Carolinablue Week 5 Plays

carolinablue

College Football Guru

Week 5 Results
WMU = Winner (+1.0)
MD = Winner (+1.0)
OLE MISS = Winner (+1.0)
BGSU = Winner (+1.0)
ARKIE ST= Loser (-1.25)
IDAHO = LOSER (-1.1)
TOLEDO = LOSER (-1.2)

OVERALL WEEK 5 --> 4-3


Small ML Plays
Maryland ML = Winner +330 (+0.469 units)
Houston ML = Winner +350 (+0.497 units)
Kent St ML = Loser (-0.142 units)
Cuse ML = Loser (-0.142 units)
NT ML = Loser (-0.142 units)
IDAHO ML = Loser (-0.142 units)
ILLINOIS ML = Loser (-0.142 units)

Net ML Plays = 2-5 (+0.256 units)


Week 4 Summary
Another soild week from a profit standpoint, as I finished up 5-3 overall, with another winner in the Sunbelt, to bring my record on those sides up to 6-1.

Penn State = Winner
LSU = Winner
UNC = Loser
Utah = Winner
Tulsa = Winner
SJSU = Loser
Idaho = Loser
Troy (Sunbelt Special) = Winner

Year to date 22-16 (58%)

Home Favs 7-5
Road Favs 9-6
Home Dogs 0-0
Road Dogs 6-3
Totals 0-2

Sunbelt Sides 6-1 (6 straight since losing FAU in week 1)




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Soundbite Review of Week 4 Plays

Penn State = Winner
Game played out exactly as predicted as Temple struggled on the ground and PSU dominated at the line of scrimmage.

LSU = Winner
Hell of a game that could have gone either way as the line was spot on for this one.

UNC = Loser
This one was painful from a personal standpoint, but UNC just couldn't seal the deal as they showed that they aren't quite ready for prime time just yet. Not gonna pin this one on the Yates injury as the penalties, turnovers, and self doubt are the reason my Heels lost this one, as Va Tech looked like they knew they were gonna win this one even when they were down, while my Heels looked like they were hoping they were gonna win this one, even when they were up.

Utah = Winner
Here is one where the line came into play as I got 6 120 early while many others were stuck with 7 or greater. There is a huge difference between winning and pushing, so glad I made the correct decision to jump on this one early instead of waiting till later in the week to lock it in.

Tulsa = Winner
This was an interesting one as I know many who thought NM was the play once the line went past 10, but this was one I locked in at first glance, because to me it was the easiest on the board and it definitely played out that way on the field.

SJSU = Loser
This one was a tough one to swallow because of how it ended, but if I am truly honest with myself, I am not sure if SJSU even deserved to be in that position at the end in this one, as they didn't really play well at all, and them being in the game was more Stanford's ineptitude at punching it in, more than anything. Plus, considering I got the gifts of Rice and ISU earlier this season, not gonna complain too much about this one, but that doesn't make it any easier to swallow, b/c losses like this one are always painful.

Idaho = Loser
Looked good up until the 4th quarter, as Idaho was up 17-14 as a 5.5pt dog, but then the wheels came off in a big way as they gave up 28 straight and that was all she wrote in this one. Judging by the recaps on this one, Idaho deserved to be blown out, so bad call on my part as I shouldn't have put money down on such a historically bad team, even though I thought the value was there.

Troy = Winner
A little nervous towards the end as I thought I was gonna have this one slip right outta my hands, but Troy was definitely the right call as demonstrated on the field. Things played out exactly as predicted as another sunbelt special cashes to make it 6 in a row there. Maybe I should just stick to this conference haha.
 
Locked the following in so far at the greek:

WMU -2.5 120 (still 3 to 3.5 everywhere)
BGSU -2.5 120 (still 3 to 3.5 everywhere)
*Sunbelt Special* TOLEDO -17 120 (already up to 18.5 110 at BM)



Missed PSU while I was locking in these, as it is now up to 14.5 and I was hoping for 13 to 13.5 110.
 
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You can get +7' (-120) at BM right now.

You know, it is possible to make a play at -110. ;)

Unfortunately for me, until I move my funds from the greek over to BM, I don't have as many options to pounce on the early lines like you guys do, as I am at the mercy of the greek pretty much these days. I know big mistake, but with less time these days, figured I would just go with one book since I didn't think I would be doing much line shopping this year with the little guy.

Yeah, these hooks are pricey as it seems like I have more 120 plays than 110 plays, but actually I do have more 110's overall, just barely haha. By the way, I know it is a risky game to play longer term definitely, so no lectures needed haha. Games like the Utah play in week 4 help though, b/c it is a pretty big swing for me when we are talking pushes vs wins, and we always remember the times the hook gets us, but of course we never remember all the times it doesn't come into play haha.

Best of luck in week 5!
 
I am going to wait and see if I can get as many points as possible on the following 2 dog leans I am considering at this point...

Minny (18.5 110 would probably make me bite)
Idaho (no, I am not insane...just don't believe SDSU should be laying DD to any team in D1, even the Vandals. This one keeps rising, so will see where it peaks)

Also looking at SJSU, CSU, and Kent as potential leans.

