Carolinablue Week 3 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 2 = 7-5 (Weekday plays 0-2, Saturday plays 7-3)

Year to Date 12-10 (54.5%)

Recap can be found at end of week 2 thread.

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Week 3 Plays (Baylor play voided b/c of weather)

5-3 WEEK 3 --> 17-13 OVERALL (57%)

ZONA -9.5 115 LOSER
MTSU +17 120 WINNER
BUFFALO -5.5 110 LOSER
WMU -6.5 120 WINNER
OKLAHOMA -19.5 110 WINNER
CMU -2.5 130 WINNER
CAL -13.5 120 LOSER
ISU +14 120 WINNER

5-1 NOW ON SUNBELT SIDES
5-1 NOW ON ROAD DOGS

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Since I am now a whopping 3-1 on my dog plays, you guys may be seeing a remarkable transition as maybe just maybe, you might see up to an incredible 5% of my season card being dog plays instead of the normal 1% haha. Now watch this week, I will lose all my dog plays and go back to one of those crazy periods like I did in cbb when I played like 50 favs in a row.
 
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Would you take WMU up to 8? I made the line 12 myself, so a little value but not as much as at 7 or 6'.
 
RJ Esq said:
Would you take WMU up to 8? I made the line 12 myself, so a little value but not as much as at 7 or 6'.
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Yeah, I actually like em up to 9.5 as I think it will be a high scoring affair that sees WMU winning by DD in the end, as Idaho just doesn't have the defense to stop the Bronco rushing or passing attack, as evidenced by the yardage they surrendered against ISU on Saturday. I will lay less than DD all day, even on the road, when going up against a team who has won once in 13 tries, and that only win being against a pathetic squad like the Bengals.
 
Most likely will play, but waiting on the line movement on...

UNC
Oregon
Zona
North Texas (hey, I am 4-1 in Sunbelt games, so don't laugh haha)
Arkie State

Also considering BGSU and Eastern. Cal up to 14 now. Missed the opener on that one too, as I wasn't able to commit full time attention to it this week, so got what I could when I could, but Cal was one of the casualties as I know it opened less than 13, which is what I wanted.
 
MTSU +16.5
BGSU +15.5

Any thoughts as to which is the stronger dog play, as I am considering one or both on my short list.
 
I'm looking at Middle Tennessee State. I watched the UK/L'Ville game and in my opinion, Kentucky does not have the offense to separate themselves by 17.
 
Houghton Chemical said:
I'm looking at Middle Tennessee State. I watched the UK/L'Ville game and in my opinion, Kentucky does not have the offense to separate themselves by 17.
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Thanks HC, looks like I missed the opens on both of those as I think they were 17.5 or somewhere around there for both. Hoping the line goes back up as I like 17.5 as a number moreso than 16.5 as worst case I see this one in the 34-17 category.
 
ADDED CMU -2.5 130

This line is an overreaction to Ohio's performance this past weekend, as CMU is still the cream of the crop in the MAC and LeFevour is gonna have a field day against Bobcat defense, as he will show why he will be playing on Sundays very soon.
 
Interesting line moves at the greek on BGSU (now 16, even though just dropped to 15 elsewhere) and Zona (now 10 105, even though 10 110 elsewhere and juiced up at 10 on Pinny). Hmmmm...
 
ADDED CAL 13.5 120

Said I would take Cal at anything under 14 as I figured this one would be more in the 17.5 range, even given the road trip and the projected Terp bounceback after the lackluster effort by Maryland the first two weeks. Just don't see Maryland putting up more than 17 at the most with the patchwork offense they have down there in College Park right now, so hard not to like Cal, as they should be able to put up at least 5 TDs in this one. Wouldn't be surprised if this one ended up something like 45-17 to be honest.

Lastly, I think this line starts creeping towards 15.5 so figured I would take it now, as I just don't see how it sits on 14 the rest of the night.

Not sure why the Zona line is going down, but gonna wait and see if it hits 9.5 110. Same deal with Oregon as it is 6.5 110 at BM but 7 110 at the Greek. Curious to see which way it moves.
 
ADDED MTSU +17 120

Sunbelt special of the week...

4-1 on Sunbelt sides and this week I am going with MTSU +17 120 on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats, as I expect the Wildcats to create havoc for the young MTSU OL, but Kentucky is having their own problems on the line as well, so I wouldn't be surprised if the get rushed into a couple turnovers by whichever QB is the flavor of the week in game 3. MTSU has great experience at QB, and this allows them to always have a shot down the stretch, so definitely like getting 17 against a UK offense that doesn't have the firepower right now to blow teams out, and therefore is heavily relying on defense to take care of business. Should be close throughout, so 17 will be nice to have in the back pocket.

I think this line gets closer to 15 or so as the week progresses by the way.

So far, 3 plays involving the MAC and a Sunbelt special...yes I am a true degenerate and proud of it!
 
Yes, I realize that I am taking it on the chin from a juice perspective this week, but between being preoccupied with stuff here at the house causing me to miss some opens I would normally have nailed, and also due to staring some pretty tight lines in the face over at the greek, I am holding my nose and paying the price where appropriate on those lines that are with .5 to 1 of variance this week.
 
Gotta head out for now, but if Zona or Oregon moves my way at either BM or Pinny, it will probably cause a move at the greek as well, so you can be sure I will lock in one or both of those overnight if that happens. Right now hoping for Zona at 9 or -9.5 110 and the Ducks at 6 or 6.5 110. Talk to you guys later this week.
 
Added Zona 9.5 115 last night.

Hoping ISU gets to 14 as I like 2 TDs in a rivalry game where ISU has won something like 8 out of the last 11. This one usually plays close and I just don't see Iowa having the firepower to blow out ISU in this one, but would love to get 14 or more.
 
halfpoint said:
CB - Any chance of Ducks losing outright at Purdue?
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I liked Oregon up until about 6.5, but don't like em as much now, mainly because I am not sure they are gonna dominate Purdue on the road which is a place their young guys haven't experienced yet.

