CFB ML Dogs Week 2 2007

redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
ML dogs: 1-3, 25% (-1 unit)
Spreads: 4-4, +.97 units

that looks odd because I had 2 units on Iowa - lucky me. I'm pissed I didn't play the NCSU fade. I'm not pissed I played Michigan. These sorts of kooky things are why this isn't easy.

I had an extremely frustrating weekend...mostly because I added 4 plays on their respective gamedays, and I went 1-3 with them...on to Week 2. I'm looking at more ML dogs this week.

Thursday

MTSU @ Louisville - Right out for ML dog consideration. Not sure we'll see another 60+ point line, but if we do...before you bet it, consider that in week 1 when they won 73-10, they -pushed- or didn't depending on the number you got. It's one of those you could play if you're a degenerate and want to hope MTSU sucks as much against em (or worse)...pass for me.
Oregon St @ Cincinnati - The beavers showed me something week 1. I'm really not sure where this line will be - Cinci played well against the local mizzu HS team, but they'll be fuckin with grown up beaver this time. I'm hoping to get some good value in this glorious festival of uncertainty. Cinci has a Wake Forest QB, a new coach and new schemes - OSU doesn't go this far east much. The beavers made a nice accounting for themselves against the Utes, but they busted up the QB and RB. Cinci has incredible stats in game 1, but that was vs the SMSU redhawks......so, so what? I have no idea what to expect here, and if I'm surprised when I see the first number, I'll be on it.

Friday

Navy @ Rutgers - Navy showed me something too...a continued inability to play D. Navy should put up some points on Rutgers, but we're approaching "right out" again for any ML play for the middies. If the total's low enough, I might consider that...because I can see Rutgers blowing through the middies like a dockside whore.

