Carolinablue Week 2 College Football Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Year to Date 13-4 +8.048 units.

Not a bad way to wrap up week 1 as I went 6-0 on Saturday, after a 3-4 start to the weekend on the Thur/Fri games. Can't complain about a 9-4 Week 1 after going 4-0 in Week 0, so let's see if we can keep the momentum going.

Long way to go obviously, but always nice to get out to a solid start as it demonstrates to me that my hard work in the off-season paid off in terms of generating a nice ROI on the time spent over the summer. With that said, this is a long journey, so enough about Week 1, let's move on to Week 2...

I actually caught the lines at BOL as they started coming out Sunday afternoon, and I have to say that I haven't seen such weird line movement in both directions in all my years doing this. There were some plays where I guessed completely wrong as I saw line swings of 6+ points in a matter of minutes, along with some games where the fav became the dog and vice versa.

I swung and missed in terms of guessing line movement on both EMU and ODU, but rather than lament my bad guess on movement, I decided to double down as I have learned not to let line movement scare me off of plays, if I truly believe that my analysis is correct. As a result, you will see 2 separate plays listed on each of those teams, reflecting the crazy movement on both. I have also noted line movement on my other plays as well, so you can see what I mean when I talk about the crazy shifts across a number of lines today.

Saturday 9/9 Confirmed Plays

Eastern Michigan -3.5 110 (initial play I locked in out of the gate)
Eastern Michigan +3.5 110 (subsequent play I locked in...line now at +4)
ODU -5 110 (initial play I locked in out of the gate)
ODU -2.5 +105 (subsequent play I locked in...line now at -2 110)
Kansas State -33 110 (line now at -36 110)
Navy -13 110 (line went as high as -14.5, but now back to -13)
ULM +35.5 110 (line opened at +36.5, now at +31 110) - no play...game cancelled
UCF -1.5 120 (line now at -3 115...updated line now at PK as of 9/4) - no play...location change
USF at UConn Under 67 115 - no play...game cancelled as per BOL
Hawaii at UCLA Over 65 110
Northwestern at Duke Over 53 110
Kansas State vs Charlotte Over 54 110
Idaho -6 110
FIU -13 112
 
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I have to admit that I was surprised to see the Ville open at -9 110 and then drop as low as -6 110 before now settling in at -8 110. I went into this year fully expecting it to be a work in progress for my Heels given that we lost about 97% of our offensive production from last year, so while the Cal game was disappointing to say the least, I don't consider it a climb onto the ledge moment, as anyone with any type of perspective on this team probably had us pegged as a marginal bowl team heading into the season. It's going to take some time for all the new offensive parts to gel as a cohesive unit and with a noticeable lack of seasoned playmakers at the present time, we are definitely a work in progress. I did like what I saw out of Chazz and Carter, but again, I am not expecting miracles out of one of if not the youngest offensive squads in the country.

As far as the game vs the Ville goes, I could see us getting slammed by 28 or I could see us winning straight up, so I would stay far away from this game even though I expect almost everyone and their brother will probably be all over Louisville. Every year we have a couple games we win that we aren't expected to, and of course, we also have a couple we lose that we aren't expected to. Proceed with caution...
 
I did try to hit Michigan when it opened at 27.5 but by the time I went to confirm it had already shot up to 31.5, so I passed as I really wanted under 4 TDs. Line is now up to 33 so to me all the value got sucked out of it too quickly, although I could see Michigan easily covering anything under 35. For me however, the 27.5 was the value number and my reflexes were too slow...it happens.
 
Not sure what to make of USF because I have UConn on my list of teams to potentially fade this season so even though USF did not impress against Stony Brook, if that line gets down to 16.5 I may just play it from a value standpoint even though it has dropped from 21.5 down to 17.5 already. Just hoping it keeps dropping as this may be the best value offered on USF all season if I can get them under 17 points at UConn as I don't see UConn putting up more than 14 at the most.
 
Also missed MSU when it opened at -3.5 vs WMU. Another case of trying to confirm but then having the line jump to 6.5 so I passed...
 
Looking for a second set of plays, mr. cb, with maybe some fcs crossovers .
Have another great week.
 
bull said:
Looking for a second set of plays, mr. cb, with maybe some fcs crossovers .
Have another great week.
Click to expand...

Always look forward to the crossover games and wish those lines came out early as well, but it at least gives me time to run through the matchups in greater detail. Also reviewing a few more UTR under the radar plays so the card is definitely not finalized yet!
 
