Carolinablue Week 11 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Here is my week 11 card for those who don't want to read through the thread.

RICE -9.5 105 (now 10.5 110)
BGSU -2.5 110 (now 3 110)
NT +21 110 (now 22.5 110 ugh)
OU -24.5 110 (now 27.5 110)
BOISE -32 110 (now 34.5 110)
ZONA -38 110 (now 41 110)
NT TT O20.5 115 (added Sat)

Week 10 Notes and Recap
Both Sunbelt specials not only covered but won SU, but I didn't have the grapefruits to take the +600 or +300, but can't complain too much I guess, as I continue to roll with that conference while I just continue tread water elsewhere since I took that big withdraw after week 6.

Week 10 ended up 3-3, but ended up as a losing week b/c I took a hit when it came to juice this weekend. From this point forward, gonna go back to what has paid for the vacations the last few years, and stop messing around with trendy plays that are just not my thing...

So, with that said, no more totals or dogs (excluding sunbelt special plays) for me from this point forward. Just large favs when it comes to the big boys, and small to medium favs on the under the radar games, so enter this thread at your own risk later tonight as these week 11 plays won't be for the faint of heart, but hey if it ain't broke, don't fix it!

46-36-1 Year to Date

Road Favs 21-14
Road Dogs 11-7
Home Favs 12-10
Home Dogs 1-0-1
Totals 1-5
 
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Greek is shading the favs about a point or so higher than BM, so not as many opportunities this week in terms of line value vs BM, like there has been in weeks past.
 
Couldn't post the last 90mins for some reason, so will try to catch up tomorrow evening with rest of my plays, but gotta head out right now.
 
Only other plays I couldn't post were OU -24.5, BGSU -2.5 and Boise -32. Don't like a whole lot on the card this week, so gonna probably be a light one with just these 6 plays.

RICE -9.5 105
BGSU -2.5 110
NT +21 110
OU -24.5 110
BOISE -32 110
ZONA -38 110
 
Will have some thoughts either later tonight or later this week, but feel free to ask any questions about any of the plays, thanks.

If you are new to the thread or the board, you may want to read my first post in the thread before you comment about the chalk, DD favs, etc. Old timers get an exception as I know you are just gonna wanna come in here and bust my balls about the DD favs anyway haha.
 
CB, can you explain why you like UNT--a team that has routinely lost on the road to other Sun Belt teams by more than 21--on the road against FAU?

Don't get me wrong. I made the line -14 for FAU so UNT getting an extra TD looks like value. Just seeing if there is something more than value behind the play.
 
CB, have you found any of those little articles on Ohio, and more specifically their injury situation? Half the team is listed as questionable. LOL

I would really like to take the Bobcats at home in this one, but won't pull the trigger w/o more definite info.
 
Football notes: With offense finally clicking, Falcons get ready for Bobcats



By: Andrew Harner

Issue date: 11/4/08 Section: Sports
  • Page 1 of 1

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In weeks past, Brandon fielded many questions about the past game, but yesterday, the discussion was focused more on individual players rather than overarching team issues.

Toledo Tom

Toledo coach Tom Amstutz announced yesterday morning that he will step down from his head coaching position at the end of the season.

Despite the big rivalry Toledo and BG share on the field, Amstutz and Brandon became good friends over the years leading Brandon to say Amstutz will be missed.

"He a great coach, a great guy," Brandon said. "Not only Toledo, I think the [Mid-American Conference] will miss coach Amtustz."

Injury Report

Brandon still didn't have a full injury report on Anthony Turner's injured shoulder.

After the game, Brandon said that Turner had injured his other shoulder, but had no other details. Yesterday, he said Turner was receiving a MRI yesterday afternoon.

Receiver Freddie Barnes has been upgraded from out to day-to-day, but his status for Ohio this weekend is still uncertain.

The same can be said for running back Willie Geter, who did practice sparingly Sunday night.

One and done

With the MAC East race so tight, Brandon and his players are looking at the next three games as must-wins since another loss will ultimately doom the season.

"We told the kids before camp that it's a four game playoff and single elimination," Brandon said. "If you lose, you go home. Even for the big boys playing for the national championship, you lose, you go home."

Akron and Buffalo are currently both ahead of BG in the standings and Temple is right behind them. Each of these teams have two wins, and assuming BG wins out, they will hold the tie-breakers over Akron and Buffalo.

"Obviously some dominoes have to fall for us to get to the championship, but we have as many in the East as anybody else," Brandon said.

Looking ahead

Ohio presents the Falcons with a challenge they faced in Miami and Northern Illinois - a tough defense.

"They're a solid defensive team," Brandon said. "They've been a little snake-bit."

The snake-bit Brandon is referring to is Ohio's inability to win close games. So far this season the Bobcats have lost three games of four-points or less.

At the same time, BG has only been 1-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less, but quarterback Tyler Sheehan thinks the team can win a close game.

"We have a lot of momentum right now and I think that will help us in the game," Sheehan said.
 
BGSU vs Ohio Notes

FACTS & STATS: Site: Peden Stadium (24,000) -- Athens, Ohio. Television: None. Home Record: BGSU 1-3, Ohio 1-2. Away Record: BGSU 3-2, Ohio 1-5. Neutral Record: BGSU 0-0, Ohio 0-0. Conference Record: BGSU 2-3, Ohio 1-4. Series Record: Bowling Green leads, 35-22-2.


