CFB Friday/Saturday wk 3

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
2008 record 9-9 , -550
___________________________________________

Back on track now picking up 8 units on UNC ATS and ML.. Its going to be a busy weekend. Lets get it started.

These were locked in yesterday and noted in my Thursday thread:

Michigan -2, -110; 4 units Loss
Wisky -2, -110; 2 units WIN
Iowa under 21.5 2H, -115, 2 units WIN
ND/Mich over 2H 20.5, -110, 2 units Loss
Mich 2h -.5, -130; 4 units Loss
NMST +26.5 -110, 4units Loss
SMU +36, -110, 2 units PUSH
4 more units on Wisky -1, -110 WIN



Add Friday game:

Kansas +3.5, -115; 4 units WIN
Kansas ML +170; 2 units LOSS



I'll get some writeups going later today or tommorow and have a lean on the Friday night game but still researching that one.

Other leans:

UCLA
Iowa State
Bowling Green

still debating:

Ball St
Hawaii (waiting on HG)
Buff<!-- / message -->
 
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one of the first people on wisc...not on it myself, but i sure lean that way...gl tee, on the other side of your michigan play
 
Wisconsin notes:

  • I had Fresno v. Rutgers (and profitted nicely) but as I watched that game I really thought Fresno was getting all the breaks and I actually thought Rutgers was better up front.. Watched it again and felt even more sure.. I mentioned it before the UNC/Rutgers game because I suspected UNC would dominate Rutgers, which they did, so I basically have lost alot of cred for Fresno especially in the trenches. They face a Wisky team that is much more physical than Rutgers and I think the difference will be alarming..
  • Wisky QB Evridge did enough last week to show me Fresno can't stack the box. (17-26, 308 yards)
  • I believe Fresno will stack the box anyway because that is the only way they will be able to slow the Badgers running game. So look for Evridge to have a big day.. Check status of TE Travis Beckham. He hasn't played yet this year (hamstring) but is expected to play Saturday.. He will be key IMO.
  • Wisky is loaded in the trenches returning all 5 O-lineman and 3 defensive linemen.. In all Wisky returns 17 starters.
  • RB-- they are very deep and it goes way beyond PJ Hill. They will dominate the LOS IMO and then keep throwing fresh runningbacks at an undersized Fresno stop unit.
  • Wisky Defense-- return 9 starters on defense .
This is Bielima's best team in his three years and they will bring a physicality that will be shocking to Fresno.. As I said, I love Fresno and backed them vs Rutgers but this is a huge challenge and IMO they fall short.

I would not be surprised to see Fresno run out to an emotional early lead.. Be patient.
 
broadwayjoe said:
one of the first people on wisc...not on it myself, but i sure lean that way...gl tee, on the other side of your michigan play
Click to expand...

Yep, pretty sure I (and homer Fondy) will be the only one on Wisky.. Seems a little strange to me.
 
Michigan notes:

Alot has already been written on this game so I won't duplicate-- just quickly summarize.

  • I like the two QB system Michigan seems to be settling into.. ND has enough problems- trying to prepare for two QBs will just add to it.
  • This game will be won on defense IMO and I believe the Michigan D will dominate especially up front. VS Utah and MI-Ohio they allowed only 1.1 yards per carry. This is looking like a rain game and I'll take the team that can make the other offense one dimensional.
  • WR edge definately goes to the Irish but I don't think many downfield opps will be there with the combination of the weather and the Michigan pressure.
  • I played MI-OHIO plus the points in a top unit bet against Michigan last week and cashed. However I came away impressed with Michigan's ability to move the ball on the ground against probably the best group of linebackers (all 3 nominated for Butkus award) either team will see.. Mi-Ohio is tough defensesively and Michigan gained a respectable 5.1 YPC.
This game will be won by Michigans defense IMO. No way ND will be able to maintain any rythym offensively.. If I get real bad weather , I may add to it..
 
