Carolinablue Week 4 College Football

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 3 Recap - 7-5-1 +1.15 units

Year to Date 26-10-1 +14.55 Units

Week 4 Plays

Thursday
304 Tulane -2 110 vs Houston

Friday
305 Utah -3 110 at USC

Saturday
314 Ohio State vs Miami Ohio O58 110
319 UCF -10.5 110 at Pitt
321 ULL +4.5 115 at Ohio
331 Coastal Carolina -15 110 at UMass
360 Alabama vs S Miss O59.5 110
363 LSU -19.5 110 at Vandy
366 UNC -2.5 110 vs App State
394 FSU vs Louisville O60 115
408 FAU -36 115 vs Wagner
310075 Brown -6 115 at Bryant
 
Last edited:
Good luck. I’m waiting on the 5D open but was hoping they would get that Thursday line wrong and favor Houston by a couple.
 
M.O.T said:
Good luck. I’m waiting on the 5D open but was hoping they would get that Thursday line wrong and favor Houston by a couple.
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Yeah, I was hoping to get a couple with Tulane, but was fine with taking it up to -3, so have no problem laying 2 in that one.
 
carolinablue said:
Funny, Indiana just came out at +10.5 at home vs UConn and was quickly taken off the board.
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I knew it would be an automatic void by the way (line is actually -27.5 now), just found it funny that it was up on the board for about 10 seconds (and yes I did try and submit to no avail haha)
 
carolinablue said:
Week 3 Recap - 7-5-1 +1.15 units

Year to Date 26-10-1 +14.55 Units

Week 4 Plays

Thursday
304 Tulane -2 110 vs Houston

Friday
305 Utah -3 110 at USC

Saturday
319 UCF -10.5 110 at Pitt
321 ULL +4.5 115 at Ohio
331 Coastal Carolina -15 110 at UMass
363 LSU -19.5 110 at Vandy
366 UNC -2.5 110 vs App State
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UNC -2.5 :tiphat:
 
Shinsuke got the win over the Miz tonight at the Clash, so nice way to start the week as that Shinsuke play at -250 was never in doubt thanks to Sami Zayn on the outside running interference.
 
As always, feel free to fire away with thoughts or questions about this week’s card or what you thought about Clash of the Champions haha
 
Same viewpoint on Alabama game by the way as I expect that total to keep moving up as well, so definitely get these now if you like em
 
Also expect the FSU total to move up so again if you like it, get it now as I wouldn’t be surprised to see it move to at least 63. I think the total gets into the 70s so still good value at the current 61.
 
carolinablue said:
Same viewpoint on Alabama game by the way as I expect that total to keep moving up as well, so definitely get these now if you like em
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Like this over, with the Alabama defense so far, they’ll give up some points late when the Tide goes into victory mode.....I’ll have to stay away from their 1 half and 1quarter plays.....TT overs should be the way to go with Alabama this year me thinks...
Gl

Also, thanks for the Charlotte play, hit six plays in that game alone to atone for that Alabama backdoor.....
 
number2 said:
Like this over, with the Alabama defense so far, they’ll give up some points late when the Tide goes into victory mode.....I’ll have to stay away from their 1 half and 1quarter plays.....TT overs should be the way to go with Alabama this year me thinks...
Gl

Also, thanks for the Charlotte play, hit six plays in that game alone to atone for that Alabama backdoor.....
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Yeah I think SMiss should be good for around 14-17 so all Alabama has to do is be Alabama and I’m all good in this one. Given the way the last one ended, I expect at least one defensive TD by the Tide as well as they will come out with a chip on their shoulder IMO.

Glad to hear I helped out a bit last weekend with the 49ers!
 
number2 said:
Like this over, with the Alabama defense so far, they’ll give up some points late when the Tide goes into victory mode.....I’ll have to stay away from their 1 half and 1quarter plays.....TT overs should be the way to go with Alabama this year me thinks...
Gl

Also, thanks for the Charlotte play, hit six plays in that game alone to atone for that Alabama backdoor.....
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Almost forgot..I actually ended up with a push in that one as I got it early at 24. Funny thing is, as soon as the XP was missed earlier I told myself “This is gonna screw me later”, so it was only fitting that SC scored late because I could see it coming from a mile away haha.
 
BOL. I'd say COC was okay. Highlights for me would be The Revival winning and seeing Luke Harper, the rest of the card was nothing special.
carolinablue said:
As always, feel free to fire away with thoughts or questions about this week’s card or what you thought about Clash of the Champions haha
Click to expand...
 
J. Ru Perrot said:
BOL. I'd say COC was okay. Highlights for me would be The Revival winning and seeing Luke Harper, the rest of the card was nothing special.
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Thanks for the thoughts as I always enjoy discussing the wonderful world of pro wrestling! I thought that Sasha and Becky showed a lot of intensity and the crowd was really engaged in that one throughout. Also, the end when the lights when out, the crowd went crazy as you can never go wrong with an appearance by The Fiend, awesome way to close the show!
 
