Carolinablue Week 1 Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Channeling Andy Williams..."It's the most wonderful time of the year"....

With all due respect to SummerSlam, opening weekend of the college football season is without a doubt the biggest party of the summer and I can't wait! Having a bash at the house on Saturday September 1st to usher in the first full weekend of college football games, and I have to say that it is quite a joy to have a woman in my life who appreciates the art and skill of sports investment and who is genuinely looking forward to the start of the season almost as much as I am. Yes boys, she is a keeper!

I will be focusing mainly on team totals in Week 1, so my plays won't get locked in until those hit the board. I spoke with BM yesterday and they told me they are trying to get team totals up 48 hours before gametime, but may end up posting them sometime between 24-48 hours prior to kickoff, but definitely shooting for prior to gameday which is what most sites end up doing, but time will tell. They also said they will be taking them off the board 15 minutes before kickoff this year.

Wishing everyone the best this season and may we all be pulling a Samoa Joe and asking "Who's Your Daddy?", just like the Samoan Submission Machine did to AJ Styles at SummerSlam. Yes, the wrestling references will be prevalent throughout the season, so "whether you like it, or don't like it, learn to live with it, because it's the best thing going today WOOOOOO!"

Week 1 Plays - All plays to win 1 Unit at BM
  • Duquesne +21 110
  • Ball State -14 110
  • Tulane +8.5 120
  • UNC +8 120
  • WVU -9.5 110
  • LTU -9.5 120
  • ODU -6.5 115
  • Navy vs Hawaii Over 62.5 110
  • Team Total BC Over 40.5 120
  • Team Total WVU Over 34.5 120

Small ML Dog Plays (only risking $50.00 each)
  • FIU +306
  • NIU +306
  • Hawaii +361
 
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Louisiana Tech -9.5 120

I have been keeping my eye on this line throughout the summer and I think this number is the best I am going to get so don't mind paying an extra ten cents to get what I was hoping for on this one. I like the fact that South Alabama has a new coach in Steve Campbell who doesn't have any true big league head coaching experience. Yes, he did lead Delta State to the Division II title as head coach in 2000, then spent one season as MTSU offensive coordinator and one as Jackie Sherrill’s line coach at Mississippi State. Yes, he won 87 games in 10 years at Mississippi Gulf Coast Community College and spent the last four seasons at Central Arkansas. where he won 20 games and a Southland title the last two years, reaching the second round of the FCS playoffs each season, but when all is said and done, he hasn't had a head coaching gig in the FBS and he hasn't beaten the type of competition he will face in Week 1 with LTU.

And yes, I know that he is known for high powered aerial offenses that harken back to the days of Air Coryell, but USA does not have the personnel in place for him to do what he wants in Year 1. I do think that over time as he gets HIS players in place, USA will be a fun team to watch (and potentially back), but this year will not be that time, as these are not his guys. USA not only will be starting a redshirt freshman at QB and has only 1 returning starter on the OL, but they will be going up against an experienced LTU squad that returns 4 on the OL., 4 out of 5 top WR targets and a JR QB in J'Mar Smith who is the first returning starting QB for the Bulldogs since 2010. Couple this with the fact that LTU is rated as the 10th most experienced team this year while USA comes in at 93rd, I look for LTU to make a statement on the road where historically they have been downright abysmal in openers.

When all is said and done, I expect something like a 35-17 type of game as USA won't be able to keep pace with the Bulldogs as long as LTU holds on to the ball and doesn't have a bunch of silly turnovers (a big if with Smith under center, but I am counting on his experience leading to better play and less mistakes this year).

Give me the Bulldogs minus the 9.5 at 120 as my first play of the 2018 season.
 
Love LT as well. Offensive line starts is one of the key handicapping stats I use in the first couple of weeks of the season, and here we see a huge disparity of 97-23. LT definitely makes my week 1 card.
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Love LT as well. Offensive line starts is one of the key handicapping stats I use in the first couple of weeks of the season, and here we see a huge disparity of 97-23. LT definitely makes my week 1 card.
Click to expand...


Great minds think alike JDF as that is something I focus on as well, especially early on in the season. As you guys know, I love finding those under the radar gems that don't get many mentions, so hopefully this one starts the season off right. Hope you have a profitable season this year my man.
 
carolinablue said:
Great minds think alike JDF as that is something I focus on as well, especially early on in the season. As you guys know, I love finding those under the radar gems that don't get many mentions, so hopefully this one starts the season off right. Hope you have a profitable season this year my man.
Click to expand...

