CarolinaBlue Week 11 Plays - 1st Official CTG Thread for Me




carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Figured it was about damn time I got serious about posting over here, so let's get this week 11 discussion going.

Confirmed posted record 59-39

Road Favs 27-18
Road Dogs 17-8
Home Favs 13-10
Home Dogs 2-2

Why do I even bother with the home teams, when the road teams have been money for me all season?!?!


Posted earlier this afternoon...

The VILLE -4 120
OREGON +8.5 114


Added Plays....

Those who know me know that I love the under the radar games, so you just knew I had some of those coming after starting my card this afternoon with 2 plays from the major conferences...

TROY -3.5 112
MTSU -3.5 119

I know that many guys are afraid of the Sun Belt conference because of the supposed "shadiness" factor, but I don't worry about stuff like that so no fear here. To me, these two games will come down to both teams being able to impose their will on their opponents through the running game. Both of these teams are battling for the title in the Sun Belt with MTSU in the drivers seat but Troy not too far behind. MTSU became bowl eligible last week but that won't mean a thing if they don't take care of business this week in Jonesboro, while Troy had a nice win on Saturday, but need to follow it up with a big victory this weekend to keep pace with the Raiders. I like the 3.5 lines here as it protects against a 24-20 type of outcome. I know very few will be on these, but I like my under the radar plays, like San Jose last night, so we'll see what happens in the wacky world of Sun Belt football, where anything can happen and it usually does!


TEMPLE +35 107

This is one of those weird situations where I think the human element will come into play. PSU is far better than Temple obviously, but the Lions also don't want to completely embarrass one of their own, so I think they up off the gas in this one, moreso than they would vs another weaker team. Temple's first year coach Al Golden was a Penn State team captain and 4 year letterwinner under JoePa and he also served as PSU linebackers coach during the 2000 season. Additionally, the Owls' defensive coordinator Mark D'Onofrio is also a fellow Nittany Lion, as are the Temple DL coach, Matt Rhule, and Temple RB coach Jeff Nixon. I honestly believe that PSU will be happy with a 27-7 victory or something like that on Saturday as they aren't going to be looking to win by 5TDs plus.

Keep up the great work with the site guys. Nice to feel at home with guys who understand that its not about us beating and bashing each other, but about making sure as many of us as possible keep banking profit and putting the cash in our pockets and bank accounts instead of keeping it offshore or in the hands of the locals!

Best of luck this week guys!



Current Card

The Ville -4
Oregon +8.5
Temple +35
MTSU -3.5
Troy -3.5
 
Awesome card, CB.

Like the Ville and Oregon at those numbers. Know you're also solid on your Sun Belt plays.

Looks great.
 
MTSU was one of the first ones that stood out to me on this card. They have been taking care of business week in and week out. I'll PROBABLY try Troy too, but I'm not positive on that one...Troy plays some awfully sloppy games...

No interest in the Temple game, but I do think you have the right side...
 
CB - Glad to see your CFB card posted. I'm hoping I'll see you in the CBB forum come November 9th as well.

I like both of your big conference games and I'll hop on them with my local when the lines come out later tonight.

As for the Temple play, if I wouldn't have seen this thread I'd have made an automatic play on Penn State (fade Temple). The human factor makes a lot of sense to me in this case. You see it a lot in college football, only most of the time where they use to be an assistant coach.

Good luck with the plays. Should be another profitable week for you.
 
RJ - Thanks, appreciate the post.

Seabass - Yeah, MTSU is starting to play really well and Marks has really stepped up his game the last few weeks. I hear what you are saying about Troy, but they seem to be limiting the mistakes the last few weeks or at least they are not making them at the most inopportune of times (unlike my Heels of course).

Fondy - Yeah, I admit even I almost hit the back button after hitting submit on the Temple play and realizing what I had done. I almost went into a panic over the fact that I am actually laying a good amount of money on them to cover this weekend. I honestly do think that PSU will go easy on em though because there are a good number of old Nittany Lions now coaching for Temple and JoePa and co. are class acts who aren't out to embarrass anyone in the family.
 
CB - what's your thoughts on the broken leg JoePa has effecting the game? I'm thinking the defensive coordinator was there when Temples coach was too? Just something else for PSU to worry about this week as well... Plus Temple has been playing really well lately in second halves.
 
Tailing your Sun Belt plays. Usually solid.

Thinking about the Temple dog play. Temple is 5-1 ATS last 6 games. Only loss is Clemson.

Penn St has their 6 wins and is bowl eligible. They can take it easy, get healthy, and beat MSU at home for an 8 win season.
 
Thanks Huntdog. Now who is on board the Temple train with me? Anyone? Anyone? (shrugs and walks away)

Haha, best of luck this week guys.
 
carolinablue said:
Thanks Huntdog. Now who is on board the Temple train with me? Anyone? Anyone? (shrugs and walks away)

Haha, best of luck this week guys.
Click to expand...

Ironically I am actually considering them. I am not sure if that is good for you though, they have beaten me 3 times this yr! :hairout:
 
Looks good CB. Glad to have an ofical playlist from yas over here. Your insight is invaluable.
 
