few days.

Miami, OH @ Kent Kent should roll. So I should take a strong look at Miami...
 
Kevin Smith @ UCF

He was pulled out in the 4th quarter and didn't return. He had two injuries a stinger and strained groin. They are going to reevaluate today at praqctice. I can't see him missing the game but the reduced workload could still be a factor.

Didn't realize but they also have USF on deck...which is now an ESPN game. Potential look ahead spot for the kids.
 
Kansas @ Kansas St - Kansas hasn't really played anyone yet, but between KSU's letdown spot here and the rivalry...I love the dog in rivalries, and here we have another at 150ish...should be able to get a smidge higher.

Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi - eff if I know.

Colorado @ Baylor - Colorado is also in another great letdown spot, but they'll have to let themselves go down an awful long way...

Virginia Tech @ Clemson - One would think Clemson would get their shit together after blowing it at GT, but VPI as a dog that might yield me over 2.5:1...that's something I can't pass up...especially with how much trouble Clemson had against GT.

Oklahoma @ Texas, not surprisingly, this line is rising. I expect Oklahoma to bounce back in a big way...I'll probably take this chalk at some point this week...

Nebraska @ Missouri, rather than take a side here, I think Nebraska's porous defense will give Mizzou as many points as they did Ball St....at least. And Missouri doesn't exactly have the bodies to stop the Nebraska run game either...over strikes me as the proper option here. Not sure the number can be high enough...

Iowa @ Penn St - I will be betting against Morelli this week. Happily, I might just squeeze 3:1 out of this shit...I'm not sure how Iowa will score, but I'm pretty sure PSU will have a tough time doing so...

NCSU @ FSU - for the last few years, this has been a SU ML winner. That stops this year. DO NOT bet ncsu on the ML. You can reasonably bet the spread, I guess, but I wouldn't do it.

Georgia @ Tennessee - This line is odd. I figured at best it would be UGA -3....but UGA as a dog? I don't understand that at all...

Fresno St @ Nevada - I'm thinkin the wrong team is favored here. Course, I thought FSU was a lot better last time they were in Reno, too. And the wolfpack beat them outright...damn near busting my 21pt teaser. I'll never forget that game...the kid intentionally slid at the 1 yard line instead of running up the score. Nevada was a big dog that day...like 15 points. anyway...I already have an offer up for fresno, so if you like Nevada ML, go get it.

Houston @ Bama - 380 is ass. fuck that shit. Bama has some trouble on defense, but Houston ought to be well over 4:1 at +11...damnit. no value there. ...especially with Houston's turnovers and missed FGs. Houston is a great fade as a large fave to a mediocre team.

Idaho @ SJSU - not being able to score on Stanford isn't a good sign for SJSU, but Idaho benefited from 5 Colt Brennan INTs(heisman my ass) last week...not sure what to make of a shit game like this. Idaho did lose one to NIU even though they outgained em by almost 2:1 yards (not a good sign). Idaho at 230 right now...that might be worthwhile.

SDSU @ Colorado St - CSU finally gets a win here. SDSU was comical in the loss to cinci...I was seriously laughing my ass off a couple times...

Arizona @ Oregon St - I don't bet on Tuitama. the Beavers should get a win here...

Stanford @ Southern Cal - 'scuse me while I guffaw...

Akron @ Western Michigan - WMU dominated Toledo last week. good for them. Toledo sucks ass. WMU perhaps should be favored...not not by quite this much...
 
redbearde said:
Akron @ Western Michigan - WMU dominated Toledo last week. good for them. Toledo sucks ass. WMU perhaps should be favored...not not by quite this much...
Click to expand...

Power ratings spread this game at -2.5ish yet the line goes opens at -10?? Can't find any Akron injury info...anybody have anything? 7.5 is a large gap between where the computers set the line and where it actually opens.
 
Georgia Tech @ Maryland - no value for me...and in any case, I think the line is about right.

Iowa St @anyone - no.

Central FL @ East Carolina - thanks for the injury update 3wiggler. UCF does tend to lean on Kevin Smith...against NCSU he had 217 rushing yards and 2 TDs. They had 206 total on the ground. figure that out. Against Texas, Smith had 149 yards at 5.5ypc and 2TDs. Against memphis, he had 124 yards at 5.6ypc and 3TDs. Without this kid, UCF loses a TON of production...gotta keep an eye out for this injury. If he doesn't go, then ECU will have a DAMNED good chance at a win. If he does go, then I'm not sure 150 is worth it...2:1 would be better.