Also, Purdue has some key guys with solid experience, and I am a big proponent of the experience vs youth angle, so hard for me to lay 8 in this one with an untested road team going up against a saavy experienced home team.

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Purdue won SU, by like a FG.
 
ride that buffalo train ..... its got pieces of me all over the track.

gl this wek cb.

thinking similarly to you on cmich line.
 
Hey CB ! Good Luck this week .

Since you are clearly well informed about UNC would ask your opinion about the game and team for 2008. Most of my early CFB research early relies on reading whats available via the net . So I know there were some who felt UNC Could challenge VaTech for the division . Think they returned 18 starters as well .

Basically I see the line as real soft looking at what happened in Game 1 for each and how Rutgers was lined vs Fresno. The tricky part is what to take from UNC 1st game IMO . They led 14-0 had a weather delay then think there subdivision opponent reeled off 20 straight pts after the delay . Which I heard most of the crowd left as well . So did UNC simple become disinterested ? Its your opener at home and I am sure excitement is rampant even playing such a weak opponent as I believe the game was still sold out . So from a players standpoint you jukmp out 14-0 feel good the weather delay comes and then the rain for nearly 2 hours of hanging around . Start up the stadium probably is empty the energy is gone and your left falt going through the motions . The opponent scores makes it 14-7 and thinks okay we are in this game and momentum builds for them ...

Sort of allowing for a flat performance for UNC.....Rutgers has issues that I dont know how correctable they are . The WRs still dont catch every pass and Teel always seems a tad off from a great throw . Dont recall a TE to throw to . How are they goona kick FGs ? Does this kid rebound ? The defense looked shitty in the 2nd H and the running game so-so.......

I am on the fence because Rutgers did play a very good 1st H vs Fresno and you kinda new it was curtains for them in the 2nd H. My thought is people fully expect a bounce back and have no doubt it will occur chances are they tend to not occur because there flaws are overlooked .....

Thoughts when you have time ?? BOL again bro this week...:cheers:
 
linewatcher said:
hey cb, its currently clones +14 at bm... get it while it's hot :)
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Only thing I have at BM right now is free play winnings from 1st 2 weeks, and I have already used those up to lock in early lines on some of my week 3's, so I am at the mercy of the greek at this point. Didn't reload my BM account after cbb as it was somewhat of a c/s headache after I took out my cash at season's end, so decided not to bother for cfb, even though it kills me to miss all these opens. Only had betpoints cash left when cfb started, so tryin to turn that into a million haha.
 
SportsNut said:
Hey CB ! Good Luck this week .

Since you are clearly well informed about UNC would ask your opinion about the game and team for 2008. Most of my early CFB research early relies on reading whats available via the net . So I know there were some who felt UNC Could challenge VaTech for the division . Think they returned 18 starters as well .

Basically I see the line as real soft looking at what happened in Game 1 for each and how Rutgers was lined vs Fresno. The tricky part is what to take from UNC 1st game IMO . They led 14-0 had a weather delay then think there subdivision opponent reeled off 20 straight pts after the delay . Which I heard most of the crowd left as well . So did UNC simple become disinterested ? Its your opener at home and I am sure excitement is rampant even playing such a weak opponent as I believe the game was still sold out . So from a players standpoint you jukmp out 14-0 feel good the weather delay comes and then the rain for nearly 2 hours of hanging around . Start up the stadium probably is empty the energy is gone and your left falt going through the motions . The opponent scores makes it 14-7 and thinks okay we are in this game and momentum builds for them ...

Sort of allowing for a flat performance for UNC.....Rutgers has issues that I dont know how correctable they are . The WRs still dont catch every pass and Teel always seems a tad off from a great throw . Dont recall a TE to throw to . How are they goona kick FGs ? Does this kid rebound ? The defense looked shitty in the 2nd H and the running game so-so.......

I am on the fence because Rutgers did play a very good 1st H vs Fresno and you kinda new it was curtains for them in the 2nd H. My thought is people fully expect a bounce back and have no doubt it will occur chances are they tend to not occur because there flaws are overlooked .....

Thoughts when you have time ?? BOL again bro this week...:cheers:
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Great thoughts and input, appreciate your taking the time to post em. Here is my perspective on McNeese State and also the line for the Rutgers game. Just gonna ramble on for a while so bear with me....

First, the weather delay really threw things for a loop and as a result it is difficult to figure out exactly what to take away from this game, as the Heels obviously came out ready to play in front of the sellout crowd, as they fed off the energy to jump out to an early 14-0 lead, but after the delay, they didn't have any sort of spark, which wasn't helped by the fact that over half the crowd ended up leaving since there was no initial announcement as to when/if the game would even be continued due to the severe weather in the area.

I give McNeese State credit, because their read option offense caused all sorts of problems for our defense, and it didn't help that we never seemed to be able to put any sort of pressure on the QB or get into the backfield to disrupt things.

McNeese controlled the time of possession as we couldn't get a running game going to save our lives (Tate's record yardage came from receptions and returns not runs from scrimmage) and they also were quicker to the ball and really leveraged their strenghts in this one as well.

With all that said, it is hard to gauge how good we are, because playing against "gimmick" offenses (I use that term loosely, but hopefully you know what I mean), can make defenses look worse than they really are (kinda like when a team gives up 300 yds rushing to Navy but still wins, it doesn't mean the team sucks against the run).

The big thing to keep in mind is that after McNeese went up 20-14, UNC took control of the game with 3 consecutive TDs, which is a big deal, because the Tarheels of old would probably have lost this one in the end b/c they would have panicked once they relinquished the lead. This shows some advancement vs previous years and that is important as the season progresses. McNeese got a TD late to make the score respectable, but this one could have easily ended up 35-20 with UNC even covering the spread depending on whether one got 14.5 or 15.5.