GAME NOTES: Mid-American Conference play will take place this Saturday afternoon when the Ohio Bobcats host the Bowling Green Falcons at Peden Stadium. The last time Bowling Green was on the field the team grabbed a convincing, 45-30 victory over Kent State. The win snapped a two-game losing skid and pushed the team's league ledger to a meager 2-3. Although BGSU only has four wins on the year, three have come on the road, proving that the Falcons can win in foreign territory. As for the Bobcats, they have lost seven of their nine games this season, including two in a row. The last time Ohio was on the gridiron the team was overmatched by Buffalo, and eventually fell to the Bulls, 32-19. Conference play has been troublesome for the Bobcats this year, as the team has posted just one win (26-19 against Kent State) in five league matchups. Last season the Bobcats snapped a five-game losing skid to Bowling Green with a 38-27 win. However, despite the loss by the Falcons they still hold a strong 35-22-2 edge over the Bobcats in the all-time series.


The Falcons' offensive success this season is due to the team's passing attack, which is producing 222.2 ypg, and out of the 29 touchdowns scored by this unit, 17 have come via the pass. Overall Bowling Green is producing 342.4 total ypg, and that has led to 25.8 ppg. Tyler Sheehan has done a commendable job for the Falcons under center, as the quarterback has completed 65.7 percent of his throws. Sheehan has amassed 1,922 yards thus far, and has 14 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. Corey Partridge has been the main option for Sheehan, as the wide out is leading the team with 45 receptions, 413 yards and five touchdowns. Sheehan did it all for BGSU in the 15-point win over Kent State, as the signal caller not only threw for 159 yards and two touchdowns, but also rumbled for 109 yards and one score as well.


The defense has been suspect throughout the season, and the unit heads into this matchup allowing 369.2 total ypg, which has led to 25.0 ppg. The main problem for this unit has come against the run, as the opposition is pounding BGSU for 189.8 rushing ypg, and out of the 28 touchdowns allowed by this unit, 18 have come on the ground. Fortunately the team has been able to make big plays, forcing 15 turnovers on the year. However, the defense has struggled to pressure the quarterback, racking up just 13 sacks. The Falcons' issues against the run continued this past weekend against Kent State, as the defense surrendered 259 rushing yards and two scores. However, despite the poor showing against the run, the Falcons still walked away with a much needed win. Erique Dozier led the way with nine tackles in the win, while P.J. Mahone added eight stops.


Much like their counterpart, the Bobcats have used a heavy dose of their passing attack this season, as the team is producing 243.9 ypg through the air. Overall this unit is averaging a mediocre 364.4 ypg, and that has led to just 21.8 ppg. Since taking over under center, Boo Jackson has been a bit inconsistent, throwing for 1,847 yards and 11 touchdowns, with nine interceptions. The team does not possess an overpowering ground attack, as Donte Harden is pacing the squad with just 454 yards and two scores. In the recent matchup against Buffalo the Bobcats racked up 417 total yards, but still fell by a 13-point margin. Jackson did most of the damage for Ohio, as the signal caller threw for 290 yards and two touchdowns, while also pacing the ground game with 70 yards and one score.


The play defensively for Ohio has been inconsistent at times, and the team heads into this game allowing 346.8 total ypg, and that has led to 25.7 ppg. What has really plagued this unit has been its inability to stop the run, as teams are abusing Ohio for 174.1 rushing ypg. The defense has been able to force 17 turnovers on the year, but the squad has struggled to get to the quarterback, racking up just 14 sacks.

Unfortunately the Bobcats' troubles against the run were evident in the loss to Buffalo, as the Bulls gashed Ohio for 277 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Steven Jackson led the way with 13 tackles and also forced a fumble, while Noah Keller added 10 stops in the win.
 
BGSU has won 5 of the last 6 in the series and 3 straight in Athens

Ohio is averaging 2.8 turnovers per game this year and is 93rd in turnover margin

Ohio is 94th in rushing offense, so they aren't as likely to exploit BGSU's weakness against the run

Ohio is in the bottom 10 in terms of red zone offense, turnovers lost and fumbles lost
 
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</OBJECT>This article reinforces the fact I made prior to the NT vs WKU game, that the key to the North Texas offense becoming consistent, isn't the passing attack, but rather the running game. I expect this to come into play big time as they go on the road again this week to face the underachieving Owls of FAU.



[SIZE=-1]02:18 AM CST on Wednesday, November 5, 2008[/SIZE]


[SIZE=-1]By Jeff Andrews / Staff Writer[/SIZE]
Cam Montgomery is turning into the player Todd Dodge hoped he would become when he recruited him in 2007.​

The junior running back has flourished over the past four games, rushing for 430 yards and two touchdowns in that span, not to mention catching 11 balls for 95 yards.​

In UNT’s win over Western Kentucky on Saturday, he had the best game of his college career, rushing for 130 yards and a touchdown in the first quarter.
Montgomery’s emergence is a welcome sight for a team that has struggled for production at times this year, and for Dodge, who is happy to see one of his big-time recruits pan out.​