Definitely gonna be a smallish card when all is said and done, as I don't see much I like at all, so not gonna force it.
 
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I am sure there will be plenty of updates around TJ here locally tomorrow, but for now, this is all that is out there on the local news' websites.


UNC coach Butch Davis’ Sunday evening update didn’t shed much light on the state of quarterback T.J. Yates sprained left ankle: "He’s receiving treatment and undergoing further evalution,’’ he said.
Asked it was a high or low left ankle sprain, Davis said: “He’s receiving treatment and undergoing further evaluation.”
 
Gonna scratch Kent from the leans list as I am nervous about how in the heck they plan to stop BSU, after giving up 600+ to ULL this weekend...

LaFAYETTE, La. -- In a year already filled with dropped passes, blocked punts, fumbles and special teams disasters, Kent State discovered a whole new malfunction to worry about Saturday night at Cajun Field in an ugly 44-27 loss at Louisiana-Lafayette.
Now the Golden Flashes' once-dependable defense can't tackle.
And Jim Lovell, John Swigert and Fred Haise thought they had a few mishaps on their Apollo 13 mission.
Kent State, we have a problem.
"We got overwhelmed defensively," said KSU head coach Doug Martin.
The Flashes' tacklers had a difficult enough time getting off the blocks of a talented Ragin' Cajuns' offensive line. They compounded that problem, however, by whiffing over and over again whenever they had a clean shot on Cajuns quarterback Michael Desormeaux and running back Tyrell Fenroy.
"They flat-out made us look bad," said KSU linebacker Cobrani Mixon. "We made too many mistakes.
Fenroy frustrated the Flashes for 194 yards on 23 carries, including touchdown runs of 5 yards in the first quarter, 69 yards in the second quarter and 1 yard in the fourth quarter.
"We took it on the chin against him," said KSU linebacker Derek Burrell. "He's a really good back. And we just weren't sound."
Desmoreaux added 150 rushing yards on 17 runs and another 253 yards on 15-for-22 passing. The dual-threat quarterback scored on a 5-yard second-quarter plunge and took advantage of a breakdown in KSU's coverage by hitting Ladarius Green on a 55-yard scoring throw in the third.
Add all those big numbers up and you have the bulk of a 667-yard evening by the Cajuns' offense.
Both Desormeaux and Fenroy had already reached the 100-yard rushing performances by the halftime break as UL seized a 23-14 lead.
The nightmare only grew worse in the second half.
In one of the most embarrassing plays of the night, Lafayette's Jason Cherry broke away for a 47-yard touchdown run after three different Flashes defenders -- Mixon, Dan Hartman and Byron Tyson -- all appeared to have him wrapped up for a short gain.
At 37-21 after Cherry's score with 6:28 to play in the third quarter, the game was essentially over.
KSU simply didn't have the firepower to mount a comeback with star running back Eugene Jarvis already sitting out due to an ankle injury; the only reliable pass-catcher, Shawn Bayes, hobbled by a third-quarter leg injury; and quarterback Julian Edelman missing chunks of the second half with cramps.
Even with all of those key players missing time, KSU's defensive disaster spoiled a decent effort by an improving offense.
Edelman kept KSU in the game as long as he could with a spirited effort, rushing for a career-high 136 yards with touchdown runs of 11 yards in the first quarter and six yards in the third quarter, then throwing for another score on a perfect 42-yard strike to Bayes in the third quarter.
"We were able to drive up and down the field," said Edelman. "We had a few missed assignments, and we really made a big play, and I made one mistake (on an interception) when I didn't see the guy ... but we fought.
"Even without that one big play, we still managed to score 27 points."
The Flashes' biggest play of the night -- an 81-yard touchdown pass to a wide-open Alan Vanderink with 8:33 to play in the game -- arrived too late.
"I told our players this was our last preseason game, and now we start our real season, which is the Mid-American Conference," said Martin. "We are getting ready to play against one of the best quarterbacks in the conference (in Ball State's Nate Davis) and one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the country.
"Our defense has got to rebound and play the game of their life. And our offense has to get to the point where when we do play a game like this, we can match people score for score and stay in the game."
 
Also have scratched CSU as Houston pretty much imploded in that one, and Cal should be ready to lay 50+ on em after that embarrasing performance in College Park 2 weeks ago. Wrong place, wrong time for the Rams.
 
Temple loses starting QB

On the fifth play from scrimmage, Penn State defensive end Aaron Maybin circled into the backfield, caught Temple quarterback Adam DiMichele as he tried to scramble away, and took him down from behind.
And with that, Temple lost its starting quarterback.

"I don't know the complete diagnosis, but it's going to be a while, a considerable amount of time," Golden said after the game, just minutes after Penn State finished off a 45-3 win that should bump the Lions' No. 16 ranking.
DiMichele's injured right shoulder sends the Owls into the MAC schedule with redshirt freshman Chester Stewart as the presumptive starting quarterback. Stewart had taken only one college snap before yesterday, and he didn't do that badly, given the opposition. He suffered through six sacks, but, unlike DiMichele, was fortunate to get up in one piece each time.
 
Wyoming Cowboys Continue to Struggle at QB

The Cowboys threw for more yards, sustained a few longer drives and even took some shots downfield on Saturday at LaVell Edwards Stadium, but the signal-caller struggles are anything but over after a 44-0 pasting by No. 14 BYU.

Chris Stutzriem's appearance in the fourth quarter only hints at the frustration UW is facing after four games -- and a full-blown controversy could be coming.

"We've got to get better play from our quarterback spot," UW coach Joe Glenn said. "We tried everybody and got about the same results, so we'll talk about what we're going to do there.
"I don't think we have a controversy or anything, we've got to find a guy that can protect the football."

The Cowboys looked at three of them against the Cougars, and none showed that particular ability.

Crum threw an interception, fumbled on an option run and misfired a lateral that was returned for a touchdown.

Former starter Karsten Sween didn't complete any of his three passes, and his last attempt was a dreadful ball that BYU defensive back Brandon Bradley tipped to teammate David Nixon -- who returned the pick for a score.

And Stutzriem, a redshirt freshman, provided the encore in the closing minutes, fumbling -- and recovering -- a snap before overthrowing Greg Bolling for UW's third interception.

"Well, we're going to go in (today) and watch film and reevaluate everything and figure out what the best way for us as an offense is to get down the field and put points on the board," offensive coordinator Bob Cole said. "Obviously that's been lacking the last couple weeks and something needs to be done.

"We were kind of frustrated by all the turnovers we had in the first half. I mean we had drives going and for whatever reason tried to make something happen when we really didn't need to, and that kind of put everything in reverse."

The offseason additions of Cole and Crum were supposed to get an offense that almost single-handedly kept the Cowboys out of a bowl last season moving the other direction, but it's clearly been a struggle so far.

Crum hasn't had all that much help from a receiving corps that has dropped balls and occasionally appeared disinterested, but he still went into the locker room with respectable numbers against the Cougars.

The sophomore won't be stealing any Heisman votes from Max Hall, but his 11-for-18, 94-yard performance in the first half was a marked improvement.

And he was rewarded with a seat on the bench to open the second half to watch Sween pick up where he left off last season.

"Coach just said we needed a (quarterback) that could put some points on the board, and I couldn't get that done in the first half," Crum said. "That's his decision and I'm going to support my teammates. That's part of playing football, you know, you get out there and score some points.
 
When is a 17-9 game not as close as it may seem (FIU Notes)...

The Bulls dominated nearly every statistic, including total yards, first downs and time of possession. But they failed to score on two possessions inside the 10-yard line and had to settle for a field goal on a third occasion as their offensive line struggled to keep FIU out of its backfield.

The Bulls looked and felt like losers after the game, while FIU celebrated as if it had won as fans gave the winless Golden Panthers (0-3) a standing ovation after the game while shouting "over-rated" to 12th- ranked USF.
"The mistakes we made offensively were unbelievable and then we had a penalty on a run by Mike Ford (at the end) because we weren't lined up correctly," USF head coach Jim Leavitt said. "That is junior high stuff.
"It wasn't things FIU did to us. It was the things we did to ourselves that is what really bothers me. We play a team like this and not rip through them and it's embarrassing to be honest."

One of the worst moments for USF came when it had a fourth-and-goal from the one-inch line at the end of the third quarter and quarterback Matt Grothe was stopped.

"We just didn't execute," Leavitt said. "We get a quarterback sneak from inches out and we can't get it in.

"There is no excuse for that. We have four seniors on the offensive line. Yeah, maybe we should've handed it off to a big back, but we were going backwards. Sometimes they were hitting our running backs in the backfield."

The Bulls did have one good moment.
On their second possession of the game they went 99 yards to score on a 13-play drive that ended with a two-yard run by Ford, who had only two carries in the previous two games because of an injured ankle.

On their next possession, the Bulls went from the their own 38 to the FIU 8-yard line where they had a first-and- goal and had to settle for a 28-yard field goal by Maikon Bonani for a 10-0 lead less than one minute into the second quarter.

USF drove inside the FIU 4 at the end of the first half, but a field goal attempt was blocked.

The first part of the second half was a comedy of errors. Punt returner Marcus Edwards let a punt go that put the Bulls back on their own 6-yard line and then there was the stop on Grothe at the goal line.
Ford struggled in the second half and finished with just 29 yards on 14 carries, but Leavitt said Ford and senior running back Ben Williams are still not 100 percent healthy.
Ford did score on a 1-yard run to push USF's lead to 17-0 with 13:10 left in the game.

His run capped an eight-play, 46- yard drive that was sparked by three big plays, including a 10-yard run by Grothe down to the 4 on a third-and-9 situation.

"We moved the ball all night, but when we got into the red zone where it really mattered we just couldn't punch it in," Grothe said. "The first couple of times when we got down there we struggled and it made them more confident and took something away from us."

In the final minutes, with USF backed up on its 1-yard-line, Ford ran for an apparent first down, picking up about 11 yards, but the play was called back on a penalty. On the next play, the Sarasota High graduate was tackled in the end zone for a safety.

FIU got the ball, and had a 61-yard pass that set up a one-yard touchdown with 1:27 to cut USF's lead to 17-9. The Golden Panthers tried an on-sides kick that USF's Nate Allen Love grabbed and the Bulls ran out the clock.

Except for the one big play, the USF defense held FIU in check.
The Golden Panthers had only nine first downs and 189 total yards from scrimmage while converting only on three of 15 third-down situations.
 
Busting your balls in private ....... wish i was having your year.

keep up the good work .

sunbelt special games ??

rice -19 home to north texas
kansas state -20.5 home to ul lafayette
toledo -17.5 home to fiu
okie st -17 home to troy
ark st pickem at memphis
western kentucky ?? at kentucky
 
Busting your balls in private ....... wish i was having your year.

keep up the good work .

sunbelt special games ??

rice -19 home to north texas
kansas state -20.5 home to ul lafayette
toledo -17.5 home to fiu
okie st -17 home to troy
ark st pickem at memphis
western kentucky ?? at kentucky


Toledo is the only sunbelt game I am playing this week. Here are some quick soundbites on the others...

Rice -19, thanks but no thanks. I think that Rice could win by 20+, but that defense always allows for a shot at the backdoor, and Dodge and co. have to get that offense clicking eventually, so don't wanna worry about Rice covering such a big number. Was hoping for closer to 14.

KSU -20.5, sounds solid on the surface, because of how KSU handled NT, but ULL has some confidence after demolishing Kent last week, so I think they can stay within 3 TDs, as they are playing better ball right now, but KSU needs blowouts against inferior competition to grow their confidence, so don't wanna risk it, as they have the guns to put up 45+ and win this one something like 48-24. With all that said, ULL +pts did make the almost but not quite short list.

Okie St -17, I actually like Troy in this one, but was hoping for a few more points to actually make it a play. If I got 18.5 110, would probably bite, but looks like this one will settle around 16/16.5 so no play b/c of the lack of value. This one was tied with ULL on the short list and would have been a play if the line had moved the other direction.

Arkie St pk, could go either way, so toss ups get tossed immediately in my book. Flip a coin, although I think ASU wins this one on the road by a FG.

WKU +22, nah...Think UK wins by somewhere between 17 and 31, so no value here for me. Could see this being 31-7 or 35-13, so not interested really b/c WKU is such an unknown entity and UK is as big of an enigma as they come this year.

Probably didn't help much, as I kinda just rambled without many facts, but what else is new. Best of luck this week.
 
Another solid week... nicely done.

Any more thoughts on Toledo? Do you think they are just going to take out their aggression on FIU? I usually like to fade FIU, but I am having a hard time this week for some reason.
 
Carolina,

If Yates doesn't get hurt, does UNC pull out the win vs. VT ??

By the boxscore Pawlus seemed awful.
 
Hey -

Gave you hell on your Vandy/Ole Miss number, but what did Vandy win by? Six, right on your line. :shake: It was because of a last second fumble on the 1 yard line as the Rebs were going in for the score, but hey, your number still popped up. :shake:
 
Confirmed. Yates gone for the season.

Game off the board at BM. Still at 7 at Greek.

Buy off of it?
 
Carolina,

If Yates doesn't get hurt, does UNC pull out the win vs. VT ??

By the boxscore Pawlus seemed awful.


Yates wasn't the reason we lost, as I noted in my week 4 recap thread. The reason we lost was because of the penalties and lack of killer instinct when we had the chance to put it away. Like I said before, I don't think we truly believed we were gonna win, we were just hoping we would, whereas Va Tech always believed they were gonna win, even when they were down 17-3. You could see it play out both on the field and in the stands.

Sure, things might have been different had Yates been in there, since he was controlling the flow of the game really well, but there is no excuse to give up a 17-3 lead in the 3rd, with the athletes we had on that field, at home no less.

Just my 2 cents.
 
Hey -

Gave you hell on your Vandy/Ole Miss number, but what did Vandy win by? Six, right on your line. :shake: It was because of a last second fumble on the 1 yard line as the Rebs were going in for the score, but hey, your number still popped up. :shake:

Yeah, it's funny I actually thought about that when I saw the final score scroll across the bottom. But actually you were right and I was wrong, because you nailed the projected line dead on during the early lines discussion. I screwed up b/c if I really thought Vandy -6 should have been the projected line, why in the heck did I not bet the game???
 
Carolina,

If Yates doesn't get hurt, does UNC pull out the win vs. VT ??

By the boxscore Pawlus seemed awful.


One more note...I think he just tried to hard to make plays instead of letting the game play out around him. The kid is a natural leader with tons of talent, but he was in over his head in this one and it showed big time. That INT with around 7mins left resulted in my remote crashing against the wall, so from an emotional standpoint I would say yes he cost us the win or at least a tie, but rationally speaking, we had tons of stupid penalties, plus that Greg Little turnover was the crushing blow, not the INT, in my opinion, b/c that was the play that caused everyone to say "uh oh".
 
Another solid week... nicely done.

Any more thoughts on Toledo? Do you think they are just going to take out their aggression on FIU? I usually like to fade FIU, but I am having a hard time this week for some reason.

Will try to give a more comprehensive write up later this week, but basically for me it comes down to the fact that I don't think FIU can score more than 17, and I am pretty sure Toledo can put up more than 35. Obviously I have more reasons than that, but therein lies the simplistic argument at least.
 
Sept. 22, 2008
<!-- LINKS TO RELATED PAGES BEGIN --><!-- LINKS TO RELATED PAGES END -->University of North Carolina sophomore quarterback T.J. Yates sustained an injury to his left ankle during Saturday's game vs. Virginia Tech. Although x-rays taken during the game were negative, an MRI Sunday evening revealed a small non-displaced fracture in his ankle. Yates' injury will not require surgery. He is expected to miss a minimum of six weeks. During that time he will undergo treatment and rehabilitation. His status will be re-evaluated after six weeks. <!-- STORY AD BEGINS HERE -->
 
Yates wasn't the reason we lost, as I noted in my week 4 recap thread. The reason we lost was because of the penalties and lack of killer instinct when we had the chance to put it away. Like I said before, I don't think we truly believed we were gonna win, we were just hoping we would, whereas Va Tech always believed they were gonna win, even when they were down 17-3. You could see it play out both on the field and in the stands.

Sure, things might have been different had Yates been in there, since he was controlling the flow of the game really well, but there is no excuse to give up a 17-3 lead in the 3rd, with the athletes we had on that field, at home no less.

Just my 2 cents.

CB, I went to the game and I agree. The game changed in the 3rd when there was a personal foul on Sturdivant, I believe. VT had just been stopped on 3rd down play and would have either went for it on 4th and 2 or 3 or punted. I believe VT was around the UNC 35 when this took place. VT got a free first down and later scored a TD. There were two late hit/personal foul penalties after that against UNC that moved the ball for VT when the offense could not. The momentum changed on the Sturdivant personal foul and the quaterback did not seem to matter. After VT was let back into the game they blitzed more on defense and the game changed.

I do not know if the players thought they could win or not, but the fans definately thought they were going to win before and during the game. The fans were also not very loud or seem very into the game. UNC could use a real home field advantage if they want to take the next step.

Toledo and BGSU both look good. :shake:
 
Davis has said that both Mike Paulus and Cam Sexton will get looks at quarterback, and that no decision has been made as to who will start against Miami on Saturday.
 
CB, I went to the game and I agree. The game changed in the 3rd when there was a personal foul on Sturdivant, I believe. VT had just been stopped on 3rd down play and would have either went for it on 4th and 2 or 3 or punted. I believe VT was around the UNC 35 when this took place. VT got a free first down and later scored a TD. There were two late hit/personal foul penalties after that against UNC that moved the ball for VT when the offense could not. The momentum changed on the Sturdivant personal foul and the quaterback did not seem to matter. After VT was let back into the game they blitzed more on defense and the game changed.

I do not know if the players thought they could win or not, but the fans definately thought they were going to win before and during the game. The fans were also not very loud or seem very into the game. UNC could use a real home field advantage if they want to take the next step.

Toledo and BGSU both look good. :shake:


Thanks for the insight. To clarify might statement about not being sure we could win. Obviously I think the players felt they could win, just like every team that steps out on the field, but the problem is that this was that statement game that could have taken the Heels to the next level from a perception standpoint, b/c they were in the spotlight, but didn't take advantage of the opportunity. It would be normal human nature for some of the players to be like "oh shit" when the game went from 17-3 to 17-10 to 17-17 in a matter of what seemed like minutes. The upper echelon teams would have been more like "oh shit, they are not gonna come in here and do this to us in OUR house", not "oh shit, wtf just happened". Hope that makes more sense.

Also, from the fans standpoint, it just seems like the fans were nervous and not fully sold that we were gonna pull this one out as it appeared like they got punched in the gut once one bad thing started happening after another. Hard to explain what I am trying to say I guess, but just didn't seem like they believed, but moreso they hoped.

And for the record, when Little had that fumble, I was like "oh shit". haha.
 
CB - can you tell me what happened at the end of SJSU & Stanford? I am on the east coast & I was watching the final few minutes via cbssportsline scoreboard. Stanford went up by 6 late (heart was beating like crazy when the score changed, only to relax when I saw another fg). then I saw 50 seconds, 44 seconds, 35 seconds...then, my heart rate went through the roof when the score changed with 25 seconds left making it a loser. I immediately figured it was a pick 6...when I saw it was ran in from the 2 with under 30 seconds left....i mean. Anyway, can you tell me how the last minute went? Why didn't they kneel on it? Thanks in advance.
 
Toledo is the only sunbelt game I am playing this week. Here are some quick soundbites on the others...

Rice -19, thanks but no thanks. I think that Rice could win by 20+, but that defense always allows for a shot at the backdoor, and Dodge and co. have to get that offense clicking eventually, so don't wanna worry about Rice covering such a big number. Was hoping for closer to 14.

KSU -20.5, sounds solid on the surface, because of how KSU handled NT, but ULL has some confidence after demolishing Kent last week, so I think they can stay within 3 TDs, as they are playing better ball right now, but KSU needs blowouts against inferior competition to grow their confidence, so don't wanna risk it, as they have the guns to put up 45+ and win this one something like 48-24. With all that said, ULL +pts did make the almost but not quite short list.

