Carolinablue Week 8 Plays and Discussion

GL this week CB - great grab on the early line with Buffalo.

Damn nice bet on the Nevada ML too - didn't see that game coming.
 
daytonavol said:
Saw your ML wager on Nevada in another thread; great damn insight, and have never beem pulling for a team harder in my life; should have come thru, good bet and bad beat.
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haha, its ok, it was just a free play over at 5dimes, so no harm no foul, although I have to admit it would have been sweet to pull that one out. Watching that one does give me tremendous respect for all the guys who do the ML dog thing week in and week out as I just don't know how their blood pressure can take all that stress!
 
lindetrain said:
Did you buy the hook down to -0.5 on Ball State? If so, can I ask why?
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Great question, I did it to make it a ML play rather than a -1 play, as I wager enough these days to where it is a big difference between a push and a win. Therefore for me personally, it is worth 10 cents as insurance b/c the ROI makes it worth it. Again, solid question, as most would disagree with my philosophy, but everyone is different and my philosophy has worked for me over the years as I have gotten enough wins where others have gotten pushes, that it makes the ROI worthwhile (Yes, I have done the analysis haha). Congrats again on the great season your Wildcats are having by the way and best of luck this week!
 
CB-

Just realized that for one of the first times, we're on the same page. Just did a writeup on Troy in my thread, which I absolutely love. Also liking Buffalo and UL Monroe.

BOL. :shake:
 
cb - Even though I'm already on FAU, I was hoping I could get your input on them this week. Definitely liking a much improved FAU team to get revenge on ULL. FAU has had a much tougher schedule to this point, and has played well thus far.

Great job last week bro! GL! :cheers:
 
Why ark state? whee is there advantage? thanks cb

your write up on ulm is solid,, it makes complete sense, now just need them to do it.
 
TheCashMan said:
Why ark state? whee is there advantage? thanks cb

your write up on ulm is solid,, it makes complete sense, now just need them to do it.
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Cash - I don't have Arkie State this week, so a little confused by your question. That one is a toss up so definitely a no play for me.
 
My bad i had seen this:
Arkie State - lean at anything around a FG or less either way

didnt read the whole paragraph
 
TheCashMan said:
My bad i had seen this:
Arkie State - lean at anything around a FG or less either way

didnt read the whole paragraph
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No sweat Cash. This week I figured I would post my thought process as I moved from early leans to short list to actual plays, as I have gotten some msgs from guys asking if I could do this so that they can see how I narrow plays down. Next week I will make sure I am more clear so there is no confusion.
 
Aztec4Life said:
cb - Any opinion on FAU @ ULL this week?

Thanks bro.

:cheers:
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Actually I think you have a solid play with FAU, especially if you got it at 6 or 6.5 vs the 7 it is currently sitting at. There were a few reasons why I decided to stay off this one, but that doesn't mean I think you are on the wrong side. I hate laying more than 3 or so points on the road (unless it is a FIU fade) in the sunbelt because it is so unpredictable, so that is the first reason I hesitated on this one.

Secondly, the fact that FAU is only 86th against the run made me a little nervous, as ULL's QB is fun to watch because he does a great job of creating positive yardage when it looks like he has nowhere to go. That helter skelter kind of play could result in a closer than expected game, so it made me even more hesitant.

Now, that was balanced somewhat by the fact that ULL can't stop the pass, and the passing game is where the Owls are gonna eat the Cajuns alive, but man, FAU can't stop the pass either, so my fear was that a couple fluke passes would result in big gains and a possible backdoor cover, and I didn't wanna fall victim to this guy...:moose:

Sorry about the random placement of the moose in my reply, but my wife requested it, so what could I do but oblige haha.

Best of luck this weekend!
 
GL this week CB, nice job you are doing this year. Glad you took Temple instead of New Mex. State. on that dog ML play. Terrible beat for New Mex. St. ML backers at the end of that one.
 
Thanks Tim, appreciate you taking the time out to post those words.