Saturday

West Va @ Marshall - not sure they can make this line large enough. Hell no to ML, and I might play WVA. Love to get it below 3 TDs, but not holding my breath.
Nevada @ Northwestern - This is fuckin interesting dude. If Nevada's the dog here, I might have to play it out of Ault respect.
Bowling Green @ Sparty - Nope.
Miami, OH @ Minnesota - I know it's a bit presumptive to think the same ML dog might win 2 weeks in a row, but I'll have to give some thought here...I'd assume that generic 6.5pt spread and +260ish...
Nebraska @ Wake Forest - Corn fuckers are not on my list of fades anytime soon.
Akron @ Ohio State - well, the Big 10 managed to win *one* cupcake...not considering Akron unless I get a lot more value than I think I will.
Miami, FL @ Oklahomo - Not sure what to do with this. I think there may be some value in a miami dog. Gotta wait for the number, I s'pose.
Grambling St @ Pitt - .....well, Grambling's something to consider. I have *that* much respect for Wannstadt...
Duke @ UVA - Duke looked okay for about a quarter and a half.....and even as bad as the Cavs looked, I just can't back Duke.
Ball St @ EMU - I don't know or care who the dog will be...I'll very likely be betting it.
E. Illinois @ Purdue - another game to ignore....
Alabama @ Vandy - there's going to have to be stupid value here. And even if there is...I'm not sure I'm stupid enough to back vandy here...Saban seems to have those kids playing well.
Barfalo @ Temple - Temple is better this year. Not good. But better. Last year's futility bowl was fun to follow....perhaps I'll get to back the other losing side...
UL Monroe @ Clemson - Very Likely Not.
Rhode Island @ Army - Not sure I care. Army couldn't move the ball reliably. RI might beat em.
Samford @ Ga Tech - Before you bet the Jackets, do remember that fellow doesn't run up the scores. He didn't really even have his kids on O trying against ND in the 4th. The defense will put on another show, though, I'm sure.
California @ Colorado St - I'm not sure what I'd need to get for CSU to bother fading cal with em, but I doubt I'll get it.
Utah St @ Wyoming - I may well have a wyoming ticket for this one. USU really fell apart heading into halftime, and I saw nothing in the 2H that indicates they might come out of it.
NCSU @ Boston College - BC will win. When you are beaten by NCSU last year, you won't let that shit happen twice without killing yourself. No way does Obrien get those kids motivated to win at his Alma Mater. Don't expect a holdover from them beating Amato's....
Oregon @ Michigan - I WANT SOME DUCK DOGGY GOODNESS!!111!!!11!! What Michigan couldn't stop this week vs APP, they WON'T stop next week. Forget about it.
Fresno St @ Texas A&M - THIS is one of those winnable games that Pat White will get his kids ready for. If Fresno St can manage to slow down that running attack or match them score for score, then I can definitely see a Fresno St win. I also expect a significant amount of value for this one...
Boise St @ Washington - I have faith in Boise St. I'm bamboozled by where this line will be, and Weber St was no great test, but I'm going to give this one a good hard look.
UAB @ Florida St - I expect an absolute romping slaughter like it was this week. If it's under 3 TDs, I'll probly lay the chalk.
Cal Poly @ Idaho - I'm sure I'll have something better to do than analyze this.
South Carolina @ Georgia - I know I know. Home in the SEC. Still, whoever is a dog, if I can get upwards of 2:1, I'll look damned hard at backing the Cocks of the dawgs.
Troy @ Florida - Didn't see FL play. Doubt I'll bother here.
Kent St @ Kentucky - I really wonder what is to be done with this matchup too. Kent St has to be a dog, right?
Mizzou @ Ole Miss - Missouri tried to give away that cover to an illinois backup QB. A lot. I can't imagine they'd be a dog......one can hope, tho.
North Carolina @ ECU - I'm a big Butch Davis fan. Who isn't? I didn't bet it, but I did think VT would cover. I was wrong. ECU managed over 4ypc against VT's defensive speed, and they managed +2 TOs. I think that's extremely commendable for what we assumed was a shit squad (hell, they ARE a shit squad). If UNC comes in a decent sized Fave after beating up on James Madison, I might have to throw my money away against the Smurfs and New Papa Butch.
Notre Dame @ Penn St - bad year for the irish. They will be dogs, and I will likely bet against them. They are baaaad. Clausen did better, but they still managed no TDs. Over/Under on how many games before they get an offensive TD? I doubt it'll come against Penn St.
Air Farce @ Utah - Utah injuries might make even air force look like a possible winner here...probly won't play it as long as the Cadets slogan remains
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aimlow
BYU @ UCLA - Brain is scrambled on what to think on this one, so I'll probably just skip it. UCLA likely will win.
Maine @ Uconn - NO Moneyline available, I'm sure.
Northern Iowa @ Iowa St - Northern Iowa should be worth a look....ISU is looking scattered and shitty. Still probly pass this one for me.
Rice @ Baylor - Rice just might be worthwhile against about an equally shitty bunch of bears. Depends on the number for me...I may be the only one playing this one.
TCU @ Texas - oh my God I want value for the frogs. After this week, I'm wanting to fade some longhorns. ......and even though I love the possibilities and likelihoods, I'll probly skip this game. Depends on if I think the number is juicy.
SDSU @ Wazzu - ...right. Moving on.
Ohio @ ULLafayette - whoever the dog is, I'll likely be on it...especially with Ohio visiting.
West Illinois @ Illinois - This can be in the Wazzu slot.
Memphis @ Arky St - Arky St as a home dog would be a fun team to back for some good odds.
Toledo @ Central Michigan - CMU got rocked. I was wrong there. Might go back to the well, though. Here's another I might just take the dog in...
Maryland @ Fl, Int - Not seeing Flint win this one. A lot.
SE Louie @ Kansas - looks like Kansas gets another scrimmage...against lesser talent.
Hawaii @ Louie Tech - No LT for me. Hawaii rolls. It'll be a lot. I probly won't lay the points.
Southern Miss @ Tenn - No. As much as I steer toward the MAC and SunBelt for ML dogs, I stay away from the SEC. Far away.
UTEP @ Texas Tech - Unless I miss my guess about what I'll see in Monday's game, I'm not at all interested in this dog. TT to win by a lot.
Mississippi St @ Tulane - MSU's defense is good. Their offense redefined stinky ass. Tulane should have an opportunity here. I wonder about value...
Florida Atlantic @ Oklahoma St - FAU did well in week 1, and I missed it. I expect to miss them sucking ass in week 2.
San Jose St @ Kansas St - I'd have to do a LOT of talking myself into this one......and it would require more money than they're likely to offer.
North Texas @ Southern Methodist - I really want to see the monday game before I give this one much thought. Probably a no play - even SMU can get a win...
Indiana @ Western Michigan - I'm a fan of the MAC directionals...and as much as I like Indiana too, I might just have to have money on the Broncos.
Syracuse @ Iowa - the orange showed they could lose spectacularly at home. I think they can do it on the road, too. Iowa had to fight off a fiesty UNI squad on the road and not only won....they covered...even late numbers. I might have to put mony with Iowa in week 2 as well.
South Florida @ Auburn - I dunno...I hate trying to fade decent to good SEC teams at home...still..might have to look at this depending ont he number. After the late 4thQ win over K State, there might be some good value for another upstart...course, that's another factor of upstart.
VPI @ LSU - This'll be the game everyone talks about, and I likely want no part of it.
NMSU @ UNM - The New Mexico Bowl. NMSU lost at home last year, and they've lost 4 straight. DD spread? Perhaps it should be...New Mexico St may have a good chance, tho...returning 10 Offensive starters. Game was 28-34 last year, and NMSU coughed it up 5 times...should be better this year.
Northern AZ @ AZ - after Tuitama's pathetic performance, I'm giving serious thought to North AZ...
Wisconsin @UNLV - Slaughterhouse. UNLV has no chance.
Colorado @ AZ St - I have no idea where these teams are in their seasons yet. Colorado was outplayed statistically. As I write this, AZSt is still taking care of the vaunted SJSU. This line will interest me.

