Carolinablue Week 5 Plays

[carolinablue]

Another unsatisfying week as I went 7-7 and dropped -0.901 units, but given the fact that this was a crazy week that saw many take a pretty bad hit, I guess all things considered, it could have been a lot worse.

Even though my Heels finally showed some offense and pulled out a win in the home opener vs Pitt (we are first place in the Coastal baby!) and I hit a 2H PK play on UNC, I still ended up losing money this week, and I don't take solace in the fact that the week was a brutal one as 7-7 just won't cut it longer term. To put it bluntly, mediocrity is not an option and I absolutely hate losing, even though in this given pursuit, we are pretty much guaranteed to lose at least 40% of the time even in our best seasons.

With all that said, as the late great Gorilla Monsoon used to say "close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades", so let's get after it this week and start cranking out some real profit!

Year to Date 26-22-1 +0.618 U

Week 5 Plays

• UNC +18.5 117
• Buffalo -6 110
• NC State -6.5 110
• UCF -13.5 129
• Florida +8.5 120
• UAB -16.5 110
• North Texas -6.5 110
• Hawaii -10 120
• AFA v Nevada Over 66 110
• App State v USA Over 59 110
• Toledo v Fresno Over 59.5 110
• Alabama 1H -30 110

 

[carolinablue]

UNC +18.5 117

 

[carolinablue]

Buffalo -6 110
NCSU -6.5 110

 

[carolinablue]

UCF -13.5 129
Florida +8.5 120

 

[carolinablue]

North Texas -6.5 110
UAB -16.5 110

 

[carolinablue]

Hawaii -10 120

 

[skanless13]

GL UNC on a couple of those myself.. esp. U of Buff.

 

[carolinablue]

GL UNC on a couple of those myself.. esp. U of Buff.

Yeah been riding buffalo each week,so gonna keep going until they prove me wrong as I feel we got some solid value as a result of Army’s performance vs OU.

 

[skanless13]

Yeah been riding buffalo each week,so gonna keep going until they prove me wrong as I feel we got some solid value as a result of Army’s performance vs OU.

Yep. Absolutely.. i know the wheels are going to fall off at some point, but so far they've been $ and are in a great spot off that Army performance.

Take a look at Scary (SoCarol) this week.. i really like them for somewhat similar reasons.

 

[carolinablue]

Yep. Absolutely.. i know the wheels are going to fall off at some point, but so far they've been $ and are in a great spot off that Army performance.

Take a look at Scary (SoCarol) this week.. i really like them for somewhat similar reasons.

I have that one pegged as a tossup in every sense of the word as I don’t know what to make of Kentucky, but that line is so tight I don’t see any value in what would essentially be a ML play either way. If I had to choose, I would probably side with the Wildcats at home as they are tough to beat if you fall into the trap of playing their game.

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck this week

 

[LeRinkRat]

Hawaii -10 120

Rainbows up to -12 @ San Hoser State

you REALLY want to FADE ARMY ???

 

[carolinablue]

Hawaii -10 120

Rainbows up to -12 @ San Hoser State

you REALLY want to FADE ARMY ???

Not a fade of Army but rather a play on Buffalo. Two totally different things in my view.

 

[carolinablue]

Hawaii -10 120

Rainbows up to -12 @ San Hoser State

you REALLY want to FADE ARMY ???

Hawaii line now up to -13.5 at BM

 

[carolinablue]

Hawaii now at -13 and Buffalo now at -9. Finally on the right side of some line moves, it’s about time!

 

[B.A.R.]

Hawaii now at -13 and Buffalo now at -9. Finally on the right side of some line moves, it’s about time!

Very nice...

 

[carolinablue]

Nevada v AFA Over 66 110

 

[carolinablue]

App State v USA Over 59 110

 

[carolinablue]

Will probably round out the card with Alabama 1H play when it comes out as I can see that one being at worst 35-3 at the half and then Bama going on cruise control running the ball the rest of the way, so not willing to take a chance on the 49 as I just see more value in a half play hopefully around 28.

 

[number2]

Will probably round out the card with Alabama 1H play when it comes out as I can see that one being 35-3 at the half and then Bama going on cruise control running the ball the rest of the way, so not willing to take a chance on the 49 as I just see more value in a half play hopefully around 28.

Thinking of playing Alabama first half this week. Line should be in the 28-35 range I believe. I’m worried that Saban might put in Hurts in the 2nd quarter to give him reps since it’s against some cupcakes. So basically betting on Tua to give me at least 21 points to have a shot. What you guys think? Thanks.

 

[carolinablue]

Thinking of playing Alabama first half this week. Line should be in the 28-35 range I believe. I’m worried that Saban might put in Hurts in the 2nd quarter to give him reps since it’s against some cupcakes. So basically betting on Tua to give me at least 21 points to have a shot. What you guys think? Thanks.

