Carolinablue Week 3 Confirmed Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 2 Record 9-2 +6.7 UNITS
Year to Date Record 14-8-1 +5.14 UNITS
All Plays to Win 1 Unit


HOUSTON -14 120 (Greek)
TEXAS TECH -26.5 120 (Greek)

Jumped on these two as I was surprised that Houston opened at 14.5 at the Greek when it was already 15 everywhere else. Bought the 1/2 because there are certain numbers I just don't like, and I don't mind taking the hook every now and then when I think it is the right thing to do. I see this Houston line between 18 and 20 really soon. Same with Texas Tech as that line is 28 everywhere else but opened at 27 at the Greek. Just wanted under that number so took it while I could as I see this line around 30 or more in a few days.
 
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Wanted Illinois at 10 but it opened at 11 at the Greek so that is one where they opened it higher than it did at other places, oh well. If it drops to 10.5, I will buy it to 10, but otherwise it will be a pass. The fav lines are really tight and I see very little l like this week to be honest. Considering NMSU -6 but not sold on it yet. Will jump on the overs in Tx Tech, Louisville, and NMSU if they are all reasonable.
 
Illinois now up to 13, man I really missed out on that one. Shoulda took it at 11 when I had the chance, but this was a case of me definitely guessing wrong (or being greedy, take your pick haha). Oh well, it happens.
 
I got Tech at -27 heres some food for thought:
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Texas Tech has a history of pounding bad teams and Mike Leech is no stranger to running up a score. The guys hates Fg’s and punting. So far this season the offense has been very impressive passing for 957 yards in two games against defense which are better than the Owl’s defensive unit.
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Rice has already been beaten by a IAA team in Nichols State. They had a poor defense last season against the pass and as a whole on itself. They are replacing 3 starters in the secondary this season and it has showed as they gave up 423 yards passing to Baylor who does not early have the atheletes that Tech does.
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The Owls only gained 218 yards on Nichols State in the opener and while they did put up 17 points on Baylor. The Bears had the #110 ranked defense last year and gave up an average of 40 points per game against big 12 foes. So it should not be that surprising that the Owls could score on Baylor.
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It is somewhat concerning the amount of rushing yards that the Red Raiders had given up last week but so far this season the Owls have only rushed for 227 yards on 77 carries for a 2.9 average per attempt. Tech had nice defensive statistics against the run against SMU so they should have some success against Rice.
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Looks like a lot of money is coming in on Washington, but I might have to take the bait and jump on Ohio State if that line drops to -3 (currently 3.5 +105 at Pinny right now which means they might drop it to 3, and hopefully the Greek will soon follow as it is 3.5 -105 there right now)
 
PSU is close to being a play for me...just waiting to see how the line moves

OSU is close to being a play. Might jump if I can get 2.5 120 at the Greek as I would take my chances with OSU laying less than a FG.

As tempting as Iowa is, I am not sure I want to risk it since it is still a rivalry game, and we all know those games produce some weird results some times.

In terms of dogs, I think SMiss and SMU are solid choices as both should win SU, but I am not much of a dog player, so will lay off both most likely as I just have a better feel for favs. BC is another one that could win SU as that one is basically a pk for me. Getting 7 is nice value. May be worth a look for me even.

Hawaii will probably crush UNLV but I will shy away from that one b/c of last night (even though I shouldn't let that affect me) even though there is huge value in only laying 17 IMO.
 
BC - I think this one is a toss up. Was hoping for Navy -3 or so. My projected line was Navy -6.5, so no value in 6 for me. Ball State is a solid team that could win SU, so I am laying off this one.
 
Here is where I am leaning right now...

Hawaii -17 at UNLV....last night aside, may be hard to pass up that value
Illinois -13 at Syr....Under 2 TDs may still be value in this one
BC +7 at GT...already 7.5 at Pinny, hoping it gets there at the Greek
A&M -24.5 vs ULM...see a 52-24 type of game here, but not sure yet
OSU -3 at UW...strictly a value play if I play it...had OSU higher than this
 
Stacks - Looking over a few things on that one right now, but if it hits 7.5 at The Greek, I would probably lean that way from a pure value standpoint. I figured this one as a pk with Tech getting a FG nod due to HFA.
 
Man, BC is 7.5 everywhere but the Greek. and Illinois has fallen back to 12.5 everywhere but the Greek. Cuse is actually juiced up at Pinny so hoping that causes the line to drop to 12 everywhere. I am hoping 5dimes opens in the next few mins and I can nail some of those as they have been a 1/2 pt lower on a couple lines the first few weeks (like Mizzou -5.5 where everyone else had 6)
 
Still only have the 2 plays at the top locked in, nothing more so far.

