Carolina Blue Week 8 Plays

carolinablue

College Football Guru
I have to admit that I love how my Heels have stepped up and won against both Miami and FSU this year for the first time in school history, but man I am getting tired of these ugly weeks when it comes to my plays as I have just not been in stride at all so far this season. Hoping I get the ship righted this week and go on a crazy run like I did the second half of the season last year, but at this rate, I will just be happy being on the right side of the ledger. One change I am making this week is to not overthink things as I feel like I have almost been reading too much "other information" instead of trusting my gut and as a result I have talked myself out of plays I normally would have made, so moving forward I am just going with my gut when the lines come out and let the chips fall where they may for better or worse...

Week 7 Recap
6-7 -3.42 units

Year to Date
40-35 -2.206 units
 
Week 8 Plays Locked and Loaded at BOL
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 351 Massachusetts +21 -120 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 378 Washington U -30 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 372 Navy +1 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 368 Michigan -32½ -120 for GAME

Mobile - FOOTBALL - 361 Ohio -3 -110 for GAME
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 337 NC State +22 -110 for GAME
Football - 395 Georgia Southern -13 -115 for Game
Football - 343 Louisiana Tech -13½ -110 for Game
Football - 356 New Mexico -12½ -110 for Game
Football - 328 Northwestern -128 for Game
Football - 315 North Texas/Army over 47½ -120 buying ½ for Game


Week 8 Play at 5D
10/22/16 3:00pm College Football 342 Ball State -130* vs Akron
 
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Waiting on line moves on 2-3 more plays and then I will be all done for this week.

Missed Michigan at 30 and at 30.5 as I couldn't submit fast enough but still feel good up to around 35 on that one.
Got NC State early as I liked that one at anything over 17.5
Washington I like up to around 35
UMass is more of a fade of SC offense as I tried to hit it at 22.5 and 22 but missed both. Still feel good at anything above 18 here.
Navy I guessed wrong on as it looks like it is going to get over 3 but I actually have them winning SU
Ohio I like up to 6.5 even on the road
 
Football - 395 Georgia Southern -13 -115 for Game

Like this one at anything under 17 but figure the price won't get better than the 13 at 115 so not going to wait for it to cross 2 TDs
 
Marshall has burned me time and again this year as I keep thinking they are going to snap out of it against one of these bottom feeders but they kill me every time. So...seeing the line at home at only -14 vs the 49ers is close to sucking me in yet again. Haven't played it yet but man it's tempting as I though this one would never get under 17.
 
Two other small favs at home also are right there on the borderline but haven't played yet....

Northwestern who has owned Indiana in this series in recent memory and ball state who has found a solid running game. Not quite onboard yet but wanted to provide look at others that are close to being plays...
 
The senior wide receiver has played his last game as a Tar Heel.

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. -- North Carolina wide receiver Mack Hollins will miss the remainder of the 2016 season after breaking his collarbone (right clavicle) in Saturday's win over Miami, according to a source familiar with the situation.
Hollins suffered the injury on his lone reception - a 49-yard pass play that set up UNC's second touchdown - near the end of the second quarter. He had surgery on Sunday and the recovery time following surgery is expected to be 4-6 months.
 
nice grab on michigan for sure. illinois will have a real hard time getting to double digits.

Thanks man, totally agree. Figure worst case would be something like 45-10 or 49-14 at the final whistle so like getting under the 35 number just in case the Illini pick up a garbage score late.
 
Thoughts on Heels? Looks like a dangerous spot for them.

Gonna type a few thoughts here on my phone while waiting for takeoff so apologies in advance if formatting doesn't come out right.

Would have loved to get it when it was available under 7 110 (was at 7 100) as anything under a TD is solid value IMO given the matchups, our level of confidence in conference road games and what's at stake. Given that I play based on variance however, even though I see them winning, I want to stay disciplined and keep to what has worked for me long term, so no play unless it gets back to 6.5.

UVA on the road used to be an albatross for us but once we cleared that mental hurdle it no longer was a mental thing IMO. I expect our offense to get back on track in this one as UVA is mediocre at best and now that we have the advantage again in the coastal race due to how the schedule strength plays out coupled with the fact that the others still have to play each other, so more losses to come for them, I don't see any letdown or situational spot in play here.

