Carolinablue Week 13 Plays

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Just want to point out that I am basically playing for fun at this point as I noted in a previous week's thread. I made all my withdrawals already and just left some cash in there to play a couple games here and there at less than a half unit per play when I see something I like. Doesn't mean I just threw darts at a board to get these plays haha, but it does mean that they aren't full unit plays. I will make sure and note the units and rationale below so you can make your own determinations. Best of luck this weekend guys!


CMU -2.5 110 (0.44 to win 0.4)

Even though they are already guaranteed a spot in the MAC title game at Ford Field, CMU is not content to just sleepwalk through this game, as they will be looking to use it to get some momentum heading into the game on 12/1, just like they did last year vs Buffalo. Neither team is really strong on the defensive side of the ball, but CMU should be able to outscore Akron in this one, as the Chips have proven that they know how to get the job done vs inferior competition, covering 4 out of 5 as a fav this year and 17 of its last 21 vs the MAC. Give me the Chips to start off the weekend right.
 
Last edited:
UNC VS DUKE OVER 47 (0.44 TO WIN 0.4)

Neither team has been able to run the ball consistently this season, but that will all change on Saturday as both teams will probably see lanes open up that haven't been there all year. As a result I look for both passing games to be insane as they will finally be able to set up the pass with the run. I also expect UNC to break at least 2 big special teams plays and maybe get a defensive score as well. Should be a wild high scoring affair that easily sails over the total.
 
MD is questionable for ULL so the senior backup may be getting his first start, but even if MD plays, it shouldn't matter b/c ULM is playing really solid football right now as it looks to clinch its first 6 win season since moving to 1-A in 1994. ULM also has the top rushing defense in the sunbelt, which doesn't bode well for Fenroy if he has to be a one man show for ULL this Saturday. Add to that the fact that ULM has a dual threat in their backfield that could easily top 300+ vs the sieve like ULL rushing defense this weekend.

Here is a portion of an article from yesterday's news star...

Beginning with the 1994 season, 13 different ULM football teams have finished the season with a losing record.
The Warhawks (5-6, 3-3 in the Sun Belt) have a chance to halt that streak on Saturday by beating Louisiana-Lafayette (3-8, 3-3) in the season-finale for both teams. ULM can finish at .500 with six wins — a benchmark the team hasn't reached since moving up to Division I-A after the 1993 season. "We've probably got the most important game of the year," ULM coach Charlie Weatherbie said. "A chance to get six wins, playing an in-state rivalry in Lafayette."

"We've got a lot riding on this football game," Weatherbie said.
After opening 1-5, the Warhawks have won five of their last six games — including back-to-back non-conference victories over Grambling State and Alabama. "I think the last couple of weeks, we've really played well as a team," Weatherbie said. "It's important that we play well offensively, defensively and on special teams."

ULM could catch a break this week, depending on the health of dual-threat quarterback Michael Desormeaux. He leads ULL in rushing (1,141 yards) and passing (1,405 yards), but is questionable with clavicle and rib injuries. "We're preparing for him to be the quarterback, and for him to play," Weatherbie said. "We'll see what happens from there. It doesn't matter if he plays or not. We've got to come to play."
- The News Star
 
From the Daily Advertiser....

Even though UL enters the game ranked seventh nationally in rushing and at its accustomed place atop the Sun Belt Conference - now three years running, no pun intended - there are cracks in that foundation despite a two-game winning streak. First, the Cajuns will be facing one of the better rushing defenses they've seen this year, with the Warhawks (5-6, 3-3) only allowing 151 yards per game on the ground (132.2 in league games). That's less than half of UL's seventh-ranked 258.1 average, a number that balloons to 293.3 yards per outing against Sun Belt opposition.

