Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
Let's go bowling!!!
I'm going to use this one thread throughout the bowl season. All plays &/or analysis will be in here, for clarity's sake. In fact, it might be a good idea in most cases, because the CFB forum will be busy enough w/out a separate thread for each & every game. But to each his own...
With the lines out already, i jumped on two games tonight. By no means am i done with these two games...just wanted to get a head start with them. But for the most part...i'm gonna take my time evaluating the matchups, watching the lines movements, and capping these babies...as there's no reason to rush into things too early. (Unless there's a beauty of a line now, that is.)
Here are my first two plays of the bowl season...though i definitely will be heavying up on these in the near future as well.
Rose Bowl, January 1
Michigan (-2.5) over USC (+110) for 3 units
First off, don't be giving the Trojans home field advantage. The Rose Bowl is not their home...and even though SoCal is, they have not had much success in the Rose Bowl of late. Most recent examples would be Texas and UCLA, their last two trips. Also, on that front, it's not like Michigan (or any other Big 10 powerhouse for that matter) is a complete stranger to the Rose Bowl come January. And UM will travel well.
Also, forget the thought of one team or the other having a letdown. Even if it's partially true, both these teams are in the exact same emotional boat...since both had very real aspirations for the title game.
So, the matchup. Look at the numbers...two very evenly matched teams, on both sides of the ball. But this was supposed to be USC's rebuilding year on offense. And at least offensively, it can be argued that they overacheived for much of the year. But what troubled the Trojan offense this year? Aggressive defenses that got to, pressured, and disrupted the QB. Oregon St, despite their many flaws, did that. (And you gotta at least give their defense some credit for the turnovers they created, and the early lead it helped them build.) UCLA, also despite their flaws on offense, did that too...with a very under-rated defense. Well, UM doesn't have an under-rated defense...but they have a magnificent front seven, and they will most assuredly put pressure on the QB. They will also take away any running game USC hopes to establish, which wasn't all that much to begin with. So the onus will be directly on young Booty's shoulders. And he's not going to have the time he's used to getting in the Pac 10, or that he got from Notre Dame. Also, one difference between USC and Ohio St to note. Even though USC has two great receivers...and the UM secondary was torched by the Buckeye receivers...they are not burners. Meaning USC's two excellent receivers are not going to be blowing by anyone on UM. They will have some success, no doubt...but it'll be due to their receiving strengths, not blazing speed.
Anyways, i'll get into this game much more between now and January 1st, but that's a good start for the discussion. I will say this...once all the bowls are over, Michigan will again be able to claim they're the #2 team in the country...to Ohio St.
Fiesta Bowl, January 1
Oklahoma (-8.5) over Boise St (-105) for 3 units
I'l get into this in more detail later too...but here's the short version. I expect neither team to come in let down (in any way) to be in this bowl...as both should be fired up. But this boils down to what i perceive as a complete mis-match. The Big 12 Champ versus the WAC Champ. I think we'll again see the disparity in talent, across the board.
Also, Boise St is a completely different (much lessor) team away from home, and that blue smurf turf. Just see how they squeaked by in some of their road games this year...for example, the trip to face the mighty San Jose St Spartans, where they escaped with a narrow win.
You get Boise St away from home, and do a decent job at limiting their running game, and they are ripe for an ass kicking. Then throw in the overall disparity in talent, and Oklahoma's excellent running game...well, it looks like the potential for a serious blowout, imo.
Well, this is jsut the beginning. Hopefully we'll all enjoy a very profitable bowl season, over the course of the three weeks.
BTW...the UM/USC line will get bet down. Hoping i can double up whenever it bottoms out. The OU line though is only gonna climb.
Happy capping, boys & girls. :cheers:
I'm going to use this one thread throughout the bowl season. All plays &/or analysis will be in here, for clarity's sake. In fact, it might be a good idea in most cases, because the CFB forum will be busy enough w/out a separate thread for each & every game. But to each his own...
With the lines out already, i jumped on two games tonight. By no means am i done with these two games...just wanted to get a head start with them. But for the most part...i'm gonna take my time evaluating the matchups, watching the lines movements, and capping these babies...as there's no reason to rush into things too early. (Unless there's a beauty of a line now, that is.)
Here are my first two plays of the bowl season...though i definitely will be heavying up on these in the near future as well.
Rose Bowl, January 1
Michigan (-2.5) over USC (+110) for 3 units
First off, don't be giving the Trojans home field advantage. The Rose Bowl is not their home...and even though SoCal is, they have not had much success in the Rose Bowl of late. Most recent examples would be Texas and UCLA, their last two trips. Also, on that front, it's not like Michigan (or any other Big 10 powerhouse for that matter) is a complete stranger to the Rose Bowl come January. And UM will travel well.
Also, forget the thought of one team or the other having a letdown. Even if it's partially true, both these teams are in the exact same emotional boat...since both had very real aspirations for the title game.
So, the matchup. Look at the numbers...two very evenly matched teams, on both sides of the ball. But this was supposed to be USC's rebuilding year on offense. And at least offensively, it can be argued that they overacheived for much of the year. But what troubled the Trojan offense this year? Aggressive defenses that got to, pressured, and disrupted the QB. Oregon St, despite their many flaws, did that. (And you gotta at least give their defense some credit for the turnovers they created, and the early lead it helped them build.) UCLA, also despite their flaws on offense, did that too...with a very under-rated defense. Well, UM doesn't have an under-rated defense...but they have a magnificent front seven, and they will most assuredly put pressure on the QB. They will also take away any running game USC hopes to establish, which wasn't all that much to begin with. So the onus will be directly on young Booty's shoulders. And he's not going to have the time he's used to getting in the Pac 10, or that he got from Notre Dame. Also, one difference between USC and Ohio St to note. Even though USC has two great receivers...and the UM secondary was torched by the Buckeye receivers...they are not burners. Meaning USC's two excellent receivers are not going to be blowing by anyone on UM. They will have some success, no doubt...but it'll be due to their receiving strengths, not blazing speed.
Anyways, i'll get into this game much more between now and January 1st, but that's a good start for the discussion. I will say this...once all the bowls are over, Michigan will again be able to claim they're the #2 team in the country...to Ohio St.
Fiesta Bowl, January 1
Oklahoma (-8.5) over Boise St (-105) for 3 units
I'l get into this in more detail later too...but here's the short version. I expect neither team to come in let down (in any way) to be in this bowl...as both should be fired up. But this boils down to what i perceive as a complete mis-match. The Big 12 Champ versus the WAC Champ. I think we'll again see the disparity in talent, across the board.
Also, Boise St is a completely different (much lessor) team away from home, and that blue smurf turf. Just see how they squeaked by in some of their road games this year...for example, the trip to face the mighty San Jose St Spartans, where they escaped with a narrow win.
You get Boise St away from home, and do a decent job at limiting their running game, and they are ripe for an ass kicking. Then throw in the overall disparity in talent, and Oklahoma's excellent running game...well, it looks like the potential for a serious blowout, imo.
Well, this is jsut the beginning. Hopefully we'll all enjoy a very profitable bowl season, over the course of the three weeks.
BTW...the UM/USC line will get bet down. Hoping i can double up whenever it bottoms out. The OU line though is only gonna climb.
Happy capping, boys & girls. :cheers:
