Carolinablue Week 8 Plays and Discussion

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 7 was a solid one, as I went 5-2-1 for +2.8 units

Confirmed Year to Date Record is 33-23 +6.74 units

Moved the record to 11-1-1 on road favs of 3.5pts or more as WMU pushed and Rutgers won.

WEEK 8 PLAYS (All plays at The Greek unless otherwise noted)
BUFFALO +6.5 120
BALL STATE -0.5 120
TROY -16.5 120
OKLAHOMA -28 110
ULM -12 120 (at 5 dimes)
 
Last edited:
Great job last week CB. Keep it up man. Ill be checkin in throughout the week
 
Okay, more than likely my plays will come from the following list of updated leans...Won't really be looking at the rest of the card since these are the only matchups that have passed the first cut, unless of course a line is way off vs what I am expecting.

Troy - anything reasonable say 16.5 or less
ULM - anything around 6 or less
Oklahoma - will give it consideration at 21 or less
Texas - will give it consideration at 21 or less
Cincy - hoping for under a TD
Ball State - would probably lean strongly up to a small fav line
Arkie State - lean at anything around a FG or less either way
Buffalo - lean at anything around a FG
Houston - hoping for under 2 TDs here
Toledo - hoping for a pk, but like up to about 3 or so
<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Thanks guys, appreciate all the words. Slow and steady wins the race. May not be flashy, but at the end of the day, all that matters is whether or not you bring home the profit. Can't wait till the week 8 lines are released in a few hours.
 
Both those OU and Texas line hopes are far too low. Those will be closer to 28 each.

But I think those are still good.

Texas has covered against Baylor a rediculous number of times in a row.

OU is #4 now with a shot at the MNC but has to jump at least 2 undefeateds or get help. Getting a weak ISU team this week that just got beat by 54 by Texas. OU will also beat up on ISU and the line will be between 28-35 at open.
 
RJ Esq said:
Both those OU and Texas line hopes are far too low. Those will be closer to 28 each.

But I think those are still good.

Texas has covered against Baylor a rediculous number of times in a row.

OU is #4 now with a shot at the MNC but has to jump at least 2 undefeateds or get help. Getting a weak ISU team this week that just got beat by 54 by Texas. OU will also beat up on ISU and the line will be between 28-35 at open.
Click to expand...


That's why they are "hopes" haha. I am a realist as I know that both will probably be in the 24-27 range if I had to guess so I will probably lay off both at that price, but not sure yet.

I fully expect my plays to be an under the radar player's dream as it will probably end up being 2 Sunbelt schools and 2 MAC schools with a 1-AA play thrown in for good measure haha.
 
At the las vegas line openers: there are several appetizing:

Cincinatti -9.5
Houston -14
Oklahoma -28
Texas -26
Troy -21.5
ULM: Unlisted thus far
Ball State +1.5
Arkansas State +3
Buffalo +6
Toledo +3

Several decent ones.
 
Thanks FG. If those lines end up coming out at the Greek, the only ones I would probably jump on would be Buffalo and Ball State. Maybe Cincy and/or Houston, but they are borderline at those numbers. The rest are where I was expecting them to be, which means too high/not enough for my tastes.
 
I'd be on both OU and Texas at those prices.

Posted this for Jump (every odd year is in Waco):

rjurewitz (2:36:58 PM): Texas v. Baylor
rjurewitz (2:37:02 PM): 2006 Austin
rjurewitz (2:37:05 PM): 63-31
rjurewitz (2:37:16 PM): 2005 62-0
rjurewitz (2:37:22 PM): 2004 44-14
rjurewitz (2:37:26 PM): 2003 56-0
rjurewitz (2:37:30 PM): 2002 41-0
rjurewitz (2:37:35 PM): 2001 49-10
rjurewitz (2:37:42 PM): 2000 48-14
rjurewitz (2:37:47 PM): 1999 62-0
 
Great info, thanks for the heads up! Guess I shouldn't be scared of that type of line when I saw first hand in the game yesterday just how much of a mess Baylor is right now. Do you think Texas is the stronger play of the two or would you say they are equally strong?
 
I know Texas better so I favor Texas more. And I know that OU will not have as much value after TT and Texas destroyed them.