At the end of the day, I am actually going to lay off this one, because I want to see how the OL and DL performs against a fairly comparable team that will try to go toe to toe in the trenches. This will be a good barometer for the Heels, and I actually think we have a shot to win SU, but also keep in mind that we haven't won a non conference road game outside of the state of NC since 2002, so I would definitely go with the pts vs ML if I were to play UNC in this one.

Not a big fan of 5 as a number, as I was hoping for 6 or more, but I think this will be a toss up that can go either way, but just don't see the value getting 4.5 or 5 on the road until UNC proves to me that they can win a big non conf road game. Should be a fun one to watch and I can't wait till Thursday night.

Sorry for the long winded response, but wanted to give my perspective so you can take it for what it is worth.

Later,
CB
 
Here is more info on UNC's inability to win outside the state, as this may be helpful for those of you considering a UNC ML play this Thursday night...

Carolina has not won outside the state since its 38-35 victory at Arizona State on Oct. 5, 2002, a span of 20 games.

So there's been no need for celebration at 15,000 feet -- something they want to change. Immediately.

"It would be a great win just to play on national television, play in front of a huge audience ... play efficient in every aspect of the game and show everybody what we have,'' said offensive lineman Garrett Reynolds.
UNC (1-0) came close to that on a couple of occasions last season.

Under new coach Butch Davis, the Tar Heels were 0-6 on the road, including 0-3 outside the state. But two of those three losses came by seven points or fewer.

A far cry from the 17 straight out-of-N.C. defeats under former coach John Bunting that included school records for most yardage allowed (during a 46-16 shellacking at Utah in 2004) and most points allowed (during a 69-14 laugher at Louisville in 2005). Ten of the 17 losses were blowouts by at least 20 points.
 
Was glad to see you on the Heels this week CB. I was liking them from the get go and feel better about them after reading this thread. Good luck this weekend.

Doggy
 
scdoggy said:
Was glad to see you on the Heels this week CB. I was liking them from the get go and feel better about them after reading this thread. Good luck this weekend.

Doggy
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Thanks for the post SC. Just to clarify, UNC didn't make the cut for me in terms of actual plays. They were on my leans list, but I won't actually be playing them this week. I do like them at +5, but just think the other plays on my card are a little stronger, so didn't wanna force a play just because they are my team and will be in the spotlight Thursday night.
 
Local Paper Notes - Zona

New Mexico's defense may prepare for a pass-first offense, but the Lobos better have a contingency plan.

Arizona will head to Albuquerque on Saturday with every intention of throwing the ball 30 or 40 times, but more than ready to hand off to tailback Nic Grigsby.

The Wildcats are daring teams to drop back more defenders to stop the pass - and Toledo did.

The Rockets paid for that strategy in a 41-16 loss to Arizona on Saturday. Grigsby rushed for 135 yards, including three first-half scores.
"The goal offensively is to be able to throw it when they allow you to throw it, and run it when they allow you to run it," UA offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes said. "Instead of . . . not being able to run it very well and forcing the passing game (last year), we're a better football team and that gives us an opportunity to do both."

The Wildcats' spread offense has a reputation for being only about the pass, but now the Cats have added diversity.
Grigsby's back-to-back 100-yard plus rushing games should have defenses on their toes, and coaches up late at night figuring ways to defend the Wildcats.

New Mexico (0-2) gets the next chance at 5 p.m. Saturday, with UA out to avenge a 29-27 loss last year to the Lobos.
"We take it as a gift," Grigsby said of teams dropping back to defend the pass first. "Give me the ball - I will take it every play."

Grigsby ranks eighth nationally in rushing with 152 yards per game.
The sophomore from Whittier, Calif., made Toledo's defense look foolish with 7:57 left in the second quarter, when he ran through the lane to the left side of the field, stopped, and then cut back around the corner and into the end zone for a 27-yard touchdown to give the Wildcats a 17-3 lead.

"You hand it to him and tell him to kind of head this way and see what happens," Dykes said. "That's the biggest thing with running backs; you can't overcoach those guys. You have to tell them kind of where to go, and let them make decisions. He's a very instinctive runner and he does a great job of making big plays."

When Grigsby is not showing off his speed and cutback skills, he uses his power. He burst 7 yards for a TD with 30 seconds left in the first quarter to put UA up 10-0. Just before the half, he was stopped for a 3-yard loss, only to turn the next play into an 11-yard TD to make it 24-6.
Grigsby, with five touchdowns already, is not supposed to be the focal point of this offense. And he isn't.

Quarterback Willie Tuitama is still directing the flow, completing 78 percent of his passes. Grigsby has helped Tuitama keep teams honest while they try to cover receivers Mike Thomas, Delashaun Dean, Terrell Turner and Juron Criner.
"(Toledo) only had five guys in the box," Tuitama said, "and tried to cover everything up on the outside. We went inside."
Sounds simple.

So far this season, it has been. The Wildcats have the nation's third best scoring offense at 55.5 points per game.
Tuitama is ranked 12th nationally in passing efficiency after completing 25 of 33 throws for 292 yards against Toledo.

The Cats have scored 111 points in back-to-back games, the first time they reached the century mark in combined games since 1954. They also scored 40 or more points in straight games for the first time since 1982.
Toledo believed rushing three players was enough. The Rockets were wrong.

"That goes back to taking the run when they give it to us. I was really proud of Willie because we called a lot of pass plays and he got to the line of scrimmage and checked off to a lot of runs," Dykes said. "Sometimes that's hard for a quarterback to do because he wants to drop back and throw it. That's the thing as an offense that we have to learn, to be methodical."

Dykes helped develop this type of spread offense as an assistant at Texas Tech, where he saw other teams use extreme defenses. "Heck, we use to see one rusher," Dykes said. "For us, it all begins with us being able to throw it well enough to force people to cover the pass."
And that, in turn, has left running room.
 