Does anyone checking out the thread have any thoughts on the NW/EMU Over 58.5 (Greek). I am leaning this way, but a little hesitant b/c I am thinking it is either going to sail over (something like a 42-26 type of score) or it will be something just under (like 35-17). Interested in hearing what you guys think on this one. EMU seems to score a ton at Ford Field, as they have sailed over each of their past 4 times there, but not sure this Eagles team has the ability to put points on the board like Eastern teams of year's past.
 
carolinablue said:
BALL STATE PK at Western Michigan

This one for me comes down to Ball State's rushing game vs WMU rushing defense or lack thereof. Ball State is known as a high powered offense, but they live and die by their running game, as it allows them to set up the pass and put those big numbers on the board. When teams shut down their rushing attack, they just aren't able to fire on all cylinders from an offensive standpoint, so this is a great matchup for them, b/c WMU has one of the bottom 10 rushing defenses in the country. It also helps that WMU's pass defense is average at best, whole Ball State has a pretty decent pass defense that should hold up fairly well against WMU's potent passing game. I like to play on teams that win the turnover margin battle, and this is an area where Ball State has a definitive edge, and this will be key in what is otherwise a pretty evenly matched contest. The other factor which will be crucial in this one is the ability to convert on 3rd down. Ball State is one of the best in the country, as they convert on over 52% of their 3rd downs, and I look for this to be the other key point that tilts things in their favor in this crucial conference matchup.
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I hate to see you on Ball St here; I was loving W Mich.

Ball St lost their starting RB Lewis for the season due to a knee injury.

WMU led the nation with 24 INTs last season, have they deteriorated that much?

This is WMU's homecoming game, and they hold a 1-game lead over Ball St in the division (not sure what a 1-game lead means, but I figured I'd put it in here).
 
Blue_Chip said:
I hate to see you on Ball St here; I was loving W Mich.

Ball St lost their starting RB Lewis for the season due to a knee injury.

WMU led the nation with 24 INTs last season, have they deteriorated that much?

This is WMU's homecoming game, and they hold a 1-game lead over Ball St in the division (not sure what a 1-game lead means, but I figured I'd put it in here).
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Thanks BC. I was basing my comments on the fact that Edmonds has been the one carrying the load the past 3 games (leading the team with 5 rushing TDs) as Lewis hasn't been a factor since before the Buffalo game. Even though Edmonds is a freshman, I think he doesn't represent a big drop off in the backfield at all. It is just a matter of him being healthy and getting support from the OL in this one. Should be a fun one to watch, so just hope it is on gameplan or the MAC game of the week here on the local station. Best of luck this week!
 
Sorry, forgot about your other question...

Ball State has 18 TD passes and only 3 INTs on the year (WMU 16/9). WMU has intercepted 6 passes this year while Ball State has nabbed 9 INTs. Not sure why they aren't producing in the secondary like they have in year's past, but it does appear that there is a significant drop off vs last year as they are on pace to only get about half the number of INTs they got last year.
 
Okay, after last week's experiment, I think I may be hooked on the whole ML dog thing, but am interested in what you guys think about the short list I have for these this week. Not sure if I will play and of these or not, just looking over the card from a value and ROI standpoint right now and these are the ones with solid ROI that I think could actually have a shot at hitting.

Indiana +260
Temple +210
Stanford +380
SJSU +400
Kentucky +230
Iowa +230
Miami +210
BGSU +200
ULL +200

All comments appreciated as you guys really helped me think through things last week with these.
 
Cb Congrats on a big week last ...
And congrats on that Buffalo play . Looks like the number is now 3 1/2.
Your sunbelt plays look good.
I would say UlaLa has a decent ML play.
Miami could beat FSU . Looks like a coin flip to me whenever those two play.
I will have a Fresno ticket ATS so I can't endorse SJSU. I stay away from or fade teams that lose OT in their previous game. And that was a tuff loss for SJSU.
GL
 
Very nice line with Troy. Sitting close to 20 right now, so you look golden. GL with your plays this week.
 
CB - good or bad for us that Bob is on Troy? I managed to get 12 units down before he hit it (I was expecting him to - line was definitely low), SO it is definitely my biggest play of the season. Can't wait to find out what happens on Sat.
 