I expect OU line to be closer to 35.
 
Based on the LVSC openers posted by Jump, here is what I would be on...

Buffalo (if 6, it is solid value as I see this one being 3 or 4 either way)
Ball State (I think Ball State wins SU to be honest)
Kansas (would have to take my shot if this opens at 3 or less)
Cincy (a definite maybe as their D should be good for a couple scores)
 
By Adam Lucas<O:p</O:p
So this is how it's going to be. <O:p</O:p
Saturday afternoon any time before 3:30, it was possible to drive down Interstate 40, get off at exit 273, negotiate the traffic on Highway 54, find a parking spot, and walk right into the future. <O:p</O:p

Saturday was a place where men walked down the middle of 54--between lanes of cars--holding a cell phone in one hand and a sign that read "Need Tickets" in the other. It was a place where a hand-printed sign reading, "Need South Carolina Football Tickets," and listing a phone number had been placed on a telephone pole three days ago. It was a place where bands played and tailgaters partied and even students who didn't like football were going to the game because, well, that's what everybody was doing. <O:p</O:p

Kenan Stadium crackled Saturday afternoon. Heck, the whole town crackled. You couldn't walk down <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
><st1:Street w:st=
<st1:address w:st="on">Franklin Street</st1:address></st1:Street> without feeling it. <O:p></O:p>
Remember that feeling. That's what Butch Davis is making <ST1:pChapel Hill</ST1:pl into. No one is saying it has to be that way every day. It doesn't. But it's going to be that way six or seven Saturdays per year. <O:p</O:p

Steve Spurrier is in his third season at <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pSouth Carolina</ST1:p</st1:State>. He has three recruiting classes in his program. What we heard this week, what was constantly beaten into our heads, was that he had built <st1:State w:st="on"><ST1:pSouth Carolina </ST1:p</st1:State>into big-time football. They are sellout crowds and passion and a top-10 ranking. Let's accept for a moment that all of those things are true. If they are all true, then where does that leave <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City>? <O:p</O:p
Answer: one play away.
<O:p</O:p
Forget about all the bad breaks for a minute. Forget about the near interceptions and the missed catches and the untimely turnovers. Those all happen in the game of football, and there will be a game down the line in which <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> is the beneficiary of all of them. They even out, so forget about them.
<O:p</O:p

Don't forget about this: despite all of the above, Carolina had the ball 31 yards from the end zone with 11 seconds to play and a chance to win the game. They were the ones who controlled the second half. They were the ones who were going to determine the game's victor.

<!-- STORY AD BEGINS HERE -->Here is Greg Little. Maybe you didn't notice him until last week, when he had a thunderous run against <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pMiami </ST1:p</st1:City>and suddenly appeared to be a legitimate college football player rather than a high schooler trying to keep up at an advanced level. Against the Gamecocks, he missed a potential huge touchdown catch in the corner of the end zone with six minutes remaining. "I have to make that play," he said. "I just lost it in the lights." Butch Davis was the first person to greet him on the sideline. <O:p</O:p
"Forget about that play," he said. "You're going to win the game for us."
<O:p</O:p
Little very nearly did. On <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City>'s very next drive, just two minutes later, Johnny White took a dump pass 33 yards over the middle. As he was going down, the ball was stripped in a posse of Gamecock defenders. Suddenly, there was Little, diving head-first on the ball to preserve a drive and give the Tar Heels a chance to win. <O:p</O:p

The freshman really had no reason to be there, except that he thought he might have a chance to level a big block and earn White a couple extra yards. Imagine that, a true freshman receiver who wants to block in the game's final minutes. "I've been coached this year that whatever happens, turn and get a block downfield," Little said. "I was trying to get a block downfield, saw the ball was dropped, and I dove on it." <O:p</O:p