possible plays (obviously dependent on number value):
Oregon St/Cinci dog
Nevada/N'western dog
Miami FL/Oklahoma dog...very likely not.
Ball St/EMU dog
Vandy...if I'm feeling particularly optimistic
Oregon
Fresno St
Boise St?
South Carolina
Kent St
Mizzou - line?
East Carolina
Rice/Baylor dog
TCU - line?
Ohio/UL Lafayette dog
Arkansas St
Toledo/CMU dog
Miss St/Tulane dog
W. Michigan
South Florida
New Mexico St


Ga Tech team total
Wyoming
Boston College, perhaps
Florida St
Northern Iowa
Iowa
Northern AZ
Wisky

Obviously, I won't play all these, but it's a starting point to get me oriented for seeing lines tomorrow.

:cheers:
 
Northern AZ @ AZ - after Tuitama's pathetic performance, I'm giving serious thought to North AZ...

LOL, I'm with you that one red. Nice writeups. I'm with you on most of your assessments.

I agree as well, Oregon might be a good ML play. I generally believe that teams that suffer shocking upsets take a couple weeks to recover. I'm real curious to see where the oddsmakers will set this line at.

Miami I don't think well be dog play for me, if anything I'll be looking to play Oklahoma. The Canes offense looked good against Marshall, but how will they look against a real defense? We'll see.

Probably will have between 3 and 5 ML doggie plays, and a lot of chalk plays again. :shake:
 
yeah, all those thoughts are of course dependent on what the number I can get is......so we'll see.

Let's do better this week.

:shake:
 
UNC +155

I really think the wrong team is favored here. I think the game vs VPI was more a function of VPI's emotion than a function of EZyoo's talent and ability.

Temple -3 (-110)

Went ahead and took this. Temple really has improved, and, dare I say it, I think they'll want vengeance for last year's loss. I will fully accept ridicule for this statement.
 
Some games I may consider...

