Carolinablue Bowl Thread

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Decided to finally stop clogging up Troy and Fondy's threads with my plays and discussion, so moving forward all my plays will be posted here.

4-1 so far on the bowl season (lost Rice like everyone else and won USF, SJSU, BYU, and Utah - like everyone else). Got to the party late so didn't make a play on the TCU game like everyone else did, but hey can't complain so far.

12/24/06
HAWAII ML 262

Here is what I posted in Troy's thread...
I think this one will be a fun game to watch, but I am a little leery about laying 7 with the Warriors b/c I think they win but ASU could make it a battle due to their running game. If the Devils are able to control the pace of the game, this one could come down to the end and I don't want to have to worry about the 7 in the 4th quarter. I think Colt shines tonight but I am not sold on Hawaii's defense at all. ASU hasn't impressed on offense this year, but I think they put up some points tonight. Could be anywhere from 35-31 to 45-42 to who knows. Thought about taking ASU plus the 7 but I don't like to play on teams who lose their coach b/c who knows where their head will be. Based on comments I have read, some of the kids are a little pissed, so that could be good or bad. I am not a psychologist, so just give me the Hawaii ML so I can have a stress free night.

For anyone wondering, yes I am too lazy to start my own thread. Who needs a thread from me when I am only 4-1 anyway haha.

Hope you guys have a safe holiday.

Merry Christmas!<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
12/26/06
CMU -8 120 (only .12 difference in 1.5 points so I will juice it here)

I know MTSU is a popular play on the board, and I hate going against a lot of the guys who I respect and who also have been on fire so far this bowl season, but gotta go with my gut in this one, even if it is on the opposite side of most.

I usually don't like to play on teams dealing with coaches leaving, but CMU is a completely different scenario, because Jeff Quinn was Brian Kelly's right hand man for 18 years, and Quinn has extra motivation in this one because this is in effect his audition for the full time coaching job. He isn't some lame duck coach keeping the seat warm, he has a chance to win this job, so I expect him to have his guys ready on Tuesday at Ford Field. He has already stated that he isn't going to change anything that CMU has been doing, besides stepping up the intensity both on and off the field, and that should bode well for the cover as I expect CMU to come out fired up as they really love Quinn and want him to be the next head coach. Remember that he was the Offensive Coordinator, the Associated Head Coach, and the OL Coach, so the guys are familiar with his schemes and won't need to worry about learning anything new for this one. I do expect him to throw in a wrinkle or two though to show why he deserves this job. Being a long time assistant, possibly one win away from a head coaching job, I expect him to be focused on winning this one handily to show that there is no drop off from Kelly to him.

CMU has set a ticket sales record by the way, as they have already sold about 16,000 tickets for this one, as the faithful from Mt Pleasant will be out in full force for this one, so this will be in essence a home game for the Chips. MTSU has made a lot of comments about just being happy to be here and just being blown away by everything they are experiencing, while CMU is all business in this one. I expect them to put on a show for the "home crowd" as MTSU just doesn't have the guns to keep up with the Chips in this one.
 
Thanks bro, you too. Hope you are ready for your 2nd loss of the season as MTSU is gonna get their ass handed to em haha.
 
Here are some of my early leans on upcoming bowl games and the lines I would be looking to get. Haven't hit submit on any of these, just leans...

FSU/UCLA UNDER 40.5 (juice is shooting up on this so who knows)
RUTGERS -7 (wouldn't do 7.5)
S. CAR -5.5 (hope it keeps dropping, would love 4 haha)
TEXAS TECH -6.5
A&M +4.5 (missed 5.5 when it was out earlier)
OSU -2.5 (would sell 1/2 here since 2 doesn't make a diff to me)
 
You know this isn't the college basketball forum right? LOL... Lets get this Hawaii game. I just don't know if I have the balls to take the ML.... Think I'll suck it up and hope for the cover.
 
carolinablue said:
Here are some of my early leans on upcoming bowl games and the lines I would be looking to get. Haven't hit submit on any of these, just leans...

FSU/UCLA UNDER 40.5 (juice is shooting up on this so who knows)
RUTGERS -7 (wouldn't do 7.5)
S. CAR -5.5 (hope it keeps dropping, would love 4 haha)
TEXAS TECH -6.5
A&M +4.5 (missed 5.5 when it was out earlier)
OSU -2.5 (would sell 1/2 here since 2 doesn't make a diff to me)
Click to expand...

GL to us 2nite w/ Hawaii..

Got most of the same upcoming leans as you (RU,SC,TT,A&M)
 
Screw it, I decided to take HAWAII -6.5 124 as well. What fun is it having them just on the ML haha. I wouldn't be a tried and true degenerate if I actually stuck to what I said I was going to play now would I?

HAWAII ML 2.62 to win 1
HAWAII -6.5 1.24 to win 1
 
Updated leans...