Florida @ LSU - oh, I think not. Should be a good game. If it gets up to 3.5:1 or so, maybe I'll re-evaluate...but I really think LSU wins this one...

Ohio St @ Purdue - should be an entertaining game, but I'm bading the fuckeyes yet...there's still bowl season you see...

Notre Dame @ UCLA - the question in my mind is the QB situation in south bend. If the freshman tard of 07 is playing again, then forget it, but if Sharpley plays, then this is a winnable game. Getting the run-game going would be a nice thing too....though no one's really done that well against the Bruins...but....Consider for a moment, Notre Dame actually outgained Purdue 426-371...getting 5.5ypp vs 4.7ypp. And at any rate, 5dimes has already offered up 1250, and it's not beyond the scope of reason to think I could get +1500...and at that number, I really have to consider giving the Irish a try.

UNLV @ Air Force Vegas is +200 against the falcons. AFA couldn't stop Navy's run offense. Can they stop UNLV's pass attack? The badgers pretty much couldn't...course they won. Reno didn't stop the pass much either...though LV couldn't stop Reno's pass attack either... 2:1 strikes me as more than fair. LV even ran for over 200 yards against Reno...too bad they fucking LOST...damnit.

Tulsa @ UTEP - I'm not fading Tulsa for just 35 cents...what an ass line. Course, unless Tulsa steps up to actually playing defense, that might be about right...It sure does seem awfully short, tho...

Arizona St @ Washington St - waiting on Bjorks's thread. offhand, 3:1 doesn't seem like enough to fade ASU straight up.

Utah St @ Hawaii - absurd.

South Florida @ Florida Atlantic - anyone think the Bulls are in for a let down..? I'm not sure 10:1 would be worth it here, and there's no way I'll get that...

Arkansas St @ UL Monroe - not sure why this number went down...I like Arkie St here. So no chance I'm playing Monroe this week.

North Texas @ ULaLa - both teams are without a win. NT has had a powerful passing attack. ULaLa gives up a bunch on the ground AND the air, and the only managed 156 yards on 46 carries to McNeese St...not that McNeese is bad...just...well....NT has a legitimate shot at winning this game, and getting 3:1 would be quite nice...not sure I will, tho.

Troy @ Fl Int - not a chance will I touch this one...Troy should brutalize this bunch.

UVA @ MTSU - I already have something of a UVA ticket...I'll probably have a full play on the Cavs here. I'm not playing MTSU.

NMSU @ Boise St - not again. Not fading them on the Blue. Not fading them on national TV. fuck the aggies.
 
3wiggler said:
Power ratings spread this game at -2.5ish yet the line goes opens at -10?? Can't find any Akron injury info...anybody have anything? 7.5 is a large gap between where the computers set the line and where it actually opens.
Click to expand...

maybe different folks have different power rankings...?
 
here's where I am thus far...if I have to get some of these somewhere other than MB, then the number will undoubtedly be worse.

Akron at Western Michigan Money Line Akron +410
Fresno State at Nevada Money Line Fresno State +166
Georgia at Tennessee U Money Line Georgia +135
Iowa at Penn State Money Line Iowa +330
Kentucky at South Carolina Money Line Kentucky +160
No Illinois at Temple Money Line Temple +162
North Texas at UL Lafayette Money Line North Texas +300
Ohio at Buffalo U Money Line Buffalo U +230
Oklahoma State at Texas AM Money Line Oklahoma State +256
TCU at Wyoming Money Line TCU +170
UNLV at Air Force Money Line UNLV +230
Vanderbilt at Auburn Money Line Vanderbilt +310
Virginia Tech at Clemson Money Line Virginia Tech +275
Wake Forest at Duke Money Line Duke +290
Wisconsin at Illinois Money Line Wisconsin +162
 
the only line I'm seeing anywhere is West Virginia +3 at Syracuse.

I put up an offer for WVU ML at +145 for me at MB....somehow, I think I won't get that one matched...HAHAHAHAAHAa....
 
Question:

Red, what do you think the FSU line does throughout the week. I want to take the Noles already, but what are your thoughts for it increasing/decreasing as the week goes on? Should I wait on Dr. Bob?
 