Along with rambleon's point, is it worth at any point trying to middle the troy game?

it's at -21.5 at the greek right now.
 
Well CB

I dont think I could do Temple. The last time they won back to back games was 2002, I dont even know when they won back to back to back. Miami is on a 3 game streak of their own and I wouldnt be able to lean either way.



I would feel more comfortable with Indiana if I was betting ML from that list. Penn state had a great win last week and now travel to Indiana and are 0-2 on the road. Indiana 3-1 at home is off that bad loss to Michigan St. .

Other Mls I am looking at you may like are:
Kansas St +125
Virginia+165
Buffalo +140
T Tech +135

good Luck with whatever you go with
 
Thanks for all the responses guys. Caught an early flight back, so definitely good to be home as the airport was a mess in Chicago with all the delays due to the wind the last 24hrs, crazy stuff.

Decided to lay off the ML plays this week as I don't want to drift away from what has been working so well for me the past few years. Now of course they will all hit, but not gonna even think about it. Which means, if they all hit, no one better say one word or else I will go crazy haha.
 
RambleOn said:
CB - good or bad for us that Bob is on Troy? I managed to get 12 units down before he hit it (I was expecting him to - line was definitely low), SO it is definitely my biggest play of the season. Can't wait to find out what happens on Sat.
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Since my plays are always locked and loaded long before Bob moves the lines, he is irrelevant to me to be totally honest. I do think that his record the last few years is solid so just based on his historical averages alone, he is due for a big week, which I am sure he will scream from the rooftops about when it happens haha.
 
frankiegotti said:
Along with rambleon's point, is it worth at any point trying to middle the troy game?

it's at -21.5 at the greek right now.
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FG - To be honest, I have never middled a game ever, but from a strategy standpoint, I could understand why someone would consider if it they had a line that gave them key large spread numbers like 17, 18, 20, 21 to play with. With that said, I am probably the worst person to ask about middling since I don't have any personal experience with it unfortunately. Sorry I couldn't help out more with that one.
 
DJ Tanner said:
Well CB

I dont think I could do Temple. The last time they won back to back games was 2002, I dont even know when they won back to back to back. Miami is on a 3 game streak of their own and I wouldnt be able to lean either way.



I would feel more comfortable with Indiana if I was betting ML from that list. Penn state had a great win last week and now travel to Indiana and are 0-2 on the road. Indiana 3-1 at home is off that bad loss to Michigan St. .

Other Mls I am looking at you may like are:
Kansas St +125
Virginia+165
Buffalo +140
T Tech +135

good Luck with whatever you go with
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Good to have you in the thread DJ. Is your name a subtle full house reference by the way, just wonderin haha.

I actually had a lean on Temple at +7 but I thought too hard about it, and pretty soon the line had lost all value, as that line is long gone now. Decided to lay off the ML plays as it was fun hitting the +360 last week and coming 1 or 2 plays from hitting the Nevada +1450 or whatever I had, but at the end of the day, I am just not a ML dog type of guy. I will leave those to the experts, as we have plenty of them on this great site.

Solid contribution to the thread, thanks for taking the time to post your thoughts!
 
smo1a said:
Very nice line with Troy. Sitting close to 20 right now, so you look golden. GL with your plays this week.
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Yeah, since I think I was the first person on here to lock that play in, I will either look like a genius or a moron by game's end haha.
 
haha yes Carolina its a Full House reference and it's been my DJ name in Philly for about 4 years.

What do you think about Tenn giving a point to alabama, I'm leaning towards Tenn but not sure I can pull the trigger
 
Man, that OU game was brutal to watch as that cover never had a chance. Solid effort by ISU in that one and a bad call on my part as I underestimated their heart today.

Great win and cover by Ball State as that was a play that many here on the board disagreed with me on, so I kinda felt like I was on an island with that one, but it was a back and forth game as I expected with Ball State pulling it out in the end in a nice cover.

