CFB ML dogs Week 4

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 4-11, 26.6%, +1.45 units
Spreads: 12-13, 48%, -1 units

Since I see no lines as of yet, best I can do is start with some brief reflections on the matchups I see that look like they have some potential.

week 4 ML dog lookout list

Miami, FL at home to TAMU
Illinois/Indiana dog
Air Farce at BYU
Maryland @ Wake Forest
Alabama/Georgia dog...?
Kentucky/Arkansas dog?
New Mexico St @ Auburn gotta look at Auburn pass D and NMSU on this much road historically
Arky St @ Tennessee
FAU/N Texas - is NT worth a play? can FAU stop the pass?
Iowa @ Wisky - B10 is shit this year. gotta consider - also, was Iowa looking past ISU to this one?
USU/SJSU dog - someone has to win, right?
Washington @ UCLA - ucla bounce back? doubt it.

Penn St crushes Michigan
Texas Tech chalk at Oklahoma ST
Troy chalk?
Cinci chalk - rivalry game(history)? check line strengths - cinci definitely has speed and edge at QB
Texas chalk hosting Rice - too much chalk? bother with it?
LSU light on chalk? Under?
TCU shouldn't lose again this week...
Purdue to crush minny. If purdue a dog (ha!), will pound.
Oregon @ Stanford - should be a terrible slaughter gotta look at S defense.
Utah @ UNLV - letdown? check Utah chalk...not sure what this deal is.

Charleston Southern at Hawaii. Is this a joke? Why even schedule this game? Why not play Hawaii HS all stars?


Depending on actual numbers, a few more could appear based on sheer asshigh value...
 
Texas A&M @ Miami FL

Well, I did think it was too silly to think I might get a U dog here. Since this is a dog thread, I guess I'll discuss this one. TAMU has perhaps the strongest power rushing game in the cfb. If not the strongest, then they certainly have one of the best. Their problem is on defense. Against Fresno St, the bulldogs ran left on Aggie about 20 times during the OTs, and Aggie couldn't stop them (though, overall, A&M kept Fresno St to 139 yards on 2.9 ypc). Even Louie Monroe ran on them 44 times for 215 yards (4.9ypc). The problem for ULM, of course, was giving up 310 yards at 7.4 ypc...and Fresno St's problem was a stupid fucking receiver in OT2...cus Fresno was passing on TAMU at will...

Miami hasn't looked good at all this year, though admittedly Oklahoma is a helluva lot better than Fresno St, the U managed a whopping 139 yards of total offense. Interestingly, Miami DID hole Oklahoma's run game to 116 yards on 45 carries for 2.6 ypc.

If Miami can stop the run on 1st and/or 2nd down, then TAMU won't be able to set up the automatic 3rd down conversion with the M1 Javorski tank...and if the U's QB, whoever it may be, can manage to throw in the general direction of his own receiver, I just can't see how Aggie pulls off a win here. In any case, I don't think there's a whole lot of value to be had at A&M +3.
 
Oklahoma @ Tulsa

This should be an entertaining game. I watched most of the Tulsa/BYU game, and BYU really couldn't get out of their own way. Penalties and turnovers really hurt them (14 penalties for 138 yards and 4 TOs), and Tulsa looked damned good. I don't have any delusion that Tulsa will actually win this game, but I do think they'll score a bit. ...perhaps even quite a bit. I just think Oklahoma won't make the same mistakes BYU did, and they'll get their 45 to 60 points. My thinking here is that an Over might just be a good play. Obviously, we'll have to wait on a number, but it wouldn't shock me at all to see a 56-31 game here...as I don't think Tulsa will be able to stop Oklahoma at all. And it's not like Oklahoma is going to hold back before the not-so-big game against Colorado(1-2).
 
Syracuse @ Louisville

Anyone want to bet that Louie loses two weeks in a row...? And to Syracuse? Syracuse couldn't even beat anyone at a battered chyk shelter...

Illinois @ Indiana

I really think this should be a pick. If I can get 150, then I'll play Indiana. More, of course, is better. Illinois put up a great show versus Missouri but gave up 20 to the Cuse...is that bad? and Indiana gave up 24 to Akron...but Illinois is no Akron.

For some history,

Illinois 1-15 in their last 16 Big10 openers.
Indiana 1-14 in last fifteen Big10 openers.
The home team has won the last 4 of 5.
Indiana won last year as 8pt dogs AT Illinois (lone exception to previous stat).
Both teams have most of their starters back from last year. In: 9/7 Ill: 9/8
Illinois has lost the last 13 Big10 openers by an average of 19ppg.
Indiana goes to Iowa and Illinois goes to Penn St next week. Both or neither have a look-ahead.