MTSU +20,000 - I might have to drop $100 on this just for shits and giggles.
Cincinnati +135 - I had just assumed Cinci would be favored....I really gotta give this one some thought.
Nevada +290 - The more I look at this one the less I like it. Still, I'm considering. For 3:1 at +8 I might find some value here...maybe.
Miami, FL +380 - For going against this Oklahoma team at +10.5, I really think the points might be the far better bet here. I don't think 380 is a good number...
Miami, Oh +320 - Again, I kinda expect more for this one, but I can definitely see Minny losing this one again. I'm leaning toward this value...if not the likelihood of a win.
Toledo +135 - This is a lot less value than I wanted to see. I actually think this line is pretty good. I still have to look at it, but I want more value...at least 150.
Rice +210 - I like this game as a replacement for the Futility Bowl this year.
NCSU +410 - I only list this here because it's higher than I think it ought to be. I thought the line should be more like 9 or 10, and over 4:1 says value here. I do think NC State has a decent shot - perhaps 30%, but I really do think BC wins this one. Hell, here's one of the few games that a team might have revenge on their minds vs NCSU this year...
Eastern Michigan +185 - I want 2:1 for this. I will very likely play it in any event, but I want more than a buck eighty-five.
Oregon +245 - I think I lost some value from 260 earlier. It's another game I likely WILL play, but I may have to wait for friday to get a number I like at MB.
Udub +132 - damn cheap ass low number cockass shitfucking whores of linesmakers (not you Rexy)
Fresno St +800 - This is cheap ass bullshit, too. At 17.5 this should be well over 1k. Alas. I'll at least play the points...
South Carolina +195 - I'm liking this one a lot...But again I think I can do better later on.
UNC +155 - already played it.
TCU +330 - My guess is the Longhorns didn't get scared enough by week 1. TCU at 330 strikes me as a pretty good deal. I can see somewheres between a 40-60% Frog chance of winning depending on team mindsets, so 3.3:1 is quite good. You Longhorns' miles may vary.
Tulane +210 - at home...hmm. I was thinking tulsa. nevermind.
Kent St +425 - not sure they can score with the wildcats, but not any more sure the wildcats can stop them, either...
VPI +365 - They'll lose if they don't step up. But I can see em perhaps play dead in wk1 to not show LSU anything. Gotta be on the radar screen, I think.
NMSU +270 - I know the losing streak. I bet against it and lost last year. I'll likely do it again. These aggies are improved. UNM statistically destroyed UTEP, and the miners are terrible....and UNM managed to lose due to 35 missed FGs. I get 2.70 on that, and I'm a happy bearded fucker.
Ohio/ULLafeyette - no value. none. fuggit.
Arkansas St +153 - After the performance the Indians gave the Longhorns, I expected less value than this...I like this homedog, and I'll likely play it. I haven't had respect for the Memphis program since DeAngelo left for the panthers.

Hawaii -27.5....I hate laying 4TDs. probly won't play it, but I like it.

Likely plays:
EMU
South Carolina


Already played:
North Carolina +155
Arkansas St +160
Oregon +300
Rice +210
NMSU +260
Miami, OH +330
NC State +500

spreads:
Hawaii -27.5
Penn St -16.5
Temple -3
Missouri -6 (-104)
 
Redbearde, we're exactly on the same page. Temple is the only spread I've played so far too.

Hey are you getting those MLs at the Greek? I just looked and saw that they're the only book that has them out. I may have to open an account there. I just use Bookmaker, Matchbook and Jamaica.

So any thoughts on the Wake ML? I'm pretty tempted if I can get +250 or more as a home dog. Nebraska is scary the way they ran all over Nevada and had no trouble scoring at will. But tough spot to go on the road with USC on deck. I was actually very impressed with Wake on Saturday, their solid play has changed my opinion that they were a one hit wonder last year.

I like the UNC play. That will probably make my card. Oregon I think I may have to take a shot with as well.
 
5dimes has some too.

I think it's highly optimistic to think Wake can beat Nebraska. I think talent differential which wasn't as great vs BC will show up here. How will Wake's defense ever stop Nebraska? And will the husker's D not stop Wake's Offense? I would expect a Nebraska win. ...almost certainly. I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep it closer...they do manage to play well as you say, but Matt Ryan passed for over 400 yards and 5TDs off 32 of 52....and 1 pick. 1. in 52 passes.

Wake tossed 4 picks in 60 passes.

Also...and as weak as this may sound........Wake had an average of 31 yards per punt. off 6 punts. That strikes me as rather low, and even in the event that it IS a defensive battle, field position ought to favor

Nevada's bad, so perhaps Nebraska has true colors we'll see soon, but I rather think it's impressive to hold a team under 200 yards of total offense.......and obviously 625 yards hung on about anyone when you're not named Colt Brennan is frickin impressive...

So I likely won't join you on Wake. GL with it tho...

I've actually played Hawaii and Penn St too. Just haven't been discussing too many spread plays. I honestly thought Temple would be more like a 7 to 10 pt favorite. This -3 is a fucking joke in my mind. I think this'll be a 2TD win.
 
Oregon +300 now...
Fresno ST +925..that's better. still not good.
TCU +360

gotta make decisions on these before dr FUCK UP MY LINES thursday...
 
Call me crazy, but I feel that the San Jose St. ML will offer tons of value and I will most likely be playing it.
 
TheGarfather said:
dmoney, you're gonna want to find out if Yonus Davis is healthy.
Click to expand...

Agreed, that is basically what I am waiting for. They just got a boatload of points IMO because of their "performance" against Arizona St, and they are a much better team than that.
 