New Mexico ranks 115th out of 118 Football Bowl Subdivision teams with a turnover margin of minus-2.5...the Lobos have committed 7 turnovers (4 interceptions and 3 fumbles) while gaining just 2...last year, UNM's 7th turnover of the season came in the fourth game

New Mexico is 102nd in the nation in total offense (278.0 ypg), 108th in scoring offense (12.5 ppg) and 115th in pass efficiency (72.37 rating)

The Wildcats have a 43-19-3 overall lead in the series, but UNM won 29-27 last year in Tucson, in a game that featured 773 yards passing. Donovan Porterie threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns for New Mexico. Willie Tuitama passed for 446 yards - second-most ever for Arizona - and three touchdowns, but Arizona couldn't overcome critical fumbles and penalties. It was the Lobos' first win there since 1975.

Arizona has a 21-9-2 series lead in Albuquerque with the Lobos' last victory coming in 1976 (21-15).
 
Local Paper Notes - Kentucky

MTSU Coach Rick Stockstill said he doesn't think his team will suffer a hangover after the win over the Terps.

"I would rather (have to) bring them down than try to get them up," Stockstill said. "They know how we approach things. I promise you when 3 o'clock gets here and we have our team meeting and after we give out our awards, it'll be behind us. We know that just because we beat Maryland doesn't mean we'll beat Kentucky or Arkansas State or Florida Atlantic or whoever. We've got to go out and continue to practice and prepare physically and mentally the same way we've done."


MTSU, which lost its season opener at home to Troy, 31-17, runs the spread, an offense that the Wildcats defense has struggled with. Quarterback Joe Craddock, who passed for 290 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 51 yards against Louisville. is back. The 5-foot-11, 197-pound senior threw for 256 yards and two scores against Maryland.


The Blue Raiders also welcome back junior tailback Phillip Tanner, who burned the Cards for 144 yards and two TDs, including a 79-yard scoring run.

The Middle Tennessee attack features a lot of spread option, misdirection, zone reads and quarterback-run game while mixing in formations with four or five receivers. That figures to pose a huge challenge even for a UK defense that is third in the nation in points allowed per game (2.5), 10th in total defense (185.0 yards per game) and third in pass-efficiency defense after two games.


"I think they're clearly a very dangerous team for us," Brooks said. "They do some things offensively that have given us problems in the past."

"They remind me of Florida," Jarmon said. "Now, they're not as fast as Florida, but they do a lot of the same things. Doing well against them could help get us prepared down the road for teams like Florida who run the spread."


Jarmon, a native of the Memphis area, said he knows a few MTSU players, and he figures they'll be hungry to make a name against another BCS opponent.


"A lot of those guys have chips on their shoulders because maybe a bigger college told them they were an inch or two too short to play at their program," he said. "They'll come out with something to prove."
 
UAB still on the short list, but my only fear is that they end up losing like 52-21 or something crazy like that. Have a stronger lean towards them instead of SMU or NT though, b/c Tenn IMO is the weaker of the three offenses that these three lighweights are playing this week. Would rather take my chances getting 30 against Tenn than getting 36 against Tech or 41 against LSU, but not completely sold on the play yet. Doing some reading now on both UAB and Tenn, so feel free to chime in if you think I am off base on this one or the other 2 big dogs I am on the verge of eliminating off the consideration list.

Local Paper Recap - Tennessee

The Tennessee coach knows his next opponent, a downtrodden UAB program, is 0-2. He knows the Blazers gave up 49 points in a loss to Florida Atlantic. And he knows they are ranked No. 117 out of 118 teams in total defense.

Still, with upsets abounding across the nation once again, including one involving the Volunteers last week, no one is taking anything for granted.
"With the recruiting numbers being as they are, the spread offenses, those can be great equalizers,'' Fulmer said. "Everybody you play in this day and age is a dangerous football team.''

UT will be a massive favorite on Saturday in its home opener against the Blazers at 11:30 a.m. But there still needs to be massive improvements across the board.
Five Volunteers need to have stellar practices as UT tries to gain confidence this weekend before heading into Southeastern Conference play:
RB Arian Foster

It's become chic to pile on Foster, even though he produces impressive numbers. Against UCLA he had 96 yards rushing, including a 41-yarder. He was good in pass protection and had four receptions. But a costly fumble deep in Bruins territory was a here-we-go-again situation.
What's puzzling about Foster is that he probably fumbles less than most backs in the Southeastern Conference; it's just the timing of them. They seem to come at crucial times, which stick out more in one's memory.
The staff will continue to stress fundamentals in how to hold the ball, but if another crucial fumble occurs, the coaches will have a tough decision to make regarding who carries the ball late in close games.
QB Jonathan Crompton

Forget about Crompton's less-than-stellar numbers against UCLA, or a botched snap, or the interception. The coaching staff needs to take a big-picture approach to Crompton this week.
It's less about checking down and making the right reads. That's because Crompton did make a handful of NFL-type throws at UCLA and did manage the game well at times. This is more about getting him to settle in, especially during crucial times.
Expect the staff to move the pocket more this weekend to utilize Crompton's mobility. A shot of confidence will do Crompton wonders.
CB Dennis Rogan

The sophomore is one of UT's most consistent players, but the UCLA game proved he is human. Rogan saved more than one game for the Volunteers on special teams last season, but against the Bruins he had two punt returns for a total of 16 yards.
He did have a nice 29-yard kickoff return, but his problems came more at defensive back. Rogan had only one tackle and did not record a pass breakup. He was part of a unit that was picked apart by UCLA quarterback Kevin Craft in the second half. Rogan isn't one to get down on himself too badly, so a bounce-back performance this weekend should be in order.
PK Daniel Lincoln

The sophomore is one of UT's most mentally tough players. He will need to show it now. Dating back to the Outback Bowl last season, Lincoln is 1 of 7 on field-goal attempts. Granted, he missed attempts of 51 and 55 yards at UCLA and made a clutch 47-yarder to force overtime, but Lincoln missed a 34-yarder to end the game.
Fulmer said Lincoln has performed well in the three practices since the UCLA game, and while a game-winning field goal doesn't appear to be on the agenda this weekend, there will be plenty of chances later this season.
UT coaching staff

Pick one. The offense never showed any rhythm, the defense failed to adjust in the second half, and there was a special teams gaffe that UCLA turned into a touchdown. This was an across-the-board issue.
The staff needed to look internally before grading players following the loss to the Bruins. You can only blame the players so much when the coaches are in charge of putting them in correct positions on the field.
 