South Alabama is a local team for me. Just drove past there this afternoon.

Not only is LT the better team here, they are far more experienced. Would be shocked if they didn't win this by DD.
 
Will add some thoughts on these in my thread after the weekend, but wanted to get these posted while I have a minute,as I just played both at BM via mobile.

UNC +8 120
WVU -9.5 110
 
KJ said:
gogogo

I've no clue what to make of either UNC or Cal this year
Click to expand...

I see this one as pretty much a toss up as the suspensions aren't as bad as they could have been given the staggered sentence where it matters, so feel there is solid value in getting more than a TD as Elliott is a solid game manager who won't do anything spectacular, but he also won't give the ball away or make bad decisions. I see this one as a 3-6 point game either way and if I wasn't so prudent with my money, I would probably take some UNC ML action as well (we are 0-12 vs P5 to start the season, since 1997), but I am happy with the points as I think this line hits 6 by game time.
 
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RetroVK said:
Take on UNC with all the suspensions?
Click to expand...

The biggest ones are the 2 at the DE position (Carney and Fox), but neither of those suspensions will be served vs Cal so not as big a hit as it may seem on the surface. Based on everything I have read and heard, the QB battle was a coinflip, so Chazz's suspension isn't as bad as it may appear and may actually help things a bit as it will be nice to have a starter named well in advance and not have to worry about all the flip flopping 2 QB gimmicks as we have seen in year's past.
 
Good read on Elliott from 247 sports

CHAPEL Hill, N.C. --- Nathan Elliott has been working toward this moment since he first picked up a football. On Sept. 1 at 1 p.m. local time in Berkley, Calif., the junior will step out on the Memorial Stadium field as the Week 1 starting quarterback for the North Carolina Tar Heels.
It has been a long journey for Elliott. He arrived at UNC as a baby-faced freshman with little expectations. He was the No. 28 dual-threat quarterback in the 2015 class, the No. 134 player in the state of Texas, and the No. 1082 overall prospect, according to the 247Sports Composite. He redshirted his freshman season, UNC's 11-3 year. He was Mitch Trubisky's back-up in 2016, completing 8-of-9 passes for 55 yards. Heading into the 2017 season, Elliott was the third-string quarterback behind grad transfer Brandon Harris and redshirt freshman Chazz Surratt.

Elliott didn't get a real chance until the Miami game, UNC's ninth game of the season. Forced into action due to an injury to Surratt, Elliott got his first taste of live action in a competitive game. He completed 16-of-39 passes for one touchdown and three interceptions. It wasn't the cleanest performance, but he brought something that the other quarterbacks didn't --- leadership and grit that almost willed the Tar Heels to victory. UNC lost, 24-19, but showed fight and had a chance to beat the ranked Hurricanes. Elliott started the next three games to finish the 2017 season 75-for-146 (51.4 percent) with 10 touchdowns and five interceptions. UNC was 2-1 in games Elliott started. Now, in 2018, Elliott is North Carolina's clear starter heading into the season opener. "Not much has changed," Elliott said on Tuesday after UNC's 10th practice of the preseason. "I come out to practice to be the best I can be. The best version of Nathan Elliott that I can be. I also come out here to push my teammates to be the best they can be, because, ultimately, that is what matters. We want to win games and we've got to do that as a team."

There will be a new pressure on Elliott. He is no longer the back-up quarterback coming in for an injured teammate that fans and coaches hope can get the job done and manage the game. There are now expectations and demands. He will be tasked with leading an offense -- with a plethora of talented skill players -- that is looking to get back on track, making the disaster of 2017's 3-9 season a blip, rather than the norm. This is Elliott's fourth training camp. His fourth year in UNC's system. He adds that depth of knowledge to the experience he gained last year to close out the season. He is more confident, more relaxed, and more prepared. That was evident in how he approached last Saturday's scrimmage. "I felt really good. I felt confident," Elliott said. "It felt good to be out there in a game-like situation because it is always different when it is a game time. It was a lot of fun."

Elliott said that the reps between the quarterbacks in the scrimmage were split pretty evenly "to get everyone a chance."
The success of Elliott in 2018 will depend on how he prepares, adapts, and performs, but also how the offensive line protects him and establishes the running game. "(The offensive line) is finally coming together. That is always the last part of the offense to come together," Elliott said. "We are working as a unit. The protection is great, the run game is great." That protection will give Elliott the time to hit the numerous options he has at wide receiver. It is a young group with a few established veterans and an increasing amount of preseason hype. There is Anthony Ratliff-Williams and Thomas Jackson and then sophomores Beau Corrales and Dazz Newsome and freshmen Dyami Brown and Antoine Green.