Two plays later, <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> scored. All because a freshman believed what his coaches have been telling him this season, believed that he could make a difference and that an extra burst of effort might make something happen.
<O:p</O:p
The young guys have to believe it. That's what keeps them coming to practice every day. Most of them came from winning high school programs and the losses are new. But there's one of the young guys who already has experience with a winning college program. Cornerback Kendric Burney, who spends most of his Saturdays with his hands in his pockets because opponents rarely throw to his side of the field, played with the Carolina baseball team that finished second in the nation this spring. He wasn't on the postseason roster but made the trip to <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pOmaha </ST1:p</st1:City>just for the postseason experience. He already sees some of the winning characteristics he saw first-hand at Boshamer Stadium creeping down <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Stadium Drive</st1:address></st1:Street> to the <ST1:p<st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Kenan</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceName w:st="on">Football</st1:PlaceName> <st1:PlaceType w:st="on">Center. </st1:PlaceType>"The trust issue is the biggest similarity I've seen us gain," he said. "For a team to win, you have to have trust. And right now we trust each other every single week."

<O:p<st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:pla</st1:City>'s older players don't necessarily have to have the same belief. They might be down to their last five college football games. They don't have to believe the same way their younger teammates do, because for them the future is measured in weeks instead of years. <O:p</O:p

Listen, though, to what they say. "I'm envious of the younger guys," Kentwan Balmer said. "I'm envious because I'm about to leave and I see what's going to happen. I see the coaches they have and the atmosphere they have."
<O:p</O:p
61,000 people appeared to come to that exact same realization on Saturday. Sometimes a losing <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:place Carolina teamwalks offthe</ST1:p</st1:City>field to stony silence. This time, though, they walked off the field to a rousing ovation, to fans staying in their seats for a few extra seconds to slap their hands together one last time for the group of players who had come one play short.
<O:p</O:p

It was as if all 61,000 realized something at the exact same time: <O:p</O:p
Not too long from now, they're all going to be this way. Excitement and scarce tickets and spine-tingling Saturdays--all of that is coming. It's not here yet, not this year. But it's coming. Every week.
<O:p</O:p

That's not a guarantee that at some point Carolina will acquire the divine right to win all the games like this. There will be more games that come down to that last play, more games that end with players from both teams sprawled in the end zone trying to summon the energy to walk back to the locker room.
<O:p</O:p

There's no predicting how they'll end. Well, maybe that's not right. <O:p</O:p
They will all end this way: with the exhilaration of a Saturday well spent and the anticipation that comes with the knowledge that <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina has</ST1:p</st1:City>a chance to win every game they play, no matter the opponent. Not by good fortune, but by those things that make a winning football program--talent, coaching, and recruiting. And, as Burney said, trust. <O:p</O:p

How long has it been for <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City> football fans since they had the pleasure of going an entire season without even once walking into a stadium thinking, "Boy, we don't have much of a chance in this one"? <O:p</O:p
That season, that type of competitiveness, is <st1:City w:st="on"><ST1:pCarolina</ST1:p</st1:City>'s future. <O:p</O:p

And Saturday, the future got a little closer.<O:p</O:p
<O:p</O:p
 
cb, You guys got a lot of talent.

I am quite impressed with Hakeem Nicks and Brandon Tate. Marvin Austin is going to be a baller, Glen Dorsey part 2.


We are both very young teams, saw that you guys have 42frosh (true and redshirt) of your 84 players.


*edit, Hakeem Nicks is from Independece High in NC, we have a true frosh from there, Jason Barnes who is taking a medical redshirt, I can only hope he is somewhat of the player Nicks has shown to be at this stage of the game
 
Buffalo +6.5 120 and Ball State basically pk at 120 (line was 0.5) are my first two plays.

Saw Buff drop to 4 at BM so decided to jump on it at The Greek while it was still 6.
 
Waiting on the Troy and ULM lines to come out at the Greek. Texas is another one I am waiting on. KU is tempting but would have preferred the 2.5 vs 5 so probably a no play for me as the Buffs seem to have some magic workin for em at home. With that said, if the line hits 4, may be worth a shot as KU is clicking on all cylinders and that line may be too good to pass up, especially with the 11-1-1 run I am on with road favs greater than 3 this season.
 
Very close to pulling the trigger on KU, but going to wait for the first juice move at Pinny to see which way it goes. Kinda surprised it dropped from 5 to 4.5 as I thought for sure it would move towards 6. Hard not to jump on that one, but gonna see what happens with it, plus curious to see where it opens at 5dimes. No more sunbelt games listed on the greek, so not sure what's up there. Hopefully 5dimes gets their games up in the next few mins.

