Carolinablue Week 10 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Week 9 --> 18-8-1 +7.835 units
YTD 118-88-4 +13.284 units 57.3%

Week 10 Plays
12pm UNC -9.5 121 MB
12pm UNC -6 135 BM
12pm UNC TT O33 134 MB - to get to full unit on TT Over
12pm UNC TT O33.5 130 MB - capped at risk 125
12pm Charlotte +17.5 125 MB
12pm Tulane -6.5 131 MB
12pm Ohio State TT O46.5 118 BM

3:30pm UCF/Memphis O59.5 121 BM
3:30pm UTSA ML 131 MB
3:30pm Tenn TT O27.5 111 MB - capped at risk 125
3:30pm Tenn TT O27.5 116 BM - to get to full unit on TT Over
4pm FIU +21.5 110 MB
4pm Liberty +14.5 128

7pm Houston/SMU O64.5 125 BOL
8pm Wake ML 131 MB
8pm Wake TT O29.5 116 MB - capped at risk 125
8pm Wake TT O28 115 BM - to get to full unit on TT Over
8pm Michigan/Rutgers O44 123 BOL

11:30pm USC TT O40.5 115 BOL

2H plays
UNC -5.5 105 MB
OSU -14 122 BOL
 
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Bit of an overreaction IMO to have Wake lined at -1.5 vs State (took ML at 131 as I don't wanna get screwed by a 1 point win), even if it is a night game at Carter Finley. Will take my chances that Hartman will right the ship and exploit the NC State defense as I just don't see State being able to keep up unless of course Wake turns it over 8 times again.
 
Man, UMass is horrible but not sure UConn is good enough to lay 13 to anyone (current line at MB)...tempted to take UMass, but this late in the season, not trying to back bad teams so will lay off.
 
Tempted to take KSU at PK 110 MB but not sure how they will come out after the near perfect showing vs Okie State. Another one I will lay off but it is tempting.
 
carolinablue said:
Wondering if I should juice out my 9.5 or just let it ride….
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UVA has been playing well, exceeding public expectations, in my opinion. I’d let it ride if that’s the number you had it capped at. I’ve become more of a dog player in my elder years. Guess Red finally got to me.

I personally don’t like being on the opposite side of you on this (just as a lean) and UTSA-UAB. Like you, I felt like that line was off, but the other direction. Return of the QB vs. UTSA’s D and UAB’s secondary vs UTSA’s pass O had me feeling fairly confident—enough to make the rare early bet—but now I’m not sure I like the signals over the last 24 hours. You got a good number on the ML. I’ll probably have some fear poos all week unless some things change.

Regardless, BOL, bud.
 
counselor said:
UVA has been playing well, exceeding public expectations, in my opinion. I’d let it ride if that’s the number you had it capped at. I’ve become more of a dog player in my elder years. Guess Red finally got to me.

I personally don’t like being on the opposite side of you on this (just as a lean) and UTSA-UAB. Like you, I felt like that line was off, but the other direction. Return of the QB vs. UTSA’s D and UAB’s secondary vs UTSA’s pass O had me feeling fairly confident—enough to make the rare early bet—but now I’m not sure I like the signals over the last 24 hours. You got a good number on the ML. I’ll probably have some fear poos all week unless some things change.

Regardless, BOL, bud.
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Appreciate the input man! Yeah, I told myself I would play anything less than 10, so when I saw 9.5 I jumped. Even with the injuries, I still don't see why the line has dropped a few points, but I decided to take the 6.5 while it was out there. Think I am gonna just let it ride like this past week where I had the 3 and 4 vs Pitt. With regard to UTSA, I told myself I would play it at 2.5 or less so getting the ML at that number was an instant play for me. All of my plays are numbers based, hence why I jump on things so quickly. If I see the number I have jotted down, I play it and don't look back. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, but overall I have done pretty well with the early lines, so we'll see if I can keep it going in Week 10. Best of luck this week!
 
Added TT Overs on UNC and Wake...will see what BM has on Saturday as I will need to get Wake up to a unit and I also kinda like UMass and USC as well
 
carolinablue said:
Added TT Overs on UNC and Wake...will see what BM has on Saturday as I will need to get Wake up to a unit and I also kinda like UMass and USC as well
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I know you do not play game totals but if the Wake/NCSU total keeps on dropping I may play it in addition to the Wake TT. It is currently 53.5 at BM. NCSU should be able to score with Morris at QB.
 
He Hate Me said:
I know you do not play game totals but if the Wake/NCSU total keeps on dropping I may play it in addition to the Wake TT. It is currently 53.5 at BM. NCSU should be able to score with Morris at QB.
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I hate having to rely on a sketchy offense to give me points so I like playing just one team vs two but can see this one sailing over for sure.
 
I don’t see how your boys don’t roll Uva but I dunno if you remember but I told you I’d put a end to their undefeated season by backing them only time this year vs Irish! Acc is easily my strongest conf year after year but I’m continually terrible with your heels! It’s a really confusing thing! Should I join you? I’d hate to cost ya what should be a easy win! But of course if I leave them off card they win by 10+!
 