Here are the ones I am still leaning toward, but won't make a move until the next few line moves, so I can see if I can steal some value on each.

Hawaii -17
Illinois -12.5
BC +7
 
i think BC+7 is the right play on that game. I had GT-3 as the absolute maximum line.. Too many points here imo
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
i think BC+7 is the right play on that game. I had GT-3 as the absolute maximum line.. Too many points here imo
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I agree with ya on that one. Just hate taking 7 110 when everywhere else has 7.5 110. 5dimes has 7.5 120 for some reason, so just gonna wait and see if I can get 110 at the Greek.

Not gonna touch any of the 1-AA vs 1-AA matchups this weekend, as I just can't seem to get a feel for those, but I am waiting on a couple of 1-A vs 1-AA lines as I didn't play any last week, but I did cap the Purdue blowout as a test run, so I think I am ready to take a shot at the big spreads that come with these matchups, rather than trying to figure out matchups with teams I never see play anyway.
 
Leaning towards NW as well, but would like to get a status update on Sutton, even though they shouldn't need him in this one. UVA let Duke hang around because of miscues and poor offensive production, and I think that NW has the offense to take care of business in this one. Not as confident without Sutton but they did step it up in the 2H with him out, so not sure yet. Line is 15.5 at 5dimes and 17 everywhere else.
 
ILLINOIS -12.5 110 (Greek)
MSU -7 120 (Greek) - As soon as this one dropped back to 7.5, I jumped on it, because I am sure it will be back at 8 or 8.5 tonight.
 
UPDATED CARD
HOUSTON -14 120
TEXAS TECH -26.5 120
ILLINOIS -12.5 110
MSU -7 120


Waiting on the Georgia/WCU line at 5dimes as well as a couple other 1-A vs AA matchups there.
 
everythingthatsgreen said:
so you mean me waiting for MSU -7 at thegreek is a lost cause?
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I would not be surprised if this one is back up to 8 within the next 30mins. And maybe even 8.5 later tonight. I don't see it hitting 7, but it may linger around that 7.5 to 8.5 range all week, not sure to be honest. I just didn't wanna miss out on the 7 120, so jumped while I had the chance.
 
shit, Thanks though for that info..


What have you seen from Pitt? I have not seen them play yet this yr
 
CB, i tried emailing 5 dimes and asking them when the IAA lines come out and they basically gave me the run around. Would you happen to know when they are release?
 
Congrats on a great week last week CB. Should have listened to you on Fresno. Good to see we are both on Houston and MSU.
 
yeah i talked myself off fresno last week too. i am an idiot.

the good news for your card this week cb is that i do NOT see any of those four teams having much of a possibility of losing outright, though i am havinga brain fart on pitt right now.... oh yeah .. i am leaving this addicting site now to read up on them .. forgot
 
kyle, the starting QB for pitt is a bit of a problem... i went to high school with the starting qb (seneca valley), he has only play 6 games in his entire varsity career. He has been hurt a lot.

I really like the mich st play.. the nice thing is since Notre dame is sooo bad this year, there most certainly will not be a look ahead this year.
 
Dmoney416 said:
Congrats on a great week last week CB. Should have listened to you on Fresno. Good to see we are both on Houston and MSU.
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No sweat Dmoney and VK. Fresno was one of those games I just had a good feel for but almost everyone I talked to decided to sit on the sidelines for it instead of taking a shot with all those points. Similar to UConn vs Duke in week 1, but hey, what can you do as you can lead a horse to water but...

Let me know what else you guys are thinkin for week 3 by the way. I have enjoyed reading both of your threads so far this year as you both are definitely value adds to the forum.
 
frankiegotti said:
kyle, the starting QB for pitt is a bit of a problem... i went to high school with the starting qb (seneca valley), he has only play 6 games in his entire varsity career. He has been hurt a lot.

I really like the mich st play.. the nice thing is since Notre dame is sooo bad this year, there most certainly will not be a look ahead this year.
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MSU line is 10 and 9.5 almost everywhere now, so glad I jumped on it when I did. I don't like it as much at 10 as I do at 1 score, but I still think it is one of the stronger plays on the board.
 
Hey, CB: News on Pitt

I'm posting this in my thread too, but I thought I'd post Pitt's injury info here too.

I just jumped on it at -10 and the deciding factor was the recent loss of Pitt's top DL Mustakas for the year.

