Carolinablue Week 7 Plays and Discussion

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Updated Year to Date Record 28-21 57.1%

All plays at The Greek, unless otherwise noted.
NAVY TEAM TOTAL 2H OVER 14 120 WIN
NORTHWESTERN -6.5 115 LOSS
WESTERN MICHIGAN -4 105 PUSH
AIR FORCE +4 120 WIN
RUTGERS -16 110 WIN
KANSAS -23 115 (5 DIMES) WIN
NW/MINNY 1Q O14 105 LOSS
ECU/UTEP O64 110 (5 DIMES) WIN
 
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Added Rutgers, because I have a feeling this one will get over 17 by night's end, so figured I would lock it in now before the value is lost.

Waiting on 5dimes to open as they are typically off by 1/2 to 1 on at least 2 or 3 lines at every open, so hoping I get some value locking in my remaining 2 to 3 plays there, but we'll see.
 
Northwestern at 7 right now -105. Have to think about that a bit more. I made the line -11 and I'm all about a Minny fade.
 
CB, i would say aren't you eyeing up south carolina but there playing your north carolina guys so it's probally a no play for you.
 
frankiegotti said:
CB, i would say aren't you eyeing up south carolina but there playing your north carolina guys so it's probally a no play for you.
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Haha, you are reading my mind FG...SC is on my short list but I need to get some info this week on a few things from some friends back in Chapel Hill before I make a play on this one.
 
Adding Kansas -23 115 (5 Dimes)

Will give reasons for everything tomorrow night. Up against the clock now as I gotta give the wife some attention starting at 9pm haha.
 
Tell Wifey to start without you, you have work to do...haha.

Kansas has a huge number and I'm concerned about the spot, but I'm looking forward to reading your reasoning.
 
That's all for tonight...Will pick up where I left off tomorrow, as I still have some things to look over on Alabama and UTEP, but one or both of those are the leading candidates to round out the card at this point.
 
I've gotta ask about Air Force.

I know it's a big in-city rivalry, but CSU was embarrassed at home last weekend, this line doesn't worry you a bit?
 
you had to give the wifey some attention at 9 huh? Just come out and say you had to go watch Desparate Housewives. It's ok, we know :)
 
Mags said:
Like them all bro, any thoughts on the SC/NC game?
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That one is going to be a pass for me. ETG did a great write up in his thread and I have tons more to add, but for now all I will say is no play either way for me as there are much better games out there to play this week IMO.
 
carolinablue said:
That one is going to be a pass for me. ETG did a great write up in his thread and I have tons more to add, but for now all I will say is no play either way for me as there are much better games out there to play this week IMO.
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please CB, add to my thread when you get a chance.. Tell me where I am wrong. I would of accepted anything in the SC-10 to -13 range which I consider reasonable for this game. I just can't convince myself that the "smart money" who drove this line down is correct. If this game were on Columbia, I would have played SC up to -16.5
 
slim5150 said:
you had to give the wifey some attention at 9 huh? Just come out and say you had to go watch Desparate Housewives. It's ok, we know :)
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Haha very funny. Actually I am proud to say I have never seen that show, American Idol, Dancing with the Stars and none of those other shows all you guys secretly watch haha. But I do have a guilty pleasure called Degrassi High The Next Generation (on the N). It is a spin off of a series that some of the old timers on the board might remember (Degrassi Jr High) from the 80s. Man, I am ashamed of myself for even admitting that, but I think the whole guilty tv pleasures thread might be one worth starting in general discussoin haha.
 
Leaning towards ULL if it gets to 10 as I think that would be solid value. Won't consider it at the current 9 though as I don't like that number.

Also waiting for totals to come out on Tulsa/Marshall and ECU/UTEP as I am interested in the overs on these if they are somewhat reasonable (ie 70 or less range).

Took Alabama off my short list as my fear is that this one will be decided by a FG or two, so don't wanna risk a 6.5 line.
 
Actually considered NT getting 7 at home but then I woke up and realized I must have been insane to even have that on my short list.
 
i remember Degrassi, the original. I guess that means I am getting old huh?

I was looking at that Marshall total also. I feel comfortable that both of their offenses should produce, and neither defense follow the bend but don't break psychology. Both should get 30, and maybe Marshall is desparate enough to get a win and they can pull it out in the end. Tough thing to do on the road, but in a shootout, who knows.

I would love a 65, but think it will open a bit higher
 
Added NW/MINNY 1Q TOTAL OVER 14 POINTS 105 at The Greek

Now I know that Minny is bad, but they have failed to combine for at least 14 in the first only once this season, as their 1Q totals have been 28, 14, 20, 28, 10 and 14. NW is another team that seems to get out of the gate quickly on offense while also allowing big plays out of the gate on defense early on in games, as their first quarter combined totals as been 19, 17, 28, 14, 14, 7.