Here are the 3 road dogs I still have on my short list. Let me know pros and cons of each as I am just starting to look over info on each play at this point. Each is borderline with regard to variance from my line, so right now looking at a variety of different angles to make sure I didn't miss something in my line, since the variance is pretty close.

UAB +30
ISU +13.5 (would only take 14 or more, as I hate 13.5 as a number)
Nevada +26.5 (again, hate 26.5 so would only take 27 or more)
 
Gotta love it when coaches comment on the spread haha


Iowa State could defeat Iowa on Saturday, and for 10 consecutive years for that matter, and it still wouldn’t change how both football programs are perceived.

The Cyclones will always be considered the lesser of the two programs despite having won seven of the past 10 games in the series.

Because how else can you explain the fact that a 2-0 Iowa team is favored by 13 points against a 2-0 Iowa State squad heading into Saturday’s game at Kinnick Stadium?

“Delusional people,” said Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz.

A team supposedly gets three points for hosting, but that still makes Iowa a double-digit favorite, much to Ferentz’s chagrin.

“Point spreads don’t mean anything in this series,” Ferentz said. “We’ve proven that.
“But I’m not telling anybody how to bet.”

Being a decisive underdog only benefits Iowa State because it seems as if the Cyclones always have something to prove or a chip on their shoulder heading into this game.

“I’m sure it doesn’t hurt their cause,” Ferentz said. “But I don’t know how we can be favored against anybody right now … by teens anyway.

“Home field is not worth 13, is it?"

It makes sense that Ferentz would proceed with caution this week because Iowa State is his 800-pound gorilla.

Ferentz has led Iowa to two Big Ten titles, to three double-digit win seasons and to four January bowl games.

But he hasn’t figured out a way to defeat the Cyclones on a regular basis as evidenced by his 3-6 record against them.

It’s one of the great mysteries and bitter disappointments of the Ferentz era.

Why does the team with the better tradition and the higher paid coaches and the bigger stadium and the larger fan base and the more decorated recruits not have the upper hand in this series?

It’s sort of like if the New York Yankees got thumped by the New York Mets on a regular basis for at least a decade. Most people would still give the Yankees the edge simply because of who they are and what they represent.

The most common or the most condescending theory used to explain Iowa State’s recent success is that the game means more to the Cyclones because Iowa has bigger fish to fry. That was especially true when former Hawkeye Dan McCarney coached the Cyclones because it was thought that he wanted nothing more in life than to defeat his alma mater.

This all goes back to the whole perception thing because it suggests that Iowa State doesn’t get Iowa’s best shot.

“It’s a perception that I think is a little skewed,” said Iowa sophomore offensive lineman Julian Vandervelde. “We always try to take it one game at a time and not put more emphasis on one game than another just to make sure that every game is the most important game that week.

“But they definitely do always get our best effort, as does every team that comes into Kinnick.”

There are reasonable explanations for why Iowa State, despite usually being the underdog, has won the seven of the last 10 games against Iowa.

The Cyclones were simply the better team in 1998, 1999 and 2000. And while that wasn’t the case in 2001 and 2002, Iowa still lost both games, mostly because it didn’t have an answer for Iowa State quarterback Seneca Wallace.

Since then, though, the rivalry has mostly been decided by whoever has home-field advantage, the one exception coming in 2003 when Iowa won 40-21 in Ames.

That might help explain the large point spread for Saturday’s game, but it still has more to do with perception. Iowa State will always be the little engine that could, even though most think it can’t.
 
Local Paper Report - Iowa

IOWA CITY — This time, it won't be a glorified scrimmage for Ricky Stanzi.

Stanzi, a 6-foot-4, 215-pound sophomore, will get the nod at quarterback Saturday when the Hawkeyes (2-0) face Iowa State (2-0) at Kinnick Stadium, according to the depth chart Iowa released Monday. Stanzi made his first career start last week against Florida International, which has lost 24 of its last 25 games, and completed 8 of 10 passes for 162 yards and three touchdowns.

Stanzi nudged ahead of junior Jake Christensen, who started Iowa's last 13 games and who has an 8-6 record as Iowa's No. 1 QB. Iowa Coach Kirk Ferentz said after Saturday's game that he took the emotion, politics and experience angle out of the decision.

"I think we've tried to do that all the way through," he said. "I can't say enough about how both guys are handling it. I don't expect anybody to be happy, that's not the expectation. But I think both guys are handling it like good team guys. That's all I can ask for."

FIU is a nascent Football Bowl Subdivision program from the Sun Belt Conference. The Golden Panthers were a golden ticket to an easy victory.

The Cyclones are a genuine thorn in the Hawkeyes' behinds, winning seven of the last 10 meetings. ISU is from a Bowl Championship Series Conference, the Big 12. It's a program that's building under second-year coach Gene Chizik.

On a scale of 1 to 10, FIU is a 1 when it comes to degree of difficulty. For the Hawkeyes, especially the last 10 seasons, Iowa State is a 9.5.

Chizik earned his college coaching stripes as a defensive coordinator in stops at Auburn and Texas before landing in Ames. Last season in their 15-13 victory at Ames, the Cyclones blitzed a huge percentage of the time.

The one time he was challenged physically last Saturday, Stanzi shed a 280-pound defensive tackle and ran 18 yards for a first down on a second-and-12 play.

"Him coming out of that sack when we had him wrapped up and had a chance to put ourselves in a good third down position, and he comes out of that thing and runs for a first down," FIU Coach Mario Cristóbal said, "tells you how tough of an athlete he is."