Best of luck this weekend.
 
Cal vs Oregon total 88.5 WOW....Not touching that one as I am horrible at totals but can't remember the last time I saw a total that close to 90.
 
Wife and son both just headed out for the weekend, so figure what better place to stay out of trouble than to camp out here in the forum and post some thoughts about this weekend's action...

Why Ball State?

They have found their identity as a smash mouth punch you in the face win in the trenches team that will run the ball over and over like a boxer throwing body punches that don't seem like they are having an impact, but once those later rounds come about, that's when the effect is felt. James Gilbert is 4th in the country in rushing yards and probably #1 in terms of solid backs that people have never heard of. Akron really struggles against the run, so I would not be surprised to see Gilbert go for 150+ in this one as I expect him to get the ball at least 30 times on Saturday. While it can be argued that the talent he has faced defensively hasn't been top notch, you still can't deny that he is bringing it, as he has rushed for over 500 total yards and 7 TDs over the last 3 games, including a 264 yard rushing effort against hapless Buffalo last week as Ball State easily covered as a DD favorite.

Recent history is also on the side of the Cardinals, as they have won 3 straight against the Zips, so I like my chances at ML 130 only needing a SU victory by the home team against a defense that allows over 200 rushing yards a game.
 
Why Michigan?

First, I have to say that I didn't expect this line to get all the way up to 40 as I was irritated when I couldn't lock my play in at 30 or 30.5 as each time I went to confirm, I got shut down due to a line change. Looking at the line now, I have to say that I am happy about my 32.5 as I just don't see a scenario where Illinois gets more than 2 scores while Michigan should have no problem putting up at least the same number of points (48) that my Heels did, and keep in mind that UNC did it on the road in front of the first sellout crowd in recent memory for the Illini, while Michigan will have the benefit of being in Ann Arbor, not that location has mattered much in this series as Michigan has won 9 of the last 11 by an average margin of victory of around 3 TDs. I also would be lying if I said that the Harbaugh factor has no bearing on this play either, as I love backing teams whose coaches seem to be aware of the spread, public perception, margin of victory, etc. Whether any of that is actually true or not, who knows, but one can only go by the tangible evidence, so I like being on the side of this UM team that seems to take joy in not only stepping on the neck of inferior competition, but also not letting up until there is not a single breath left in the body of the victim...or when the final whistle blows, whichever comes first haha. 63, 51, 45, 49, 14, 78...no, those aren't the winning lotto numbers from last night, those are the amount of points the Wolverines have put on the board in their first 6 games. The 14 doesn't worry me at all because I have seen both Wisconsin and Illinois play and Illinois is no Wisconsin (candidate for understatement of the year maybe).
 
Why UMass?

Why exactly am I taking a team that is 1-6, is coming off a 28 point shellacking vs La Tech, and has lost to everyone on it's schedule except for FIU? Well, first of all, they are getting 21 points against one of the 10 worst offenses in the nation, as the Gamecocks have yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season, yet they are expected to cover a 3 TD spread? Second of all, UMass has been down this SEC road before, so there will be no awe when they walk onto the field at Williams Bryce Stadium Saturday, as they have already hung in there against the Gators (lost by 17) and MSU (lost by 12 after actually leading in the 2H). I haven't heard it confirmed yet, but apparently South Carolina will potentially go with freshman quarterback and first-time starter Jake Bentley as they look to turn things around after losing 3 straight games. More randomness...I like this quote I found from one of the UMass defensive starters..."Since he's a new quarterback, we're going to hit him," he said. "We have to hit him. If we hit him hard enough, he's going to be rattled for the whole game. Those first couple ones should have him rattled, because he's never been hit before. We want to keep our foot on the head of the snake and not take it off." Sure, it doesn't help that UMass RB is questionable at best for the game, but truth be told, if UMass is going to have a chance in this one, it is going to come through the air, as I expect them to throw the ball early and often as they just don't matchup well against SC in the trenches. As long as UMass can keep the mistakes and turnovers to a minimum, build some early confidence on offense, play a field possession game by not giving up the big play and making SC work for every score, I feel pretty good about UMass being in this one from start to finish.
 