"They are both very athletic. Both Dyami and Antoine are blazing fast," Elliott said about the freshman duo. "They are going to get down the field and make a play. They have great hands and run great routes. I am really excited and happy to see how far they have come since they have been here. Dyami in the spring and Antoine in the summer, he really picked the playbook up faster than I have seen anyone pick it up. It is really good to see."

UNC and Elliott will get a test right out of the gate with Cal, a team that defeated the Tar Heels, 35-30, last season. It will be a big moment for the quarterback, a moment he has thought about for a long time. "I am very excited. I can't wait," Elliott said. "I have been waiting for this moment my whole life. I have been preparing for this moment my whole life. It is finally here, so I have to make the most of it."
 
Man, glad I didn't witness that Duquesne debacle last night as I just saw the final score so can pretty much imagine that the play never really had a chance. That play will fall under the Jeopardy category called "I'll take how to best blow BM free play money for 200 Alex"
 
Adding 3 small scale ML plays for only 50 bucks each, but with all above +300, so that 1-2 = a little profit

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
+306
Risking: $50.00 To win: $153.00

NORTHERN ILLINOIS
+306
Risking: $50.00 To win: $153.00

HAWAII
+361
Risking: $50.00 To win: $180.50
 
I saw that Hawa11 ML play and thought you hit it. But then I realized it was not the week zero game vs Colorado st.
And I did watch most of that mismatch between UMass and Duquesne. Sorry to say you didn’t get a good number , either.

On the positive side, I’ve looked at all your ats games , and like your selections a lot. I’ll be riding with you on all four sides.
I haven’t gotten to money lines yet. Good luck and thanks for your thread
 
bull said:
I saw that Hawa11 ML play and thought you hit it. But then I realized it was not the week zero game vs Colorado st.
And I did watch most of that mismatch between UMass and Duquesne. Sorry to say you didn’t get a good number , either.

On the positive side, I’ve looked at all your ats games , and like your selections a lot. I’ll be riding with you on all four sides.
I haven’t gotten to money lines yet. Good luck and thanks for your thread
Click to expand...

Yeah, the Duquesne play was a waste of some of the BM free play cash, so no harm no foul but still never fun to not really have a chance on a play but at least I didn't see a minute of it haha. I typically play big favs in week 1 but the numbers this year are just too high even for my tastes as most of the huge favs have at least one unknown variable that has scared me off of laying big points. With all that said, they will all probably win 62-7 of course. Going to focus on team totals rather than game totals so I don't have to worry about bad teams helping me out as that killed me last year with totals. Will see how it goes this year and as always best of luck to you too man!

CB
 
Looking for you guys to give some input on this one...

I just received this email from BOL a few minutes ago. I went to my account and there is $75 now listed in the free play balance. Haven't used BOL since last cfb season, so while it is only $75, it's still free money, so curious to know what you guys would do with it as I have between now and Saturday or else it goes away. Again, I know it's only $75 bucks, but who knows, maybe I get hot and turn this into millions over the long haul, you never know! FYI, the rollover is 3x which honestly isn't bad, so let me know what you guys would do in terms of strategy to build this $75 slowly and surely into millions haha. One other note...they won't allow ML plays as that was the first thing I tried!

Email below...

It’s been a while since you’ve logged into your BetOnline account.

We wanted to make sure you didn’t miss kickoff so we put a $75 Free Play in your account for Week 1 of the NCAA Football Season.

It was a busy summer prepping for our biggest football season ever. We’ve made plenty of behind-the-scenes improvements to our website and just launched our first-ever $25,000 NFL Survivor Contest.

Hurry though, your Free Play expires Saturday night and any unused funds will be removed from your account. Log in here and place your bets now.

Enjoy the games,

The BetOnline Team
 
RetroVK said:
by end of day saturday? If so, I would just add it on to your favorite bet of the week
Click to expand...

Yeah, if I don’t make a play with it before midnight Saturday it will be removed from my account.

Probably overthinking it too much but it’s fun nonetheless.
 
enjoy your write ups CB, best on all the plays, with you on UNC and La Tech plus 2/3 of the ML plays
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah, if I don’t make a play with it before midnight Saturday it will be removed from my account.