No offense, but Saturday will tell you how tough of an athlete Stanzi is.

That is the one thing Iowa coaches saw Christensen develop in heaps last season, when he was sacked 46 times. It's definitely an unknown going into a heated rivalry with a very aggressive defense.

"Unfortunately, Jake got way more practice at that than any of us would've like," Ferentz said. "I think Ricky will do fine in those circumstances. That's part of being a good quarterback. You have to feel things and be able to get away from things at times."

Monday, Chizik said he likes what he's seen out of Stanzi and Christensen. He strains to see a difference, though. There might be a few Iowa fans who would be happy to explain it.

Stanzi leads the Big Ten with a pass efficiency of 200.3. That would rank him sixth in the nation, but the minimum number of attempts to be counted is 30.

"Kind of the same guy, in my opinion," Chizik said. "They both know the offense. They both run the same offense. I don't think it's a matter of anything, it's just the one they choose to play. We'll prepare for both of them the same. We won't change the way we prepare for one versus the other."

The FIU game was the second week Iowa rotated quarterbacks, which hadn't happened since the 2001 season. Kyle McCann and Brad Banks guided the Hawkeyes to a 7-5 record and an Alamo Bowl victory. McCann took the majority of snaps, while Banks mixed in.

In 2002, Banks took the Hawkeyes to a Big Ten co-championship and the Orange Bowl. Since '01, Iowa has gone into the season with a natural progression on the depth chart that produced a solid No. 1 QB. From Nathan Chandler in '03 to Drew Tate's three-year run as starter to Christensen last season, the position has been steady.

It wasn't always that way under Ferentz.

In his first two seasons, Ferentz wasn't afraid to mix and match, whether it was dictated by injury or performance.

McCann started the Ferentz era and was eventually pulled for Randy Reiners. Reiners got hurt, and Scott Mullen got his chance. Mullen got hurt and Jon Beutjer got the call. Beutjer got hurt and the ball went back into McCann's hands.

McCann was named starter in '01. After a fight with an offensive lineman and after McCann was named, Beutjer left the team. That accelerated Banks' move up the depth chart.

"We settled in with Kyle at the end of the 2000 season," Ferentz said, "but up until then, I think it was a round-robin tournament."

After five years of stability, are the Hawkeyes back to a round robin?

Maybe.

Ferentz has said he'd like to narrow it down to one quarterback. After one start against Florida International, it's way too early to make a call. Stanzi knows this.

He was asked if one quarterback would be best for Iowa's offense. Give him points for quick thinking.

"It's best for the offense to execute," Stanzi said. "If it's two or one (quarterback), whatever we need. Whatever that may be, coach (Ferentz) knows and that's his decision. We're just there to play."
 
Pretty sure I will be on ISU by the way, just waiting for the line to hit 14 at the greek as it is still stuck on 13.5. Not sold on the other 2 road dogs though, so more work to do before I make a decision either way.
 
Dollywood said:
Good stuff CB. I am on MTSU, Baylor, Cal an Zona with you. I also strongly lean Nevada with you.

BOL.
Click to expand...


Nevada is another one of those games that I fear ending up something like 52-24. Would love 28.5 but don't think it will get there as I think 26/27 will be where this one will settle. The explosiveness of the Mizzou offense makes me nervous as they always seem to find a way to cover the big spreads at home, so not willing to jump on this one just yet, as Mizzou is one of those teams that might look to make a statement this week to continue their rise up the polls.
 
a couple quick hitters of pros and cons for those leans

uab +30

pros- deceiving final last week against a decent fau team as rb hit a 70+ yard run when fau was running out the clock to make it look more like blowout. 30+ with clock rules is always nice. Florida rival on deck. possible confidence issues with vols placekicker.

cons--vols off of a loss. the way in which vols lost as they dominated the game but found a way to lose at the end.... this might mean they never take foot off gas pedal and stress closing the game out. second consecutive road game for blazers.

isu +13.5

pros - always play iowa tough, instate rival. iowa st more tested as iowa has faced maine and fiu and cyclones faced kent st last week. iowa recent history of low offensive output vs bcs schools.

cons - isu has now lost 9 of last 10 road games by double digits. revenge game for iowa. experienced interior oline of iowa vs inexperienced interior dline of iowa st.

nevada +26.5

pros --nevada played effectively against texas tech last week but settled for fg's. offense poses similar problems for missouri that illinois offense presented. quality qb with solid running game and mizzou has given up over 350 yards passing per game so far vs semo and illinois.. coaching mismatch between ault and pinkel. Running of nevada matches up well vs mizz defense. semo averaged just 1.9 a carry vs southwest baptist but managed 3 yards a rush vs missouri. nevada held texas tech under 300 yards passing last week. Decent chance of thunderstorms to aid big spread dog.

cons-- missouri can put it on you. veteran qb is accurate , knows offense and is a great leader. Speed gap is significant. lippincott out for the year. first road game of season for nevada. missouri may want style points. Just bad matchups defensively all over the field.

my quick hitting pros and cons there.. if lippincott were not hurt i would have already bet nevada and still may, so that is my favorite of those.
 
SportsNut said:
Hey CB ! Good Luck this week .

Since you are clearly well informed about UNC would ask your opinion about the game and team for 2008. Most of my early CFB research early relies on reading whats available via the net . So I know there were some who felt UNC Could challenge VaTech for the division . Think they returned 18 starters as well .

Basically I see the line as real soft looking at what happened in Game 1 for each and how Rutgers was lined vs Fresno. The tricky part is what to take from UNC 1st game IMO . They led 14-0 had a weather delay then think there subdivision opponent reeled off 20 straight pts after the delay . Which I heard most of the crowd left as well . So did UNC simple become disinterested ? Its your opener at home and I am sure excitement is rampant even playing such a weak opponent as I believe the game was still sold out . So from a players standpoint you jukmp out 14-0 feel good the weather delay comes and then the rain for nearly 2 hours of hanging around . Start up the stadium probably is empty the energy is gone and your left falt going through the motions . The opponent scores makes it 14-7 and thinks okay we are in this game and momentum builds for them ...