"People talk about their offense, but I'm extremely impressed with the way Monroe's playing both offensively and defensively right now," said Cajun coach Rickey Bustle. "It's going to be a dogfight."
More importantly, the Cajuns will either be missing a key cog in that attack, or have one that's running on pins and needles - pins and needles likely being what Michael Desormeaux feels every time he takes a step or a breath. Desormeaux, already limited by a bruised sternum, suffered bruised ribs in last Saturday's 38-28 win at Florida International.
His status is listed as doubtful for Saturday. But that's how he was listed last week, and he started and played the first quarter at FIU, accounting for two scores before his second injury.
"We know Lafayette runs it very well, and Desormeaux's a heck of a quarterback running the football," said ULM coach Charlie Weatherbie. "We know we're going to have to play well defensively against them." The Warhawks are no slouches themselves on the ground, and that attack has been mostly responsible for ULM's four wins in its last five games. Calvin Dawson leads the Sun Belt in rushing with 1,348 yards and 12 scores, and backup Frank Goodin has come on late in the season and has 537 rush yards. Quarterback Kinsmon Lancaster isn't the running threat that Desormeaux is, but he's still averaging over 30 yards a game and has to be accounted for in the ground attack.
 
<TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD class=storytitle colSpan=3>Head-to-Head: UNC-Duke </TD></TR><TR><TD class=primaryimage vAlign=top>
498365.jpg


</TD><TD noWrap width=3></TD><TD vAlign=top><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=4 width="60%" bgColor=#f5f5f5 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD vAlign=center noWrap>By Greg Barnes
Inside Carolina
Posted Nov 21, 2007
</TD><TD noWrap>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

What are the key battles to watch in Saturday's game against Duke? Inside Carolina takes a closer look at the five head-to-head matchups that will determine the outcome ...
</TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=3>
1.) UNC’s Greg Little vs. Duke’s Run Defense
<TABLE align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498375.jpg

<CENTER>Little</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>When collegiate football coaches adopt the running-back-by-committee approach before the season even begins, that’s normally a sign that problems are on the horizon, and North Carolina has definitely not been the exception during the 2007 season. The Tar Heels rank 109th nationally in rushing offense with a meager 92.3 yards per contest, despite using four different running backs throughout the first 10 games.
Greg Little became the fifth option against Georgia Tech last Saturday. The freshman wide receiver moved to the backfield, and immediately showed flashes of his enormous potential; running hard and making defenders miss with his quick feet on his way to 89 yards on 24 carries. Those numbers marked the second-highest rushing total for a Tar Heel this season, coming against the nation’s ninth-ranked run defense.
The Yellow Jackets hit him early and often, but the Durham, N.C. native earned over half of his yards after contact.
"The run after contact was something that was very apparent," head coach Butch Davis said. "Our coaches said he had 56 yards that he made after the initial contact. <TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498376.jpg

<CENTER>Rey</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>"It's a shame – he had over 100 yards rushing until they credited him with a [20-yard loss] on that failed running play. He caught some balls as a wide receiver and caught some balls as a running back, and certainly gave us some plays as a running back."
North Carolina has had a player rush for 100 yards at least once every season since 1966, but no one has accomplished that feat so far this fall for the Tar Heels. Fortunately for Little, Duke’s run defense is giving up over 180 yards per game and besides, there’s nothing wrong with a little added pressure and motivation.
"I've been known to perform well when I'm backed down into a corner," Little responded. "That's what I like – a challenge. So maybe I'll rush for 200 [yards], who knows."
Duke linebackers Vincent Rey (107 tackles) and Michael Tauiliili (101 tkl) both rank in the ACC’s top-five in tackles.
2.) UNC’s Pass Defense vs. Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis
<TABLE align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498377.jpg

<CENTER>Mapp</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Quarterback Thaddeus Lewis’ play this season has been buried beneath the negative headlines and apathetic fan support of the Duke football program, but the sophomore has completed 54.4 percent of his passes (181-of-333) for 2,211 yards, 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
"The quarterback is a guy that not only does he have a good arm and the ability to make plays in the passing game, but he's got good athleticism," Davis said. "It's always a concern about a quarterback that can extend the plays and keeps plays alive because he's such a good athlete. You may think you're starting to get a little bit of pressure on him, and he's got the ability to move around in the pocket, scramble and get outside the pocket."
<TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498379.jpg

