Carolinablue Week 7 CFB Plays

You knew the FCS plays were coming....First one below, kicks off tonight at 7:30pm. Figured this one would be 14.5, so solid value at 11.5 at BOL.

Thursday
7:30pm NC Central -11.5 120 BOL
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
hope you're right. i hate seeing this kind of mvmt against us.
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Feel like line movement stopped being much a predictor years ago. Kinda like the percentage of plays on team and the sharp/square thing. Look at the movement in fsu/wake! Fsu opened -3 and shot to -7 before coming back down to -6.5. There obviously a group who been hitting fsu, I totally get it, I like where they heading, think Norvell making huge strides and will have them back competing for acc in next 2 years. Travis has made huge strides as a passer and shockingly fsu has the edge in ypp differential which the sharps love. Even popular dogs I try to shy away from I think win at least 50% the time these days. All those old school rules we grew up with have mostly become irrelevant imo. Gotta change with the times! The popular dog still scares me out some winners but I’m working on it!!!


For me matchups are still the number 1 thing for me capping games and I think this a awful matchup for fsu assuming clemson secondary in good health. Noles offense baffled me not being able to score in 2nd and 3rd qrtr on wake! They totally pissed the ncst game away. They not gonna be able to run on clemson, Travis gonna have to be super man avoiding pressure and making plays down field. Tigers allowing less than 2yoc and noles best back banged up! On the other side noles have struggled w running qbs and I think the biggest difference in DJ he slimmed down and been a willing runner which been a huge asset to tigers run game, I’ll be all over DJ rush prop, and his passing improved enough if noles sell out to stop his legs he will beat them. I lost ats w clemson against wake but I’m betting them in all these acc games w short lines, I think I’m gonna take them 14-1 for natty as I think they back fo being the class the acc, didn’t take long!!
 
2daBank said:
Feel like line movement stopped being much a predictor years ago. Kinda like the percentage of plays on team and the sharp/square thing. Look at the movement in fsu/wake! Fsu opened -3 and shot to -7 before coming back down to -6.5. There obviously a group who been hitting fsu, I totally get it, I like where they heading, think Norvell making huge strides and will have them back competing for acc in next 2 years. Travis has made huge strides as a passer and shockingly fsu has the edge in ypp differential which the sharps love. Even popular dogs I try to shy away from I think win at least 50% the time these days. All those old school rules we grew up with have mostly become irrelevant imo. Gotta change with the times! The popular dog still scares me out some winners but I’m working on it!!!

Couldn’t agree more. Buddy and me have this conversation every few weeks…the tweets these guys like Dave Mason at BOL or the Patrick Eversen reports with handles and bets taken, percentages, sharp action blah blah…. its taken us awhile to remove that way of thinking from our discussions because we’ve been doing it for 20+ years..and to be honest, even then it wasn’t that successful! We’ve been so much more successful just putting in the work…looking through some analytics, our own eye-test, and breaking down box scores, etc.
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Nice tenacity by Navy to drive down and cash that team total over.

Great start to week 7 going 3-0 in the weeknight games, so let’s keep it goin as we head into a big Saturday card. Best of luck to everyone this weekend!
 
carolinablue said:
Nice tenacity by Navy to drive down and cash that team total over.

Great start to week 7 going 3-0 in the weeknight games, so let’s keep it goin as we head into a big Saturday card. Best of luck to everyone this weekend!
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Breakthrough week
 
Not seeing any FCS stuff I like so far as I missed the opening 33 on the wofford total. Was going to play it simply on principle kinda like the sacred heart over at 29.5 a few weeks back, but line jumped 2.5 so no play now.
 
Leaning Elon as I think they should take care of business at URI but was hoping to get 3 but came out at -1/-2 so gonna pass
 
Battle of 1 vs 2 should be a fun one and if I had to choose I would take the home team but too close to call so another pass
 
FCS added play

Harvard -13.5 115 BOL

Harvard has had a bunch of close games but I think they finally get a blowout win here as they might run for 400 against the Howard defense. As easy as it was for Yale to run in Howard, Yale should have beaten Howard by at least 20 but turnovers and a garbage score at the end made it seem closer than it was.

Howard will be one dimensional as they won’t be able to run on the Crimson, so as long as Harvard gets back to playing disciplined ball without all the penalties, they should roll Howard.
 