Probably overthinking it too much but it’s fun nonetheless.
Click to expand...

Thinking about using the BOL free $75.00 on tonight's card by splitting it up into 3 plays of $25.00 each. So...give me what 3 you guys would play from tonight's card.


07:00 PM 133 Central Florida -23½ -115 o Ov 71½ -105 o
134 Connecticut +23½ -105 o Un 71½ -115 o


07:00 PM 137 New Mexico State +21 +100 o +825 o Ov 46½ -125 o
138 Minnesota -21 -120 o -1200 o Un 46½ +105 o

08:00 PM 135 Northwestern +1 +100 o +105 o Ov 53 -111 o
136 Purdue -1 -120 o -125 o Un 53 -109 o

08:00 PM 139 Wake Forest -6 -115 o -240 o Ov 57 -115 o
140 Tulane +6 -105 o +200 o Un 57 -105 o
 
Finally the super under the radar games are hitting the board at BM....

Ball State -14 110

Riley Neal and James Gilbert both healthy and looking for redemption
 
Last edited:
carolinablue said:
Channeling Andy Williams..."It's the most wonderful time of the year"....

With all due respect to SummerSlam, opening weekend of the college football season is without a doubt the biggest party of the summer and I can't wait! Having a bash at the house on Saturday September 1st to usher in the first full weekend of college football games, and I have to say that it is quite a joy to have a woman in my life who appreciates the art and skill of sports investment and who is genuinely looking forward to the start of the season almost as much as I am. Yes boys, she is a keeper!

I will be focusing mainly on team totals in Week 1, so my plays won't get locked in until those hit the board. I spoke with BM yesterday and they told me they are trying to get team totals up 48 hours before gametime, but may end up posting them sometime between 24-48 hours prior to kickoff, but definitely shooting for prior to gameday which is what most sites end up doing, but time will tell. They also said they will be taking them off the board 15 minutes before kickoff this year.

Wishing everyone the best this season and may we all be pulling a Samoa Joe and asking "Who's Your Daddy?", just like the Samoan Submission Machine did to AJ Styles at SummerSlam. Yes, the wrestling references will be prevalent throughout the season, so "whether you like it, or don't like it, learn to live with it, because it's the best thing going today WOOOOOO!"

Week 1 Plays - All plays to win 1 Unit at BM
  • Duquesne +21 110
  • UNC +8 120
  • WVU -9.5 110
  • LTU -9.5 120
  • ODU -6.5 115
  • Navy vs Hawaii Over 62.5 110
  • Ball State -14 110

Small ML Dog Plays (only risking $50.00 each)
  • FIU +306
  • NIU +306
  • Hawaii +361
Click to expand...
looks solid AF... I'm playing the +10 with N.Ill here
 
Had to use up that free $75 bucks that BOL put in my account, so here are the three $25 free plays I decided to go with at BOL. Expecting 63-7 finals across the board as I begin the journey of turning this free $75 into a grand LOL.. In case anyone is wondering, no, I would not play any of these on my normal card, just decided to have some fun with this that's all...

400097031 - 1Aug 30, 2018 02:45 PMSpread fp$25.00$20.83
Football - 232 UAB -37 -120 for Game

400097007 - 1Aug 30, 2018 02:45 PMSpread fp$25.00$21.74
Football - 234 Texas A&M -47½ -115 for Game

400096977 - 1Aug 30, 2018 02:44 PMSpread fp$25.00$22.73
Football - 309814 North Dakota -42 -110 for Game
 
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Tulane +8.5 120

Been patiently waiting for this to creep back up to initial levels as I like the extra cushion the 8.5 provides as I see this one being a back and forth affair. Just hoping Tulane doesn’t run out of gas late.
 
Thursday 2-0 +2.0 Units
Year to Date 2-1 +0.9 Units - to keep things simple, just going to count the BM free play loss as a loss and not going to count the very small BOL free play wins

Not a bad start to the year as Ball State game went about as good as I could have hoped with Neal and Gilbert stepping up after injury as expected and Tulane hanging around and doing just enough to stay within the number. Also hit 2 out of 3 BOL little free plays to keep my quest from $75 to a $1000 alive there haha. The next plays there will be sprinkling the profit across the 3 MLs above. Still waiting for the team totals to come out at BM as I still plan to plan a handful if they get released by noon tomorrow. Best of luck to everyone this weekend!
 
Man, I love it when an over hits in the first half and I am able to cash a play before halftime. Nice job BC!
 
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