<CENTER>Lewis</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Lewis has teamed up with wide receiver Eron Riley for nine touchdowns, and despite being tagged an athletic, mobile quarterback, his accuracy is pretty legit. In the Blue Devils’ 20-14 victory over Northwestern, he completed 15 consecutive passes and finished 19-of-23 for 246 yards and three scores.
With Duke’s ground game only generating 56.6 yards of offense, the North Carolina pass defense will have to capitalize on a heavy pass rush to contain the Blue Devil receivers. Cornerback Kendric Burney (44 tkl, three pass breakups) will most likely cover Riley and linebackers Durell Mapp (120 tkl, seven tackles for loss) and Quan Sturdivant (46 tkl, one int) will have to maintain their assignment responsibilities to prevent Lewis from scrambling for extra yards when the pocket collapses.
3.) UNC’s Brandon Tate vs. Duke’s Special Teams
<TABLE align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498380.jpg

<CENTER>Tate</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>During last season’s thrilling 45-44 season-ending victory at Duke, Brandon Tate stepped into the record books for the first time, becoming only the ninth player in NCAA history to return a punt (54 yards) and a kickoff (97 yards) for a touchdown in the same game.
Since that time, Tate has become a regular record-breaking weapon, setting the ACC mark for career kickoff return yards last week with 2,360 total yards – as a junior. At his current pace, Tate will shatter the NCAA record (2,734 yards) next season if he stays healthy.
<TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498381.jpg

<CENTER>Jones</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>But there is one streak that Tate would like to continue this season – the Burlington, N.C. native returned a kickoff for touchdown in each of his two previous years at North Carolina, but has not chalked one up this season.
Duke place kicker Joe Surgan and his kickoff coverage unit are aiming to make sure that doesn’t happen on Saturday. The Blue Devils have been solid in special teams this fall, ranking 23rd-nationally in kickoff coverage by allowing only 19.6 yards per return.
The punt coverage unit hasn’t been as impressive, but they’ve been effective nonetheless, holding opponents to 9.3 yards per return (65th nationally). Much of that credit goes to Kevin Jones, who is averaging 38.8 yards per punt with 14 kicks downed inside the 20-yard line and only two touchbacks.
4.) UNC’s Defensive Line vs. Duke’s Offensive Line
<TABLE align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498382.jpg

<CENTER>Taylor</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Despite Duke’s perennial vacation spot in the ACC’s cellar, this rivalry game continues to generate intensity on both sidelines, and especially in the trenches. Just ask Carolina defensive tackle Kentwan Balmer, who was ejected in 2005 for retaliating to some rough play in the early goings of that 24-21 UNC victory.
“It was a cheap shot, and I didn’t know how to walk away from it,” Balmer said. “I was young, and I got overly emotional out there and I made a mistake and it cost the team.”
Senior defensive end Hilee Taylor (43 tkl, 14.5 tfl, 10 sacks) headlines the Tar Heel defensive line, while Balmer (55 tkl, 7.5 tfl), sophomore defensive end E.J. Wilson (38 tkl, eight tfl) and freshman defensive tackle Marvin Austin (22 tkl, 5.5 tfl) round out a solid UNC front four.
<TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498383.jpg
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>“It’s actually not just the defensive end, because they’ve got two fantastic defensive tackles as well and guys behind him that are probably just as good,” Blue Devil senior center Matt Rumsey said. “They’ve got a real great defensive front, so for us up front, it’s just going to be communicating and execution, making sure we’re where we need to be, blocking who we need to block and that we’re talking the whole time before the snap.”
Duke’s offensive line has struggled to keep opponents out their backfield, allowing 3.82 sacks (114th nationally) and 7.55 tackles for loss (103rd) per contest. If Lewis and the Blue Devil running backs hope to have any room to develop any sort of offensive balance, the O-line must rise to the occasion and work together to contain the Tar Heel pressure up front.
5.) UNC’s Senior Day vs. Duke’s Ted Roof
<TABLE align=left border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498385.jpg

