CFB Division Winner Futures - Any thoughts?

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
I actually haven't ventured into the futures arena before, but as I look over the numbers on the division winners for each conference, I see a few spots that could provide solid value but wanted to hear from the future players out there to get your input.

Do any of the lines from BOL stand out to you guys as ones that might be worth investing a unit or two on or do you think the wiser plays can be found on the season win totals? Also, do any of you guys play these strategically like taking the top 2 favs in a division when the numbers ensure a positive outcome if 1 of the 2 take the prize at the end of the year?

Looking forward to some solid discussion in the thread thanks!
 
Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
MWC
MWC East Winner
08:00 PM 576 Boise State -160
577 Air Force +450
578 Utah State +550
579 Colorado State +800
580 New Mexico +1000
581 Wyoming +2200

MWC
MWC West Winner
08:00 PM 582 San Diego State -200
583 San Jose State +400
584 Nevada +450
585 UNLV +1400
586 Fresno State +1400
587 Hawaii +2500

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
MAC
MAC East Winner
07:00 PM 564 Bowling Green +240
565 Ohio +300
566 Akron +325
567 Buffalo +575
568 Kent State +575
569 Miami Ohio +650

MAC
MAC West Winner
07:00 PM 570 Western Michigan +120
571 Northern Illinois +325
572 Toledo +325
573 Central Michigan +400
574 Ball State +2000
575 Eastern Michigan +3300

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
SEC
SEC East Winner
08:00 PM 600 Tennessee -140
601 Georgia +275
602 Florida +475
603 Missouri +2500
604 South Carolina +3300
605 Kentucky +3300
606 Vanderbilt +4000

SEC
SEC West Winner
08:00 PM 607 Alabama +110
608 LSU +250
609 Mississippi +750
610 Auburn +1200
611 Arkansas +1200
612 Texas A&M +1400
613 Mississippi State +1600

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
Pac-12
Pac-12 North Winner
08:00 PM 588 Stanford +185
589 Washington +210
590 Oregon +280
591 Washington State +650
592 California +1200
593 Oregon State +10000

Pac-12
Pac-12 South Winner
08:00 PM 594 UCLA +170
595 USC +235
596 Utah +450
597 Arizona State +600
598 Arizona +700
599 Colorado +3300

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
ACC
ACC Atlantic Winner
07:00 PM 501 Clemson +120
502 Florida State +140
503 Louisville +600
504 NC State +2000
505 Boston College +2500
506 Wake Forest +4000
507 Syracuse +5000

ACC
ACC Coastal Winner
07:00 PM 508 Miami Florida +210
509 North Carolina +375
510 Virginia Tech +425
511 Pittsburgh +450
512 Georgia Tech +650
513 Duke +1400
514 Virginia +2500

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
AAC
AAC East Division Winner
07:00 PM 515 South Florida +130
516 Cincinnati +225
517 Temple +300
518 Connecticut +900
519 East Carolina +1400
520 Central Florida +3300

AAC
AAC West Division Winner
07:00 PM 521 Houston -300
522 Memphis +550
523 Navy +550
524 Tulsa +1400
525 SMU +2500
526 Tulane +5000

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
C-USA
C-USA East Winner
07:30 PM 551 Marshall +175
552 Western Kentucky +185
553 Middle Tennessee +325
554 Florida Atlantic +950
555 Old Dominion +1200
556 Florida International +1800
557 Charlotte +6600

C-USA
C-USA West Winner
07:30 PM 558 Southern Miss -150
559 Louisiana Tech +225
560 Rice +850
561 UTEP +1100
562 UTSA +3300
563 North Texas +4000

Thursday, Sep 01, 2016
Big Ten
Big Ten East Winner
07:35 PM 527 Ohio State +110
528 Michigan +160
529 Michigan State +500
530 Penn State +1100
531 Indiana +5000
532 Maryland +8000
533 Rutgers +15000

Big Ten
Big Ten West Winner
07:35 PM 534 Iowa +140
535 Nebraska +225
536 Wisconsin +425
537 Northwestern +950
538 Minnesota +1400
539 Illinois +2500
540 Purdue +3300
 
Here are a few that caught my eye at first glance...

MAC East - Ohio +300
MAC West - NIU +325

ACC Atlantic - Louisville +600
ACC Coastal - UNC +375
 
sucker bets:

Tennessee -140
Miami, Fla. +210

Nest egg bet:

UNC +375

UNC by far is the softest number out there.

Would even take a flier on Pitt +420
 
Scrute said:
Softest schedules on teams that will be at least decent - Virginia Tech, Minnesota
Click to expand...

If VPI can even get back to nine and ten win seasons, it won't be this year. Fuentes ain't coaching in the little league anymore. Can't just throw the ball up for grabs on a consistent basis and expect to come out smelling like roses. .500 club this season. They, Wahoo and Dook will battle for the bottom of the division.
 