JimmyHoffa said:
Question:

Red, what do you think the FSU line does throughout the week. I want to take the Noles already, but what are your thoughts for it increasing/decreasing as the week goes on? Should I wait on Dr. Bob?
Click to expand...

i think folks will look at history and take the NCSU points. It's been dropping already, and I think it's a foolish thing to do. I think it's best to let the line drop and take FSU under 17.

But I'm not going to bet that shitfest at all.

:shake:
 
I pulled my wisky offer. I doubt seriously that I'd get the number I want matched, and I don't want to play it for less - I could get 130 now, but fuggit. So the badgers are off my list for now. Someone took part of my Kentucky wager though...that was nice to see.
 
redbearde,

agree with your thoughts on Iowa and Duke...North Carolina, Baylor, Florida might be worth looks as well...
 
Good stuff as usual red.
I'm liking KY, Fresno, Baylor (again this week dammit!), Washington St, UNT.
The rest of my possibilities but still need to dig deeper:
Wisconsin, UNC, Buffalo, Tulane, Ok St, Miami OH, Kansas, VTech, Texas, Nebraska, Georgia, Akron, Maryland, ECU, UL-Monroe.
:shake:
 
redbearde said:
UNLV at Air Force Money Line UNLV +230
Click to expand...

Nice value for UNLV here. They give run-oriented teams fits. I don't think Air Force can throw it reliably enought to take advantage of the secondary. I just wonder how UNLV will fair on the road...either way it appears to be a good price
 
GAH.

okay....so many unknowns........problem is Memphis is in SUCH a horrible state.

I can get +130, and I think it's worth it.

SO FUCK FUCK FUCK. I'm playing this shit game.

Marshall +130
 
ESPN2 just reported that Clausen will start if he's healthy enough.

there goes any idea I had about a play on ND........

FUCK.

angry11.gif
 
I received this PM, and I thought I might as well answer it here instead of keeping it private.

What is a smart amount for moneyline plays??? If I normally play 1 unit on a spread pick, is it a good idea to play a smaller amount on the ML pick or the same? How do you play it?
Click to expand...

I play a lot of MLs. So I play a ML unit for essentially the same as a spread unit. This year it's actually 80% of a spread unit, but those numbers have more to do with my total bankroll rather than anything to do with each other. I think any given wager should be less than 5% of bankroll....2.5% is better, but different people have different thresholds for risk.

In terms of a spread player who likes the chances for a dog to win SU, I think a good style is risk 20 to 40% of your usual wager on the ML as well as your spread wager. So if you bet $1050 to win $1000 on Kentucky +3.5, then you could also wager Kentucky +150 for 200 to 400. Again, it depends on how much risk you want to take on.

I personally don't do that on many. I *DID* do it for Fresno St at Texas A&M, but I thought that would be a very close game...and I did it for Hawaii at Boise St last year, but these were games that I really did think would be a tossup with the last possession determining the winner...and that was pretty much the case.

I don't like doing it on short numbers like the game last night or Kentucky tomorrow night. The difference between losing both and winning both is pretty much the same on those games, whereas the difference between losing Fresno St ML and losing Fresno St +18 was rather vast....

So I only played the ML on Marshall last night.

So the question of how much should one play on the ML is more a question for one's own bankroll...if your usual play is 100$, then either play a crapload of MLs at 100$, or play the ML occasionally for 20 to 40 a pop.

:shake:
 
Come on Red. You know you are itching to take the Rice ML tonight. I bet they don't have three garbage cans on their team. :36_11_6:
 
If only Rice did have three garbage cans they could put in on defense.

I've been giving thought to playing southern miss, actually.

But this is not a game I would consider playing the ML dog with...this offense has a serious problem scoring...
 
Rice/Southern Miss Under 54.5 (-106)

Here's the thing. last week notwithstanding, Southern Miss plays defense. Young is also out with a high ankle sprain, and Reaves doesn't scramble like Young can...he can pass short drops and quick outs, but he hasn't been consistent with them yet. And he won't run around much.

I don't figure either team will break their TT. In fact, I rather doubt Smiss lets Rice get out of single digits, and without Young some of the more difficult defensive looks will be gone - the option won't be quite as effective, and there won't be any Young scrambles for 10 to 15 yards to get a FD conversion - so I'm thinking Southern Miss will be in the 20s.

What would kill this bet is an overabundance of stupid turnovers leading to immediate points. Otherwise, between offensive ineptitude and defensive stops, this score should be rather low.

or I could be completely wrong.