This is the latest I can find, I'll keep us posted on him.

SJSU notes: Yonus Davis injures ankle, does not return
<!--subtitle--><!--byline-->MercuryNews
<!--date-->Article Launched: 09/02/2007 01:54:55 AM PDT

TEMPE, Ariz. - San Jose State's running-back situation went from bad to worse on the Spartans' first offensive play of the season Saturday.
Tailback Yonus Davis suffered a left-ankle sprain during a 1-yard run against Arizona State and did not return to the game. Seven days earlier, top backup Patrick Perry suffered a season-ending knee injury in practice.
Davis, who gained 1,007 yards last season, left the Sun Devil Stadium locker room on crutches but said he hopes to play Saturday at Kansas State.

"It's not swollen, and that's a good thing," he said.

Coach Dick Tomey said Davis will only return when he is completely healed.

Davis said his ankle was twisted in the pile of bodies after his short run.
"I just felt a pop," he said.

SJSU's running game struggled against ASU, gaining 40 yards in 26 carries. Fullback James T. Callier, Cameron Island, Dante Collins and Jacob French took turns lining up at tailback. Quarterback Adam Tafralis was SJSU's leading rusher, gaining 19 yards in six carries.

• Sophomore defensive tackle Adonis Davis suffered a left-ankle sprain during the Spartans' first defensive series. He is questionable for the Kansas State game.
• SJSU started two freshmen on the offensive line for the first time since freshmen eligibility was restored by the NCAA in 1972. Wilcox High product Isaac Leatiota started at left guard and San Leandro High product Moa Ngatuvai started at right guard.

Leatiota won the right-guard job in camp, but he was shifted because Ronnie Castillo moved from left guard to center to fill in for Justin Paysinger, who has been sidelined by a back injury.


• Junior college transfer David Richmond caught a team-high five passes and displayed toughness when he held onto the ball while absorbing a hit that knocked off his helmet.

• Arizona State's Ryan Torain was the third consecutive running back to rush for at least 100 yards against SJSU, dating to last season.
- LAURENCE MIEDEMA
 
Arkansas St +160

This is more a fade of memphis (incidentally on the road) than a serisou play riding the Indians' high they must be on after statistically beating the longhorns (well, except for the score - the important part).
 
Yeah, hell with it. Playing it now.

Oregon +300

It may well go higher, but I'm not going to worry about it at this point. If the Wolvies are starting over from scratch, I like getting 3:1 against them.
 
also went ahead and played

Rice +210
New Mexico St +260

I'm not sure what the Rice number will do, but I'm pretty sure NMSU will go down.
 
I want a bit more for

EMU and South Carolina. 2:1 would suit me. I will still likely play TCU, but not today.
 
regarding arky st, perhaps it's just my inexplicable bigotry against memphis from last year but in games like that one, they just seemed to find ways to lose. Even when they beat UTEP it was off of FOUR turnovers. Ole Miss... UCF...Houston...Ark St all 3 or less.

...UAB...6

It seems like SSDD to me. Memphis tossed Ole Miss's salad in every damned statistic...including coughing up 5 TOs to 3.

343 yards passing is great, but 60 passes doesn't strike me as balance...and SURPRISE he threw 4 picks. Adams managed 200 yards off 19/30. No picks. Perhaps 343 is to be expected when you throw the ball 60 damned times...

honestly, gentlemen, I cannot tell if it's not my memphis bigotry coming out and I'm looking for reasons to think less of them rather than letting what I see in them dictate what I think. Ole Miss got 2 TDs off of Memphis fuckups (99 yard pick6 & a blocked punt for a TD). This could have been a solid 21-6 Memphis win, but...well....it's just what they've done the last 15 games or so...

I could be completely wrong. I sure was about michigan...

on to NCSU.

Anyone know for sure if Beck is starting? He should be. THAT is what changed in the 2nd Quarter to stop the hemmorhage of shit that was the NC State offense. Yes, he has a pick, but it was in a last minute ball busting attempt at getting the win. After being down 22-3, the wolfpack damn near won the game with Beck's ability to stay alive for a fraction of a second longer ...and he got the ball to receivers.

I really think BC wins this game. But if I'm getting so much...and last I saw the number is at 475 at 5dimes, 425 at greek, and 400 at wsex.....I gotta think I might be able to fill +500 at MB in a couple days, and at that price, FUCK YEAH I'll play it...I might have to play the points too if I can get over 2 TDs....

and btw...