Virginia is No. 123 in the nation in points per game (16.9) this season and hasn't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent.
 
2daBank said:
You think Maye better than howell? Sure seems that way to me.
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He has certainly progressed faster than any of us thought he would at this point in his career, and his trajectory is on track to be one of the greatest Tar Heels of all time, but I will let it play out and just enjoy the ride!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t see how your boys don’t roll Uva but I dunno if you remember but I told you I’d put a end to their undefeated season by backing them only time this year vs Irish! Acc is easily my strongest conf year after year but I’m continually terrible with your heels! It’s a really confusing thing! Should I join you? I’d hate to cost ya what should be a easy win! But of course if I leave them off card they win by 10+!
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Line is down to 7 so if I were you I would jump all over that as I have 9.5 and 6.5 on my card along with the team total over. There’s still room on this bandwagon baby so jump on while you can!
 
I guess the one concern I’d have with unc is their 4 road wins 3 have come by a total of 8 points against duke, canes, app st, maybe slightly better teams than uva, then a 7 point win vs Georgia st, doesn’t inspire much confidence they can get margin on the road vs a mediocre team that hasn’t had many home games as of yet. Is heels d so bad a really crappy uva offense can actually score points? I have no clue? It tough for me to predict what wins out between bad offense facing a horrid d?!?? Lol,

Uva has some solid defensive numbers but they havnt faved a offense anywhere close to the firepower on this unc club. Ville was the only close one but Cunningham didn’t play yet ville backup shredded uva thru air and on ground, doesn’t inspire much confidence they slowing Maye down, in fact they not! Lol. Seems like a square play freebee! Kinda feel like heels have done so many ppl wrong last year (mainly me!) they still kinda under radar this year, could be while I’m sure unc the overwhelming lopsided bet in this game might not be that big a handle?
 
2daBank said:
I guess the one concern I’d have with unc is their 4 road wins 3 have come by a total of 8 points against duke, canes, app st, maybe slightly better teams than uva, then a 7 point win vs Georgia st, doesn’t inspire much confidence they can get margin on the road vs a mediocre team that hasn’t had many home games as of yet. Is heels d so bad a really crappy uva offense can actually score points? I have no clue? It tough for me to predict what wins out between bad offense facing a horrid d?!?? Lol,

Uva has some solid defensive numbers but they havnt faved a offense anywhere close to the firepower on this unc club. Ville was the only close one but Cunningham didn’t play yet ville backup shredded uva thru air and on ground, doesn’t inspire much confidence they slowing Maye down, in fact they not! Lol. Seems like a square play freebee! Kinda feel like heels have done so many ppl wrong last year (mainly me!) they still kinda under radar this year, could be while I’m sure unc the overwhelming lopsided bet in this game might not be that big a handle?
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Obviously a lot of money has come in on UVA as it opened at almost 10 and dropped to 7, but same thing happened last week vs Pitt and that’s why me and the family are dining like kings later tonight at Eddie V’s uptown 3B2297E8-E3A7-416C-9093-7251076FB5B4.jpeg
 
carolinablue said:
Obviously a lot of money has come in on UVA as it opened at almost 10 and dropped to 7, but same thing happened last week vs Pitt and that’s why me and the family are dining like kings later tonight at Eddie V’s uptown View attachment 70041
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Gotta be the close road wins? I don’t understand why any money coming in on uva, gotta be so called “sharps” this a “squares” wet dream. I don’t mean that in a negative way at all: im perfectly happy fading the sharps! Just wish I wasn’t so bad with ya’ll squat! If they lose/fail to cover you will know I joined you! Lol
 
carolinablue said:
Virginia is No. 123 in the nation in points per game (16.9) this season and hasn't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent.
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According to my eye, the second half of the Pitt game was the first time this year that the UNC defense was making plays and looked above average. They were calling blitzes and being aggressive. I don't know if the coaches are more comfortable with the defense or what is going on. It is not like they have an unusually young defense that is maturing toward the end of the season.
 
Waiting on TT at BM as the following are of interest depending on the number:

TCU
SMU
USC
BOISE
TENN
UGA

Will also be upping Wake to a full unit as long as the number is 30 or less
 
3:30pm Tenn TT O27.5 111 MB - capped at risk 125
3:30pm Tenn TT O27.5 116 BM - to get to full unit on TT Over
 
All done! Headed to the sports bar in an hour as they just confirmed that they have rebranded to a Carolina bar, so gotta give them a shot and see how it goes!
 
Week 10 —> 8-9-1 -2.99 units

If only Mack wasn’t such a nice guy haha. Everyone in the bar probably thought I was crazy when those last few minutes of the 4th quarter as I needed that last TD that didn’t happen. Can’t complain though as my ACC championship ticket purchase a couple weeks back looks like gold as that game is gonna be crazy.
 
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