FSU/UCLA U40 105
OSU -2.5 +100
RUT -7 118
A&M +4.5 110
S.Car -5.5 105
TxTech -6.5 105
Mich ML +103
OU -7 107
LOU -9.5 113
WMU +8.5 117
OSU -7 114
 
HAWAII ML 2.62 to WIN 1 - WINNER
HAWAII -6.5 1.24 to WIN 1 - WINNER

Nothing like cashing for 4 figures 10 mins before midnight on Christmas Eve.

JUNE JONES IS OFFICIALLY MY HERO.
 
Quick question for you guys...Just saw the CMU line drop all the way down to 8 105, so wondering if I should just wipe out my play by taking MTSU and just losing a little juice or should I stick with my CMU play even though the line has gone down a full 1.5 in the last few hours? Just wondering what you guys make of the line drop. I hate buying out my plays, but don't wanna be stubborn either. Thoughts?
 
No clue with CMU CB. It's interesting what the line is doing though. Not sure of the reasoning. Nice job with Hawaii tonight. I didn't realize you had added another play on the spread. I was sitting there after ASU got their last TD and was like "why didn't I have the balls to take the ML, I wouldn't be sweating it out right now."

I'll look around for injuries and that, I just don't know what it could be though.
 
It's SO HARD to determine line moves. Keep your original wager. Times like these, I wish I still had connections with running my old book. Local books are great ways to determine square money and sharp money. The reason: local books ALWAYS win. And I don't use "always" very much in my vocab!
 
Thanks for the feedback Fondy and Believe, I think I am just gonna stick with CMU and ride it out. I would rather go down in flames with my original pick if it happens, rather than try to get analytical with the line moves and end up outthinking myself. Appreciate the posts!
 
Fondy - Yeah, I was really glad I added the line play because 2 units is always better than 1. Gotta admit I was sweating like crazy when ASU cut it to 3, but now of course, I am all smiles this puts a nice cap on week 1 back in the saddle. Bad thing is the game got me wired from yelling at the tv during the 2H, so now I can't sleep haha.
 
Updated Leans...

Still liking Okla State and would sell 1/2 to get it to 2.5 +100 rather than take the current 2 105. Looking for some feedback on the other side here.

Really liking Rutgers, especially now that the line is down to 7. Just don't think KSU will be able to keep up with the Knights in this one.

Don't like A&M as much as I did before, so they are now iffy for me.

Still like S Car but a little concerned that the Cougs might burn that D for a few big plays b/c SC likes to take chances and that might leave em exposed. Any thoughts on this one guys?

Really liking Texas Tech. Minny hasn't done much against anyone who is at least halfway decent, so I look for Tech to put up 40+ in this one. Again, looking for other side thoughts.

Also now like Maryland after doing some more digging. I think it will be close but since the line is basically a pk, I think Maryland wins a nailbiter as the Maryland D should get a couple turnovers leading to short fields in this one.

Let me know what I am missing guys, thanks.
 
The FSU/UCLA total is now down to 39 and 39.5 so I will probably lay off of it now and hope for lots of points so I don't end up regretting laying off the play haha.

All of my Jan 1 and beyond leans are still the same.
 
Updated Record 6-1...Actually glad there are no games today (Christmas), as I need the break to recuperate from the stress from the Hawaii game haha. Have a great Christmas you guys, see you later this week as there is still a lot more money to be made over the next 2 weeks!
 
Watch the MTSU Game!

Those guys are sky high for their 1st Bowl game ever. It's a scrappy conference.

I like those scrappy Houston Cougars as well.....

Any thoughts on Tennessee or LSU?
 
Johnny - I hear what you are saying, but I also think that they could end up like Rice who seemed to be almost starstruck in the 1H since that was their first bowl game in forever, while Troy had been 2 of the last 3 years. A lot of times teams almost just seem happy to be there and that sometimes means lackluster performances since no one expected them to be there anyway. CMU has been a covering machine both as a fave and dog, so I will take my chances here, similar to Hawaii last night. If it ain't broke don't fix it type of philosophy. Am a little nervous that a lot of the guys on here that I respect are on MTSU, but that's cool, as it just makes it more fun haha.
 
Johnny - I really like LSU in this spot, but it makes me a little nervous that absolutely no one is giving ND a chance and most are predicting a shutout even. Those are the types of situations that ND loves to play into, so a part of me wonders if they don't end up coming out and beating LSU SU in this one. May just stay away b/c LSU almost seems too easy at anything less than 2 TDs.

Houston is a tricky one b/c with Kolb under center they are never out of any ballgame but SC should be able to win by at least a score, as Houston just doesn't matchup well with em in my opinion. Again, not as excited about my early lean on SC as I originally was, so not sure what I will do here. Would have liked Houston at 7+ but with the line down under a score, lean more towards SC still.