Toney Baker blew out some cartilidge in his knee. Andre Brown is going to have to work a whole game. I rather like this particular development. I haven't liked this RB sharing time shit. We've needed a Starter and a Backup at NCSU, and we haven't had that since ol fumblethumbs left to fail at Broncos camp.

anyway, Baker here: http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=266822

Beck WILL be starting against BC.

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=267279
 
red, do you think for emu to win that ball state has to lay another offensive egg or do you think emu can score on them ? in short , what is your take on this one ?
 
my take is basically that aside from Kent St and a couple directional teams, the MAC is a complete pile of crap. ...and home dogs at 2:1 are good value in the MAC (not lookin like I'll get 2:1, so it may be a no play).

I try not to analyze MAC and SBC games quite the way I would a team from a BCS conference. The good players are generally a bit less reliable, and the great players are few and far between....and they are typically not over-run with depth. I don't believe Ball St is much better than EMU...and even if I did, weird unexpected kooky shit goes on there...

The teams are largely intact from last year, and Ball St won 38-20. Ball St is 0-11 recently in road openers. Emu managed ONE win last year...against Toledo. The defense should be tougher this year with 9 starters back, and ...

well......is 338 yards of offense an egg? Ball St's big problem was kick returns - not that Miami, OH was much better, but if Ball St gives EMU the 40 or 50 yard line every time, they'll be able to score a couple TDs on em, too...

Pitt is a bit of a tougher egg to crack than Ball St. ....but 145 yards of offense for EMU is still shameful. 42 yards on 25 rushes. ......still. I don't think Ball St's front 7 are to be compared with Pitt.

In short, it's a MAC fave-fade. ...and I haven't played it yet.

If you have some insight on that one, I'd love to see it.
 
if it gets to 14 or more u have to take state i think...yes we looked terrible first half...but now we have a qb (hopefully) and andre brown will be taking charge of the game...looked for an improved team that plays both halves of the game...watching them go to the house on the first play was awful..

liked what i saw in tob's adjustments..
 
RB...maybe I missed your thoughts on it, but what do you think of South Florida +260?

Just saw it...I know they didn't look spectacular against Elon, but they had to be looking ahead to Auburn. Thinking they come prepared for Auburn myself.
 
I think this is emu best chance at a home win this year vs d1 opposition. Technically they only have 3 true home games to d1 schools this year. If you look at emu last year you see that they actually defended the pass pretty well , while struggling a lot vs the run. In my mind ballstate is a passing club and not a power team. some facts from last year to back up my point.

emu was ranked 116th vs the rush
emu was ranked 39th vs the pass

sure some of this is the fact that emu was trailing quite a bit last year so teams didnt "need" to throw as much.

After the ball st game a year ago to open the season emu held all but the smack you in the mouth running teams to low scores.

power running teams scores vs emu:

mich st-52 , ull 33, ohio 16 , navy 49 , n ill 27.

compared to what they gave up to passing teams or balance teams

northwestern 14 , c mich 24 ( was an ot game 17 in regulation) , bowling green 24 , toledo 13 , w michigan 18 , kent st 14

See what i mean ? they match up better when they cant get run over at the line of scrimmage. in addition to this the defense played pretty well in ypsilanti last year giving up only 18.25 a contest there.

They have 9 returning starters to that defense so you would expect it to be better.

i think the way the defense plays at home gives them a decent shot at pulling off the upset. i would have liked the spot more had ball st beaten miami oh ( ummmm why didnt i bet miami oh ? because i stupidly waited for a 7 that never came).

with all that said ball st pumped them for 38 last year. i didnt see that game so i dont know much other than the box score as to what happened there. sorry for long winded post ... but just some thoughts on why i think emu is a live doggy.
 
hahahaha...here I was thinking you wanted me to justify my silliness with liking EMU!

THANK YOU for your thoughts. got a line move guess?

....i fear the spread will drop before I can get to MLs on MB...
 
i have no clue on the line move.

hard to predict what a line move means in the mac anyways, given the shennanigans . ( spell ? )
 
I agree with Big Raktor.... South Florida at + 260 or so looks pretty good

crib notes ("borrowed" from Phil Steele).... Auburn 3-8 ATS vs non-conf opponents... USF 4-2 ATS vs ranked teams recently with some huge SU upsets (won at West Virginia last year 24-19 as 21.5 dogs, won at Rutgers in '05 45-31 as 2.5 dogs, and beat Lousville in '05 45-14 as a 20 pt dog).. Steele ranks USF's offense higher (#55 nationally to #67 for Auburn) and also ranks USF's defense higher (#25 nationally to #32 for Auburn)....