Okie St -17, I actually like Troy in this one, but was hoping for a few more points to actually make it a play. If I got 18.5 110, would probably bite, but looks like this one will settle around 16/16.5 so no play b/c of the lack of value. This one was tied with ULL on the short list and would have been a play if the line had moved the other direction.

Arkie St pk, could go either way, so toss ups get tossed immediately in my book. Flip a coin, although I think ASU wins this one on the road by a FG.

WKU +22, nah...Think UK wins by somewhere between 17 and 31, so no value here for me. Could see this being 31-7 or 35-13, so not interested really b/c WKU is such an unknown entity and UK is as big of an enigma as they come this year.

Probably didn't help much, as I kinda just rambled without many facts, but what else is new. Best of luck this week.

I think UK rolls WKU, i have seen both teams play, UK coming off a bye week where they damn near lost to MTSU, Coach Brooks will make sure it will not happen again. Also, we get of best lineman back from injury, so the running game should be alot better. WKU may get shut out, 10 points will be a surprise, i think UK wins 38-7, or soemthing to that effect.
 
WMU caught my eye, but with DiMichele injured and possibly out, that line looks rather low to me...

Yeah, thought the same thing, but I try not to out-think myself anymore, so locked it in while I could as in the past I talked myself out of way too many plays that looked "fishy" at first glance, and needless to say most turned out to be winners, so I will take my chances and see what happens.
 
First, sorry about Yates. Tough break. But UNC still has options at QB -- and a good shot at winning the division.

there is no excuse to give up a 17-3 lead in the 3rd....

I'm having flashbacks to '96. UNC 17 UVA 3, first & goal Tar Heels, 10:00 left. Middle screen is intercepted and taken 95 yards for a TD. Cavs come back and win. I lose more money than I'd ever lost on a football game up to that point. An older gentleman from the UNC alumni group introduces me to the nickname "Mediocre Mack".

That INT with around 7mins left resulted in my remote crashing against the wall

Man, I do that too. Way too much.
 
Wyoming? Maybe? They've gotta hit at least one ATS this year, right? Just think of it as a chase bet...

Already locked on BGSU at 2.5, so let me know what else you guys are thinking as the card is pretty minimal right now.

In terms of home favs, maybe WVU now that the line is 14, or is PSU the better play as far as laying 14 goes? Not 100% sold on either but both are still on the short list.
 
UTEP Notes (UCF -5 is on the short list)

<!--subtitle--><!--byline-->By Bret Bloomquist / El Paso Times
<!--date-->Article Launched: 09/21/2008 11:18:15 PM MDT

Video: UTEP vs. NMSU 9/20/08

EL PASO -- The good news is that the UTEP football team obviously responds well to adversity, because now they have a mountain of it.
Jeff Moturi and Terrell Jackson will probably be back this week when the Miners open Conference USA play against defending champs UCF, Trevor Vittatoe probably won't be back, the team is 0-3 and won't be favored for several more weeks.

"These guys aren't losers," coach Mike Price said after the 34-33 loss to arch-rival New Mexico State. "They haven't won yet, but they are still winners. They're going to keep fighting."
Safety Josh Ferguson said, "There's no one I'd rather have than the 10 guys lined up besides me. I just have to keep encouraging them, helping them see the field through the fire."

The fire is burning now after the Miners did everything they could to salvage a victory against the Aggies. Less than one quarter into the game, Mike and Aaron Price threw the game plan into the garbage and pass-happy UTEP became the runnin' Miners, an option team triggered by James Thomas II with a pair of freshmen running backs as the option. "I can't even explain how good a job JT did, coming in and running the gun-run," said freshman tailback Daniel Palmer, who was denied a touchdown on what appeared to be a bad call after he kicked over the pylon (Thomas scored on the next play). "It was good to see we can do it now if Trevor is out for a long time."

"We showed a lot of courage," Price said. "There's a lot of plays we're going to look back at, what went our way, what didn't go our way, a lot of what-ifs."

They'll have to draw on that courage now, the same courage that enabled them to take the Aggies to the wire despite missing the three offensive players (Vittatoe, Moturi, Jackson) they couldn't afford to miss.
They cobbled together an offense without them, going to the option attack a few days after Price joked that he was going to install a wishbone. The NMSU defense was just as confounded as the UTEP offense, as both teams spent the game doing something they spent a few plays worth of preparation on during the week.

"That little quarterback gave us fits," Aggie coach Hal Mumme said of Thomas, who ended up with 142 rushing yards. "We weren't ready for him. He's a terrific player. I wish he was a senior. I hope he's a senior."
Thomas is a sophomore.
"Too bad," Mumme said.
Ultimately, though, playing a sophomore quarterback who never played there extensively before and a pair of freshman running backs led to a predictable mistake. Thomas and Palmer had a busted handoff when they ran into each other, leading to a fumble at the Aggie 14 that swung the game.

Without a fumble, UTEP would have scored, though NMSU answered on the immediate possession the previous three times the Miners had a lead.
"It was a misdirection and we had a little miscommunication we've got to get corrected in practice," Thomas said.
That's what UTEP will do this week -- correct things in practice.
"Small things," linebacker Adam Vincent said after the defense balanced allowing five touchdowns with scoring two, a sum that UTEP can win with. "If we fix them, we'll have a great defense. "We're winners, we just have to put it together again."
 