<CENTER>Balmer</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>Emotions will be at a fever pitch at Kenan Stadium this weekend for a variety of reasons – rumors surrounding a Butch Davis contract extension, speculation that this may be Duke head coach Ted Roof’s last game as a Blue Devil, but more importantly, this game marks the final collegiate contest that North Carolina’s 10 scholarship seniors will ever play.
Starters Scott Lenahan, Taylor, Mapp and Balmer represent just a few of the names that will be honored before kickoff at 3:30 p.m. on Saturday.
"I'm going to miss everybody on this team, I'm going to miss the coaching staff [and] miss the fans," Balmer said. "It's hard to say goodbye to Carolina, because once you're in it, you're in it for good. This is my heart."
<TABLE align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>
498386.jpg

<CENTER>Roof</CENTER></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>On the other sideline, Duke University is faced with the unenviable task of deciding if the small, but obvious strides that its football program has taken over the last four seasons is enough to warrant retaining Roof for another season. The former All-ACC linebacker would rather focus on his kids’ efforts than his own personal job security, at least for one more week. “What makes it frustrating is those kids who put so much into it,” Roof said. “If they haven’t committed themselves to going all in, it wouldn’t be frustrating, but when you invest yourself physically, mentally and emotionally and don’t get what you want at the end of the day, it is frustrating. We can’t change what’s happened in previous weeks. All we can do is put everything we have into this
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Good article on Butch Davis' future at UNC...


Extension should keep Davis at UNC

<!---->By Andrew Jones
Star-News Correspondent

</SPAN>

Chapel Hill | Butch Davis might be from Arkansas, but the North Carolina football coach says Chapel Hill is his home.

On Wednesday afternoon, the first-year Tar Heels football coach signed a one-year contract extension with a $291,000 raise, pushing his average annual salary from $1.86 million to $2.15 million.

Davis says the deal assures he’ll remain at UNC and should quell the rumors regarding his immediate future.

“I sat out of football for about 18 months and surveyed the landscape, and a year ago when (wife Tammy and I) decided to come to Chapel Hill; we just fell in love with it,” Davis said at the Kenan Football Center after practice Wednesday.

“I’m thrilled that the administration, the board of trustees and the athletic department is happy with what’s transpired in the last 10 or 11 months. And hopefully this will put to end all the speculation. My family and I want to be in Chapel Hill, want to be at the University of North Carolina and are very excited about the future of the program.”

Athletic director Dick Baddour said in a statement released by the school that UNC recognizes Davis’ progress “in rebuilding and generating momentum in the Carolina football program.”

The Tar Heels are 3-8, but six of the losses have come by a total of 24 points. However, the results on the scoreboard don’t tell the whole story, former Hoggard and current UNC kicker Connor Barth says. A senior, Barth said the Heels are on the right track.

“He’s one of the best coaches in college football,” Barth said Wednesday evening. “The future here is great. We’ve made progress, not in our record but in the way we play. You can see the changes in our demeanor and preparation. It’s been awesome.”

Davis went 51-20 in six seasons at Miami before going 24-36 in four years as head coach of the Cleveland Browns. He led them to the playoffs once, but left with five games remaining in the 2004 campaign.

After two years as an analyst for the NFL Network, Davis was the most notable coach on the market a year ago when UNC corralled him. But rumors have persisted he was using the program as a stepping stone for another gig - including Arkansas, his alma mater.

Last month, the Star-News asked Davis if he would be back at UNC next season and he responded, “That’s my plan, yeah.”

His less-than-convincing reply added fuel to the rumor mill. Freshman tailback Greg Little, who originally committed to Notre Dame but changed his mind at the last minute because of Davis, isn’t worried.

“He’s just trying to build a program here,” Little said outside the locker room. “He’s making all these changes to the facilities and bringing in the best coaches money can buy. I feel comfortable with him here and I feel confident he’s not going anywhere.”