“I told him the other day, he’s just now scratching the surface,” Dodge said. “He’s got real determination. He’s stepped up. He had a great spring. It was something we had to have. He had a great summer. He’s been the guy that we recruited.”
Montgomery is among the most heralded recruits to come to North Texas since Dodge’s first class in 2007. He was a four-star JUCO recruit out of Northeast Mississippi on Scout.com and a three-star recruit on Rivals.com.​

Montgomery received a medical redshirt in 2007 and had a rough start to the year. His best game before his current four-game tear was a 76-yard performance in UNT’s loss to Rice. He had only two carries for minus-6 yards the next week against Florida International.​

Since then, Montgomery has been as productive as any player for the Mean Green.
Part of the spike in production can be attributed to an increase in opportunities. In the first five games of the year, the junior saw no more than 11 carries. Since then, he hasn’t seen any less than 16 and has had 20 or more in the other three games.​

“There was a designed effort in our game plan to run the ball more,” Dodge said. “We put a tight end [Bryant Seidle] in the ball game. It helped our outside zone run play. Seidle did a great job. I told Cam he would carry the ball between 25 and 30 times. He carried it 21 times. We’re real pleased with his production.”​

Despite in the increase in carries, don’t expect Dodge to run Montgomery the way Darrell Dickey ran Jamario Thomas and Patrick Cobbs. Dodge said the increase in carries has been mostly situational, and that the Mean Green offense will continue to take what its opponent gives it.​

“If a team lines up with five in the box or six in the box, we’ll run the ball,” Dodge said. “If someone lines up seven or eight in the box, we’ll throw the ball. A lot of people don’t understand, you can’t just force-feed carries. In the situation the other night, we were able to get him the ball. It’s not a situation where he hasn’t earned it. He’s definitely earned it. He’s a very valuable member and obviously a very productive member of our offense.”​
Buzz up!
 
By Brett Vito / Staff Writer

North Texas head coach Todd Dodge didn’t change his approach when it came time for the Mean Green’s team meeting Sunday night.

Dodge has emphasized the positive all season. He just had a whole lot more ammunition after the Mean Green knocked off Western Kentucky on Saturday for its first win since last November.

“We had our players in for video and team meeting,” Dodge said. “It was a tremendous feeling to reflect on the reasons we won. Earlier in the season we had to reflect on the reasons we almost won.”

The difference was more than subtle for the Mean Green, which will have some added confidence heading into a game at Florida Atlantic on Saturday. UNT will be looking to win consecutive games for the first time since beating Idaho and Arkansas State to wrap up its fourth straight Sun Belt Conference title in 2004.

UNT lost to Southern Mississippi in the New Orleans Bowl a little more than three weeks later.

The Mean Green has won just eight games since and gradually lost the confidence it built while dominating the league. Only a handful of players who were redshirt freshmen during the 2004 season are left from UNT’s last bowl team.

Pulling out a win over the Hilltoppers was rewarding for all of UNT’s players, including those who were not around to enjoy the Mean Green’s last winning season. UNT blew a 17-point lead in the third quarter before bouncing back and making a series of key plays late.

Senior wide receiver Casey Fitzgerald, who spent the 2004 as a walk-on redshirt freshman, scored the game-winning touchdown with 2:27 left on a 27-yard pass from Giovanni Vizza.

Junior linebacker Tobe Nwigwe, whose brother Joel was on UNT’s Sun Belt title teams in 2002 and 2003, returned an interception 97 yards for a touchdown to ice the win.
“It definitely makes a difference when you talk about winning,” Dodge said. “We needed a shot of confidence and a huge burden off of us. Losing was tough.”
Building on that win could be a challenge for UNT, which will face an FAU team that has won all four games in its series with the Mean Green.​
 
DENTON — In the context of creeping progress, North Texas did something on defense it rarely has in coach Todd Dodge's two seasons.
Directly account for a victory.

After Western Kentucky climbed back into an eventual 51-40 UNT victory on Saturday, the Mean Green defense withstood an impossible situation.
With time expiring, WKU had three cracks to score from UNT’s 1 and didn’t. UNT’s Steve Warren crashed into Hilltoppers quarterback David Wolke, who floated a bad pass to UNT’s Tobe Nwigwe.

Seconds later, Nwigwe scored at the other end of the field on a 97-yard interception return to end the game. Linebackers Warren and Nwigwe each stuffed a play for no gain before Nwigwe’s pickoff.

"Potentially, when they make up their minds, they can keep from getting knocked off the ball and make plays in crucial situations," Dodge said. "What it said about our entire team — and our defense happened to be last out there — is that they made up their minds that whatever happened, we were going to do everything we could to win."

UNT’s defensive concerns were hardly alleviated, but for one night, that unit wasn’t its usual maligned self.

"It sure didn’t look very good when they had the ball with 22 seconds left and three shots from the half-yard line," Dodge said. "But we made the plays, and it was a lot of fun."

Kickoff carnage
Todd Dodge called UNT’s kickoff coverage at Western Kentucky on Saturday "horrible" after the Hilltoppers averaged nearly 30-yards per return. UNT (29.2) ranks behind only West Virginia (29.6) in the Bowl Subdivision in most yards allowed per kickoff return.

Dodge said Tuesday he’s concerned kick coverage could turn Saturday’s game at FAU against the Mean Green and "there could be personnel changes."