..also, Matt Hayes in this week's Sporting News, writes, "...Kansas State didn't pull off the upset but exposed a weakness in Auburn's defense: The Tigers' secondary struggles in man coverage. Things could get even more dicey this week against South Florida and QB Matt Grothe, a dual threat who is dangerous when breaking containment. The Bulls will spread the field and force Auburn to cover in man situations (see: Appalachian State vs. Michigan). If Grothe breaks a few runs early and Auburn has to use a spy on him, it will force the Tigers into man coverage with no safety help. There is a catch: if the Bulls can't block speedy Auburn DE Quentin Groves -- not many teams have -- their plans will break down quickly..."
 
Wolfpack17 said:
if it gets to 14 or more u have to take state i think...yes we looked terrible first half...but now we have a qb (hopefully) and andre brown will be taking charge of the game...looked for an improved team that plays both halves of the game...watching them go to the house on the first play was awful..

liked what i saw in tob's adjustments..
Click to expand...

I like it when you and I agree on an NC State game...as time progresses I lean more toward points here...
 
I don't buy into the "Auburn sucks this year" theory that the ESPN boys seem to...I don't mind being wrong about it, but gentlemen, Auburn losing at home strikes me as rather unlikely...even to USF who returns 9 offensive starters.

Capping MLs is significantly different from capping points - you gotta ask yourself...will auburn let USF win at Auburn. Cover? They may very well, but a cover doesn't do you any good at +260. IF you think there's a matchup or line problem auburn has that USF is going to exploit...if you think Auburn's QB is going to make even Claussen look good this week.....if you think Auburn doesn't have the speed on D to keep up with USF's returning starters that's fine.....If you think Grothe won't be affected by the sophomore slump for some specific reason.

These are reasons for taking them. But I don't like the odds. Good luck to you if you play it...but I was actually considering laying some chalk. ...probly won't, but that's where my lean is.

:shake:
 
ricky bobby said:
I agree with Big Raktor.... South Florida at + 260 or so looks pretty good

crib notes ("borrowed" from Phil Steele).... Auburn 3-8 ATS vs non-conf opponents... USF 4-2 ATS vs ranked teams recently with some huge SU upsets (won at West Virginia last year 24-19 as 21.5 dogs, won at Rutgers in '05 45-31 as 2.5 dogs, and beat Lousville in '05 45-14 as a 20 pt dog).. Steele ranks USF's offense higher (#55 nationally to #67 for Auburn) and also ranks USF's defense higher (#25 nationally to #32 for Auburn)....

..also, Matt Hayes in this week's Sporting News, writes, "...Kansas State didn't pull off the upset but exposed a weakness in Auburn's defense: The Tigers' secondary struggles in man coverage. Things could get even more dicey this week against South Florida and QB Matt Grothe, a dual threat who is dangerous when breaking containment. The Bulls will spread the field and force Auburn to cover in man situations (see: Appalachian State vs. Michigan). If Grothe breaks a few runs early and Auburn has to use a spy on him, it will force the Tigers into man coverage with no safety help. There is a catch: if the Bulls can't block speedy Auburn DE Quentin Groves -- not many teams have -- their plans will break down quickly..."
Click to expand...

Perhaps that's the bet in a nutshell. Will Auburn's DLine bust through to kill Grothe before he can run away or get off a pass?

If you think he can consistently make plays through the Auburn line, then perhaps 2.5:1 is worthwhile to you.

:shake:
 
Nice work, alot of reviews output on your part. I noticed alot of people liking Washington, Im with you on Boise St. I think there will be some value in Boise this year, they have a fairly easy schedule. Playing @ Washington might be there most difficult task until their last game on the island. You would tend to think they are prepared for this game. Interesting. What have you evaluated out of it?
 
Very little. I was hoping for a boise dog. I didn't get it. ...I think they ought to be favored, but I don't like betting boise chalk when they aren't running around on turf not colored with smurf blood...

I think they may very well cover...even that they are likely to. But I try for mostly underdog MLs here...other guys cap spreads better than I.

