Carolinablue Week 5 Confirmed Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
4-2 last week to raise the confirmed posted record to 23-11 on the year.

Have a nice 18-5 run going the last 3 weeks, so let's keep it going in week 5.

Confirmed Plays
HOUSTON -9.5 120 (GREEK)
RUTGERS -13.5 110 (5DIMES)*** (see note below on juice)
CLEMSON -2.5 115 (GREEK)
TROY -12.5 110 (GREEK)
PSU -2.5 120 (GREEK)
OU OVER 38 115 (GREEK)
PURDUE OVER 38 115 (GREEK)
MONTANA -26 115 (5DIMES)

***Gotta give props to 5dimes as they reduced my juice by .10 on this one b/c once again I caught a line error on their opens (A few weeks back they had Rice -3.5 vs Nicholls and this week they had GT +22.5 vs Clemson). Nice gesture on their part since they really didn't have to do anything. They sent me an email w/ a number to call and they made the adjustment to my play via phone in like 2 mins.


Will be adding plays over the course of the next hour, so will just drop em in here as soon as I add em to the card.
 
Last edited:
CB, what do you think about tulsa? i like it but there may be a reason why it is not at -21 yet? thanks in advance.
 
Man, I am such an idiot, 5dimes has Rutgers at 13.5 110 now, oh well. Need to look over all of their lines right now before I jump back over to the Greek's site.
 
On the Rutgers play with you, CB.

Good call and comeback on FAU last week. We both didn't do so hot with TT though.

Have a good week.
 
RJ Esq said:
On the Rutgers play with you, CB.

Good call and comeback on FAU last week. We both didn't do so hot with TT though.

Have a good week.
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I will take a 4-2 week anytime, so no complaints here, especially since I woulda been 4-1-1 had Crabtree not dropped that game winning TD in the endzone at the end of the game.
 
carolinablue said:
I will take a 4-2 week anytime, so no complaints here, especially since I woulda been 4-1-1 had Crabtree not dropped that game winning TD in the endzone at the end of the game.
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No doubt. Good results as always. TT was the better team.

TT has already fired their DC after that game. Cracks me up.
 
CLEMSON -2.5 115 (Greek)

Not catching a break on any of these lines this week as Rutgers is 13.5 110 everywhere now, but hey what can ya do, as I have been pretty good with guessing moves the first few weeks, so had to figure I was due for an off week on line guesses at some point.

Won't be around much online this week due to travel for work, so trying to lock in all my plays tonight, even though it might burn me later.
 
My remaining plays will come from the following, dependent on line moves over the next few hours...

VT
VILLE
PSU
CINCY
WVU
 
RJ Esq said:
On the Rutgers play with you, CB.

Good call and comeback on FAU last week. We both didn't do so hot with TT though.

Have a good week.
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Glad I was able to help a number of guys out with the FAU play in week 4, and also the Baylor play, as I know that the Dr Bob line move syndrome on Buffalo caused a lot of people to doubt that one, but in the end another one for the good guys as Baylor covered with ease.
 
RambleOn said:
On Rutgers and Penn St as well. Good luck this week.
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Thanks Ramble. I am still waiting on PSU to try and figure out where I think the money will come in, and I gotta think that the line is gonna hit 3.5 sooner or later, so may decide to take the hook to make this one under a FG. Best of luck this week.
 
Rutgers -13.5 120 now officially changed to -13.5 110, see note below on how this happened...


***Gotta give props to 5dimes as they reduced my juice by .10 on this one b/c once again I caught a line error on their opens (A few weeks back they had Rice -3.5 vs Nicholls and this week they had GT +22.5 vs Clemson). Nice gesture on their part since they really didn't have to do anything. They sent me an email w/ a number to call and they made the adjustment to my play via phone in like 2 mins.
 
RJ Esq said:
that is good customer service.
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Yeah, it's funny, because when I saw the GT +22.5 line I kinda laughed but then I figured I should send a note to em via live chat just in case they didn't realize it was up. They said thanks and would pass it along to the manager. I told em that they need to put me on the payroll since this is the 2nd time I caught a line error and then I said later, and that was that.