I thought about doing the game total, but I hate playing the side and total of the same game as it causes a conflict of interest for me in terms of rooting interest, plus I think the 1st quarter total is where the true value lies as the juice is only 105 for a 14 line which worst case will result in a push IMO. NW has the 67th ranked pass defense, while Minny is ranked 119 out of 119 in defending the pass. Neither team has a strong rushing defense either, as NW is 69th and Minny is 80th. On top of the porous defenses possessed by both teams, they are also both really bad when it comes to turnover margin, as NW is 98th and Minny is 118th. All this adds up to a high octane game in my view, with a projected first quarter total in the 21 to 35 range in this one, so to me over 14 at 105 is solid value.
 
Kansas is up to -25.5. Thats just crazy. I know they score a lot, but still. Baylor can put points on the board, and Kansas may be due for a letdown. To bad it's not -25 or I would be all over it. :D

BOL Carolinablue. :cheers:

Do you have an idea about the low line on Miami. I think after their letdown last week against UNC, they should tear apart the Jackets who have not been impressive in recent weeks. Being 1-3 in conference games and then going on the road for a 2nd straight game for another conference game could really be bad for them. I'm really loving Miami's chances.

And what do you think the odds are that Stanford has a letdown game at home this week? I'm thinking TCU first half would be a great bet because of how they normally shut down the opposing team in the 1st and lose their games in the 2nd.

I would love to know your thoughts bro. Thanks. :shake:
 
askias said:
What are your thoughts on Navy and Pittsburgh, CB?
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No play for me. Pitt is more talented IMO, but they have yet to truly put together 4 solid quarters of football, and their youth and inconsistency makes this one not worth touching in my view so I will lay off and wait till the Saturday games.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
What are your feelings on the Carolina battle?
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No play for me. Sorry I haven't had time to do any writeups..Just trying to answer questions on here in between personal stuff, so don't wanna halfway write anything on that one, as that wouldn't do it justice. I think everyone who got 5.5 or 6 got nice value as I was also expecting closer to 8 or 9, but by the same token, all of Chapel Hill is abuzz about this one and the crowd is gonna be insane so who knows what will happen. If we can establish the run it will take the pressure off TJ, having to go against one of the top pass defenses in the country, and of course that is a big if. I am just gonna sit back and enjoy it and hope for a UNC victory, as I think we have a solid shot at pulling this one out. These teams are actually a little more evenly matched than most might imagine, as the biggest differential IMO is experience not talent.

I think one could make some similarities to the Gamecocks of a few years ago to the Heels of today, and the key of course will be for us to get out to a good start so that the crowd can stay in it the whole way. This one sold out in no time obviously, so no doubt the youngsters will be looking to feed off the energy of the home crowd.

You already touched on the recruiting battle between these two, and also remember that the two coaches may still have a little personal rivalry simmering from back in the day, plus on top of that, don't think we haven't forgotten Spurrier's lack of class when he was back at Duke and did the whole scoreboard posing thing. All of these things are intangibles that could make for a closer game than many believe. I also think Connor Barth might be the wildcard here as his leg gives us a shot at the end as long as we can keep it close, but hopefully he will be kicking more extra points than field goals on Saturday haha.
 
No problem, I hit submit before I was done, so I just finished my thoughts above. Again, sorry for the short on time thing but hope that gives some perspective as to why I am making this one a no play.
 
ADDED EARLIER TODAY: UTEP/ECU OVER 64 110 AT 5DIMES

Here are the press conference quotes from Skip Holtz regarding the upcoming UTEP game. I am a little worried about ECUbeing worn out, which he does touch on, but I think this one will go over behind the arms of both QBs, plus I expect at least 1 or 2 big plays from special teams on both sides of the ball. For you stat guys out there, UTEP is 117th against the pass and ECU is 106th. Both teams are also not that strong against the run either. They also both have defenses that cause a lot of turnovers, so I expect this to be one of those games where whoever has the ball last will come out on top. I actually wouldn't be shocked if it started off slow and then rained points later as 100 combined is not out of the question IMO.

On UTEP:
"This is going to be a heck of a challenge. UTEP has won three-straight and is playing on a high right now. They are scoring a large amount of points with 52, 48 and 48 in their last three games, the last two being against SMU and Tulsa. Their defense is also very athletic. Statistically, they are balanced on offense, averaging 190 yards on the ground and 230 throwing the ball. They have really come into their own as an offensive football team. They are extremely productive in the red zone, about 91 percent successful.