I don't think VT is a good team but I don't think they have to be to win the division. They play 2 tough away games, at UNC and at Pittsburgh. They will be off a bye when they travel to Chapel Hill and they are forced to play Pittsburgh on a Thursday where Pitt will have 7 extra days of rest. The other two ACC road games are Syracuse and Duke, both of which are very winnable. They get Miami on a Thursday night at home where neither team has a bye before hand but Miami will be playing a much tougher game against UNC. They get BC, GT and UVA as their other ACC home games. Those are all 3 very winnable games especially given the continuity they will have along the defense with Bud Foster staying put.

Last year they went 4-4 in the ACC with 2 losses coming in OT, a loss to Pitt by 4 and a loss in Coral Gables by 10. Of their 4 wins they did win by less than a FG against GT and UVA. They were only truly dominated in yardage against Pittsburgh and UVA last year. All other games ranged between -42 and +88 net yards.

They return 15 starters with 7 of those coming on defense so it's not unreasonable to expect another solid defense. It's also not unreasonable to expect Fuente to put together an improved offense compared to what they've run out in recent years. I think they can go 6-2 in conference and win the coastal division. I also think they can go 4-4.

Regarding scheduling, the key is that they avoid Clemson, FSU and Louisville. UNC travels to FSU and that is very likely a loss. Miami hosts Florida St. From a PR standpoint I actually rate the coastal UNC, Pitt, Miami, VT but those teams are all separated by less than 4 points. If VT can win on the road at either UNC or Pitt and win at home against Miami then they have an excellent shot to win the Coastal. I don't think they're the best team but the best team doesn't always win.
 
Hard to toss shade on ur detailed post. But it all has to break just right for it to happen. Tech can return all the guys they want, but they can't just simply turn the switch IMO. They've bathed in mediocrity for too long. Gonna take a year. But I can't hate - after you've broken down their sched in good detail - why you want to put something on them. I don't rescend my post, but i rescend the fact I was completely wrong .
 
I played them at +370. I will reiterate that I don't think they're better than UNC, Miami or Pitt but I don't think they have to be. I think the line should have been about +290 so I saw a little value. And no offense to your Heels because they will be a good team again this year but in 2015 a team that had been mired in mediocrity but avoided Clemson, FSU and Ville in the regular season won the Coastal. Gun to my head I think UNC wins it again but I think there is some value in the Hokies at 370. UNC also could not have asked for worse scheduling this year IMO. They play their 4 toughest ACC games in a 4 week period. They go to Tally and then have to play the Hokies 7 days later off a bye before going back down to Miami. If they beat UGA then Pittsburgh all of a sudden turns into a lookahead situation to the game in Tally. I like the team but hate the way the schedule falls.
 
The difference in UNC this season is the strides the defense makes. They'll post another ten win season if their defense gets better. Played strictly in a base all last year and Chiz is supposedly expanding the play book this season. We'll see. Scheds tougher, no doubt. FSU only definitive potential loss, the rest of them have W's by them as far as I'm concerned. Don't nobody sleep on Trubisky, either. Offense is only gonna be better. Heels are here to stay. Whether that's consistent third best in the league is YTBD.
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Ga gonna lose by DD's.
 
Dawgs game gonna be like that time the Heels f'ed up SC in the Meadowlands twenty years ago opening weekend. #MackYears
 
I actually like Trubisky a lot. You know more than I do but I feel like Fedora had him and Marquise split time some in late 2014...or maybe Marquise was just hurt. Either way I have thought Trubisky looked solid when I've seen him in the game. Hood is the 2nd best RB in the conference IMO and Bug is a great utility guy. Switzer is a 9th year senior who will be a great leader. I don't have much concern regarding the offense. On defense Chizik did a solid job last year in stopping teams who had inferior talent which is really about all you can expect from a first year guy. If that can transition to holding elite offenses in the high 20s/low 30s then UNC can hope to beat FSU/Miami in a shootout. I would consider FSU a likely loss and Miami a toss-up. I would consider every other game a likely win and I like that you guys get 2 weeks to prep for the option of GT. If you guys go 3-1 during October then you win the Coastal. If you go 2-2 then we likely see a convoluted tiebreaker come into play
 
From a talent standpoint you guys can play with UGA. I just hope Fedora doesn't shit the bed against an SEC team again. I can't get that South Carolina game out of my head from last year as UNC simply wouldn't allow Hood to win them the game. Hood only having 13 carries in that game was absolutely pathetic. I'm not sure what point Fedora was out to prove that night but it cost you guys the game
 
Even though I'm rooting for the Vols to win the east this year. There is some value in Jorga & Fla to win it.
Vols have a brutal 4 game stretch from Fla - Bama. (survive the Hunt for October)

the talk around Murfersboro/Nashville is that MTSU is primed and ready to win their division. They have been knocking on the door the past few years. I put a little on them +325. They get WKU at home and visit Marshall this year.
 
Great discussion guys, keep it coming.

I definitely agree on the points about schedule for these types of plays as sometimes the draw can get you to the title more so than talent, but with that said I still think there is solid value with the unc number as I think 6-2 can take the coastal this year so wouldn't be surprised to see a 2-3 team race at the wire with tie breakers coming into play.