UNT has allowed two touchdowns on kickoff returns, including one of 97 yards. On Saturday, a long Western Kentucky kick return and a fumbled kick return by UNT’s John Shorter resulted in the Hilltoppers narrowing UNT’s lead from 31-14 to 31-27 in just two plays.
"Our offense hadn’t even touched the ball," Dodge said.

Got away
A year ago, UNT let what looked like a sure victory against Florida Atlantic disappear in the fourth quarter. FAU (3-5, 1-2 Sun Belt) hosts UNT (1-8, 0-4) at 3 p.m. Saturday.

"We should have beat them last year," Dodge said. "It was one of those, as the year was over with, that you really wanted back. Then they end up winning the conference."

UNT led 17-3 early and 20-13 after three quarters. FAU scored twice off blocked UNT punts, drives that started at the Mean Green 18 and 17, respectively. FAU outscored UNT 20-0 in the final 18 minutes.
"That game really got them going and won a championship for them," Dodge said.
 

BOCA RATON — Even without seeing the results of an MRI, Florida Atlantic coach Howard Schnellenberger said that right tackle John Rizzo will likely miss the remainder of the season.

"The big thing about losing John is not just the fact that he grades about as high or higher than all of our linemen. He's also the unanimous choice for leader on the offensive line and the offensive team, and has a bunch of influence over our defense," Schnellenberger said.

Rizzo suffered what Schnellenberger said was a torn ACL in his right knee during the first half of Saturday's win against Louisiana-Monroe.

Redshirt senior Vinnie Henderson, a former defensive lineman, replaced Rizzo at right tackle Saturday. That doesn't automatically mean Henderson will get the start when the Owls host North Texas on Nov. 8.

Lavoris Williams started the first five games of the season at left tackle, but missed the past two with an injury. Schnellenberger said Williams is ready to come back and could move to right tackle.

"We're going to set up a competition between Henderson and Williams during the 10 days we have going into this game," Schnellenberger said. "We'll grade everything that happens on the football field and see which one grades best."
 
FAU officials are encouraging fans to be part of an “Owl Blue Out” Saturday. All fans are asked to wear FAU blue to the game to show support for the team and celebrate Homecoming.

And if there were ever an opponent to make that atmosphere festive it’s North Texas. The 1-8 Mean Green have held the distinction as the worst team in the division formerly known as I-A for most of the season, but ruined their winless season by stumbling to a 51-40 victory over Western Kentucky Saturday.

The only reason to pause is North Texas put up 51 points on Western Kentucky team that the Owls struggled to defeat 24-20.

Still, the Owls should take advantage of another dreadful opponent. Although the last two wins have been uncomfortably close, the fact is FAU is in the midst of consecutive games against three of the worst teams in I-A, despite ULM’s narrow win over Troy.

This stretch of Western Kentucky, ULM and North Texas could not have been better timed for FAU.
 
Boise vs Utah State

The Boise State Broncos, the ninth-ranked team in the nation this week, try to exert their domination at home against yet another Western Athletic Conference opponent this weekend as they host the Utah State Aggies on the blue turf.


As the nation's winningest team since 2006 with 31 victories, the Broncos have reeled off 47 straight home wins during the regular season and have defeated 36 consecutive WAC opponents on their own field.

Ranked 10th in the BCS after eight games, BSU is still undefeated in 2008 after dismantling New Mexico State in Las Cruces over the weekend in a 49-0 final.

Except for allowing 32 points to nationally-ranked Oregon back on September 20th, the Broncos have surrendered double-digit points just one other time this season when they defeated San Jose State a couple weeks back by a score of 33-16.

After this outing the team continues to shoot for another WAC title with road tests at Idaho and Nevada and then closes out the regular season with a date against Fresno State at home at the end of the month.

Meanwhile Utah State, which is seventh in the WAC standings with two wins in five chances, snapped a four-game slide last Saturday with a 30-14 romp over the Hawaii Warriors, last season's WAC champions. USU has just two total wins on the year, but there are still opportunities down the road versus both Louisiana Tech and New Mexico State before the clock runs out.

BSU has a record of 10-4 versus USU following a devastating 52-0 thrashing of the Aggies a season ago in Logan.

For the season, Utah State has had a real tough time keeping drives alive with a mere 29 percent success on third down.

Against the defending WAC champions, the Aggies brought out their best defensive effort of the season. Roy Hurst, one of four players with a team- high six tackles, could have easily won the league's defensive player of the week award with his forced fumble and blocked kick, but instead that recognition went to teammate Paul Igboeli who also had a blocked kick and a fumble recovery.

"We are excited for Paul because he has played more snaps than anybody on our football team," said coach Guy during his weekly press conference. "He doesn't come out very much on defense. He has played a lot of football and played very well." Igboeli is currently third on the team in total tackles with 58, while Jake Hutton heads the list with his 76 stops and is also first with six TFLs, but has just half a sack to his credit.

Sacks have been a precious commodity for the Aggies this season, with the team averaging just one per game to rank seventh in the WAC and tied for 104th in the country this week. Because of the lack of pressure, USU is giving up a hefty 35.6 ppg, which means the

With 34.6 ppg, BSU is not only second in the conference, it is also 23rd in the nation this week.

As impressive as the offense for the Broncos was in the shutout win on Saturday, perhaps the defense was even more so as it held one of the nation's top passers in Chase Holbrook to a mere12-of-20 for 64 yards and an interception.