Sort of allowing for a flat performance for UNC.....Rutgers has issues that I dont know how correctable they are . The WRs still dont catch every pass and Teel always seems a tad off from a great throw . Dont recall a TE to throw to . How are they goona kick FGs ? Does this kid rebound ? The defense looked shitty in the 2nd H and the running game so-so.......

I am on the fence because Rutgers did play a very good 1st H vs Fresno and you kinda new it was curtains for them in the 2nd H. My thought is people fully expect a bounce back and have no doubt it will occur chances are they tend to not occur because there flaws are overlooked .....

Thoughts when you have time ?? BOL again bro this week...:cheers:
Click to expand...



I was just about to say something, as I initially skipped over this, but these are exactly my thoughts on UNC as well.
 
carolinablue said:
Here is more info on UNC's inability to win outside the state, as this may be helpful for those of you considering a UNC ML play this Thursday night...

Carolina has not won outside the state since its 38-35 victory at Arizona State on Oct. 5, 2002, a span of 20 games.

So there's been no need for celebration at 15,000 feet -- something they want to change. Immediately.

"It would be a great win just to play on national television, play in front of a huge audience ... play efficient in every aspect of the game and show everybody what we have,'' said offensive lineman Garrett Reynolds.
UNC (1-0) came close to that on a couple of occasions last season.

Under new coach Butch Davis, the Tar Heels were 0-6 on the road, including 0-3 outside the state. But two of those three losses came by seven points or fewer.

A far cry from the 17 straight out-of-N.C. defeats under former coach John Bunting that included school records for most yardage allowed (during a 46-16 shellacking at Utah in 2004) and most points allowed (during a 69-14 laugher at Louisville in 2005). Ten of the 17 losses were blowouts by at least 20 points.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the response CB . Really aprreciate it.

Looks like I will be UNC . Just a spot where the books in my eyes tip there hand abit . You basically acknowledged what I suspected as far as UNC effort . I do understand the term gimmick type offense and very responsible way to decipher stats IMO. Like you said great job by UNC responding with 3 scores after they went down .

Not much to go on from and Xs and Os standpoint but just gotta think UNC keeps it inside the closing number .....kinda remember the game @ UNC bewteen these two few years back and Rutgers wasnt very impressive but won . ALot has changed in 2 years but would hope that some of those UNC guys remember that day as well.....:cheers:


Hoops -- Good to have some supporters with my viewpoint and think we have a play on UNC here . BOL bro !:cheers:
 
CB, why not tease a few of these and eliminate the closeness in lines for yourself? Its like insurance, if you tease it, you won't need it, if you don't...you do. Thoughts?
 
Rupos said:
CB, why not tease a few of these and eliminate the closeness in lines for yourself? Its like insurance, if you tease it, you won't need it, if you don't...you do. Thoughts?
Click to expand...


Just a personal preference, but I don't play teasers and parlays, ever. Nothing against those who do, but just not something I do, that's all. Best of luck this weekend!
 
Right now leaning towards adding ISU and ILL to the card, but haven't locked em in yet. Don't think I will get the 14 I wanted on ISU so may have to settle for 120 there. ILL at 24 or so is interesting to me, as Juice should have a field day both on the ground and in the air against the Cajuns, but just not sure if ILL can contain the ULL run game enough to cover the big number. See this one as something like 52-28, so open to thoughts as I don't see this spread doing anything but rising b/t now and gametime, but who knows, thanks!
 
Local Paper Info - ULL

The Cajuns learned that senior running back Tyrell Fenroy was cleared after going to the doctor on Monday. Fenroy, who needs nine yards to become the program's all-time leading rusher, missed the second half of UL's 51-21 loss at Southern Miss on Aug. 30 with a head injury.
Fenroy was unavailable for comment after Tuesday's practice because he had a night class.
"He was practicing today," UL coach Rickey Bustle said. "He's good. He's been released."

Senior linebacker Brent Burkhalter finally became eligible when his final summer-school course was processed. The Ruston native missed the Southern Miss game because of the academic issue.
"I'm good," Burkhalter said as he walked off the practice field on Tuesday. "I just learned about it today."
Burkhalter's return fills a much-needed hole at middle linebacker for the Cajuns, who saw Southern Miss run for 427 of its 633 yards in the season opener.

Both Bustle and defensive coordinator Kevin Fouquier said the long-haired Burkhalter would return to the starting lineup against Illinois. Burkhalter, who has started 24 of his last 27 games, was third on the team with 65 tackles last season.
"(Linebackers) coach (Tim) Rebowe got a call today," Bustle said. "As far as we know his academic thing has been cleared up."
Burkhalter also led the team in tackles (61) as a sophomore and was third as a redshirt freshman in total stops (53).

Senior quarterback Mike Desormeaux was glad to hear his former roommate would be back on the field.
"Brenton is a very good football player and has been starting here for four years," Desormeaux said. "His leadership on the field is such a big thing. He knows the defense so well. He picks up tendencies from the other offense very well. I think he is a field general for the defense.
"Having him back will be big for us."

Starting free safety Gerren Blount, who missed the second half against USM after hurting his left knee, has been practicing. Bustle said Blount is questionable against Illinois.

Bustle said senior wide receiver Derrick Smith, last year's leading receiver with 583 yards on 35 catches, is "very doubtful" for Saturday. Smith missed the second half against USM with an ankle injury and has been receiving medical treatment since last week.
 
I hate relationship angles like this one. I know they normally don't come into play, but does add a twist to whether or not Zook will keep his foot on the gas if this one gets out of hand in the 2H.

Illini coach Ron Zook coached with Bustle at Virginia Tech in 1987. Zook was the defensive coordinator and Bustle coached quarterbacks and receivers for Frank Beamer.