The speculation about Davis’ future has bothered the coach. But he’s grateful the administration recognized the win-loss record wasn’t indicative of the program’s growth in his inaugural year.

He also said the rumors, which also involve his recent bout with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, have been used against him.

“Unfortunately, there’s been people that have tried to use a lot of things,” said Davis, who’s recovered from the cancer. “They’ve tried to use (Arkansas) to fabricate the possibility that I might consider leaving. Some schools have actually even tried to, unfortunately, tried to use my health and say that ‘He’s not going to be the coach there because he might not survive long enough.’

“And if you want to talk about unethical and a sad statement about recruiting, I think that’s as low as you can get.”

But UNC fans should be pretty high right now.

Davis’ wife loves Chapel Hill. His son, Drew, is enjoying middle school football and basketball, and the coach is where he wants to be.

“Chapel Hill is my home.”
 
GL bro, like the C. MI play...I was leaning to NC -14, thoughts on the side?

Definitely no play on the side for me as our secondary is not one I want to bank on to hold a big lead if we get up early. There is gonna be a lot of emotion in this game just like there is every year vs Duke, and I expect us to win, but 14 is a lotta points for a young team to be expected to cover, especially in a rivalry game against a pass happy opponent who will probably air it out 50 times tomorrow. I know no one has mentioned the total at all, but I really think that is the stronger side in this one.
 
Just as a side note...I was the only one in the whole world who didn't play the USC game last night as I was just gonna tail all you guys and take USC -3 but missed the stupid kickoff b/c I was putting up the Christmas Tree last night for my wife. Needless to say I was pissed the whole game b/c I knew USC was gonna roll, but between the people over for Thanksgiving and all the other stuff, just never got the play in on time. Oh well haha.
 
Blue - thanks forthe response, it's appreciated! Ah, the ole Christmas tree...I'll be doing all that shit for the wife on Sunday:)
 
GL on CMU. They don't lose two in a row against inferior competition IMHO.. -2.5 should work just fine although I considered the ML:cheers:
 
GL on CMU. They don't lose two in a row against inferior competition IMHO.. -2.5 should work just fine although I considered the ML:cheers:

Yeah, I don't buy the nothing to play for argument because the first year coach wants to show everyone that he has what it takes and these players want that 7th win to guarantee a winning season, not to mention the fact that they want to bounceback after that tough loss to Eastern last week. Akron is really the team that has nothing to play for as the stadium won't be sold out at 11am the day after Thanksgiving, even though it is a tv game, so for them it is really about pride, but pride won't win out over talent today.
 
That ACC total is something I'll have to investigate myself...you rarely play totals and neither do I.

Right off the cuff, I am concerned about Duke doing their part to get to this number. I watched a good chunk of the ND game (I am pathetic!) and it actually looked like they had regressed from earlier in the year (232 yards vs ND?!).

Glad to see you playing some games; hope that Christmas tree looks good...
 
That ACC total is something I'll have to investigate myself...you rarely play totals and neither do I.

Right off the cuff, I am concerned about Duke doing their part to get to this number. I watched a good chunk of the ND game (I am pathetic!) and it actually looked like they had regressed from earlier in the year (232 yards vs ND?!).

Glad to see you playing some games; hope that Christmas tree looks good...


I hear what you are saying, but thankfully they will have our secondary to go up against and I just think we are prone to giving up the big play as we have done week in and week out. Over time that will change, but right now we are going for too many pump fakes and over persuing too much, which leads to getting burned for those 20+ yard plays on multiple occassions. Again, I think Yates is gonna have a monster day with 300+ passing, and I think Little will have a near record day as TB as he will definitely break 100 yards Saturday, but neither team has what it takes to stop the others' offense, so I see it being a shootout on senior day with the good guys winning in the end.
 
Carolina,

Are you concerned at all with it being a letdown spot for ULM after the huge win last week?