Add to that a run defense that clamped down on the Aggies and permitted the home team a mere 38 yards on 39 attempts, and it was simply one of the best all-around efforts of the season for Boise State. However, as perfect as the effort may have seemed, head coach Chris Petersen is still not fully convinced that his team is ready for the national spotlight and the BCS.

"We've got a long way to go," Petersen was quoted by the AP after the NMSU effort. "We've just got to get a lot better ourselves before we worry about any of that stuff. And we're getting better but this will be a tough road the next four weeks."

Petersen would like his team to get better, as does every coach, but how much better can the Broncos be than they are now with the second-ranked pass defense with a rating of 91.22 and the nation's second-best scoring defense with a mere 9.9 ppg allowed
 
More Boise vs USU

As much as Utah State would like to savor its victory over Hawaii, the Aggies know they can’t afford to do that.

That’s because an extremely difficult task awaits them: No. 9 Boise State on the road.

“We’ve got a great challenge ahead of us,” USU head coach Brent Guy said Monday during his weekly press conference. “Just like we had to forget about the Fresno game the week before, that Hawaii game is gone now.

“We’ve got our eyes set on Boise because playing in Boise has not been easy for anyone in the WAC since they’ve been in (the league).”


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That’s for sure.

The Broncos have won 30 WAC home games in a row and 36 straight league games on the blue turf between the WAC and Big West.

“We’re gonna have to play our best football,” Guy said. “Just like Hawaii, this is not a team that we’ve competed well against since we’ve been in the WAC and we need to find a way to battle with them and get to the fourth quarter.”

Prior to beating Hawaii last Saturday, the Aggies had lost three in a row to the Warriors, who were averaging 55 points per game in that span.

USU hasn’t gotten to the fourth quarter with a chance to win against Boise State in quite some time now.

Just in the last three games alone between these two teams, the Broncos are winning by an average margin of 38.3.

“We’ve got a great challenge ahead of us,” Guy said. “We’ve gotta practice well, just like we did last week, and prepare to play a team in the top 10 that’s trying to be a BCS buster. They’ll be highly motivated and we’re gonna have to play our best football game.”

Guy hopes his team can carry over some success from the Hawaii game and continue to build upon that as it heads down the final stretch of this season.

The Aggies have just three games left, including two on the road.

“I feel like we got better as a football team ... and that’s what we have to continue to do all the way through November,” Guy said. “We have some areas still we really need to work hard on. There were even some areas we maybe went backward a little bit like our kickoff team allowing that many yards on kickoff returns.

“We’ll continue to evaluate every position and keep it competitive and move guys around to help ourselves.”

One area of emphasis the Aggies will be focusing on this week is their kickoff return coverage.

The Warriors averaged 51.3 yards per kick return. Malcolm Lane led the way with 154 yards on three returns. He even had a 91-yarder, but was stripped of the ball by Joshua Taylor on USU’s 5-yard line.

“The carry over of what we’re gonna remember is the good stuff and what we still have to correct,” Guy said. “Like I told them, we’re not a bad football team because we lost to Fresno State. We’re a better football team, they just made a great play at the end of the game.

“We have not arrived just because we beat Hawaii. We’ve got a lot of work to do.”

Wide receiver Otis Nelson injured his ankle early in the third quarter against Hawaii. He may not be completely healthy by this weekend, but Guy is hoping his senior will be able to go.

“He’s off the crutches and walking, so that’s an encouraging sign,” Guy said. “He’s still got a lot of swelling that we’re gonna have to get out. I don’t know that he can be 100 percent by Saturday, hopefully he can, but I think he’ll make the trip.”

Nelson is the Aggies’ top receiver with 30 catches for 375 yards and four touchdowns.
 
Rice vs Army

Having watched his offense scrap and claw for every point it accumulated last season, Owls football coach David Bailiff proclaimed the need for speed to help alleviate the pressure on the unit to be precise.

Bailiff signed a gaggle of swift recruits, none of whom are impacting the offense. Despite that fact, the Owls are far more explosive this season, and they continue to exploit the opposition with their precision.

The Owls produced six touchdown drives of at least 75 yards in last Saturdays 49-44 win over UTEP, upping their season total to 17 such marches. Rice totaled 13 scoring drives of that length last season.

A lot of it is (senior quarterback) Chase (Clement) making great decisions, Bailiff said. Hes really turned into a student of the game. Hes in (the film room) all the time reading coverages, and he knows where the soft spots are going to be.

The Owls rank ninth nationally in scoring offense at 41.1 points per game, and stand just eight points shy of breaking the school single-season record of 377 set last season. The Owls have already matched their output from last season of 51 touchdowns.

Their prolific pace sans a deep threat is something to marvel.

Coach (Tom) Herman and I always talk about taking the easy ones, Clement said of the Owls offensive coordinator. On third-and-nine dont think that you have to throw a 20-yard pass. You can check down to a running back and he can make a play and you can make your first down. Its important not to stress when you get in those situations, and take the easy ones.
 
For all you stat guys out there

One of the most widely known angles in college football wagering is siding with the conference home underdog (CHU). The trend began slowly this year, as just eight of the first 20 teams fitting this description covered over the first five weeks of the season.

As out-of-conference games dwindled, more opportunities began to spring up. Nevertheless, the road favorites not only maintained their stranglehold on their league counterparts but improved their winning percentage to a fantastic 65%, with a 21-10 ATS mark after the first 31 contests.