Got an email about 15 mins ago saying to call customer service as the manager wanted to say thanks and give me 10 cents off a play right then and there if I wanted to add one to my card, but I ddn't really see anything I wanted to add right now, so I figured he would say oh well and hang up, but when I asked if he could just change my Rutgers play from 120 to 110, he said no problem and 30 secs later it was done.

Not a huge deal in the whole scheme of things, but this is the kinda thing that goes a long way with me as they didn't have to do anything to be honest, so I will definitely give em credit on this one.
 
Always nice to hear about a book treating customers good instead of scamming them. Excellent week again this past week and good luck this week
 
great stuff about 5dimes. A buddy of mine wanted a new book for this season and I told him to go with greek, 5dimes, or matchbook. He went with 5dimes and is extremely happy. Very nice gesture on their part.

Card looks great so far, and I was looking at all of those myself for this weekend, cept Troy. hopefully I can add them and still get some decent prices.

Of those that haven't made the cut yet, i like VT or the Ville better than Cincy and WVU.

yates does not look comfortable throwing the ball, and VT should get on him pretty good. Taylor for the hokies may be what they need to spring them into conference play. Granted he didn't look that great against Ohio, and W&M is, well W &M. But he didn't fuck it up and is a huge upgrade over Glennon. Maybe next year, UNC can make a game of it, but this year, I think they get rolled. Beamer has an 18-7 ats conference record over the last 3 years fwiw.

I am of th opinion L'ville will get straightened out a bit over the next couple games. They should be able to put some points on the board against the wolfpack who is not doing well this year. I would need a drop under 7 to play tho.

Cincy heads to Rutgers after this contest out west, and they could wither roll again, or ease up and let a run happy SDSU squad hang around at the end. Kind of a crummy spot, but under 2 touchdowns is tempting.

As a fan I am probably going to watch the WVU with no financial interest, although as Friday draws closer, that will probably change. No appearance of a lookahead for either team heading into this contest. We have a huge revenge situation, obviously, but that usually works better when you have that team at home to get the revenge. I will be digging into this game more as the week goes on. I wouldn't play the mounties at anything over a touchdown and both times these teams have met the total scores in the games have been 41 and 43 points. Under rodriguez, the mounties are 12-3 ATS as an away favorite.
 
Joe Public said:
Clemson laying points on the road?

That one troubles me a bit CB.
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Yeah, I could see why, as road favs are always a dicey proposition. As always, I will try and get some write ups done on all my plays within the next day or so. Best of luck this weekend.
 
slim5150 said:
great stuff about 5dimes. A buddy of mine wanted a new book for this season and I told him to go with greek, 5dimes, or matchbook. He went with 5dimes and is extremely happy. Very nice gesture on their part.

Card looks great so far, and I was looking at all of those myself for this weekend, cept Troy. hopefully I can add them and still get some decent prices.

Of those that haven't made the cut yet, i like VT or the Ville better than Cincy and WVU.

yates does not look comfortable throwing the ball, and VT should get on him pretty good. Taylor for the hokies may be what they need to spring them into conference play. Granted he didn't look that great against Ohio, and W&M is, well W &M. But he didn't fuck it up and is a huge upgrade over Glennon. Maybe next year, UNC can make a game of it, but this year, I think they get rolled. Beamer has an 18-7 ats conference record over the last 3 years fwiw.

I am of th opinion L'ville will get straightened out a bit over the next couple games. They should be able to put some points on the board against the wolfpack who is not doing well this year. I would need a drop under 7 to play tho.

Cincy heads to Rutgers after this contest out west, and they could wither roll again, or ease up and let a run happy SDSU squad hang around at the end. Kind of a crummy spot, but under 2 touchdowns is tempting.

As a fan I am probably going to watch the WVU with no financial interest, although as Friday draws closer, that will probably change. No appearance of a lookahead for either team heading into this contest. We have a huge revenge situation, obviously, but that usually works better when you have that team at home to get the revenge. I will be digging into this game more as the week goes on. I wouldn't play the mounties at anything over a touchdown and both times these teams have met the total scores in the games have been 41 and 43 points. Under rodriguez, the mounties are 12-3 ATS as an away favorite.
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Good stuff, thanks!