I like this one.

Duke @ Navy

Duke got a win. Good for them. I hope they enjoyed it, because they won't win this one (or likely any more for another 20 games. Even in this NW game they won, they still gave up 506 yards of offense including 138 yards rushing for 4.1ypc. NW had 25 FDs to Duke's 15 FDs. Duke had jack squat rushing, but they did pass it pretty well. I think this might be a function of NW's pass defense more than it is Duke's proficiency...In any event, the Duke pass attack will have to be perfect against the middies, because I expect Navy to have something like 40 FDs, 70+% 3rd down conversions, 300+ yards rushing, and a helluva lot of points.

How duke made a game out of it with UVA, I just don't know...

Baylor @ Buffalo

...........I have no idea what to do with this game. +5 isn't going to get me much value anyway, so it's probably best left alone.

Kent St @ Akron

Akron got more than 69 yards of total offense last week. That's something positive. Kent st beat Delaware St. Even Syracuse might be able to beat Delaware St. Akron gave Indiana a game for about a half, and they did especially well through the air, but they couldn't run or stop the run worth a Syracuse. Indiana rushed for 338 at 6.9 yards per carry! Kent St rushed for 202 vs Iowa St (4ypc), and they gave up 158 (4.1ypc). Against Kentucky, Kent St rushed for 324 (5.5 ypc) and gave up 266 (6.8ypc)...not to mention the flurry of passes for another 200 yards.

A trend to note with the smaller schools, and I'm not just talking about the SunBelt...but Kentucky is going to have a bit more depth than Kent St, so while Kent St and Akron almost made a presentable game out of it in the 1st Half, they really got shelled by larger schools in the second. (Indiana pounding Akron and Kent getting torched for 42 in the 2H - they were tie games in the first half) The point is that there's a great deal of variance with the smaller schools.

speaking of variance...thus far, Kent St likes to cough up 4 TOs per game. ...even against Delaware St.

Akron might be well worth a try at 175ish...I'd prefer to have 2:1, and I might even get it with the perception being that 'obviously' Kent st is better....
 
Army @ Boston College

I think the line is high, but I'm not, so I won't be betting this game.

Miami Oh @ Colorado

I'm not sure what to make of Colorado. Miami Oh has quite the MAC team, I suppose, and I think they can win. But I know not much about Colorado, and watching them play Florida St doesn't do anything for me. Over half the Buffs yards came while FSU was playing prevent in the 4th quarter. And holding them to -27 yards per rush doesn't tell me much......cus I don't think Miami OH will do that. Cinci cruised right through em for 438 yards, and Miami OH coughed up 4 TOs. I rather think it's quite likely the Buffs win this game....and I doubt there'll be enough value in this one for me to get a hard-on.

Ball St @ Nebraska

I had interest in BSU last week against Navy, and I pussied out. I don't have interest in them this week against a much tougher Nebraska squad pissed off about a shameful crushing loss to USC (who put up half a hundo). I wouldn't play the points here either....not for less than 30.

Air Force @ BYU

I wasn't certain there would be value here, but at 9.5 I should almost certainly be able to get significantly over 3:1. Maybe that's value. BYU kept tripping over their dicks in the loss to Tulsa, and they still had a shot at winning SU in the last minute. AFA would have to have a similar game to the TCU game last week for this to happen. In the 4th, everything falls apart and they throw a bunch of passes to AFA and then fail to bother tackling... and....There might be some possibility of that week-after hangover...

hmm...
 
Duke got a win. Good for them. I hope they enjoyed it, because they won't win this one (or likely any more for another 20 games. LMFAO Red great reading,made my night i agree though navy should pound em .I was impressed with middies last week ,anyways just was funny cayght me off gaurd keep up the great write ups!
 
Washington @ UCLA

UCLA gave up 5 TOs last week. Utah even held em to 2.7ypc. Aside from TOs, the game really was quite even. The same is true of Washington (4TOs) hosting tOSU last week...though tOSU did get more rushing yardage.

Honestly, I would like 2:1 on Washington here. If the Huskies can put up 350 yards on the tOSU defense, and Utah puts up 44 on UCLA's defense without their #1 QB and RB, then I think we can likely expect a Pac10 shootout...and in that event I'll only need a couple balls to bounce my way to get the win.

Also, interestingly, the UCLA offense hit a damned wall...the FGs made were 45 and 52 yard FGs....UCLA couldn't do a damned thing...

go look at this one:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272510026

BYU outplayed UCLA in most ways, but TOs and penalties really screwed them up. Not only does this make me think UCLA might just be a TAD over-rated, it makes me think I better consider AFA to win this week, too....
 
moneydog said:
Duke got a win. Good for them. I hope they enjoyed it, because they won't win this one (or likely any more for another 20 games.