Also not sure why the Texas game is not up yet at the greek.
 
I already got Texas -24' -120 and am just so close to pulling trigger on OU -28.

Where does the line go?
 
frankiegotti said:
i think we are a little ways away from seeing that monroe line as LVSC didn't come out with theirs yet.
Click to expand...


BM had theirs out with the rest of their lines. ULM 12.5 and Troy 17.5, so that is why I was wondering why it wasn't out at Greek or Pinny for that matter.
 
RJ Esq said:
I already got Texas -24' -120 and am just so close to pulling trigger on OU -28.

Where does the line go?
Click to expand...

I am hoping 5dimes opens Texas at 24 instead of 24.5 or 25, as every week 5dimes seems to open a couple of their lines off by 1pt with a correction about 5mins afterwards. Also hoping they open KU at 4. OU is a tough one for me as I was hoping to get a 26.5 as I hate sitting on lines like 24, 27 or 28 in large spread games. I know it doesn't make much sense, but just one of those things I have I guess.
 
I hear ya, CB. I don't mind the pushes though. Either it will win or we'll get a no play out of it.

OU will kill ISU.
 
frankiegotti said:
next year i may test out BM as they have the first lines out and they are solid.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I hear ya. The main reason I didn't give em a shot this year was because I didn't understand why they were charging 60 for fedex checks when everyone else was charging 35. If we are in a different place from a withdrawal processing standpoint next year then I may give em a shot, who knows. I do give em credit for the early lines though as it kills me to see some of those lines come out and all I can do is sit back and wait for The Greek to release theirs. Guess that is why they can charge 60 for withdrawals haha.
 
haha, yea i didn't know they charged 60 for withdrawels. They probally make more money off their check withdrawel fees than their sportsbook.
 
Debating whether I should jump on OU or not as it is sitting at 28 at The Greek while it is 28.5 everywhere else right now.
 
Added TROY -16.5 120 over at the Greek, line finally came out there at 17, which was what I was hoping for, since it is 17.5 everywhere else right now.
 
Added OU -28 110 at the Greek. As soon as I saw it open at 28.5 at 5dimes, I figured I won't see 28 for long as no one else has it there anymore. Since the Greek has been sitting on it for a while, thought it would be smart to just lock it in while I could at that number.
 
Added ULM -12 120 over at 5 Dimes. Only reason I paid the premium was just for insurance purposes because the Sunbelt never seems to adhere to the 7pts per TD rule as there are always missed/blocked xp's thrown in, with multiple FG games, safeties, etc, so don't wanna get screwed on the half point if it ends up some wacky 28-16 final.
 
That's all for sides, unless the KU line drops this week.

Will be keeping an eye out for the following totals, as these may be potential over plays for me depending on the lines...

NW/EMU (over 65 or less would be worth a look)
CLEM/CMU (over low 50's as Clemson should get 40 and CMU at least 17)
BSU/WMU (over 60 or less as I see both teams possibly hitting 30 here)
TxTch/MIZZOU (line will probably be too high, but if less than 70, maybe)
 
Troy -16.5 vs North Texas

North Texas has not proven it can stop the run or pass, as they are rated #116 and #110 respectively in these defensive categories. Troy is an ATS machine, that has a balanced attack that is top 40 in both rushing and passing. North Texas also does a horrible job of taking care of the ball, as I witnessed firsthand when I won with ULL against them 2 weeks ago. They are a mess in terms of protecting the ball, and I fully expect the Troy Trojans, who are #17 in turnover margin, to take full advantage of the Mean Green mistakes. I also like the fact that Troy has been in the red zone 29 times, and converted on 80% of their trips inside the 20, while NT has only been there 16 times, and are converting those trips into scores less than 70% of the time. Troy is on a roll right now and they are my team to beat in the Sunbelt, as they are proving week in and week out that they are the most consistent team in the conference. North Texas got a nice win last week, but that was at home. On the road in the Sunbelt is a whole 'nother story.
 
Looks like Texas opened at 25 at Greek. 24 -120 still available elsewhere.