If the Ville gets to 7, then I will take my shot.

Gonna see what happens to the VT line the next few days, as anything under 17 is definitely intriguing.

Cincy under 2 TDs is worth a look. Line won't seem to budge off 14 at the Greek or 5dimes though.
 
RSMS9999 said:
still not an Illini believer?
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Nope.

Indiana did everything in their power to give them that game and Illinois didn't impress me at all based on everything I have read, so until they win a game against decent opposition, instead of having one gift wrapped, I will reserve judgment. They won me money vs Syracuse and lost me money vs Indiana, so guess this is the rubber game haha.

Best of luck this weekend, nice job this season!
 
mb197942 said:
cb i keep up with the sec an i see fla blowing auburn slap out of the swamp whats your insight?
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I agree with you completely, but unfortunately I just don't see any value in that line as it is exactly where I figured it would be. Best of luck this weekend.
 
Man, I lean to Auburn in that one, but it's the same scenario we have in Texas with KSU and OU on deck and we had last week with Cal v Zona and Oregon on deck.

+18 is a ton in the SEC but Florida will want blood for last year. Have to look at that one further.
 
RJ Esq said:
Man, I lean to Auburn in that one, but it's the same scenario we have in Texas with KSU and OU on deck and we had last week with Cal v Zona and Oregon on deck.

+18 is a ton in the SEC but Florida will want blood for last year. Have to look at that one further.
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You are probably right, I mean, I thought Florida was a cinch to cover this past weekend but at the last minute I decided not to make it a play, but that just goes to show you that I am far from an expert when it comes to the SEC as I just don't watch enough of that conference to have a great feel for it (except when it comes to week 1 gimmes like that LSU -16 vs MSU haha).
 
carolinablue said:
I will take a 4-2 week anytime, so no complaints here, especially since I woulda been 4-1-1 had Crabtree not dropped that game winning TD in the endzone at the end of the game.
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Yes, but you were very fortunate to win that FAU game. N. Texas was leading the entire game until the 4th quarter when FAU scored 17 unanswered pts. Adding to the help for FAU was 3 N.Texas turnovers, and none for FAU.

All of this, and the 7 pt favorite only wins by 10, covering the spread by 3.

If you are going to point that bad luck, you must also point out the good luck.
 
troy gives up a lot of yards on the ground. they gave up 300 plus to u la la, and just about 280 ypg to everyone else on their schedule. u la mo can and will run the ball imo. that is a tough call for me. i like the all the others.

gl
 
dmart420 said:
troy gives up a lot of yards on the ground. they gave up 300 plus to u la la, and just about 280 ypg to everyone else on their schedule. u la mo can and will run the ball imo. that is a tough call for me. i like the all the others.

gl
Click to expand...

That is definitely a great point and I could see why that would cause some to not want to be on this game. I have tons of data points on this one, but here are a few since I don't have time for an actual detailed writeup. Hope this helps...

One key point people leave out in this debate is that both teams suck at run d as Troy is 119 but ULM is 113, so neither team can stop the run, and both are top 50 running the ball, so I expect 200+ from both teams, not just ULM.

The other point often left out is that ULM is 107 against the pass while Troy is 32, so ULM sucks at defense period, while at least Troy can defend the pass, meaning ULM will be forced to be even more 1 dimensional than they already are (105 in pass off). Troy is 20 in passing offense so I will take my chances that they will outscore ULM as ULM won't be able to stop them in this one. Best of luck this weekend.
 
gridironguy said:
Yes, but you were very fortunate to win that FAU game. N. Texas was leading the entire game until the 4th quarter when FAU scored 17 unanswered pts. Adding to the help for FAU was 3 N.Texas turnovers, and none for FAU.

All of this, and the 7 pt favorite only wins by 10, covering the spread by 3.

If you are going to point that bad luck, you must also point out the good luck.
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Point well taken, although seeing an 0-4 team turn the ball over 3 times and giving up 17 points in the 4th isn't luck really, as it just demonstrates why they are 0-4, but I hear what you are saying.