:shake:
 
I agree with your under play tonight. I posted a slight lean to the under in another thread. I believe there 3rd string QB is playing though.
 
Covers article

Quarterback conundrum
There is one big question surrounding the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (2-2) meeting with the Rice Owls (0-4): Who will be the Golden Eagles’ starting quarterback?
Senior QB Jeremy Young suffered a high ankle sprain in Saturday’s 38-16 loss to Boise State and backup Stephen Reaves left Sunday’s practice with a strained oblique.
"He pulled a muscle in his abdomen," said Southern Miss coach Jeff Bower. "I don't know what this means for Wednesday. It is going to be a game-time decision. He has not practiced today or yesterday.”
Golden Eagles’ red-shirt freshman Martevious Young could start at quarterback if backup Reaves is not healthy by Wednesday. Young should challenge Reaves for more playing time this season.
"When I get under those lights I might be a little nervous, but I think that will pass pretty quickly," Young said.
Rice opens C-USA schedule
The Rice Owls have lost four straight games this season, including Saturday’s 58-14 loss to the 19th-ranked Texas Longhorns.
Could there be light at the end of the tunnel for the Rice Owls?
The Owls open their third year of Conference USA competition on a six-game conference winning streak. Rice had lost nine of its first 10 games against C-USA competition before finishing last season with six consecutive wins, including three straight road wins.
Rice is 7-9 all-time in league play, including a 3-5 record in conference road games. This will be the first meeting between Rice and Southern Miss.
Home sweet home
The Golden Eagles return home for the first time in a month when they meet Rice at M.M. Roberts Stadium on Wednesday.
Southern Mississippi was 5-1 as the host last season. They will be looking to home-field advantage to help make up for last week's disappointing road loss to Boise State.
"We have played four games and we haven't played a good game yet," Golden Eagles’ coach Bower said. "We have not played a complete game and that's what gives me the red butt."
The Rice Owls are 0-2 on the road this season with a 34 ½-point average margin of defeat.
Owls in no rush this season
It’s evident that the Owls aren’t going to pound the Golden Eagles into submission with their ground attack.
Rice ranks 152nd in the nation with under 80 yards rushing per game. Sophomore starting running back C.J. Ugokwe is averaging a meager 53.3 yards per contest this season.
Not surprisingly, Rice’s inability to move the ball on the ground was on display last Saturday in a 58-14 loss to the Texas Longhorns. The Owls rushed for minus-11 yards and gave up five sacks against the Longhorns.
"Texas is absolutely the best, most athletic, biggest, fastest and strongest football team we are going to play this year," Rice's first-year head coach David Bailiff said.
The Owls may not have to deal with the Longhorns this week, but they will be facing another strong rush defense. Southern Miss ranks 70th in the nation with 140.2 rushing yards allowed per game.
The Southern Miss defense held Boise State’s 40th-ranked rush offense under its 198.5-yard season average in a 38-16 loss last Thursday.

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RED ALRET!!!
USM may start QB Martevious Young against Rice Wednesday
By Tim Doherty
tdoherty@clarionledger.com


HATTIESBURG — Southern Miss may be starting a quarterback named Young Wednesday night when Rice comes to visit Wednesday night for a Conference USA game.
His first name, though, won't be Jeremy.

Probably.

Injuries to USM's top two quarterbacks, starter Jeremy Young (high ankle sprained) and back-up Stephen Reaves (strained oblique muscle) have put the ball in the hands of redshirt freshman Martevious Young, whose on-field experience consists of the last four snaps in the season opener.

Jeremy Young was hurt in USM's 38-16 loss at Boise State Thursday. Reaves, who was expected to make his first career start at USM, strained his right side during Sunday's practice.

Martevious Young took all the snaps with the first unit Monday, and USM coach Jeff Bower said he likely would get the nod against the Owls (0-4, 0-0 C-USA) for the Golden Eagles (2-2, 1-0).

"Don't know," Bower said. We'll have to see. (Reaves) didn't practice (Monday) and he did it early in practice (Sunday).

"I'd say right now, we'd start Martevious."
 
Wisconsin +125

Maybe I'm delusional, but I think Wisky should be favored here. They may have trouble stopping Juice, but if Illinois tries to pass the ball at all, Wisky should get some stops.

And Illinois won't stop PJ Hill. at all.

:shake:
 
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