Carolinablue Week 12 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
After a horrible start to the week in more ways than one, was able to end the weekend actually on the positive side of things as the -5.5 units heading into Saturday turned into a small but welcome profit of +0.38 units when all was said and done as Saturday pulled in +5.88 units as I went 9-3 on the weekend. Also hit 2 of 4 ML Dogs as Rice and Ga Tech (knew that was coming as soon as we lost to Duke) both hit for +350 and +425 respectively.

Year to Date 68-56 +1.824 Units


Late to the party today so missed all of the openers and have no idea what they were but hoping I didn't miss anything too good..

Summary of Week 12 Plays - BOL
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 379 Old Dominion -8 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 372 Washington U -26½ -110 for GAME
Football - 412 Utah -12 -110 for Game
Football - 349 Louisiana Lafayette +21½ -110 for Game
Football - 303 Ohio +1 -110 for Game (need this one to help cash my +300 division future on the Bobcats)
Football - 315 Memphis -6½ -125 buying -½ for Game
Football - 353 New Mexico/Colorado State over 61½ -110 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 387 Hawaii -2½ -115 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 324 UTEP/Rice over 57 -115 for GAME
Football - 391 Tulsa -½ -130 buying -1 for Game
Football - 337 Texas San Antonio/Texas A&M over 57½ -110 for Game
Football - 355 Indiana +25 -115 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 345 Massachusetts team total over 13 -110 for GAME

Summary of Week 12 Plays - 5D
11/19/16 7:00pm College Football 389 South Florida -13 -120* vs SMU
11/19/16 12:00pm College Football 417 Navy -6½ -130* vs East Carolina (need this one to help cash my +550 division future on Navy)
11/19/16 2:00pm College Football 345 Massachusetts +31 -130* vs BYU
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 55½ -120* (risking 0.48 to win 0.40)
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 56½ -120* (risking 0.48 to win 0.40)
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 57½ -120* (risking 0.48 to win 0.40)
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 58½ -120* (risking 0.186 to win 0.155)
 
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Football - 303 Ohio +1 -110 for Game

This one would also clinch my future on the Bobcats so double the pleasure, double the fun on this one as I will keep rolling right along with the Ohio train all the way to the Motor City.
 
11/19/16 12:00pm College Football 417 Navy -6½ -130* vs East Carolina - 5D
11/19/16 7:00pm College Football 389 South Florida -13 -120* vs SMU - 5D
 
Keeping an eye on a couple dog lines...Ball State and UMass as Toledo is hosting WMU the day after Thanksgiving in a huge matchup, so backdoor may be open as they won't want to have any silly injuries in the 4th heading into that game. UMass is intriguing b/c BYU has yet to really blow anyone out this year and UMass can pass the ball and put up some points when they limit their turnovers so could be a case of BYU winning comfortably but moreso in the 20s.
 
Couple more leans I am checking out include UNLV if the line keeps rising which I expect it will, ODU if I can get 7 at a reasonable price and Washington as they might put up 60+ this weekend against ASU.
 
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 55½ -120*
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 56½ -120*
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 57½ -120*
11/19/16 3:30pm College Football 423 The Citadel/North Carolina Over 58½ -120*

Took 4 plays before I was able to get to what I wanted to play unit wise (Risking 1.63 to Win 1.35 units), but I see this one hitting mid 60s at the very least so all 3 plays were easily within key variance level so I don't expect the 4 separate lines to make a difference when the smoke clears as UNC should be able to put up 45 at least, while Citadel will put up some points with their discipline and rushing attack, so thinking 45-21 give or take.
 
11/19/16 2:00pm College Football 345 Massachusetts +31 -130* vs BYU

Nothing like hitting confirm and getting nailed with a change in price but decided to lock it in anyway as I see this line closing in the 28 or so range when all is said and done. BYU hasn't shown the explosiveness this year but I do expect them to body blow UMass all day long with their running game with some play action thrown in leading to long gains so they should get their 40 or so in this one, but UMass is a scrappy team that should be able to exploit the BYU pass defense or lack thereof, so they should be good for 20 or so. UMass will eventually get worn down in the 2H so not taking a flyer on the ML, but I do expect them to keep it close early and keep it within 3 scores worst case.
 
Waiting on team totals at BOL on ULL and UMass as I will most likely be on one or both if they come in around 13 or less as I am expecting they will.
 