I have more work to do on the smaller conference division breakdowns but really do see solid value with solich and the bobcats this year.
 
Scrute said:
From a talent standpoint you guys can play with UGA. I just hope Fedora doesn't shit the bed against an SEC team again. I can't get that South Carolina game out of my head from last year as UNC simply wouldn't allow Hood to win them the game. Hood only having 13 carries in that game was absolutely pathetic. I'm not sure what point Fedora was out to prove that night but it cost you guys the game
Click to expand...

... Little booze in me last night.

hard to defend Fedora, but Marquise Williams should not have thrown two poorly thrown balls in the RZ. USC didn't make those int's happen with any brilliance. Very disheartening. Two schools (prolly more the fan bases) hate each other and its tough to lose to your other younger brother like that when you know for a fact you were the better squad. Oh well.

But, unlike since he's been here, after that game Fedora didn't make any more "dumb calls" that I can remember like in years past that would lose them games late. Appears all that is behind him and he's playing CEO now instead of micro-manager.

Chizik defense will get more expansive as I eluded to last evening. Should correlate into more as guys will be in the right places more if they don't screw it up. Believe and trust in one self. Almost sounds silly.

Which brings us to stop the run and you won't be stopping UNC, but bet your bottom dollar every school will come out running first after that shit show last Bowl season even though UNC had opportunities to win that game. Therefore, I'm gonna take back my bravado of last evening on the thumping of the 'Dawgs and just say the Heels win it till I see a running team get stopped. But the Heels will win the Coastal unless injuries take an unusual toll even though the sched is tougher bc the offense will still be King.

Heels 3 plus to 1 to take the Coastal.
 
Agree that Fedora did a hell of a job the rest of the season and he gave one of the classiest post game pressers after the ACC CG as well. I really became a fan of his as the season progressed and I think he grew as a coach. You're also completely correct regarding those awful INTs. It took a perfect storm of mistakes for UNC to lose that game and unfortunately they all happened. I suspect we will see Elijah with 22-25 carries against the Dawgs though and that has to happen
 
Decided to go the somewhat conservative route as I just locked in

UNC +375
UM +210

That way as long as one wins the coastal I am guaranteed +1.1 return at worst (Miami) and +2.75 return on the Heels if they take it.

Both of these numbers are gonna drop in my opinion so locking in the high value strategic play now vs waiting as I don't see these getting any better.
 
carolinablue said:
Decided to go the somewhat conservative route as I just locked in

UNC +375
UM +210

That way as long as one wins the coastal I am guaranteed +1.1 return at worst (Miami) and +2.75 return on the Heels if they take it.

Both of these numbers are gonna drop in my opinion so locking in the high value strategic play now vs waiting as I don't see these getting any better.
Click to expand...

BOL this year and Go Heels. Kaaya has a lot to prove and so do the 'Canes. If I had a dollar for every time we heard Miami was back only to not be back, I'd have enough to buy us both a couple of beers over at NoDa on Tryon.
 
Added

Ohio to win MAC East +300

BGSU has a brutal road conference schedule at Toledo, NIU and Akron plus the Bobcats get them at home for homecoming.

Also like that Akron has to come to ohio at end of season in a game that could determine the division winner.

I expect this one to start dropping as well.
 
Last one just played

Navy +550 to win AAC West

Houston has three tough conference road games while Navy really got dealt a winnable hand schedule wise and I think they could upset the Cougars when they meet in Annapolis as Houston's schedule is loaded inside and out this year.
 
Totally agree with ya there but when you look at the schedule and talent of the teams in the coastal I would be surprised if one of the others besides the Heels or Canes take the division.

Probably true about NoDa but not so much if we are talking my neck of the woods in 28277 territory haha.
 
MTSU looks like the big value to me.

Also, Nebraska will have the highest pr of anyone on that side of the big. Have not analyzed schedule but that would make them appealing to me at that number assuming there is no huge disparity between them, iowa and wiscy
 
Actually 375 not 370 haha. Was at BOL this whole time as I posted the copy and paste yesterday up top. I locked mine in at 11:56:03 to be exact.
 
clowncar said:
MTSU looks like the big value to me.

Also, Nebraska will have the highest pr of anyone on that side of the big. Have not analyzed schedule but that would make them appealing to me at that number assuming there is no huge disparity between them, iowa and wiscy
Click to expand...

iowa again has a joke of a schedule. neb goes to wisky, ohio st, iowa, and nw.
 
clowncar said:
MTSU looks like the big value to me.

Also, Nebraska will have the highest pr of anyone on that side of the big. Have not analyzed schedule but that would make them appealing to me at that number assuming there is no huge disparity between them, iowa and wiscy
Click to expand...

I think Marshall has the schedule advantage out of the Big 3 in the East as I would really like MTSU if they were in the West as the conference is pretty unbalanced in my opinion.

I just don't see how they leap frog Marshall and WKU in the East as Marshall gets MTSU and WKU at home and really only one conference challenge on the road in SMiss.
 
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