This is one of those games where I wonder if Wisky is a 6 point favorite, if more people take Wisky. I know it sounds strange, but I think more people look at flags thrown up by opening lines, which this one threw up for me, and jump based on that. I think that Wisky is a MUCH better team here, as some of Fresno St.'s credibility was taken away from them last night. I know that's not fair to them, but that's the truth. I've got the Badgers winning by almost 2 TD's, which I think will be close to the final difference. Not taking it simply because this is the weirdest line on the board, and there's something to be said for that, I guess. I just have a feeling that I'm going to look back on this one and wonder why I didn't pound the Badgers. We'll see...
 
Add Friday game:

Kansas +3.5, -115; 4 units

Going against the majority of the board in this one as well.:seeya:

Kansas is loaded, experienced (15 returning starters) and basically roll into this game with very few question marks IMO... Defensively they return nearly everyone and offensively they seem to be getting better . They are extremely difficult to defend with Reesing having already completed a pass to 11 different receivers.

I understand this is Friday night Lights and it will be an extremly hostile enviroment and I'll admit this could go way wrong if the mo starts favoring USF early, but I don't see it.

I got the much better offense and a better defense and a team that lost only one game LY (to Mizzu) and basically returns everyone.. I don't get all the love for USF... I like them and will bet them several times this year but definately not in this spot..

I'll add a few more perhaps tonight or in the morning..

I'll be around awhile if there are ?'s or debates that need to be waged.:cheers:
 
TopDaddy said:
This is one of those games where I wonder if Wisky is a 6 point favorite, if more people take Wisky. I know it sounds strange, but I think more people look at flags thrown up by opening lines, which this one threw up for me, and jump based on that. I think that Wisky is a MUCH better team here, as some of Fresno St.'s credibility was taken away from them last night. I know that's not fair to them, but that's the truth. I've got the Badgers winning by almost 2 TD's, which I think will be close to the final difference. Not taking it simply because this is the weirdest line on the board, and there's something to be said for that, I guess. I just have a feeling that I'm going to look back on this one and wonder why I didn't pound the Badgers. We'll see...
Click to expand...

Actually I understand your point exactly... Fresno is the "chic" play this week.. They are a neat story and may win and you can tell by my lower unit total I am covering myself for that possibility but I will say this. For Fresno to win this game a lot has to go right because they are out-talented at nearly 80% of the positons in play,, IMHO..

They had to have everything go right to even stay in the game in the first half with Rutgers. People forget about that. Watch the first Half of the Rutgers/Fresno game and tell me who was the better team based on what you saw? It was Rutgers and as we found out they are about as soft as a pillow...

Physically, this is a mismatch.
 
why u gotta play KANSAS, tee, why!!!
icon9.gif



i'm against you tonight, like the rest of the board, and that doesn't bode well for us.... :shake:
 
The line went to 4.5 and the money line jumped to +170..

OK. Was considering the ML anyway and that number makes it a play.

Add:

Kansas ML +170, 2 units
 
Kansas ATS!!!!:smiley_acbe:

Lost the ML but picked up a clean 2 units on the night.

:hammer::hammer:
 
Like Wisky Tee...FWIW..

also like Iowa though as see Iowa State as smoke and mirrors. They were outgained and out 1st downed 20-14 . They have been getting killed on the ground . Last year Iowa was FAT laying -17.5 on the road in this rivalry with no offense ...Also Iowa State has d 21 pts off turnovers . Just see Iowa State as struggling and there defense has not been impressive. Good chance Iowa gets 31-35 pts here IMO and really dont see Iowa State cracking 17 with help from short fields...:cheers:BOL
 
Last year's bowl game blocked FG is a huge revenge angle for ucla... I still cringe at the thought of it. This is however reminiscent of the utah st. game last year where bruins got exposed on the 1st roadie. Will they be better prepared this time? i sure hope so under slick rick...hard to tell, but gives me hope knowing you may be on them.
 