Good luck this week, CB. Nice line move on Troy.
 
BALL STATE PK at Western Michigan

This one for me comes down to Ball State's rushing game vs WMU rushing defense or lack thereof. Ball State is known as a high powered offense, but they live and die by their running game, as it allows them to set up the pass and put those big numbers on the board. When teams shut down their rushing attack, they just aren't able to fire on all cylinders from an offensive standpoint, so this is a great matchup for them, b/c WMU has one of the bottom 10 rushing defenses in the country. It also helps that WMU's pass defense is average at best, whole Ball State has a pretty decent pass defense that should hold up fairly well against WMU's potent passing game. I like to play on teams that win the turnover margin battle, and this is an area where Ball State has a definitive edge, and this will be key in what is otherwise a pretty evenly matched contest. The other factor which will be crucial in this one is the ability to convert on 3rd down. Ball State is one of the best in the country, as they convert on over 52% of their 3rd downs, and I look for this to be the other key point that tilts things in their favor in this crucial conference matchup.
 
ULM -12 vs Florida International

Now, I know many of you are asking why in the heck would I ever consider laying 12 with a 1-5 team that is coming off a loss to the previously winless North Texas Mean Green? Well, that is actually a good question, so I will give you my reasons with the caveat that this play is definitely not for the faint of heart, nor are many of my under the radar plays, since these are truly the games that no one talks about, but they consistently cash for me year after year, so not gonna stop with em now.

Question..When do you lay 12 with a 1-5 team coming off a loss to lowly North Texas?

Answer...When they are at home playing the 0-6 FIU Panthers, who are the proud owners of an 18 game losing streak, that's when! FIU was completely overwhelmed in their only conf road game so far (6-47 vs MTSU) and I expect more of the same in this one, as FIU can't stop the run (#109) and ULM is gonna run, then run some more, and then run some more, as they have the #16 rushing attack and aren't afraid to use it early and often. Neither team has a passing offense, and to be quite honest, FIU has one of the worst offenses in cfb, as their highest point total this season was 16 in a home game vs Troy.

Now, ULM is 1-5, but let's not forget that they played a brutal early schedule with Tulsa (home), A&M (road), Clemson (road), and Troy (road) as their first four games. Once they returned home, they picked up a nice 17pt win vs a soild Arkie State team before being upset on the road against the Mean Green. That loss actually gives this line some value though as ULM should have been at least 17 point favs in this one IMO. At the end of the day, you have an inept FIU squad going on the road against a ULM team that is looking to take out some frustration on someone. Sorry FIU, but this is the wrong place, wrong time for you guys.
 
BUFFALO +6.5 at Syracuse

This one is pretty much an even matchup of two teams hungry for a win. Cuse gets the nod by a FG or so because they are playing at home, but otherwise this one is a coin flip in my book. The deciding factor for me is the fact that Buffalo has found a consistent running game, and that will pose problems for a Syracuse team that has had their challenges stopping the run so far this year. In terms of athletes, I would say these two are pretty equal, and both teams do an ok job of protecting the football, so I will take my 6.5 in what should be a FG game either way.
 
OKLAHOMA -28 at Iowa State

It's always interesting reading the post game quotes after games like the Texas 56-3 win over ISU. ISU said all the right things, but they also acknowledged that if they don't figure out how to play harder and smarter, they will get blown out by 50 vs OU, and I don't know about you, but I haven't heard any ways a team has figured out how to play harder and smarter in 6 days, so we may see a similar type of game this week in front of the homecoming crowd at ISU. OU knows they need to win and win big the rest of the way to have any chance of influencing the voters as they work their way back up the ranks of the BCS. They can't sleepwalk through this one as they know everyone will be expecting them to win going away. Not sure how ISU will score more than 10 at the most and OU should be good for at least 40, if not 50 in this one. OU is susceptible on the pass defense, but ISU doesn't have the QB to take advantage of this, so not worried there. Also, ISU is horrible at protecting the ball, so I expect at least 1 or 2 defensive or special teams scores in this one as well.
 
Saw your ML wager on Nevada in another thread; great damn insight, and have never beem pulling for a team harder in my life; should have come thru, good bet and bad beat.
 
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