Always read your thread when deciding on plays. thanks
 
CMU = Winner +0.40

This has to rank up there as one of my greatest covers in the last few years as anytime a team can come back from 2 TDs to get a cover with less than 8 to play is insane. I will admit luck was on my side in this one, but anyone who watched the game would also have to admit that CMU's stupid penalties and dropped balls were the only thing keeping Akron in this one as CMU was by far the better team today, and thankfully they got the cover when all was said and done. What a way to start the weekend, not pretty, but I will take it, because the cash is still green whether the win was pretty or not.

44-32 57.9% +7.786
 
Carolina,

Are you concerned at all with it being a letdown spot for ULM after the huge win last week?

Always read your thread when deciding on plays. thanks

Great question and welcome to the thread. Actually if they weren't in a position to get their first 6 win season then yes I would be concerned, but they have so much at stake in this one from a program standpoint that I don't see a letdown coming in this game.

I actually think the Alabama game will give them the momentum they need to blow by ULL because heading into that game they probably didn't think they would have a chance at history, but this team wants to go down in the books not only as the one that beat the Crimson Tide, but also as the one to set the victory mark, so I look for ULM to take care of business big time vs an overmatched ULL squad this weekend.

The quote above in my thread by the ULM coach calling this the biggest game of the year is a huge one because it speaks to their mindset going into the game. It is similar to the CMU coach talking about the importance of getting momentum and that 7th win vs Akron today.

Take out the mindset and I wouldn't have played on CMU or ULM, but how a team views a game that others may call "meaningless" can make all the difference in the world as to how they will perform. Again, great question and welcome!
 
UNC total now up to 47.5.

Game line now up to 15.5 from 14. No way I would lay that many with this young team in case anyone is interested in my opinion on a side.

Leaning Fresno and Kansas but can't bring myself to pull the trigger on either just yet. Interested in hearing any thoughts on those two. Most likely will lay off KU but Fresno intrigues me at PK.
 
Also leaning towards FAU but would have preferred 9.5, so will probably pass on the 11.5 as I don't see a lot of value in that number.

Slight lean towards the over in the Hawaii game but again not sold on it, so would like to hear any thoughts you guys have on that one as well.
 
Only real info I can come up w/ for the total tonight is that Boise has shown they can defend the pass (<200 ypg) and Hawaii has shown in their last 2 that they can be contained offensively somewhat. I could see a game in the high 20's.

GL either way~~~
 
I was on CMU -2.5 as well. Wow is all I have to say!
I've had them go against me plenty of times and so it's nice when one goes my way
 
Only real info I can come up w/ for the total tonight is that Boise has shown they can defend the pass (<200 ypg) and Hawaii has shown in their last 2 that they can be contained offensively somewhat. I could see a game in the high 20's.

GL either way~~~


Thanks, appreciate the response. The total is a tough one so more than likely I will pass on it, as I just couldn't bring myself to play under in a game like this, but I am sure it is gonna be a fun one to watch either way. I love the fact that it is only Friday!
 
CMU = Winner +0.40

This has to rank up there as one of my greatest covers in the last few years as anytime a team can come back from 2 TDs to get a cover with less than 8 to play is insane. I will admit luck was on my side in this one, but anyone who watched the game would also have to admit that CMU's stupid penalties and dropped balls were the only thing keeping Akron in this one as CMU was by far the better team today, and thankfully they got the cover when all was said and done. What a way to start the weekend, not pretty, but I will take it, because the cash is still green whether the win was pretty or not.

44-32 57.9% +7.786


:cheers: Yeah it was a frustrating game. The MAC is a crazy division to bet on. Just glad we were on the right side of the cover.
 
Completely agree with ya, as CMU demonstrated throughout the game that they were clearly the better team, but man those stupid penalties to keep the Akron drives alive were drivin me crazy all game. Never seen a team get so many late hit calls to keep drives goin, like on 3rd downs, the fake FG that Akron didn't convert, etc. I am glad CMU got the cover in the end, but man they should have won this one by DD easy.
 