From the Athens, Ohio Post -- Ohio vs Kent

The Bobcats (4-3, 2-1 MAC) will head up I-77 with question marks at the quarterback spot –– to play a team with even more question marks at quarterback.

Kent State, depending on the health of original starting quarterback Nick Holley, might be forced to start running back Myles Washington at quarterback. But don't tell that to Ohio's defense. It doesn't matter.

“You prepare for everything," Moore said. "We’re getting all these different looks, we’ve got a running back and a quarterback. Preparing for scramble looks, but they have a lot of formations. You never know what you’re gonna get until you come out on the first play.”

Holley won Mid-American Conference East Player of the Week in back-to-back weeks before his injury. But even with the uncertainty as to who will start at quarterback for the Golden Flashes, there won't be much of a change in the run-first style of offense.

“Gotta be disciplined," Tarell Basham, a defensive end, said. "Whole lot of hustle plays, whole lot of re-trace type of plays, scrambling to keep the quarterback in the pocket. Going to take a lot of mental discipline. You need discipline to beat an option team.”

For Basham and Moore, the job of shutting down the Kent State offense will fall almost solely on them and their position group's shoulders. The Kent State offense runs the ball 37.7 percent of the time.

But that job takes on even more importance when looking at Ohio's own offense.

With solid play, yet uncertainty as to whom will be taking the majority of the snaps at quarterback, the defense might be forced to carry the offense this weekend. And as Moore said time and time again, that just involves giving the offense the ball back.

“If you look at stats from games, whoever wins the turnover and field position battle usually wins the game," Moore said. "We’ve been winning all of the turnover margins lately, but we lost field position and turnovers this last game. When we win those, we win the game usually. It’s a very high percentage. We’ve just got to win those.”

A win would put the Bobcats on a fast track towards the MAC Championship Game, who would have then beaten every MAC East team they've played.

A loss? Well that's not even on the table.

“It’s a really big game, it’s a must-win in order to go to the MAC Championship and win the MAC East," Basham said. "It’s just something we’ve got to come out and execute and get done.”
 
Why NC State?

The Wolfpack have the 16th-best defense statistically and are downright stingy against opposing running games, allowing only 95.3 yards per game. Clemson managed just 3.0 yards per carry on 39 attempts last game. Opponents have averaged only three yards per carry against NC State this season. Only four teams in the country allow fewer rushing yards per game than NC State.

NC State running back Matthew Dayes is No. 3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference – behind only Heisman candidates Dalvin Cook and Lamar Jackson – in rushing, and he's averaging 112 yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry. He ran for 106 yards and a touchdown against Clemson and has failed to reach 100 yards just once this season.
 
Considering adding Army TT O33.5 as UNT has allowed 30 or more 4x's already this season and even though they had a week to prepare for the triple option, I am not sure they will be able to keep Army from getting in the end zone 5x's given how bad UNT is against the run. Eventually I see them wearing down and Army getting at least a few scores in the 2H as the game wears on. Thoughts?
 
Going back to the well on a total once again, so if I were you I would be all over the under LOL

Football - 315 North Texas/Army over 47½ -120 buying ½ for Game


I like the Army over 33 but also see NT getting at least 14 so instead of trying my luck at picking one or the other, just gonna play the odds and go with the game total hitting at least 48 as Army should good for at least 38 while NT should be able to get at least 17 especially given they will probably get pass happy once they fall behind.
 
First Saturday in forever that the house is empty, so will be around all day from noon to midnight discussing cfb so looking forward to being in the in-game and also answering any questions that pop up in the thread as it has definitely be a while since I have had a day like this where it will all be about watching the games with no other responsibilities on the plate for the day...can't wait!
 
All about preparation...here is what my TV viewing schedule will look like today...

Disclaimer: Do not try this at home unless your wife and son are gone for the weekend as I can't be repsonsible for anyone who tries this under any other circumstances!