UCF Notes (they may be off the short list after reading this...)

Aside from a graphic on ESPNU indicating that Ricky Ross is wide receiver for the Knights, there was not much to smile about for the UCF Football team Saturday in Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Even with the hip-hop star in the lineup, UCF would have had trouble dealing with Boston College, which outscored the Knights 31-0 in the second half en route to a 34-7 victory.

In their first road game of the season, the Knights collapsed after leading 7-3 at the half.

Here's a breakdown of what happened:



UCF QB Michael Greco vs.

Boston College QB Chris Crane

In a game with two very similar squads, whichever team had the best play from its quarterback was going to win.

Both starting quarterbacks played well enough to get benched in the first half, with Boston College backup Dominique Davis entering in the Eagles' third series of the game and UCF true freshman Rob Calabrese making his first appearance with the Knights with about 12 minutes remaining in the second quarter.

Before he was taken out, Greco was 4-of-8 for 35 yards and an interception. Calabrese, seeing his first action of the season, threw an interception in his first collegiate pass attempt.

In Calabrese's second series, he completed a pass attempt - a 7-yard pass to Brian Watters - and rushed two times for six yards.

Calabrese finished 4-of-8 for 37 yards and an interception.

Greco and Calabrese rotated at quarterback for the rest of the game, and the duo combined for just 129 yards through the air and four interceptions.

What Boston College did to Greco, the Knights did to Chris Crane.

Crane struggled in his first two series, completing one pass and nearly being picked off by Joe Burnett.

Crane was relieved by Davis, but only for two series. Crane finished the game with 207 passing yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. He also had two touchdown runs.



UCF run offense vs. BC run defense

For yet another game, redshirt freshman Ronnie Weaver struggled to find open lanes, running 14 times for 42 yards.
UCF head coach George O'Leary did use three running backs in the game, with Brandon Davis and Latavius Murray combining for eight carries, but Weaver claimed the lion's share of the carries again.

The Boston College defense held the Knights in check for most of the game, and UCF averaged just 3.6 yards per carry.

The most exciting rush of the game came on a broken play, when Greco scrambled from the pocket and darted across the field all the way to the 1-yard line.

Three plays later, Greco scored UCF's only points of the game.



Special teams

UCF's kick return and punting units gave the Knights an edge, but a stagnant offense and shoddy field goal kicking negated it.

Daren Daly missed two field goal attempts - one from 25 yards and another from 23 yards.

The Knights were given a couple gifts in the first half when Boston College kicker Steve Aponavicius missed his first field goal attempt and punter Ryan Quigley shanked two punts, which traveled distances of 24 and 17 yards.

UCF punt returner Joe Burnett only returned two punts for a total of seven yards, but he shined on kickoff returns.

Burnett returned seven kickoffs for a total of 175 yards, including a long of 43 yards after the Eagles scored their first touchdown of the game.

But the UCF offense continually could not take advantage of the good field position



UCF defense vs. BC offense

The Knights again showed that they are no slouches when it comes to defense. They allowed 405 total yards of offense, but that is to be expected when a unit spends more than 35 minutes on the field.

Senior safety Jason Venson led the way for UCF, delivering bone-crushing hits and notching off his eighth career interception.

The Knights allowed big plays sparingly, especially in the second half, but when they did, the Eagles were able to capitalize, which negated UCF's strong play in the first half.



Looking forward

For the Knights, the loss was an awful outcome for the their first road game of the season. Now they have until Saturday against UTEP to try and fix their problems.

Defense wins championships, but not if a team can't score points.

There may be no better ointment for UCF's ailment than the Miners defense, which allows nearly 40 points per contest.
 
More UCF Notes

Boston College was ripe for the taking on Saturday. UCF didn’t feel like taking. UCF was, instead, in a giving mood. Turnovers. Missed field goals.
The Knights have issues. They’re hurting on offense. Their kicking game isn’t helping. And they’re wasting a good defense.

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: In college football today, you’re only as good as your quarterback. The Knights don’t have a dependable quarterback.

And UCF’s is an offense that isn’t a quarterback offense. It’s a running back offense. The Knights don’t have a force a running back (yet) and their offensive line isn’t close to jelling. (It’s not a good thing that UCF’s leading rusher against Boston College on Saturday was QB Michael Greco, and he gained 54 yards. Grecco is also the Knights’ leading rusher on the season.)

But for a quarterback who started at NC State, Greco isn’t as far along as he should be. He’s clearly a playmaker, but he’s one who struggles to balance his creativity with his excitability. The result is way too many mistakes. Flashes of brilliance --- evidence the final quarter vs. USF --- painted against poor throws.
It now appears Joe Weatherford has been hurdled by freshman Rob Calabrese as the Grecco’s backup. He’ll probably be fine one day. One day. But probably not in 2008.

Truth be told, UCF offensive coordinator Tim Salem found himself handcuffed before the season kicked off when two key weapons --- receivers A.J. Guyton and Kamar Aiken got hurt. (It didn’t help when running back Phillip Smith, heir to Kevin Smith’s job, got himself removed from the team.)