Thanks guys, appreciate all the posts. Sorry bout the late start this week, but as long as the posted plays are winners, that's all that counts right.

UNC total is now up to 48.5 and it continues to rise as lots of late money is coming in on that one.

Getting ready to look over the D-2 lines now to see if any of em are soft, as most were probably just done based on stat ratings as I can't imagine a lot of time being put into those with everything else going on this weekend at the books. If anyone has any thoughts let me know.
 
CURRY COLLEGE +24 115 - obscure play of the day 57.50 to win 50.00 at 5dimes

St Johns Fisher is ranked #5 in D-3 and everyone is expecting them to steamroll the Colonels, but this Curry team is not your average spice as they have a lot of kick and they will give SJF more than they bargained for in this one. Curry is 12-0 and even though they come from the smallest of the small conferences (c'mon MIT is a rival...who knew MIT even had a team???), their SOS isn't horrible (52.0 vs 56.0 for SJF) and they have the 12th ranked rush defense and #34 ranked pass defense, and are #14 in turnover margin, so they should be able to stay within 4 scores in this one, even on the road. SJF is the total package and it will be hard scoring against their defense, but SJF doesn't blow decent teams out, as their only blowout wins have come against teams with losing records. I will take my shot getting 24 with the feisty Colonels from Curry!
 
UNC VS DUKE OVER 47 (0.44 TO WIN 0.4)

Neither team has been able to run the ball consistently this season, but that will all change on Saturday as both teams will probably see lanes open up that haven't been there all year. As a result I look for both passing games to be insane as they will finally be able to set up the pass with the run. I also expect UNC to break at least 2 big special teams plays and maybe get a defensive score as well. Should be a wild high scoring affair that easily sails over the total.

That over play is a great play as i am on it big as well.
 
For all the true degenerates out there. Curry is down by 14 at the half. They scored first to take a 7-0 lead but Fisher has scored 21 straight to take a 21-7 lead into the half. Curry lost a fumble and is averaging less than 2 yards per rush but they are still in the game. Fisher gets the ball first to start the 2H, so Curry will need to step up on that first possession. They are passing the ball well, but will need to get a running game going to have a shot in the 2H. Should be an interesting one down the stretch as I think the initial jitters are gone from them at this point, as they realize they can hang with this team.
 
Curry lost 38-7 haha. Oh well, gotta admit it was fun watching the game online for the last 3 hours. Had to do something to kill time while waiting for the UNC game to kickoff at 330pm. Don't mind the loss at all as 57.50 was worth it to say I actually wasted 3 hrs of my life betting on a D-3 game haha.

Okay, back to the big boys...kickoff for the Heels in 20mins, so time to get the nachos started as that is my usual game food for UNC contests.

Best of luck in the late games guys!

CURRY = LOSS -0.115 units (for all you anal record watchdogs haha)
 
2H TOTAL PLAY UNC v DUKE OVER 24 +100

Duke hasn't really started testing our secondary yet, and I expect at least 1 big special teams play in the 2H, which gives this number value especially at even money. These teams should be able to combine for 4 TDs in the 2H, so will take my shot here.
 
Bad call on my part on those darn totals. Didn't take into account all the mistakes and bad decision making that happens with a young team, but hey it happens.

Lost a total of 0.88 units on the game, so not a huge deal, but still sucks. At least UNC keeps the victory bell for another year though!

GAME TOTAL = LOSS -0.44
2H TOTAL = LOSS -0.44
 
ULM = WIN +0.40

Carolina Total = Loss
Carolina 2H Total = Loss
CMU = Win
ULM = Win

Ended up 2-2 on the day, but I am gonna mark it as 2-3 b/c I deserve an extra L for the bad judgment exercised on the bad 2H total play and for the D-3 Curry play even though that one was only 50 bucks, it was still stupid and shows what boredom can do to the bankroll. Out of principal, I am marking myself with 3 full losses today.

45-35 +7.191
 
Back
Top