I could go through all of my games and point out that I was lucky to win every single one probably, so in the whole scheme of things, I am just like whatever, not sure why I even brought it up to be honest because the whole luck discussion is silly to me as I don't even believe in luck anyway.
 
carolinablue said:
Point well taken, although seeing an 0-4 team turn the ball over 3 times and giving up 17 points in the 4th isn't luck really, as it just demonstrates why they are 0-4, but I hear what you are saying.

I could go through all of my games and point out that I was lucky to win every single one probably, so in the whole scheme of things, I am just like whatever, not sure why I even brought it up to be honest because the whole luck discussion is silly to me as I don't even believe in luck anyway.
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N. Texas was not 0-4 going into the game, they were 0-2. 1 of their losses was to Oklahoma, who is one of the top 3 teams in the country, and the other loss was on the road at SMU.

FAU beat a bad Middle Tennessee team, and a bad Minnesota team who turned the ball over 7 times against them. Still, FAU only beat Minnesota by 3 despite receiving 7 turnovers.

I was on N. Texas +7, and while I make bad plays, this was not one of them. N. Texas moved the ball at will and pretty much controlled the game. FAU was fortunate to receive 3 turnovers and they still only covered by 3.

I would make the N. Texas +7 bet again a hundred times, and the way the game played out, I'd probably win 80 of them.

That said, you have been on a tear with your picks, and when you're hot, teams come through for you.
 
gridironguy said:
Even if TT would have caught the TD pass at the end, they would have only won 52-49.

No cover.
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I am pretty sure CB got the line @ -3 as soon as it hit the books, which is why he said he woulda been 4-1-1. Anyone can go back and look at any game they bet, or most of em that are close anyways, and point out 1 or 2 plays that went the wrong or right way and say "that is why I did or didnt cover." It's just alot easier to point out the bad luck because you want to vent, and there is no better place to do it than here.

I did straight up tail your FAU play last week CB, but I am on ULM this week. I still refuse to believe that the Warhawks are as bad as they are playing right now, and I think this big time conference game will be their game to start making a little noise in the Sun Belt. I think they have a pretty good shot at winning SU, but I cant see them losing by more than 10 here. Hopefully it will be on gameplan so I can watch it, Gameplan has been GARBAGE this year. hopefully it will have some better, more interesting games now that conference play is heating up, but thus far, my first year of it has been terrible.
 
No feelings on the flyboys taking down the midshipmen? I know dogs are not your style, but +2.5, is not much of a doggie
 
PokeyFSU said:
I am pretty sure CB got the line @ -3 as soon as it hit the books, which is why he said he woulda been 4-1-1. Anyone can go back and look at any game they bet, or most of em that are close anyways, and point out 1 or 2 plays that went the wrong or right way and say "that is why I did or didnt cover." It's just alot easier to point out the bad luck because you want to vent, and there is no better place to do it than here.

I did straight up tail your FAU play last week CB, but I am on ULM this week. I still refuse to believe that the Warhawks are as bad as they are playing right now, and I think this big time conference game will be their game to start making a little noise in the Sun Belt. I think they have a pretty good shot at winning SU, but I cant see them losing by more than 10 here. Hopefully it will be on gameplan so I can watch it, Gameplan has been GARBAGE this year. hopefully it will have some better, more interesting games now that conference play is heating up, but thus far, my first year of it has been terrible.
Click to expand...


I admit that the Troy plan isn't for the faint of heart but I always like to go against mediocre one dimensional teams when they are in this type of situation, as I expect both teams to score at will, but think that Troy will basically outscore em in the second half to get the cover. Actually hope this one is on gameplan as well, as it should be a fun one to watch. I agree with ya that Gameplan hasn't been that great this year as it seems most of the time all they have had on is espn radio and no games, but oh well, hopefully the lineups will start getting more packed with some exciting games starting this week.

Yes, I did get the line at -3 as I posted it as soon as I locked it in on Monday when it came out, but I am not gonna keep going back and forth on this stuff as it is irrelevant at this point, and I am beginning to have flashbacks to that other place haha...

Best of luck to everyone this week!
 
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