Added
Kansas TT O27 121 MB

Same deal with max limit of only 125 so gonna round out the play elsewhere depending on which has the line
 
carolinablue said:
I need it as we are talking about bringing her parents over from Japan during winter break, so gotta make some Japan to Charlotte airfare money these next few weeks. Spoiler alert…those flights ain’t cheap!
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Would this be the first meeting?
 
I told my fiancé if I clear 10 units this week I would take the family and her parents to Jamaica for Christmas. She got me Kirin, Sapporo, Orion and Asahi this morning and said she is gonna leave me alone to watch football all day in the media room upstairs from 12-12 today haha.
 
Went to see Terrifier 2 last night and she actually asked me after the movie if the Navy team total over had hit yet…that’s marriage material right there my friends!
 
2daBank said:
Feel like line movement stopped being much a predictor years ago. Kinda like the percentage of plays on team and the sharp/square thing. Look at the movement in fsu/wake! Fsu opened -3 and shot to -7 before coming back down to -6.5. There obviously a group who been hitting fsu, I totally get it, I like where they heading, think Norvell making huge strides and will have them back competing for acc in next 2 years. Travis has made huge strides as a passer and shockingly fsu has the edge in ypp differential which the sharps love. Even popular dogs I try to shy away from I think win at least 50% the time these days. All those old school rules we grew up with have mostly become irrelevant imo. Gotta change with the times! The popular dog still scares me out some winners but I’m working on it!!!


For me matchups are still the number 1 thing for me capping games and I think this a awful matchup for fsu assuming clemson secondary in good health. Noles offense baffled me not being able to score in 2nd and 3rd qrtr on wake! They totally pissed the ncst game away. They not gonna be able to run on clemson, Travis gonna have to be super man avoiding pressure and making plays down field. Tigers allowing less than 2yoc and noles best back banged up! On the other side noles have struggled w running qbs and I think the biggest difference in DJ he slimmed down and been a willing runner which been a huge asset to tigers run game, I’ll be all over DJ rush prop, and his passing improved enough if noles sell out to stop his legs he will beat them. I lost ats w clemson against wake but I’m betting them in all these acc games w short lines, I think I’m gonna take them 14-1 for natty as I think they back fo being the class the acc, didn’t take long!!
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I have not heard the final word on Sheridan Jones (sounds like a 60% chance he plays), but everyone else in the secondary will play, plus all starters in the front seven (along with at least 7 of the top 8 backups). This is a big change from the last three weeks.

OL has not had an injury all year and have started the same 5 each game. No notable injuries elsewhere on offense.

One under-the-radar note: Former 5* DE Xavier Thomas played his first football of the season last week. He played just six snaps but had two sacks, two hurries, and a caused fumble.
 
carolinablue said:
Bama now 9.5
Harvard now 16.5
Elon now 4.5, swung and missed there
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Burlington has a special place in my heart. I used to camp in North Carolina and had camp girlfriends from all over the state: Smithfield, Burlington, Jacksonville, Fayetteville, etc
 
M.W. said:
I have not heard the final word on Sheridan Jones (sounds like a 60% chance he plays), but everyone else in the secondary will play, plus all starters in the front seven (along with at least 7 of the top 8 backups). This is a big change from the last three weeks.

OL has not had an injury all year and have started the same 5 each game. No notable injuries elsewhere on offense.

One under-the-radar note: Former 5* DE Xavier Thomas played his first football of the season last week. He played just six snaps but had two sacks, two hurries, and a caused fumble.
Click to expand...

I think we getting a crazy discount on them lately, guess everyone still down on the offense but I’m not. DJ does still miss some easy throws thst drive me nuts but he playing much more confidently, a huge thing he has become a really effective runner this year, fsu has had a miserable time stopping qb runs. Think I’m gonna put DJ ov 51.5 rush yards in sgp with clemson.
 
Ok I need some suggestions on what to get for take out…need something that will age well between say 1pm and 10pm…Gonna order whatever and go pick up around 1pm, so fire away with suggestions guys!
 
Decided to get multiple meals so I don’t have to go out a second time later. Got shrimp and grits for the lady and got wings and nachos as well. Compromised by getting steamed broccoli and rice as the sides instead of fries and tater tots haha.
 
Definitely got lucky on more than a few tonight. Funny how the line played out with Clemson as I pushed 6 and won 3, but overall a solid day given all the craziness, plus my Heels are 3-0 in the coastal!
 
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