``When (AD Ron) Guenther first talked to me about playing this game, I asked him, `Are you sure we want to play these guys?' '' Zook said. ``Most of their players are from Louisiana. They are athletes and they can all run and love to play the game.''
 
Local Paper Info - Iowa Injury Update

Junior tight end Tony Moeaki said Tuesday that he expects to play against the Cyclones after missing the first two games with a foot injury.
"In terms of how much, I'm not sure yet," Moeaki said. "I don't know if I'm ready for a full game yet. We'll see this week in practice."
Moeaki injured his foot during the early stages of preseason practice. He was asked Tuesday if the Iowa State game was his target week to return.
"My target week was Maine, but it didn't work out," Moeaki said in reference to Iowa's Aug. 30 season opener. "So this is a big game to back for."

It has been nearly a year since Moeaki has played in a game for the Hawkeyes. He missed the final eight games last season after suffering a dislocated elbow and a broken wrist in the fourth game at Wisconsin on Sept. 22, 2007.
Moeaki, when healthy, has been a key performer for the Hawkeyes. He was leading Iowa in receiving with 14 catches for 170 yards and three touchdowns when he was injured last season.

Meanwhile, Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said there is chance junior receiver Trey Stross also could play Saturday. Stross missed the first two games with a hamstring injury.
"He's got a chance," Ferentz said. "He gained ground last week during the week, and if we can get him through the next three days, you'll see him Saturday.
"If you don't see him Saturday, that means we didn't get him through the next three days."

Ferentz also said junior offensive lineman Dan Doering has been fitted with a new cast on his arm and could play Saturday.
Senior tight end Michael Sabers also has a chance to play Saturday, according to Ferentz. Sabers, who graduated from City High, missed the first two games with a sprained ankle.

The news was not as optimistic concerning sophomore linebacker Jeff Tarpinian. He is not expected to play Saturday because of a hamstring injury that also kept him out of the first two games.
 
This article sums up the main reason I haven't locked in the ISU play yet. If they let Iowa get a running game established early, this one will have blowout written all over it...


The Iowa State football team may have a perfect record, but the Cyclones are far from perfect.

Coach Gene Chizik thinks ISU isn't a "very good football team" because the Cyclones have several problem areas, specifically the run defense, and if his team is to have any success at Iowa Saturday (11 a.m., Big Ten Network), it will have to start stopping the run.

"If we play like we did in the first two games Saturday, we won't win the game," Chizik said.

But if the Cyclones contain the Hawkeyes' potent running game, they might have a chance.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=4 align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD><SCRIPT language=JavaScript1.1 src="http://bannerads.zwire.com/bannerads/bannerad.asp?ADLOCATION=4000&PAG=461&BRD=2700&LOCALPCT=100&AREA=991&VERT=17101&NAREA=&AT=JS&barnd=2971"></SCRIPT><SCRIPT language=JavaScript><!-- if (parseFloat(navigator.appVersion) == 0) { document.write('<IFRAME width="" MARGINWIDTH=0 MARGINHEIGHT=0 HSPACE=0 VSPACE=0 FRAMEBORDER=0 SCROLLING=no BORDER="0" BORDERCOLOR="#000000" SRC="http://bannerads.zwire.com/bannerads/bannerad.asp?ADLOCATION=4000&PAG=461&BRD=2700&LOCALPCT=100&AREA=991&VERT=17101&NAREA=&AT=IF&barnd=4863"></iframe>'); } //--> </SCRIPT><NOSCRIPT></NOSCRIPT></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>The Cyclones (2-0) are 11th in the Big 12 in rushing, giving up 211.5 yards per game. They also allow a conference-worst 6.2 yards a carry. Last week, Kent State ran all over ISU, piling up 243 yards on the ground.

Chizik partially credits the elusiveness of Kent State quarterback Julian Edelman and running back Eugene Jarvisfor why ISU surrendered so many rushing yards.

But Chizik also knows ISU's front seven played a large part in that too.

"It's a mixture of defensive line, linebackers, safeties," Chizik said. "It's a mixture of bad tackling (and) a mixture of poor run fits in there (too.)"

When looking at rush defense Chizik first looks at the play of the defensive tackles and the linebackers.

The Cyclones are inexperienced on the interior of the line with both starters, Michael Tate and Nate Frere, seeing limited playing time before assuming starting roles this season. Plus, the rest of the rotation consists of four freshman and sophomores.

ISU also is breaking in two new outside linebackers in Michael Bibbs and Fred Garrin. But the Cyclones aren't using their inexperience as an excuse.

For Frere, it all comes down to the units meshing together. If they work better together, ISU will have a better shot at containing Iowa running back Shonn Greene, who averages 119.5 rushing yards per game.

"It's a team thing," he said. "If I don't maintain my gap, they could rip it for a touchdown. If a linebacker doesn't fill his gap, they can rip it for a touchdown."

In Chizik's defense, everything comes back to being in the right spot at the right time. If the Cyclones execute their schemes, they believe they'll find success on Saturdays.

"As a defense, we just have to do the little things right and we should be fine," safety James Smith said.

And if they don't, it could be next to impossible for the Cyclones to win their second consecutive game over the Hawkeyes.

"Our guys know for us to beat Iowa in Iowa, they will have to play a near perfect game," Chizik said. "It's that simple."
 
Local Paper Report - ISU Injury Update

At his Monday press conference, Chizik said both running back Alexander Robinson and cornerback Devin McDowell will be fine for the Iowa game. Chizik also said Robinson will start. Both players sat out last week's game.

Sunday, Robinson said he had a bruise in his thigh and was held out for precautionary reasons. McDowell declined an interview request Sunday.

Also, safety Chris Brown, who tore his right ACL and MCL at the end of spring practice, made his season debut against Kent State, recording one tackle and forcing one fumble in limited action.

"There were a couple of things that happened out there that gave him confidence, making a tackle and planting on his knee," Chizik said.
 
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