Would 2008 be known as the year the CHU's failed to fire? Weeks eight and nine provided a glimmer of hope, as the dogs turned the corner with consecutive 10-8 and 11-8 records. Nothing special, but at least it was the first time all season long that they came out on the winning side in back-to-back weeks.

Those who did not get discouraged were about to be rewarded. Week 10 provided 16 possibilities, beginning with a pair of games on Tuesday and Thursday.

On October 28, Houston was giving a touchdown at Marshall, and the Thundering Herd dominated from start to finish for the 37-23 victory. Two nights later, another conference home underdog came through with the outright "W," when Cincinnati cruised to a 14-point win over South Florida.

Saturday was more of the same as 10 of the 13 CHU's covered the spread with six winning straight up.

On Sunday evening, UCF became the 13th of 16 conference home dogs to gain the ATS victory to improve the winning percentage to an astounding 81%, raising the overall mark to 64% the last three weeks.


 
Zona vs WSU (even 41pts may not be a high enough line in this one)

Washington State has already allowed 350 points - more than any team in Pac-10 history - and there are few signs of improvement heading into Saturday's game against Arizona (5-3, 3-2).

"There are some who want to quit," Washington State coach Kevin Lopina told the Seattle Times.

Wulff booted a number of players with attitude or legal problems, stayed steadfast in his approach to save redshirt seasons for most of the 2008 recruiting class and developed a unity council to make players more accountable.
Blowout losses have piled up in the process.

"In the long run, we are going to be much better," Wulff said. "I knew there were going to be some bullets thrown. I am here to take them. I have a plan and we are going to stick to it and it is going to work."

There are the obvious problems on the field:

The Cougars have not scored in 10 quarters. They are averaging 12 points per game. WSU is allowing a nation's-worst 49 points a game and giving up 459 yards per game - 275 yards rushing.

The Cougars have been outscored 172-0 since a 16-yard interception return for a touchdown late in the second quarter against Oregon State on Oct. 11.
WSU's lone victory was 48-9 over Portland State.

Five quarterbacks have played, with three injured. A scout team signal caller was picked up after campus tryouts.

"Their depth has been hit pretty hard," Stoops said. "Obviously, at quarterback it has been very unstable."

There are off-the-field issues to work out:
In an 18-month span ending two months before the season, 25 players were arrested or charged with offenses that carried possible jail time, the Seattle Times reported.

Most of the legal issues were misdemeanors, but one player faced a felony for hitting another on the head with a frying pan. Another soaked a teammate's contact lenses in rubbing alcohol.

A stigma was placed on the school by former defensive back Courtney Williams.
"WSU is a hard school to go to, man," Williams told the Times. "You ain't got nothin' to do but get drunk and smoke weed and not go to class because you're too tired from doing what you're doing."

The Cougars lost eight scholarships due to failing academic standards for the 2006-07 season.

The fall for Washington State was quick. Then-coach Mike Price had Washington State going 30-8 during the 2001-03 seasons, winning a Sun Bowl and Holiday Bowl.
The 2002 Cougars lost 34-14 in the Rose Bowl to Oklahoma.
The decline has hit bottom.

"I didn't know exactly what I was walking into," Wulff said on Tuesday.
Patience is running thin.

"Over the years, Wazzu football fans have dealt with pathetic play at times, but this is beyond that," Seattle Post Intelligencer columnist Jim Moore blogged. "It's otherworldly pathetic, not to mention unacceptable and inexcusable. Some blame former coach Bill Doba. Some blame the players. But the man ultimately responsible is coach Paul Wulff."
 
very nice card, likey on most with you...

wondered what your thoughts were on ull this week hosting utep. was considering a large play there as they have been so far ahead of the number most weeks this year (and kept me ahead as well!). i am very impressed with this team. concerned when the open 10 dropped to 9 right away. you seem to be the pulse of the sunbelt!
 
I don't understand how WSU can be this bad. On defense they had alot of returnees, it's not like half their roster graduated when Wulff took over. Wulff is a winning coach he won on a lower level, is a WSU alum, read about him in the offseason he was bringing back the old WSU style of play, sacks, lots of scoring, etc.

The talent Doba recruited must of been shit. Keith Jackson gotta be rolling over in his grave right now what a disgrace.

....CB, who do you take, North Texas, or Washington State head on??

What is AMAZING is Okie State only beat them 39-13. 367 yars of offense is all they could muster and it was just a 3-0 game after 1 quarter.

....Every week the Gameday backdrop still fly's the Washington State flag no matter where Gameday is. Now THAT guy is a true fan.

I think the real question here is how bad is Portland State???? They lost 48-9 to Washington State. And here is some shit for ya, Portland State beat Eastern Washington by double digits, the same Eastern Washington that made Texas Tech look subpar and get ppl "concerned" in their opener, and the same Eastern Washinton that should of beaten Colorado if not for a pick six in the final minute.
 
This Zona spread might be the easiest play on the board this week. People don't even really give it a second thought because of the number. But if you really think about it fading this shit ass WSU team has been so consistent and reliable and it's so money if they face a competent offense.