SportsNut said:
Like Wisky Tee...FWIW..

also like Iowa though as see Iowa State as smoke and mirrors. They were outgained and out 1st downed 20-14 . They have been getting killed on the ground . Last year Iowa was FAT laying -17.5 on the road in this rivalry with no offense ...Also Iowa State has d 21 pts off turnovers . Just see Iowa State as struggling and there defense has not been impressive. Good chance Iowa gets 31-35 pts here IMO and really dont see Iowa State cracking 17 with help from short fields...:cheers:BOL
Click to expand...

Yep, after digging further I am removing this from my lean list. As you mention ISU defense is pretty bad. Check this out--backs are averaging 6.2 ypc against them. Iowa veteran and talented O-line should put up big numbers today but no way I am laying the 13 points in this series---so no play on either side.. Thanks Nut:shake:
 
Trueblue said:
Last year's bowl game blocked FG is a huge revenge angle for ucla... I still cringe at the thought of it. This is however reminiscent of the utah st. game last year where bruins got exposed on the 1st roadie. Will they be better prepared this time? i sure hope so under slick rick...hard to tell, but gives me hope knowing you may be on them.
Click to expand...

A lot of respected members are trying to talk me off of this.:seeya:Not sure it makes it off my lean list. Researching a little more.. Thanks for the info... By the way, got your note over in Pieces thread.. I get it now. Didn't see the joke initially. We're good:shake:
 
miserable conditions in Iowa City.. very poor footing.. I don't think Iowa State is going to score without the aid of a deep turnover.. 3-0 now Iowa and eyeing up a HT play... Lean under and Iowa, but we'll see what the number looks like..
 
UVA is 6-13 ATS their last 19 on the road, and their starting QB is suspended for this game, I hear. They got lucky to win so many games last year, considering half of them were by 1 point. Enough to get me on Uconn for a regular play.
 
RambleOn said:
UVA is 6-13 ATS their last 19 on the road, and their starting QB is suspended for this game, I hear. They got lucky to win so many games last year, considering half of them were by 1 point. Enough to get me on Uconn for a regular play.
Click to expand...
:smiley_acbe:like it
 
tee*dub said:
miserable conditions in Iowa City.. very poor footing.. I don't think Iowa State is going to score without the aid of a deep turnover.. 3-0 now Iowa and eyeing up a HT play... Lean under and Iowa, but we'll see what the number looks like..
Click to expand...

Under 21?:smiley_acbe:
 
add:

Iowa under 21.5 2H, -115, 2 units WIN

:smiley_acbe:hope for no OT
 
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Just cooking a Jummy Claussen on the barbecue right now--

ANythoughts on USC over OSU, they usually do well vs the non conference teams.
 
Played the middle--2nd half un 21 when I already had 250 of IoSt +13.5. Need them to get the field goal ONLY, no TD.

Then end the game.:tiphat:
 
That couldn't have ended better. :smiley_acbe:

Although the cover was a backdoor, Iowa St deserved the cover because of the solid play throughout the game. Special teams TD threatened the cover, but they got it done.

:cheers:
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Just cooking a Jummy Claussen on the barbecue right now--

ANythoughts on USC over OSU, they usually do well vs the non conference teams.
Click to expand...

No value either way IMO Sammy...Seems like gambling to me..Good game to watch, not bet.. GL in whatever you play
 
Tee the weather is pretty bad as you said in the Irish game-- good for us-

Good call on the USC game, i have to get used to watching games for fun like when i was nine years old before i met my bookie
 
Blue_Chip said:
So only four more wins from the Hawkeyes to secure a push on the big season bet, huh?

GL tee
Click to expand...

Thanks BC.. THat was the key game:smiley_acbe:for the 7 win total on Iowa!! Like their chances next week ATS vs PItt also.. Greene is a beast at RB
 
tee, you like UGA -4.5 2H?

Stafford spreading the ball around, Moreno avg 5ypc, take away last penalty you get td not fg for uga.

i've got sc +7 but not confident in sc holding uga off after seeing the first half.

should i go for the middle with a uga winning by 4, 5, or 6?
 
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