:shake:
 
So here's where I stand thus far:

North Carolina +155
Arkansas St +160
Oregon +300
Rice +210
NMSU +260
Miami, OH +330
NC State +500

spreads:
Hawaii -27.5
Penn St -16.5
Temple -3
Missouri -6 (-104)

Spread plays aside, I really need to get 3 wins this week for it to be a good week. And I very much like my chances when I compare them to my payouts.

UNC has actually risen to 186 at MB right now......damnit.
Arky St is at 148.
Oregon got Dr Bobbed and is at +270 now.
NMSU is at +242.
Rice...well, apparently I'm the only one on them..now at +256.
and Miami, OH and NCSU I just added.

overall I'm pretty pleased with this week's offerings. TCU still looks damned good to me, though I shoulda taken it a couple days ago. Probly won't bother now.

And Fresno St still smells fuckin great, but I'm not so sure I know what to expect out of A&M...I still might add the +17.5 spread play, but probly not.
 
Im a die hard aggie but after watching us play montana state, ill give it a shot on the ML for fresno state. The score 38-7 is really misleading and we have no pass defense for probably the 1000th straight year. Montana St passed on us at will. They were pretty successful driving the ball on us but they would screw up at the end of the drive and they missed two field goals. At +900 to +1000, im going to take a shot.
 
redbearde said:
I like it when you and I agree on an NC State game...as time progresses I lean more toward points here...
Click to expand...

Pressley is out indefinitely with a knee injury and surgery and Alan Michael Cash starting lb is at his dad's funeral this weekend and will not play.


This game is looking more and more scary. Therefore I like it more and more because this line should be going up.

What are you thinking on this one
 
redbearde said:
So here's where I stand thus far:

North Carolina +155
Arkansas St +160
Oregon +300
Rice +210
NMSU +260
Miami, OH +330
NC State +500

spreads:
Hawaii -27.5
Penn St -16.5
Temple -3
Missouri -6 (-104)

Spread plays aside, I really need to get 3 wins this week for it to be a good week. And I very much like my chances when I compare them to my payouts.

UNC has actually risen to 186 at MB right now......damnit.
Arky St is at 148.
Oregon got Dr Bobbed and is at +270 now.
NMSU is at +242.
Rice...well, apparently I'm the only one on them..now at +256.
and Miami, OH and NCSU I just added.

overall I'm pretty pleased with this week's offerings. TCU still looks damned good to me, though I shoulda taken it a couple days ago. Probly won't bother now.

And Fresno St still smells fuckin great, but I'm not so sure I know what to expect out of A&M...I still might add the +17.5 spread play, but probly not.
Click to expand...

Didn't see that you had added the wolfpack...+500. now that is some great odds.
 
I am on Rice as well. I like all of your dog bets with the exception of maybe Arky St. GL this week Red.
 
Sexy thread Red....always a great read...me thinks your gonna have a solid 40 percent week on ML's and sides are very nice
 
i f ncstate pops in there for ya , you should be pretty set. if you win ALL of your moneylines you have to get some chewing gum and blow a huge bubble and let it burst into your beard ... like the santa in "miracle on 34th street" .
 
vegaskyle, even winning 4 would be cause for a bubblegum in the bearde celebration...

BAR, I hope you're right. We'll see.

Dmoney, it's you and me against the world with Rice...fuck the world.

Wolfpack17, truly, it really is a value play. I'm thinking 35% chance to win, and I'm getting 5:1. If Beck passes well again...if the RBs can get a few yards, and if the defense can compete (and I think they're capable), then I can see several scenarios where the wolfpack wins. I expected this to be around +300 (+8.5 to +9), and I think the spread play at 14.5 is most excellent too.

okay.....I can't help it.

Fresno St +950 (1/2 ML unit)
Fresno St +17.5 (-110)

1/2 ML unit = 40% of a spread unit...if'n you care.
 
Methinks this'll be the extent of the card for me...and I'm hoping for a big day.

North Carolina +155
Arkansas St +160
Oregon +300
Rice +210
NMSU +260
Miami, OH +330
NC State +500
Fresno St +950 (.5 unit)

spreads:
Hawaii -27.5
Penn St -16.5
Temple -3
Missouri -6 (-104)
Fresno St +17.5 (-110)
 
red with you on arkie state,nmst, and totally agree with you on auburn .Its a no play for me but auburn wont let usf win there. your other picks havent looked at. BOL Red
 
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