What does say about this team that the best scoring threat the Knights have is cornerback Joe Burnett? Must Burnett be a three-team player (offense, defense, special teams) to UCF some scoring punch?
Now comes a long, long trip to Texas (at UTEP). This for a program that historically has struggled to take long plane flights and play well. (Recall the Knights had all they could handle against a then-bad Rice team in Houston in 2005; they won that one, clinching a C-USA East Division crown.)

But who would have thought that winning in El Paso might mean so much to the Knights?
 
Buffalo Notes (If it gets to +7.5, may be worth a look)

The University at Buffalo’s loss to Missouri on Saturday doesn’t matter in the big picture. The only numbers that matter now are 1-0, the Bulls’ record in the Mid-American Conference coming into the heart of their schedule.

The Bulls have thoughts of a winning season and a bowl bid but if they want to reach that, they are going to have to become trailblazers.
It starts Saturday at Central Michigan (2-2, 1-0) and the Bulls have a bye before hosting Western Michigan and their final nonconference game of the season against Army. The rest of the schedule is at Ohio, at home against Miami, at Akron and Bowling Green before the regular-season finale at home against Kent State.

The Bulls have never beaten Western Michigan or Miami and have yet to beat Ohio, Akron or Bowling Green on the road. Saturday’s 4 p. m. game is the first time UB has played at Central Michigan. After four games, UB coach Turner Gill feels good about his team.

“I found out a lot more about where we are, particularly the freshman linebackers,” he said. “Those guys had not played a lot of football games and after four games, they’re no longer rookies. They know how to play and know how to get things done.”

The Bulls (2-2, 1-0) are the only team in the league’s East Division with a conference victory. Akron, Temple and Ohio are all 0-1, while Kent State, Miami and division favorite Bowling Green have yet to play a conference game. At 2-2, UB and Akron are the only teams in the division with an overall record of at least .500.

“We’ve got a bunch of great players on both sides of the ball and a great coaching staff,” said senior quarterback Drew Willy. “This is what we’ve been looking forward to — getting into the MAC. Missouri is a great team and it’s good to get that kind of experience and we should be ready to go [Saturday].”

In the West Division, Ball State (4-0, 1-0) is the only remaining team in the conference with an unbeaten record and this week received six votes in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and 16 in the coaches poll. Ball State, Western Michigan, Central Michigan and Toledo, which nearly knocked off No. 25 Fresno State on Saturday, are all tied for first place at 1-0, while Eastern Michigan and Northern Illinois are 0-1 in league play.
On Saturday, Central Michigan appeared set to pull off an upset over Purdue after taking a 25-24 lead with 1:18 remaining on a 6-yard touchdown pass by Dan LeFevour followed by a two-point conversion pass to Antonio Brown. But the Boilermakers’ Kory Sheets scored on a 46-yard touchdown run with a minute left and Dwight McLean intercepted a pass by LeFevour with 27.7 seconds left to seal the win for Purdue.
Like Missouri’s Chase Daniel, Le- Fevour is one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. LeFevour is averaging 279.8 yards passing a game and leads the Chippewas in rushing with 218 yards.
 
CMU Notes - Wonder how they will come out emotionally next week

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. - This was their time.

The CMU football team had watched for weeks as fellow Mid-American Conference opponents knocked off Bowl Championship Series teams, a feat that it had yet to accomplish despite all it had in the last two seasons.

It was a message that coach Butch Jones relayed to his team throughout the week leading up to Saturday's game against Purdue. It's a message that realistically was in reach, but now seems all the more distant.

As he ran off Ross-Ade Stadium's field after his team's 32-25 loss, Jones' transparent mental anguish radiated. It was supposed to end differently - and that made it all the more heartbreaking.

Many of the CMU faithful were near tears in their small cheering section in the corner of the end zone where Antonio Brown caught a pass that gave the school two points and a 25-24 lead.

Just 18 seconds later, they neared tears for a different reason as Purdue running back Kory Sheets rumbled for 46 yards and the likely win.

But like in so many other instances, Central wasn't done.

It wasn't until after Dan LeFevour's pass was intercepted near the goal-line that the bitterness set in.

Sure, it wasn't the biggest game of the season, and it won't hurt in the Mid-American Conference standings.

Still, it stings more than any other loss in the last two years.

The team did not admit it after the game, and it may take weeks to grasp what went wrong. The somberness of the team was eerie as it jogged off the field to the sound of applause from their friends, family and fans.

Jones' "24-hour rule," which means the team must forget about the previous game after one day, has never been more crucial.

As players and coaches sat on a bus heading back to Mount Pleasant after the game, another MAC school - Ball State - was completing a 42-20 win at Indiana. Another - Toledo - was battling No. 25 Fresno State into double overtime.

Buffalo, its next opponent, is not the doormat of Division I football any more. Central has many doubters to prove wrong as Ball State has become the conference favorite.

Its three-game homestand (Buffalo, Temple and Western Michigan) likely will give an indication whether CMU returns to Detroit in December for the MAC Championship game.

One thing's for certain - a win against a BCS team will happen, whether its Nov. 1 against Indiana or in two or three years.

But it all comes down to knowing how to win. Unfortunately for the Chippewas, they don't know how it's done against BCS teams - yet.
 
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