"I think they went through some changes two weeks ago and have five starters on defense out right now, including three defensive linemen and their top corner. They want to make every game a track meet. They don't want to play protective football but want to start scoring points right off of the bus. However, their defense does have nine interceptions on the year. They have given up some yards but have made the stops when they have had to. Their special teams feature some great returners as their free safety is averaging 12 yards on punt returns. That is scary for us with the way our punt and kick coverage teams are playing right now. They not only pose problems on film but also with the travel required to just get there. We have had a physically and emotionally tough six weeks and traveling will take that much more out of us as we go all the way to UTEP.
On Keeping Up With UTEP's High-Scoring Offense:
"When you play a really good offensive football team, you don't necessarily go out trying to stop them as much as try to keep them off the field. We have to control the ball offensively and put up some points early. I said that we are not a complete football team but a big play team. When you look back at our scores at Houston, we hit a long ball with T.J. Lee and Chris Johnson had a big run as well as Jamar Bryant catching a long pass on the sideline. We need to grow up in a hurry and make some first downs while getting rid of the self-inflicted wounds like penalties that kill drives."
 
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Looks like I missed the boat on the AF line move by the way as I honestly thought that one was going to be down at 3 by now, but it is 4 110 everywhere so I wasted some juice when I didn't need to, but hey what can ya do, as sometimes you guess wrong.
 
Originally was going to take the 1st quarter over 14 total in the ECU game, but the travel factor scared me off that one as I think they may come out a little slower due to just being worn down from the last 6 weeks plus travel like coach Skip Holtz points out above. Plus, it seems like this team just gets it going better in the second half as evidenced by the last few weeks, even going back to the game against my Heels.
 
I like that play and also got in early on over 28 for the 2h. Neither of these teams can stop each other. Pitt DL is sitting back on their haunches and are not getting off the ball at all. Their attempts to try and read the option are pathetic. May said it right during the half that they need to run blitz right into those gaps and at least stop the fullback traps that are killing them and make Navy pitch it. GL
 
Too bad they all can't be that easy haha. See you guys on Saturday. Always nice to start the week out with a win.
 
Quick question for you guys...I have a free play to use over at 5dimes, so just wondering if the better strategy is to use it on some ML dogs to see if I can get a big hit, or just play a normal spread play or should I just play it safe with a solid ML fav? I only get to keep the winnings, not the wager amount, so curious to hear what you guys think is the better strategy when you have "free money" like this, thanks!
 
The way to go is definitely ML dog(s)... Gotta make that last, so you can get as much of the original amount as possible, I learned the hard way...lol. I thought it was the same as cash until my excel sheet was waaaaay outta balance. Tragic day....


btw, nice hit on the 2h plays last night. I too was on the over 28' and Navy TT over 14, Actually got the 28' @ +100 at 5dimes.

BOL this weekend CB :cheers:
 
carolinablue said:
don't think we haven't forgotten Spurrier's lack of class when he was back at Duke and did the whole scoreboard posing thing. All of these things are intangibles that could make for a closer game than many believe. I also think Connor Barth might be the wildcard here as his leg gives us a shot at the end as long as we can keep it close, but hopefully he will be kicking more extra points than field goals on Saturday haha.
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Thought you would appreciate this..



SpurriersDuketeambeatsUNCin1989.jpg





:smiley_acbe:
 
carolinablue said:
Quick question for you guys...I have a free play to use over at 5dimes, so just wondering if the better strategy is to use it on some ML dogs to see if I can get a big hit, or just play a normal spread play or should I just play it safe with a solid ML fav? I only get to keep the winnings, not the wager amount, so curious to hear what you guys think is the better strategy when you have "free money" like this, thanks!
Click to expand...

Maybe New Mexico State +260 or so as a thought.
 
Thanks for the input on the free play guys. I might just toss around a few $50 plays on some live dogs to see what happens. Where is Gar when you need him haha.
 
Here are the ones that caught my eye, as I was only looking at ones that were at least +200 or more, with a bias towards those ML dogs that were playing at home since that often times will lend itself better to an upset than if you are a road dog, due to the whole feeding off the crowd thing blah blah blah

ULL +310 - we all know anything can happen in the sunbelt
NT +250 - they can't stop the run, but ULM only has 1 more win haha
UNC +235 - have a shot if they get up early
Vandy +235 - HFA makes this one potentially worth a shot
Stan +205 - TCU on the road is shaky at best
Kentucky +310 - Woodson gives these guys a shot, especially at home
NMSU +260 - pretty evenly matched as LTU is mediocre at best
Mizzou +350 - solid value on a team that finds a way to win each week
A&M +340 - rivalry game, anything can happen, Tech can't stop run

Majority rules, so you guys tell me which ones I should toss this free play on. I will count all posts and PMs in the voting, so speak now or forever hold your peace. You can vote for as few or as many as you like, or you can add one I might have missed above. Just like WWE Cybersunday, this is where YOU have the power!

Keep in mind guys, these will be just bs fun plays for me. 5 dimes doesn't give you the bonuses in cash so you have to use it as a free match play, and since you only keep your winnings and not your wager plus winnings, figure why not take a shot since this is basically play money I have to use up anyway, especially since I am wagering about 1-2 games a week with em at this point, now that the Greek basically gets 90% of my action.
 
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