Football - 353 New Mexico/Colorado State over 61½ -110 for Game

New Mexico might rush for 400 in this one but CSU might pass for 400 as well. Both teams are very poor in terms of red zone defense as well (NM #87 and CSU #124), so should limit the amount of empty drives that typically are total killers.
 
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 387 Hawaii -2½ -115 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 324 UTEP/Rice over 57 -115 for GAME
Football - 391 Tulsa -½ -130 buying -1 for Game
Football - 337 Texas San Antonio/Texas A&M over 57½ -110 for Game

Huge card after all for Saturday, looking to clear at least +5 units this weekend to get some solid momentum as we approach bowl season which will be upon us before we know it.
 
Carolina Guy said:
Pirates gonna get rolled like they always do to the Middy's. BOL this weekend.
Click to expand...

Man I am losing my touch as Navy is one of the few early ones I grabbed that actually had some movement since open as I see 8.5 110 most places now. Looks like I only guessed right on about half of my opening line movement this week so gonna do some digging this weekend to see if I can spot where my numbers might be off just so I can get things tightened up a bit. Best of luck to ya this weekend, gonna be an amazing day for football on Saturday before the cold front comes in on Sunday.
 
SMiss at -5.5 looks interesting as both teams are banged up and trying to get bowl eligible but I think I trust the SMiss backup over the UNT one....Thoughts?
 
Also trying to figure out what is up with the WSU line as I was on the fence at +4.5 but now that it is up to +6 it is right on the borderline of being a variance play, so is there something I am missing here as I see this one as a 3-4 pt game either way depending on who wins the turnover battle.
 
UNC v Citadel total has dropped 10 points this week....????

Weather is gonna be perfect for football as it should be in the low 70s with no wind by gametime and I don't see any new injuries on the Heels so trying to figure out the drop as I really hope that BOL puts that one on the board since it is my main book vs 5D.
 
Adding

Football - 355 Indiana +25 -115 for Game

Too many points on a potentially cold rainy windy day where all Michigan needs to do is survive and get to the elimination game next week vs OSU. Indiana can't beat Michigan to save their lives but they typically keep it within a couple scores.
 
CrimsonK said:
Like that one CB. With you on UNC Ov also. GL!
Click to expand...

Hope you got a better line than I did as I see the UNC Ov at 49.5 right now at 5D after being as low as 47.5 earlier this morning. I thought for sure this was destined for 60s+ when I locked it in early but totally guessed wrong but don't think it will matter much as this has a better chance of going over 75 than under 60 IMO.
 
Out of my 3 games that started at 12 noon, hard to believe that the Rice/Utep over 57 is the one in best shape at the half as Rice has looked nothing like the team that has floundered all season while Utep looks like they don't want to be there. Gonna need some points from Utep in the 2H to help push this one over, and hopefully we can get 3 combined TDs in the 3rd quarter so I don't have to watch this any longer than I have to.

ULL has 4 turnovers and yet is still only down by 14. They have matched up ok with UGA but the turnovers are killing them. They get the ball first in the 2H so if they can put some points on the board, I would feel better about my +21.5 play on the dog.

UTSA vs A&M needs 5 TDs in the 2H to go over so a tough hill to climb as A&M had to settle for 3 FGs instead of cashing in TDs once they got into the red zone. A&M started out doing pretty much anything they wanted, but in the 2Q it just seemed like they went away from what was working. Need a few big plays out of the 2H gate in this one and maybe one or two big plays on special teams to give this over 57.5 a shot.

Next batch comes up at 2pm with the 2 plays in the UMass game and Utah -12 vs Oregon.
 
Weird day all the way around as I won some I shouldn't have and lost some that were painful to bear, but ultimately I ended the day on the losing side of things as I ended up 8-9 -2.68 units. On the bright side, the Navy +550 future is gold as they clinched tonight with the victory vs ECU, so that will eventually add +2.2 units to the good once it is graded at the end of the season. Still need Ohio to take care of Akron next weekend in order to hit my Ohio future at +300 and if UVA can somehow beat the Hokies and we take care of State, then my UNC future at +375 will also cash, but I know that one is more of a longshot than the others.

Updated Year to Date Record now 74-65 -0.865 units - it's been a weird season to say the least but plenty of time still left to get some consistency going and finish up the year on the right side of the ledger.

Hope you guys were able to navigate the land mines better than I did today!
 
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