Buffalo has been painful to watch so far as the Orange are dominating that game in every facet for the most part. The Bulls had a good game plan in the first quarter with Starks but they pretty much imploded in the last 4 mins of that one as that big pass they gave up when they had the Cuse backed up on their own 3 was a heart breaker. Of course the fumble on the kick return just added insult to injury. The good thing though is that there is still a half to play and the Cuse should follow their usual form of collapsing in the second half so all hope is not lost on this play.

Troy is taking care of business as I expected. That's why I locked that one in on Sunday evening as soon as the line came out. Just need them to stay focused in the second half and go for the jugular, which I fully expect them to do as they are definitely the cream of the crop in the Sunbelt.

ULM kicks off at 7pm.
 
Buffalo was pretty much dominated by the Cuse today so gotta give credit to the Cuse backers as the scoreboard didn't really do justice to the domination by the Orange. Buffalo had tons of chances in the red zone, but the Cuse had the game in hand most of the way as their OL just punished the heck out of Buffalo. Nice call by Cuse backers as that was definitely the right side today.
 
WEEK 8 RECAP
BALL STATE WINNER
BUFFALO LOSER
TROY WINNER
OKLAHOMA LOSER
ULM WINNER

3-2 RECORD FOR WEEK 8 (+0.7 UNITS) and 36-25 YEAR TO DATE (+7.44 UNITS)

Another profitable week as the money keeps coming in, so can't complain, as this has been one crazy season. Those who have known me for a while, know that I am not one to get into all the flashy stuff as I am pretty low key when it comes to this stuff. My number one goal in this game is making money, but I try to help as many out along the way while I am doing so, because this isn't a zero sum game. My helping others make money in no way affects my profit, so at the end of the day if we can all make money together, that is a good thing as there is plenty of profit to go around for everyone.

Congrats to all who jumped on board the 3 under the radar winners in Troy, ULM, and Ball State, as those were definitely plays that weren't on anyone's radar screen last Sunday evening when the opening lines came out.

Already starting on my week 9 work so looking forward to another profitable week as the profit just keeps rolling in week after week.
 
During cbb, some guys said it was helpful for them to see how I handled my money management during that crazy run when I went something like 25-5 or whatever it was, so here is a look into what I am doing on cfb as we speak...Hope this helps a few guys out.

Just put in a withdrawal request at 5dimes a few minutes ago so that I can bank some of the profit I have already made this season. A big part of my money management strategy is to bank profit when I hit certain levels so that I don't burn it off carelessly. In my view, the money is only truly mine when I move it from their account into mine as it is very easy to let that profit slip away if it isn't banked when certain milestones are reached.

In the case of 5dimes, I am basically withdrawing about 2/3 of my current account balance, which equates to a 1.6x return on my initial deposit there back in August. This will leave me with .8x of my initial deposit still left in my account. Said another way, my account is currently at 2.4x of my initial 5dimes deposit, so it is time for me to bank a sizeable chunk of that profit and leave enough in their to still play with, but now I have the security of knowing the profit will be in my hands with no chance of me losing it during a bad run over the last few weeks.
 
counselor said:
Damn! Wish I could have found -12 on ULM somewhere....
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That was a 12 120 play at 5dimes as noted in my plays post from last Sunday evening around 9pm. They opened that one at 12.5 110 even though the Greek had it at 13 110 so it was a no brainer for me to go with 5 Dimes for that one. In the end it really didn't matter as the line drifted between 12.5 and 13.5 all week so everyone should have walked away happy with the 14pt victory. Kinda like the Troy game which I jumped on at open when it was 17 110 and then by the end of the week it had gotten as high as 24 110 if I remember correctly from Rex's post. Again, everyone cashed no matter what line they got as Troy was obviously the superior team over NT yesterday.
 
TroyStacks said:
good work really liked syracuse at -3 but your number wasn't bad either
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Nice job waiting out the Cuse line Troy as you were definitely on the right side of that one as they were the better team yesterday by far. Great rebound day for ya yesterday. Best of luck in the home stretch!
 
thanks cb what you looking at for this week? i ahev a few thoughts i am creating a post now so if you could write in some early thoughts that'd be great keep it up bro
 
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