Round 1 - 12 noon games

NC State at Louisville on Ch. 9 (State +22)
North Texas at Army on Ch. 221 (Over 47.5)
Indiana at Northwestern on Ch. 610 (NW ML)
UMass at SC on Ch. 611 (Mass +21)

non-TV games I will be keeping an eye on...
1pm - Ohio at Kent (Ohio -3)

Round 2 - 3pm/3:30pm games
UNC at UVA on Ch. 646 (no play, but deep personal interest of course)
Memphis at Navy on Ch. 221 (Navy +1)
Illinois at Michigan on Ch. 610 (Mich -32.5)

non-TV games I will be keeping an eye on...
3:30pm - Akron at Ball State (Ball St ML)

Round 3 - 6:30pm and Later Games
8pm - Georgia Southern at NMSU on Ch. 676 (GSU -13)
9pm - ULM at NM on Ch. 674 (NM -12.5)

non-TV games I will be keeping an eye on...
6:30pm - Oregon State at Washington (Wash -30)
7pm - La Tech at FIU (La Tech -13.5)
 
great job on TV scheduling.

Weather might hurt us with that Army total.

Best of luck, you did a nice job on those early numbers this week. Well done.
 
All about preparation...here is what my TV viewing schedule will look like today...

Disclaimer: Do not try this at home unless your wife and son are gone for the weekend as I can't be repsonsible for anyone who tries this under any other circumstances!

Round 1 - 12 noon games

NC State at Louisville on Ch. 9 (State +22)
North Texas at Army on Ch. 221 (Over 47.5)
Indiana at Northwestern on Ch. 610 (NW ML)
UMass at SC on Ch. 611 (Mass +21)

non-TV games I will be keeping an eye on...
1pm - Ohio at Kent (Ohio -3)

Round 2 - 3pm/3:30pm games
UNC at UVA on Ch. 646 (no play, but deep personal interest of course)
Memphis at Navy on Ch. 221 (Navy +1)
Illinois at Michigan on Ch. 610 (Mich -32.5)

non-TV games I will be keeping an eye on...
3:30pm - Akron at Ball State (Ball St ML)

Round 3 - 6:30pm and Later Games
8pm - Georgia Southern at NMSU on Ch. 676 (GSU -13)
9pm - ULM at NM on Ch. 674 (NM -12.5)

non-TV games I will be keeping an eye on...
6:30pm - Oregon State at Washington (Wash -30)
7pm - La Tech at FIU (La Tech -13.5)
Haha...I write out same kind of schedule for myself
 
great job on TV scheduling.

Weather might hurt us with that Army total.

Best of luck, you did a nice job on those early numbers this week. Well done.

Best of luck to you as well. Looks like the barometric pressure will be on the rise slightly throughout the day, so basing my total play on the rain staying light and eventually clearing out along with the wind as the high pressure moves in but guess I will see shortly if those meteorology classes at unc paid off or not!
 
Haha...I write out same kind of schedule for myself

Everyone asked yesterday why I didn't just plan a day at the sports bar and the above is a big part. I have a media room with projection screen upstairs (but no fridge or bar up there...I know I know) and my normal big screen downstairs where the food and drinks are so my plan is simple... (I have already ordered wings and nachos online for pick up 145pm, leaving during halftime of the noon games and returning early third quarter. All other accompaniments were purchased after work yesterday so all set there as my car won't leave the driveway after 2pm.

Must be getting old but the sports bar thing just bugs me now as I prefer my home every time when I have that choice (i.e. When wife is away for weekend and son is with his mom).

No worries about places piping in music instead of turning up sound, no having to deal with 20 tvs linked to one channel, no worries about overpriced drinks, no worries about mindless conversations through the place about everything other than sports. You get my drift. Yes may sound harsh, crazy or whatever but to me my plan today is about as ideal as it gets!

Plus I remove all guilt of excess by typing all this while working out at the y haha.

Best of luck today man!
 
Yeah, I can't get into the games/enjoy as much when I go out. I'll take staying home w/ food, drinks, live betting any day. Knock em dead today brother :cheers3:
 
8-4 on the day +3.45 units so can't complain

Updated Year to Date Record
48-39 +1.244 Units

Nice to be back on the right side of things but as we all know, this is a journey, so see you in Week 9!
 
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