LMFAO Red great reading,made my night i agree though navy should pound em .I was impressed with middies last week ,anyways just was funny cayght me off gaurd keep up the great write ups!
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
Georgia @ Alabama

to quote Saban, "we're good in the 2-minute drill"

Too bad they couldn't stop Arkansas thereby making it so they'd BETTER be good at the 2-minute drill. I liked bama at Vandy, but I thought that line against Arky was about perfect...turns out it was. Bama gave up 300 yards rushing at 5.7ypr. Each team gave up 3 TOs. And FDs and even 3rd down conversions were about even. Each team had 7 penalties.

That rushing defense has got to have Saban pissing down his leg, though. UGA got over 4ypc against W Carolina AND South Carolina.

I'm not so sure there's value here at only -3ish...but if it gets up to where I can get over 2:1.....I'd really like 2.5:1...then I'll play it and fade Saban.

UGA is 1-7 in Tuscaloosa. Ever. Richt won the last trip there in 2002 - the score was 27-25. UGA pounded em 37-23 in 2003.
 
Florida @ Ole Miss

Not with my dollars...hey, I have an ass I could wipe with em...if anything, this is a game I might have to consider laying the 3 to 4 TDs...on the road....

of course I won't...just....well.....eh, no.

Northwestern @ Ohio St

+22 might be worthwhile. +4500 on the ML isn't. Hell, +450,000 on the ML isn't. Tressel wins this one. Not sure tOSU bothers to win it with great offensive prejudice....and NW might manage to throw for more points than interceptions in this one...maybe.
 
Red What ya Think of Iowa ML and NC State ML ? I think ncst can keep close if they dont turn the ball over.Plus clemson at GT then VT maybe they look ahead.Also iowa after a bad bad loss.A stretch yes but i see some value here. i like the wash pick ML and i see ur looking into nmst,Ill take points and ML nmst has a pretty good offense and decent d. anyways im out for the night
 
Penn St @ Michigan

I don't buy into the idea that Michigan got better last week. I think we found out just how bad Notre Dame is this year. I think they're threatening to go without a win this year. At any rate, I think Penn St -3 is a great value. Penn St's defense won't let Mike Hart run over them like ND's did. And while Morelli is lousy, his D might score enough points for him anyway. Even if you do want to play Michigan, I don't see how you can justify this 3pts business. I realize JoePa won't run the spread offense (at least I don't expect him too), but Morelli's not an unexperienced snot who's unfamiliar with the offense like Claussen. I'll be on the chalk here. Hope I can get the -3...

Michigan St @ Notre Dame

Here's a hint with the ML. Don't bet on teams that start training camp just before week 4. I already emptied my tiny Bookmaker accont at MSU -13.5. I will be on that chalk with a full unit.

Memphis @ Central Florida

CFU does not suck. Memphis sucks manatee tit - I've loathed their supposed team since DeAngelo left. No play on the dog here. Might play the chalk if I look into it and like it. Note, this is just bigotry against the program on my part - but it's saved me a lot of time and frustration to just write them off until they show competence at something other than sucking off manatees. They just can't win against any sort of program...

GaTech @ UVA

If I was to consider playing UVA, it'd have to be for more than what I'd get at the current line. I'm confused by this team. I don't know how well SewerH^H^H I mean Sewell will do against this front 7...Ryan did great for BC, but UVA ain't no BC....and I still have great respect for the GT defense. Which gives me great respect for BC's offensive execution.

5dimes lines are out, and I have Sparty -13.5.
 
moneydog said:
Red What ya Think of Iowa ML and NC State ML ? I think ncst can keep close if they dont turn the ball over.Plus clemson at GT then VT maybe they look ahead.Also iowa after a bad bad loss.A stretch yes but i see some value here. i like the wash pick ML and i see ur looking into nmst,Ill take points and ML nmst has a pretty good offense and decent d. anyways im out for the night
Click to expand...

I think NCSU will turn the ball over. Early, often, and A Lot. I will not be playing NCSU ML......course I said that vs BC too....but then I had 5:1. tell ya what, at 5:1 I might have to consider playing it. But I think Clemson *can* look beyond NC State and still win the game.

As far as Iowa...I think there's a lot of possibility there. I want a lot to fade Wisky at home, but I think there's the chance that Iowa has been preparing for Wisky for 2 weeks instead of thinking much about ISU last week...

g'night dude.
 