I like Tenn, but would love it at a FG, but it won't get there unfortunately. May still end up taking them though b/c I don't think PSU will hang in this one at all.

Good post, thanks!
 
Fondy - I pressed my luck with the Hawaii play as my money management went out the window on that one and I got lucky to be honest as I probably shouldn't have had so much cash on the line on that game. The 2.62 to win 1 was kinda stupid on my part, so just glad I made out ok. Have no problem admitting when I screw up and get bailed out haha.
 
CMU -8 vs MTSU - More info in addition to what I have already posted...

I think MTSU is overmatched in this one, both in the trenches and in the specialty positions. I look for the Chips to put on a nice show for the almost 20,000 fans making the trip down from Mt Pleasant. This will be a home game for them and I think MTSU will be somewhat overwhelmed from the get go, and will fall into a happy to just be here mentality. See below for some quotes on the game from both coaches that support some of my thoughts.

CMU NOTES and QUOTES
...Quinn, however, has spent most of his career standing next to Kelly. Quinn coached for 15 years as an assistant with Kelly at Grand Valley State University. When Kelly came to CMU, so did Quinn.
When CMU takes the field Tuesday, so will Quinn, just with a few more hats. Quinn is the offensive coordinator, offensive line coach and interim head coach for the game.
"What you've seen CMU do all season long is what you'll see in the Motor City Bowl," Quinn said. "The team has an identity. They players know what they're all about. You're going to see four tough, aggressive quarters of football.
"We're going to push the envelope, try to make big plays on defense, create turnovers ... then on offense we're going to be aggressive, too, taking advantage of the turnovers. Nothing is going to change because of the coaching or because of the bowl game."

...The scene-stealer for the Blue Raiders, however, is defensive back and kick returner Damon Nickson, who was named to several all-American teams, including SI.com and Scout.com.
Nickson returned 19 kickoffs for 569 yards for two touchdowns and an average of 29.94 yards per return. As a defensive back, Nickson had 56 tackles and five interceptions.
"We're going to do everything we can to take him out of the game, not to let him beat us," Quinn said. "Guys like him, playmakers, are guys that can beat you. Our strategy has always been not to let guys like that beat you. You do whatever you have to do."

MTSU NOTES AND QUOTES

"Going to the Motor City Bowl is a great reward for everything this team, especially the seniors, have gone through," Stockstill said. "It's been a lot of hard work to get to this point. Everybody here, from the players to the community to the university, is excited to get to play in a bowl game."

"The one thing that caught our attention was how big their offensive line is," Stockstill said. "They're a lot bigger than what we're used to seeing, both on the offensive and defensive lines.

"You've got the big lines, then you've got a quarterback (Dan LeFevour) who's having a great year, a very accurate year. Plus, he's surrounded by big-play receivers and a solid running game that's the best we've seen outside of Adrian Peterson at Oklahoma."
 
:cheers: I am playing CMU tomorrow. I gave MTSU an extra look because I thought maybe a dog covers but I have changed my mind
 
CMU = WINNER

7-1 BOWL RECORD TO DATE

Glad I was able to help at least a few of you guys make some cash tonight with the CMU play and discussion thread back on 12/24. Appreciate the great back and forth we had about the game and nice to see so many guys end up on the right side tonight. Congrats to everyone for a job well done tonight.

Troy - I expect my commission in the mail tomorrow since I talked you out of that MTSU play you were going to make haha.

See you guys tomorrow night.
 
Triple J - Actually I am gonna pass on tomorrow's game. Discipline is key for me and I don't see an edge either way. I liked the under before the line dropped so much, but now I don't even like that, so I won't be playing anything tomorrow except for baskets. Best of luck whatever you decide!
 
:cheers: Nice hit tonight, the thread def help clear things up..

I will be passing as well on tomorrows game..
 
No prob Green, glad I could help out.

Best of luck to everyone on Wed's game. I am gonna sit that one out b/c I don't see an edge either way.
 
:cheers: Texas Tech..

Care to share your feelings on RU.. I am familiar with them, native of NJ, but not real familiar with KSU..

I know KSU starts a frosh qb and RU is good at pressuring the qb and that is what I liked in this game..
 
Green - Will try to do a writeup as soon as possible. Working on the Thursday cbb card right now, so not sure if I will be able to get my thoughts down on Rutgers before the end of the night since I have to go into work tomorrow unfortunately. Will do what I can.
 
Game is not until 8, no worries... Some of us are on break from school and don't have real jobs :smiley_acbe:
 
I like Rutgers today for a number of reasons. First off, I don't buy the whole "they have no incentive in this one" argument, because they are looking for their first postseason victory in the program's 137 years, so if that isn't incentive, I don't know what is. Here is a quote from Rutgers star running back Ray Rice..."We have this bowl game and we're trying to accomplish what our school has never accomplished. That's big motivation."