Honestly this play will probably cover. There aren't many variables in play here. No concern of WSU has some run edge, they could pass a little, can get some picks, if Arizona is better "situationally", if they need to win the TO margin, none. There is no capping and no give and take where WSU could make up some areas where you thought they wouldn't do well in by being great in an area you gave them only a slight edge. ONLY VARIABLE IS does Arizona show up but that is mitigated by the fact WSU has already not shown up by given up on the season.

----A new angle needs to be looked into. It's called fading shit teams like Washington and Washington State despite the spread. Riding really good teams like Penn State and Bama has been money but maybe more importance needs to be placed on the other side of the ledger, that has been money as well.

The Apple State. wow. Basketball season is right around the corner.


----EX, the number is so high I don't even have Arizona on my board as a TMO. It scares people away. But this might be the easiest play out there. Heck, it probably is more I think about it. And I still don't think I could ever play it.
 
A new angle needs to be looked into. It's called fading shit teams like Washington and Washington State despite the spread.
Click to expand...

This is something I've failed to do in the past with teams like Iowa State and Mississippi State in 2003. My crude number-crunching couldn't justify the pointspreads each week, so I held off and was always afraid I'd be the sucker who jumped on the bandwagon right before it crashed.

Not this time. I've gone against WSU in every lined game this year and against UW in 4 of the last 5, so I'm playing with house money when I play the Arizona teams this week.
 
wondered what your thoughts were on ull this week hosting utep. was considering a large play there as they have been so far ahead of the number most weeks this year (and kept me ahead as well!). i am very impressed with this team. concerned when the open 10 dropped to 9 right away. you seem to be the pulse of the sunbelt!
Click to expand...

Ditto.
 
scraps@midnight said:
very nice card, likey on most with you...

wondered what your thoughts were on ull this week hosting utep. was considering a large play there as they have been so far ahead of the number most weeks this year (and kept me ahead as well!). i am very impressed with this team. concerned when the open 10 dropped to 9 right away. you seem to be the pulse of the sunbelt!
Click to expand...

No value at all in this line for me as I was looking to play ULL but was hoping to only have to lay 6 or less. With the way both teams can score, I wouldn't lay 9+ on this one as the backdoor could come into play late, but I also wouldn't risk UTEP because their defense is going to have all sorts of problems with Mike D and Fenroy for ULL.

UTEP is gonna get burned all night while on defense as ULL is going to easily get 200+ on the ground, and Mike D will have receivers going against man to man coverage b/c he is gonna keep UTEP on their toes with his legs. They are going to be more tentative than usual on defense because of his ability to run and throw, so that should lead to some big plays for the Cajuns.

The wildcard here though is that ULL will be vulnerable against the offensive attack of the Miners, as ULL still hasn't improved on defense as much as they would have hoped this year. They have the firepower to outscore UTEP though, as I see this one playing out similarly to the Rice vs UTEP game, but with a little more cushion as long as the Cajuns don't turn the ball over.

If I was a ML dog player, I would probably toss a little on UTEP to win SU as I wouldn't be shocked if that happened, but the safest bet here would be the over as I don't think a 45-35 game is out of the question. Again, no play for me, but best of luck this weekend either way.
 
O-State said:
I don't understand how WSU can be this bad. On defense they had alot of returnees, it's not like half their roster graduated when Wulff took over. Wulff is a winning coach he won on a lower level, is a WSU alum, read about him in the offseason he was bringing back the old WSU style of play, sacks, lots of scoring, etc.

The talent Doba recruited must of been shit. Keith Jackson gotta be rolling over in his grave right now what a disgrace.

....CB, who do you take, North Texas, or Washington State head on??

What is AMAZING is Okie State only beat them 39-13. 367 yars of offense is all they could muster and it was just a 3-0 game after 1 quarter.

....Every week the Gameday backdrop still fly's the Washington State flag no matter where Gameday is. Now THAT guy is a true fan.

I think the real question here is how bad is Portland State???? They lost 48-9 to Washington State. And here is some shit for ya, Portland State beat Eastern Washington by double digits, the same Eastern Washington that made Texas Tech look subpar and get ppl "concerned" in their opener, and the same Eastern Washinton that should of beaten Colorado if not for a pick six in the final minute.
Click to expand...


Interesting question about NT vs WSU...

I take North Texas over WSU with no hesitation as I think NT has a lot more heart than this WSU team does. NT has been beaten down the last few years, but they don't quit in their games and fight from start to finish even when getting blown out, whereas WSU seems to not have any pride once they fall behind, as they seem to be more focused on seeing that clock hit all zeroes rather than fighting until the final whistle.
 
carolinablue said:
No value at all in this line for me as I was looking to play ULL but was hoping to only have to lay 6 or less. With the way both teams can score, I wouldn't lay 9+ on this one as the backdoor could come into play late, but I also wouldn't risk UTEP because their defense is going to have all sorts of problems with Mike D and Fenroy for ULL.

UTEP is gonna get burned all night while on defense as ULL is going to easily get 200+ on the ground, and Mike D will have receivers going against man to man coverage b/c he is gonna keep UTEP on their toes with his legs. They are going to be more tentative than usual on defense because of his ability to run and throw, so that should lead to some big plays for the Cajuns.

The wildcard here though is that ULL will be vulnerable against the offensive attack of the Miners, as ULL still hasn't improved on defense as much as they would have hoped this year. They have the firepower to outscore UTEP though, as I see this one playing out similarly to the Rice vs UTEP game, but with a little more cushion as long as the Cajuns don't turn the ball over.