Colorado St @ Houston

Dunno what to do here. I'm thinking Houston very likely wins, but I don't know enough about Colorado St to even be bigoted about em...under Lubick they're 13-3 after a bye week. Not sure that means anything.

Arizona @ California

Not a chance in hell. I love betting -against- Tuitama precisely for what happened in the New Mexico game in week3. That fuck sucks. He can throw a few passes...the dump-off on the wing or the 5 yard pass across the middle, and those might be somewhat accurate. Get beyond that, and it's like shooting with eyes closed. You *might* hit your target, but you better hope the target hops into your line of fire...he also has this great ability to fumble at the goal line so the other team can run it as far back as they can. I wonder if he had UNM on the ML too...?

at any rate, there's not a chance in hell I'd back this team on the ML against Cal. if I get a half point or so lower, I might even lay the chalk. UNM's defense is as soft as a louisville cheerleader's willpower, and Arizona still couldn't get a go-ahead TD. Against Cal? Forget about it.

Also. AZ managed to align the moon and stars to get the win at home last year.... of note might be the pick 6 in the 4th Q...... Cal will get the revenge in a big way this year.

Arizona, btw, has lost 6 straight Pac10 openers.

Northern Illinois @ Idaho

NIU sucks manatee tit, too. I wish there was more value on betting Idaho...
:36_11_6:
 
Temple @ Bowling Green

Before you just dismiss this, remember that Temple actually completed the winning pass against UCONN, and the reviewers simply made the wrong damned call on the play calling him out of bounds. That's right. Temple physically won a game they were 30 pt dogs in.......this after losing at home to Buffalo in an incredible manner...

never mind. I'm not playing Temple.....I just wanted to make anyone reading this think I've lost my mind.

:)

East Carolina @ West Virginia

ECU:boff:Slaton/White/Noel Devine

Iowa St @ Toledo

These two teams are so erratic and inconsistent that at 2:1 I'd have to consider either of them...gotta wait and see what I can get here.

North Carolina @ South Florida

I think the Bulls are a good bit better, but there might be value here to take a young UNC team which, though they're young, they're also quite speedy, and I think they have a chance. Probably won't play. For a stupid high number, maybe I would.

Maryland @ Wake Forest

Very disappointed in this number. I was hoping for something a bit more inflated. I can't fault anyone for making any play on this game. Personally, I think WFU wins it. Not sure they'll even do it by a FG....so I can understand a ML dog play. Probably won't be on it myself.

Clemson @ NCSU

NC State needs to face better than a mediocre defense and perform well before I'll back them again. As I say above, I'm not too keen on the wolfpack's chances much this year. I have a great deal of trouble seeing a scenario wherein NCSU wins this one...I'll be pulling for anyone who takes em on the ML, but I won't be there.

Marshall @ Cincinnati

I want the chalk here. It's a mouthfull though...

Kentucky @ Arkansas

If Kentucky can stop the run occasionally, then this will be a great play. I think they can. And I will likely play Kentucky on the ML. Big danger is a letdown spot after the Louie game, but I think Kentucky has big plans this year...and Louie mighta just been the first step.

But they will have to stop the run from time to time...

New Mexico St @ Auburn

This line is ridiculously high in my mind. I'll be on NMSU. I'm not so sure they'll win, but I'd generally give them a 30-35% chance, and at +17 I should get +1000 or better. And that's definitely worthwhile.

Connecticut @ Pitt

No. Wannstedt managed to lose last week, but he actually got damned near innovative with some of that shit in the 2H....and UCONN lost to Temple (ignore the box-score and final score...they lost).

Wyoming @ Ohio

this line blows. I want more of these that make me have to THINK about taking the game...oh, uh, no.
:down2:

Rice @ Texas

Texas is only a 40pt fave? That's all?
'an_horse'

Washington St @ Southern Cal

So here's the question. Will Wazzou do it this time? They came kinda close last year...Not a play for me, tho.

South Carolina @ LSU

The tigers are frickin scary this year...
'an_horse'

Iowa @ Wisconsin

I hoped for more value than this, but I do think Iowa has a decent shot here. Whether or not I play this one depends on what numbers I see.

San Jose St @ Utah St

How do you assign a favorite here? SJSU is a likely bet. Wonder how much I'll get on the ML...?

Southern Methodist @ Texas Christian

It's the Killa-Bowl! Christians beat each other senseless over an oblong ball made of pig skin! I wouldn't back SMU against anyone. Certainly not TCU. The Frogs should have more picks than SMU has completions...

Purdue @ Minnesota

I'm about half an inch from being on the chalk in this one. Minny is complete ass. I'll be interested in Bjorks's thread this week, tho...
 