Added:
Football - 317 South Florida/Connecticut under 67 -115 for Game
Football - 153 Hawaii/UCLA over 65 -110 for Game
 
Added:
Football - 315 Northwestern/Duke over 53 -110 for Game

Neither team has a dependable kicker so going for it on 4th downs will be the rule rather than the exception in this one.
 
Added:
Football - 325 Charlotte/Kansas State over 54 -110 for Game

KSU should be able to put up 55 on their own plus they are usually good for a couple of blown coverage plays, so the 49ers won't be shutout in this one.

I expect something like 52-10 worst case in this one.
 
Some coattailing material for bull, mr cb. I don't/can't do totals myself.
G L
 
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – North Carolina’s quarterback competition will continue into game week prep for Saturday’s matchup with No. 16 Louisville, Larry Fedora confirmed on Monday.

LSU grad transfer Brandon Harris started UNC’s season-opening loss to California on Saturday, although it was redshirt freshman Chazz Surratt who piled up the stats and played the final three series of the game. Harris completed 7-of-16 passes for 60 yards and two interceptions in addition to five rushing yards on five carries. Surratt hit on 18-of-28 passes for 161 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 66 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

“I thought Chazz did a really nice job,” Fedora told reporters at his weekly press conference. “I thought both of them did a nice job with their poise. Their poise [and] their communication on the field with their teammates plus with their coaches on the sideline was good. Brandon threw the two picks, which we can’t afford to do and so he’s got to get better in that area, and I thought Chazz made some good decisions with the ball and when he was running.”

When asked if Harris would remain the starter, Fedora said a decision had not been made.

“We’ll go through this week again and decide on what we’re going to do,” the sixth-year UNC head coach said. “You would think based on what you saw Saturday, whether or not that was enough to make a change, I don’t know yet. But we’ll see how they handle this week in practice.”

The only other time Fedora has had a lingering quarterback competition during his tenure at UNC came in 2014, although he tabbed Marquise Williams as the starter over Mitch Trubisky in the days following a season-opening win over Liberty.

On Monday, he at least confirmed for the first time his quarterback competition was down to two, and stressed the loss on Saturday was another evaluation point to be added to roughly 25 preseason practices.

“You can’t do it all on one game,” Fedora said. “You just can’t. There’s too many things, there’s too many variables. We’ll see. We’ll continue to battle it out there and we’re going to put the guy on the field that we think can help us win the football game.”

A requirement for a Fedora-coached quarterback is limiting turnovers, a metric that broke in Surratt’s favor against the Bears. Harris was picked off at the Cal 18-yard line just before halftime to kill a scoring opportunity. His next pass attempt was also his last snap of the game as Cal safety Derron Brown intercepted a tipped ball at UNC’s 27.

“I’m looking for the guy that’s going to put us in a position to win,” Fedora said. “Taking care of the football is still No. 1 with us. You’ve got to take care of the football.”

Surratt played well in his first collegiate game, albeit in a conservative game plan by Fedora’s standards. UNC averaged 5.0 yards per passing attempt, which is the fourth-lowest of the Fedora era and the lowest since the hurricane game against Virginia Tech last October (1.8).

“[Surratt] wasn’t sitting back there worried about the rush and getting happy feet,” Fedora said. “I thought he did a nice job when he got pressure moving in the pocket and getting out of the pocket. The one throw that he had to [Brandon] Fritts down there when he avoided the blitz, if he hits that thing it’s a whole different deal. But overall I thought his poise was pretty good and I thought he handled it well.”

Harris expressed difficulty in finding a rhythm due to the quarterback rotation after Saturday’s loss, and Fedora acknowledged the challenges involved on Monday.

“I understand that,” Fedora said. “It is sometimes hard to do that. The way we practice, both of those guys are getting the same amount of reps and they’re both working with both groups all of the time. So would you prefer that it was one guy all of the time with the ones and nobody got injured so you could have continuity all of the time? Yeah, you would prefer that, but that’s just not what we have right now.”
 
M.O.T said:
No way he goes with Harris, right?
Click to expand...

I fully expect both guys to play again this week as there was a lot of effort put into getting Harris to the Hill, so I would be more surprised if he didn't see some action this week to be honest. Doesn't mean I agree, but just talking from a logical perspective, as I liked what Chazz did for the most part, but reality is while he definitely looked better than Harris, he didn't exactly silence critics as far as accuracy and arm strength go and he is a freshman and played like it at times (not a knock just a fact). Again, I would go with Chazz, but I obviously have no idea how these guys show during the week.
 