Secondly, Rutgers ranked in the Top 10 in defensive scoring, total yards, and passing defense, so I look for the KSU QB (whoever it may be) to have some big time trouble tonight as they have already combined for 17 INTs this year and only 9 TDs. KSU doesn't have a great running game either, as they didn't have a back gain over 600 yds this year. They are only 69th against the run, so I look for Rice and Leonard to both have big games tonight down in Houston. KSU also doesn't play well away from home as they are only 3-11 ATS the L14 away from Manhattan and they have lost 3 straight bowl games ATS. I expect this line to hit at least 8 105 by game time so I am glad I got the 7 at not a bad price at all. Rutgers has something to prove tonight and I think they get it done in a big way against a medicore at best KSU team.

RUTGERS -7
 
TEXAS TECH -6.5 105

The reason I like Texas Tech -6.5 is pretty simple. Minny is the #116th ranked pass defense in the country, allowing 254 passing yards a game. They are 2-5 ATS away from the Metrodome. They are ranked 95th against the run (Remember Woods did run for about 800 this year for Tech so they are not entirely one dimensional, although they are pretty close). Texas Tech couldn't win the big games this year, but they feasted on average competition who also couldn't stop the pass, like ISU and Baylor.

I think this line ends up around 8 105 or so by kickoff (similar to the Rutgers line), so again glad I got 6.5 at a cheap price. I would not be surprised to see Tech throw for 500+ and for Filani to get about 200 of those yards. The biggest watchout is Tech's suspect defense, as I expect them to allow some points to Minny, ok, a lot of points to Minny, but Tech is as good as they come, when a game turns into a shootout, so I look for the Raiders to win this game in what should be a fun one to watch.
 
Fondy - Thanks. Got lucky last night with baskets too, finishing up 3-0 in the late games, after the EIU and Hall debacles.

8-1 BOWL RECORD

Friday Plays
Texas Tech -6.5 105 (played earlier as noted in previous post)

Gonna wait on the Oregon State like as I like them but want to see if it hits 3 this morning as it is currently at 3.5 102. Also looking at the over in Texas Tech as I see it being a 45-30 type of game, but I suck with totals this season (0-1 haha) so not sure if I should play it or not.
 
Friday leans

These are the plays I am debating as we speak...

Oregon State (if the line gets to 3 for a decent price I will jump on it b/c now is the time for me to be smart in terms of not being greedy)

S. Carolina (4 may be worth the buy at only 124, not sure yet b/c many guys I respect are all over Houston..hmm...)

Texas Tech/Minny Over 65 (Tech should get 40 and Minny should get at least 25 one would think)

Need some feedback here. Which of these three should I scratch if any?

No play on Maryland even though my lean is the Terps.
No play on Clemson/Kentucky b/c that one is a who knows for me.
 
CB - If you're interested in a total on the TT/Minny game, take a look at the Texas Tech team total if you're unsure of what Minnesota will do. It's at 36.5, but I definately see them putting up 40+
 
Thanks bro, will check it out now on Pinny to see where it is sitting now....

Tech Over 36.5 107...not bad...Wondering if I should go this route or the combined total over 65 to protect against a 34-31 or 35-30 type of game. Never played a team total in my life believe it or not, so not sure which one is the better play.
 
carolinablue said:
Thanks bro, will check it out now on Pinny to see where it is sitting now....

Tech Over 36.5 107...not bad...Wondering if I should go this route or the combined total over 65 to protect against a 34-31 or 35-30 type of game. Never played a team total in my life believe it or not, so not sure which one is the better play.
Click to expand...

I've only played about 3 or 4 team totals, so I'm not by chance an expert with them. I think it's a bit easier for me to cap a team total though as it takes about half the game out of the equation (your teams defense and opponents offense). You still need to look at that for field position and that, but in a game like today not knowing if Minny's offense will show up, I feel more comfy. If you aren't sure if you like the game total or team total, split them up about put half a unit on both as a type of insurance.
 
FRIDAY CONFIRMED PLAYS

TEXAS TECH -6.5 105
TEXAS TECH TEAM TOTAL O36.5 111 (waited too long so missed 107)
TEXAS TECH/MINNY TOTAL O64.5 108 (saved 1/2 by waiting here)

Decided to lay off the other games so I can focus solely on this one tonight.
 
Good line on the side. On the team total as well. Much easier to predict what Tech will do to a terrible secondary. Great start Blue. Keep it up!
 
Glad I laid off that Oregon State game this afternoon, but gonna need a big time miracle to make any kind of money with the 3 Tech plays at this point. Hoping for at least the total over to hit so I can salvage a 1-2 at this point. Anything can happen though, so maybe Tech can get their stuff together and make this into one of the greatest comebacks of all time haha.
 
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