Utah @ UNLV

Not sure how anyone could back UNLV on the ML this or any week....

or for that matter...

Oregon @ Stanford

I might hafta play Oregon here, too...I don't see the Quackers punting at all...maybe...oh...I dunno....38-0. BIG blue indeed...

Oregon St @ Arizona St

Again, Bjorks has the scoop. Gotta see what he has to say before I make decisions. Beavers pounded all Holy Hell out of em last year 44-10. Kinda like Patriots hosting the Chargers...

FLint @ Kansas
:36_11_6:

Troy @ ULL

Troy is good. Lafayette is not. A lot. No ML play here for me...a lot.

FAU @ North Texas

I hoped for a bit more out of NT...at any rate, FAU dominated MTSU. NT's rushing game is practically nonexistent, and the passing game is going to have to be great against FAU...I mean, NT managed to lose to SMU....

check this wacky shit:
http://scores.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272512567

The question, ultimately, is can FAU stop NT's passing attack. If they can, then NT's going to lose. Period. If they cannot, note Minny's passing attack:

31-47, 7.1ypa, 335 yards, 4 tds, 4 INTS

minny had 7 TOs...and FAU won 42-39...

at 3.5:1...more is better, then I would have to play this. North Texas is a passing team, though...and the air and FAU's secondary is the issue here.

much to think about in this game.

:cheers:

Arky St @ Tennessee

wouldn't I be popular around here if I took this and it won......heh. ...I don't think it's particularly likely...but I do think they have a shot.
 
ML plays:

Indiana +132
Kentucky +230
Georgia +145
Toledo +160
Washington +235
Oregon St +387.5

spread plays:

Michigan St -13.5
Penn St -3 (-105)
Troy -10.5
Texas A&M/Miami, FL U46.5 (-110) - L
California -13.5
Oregon -17
Oklahoma/Tulsa Over 67 - W
Clemson -6.5
Purdue -14 (+101)

possible MLs:
Air Force
New Mexico St
Iowa
North Texas
Arkansas St

possible spreads
Purdue -less than 2 TDs

no longer considering due to shitless Value:
SJSU, Akron, cinci, Navy
 
Troy -10.5

I was impressed last week. This week, I expect to be amused.

on these, I hate the number, but I doubt it goes anywhere but down

Indiana +132
Kentucky +230
Georgia +145

I guess I'll pretty much have to wait for Dr Bob to fuck up the rest...
 
continuing my trash of the NC State wolfpack...

I think Clemson will really kick the shit out of the wolfpack...I'd say they'll *force* 4 picks and maybe even a fumble, but I rather think Beck will serve them up like he did against Boston College. And we won't see anything close to 5:1 on this one...you're lucky if you already got 3:1, and I don't think that's worth it. NCSU may have a 10-15% chance of winning, I think, and that's best case scenario.
 
I think you may be on to something with Oregon State. Over two weeks for this team to prepare for Arizona State as they played cincinnati on a thursday night and a bad D2 last week. ASU has had to prepare for colorado , sdsu. Also i think erickson used to caoch at oregon state. maybe i am remembering wrong so correct me if i am. I know this much ... the beavers have a defense so i took the points. Colorado had open receivers all night on ASU two weeks back but Hawkins either missed the throws or the receivers dropped the balls. lots and lots of drops. colorado had these open receivers with NO running game and i do mean NO running game. Expect Bernard to have atleast some success vs ASU. Just think it is worth taking a peek at. Also , manatee tit isn't all that bad.... don't knock it until you've tried it.
 
vegaskyle said:
I think you may be on to something with Oregon State. Over two weeks for this team to prepare for Arizona State as they played cincinnati on a thursday night and a bad D2 last week. ASU has had to prepare for colorado , sdsu. Also i think erickson used to caoch at oregon state. maybe i am remembering wrong so correct me if i am. I know this much ... the beavers have a defense so i took the points. Colorado had open receivers all night on ASU two weeks back but Hawkins either missed the throws or the receivers dropped the balls. lots and lots of drops. colorado had these open receivers with NO running game and i do mean NO running game. Expect Bernard to have atleast some success vs ASU. Just think it is worth taking a peek at. Also , manatee tit isn't all that bad.... don't knock it until you've tried it.
Click to expand...

manatee tit:boff:vegaskyle

:seeya:
 
redbearde said:
continuing my trash of the NC State wolfpack...