If I was a ML dog player, I would probably toss a little on UTEP to win SU as I wouldn't be shocked if that happened, but the safest bet here would be the over as I don't think a 45-35 game is out of the question. Again, no play for me, but best of luck this weekend either way.
Click to expand...

appreciate the reply cb and agree with much of it. i think the moneyline would be the correct play if you wanted to back utep but i am more inclined to side with ull here. although they will struggle on defense i think they will be able to come up with more stops and in the type of shootout i forsee, that will be the deciding factor. no play for me yet but pretty warm on it. hoping there is some more help coming on the line...that would prolly push me on. i support the over as well.
again...great response...thanks and good luck.:shake:
 
I like both Rice and BG as strong plays, Cb .
I'm leaning Monroe +4 1/2 and ASU -2 1/2.
Any opinions on them? I suppose maybe not or they would be among your plays.
GL - get that ball rolling again.
 
bull said:
I like both Rice and BG as strong plays, Cb .
I'm leaning Monroe +4 1/2 and ASU -2 1/2.
Any opinions on them? I suppose maybe not or they would be among your plays.
GL - get that ball rolling again.
Click to expand...
Love to hear both of your thoughts on Monroe. Their defense just looks like its horrible though...GL fellas.
 
bull said:
I like both Rice and BG as strong plays, Cb .
I'm leaning Monroe +4 1/2 and ASU -2 1/2.
Any opinions on them? I suppose maybe not or they would be among your plays.
GL - get that ball rolling again.
Click to expand...

Slight lean towards both, but not enough to make the play list. Wouldn't be surprised if ULM wins SU.
 
RJ Esq said:
CB, can you explain why you like UNT--a team that has routinely lost on the road to other Sun Belt teams by more than 21--on the road against FAU?

Don't get me wrong. I made the line -14 for FAU so UNT getting an extra TD looks like value. Just seeing if there is something more than value behind the play.
Click to expand...

This year North Texas has only played 1 road conference game to date and that was a 23-35 lost at a solid ULM team that was picked to contend for the Sunbelt crown this year, but has definitely underachieved just like FAU has. ULM went up 21-0 but then sleepwalked through the rest of the game, but North Texas never gave up as they continued to fight in the 2H, and that is a big reason why I like them this weekend getting 3 scores against FAU on the road.

Now compared to their play in that game, their play at home has been pretty bad losing 10-42 vs FIU, 30-59 vs ULL, and 17-45 vs Troy. They were never in any of those games really, and they didn't demonstrate the same tenacity at home that they did in the road game vs ULM.

With regard to the matchup this weekend, we all know that North Texas is one of if not the worst defensive team in football and the rankings support that as they are #118 out of 119 teams in total defense, but FAU isn't exactly a juggernaut as they are #89. Also, both of these teams are bad when it comes to turnover margin, with NT at #117 but FAU right there with them at #116. FAU actually is worse when it comes to tackles for loss, scoring offense, and punting, and all these things are factors which help when you are getting 21 points as field position and the ability to just hang close are crucial when backing a big dog.

Lastly, to say FAU has underachieved this year would be a huge understatement as no one could have predicted they would have played as poorly as they have this season, and even though having North Texas come to town may allow them to take out some frustrations from this disappointment of a season, it won't change the fact that North Texas will be able to get the running game going against the Owls #101 rushing defense, which in turn will set Vizza up for some big plays on offense. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if NT breaks a couple huge returns on special teams as returning kicks is one area which they seem to be improving in every day (now if only they can defend returns!).

North Texas has some confidence from their road performance last week, and I really think this one will be a lot closer than many think, although I fully expect FAU to pull away in the end. I am sure Smith will throw for 400+ for FAU, but Vizza will get 300+ in the air and Montgomery should be able to rush for 100+ in what should be an entertaining game to check out. I will take my chances getting 21 in what should be another high scoring shootout as the backdoor will be open until that final whistle blows.
 
Thanks for the reply, Cb . I have played ASU and will likely try Monroe as well.
As you may know, I am not selective. I playa lot of games so one that doesn't make your list may well make mine
 
GL CB, saw there were some crazy games in the Sun Belt last week. Nice to see you on the right side.

Jpicks is the MWC whore I think you should be the Sun Belt guru.

Would say I knew the least about that conference coming into this year. Opened my eyes to pay attention a little more, but still don't have a handle on it.
 
Wow you really do have the off the radar games this week.

Best of luck CB


always nice to see the miners talked about in a thread.
 
ADDING NORTH TEXAS TT O20.5

As noted earlier, the return game and the rushing attack will be the differences here as North Texas should be good for 21 as early as the first half as long as they don't turn the ball over.
 
Week 11 Results

3-4 on the day as my North Texas call has to be one of my worst of the year. Ok, not as bad as my WSU team total last week but pretty darn close! Anyway, seem to be alternating 3-4 and 4-3 type weeks the last month or so, so we'll see how things shake out in week 12. Plenty of profit still to be had, and congrats to those who made out big this week as it was a tough card.

See you guys in the week 12 thread!

Year to Date
49-40-1

Road Favs 23-15
Home Favs 13-11
Road Dogs 11-8
Home Dogs 1-0-1
Totals 1-6 (someone please ban me from the site if I ever play another total!)
 
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