I like the fact that Hurts has been making smart decisions when he has come in, as he is completing passes at a 70% clip and plays with confidence and with something to prove, so I’m not too worried about him blowing the cover in the 2nd quarter. I think I am a couple weeks late jumping in the first half train however, so the value may be sucked out of the number now that we are in week 5. If I can get 28-34, I will probably make it a play though but if it is something like 35.5 I will probably pass due to lack of value with that number.

Best of luck this weekend!

 

[carolinablue]

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – The lone North Carolina media availability prior to Thursday’s primetime matchup with No. 16 Miami in South Florida was a Larry Fedora clinic in cloak and dagger misdirection as it related to his quarterback situation.
In April, as UNC’s 15 spring practices came to a close and offseason speculation began in earnest, word leaked out of the Kenan Football Center that junior quarterback Nathan Elliott, who had finished the season as the Tar Heels’ starter, had outplayed sophomore Chazz Surratt and was the frontrunner for the job entering training camp. Then came the July news that Surratt would miss four games due to suspension after selling team-issued Jordan Brand shoes in January.

Training camp came and went, and while true freshmen Cade Fortin and Jace Ruder competed for playing time, Elliott had solidified his starting position through the month of August. And then came September and poor outings in losses to California and East Carolina. After a hurricane-induced cancellation against No. 13 UCF and a solid outing in a win against Pittsburgh, Elliott (59-of-104 passing, 669 yards, 3 TD, 4 INT) enters Hard Rock Stadium as UNC’s starting quarterback while Surratt is once again available to play.

Anything beyond that is just speculation, and Fedora took time to enjoy toying with reporters following Monday’s practice at Kenan Stadium.
When asked if he anticipated Surratt getting much playing time, Fedora replied, “I don’t know. He could. I mean, he could. He could and he couldn’t. He could and he couldn’t.”
Depending on what, you ask? “Depending on what I think.”

To Fedora’s credit, he did confirm that while Surratt took reps with the ones and twos during training camp, the Denver, N.C. native was relegated to scout team reps the first four weeks of the season as Fortin assumed backup duties. Now that Surratt’s suspension is currently over – he would be forced to sit out another game if UNC adds a 12th game later in the season – the sophomore quarterback, who started seven games in 2017, is back working with the ones and the twos.
When asked if Surratt was currently the No. 3 quarterback behind Fortin and had to work his way back up the depth chart or if he could be Elliott’s backup in Miami, Fedora smiled and said, “I’ll say yes to both of your questions.”
For a coach who has received plenty of criticism for dodging questions and hiding injuries throughout his career, Fedora sure seemed to have fun deflecting questions about the most pressing position in his offense after a 1-2 start and one of the nation’s top defenses up next on the schedule.

Fedora closed strong, effectively ending the media availability with an answer so predictable that it left reporters shaking their heads. After telling anyone who would listen in the days leading up to the Pitt game that Fortin would likely see more playing time – the freshman didn’t take a snap in the 38-35 victory – Fedora was asked if he was open to a quarterback rotation between Elliott and Surratt against the Hurricanes.

“I could use two or three, actually.”
With media members either silenced or laughing at his response, Fedora smirked and walked away, victorious for the second time in three days.

 

[carolinablue]

Toledo v Fresno Over 59.5 110

 

[carolinablue]

CHAPEL HILL
Seven North Carolina football players, who were suspended for 30 percent of the season after selling their team-issued sneakers, will be eligible to play against No. 16 Miami on Thursday.

One of those returning players is redshirt sophomore quarterback Chazz Surratt, who was expected to compete for the starting job this Spring.

Senior defensive end Malik Carney will return for the Miami game too. However, he will sit out against Virginia Tech on Oct. 13. He played in the first game of the season against Cal because his suspension was staggered. He had eight tackles and two sacks.

Among the other returners who will give UNC a boost are receiver Beau Corrales, who performed well in big-time games as a redshirt freshman, and Malik Carney, a game-changing defensive lineman.

Corrales is especially intriguing in this matchup as he had four catches for 64 yards and two touchdowns against Miami last season. Carney’s return should help out the Tar Heels defense. The senior recorded eight tackles and two sacks in a Week 1 loss to California. Tomon Fox, one of the players allowed to stagger his suspension will miss the Hurricanes game as part of his shoe suspension. He recorded 14 tackles and three quarterback hurries in the first three games.

“I’m looking forward to seeing them all, because we need every single one of them,” Fedora told the AP. “There’s a lot of guys that give us some depth at some positions where we’ve been really thin and it’s been really shaky at this point. But now we’ve got some guys that can get back into the fray, start competing.”