I think Clemson will really kick the shit out of the wolfpack...I'd say they'll *force* 4 picks and maybe even a fumble, but I rather think Beck will serve them up like he did against Boston College. And we won't see anything close to 5:1 on this one...you're lucky if you already got 3:1, and I don't think that's worth it. NCSU may have a 10-15% chance of winning, I think, and that's best case scenario.
Click to expand...


wow you are pretty optimistic about this game there red....

yes i think this game will be hard to win, but look for us to play better than we did against bc...im thinking that the team got some confidence from last week getting in the win column...

it could be a long day though because i think spiller and davis run all over us...

oh well we will see...would love to get a win as im in a wedding that involves nc state wolfpackers as the bride and groom and that will make the wedding even more fun...doubt it will happen but my boy me and the groomsmen will be drinking at 12 cheering them on
 
Yeah, my optimism abounds. If you see it differently, I'd love to hear why...confidence won't stop the bad throws...

and if Evans is in at QB, I expect we might even see a 6 pack of picks...
 
redbearde said:
Yeah, my optimism abounds. If you see it differently, I'd love to hear why...confidence won't stop the bad throws...

and if Evans is in at QB, I expect we might even see a 6 pack of picks...
Click to expand...


Evans will not see the field unless we are blowing them out (not happening) or beck is injured..that kid is the worst qb i think i have seen post rivers. he is too frail and :seeya:whenever he thinks he might get hit...

yes beck didnt make great decisions in the bc game, but I think he has learned from his throwing off the back foot and we should see an improved game. My game plan against Clemson would be quick outs to Darrell, Dunlap, Bowens, Spencer, Brown etc and let the playmakers touch the ball. Throw across the middle. Get Beck some confidence that move that ball. If we give him some confidence and the d plays well I think we can win this one.
 
love the spread play of PSU. PSU got all it's turnover's out fo the way last weekend against buffalo. I think they will be very conservative in play calling and not allow morelli to lose the game for them. I think they are starting to employ a two back system as the starting back (forget his name is starting to get back into Paterno's dog house with his turnover's as of late).

PSU's linebackers seem like they are moving quicker laterally (anyone else notice). I think they are going to fill holes and it's goin to be tough sleddin all day long for hart. Whoever plays QB is going to have to beat PSU's very tough secondary through the air, which will not be a easy task as they are ranked in the top 5 in defensive passing efficiency, (also ranked in top 5 in every defensive catergory).

GL on this one as i will be watching with PSU fans and rooting like i am one, but deep down i will never be of anything except THE OSU
 
Supersav, I totally agree. The issue for me is where the best value is. Best I can get right now for Washington is +200, and that's awful damned cheap at +6.5...

FrankieGotti, hope you're right. Ultimately, I think PSU will win anyway...after Michigan's falling apart this year (a dismantling of the powerhouse at ND notwithstanding), I don't understand how the line is as short as -3...
 
redbearde- I'll be jining you on Gawga. I just want to wait for another nickel or two (140 at 5Dimes)
You got 230 on UK ?? good work
methinks Ill is better than Ind, but the ML is the play here no matter who is favored.
My advice this week is be wary of undefeated teams. we started the season with 120 and after week one ,it's down to 60+ish. Now is the time that some of those with all wins will feel the choke collar. Over the next few weeks you willll see the number of undefeateds drop radically.And starting now.
I'm not talking about the Ous and the USCs and Im not including the obvious like Tulsa But I am talking about YOU-
Texas A & m
Alabama
Indiana
Michigan State
UConn
Purdue
Arizona st
Clemson
Keep up thre good work,beard guy.
 
Purdue will win this by 24+ unless Tiller takes the foot off the gas.

I fully expect 500 - 600 yards by the Purdue offense, so the punter might as well stay in West Lafayette...the wild card is the Purdue defense. I was a little surprised by the way the Gophers were able to move the ball against FAU. I didn't expect that they'd put up 39. Granted, FAU might have THE WORST SPECIAL TEAMS IN THE UNIVERSE, and gave Minnesota great field position most of the afternoon.

I haven't had time to research Purdue's defensive strengths and weaknesses, but I can't imagine they won't be able to stop Minnesota's offense at least 2-3 times, and that's all you'll need to PUSH or cover...

GL
 
That's a pretty good number, Supersav...I have no money in greek right now...alas. I wonder if I can do a transfer from MB to Greek...why YES! Yes I can. And I have just requested it. We'll see how long this takes.......I loathe that MB takes so fucking long to put up ML dog markets...

and the best number at WSEX is 200. I want this one before DrBob fucks me like a chicken.

RSMS9999 - oh they could do it. But I like my value. Though, at +132, I'm really getting it in the cornhole on this number. But I could see it go nowhere but down, you know?