Here's the article on Pitt injuries:

M*A*S*H*ed Up

Filed under: Football, Injury, Players — Chas @ 12:10 am

Here’s the way things are looking right now:
  • Derek Kinder — WR — ACL, out for year
  • Chris Jacobson — OL — Dislocated kneecap, out for year
  • Dan Matha — OL — Shoulder injury, out for year
  • Bill Stull — QB — Torn thumb ligaments, out for about 6 weeks
  • Elijah Fields — S — Team rules violation, suspended for the year
  • Gus Mustakas –DT — ACL, out for year
  • Kevin Collier — RB — Broken wrist, out for year
Then there are the walking wounded. Players who are playing with nagging injuries (already).
  • John Pelusi — TE
  • Aaron Berry — CB
  • Joe Thomas — OL
  • LaRod Stephens-Howling — RB
I’m not blaming it on the strength and conditioning program — at all. This stuff happens. Just feel it needs to be noted from the Pitt website for irony purposes:
A significant portion of the S&C training load is dedicated to drills that serve to reduce the possibility of sustaining an injury. In this regard, a great deal of special exercises are performed during the advanced stage of the warm up, which precedes the primary phase of the workouts, that target the muscles that articulate the neck, shoulders, hips, and knees.
​
Anyways…
3 starters and <STRIKE>2</STRIKE>3 others who were expected to be on the 2-deep all season. Only Matha would have been a question mark for the 2-deep, though with the play of the O-line so far, not as much of a stretch.
Some may point to this as yet another reason to say that this is why the coaches should just be looking at this season as getting ready for 2008. No. This is the reason you don’t count on a particular season as when things happen. Injuries happen, then everything changes. The team and program can’t assume.
 
Good stuff RJ, appreciate you taking the time to pull it all together. I had gathered bits and pieces before locking in my 7 but this makes me feel even better about my play now, thanks.
 
carolinablue said:
No sweat Dmoney and VK. Fresno was one of those games I just had a good feel for but almost everyone I talked to decided to sit on the sidelines for it instead of taking a shot with all those points. Similar to UConn vs Duke in week 1, but hey, what can you do as you can lead a horse to water but...

Let me know what else you guys are thinkin for week 3 by the way. I have enjoyed reading both of your threads so far this year as you both are definitely value adds to the forum.
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Thanks for the compliment CB. MSU and Houston are my two biggest plays of the week, and I like Western Mich quite a bit as well.

Thanks again for Fresno write-up. It was spot on, and don't think of my no play there as me dismissing your write-up. It was just no matter how much I researched that game, I could get no feel for the Fresno D and their first two games didn't provide too much info.

GL this week once again - your work is much appreciated. :cheers:
 
Thanks Ramble, appreciate the words.

Didn't see one total in the entire bunch that interested me, as all of them seemed too high for my tastes.

Just gonna wait and see what the D-1A vs AA lines look like at 5 dimes, as I am potentially interested in Rutgers and UGA, but not gonna force any plays, as I will be fine with the 4-play I currently have if that is all I like.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Your four plays are my four plays, however you fare will be how I fare.

:cheers: to a profitable weekend.
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ADDED HAWAII TEAM TOTAL OVER 39 115 (Greek)

Hawaii has something to prove in this game, and the fact that they have spent the last week here in the states should remove the travel issue as a factor in this one. Like this play rather than the spread at 17 as anything can happen with Hawaii on the road (esp. in Vegas), but one thing is for sure and that is that Colt will get his 400+ and Hawaii will keep bombing away all night long, so this team total over will have a shot as long as their is time on the clock. The reason I didn't do the game over is b/c I don't want to have to depend on UNLV to put up any points, as I would rather play the odds here and roll the dice on Hawaii putting up at least 40 on the Runnin Rebels. Best of luck this week guys!
 
final Card

houston -14 120
texas Tech -26.5 120
illinois -12.5 110
msu -7 120
hawaii Team Total Over 39 115
portland State -2.5 115 (5 Dimes) *added On Satuday 11am
 
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FG - No problem. I usually spend Wed nights going through all the team totals looking for ones that jump out at me and this is the first week where I actually found one I liked. I usually only focus on the high powered offenses, but usually their totals are in the 40's or 50's so I was surprised to see Hawaii so low. The only way this goes under is if Hawaii has a number of turnovers and UNLV turns this into a slow motion, possession "4 corners" offense type of game haha. Best of luck this weekend.
 
That is a solid play on the Hawaii TT. I have similar thoughts (conerns) about the spread and total on that game as yourself. Never even thought to go this route. GL on the card CB.
 
GL _ cb
Good work on Mich st.
I agree with you on the FCS vs FBS slate this week, but am inclined to believe wolfpack will be sky high to win one for O'Brien. Last I looked they were giving 12 to Wofford.
 
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