Ruger35 said:
What would your cap be on Utah? Looking at -4 right now.
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I actually think Utah wins by 8, something like 28-20, but I make my plays based on variance so anything less than a "gap" of at least 5 doesn't get a second look from me unless there are additional variables involved. Using that as context, I would not play 4, but that is just the way I do things. Some may say "well, if you think they win by 8, there really isn't a big difference between -3 or -4", and while that may be technically true, I try to stay very disciplined in my approach, so for me, there is a huge difference between 3 and 4, especially with it being a road game for Utah and USC potentially being in "wounded animal" mode after last week. Basically a long winded way of saying I wouldn't play -4 even though it should hit. Hope that helps provide some context.

CB
 
Tom Sarefield said:
Blue,
With you Utes and also UCF til that train derails.
BOL this week!!
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Always good to see you in the thread Tom! Yeah, it has been a crazy ride so far, so this is where discipline and staying true to course will pay off. As the lines get tighter, discipline will be rewarded, so kinda like with an IRA, I just focus on the long term and don't let the week by week volatility cause me to do anything ill-advised in the short term. Here's to another profitable week!

CB
 
Had 12 plays each of the first 2 weeks, then 13 last week with A&T being play #13. Shoulda stuck with 12 haha. Not even trying to have a certain number of plays each week, as I just submit em based on what I see, but do find it interesting that right now I am sitting on 10 plays + whatever FCS plays I post on Saturday. Anyone want to guess how many of those I will have LOL.

Hope you guys have a profitable week!
CB
 
Yeah I wish I had jumped on Utah earlier as I think their style is likely to frustrate USC. Maybe the air raid wears down the DL and USC has an easier time in the 2H? I don’t know, looking forward to watching this one and will probably get involved at some point.
 
carolinablue said:
I actually think Utah wins by 8, something like 28-20, but I make my plays based on variance so anything less than a "gap" of at least 5 doesn't get a second look from me unless there are additional variables involved. Using that as context, I would not play 4, but that is just the way I do things. Some may say "well, if you think they win by 8, there really isn't a big difference between -3 or -4", and while that may be technically true, I try to stay very disciplined in my approach, so for me, there is a huge difference between 3 and 4, especially with it being a road game for Utah and USC potentially being in "wounded animal" mode after last week. Basically a long winded way of saying I wouldn't play -4 even though it should hit. Hope that helps provide some context.

CB
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I try to think like you in the regard of room for error. I like Utha, but haven't watched USC yet this year. I know they are a dumpster fire and wanting to fire Helton which gives me pause. Guess I'll try to catch the game this weekend for the rest of the year.
 
carolinablue said:
Always good to see you in the thread Tom! Yeah, it has been a crazy ride so far, so this is where discipline and staying true to course will pay off. As the lines get tighter, discipline will be rewarded, so kinda like with an IRA, I just focus on the long term and don't let the week by week volatility cause me to do anything ill-advised in the short term. Here's to another profitable week!

CB
Click to expand...

I would be so much better served to take that advice, lol.
 
That UNC line just looks weird. App St favored in Boone if were played there? WF was 5 pt fav there in 2017. I'd think UNC would be -3 there which would lead to a bigger line at home.

It just seems too easy. And we know App State is good, although Charlotte hung with them better than score implies. New HC/OC and DC have been at NCSt, so they are used to watching UNC film, just not with this staff.

UNC off the loss probably serves to refocus them to get back on track. It's just hard to not like UNC essentially just to win.
 
I agree that the line looks very light based on Sagarin Power Ratings and FPI. Bill Connelly with ESPN has App State 8-9 points better than NC on a neutral field. As long as NC takes the game seriously they should cover the -3
 
s--k said:
That UNC line just looks weird. App St favored in Boone if were played there? WF was 5 pt fav there in 2017. I'd think UNC would be -3 there which would lead to a bigger line at home.

It just seems too easy. And we know App State is good, although Charlotte hung with them better than score implies. New HC/OC and DC have been at NCSt, so they are used to watching UNC film, just not with this staff.

UNC off the loss probably serves to refocus them to get back on track. It's just hard to not like UNC essentially just to win.
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Given the injuries we are facing and the continued uncertainty around whether Strowbridge will play or not, I think 3 is about right. With that said, I think that establishing the running game will be crucial, because if we can get that going, it will open things up for Howell and he should be able to tear apart that App secondary as I am expecting him to connect on more than a few long bombs on Saturday. Will be a crazy atmosphere with the sellout (even I couldn't get tickets haha) as this is a huge game for both programs.
 
No more Duck and Hays at CB for App. I haven't seen them yet this year though. Go Heels!
 
Unfortunately didn't get to see any of the Tulane game last night as it sounds like a missed a fun one...especially the ending LOL. Wow, definitely got lucky on that call, but I will take it! Let's see if Utah can keep the profit train rolling tonight as we head into the weekend. Best of luck tonight guys!

CB
 
Waiting on a couple of FBS v FCS matchups to come out at BOL tomorrow morning, as I have my eye on 2-3 totals that hopefully come out at the same number that is currently at 5D. If so, then I will definitely add those to the card when they get posted.
 
carolinablue said:
Unfortunately didn't get to see any of the Tulane game last night as it sounds like a missed a fun one...especially the ending LOL. Wow, definitely got lucky on that call, but I will take it! Let's see if Utah can keep the profit train rolling tonight as we head into the weekend. Best of luck tonight guys!

CB
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Questionable field goal call that wasn't reviewable because it went over the upright. If he calls that no good like he could have then Houston covers.
 
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