Wolfpack17 - you are FAR more optimistic about NCSU's chances this week than I am. Hey, Matador agrees with you, so maybe I'm the one who can't see straight. But if you really like em at 40%, then +250 ought to be excellent value for ya...

Bull, I'll definitely keep an eye out for those undefeated teams to be going down like Lewinski...early and often over the next few weeks.

Counselor said:
Purdue will win this by 24+ unless Tiller takes the foot off the gas.
Click to expand...

I would agree....here's my concern, though: Minny, while sucking ass against weaker teams, did manage to make those games tight. I saw in the first half something like 35-7 when Minny visited FAU. And then they camned near came back to win it. I realise I'm comparing FAU to Purdue here, but the relevant question with purdue is the defense. Sure, purdue will probably drop 40 to half a hundo, but will they keep Minny to below 3 TDs...?

Toledo and CMU managed to get into the 20s, and I expect Minny will score a bit too. Purdue's D is allowing almsot 350 yards per game...against the powerhouses of Toledo and...well....I still think CMU has some quality in the offense, but still.....

Seems to me equally likely that Purdue wins by 1-3, 10, or 25. Given those 3 parts equally separated, I'd rather not lay 2 TDs....and that's why I haven't even though above I said I was looking for it... I was hoping for under 10. SURPRISE. I didn't get it.

Perhaps dr fucking bob will actually HELP me with a line this week....

I fucking hate dr fucking bob.
 
ClevelandsBest said:
My guess is you will be able to get better lines with all ur ATS plays. Nice thread you have here and good luck
Click to expand...

unfortunately for me, it's definitely looking that way. Alas. Still, I like the numbers, and line movement doesn't change what I think about a wager. I simply didn't get the best of the number, and that I don't like at all.

thanks to you, and GL this week.

Toledo +160

I went ahead and played Toledo. I doubt that one gets much better, though I can't understand anyone playing ISU off the reasoning, "Toledo" sucks. It's like the pot calling the kettle the pot. At any rate, maybe it keeps rising, but I'm content.
 
Redbearde, great thread as usual
I'll be joining you on Toledo, KY and Georgia.

I see there's no chance you play NC State or Minnesota but I will very likely play both myself. It just seems year after year both Clemson and Purdue lay eggs on the road when they're favored.

Also looking at:
Notre Dame: At home this week, this might be the time to play them.
UConn: I know they should have lost to Temple, but 4-1 at Pitt seems like good value.
Iowa: This one is tough because who knows their mental state after losing to ISU, but Wisconsin might be a little overrated.
Oregon St: Definitely the line is inflated because of how they got killed by Cincy, I think they can bounce back.

I can't believe Sun Belt play is starting and we have a +370 and +210 dog and I'm not even considering them. It's hard to go against the 2 Sun Belt teams that just beat BCS schools.

Good luck this week:cheers:
 
macdamn said:
Redbearde, great thread as usual
I'll be joining you on Toledo, KY and Georgia.

I see there's no chance you play NC State or Minnesota but I will very likely play both myself. It just seems year after year both Clemson and Purdue lay eggs on the road when they're favored.
Click to expand...

You are a MUCH braver man than I. While I'm not soo keen on laying the chalk with Purdue......no chance in hell would I play Minny on the ML. Before you play that, I recommend you wait for Bjorks's thread. He knows the program.

[quote[Also looking at:
Notre Dame: At home this week, this might be the time to play them.
[/quote]

They're starting training camp this week. That's not a joke - Weis has apparently blown up the team and starting over. Now's the time...? We don't know who's going to be playing what and where. And I have ZERO faith in ND at this point...I thought they might get it together last week against a befuddled UM team (aside from Hart, ok course), but the very first offensive snap by ND told me otherwise...

UConn: I know they should have lost to Temple, but 4-1 at Pitt seems like good value.
Click to expand...

Normally I would suggest that fading Wanny is a good style, but that kid LeSean McCoy should run right through UCONN all day...good luck with that.

Iowa: This one is tough because who knows their mental state after losing to ISU, but Wisconsin might be a little overrated.
Click to expand...

I want more return for fading Wisky...GL, tho.

Oregon St: Definitely the line is inflated because of how they got killed by Cincy, I think they can bounce back.
Click to expand...

I think so too. But again, I'd wait for Bjorks...

I can't believe Sun Belt play is starting and we have a +370 and +210 dog and I'm not even considering them. It's hard to go against the 2 Sun Belt teams that just beat BCS schools.

Good luck this week:cheers:
Click to expand...

Yes it is. Troy is frickin STOUT....

I got money over to theGreek.

Washington +235

Much has been said about this one, but if Washington can stop the run a few times, then I think the Huskies can score enough to win it.
 