Any idea what's driving down that UCLA total? I grabbed the same number you did, and am now seeing 60.
 
EFC1878 said:
Any idea what's driving down that UCLA total? I grabbed the same number you did, and am now seeing 60.
Click to expand...

Short answer is I have no idea as I have been crazy busy with all the fall activities picking back up as I had to dust off my superdad outfit and make sure it still fits haha.

Honestly haven't looked as once I am confident enough to lock in a play I don't worry too much about line moves one way or the other unless it is something dramatic in my favor that offers so much value that I have to go back and hit it again (see ODU and EMU this week). I have the Hawaii game in the mid 70s so anything 68 or less was going to be a play for me, so while I am surprised it has dropped, as even with the Hawaii injuries, I wouldn't see them moving the line that much because of those given how the backups performed along with how Hawaii's system operates as more of a plug and play anyway. Really though, I don't think it matters in this one, but as always we shall see. Best of luck this weekend man.
 
EFC1878 said:
Any idea what's driving down that UCLA total? I grabbed the same number you did, and am now seeing 60.
Click to expand...

Of course, I just had to take a look at the line since you brought it up and now the line is up to 63.5, so almost back where it was, funny.
 
Another game cancelled...Still on the board at BOL but should be taken down shortly...

Florida State's non-conference game against Louisiana-Monroe has been cancelled due to Hurricane Irma.

Late Thursday night, Florida Governor Rick Scott mandated that all public schools, colleges, and universities be closed from Friday to Monday.

That forced FSU to cancel the football game as well as all other athletic events and classes scheduled during that span.
 
Larry Fedora:

- "Nothing new" on the quarterback front, said Fedora. "We are still in process of evaluating...they are both competing, they are both doing what they are supposed to, they are both learning the game plan." Expect UNC to play two quarterbacks on Saturday.
 
Not sure what to make of FIU as I don't see how they only put 17 on the board, but whatever. As Chris Jericho would say...You know what happens to teams that rack up tons of yards but have an inexplicable game plan for most of the game and can't put it in the endzone against an obviously overmatched and inferior team....FIU....You just made THE LIST!!!
 
ksimpsc said:
Good work this week Blue
Click to expand...

Thanks man! Want to maintain consistency week in and week out every year, so definitely on the right track to that out of the gate, but still a long way to go so discipline will be key as the lines start tightening up as the season goes on. Best of luck in Week 3!
 
carolinablue said:
I have to admit that I was surprised to see the Ville open at -9 110 and then drop as low as -6 110 before now settling in at -8 110. I went into this year fully expecting it to be a work in progress for my Heels given that we lost about 97% of our offensive production from last year, so while the Cal game was disappointing to say the least, I don't consider it a climb onto the ledge moment, as anyone with any type of perspective on this team probably had us pegged as a marginal bowl team heading into the season. It's going to take some time for all the new offensive parts to gel as a cohesive unit and with a noticeable lack of seasoned playmakers at the present time, we are definitely a work in progress. I did like what I saw out of Chazz and Carter, but again, I am not expecting miracles out of one of if not the youngest offensive squads in the country.

As far as the game vs the Ville goes, I could see us getting slammed by 28 or I could see us winning straight up, so I would stay far away from this game even though I expect almost everyone and their brother will probably be all over Louisville. Every year we have a couple games we win that we aren't expected to, and of course, we also have a couple we lose that we aren't expected to. Proceed with caution...
Click to expand...

I was on UNC +10. if only chazz stayed healthy...brandon harris sucks so bad. That fumble on the 1 didn't help either. Carter seemed non-existent somehow after such a fine showing vs lowly Cal
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I was on UNC +10. if only chazz stayed healthy...brandon harris sucks so bad. That fumble on the 1 didn't help either. Carter seemed non-existent somehow after such a fine showing vs lowly Cal
Click to expand...

There were a few questionable play calls in short yardage and red zone situations but reality is we were beaten by a much better team with much better athletes. Still surprised it got as low as Ville -6. The line on UNC v ODU will be interesting this week. I am leaning towards the over depending on whether or not the line is reasonable.
 
carolinablue said:
There were a few questionable play calls in short yardage and red zone situations but reality is we were beaten by a much better team with much better athletes. Still surprised it got as low as Ville -6. The line on UNC v ODU will be interesting this week. I am leaning towards the over depending on whether or not the line is reasonable.
Click to expand...
I was not impressed by ODU offense in their game with U Mass. Not a totals player here but I would be leery of an 'over' with ODU. G L
 
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