CB, I have sipped the Kool-Aid from the cup too.

Got Temple +34 -102 sunday night.

good luck, and thanks for sharing info, I have learned a lot from you.
 
gl CB, always liked your work, watched you pick some winners over at that other site...gl and keep those winners coming:cheers:
 
MTSU @ Arkansas St

That line really looks low. I guess it should be at -7 or -8 if you go through power ratings. Are there injury concerns for MTSU?
 
Okay guys, looking to round out the card, but can't decide between the following 5 plays. I am posting the lines that I would take (juice would be 115-120 on each), so let me know your thoughts on which are the ones I should lock in, and which are the ones I should take off my list.

Wake +10
Texas -16.5
Tx Tech +10
Navy -12.5
Cincy +20

Later.
 
Hey CB - I think Navy and Wake are the two best sides out of those 5. Just my opinion of course. GL bud.
 
CB - I'm on the Temple train with you. Central Mich was 9-0 ATS until they played Temple, but your reasoning holds more water. Thanks and GL
 
Here is how I have my 5 plays ranked in my head right now...

1. Navy - #1 rushing attack against a horrible EMU defense that has played a bunch of teams who haven't been able to convert in the red zone. Navy is gonna run 70 times for 400 yds just like vs Duke. I am not sure EMU has the offense to put up more than 17 while Navy should get at least 30. Couple that with the fact that Navy has been tested against some solid competition while Eastern frankly hasn't. Eastern is usually good for a couple games where they give up like 500+ offense and 40+ points, so I think this might be the week. I like 12.5 better than 14 because teams seem to be getting lulled to sleep when playing Eastern for some reason.

2. Tx Tech - This is a tough one b/c OU is rolling right now, but OU hasn't really played a strong passing team since the Ducks (Mizzou is marginal to me but an argument could be made for them I guess), so I think that Tech could stay within 10 in this one. Worst case 31-21 type of game, so I would look to get 10.5 or 11.5 for 120 or less if the line gets there.

3. Wake - I know this one isn't popular, but I am not buying into all the FSU love, even with the X-man at QB. This is still a 5-4 team that is lacking discipline and the ability to make the plays at clutch time. The UVA game is irrelevant to me b/c UVA played their hearts out the last few weeks so they were pretty much due for a bad outing. Wake probably isn't an 8-1 team, but I also don't think they are a team that should be getting 10 vs this Seminole team either. I think this is a 1 score ballgame either way.

4. Cincy - This one is tough b/c I could see Cincy putting in another scrappy outing and pulling out the cover, but the wildcard that is the WVU emotional state has me backing off a little here. Cincy has a strong rush D but they haven't played anyone who has the rushing attack of WVU. This is one of those games where Cincy could stick around for a while but WVU has that quick strike capability that is deadly when you are hoping for a 20 pt dog to get the cover. Not sure yet.

5. Texas - They should roll here, but 17 is a lot to lay on the road against a mediocre but not horrible KSU team. I thought KSU was pretty bad but they have shown some life the last few weeks, so they may put up a fight this weekend against the Horns. Just not sure if it is worth laying this many on the road, although Texas could easily win this one by 20+

Later.
 
First of all, I'm a Sunbelt afficionado so I welcome your thoughts on those games. Although this is a conference where teams seem to be evenly matched and dog plays make sense, I agree with you on both of these. GL.

Interesting commentary on Temple-JoPa U.
I have done all right betting on Temple selectively this year.
Too early for me on this one because I'm a late decision maker ( Friday Nites Saturday am S Ha Ha)

Of your other 5, didn't I notice that WVU Slaton and White were hurt last week? Seems like Slaton was nursing a bad hand and White appeared to be limping. Cincy has exceeded expectations this year and I think they are a reasonable play.
All I can say about Navy is that denfulks really really likes them. ( assuming you are familiar with him ) not a tout, he posts here sometimes but is mostly posting somewhere else. He's convince me to coattail and I bot down a half to 13.
As for the others, It's too early in the week for me to comment. GL, carolina. ( you may know me as 'taurus' over there.)
 
I've played Cincy and I think they are a very solid play this week...my second choice of those would be Wake...as if it gets to 10 w/ normal juice I will be on it as well...

They're one of those teams that you watch the game and you just can't figure out how they won the damn game, but they did.
 
I actually decided to lock Navy -12.5 122 yesterday evening as I figured I wouldn't get another shot at under 13 for that price, as the line has done nothing but move against me so far this week, and luckily for me it looks like I made the right choice there as the line is up to 15 110, although I am still kicking myself for not jumping on 11 105 around open.

Still debating back and forth on Texas, which has now dropped since yesterday, Texas Tech, which has now gone up, and Wake, which has now dropped. Cincy is too much of a wildcard so I have scratched that one. Honestly, probably gonna scratch Texas also, so it really comes down to Tech or Wake. Tech now has 10 for under 120 and Wake has 9.5 for about the same as the Tech 10. Not sure which is the better road dog choice, so gonna keep looking for input.

Thanks for the great discussion guys.


GO VILLE!
 
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