I have a feeling ND will pull this one out. Its on NBC and they are at home.
 
i dont know just a hunch fukk it if they win and i dont bet il be mad but Im more confident with Wash and Tucky
 
Speculation is that it's not just a headache...but a concussion. Lucky for UCLA, Cowan started practicing again YESTERDAY after he tore his hamstring last month.


Link

Olson doesn’t practice

Dorrell says quarterback is suffering from headaches, and it isn’t clear if he will play this week.
By Chris Foster, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
9:27 PM PDT, September 18, 2007
UCLA's problems got a little worse Tuesday, as quarterback Ben Olson did not practice because of "headaches," Coach Karl Dorrell said.

Patrick Cowan was in charge of the first-team offense in his first full practice since returning from a partially torn hamstring. Whether Olson would be ready in time for Saturday's game against Washington is unclear. Olson was not allowed to speak with the media Tuesday and Dorrell was vague about the injury. Olson was battered repeatedly in Saturday's 44-6 loss to Utah.

"Ben has a headache and he's had this headache since Saturday night," Dorrell said.

Asked the headaches were from a concussion, Dorrell said, "That's not what I anticipate it being. But we just want to be smart because we had a rash of concussions lately."

On Sunday, Dorrell said Olson was OK and he did not include him in his injury report during a Monday news conference.

Last week, Dorrell said that linebacker Aaron Whittington was suffering from "nausea," then admitted Sunday that Whittington had suffered a concussion for the second consecutive week in the Utah game.

Olson missed the last eight games of the season in 2007 because of a knee injury. Cowan took over the team and led the Bruins to victories in the last three regular-season games, including USC.

Cowan said little about his chances of starting, other than "I'm preparing to play if needed."

Olson would have to practice by Thursday in order to play, Dorrell said.

"[Ben] feels better today and the doctors wanted him to stay out one more day," Dorrell said. "He feels good, but we'll see how he feels tomorrow."

The Bruins already will be without five starters: wide receiver Marcus Everett (ankle), guard Shannon Tevaga (knee), defensive tackle Brigham Harwell, defensive end Nikola Dragovic and Whittington. Fullback Michael Pitre has yet to play this season, meaning the Bruins could go into Saturday's game without seven of their 20 returning starters from last season.

-----------JIMDASH----------

Everett was on crutches Tuesday and ruled out for Saturday's game, two days after Dorrell said he had a sprained ankle that did not seem severe.

"He doesn't have a lot of swelling, but it's pretty tender," Dorrell said Tuesday.

Everett's injury opens a spot for sophomore Osaar Rasshan, who moved from quarterback to receiver this year.

Rasshan, who has shown the skill to develop into a quality receiver in practice, got into his first game at the end of the Stanford game Sept. 1, but did not catch a pass.

Still, he said, "That takes away the first-game jitters Right now, my focus isn't even on the game. My focus is on going into practice every day, making every catch to try to prove to the coaches I can do it on the field."

-----------JIMDASH----------

Brian Price, cleared by the NCAA on Monday to rejoin the Bruins, went through his first day of practice since Aug. 6 and was expected to get into Saturday's game on a limited basis. The 6-foot-3, 270-pound Price is considered the Bruins' top recruit.

"He's quick and explosive," defensive line coach Todd Howard said. "We can use him this weekend as a pass rusher, then work him in as he gets in better and better shape.

"He is still catching up, but he's a smart kid and we'll have him ready to go this week. We'll have a package for him."

Besides, Howard said using Price in passing situations is easy: "You say, 'Go get the quarterback.'."
Click to expand...
 
Texas A&M/Miami, FL U46.5

dunno what to say about it. I think Miami can stop TAMU's offense, and the aggies are one dimensional. And I dunno how Miami is going to be able to score...Under seems warranted.
 
Like the under RED. Say what you want about Miami but they are a hard team to just line it up and ram it down their throats on. They also struggle to light up the scoreboard on anyone. GL senor Bearde.
 
RSMS9999, I hope you're right. I got a pretty good number I think...


vegaskyle said:
Like the under RED. Say what you want about Miami but they are a hard team to just line it up and ram it down their throats on. They also struggle to light up the scoreboard on anyone. GL senor Bearde.
Click to expand...

Thanks man. That's pretty much how I'm looking at this. I'm thinking 16-9 or so....dunno how realistic thast is, but we'll see.
 
this is why I watch the Dr Bob moves...

he likes Arizona, so I got a good number out of that slimey fuck.

California -13.5

I get another chance to fade Tuitama...I'll fuckin take it.

:)
 
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