 

[carolinablue]

Summary of UNC Suspension Returns...

Seven Tar Heels – offensive lineman Brian Anderson, wide receiver Beau Corrales, defensive end Tyrone Hopper, offensive lineman Quiron Johnson, linebacker Malik Robinson, quarterback Chazz Surratt and offensive lineman Jordan Tucker – will make their first appearance of the season at Hard Rock Stadium. Defensive backs Greg Ross and Tre Shaw sat out the first two games, while walk-on quarterback Jack Davidson and offensive lineman Jonah Melton were suspended for the season opener at California.
Surratt, Tucker and Corrales have the best opportunity to see playing time immediately. Surratt started seven games in 2017, completing 58.5 percent of his passes for 1,342 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions, before getting knocked out of the Miami game and eventually losing his starting job to Nathan Elliott. Offensive line coach Chris Kapilovic told Inside Carolina this summer that Tucker was likely his third option at offensive tackle behind starters Charlie Heck and William Sweet.

Corrales, a 6-4, 210-pound wide receiver, caught nine passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns as a true freshman last season, including a pair of touchdown passes against Miami.

“He’s a big dude, he’s got great hands, a physical receiver,” Elliott said. “He can really help us with some of the deep balls in using his body to get on some of their corners and safeties.”

 

[carolinablue]

Spreads and totals bouncing around pretty good the last 24hrs or so as lines are all over the place right now. If you like totals, you can get both of mine at way better value than I did but I’m staying put with what i have. I like to keep it consistent and not over-invest in any one play on the board, just not my style as I am all about grinding it out over the course of a long season, but some of the current lines are definitely tempting enough to consider a double play on both.

 

[carolinablue]

Getting Malik Carney back for this one will potentially be huge for UNC, as he is without a doubt the best pass rusher we have and he had eight tackles and 2.5 sacks against Cal and they really missed him in that ECU game as they would no doubt have gotten more pressure on the QB if he hadn't been out in that one.

Not sure if Fedora will play Chazz or not Thursday, but he is a legit dual threat at QB as he can both run and pass the ball, so even if he comes in during situational plays, it could cause Miami some problems given his athleticism (think about that 4th and 1 QB read call vs Pitt last week as an example).

I also like what I saw from Ohio State transfer Antonio Williams last week, as he ran for a career high 114 yards and had two touchdowns against Pitt and he really seemed to come out with a chip on his shoulder and a renewed focus after the disappointing loss at ECU. If the Heels can get any semblance of a running game going, it gives them a good chance to hang around in this one and keep Nathan out of 3rd and long situations as he plays best when he is ahead of the chains, not behind them.

Last thing for me is no stupid penalties or untimely turnovers. Not saying we have to play a perfect game but we do have to play solid ball and give ourselves a chance and not make those boneheaded plays that seem to happen at least 2-3 times every game. Definitely a tall order, but the good thing is that we historically have played the Canes very well and Fedora also seems to get his guys up for Miami as most of the time the games have been far from blowouts, so I will take my chances with basically getting 3 TDs, as worst case, the backdoor should be open with Miami having FSU on deck in a rivalry game. Should be a good one tomorrow night!

 

[carolinablue]

Last play of the week...

Alabama 1H -30 110

 

[Jimmydafreak]

I like the fact that Hurts has been making smart decisions when he has come in, as he is completing passes at a 70% clip and plays with confidence and with something to prove, so I’m not too worried about him blowing the cover in the 2nd quarter. I think I am a couple weeks late jumping in the first half train however, so the value may be sucked out of the number now that we are in week 5. If I can get 28-34, I will probably make it a play though but if it is something like 35.5 I will probably pass due to lack of value with that number.

Best of luck this weekend!

If you're going to bet on Alabama, 1st half would definitely be the play.

I also kind of doubt we see Hurts in the 1st half, which is why I like the play. If and when he does come in, he will be absolute death to the cover . . . just like he was last week.

I will add that, for the first time in the Saban era, Alabama has a QB coach, and Dan Enos has pulled off what I thought to be impossible. He has actually made Hurts look like a real QB at times.

 

[number2]

If you're going to bet on Alabama, 1st half would definitely be the play.

I also kind of doubt we see Hurts in the 1st half, which is why I like the play. If and when he does come in, he will be absolute death to the cover . . . just like he was last week.

I will add that, for the first time in the Saban era, Alabama has a QB coach, and Dan Enos has pulled off what I thought to be impossible. He has actually made Hurts look like a real QB at times.

Yeah.....Hurts doing nada last game killed the cover

It seems like Hurts starts to play when Alabama is up around 4 tds.....hopefully Tua and the defense starts off strong.....

 

[STEED]

GL this week cb