carolinablue
College Football Guru
Had a decent start to week 1 going 10-4 but one week doesn't mean anything in the whole scheme of things, it's how you end up at season's end that matters. Playing it very conservative in week 2, by both limiting my plays and paying an arm and a leg in juice in most cases to get the lines I wanted. Last week had mainly -103 plays, but this week, I am bathing in juice, so no need to point that out haha...
IOWA -16.5 132
I like the balanced attack that Iowa poses, but I expect that they will use this game to shore up their rushing attack as the Orange gave up 250 yards against the Deacs last week in a game that definitely was not as close as the final score indicated, as Wake seemed to forget how to play whenever they crossed the Syracuse 35 yard line (and this is coming from a guy who won with the Orange). Syracuse still has absolutely no offense to speak of as inept doesn't even begin to describe their problems. Iowa is 9-1 ATS L10 when favored by >16 points and I look for them to pile it on early and often in this one. I don't see Syracuse scoring more than 10 to 14, which means Iowa only needs about 31 for the cover, and they may have that by the half as they can definitely be explosive at times. If they don't pile up at least 200 yards rushing and about 500 yards total offense in this one, I will be pretty surprised. Took it at 16.5 so I don't get screwed at 17.5 with a 27-10 or 31-14 backdoor fluke finish.
GEORGIA -2.5 125
Many on the board have already talked about the reasons for the Bulldogs here, so I won't ramble on about this one, because they did a much better job than I could ever do writing up this game. Many say the MSU defense is what caused the Cocks to flounder last week, but I am not buying it, as they looked out of sync many times during that game and it wasn't all due to the Bulldogs. Losing your starting QB can do that to a team on offense, so no shame in that, but just don't see how they are going to be able to contain the Georgia rushing game in this one. MSU has no offense, so last week didn't prove anything to me as far as the S.C. defense is concerned. Think it will be close at the start as adrenaline can work wonders up to a point, but usually the better team does prevail, so Georgia should win by at least 6 when all is said and done.
A&M -19.5 123
The Aggies turned the ball over 4 times vs the lowly Citadel, and that was really the only thing that kept that one from being a 50-3 type of game. Those problems are obviously going to be addressed this week so A&M should be able to put at least 40 on the board at home vs ULL. ULL isn't a slouch by any means as they have a strong rushing game, but A&M only has to win by 20, and at home that isn't asking too much, as A&M is really focused on having a balanced attack as evidenced by their 184 yards rushing and 200 yards passing vs the Citadel in the opener. This one won't be that easy, but ULL doesn't have the athletes to stop Mcgee and company in what should be another solid game by the Aggies as they build their confidence on both sides of the ball heading into conference play.
NIU -13 124
Ohio probably had one of the ugliest blowout wins of the last 10 years last week as their offense was atrocious vs Tenn Martin. If you actually check out the stats, Ohio only had 62 yds rushing (less than 2 ypc) and only 82 yds passing vs weak TN Martin. Ohio had a fumble recovery for a TD, a safety, 2 TDs, and 2 FGs, as twice inside the red zone, they couldn't punch it in vs the very overmatched TN Martin squad. Having to head into NIU, who is looking to bounceback after that horrible 1Q vs OSU will not be pretty, as NIU definitely is looking to take out their frustrations on the Bobcats, as NIU went from being a potential upset special to a running joke in the span of about 15 mins vs the Buckeyes. Ohio has lost 6 of their last 7 MAC games (Only win was vs Buffalo) by an average of 23 points and I look for more of the same this weekend as Wolfe should have no problem getting 200 in this one, even though you know Ohio will try to stack things up on the line...it won't matter.
LOUISVILLE -39.5 108
Temple will be lucky to score, and even if they do score, they won't score more than 7, so this is a play on whether Louisville can score 50 on a Temple defense that has no returning starters on the DL, only 3 returning starters period, that allowed 45 ppg last year, and that allowed 356 last week to the worst offensive team in college ball, Buffalo. I am banking on yes being the answer to that question because the x factor in this one is Temple's horrific kicking game. They have one of the worst punting games in football, if not the worst, which means lots of short fields for Brohm and company to work with, which means lots of TDs on the board. Couple that with the fact that Temple's coverage team is awful, and I wouldn't be surprised if Louisville runs one back in this game also. We all know the stats so won't bother with those. And yes I know Bush is out, but I believe Stripling and Smith will have something to prove because no one is talking about them at all, but they are some studs in the making in that backfield, so don't sleep on em on this one. At the end of the day, this one comes down to whether Louisville wants to make a statement in Bush's absence and I think they will want to. I am 0% concerned about the look ahead factor because that is the same argument many used last week in taking North Texas as Texas had the biggest look ahead factor imaginable in OSU and we all know how that NT +41 worked out for folks.
INDIANA -3 117
I know it is risky taking an unproven Hoosier team on the road against the high powered Ball State offense, but I am banking more on the Indiana defense and Ball State's lack thereof to win this one for me. We all know that Ball State can score but the difference between these two similar teams to me will come down to defense. Neither team returns much experience on the defensive side of the ball (only 4 starters each), but Indiana showed me something last week as they only gave up 72 rushing yards to WMU while Ball State showed me more of the same old same old as they allowed 226 rushing yards and 435 total yards to EMU. Indiana will be focused on improving their rushing attack this week as they didn't do a good job at running the ball at all vs Western, and Ball State is the perfect opponent for them to get their offense more balanced, as Ball State can't stop anyone on defense. The most intriguing matchup for me is James Hardy at 6'7 vs the Ball State secondary, who I don't think has a player taller than 6'1, with a couple of their corner guys being only 5'9. He may be double teamed, but that should open up the other side of the field, as well as the rushing game, so I look for Indiana to outlast Ball State in this one.
PS...yes I know there is probably too much chalk for you to even see my plays...yes, I know I am doomed because I am playing too many road favs, and favs in general, yes, I know I am insane for laying that many points with an unproven A&M team, yes, I know Louisville plays Miami next week, yes, I know Indiana is untested on the road, yes, I know I should have removed (insert play here) and replaced it with (insert play here). Okay, that should cover everything. Just having fun guys. Looking forward to hearing what the CTG guys think of the card as I think you guys are doing a solid job here with the site. Keep up the good work!
IOWA -16.5 132
I like the balanced attack that Iowa poses, but I expect that they will use this game to shore up their rushing attack as the Orange gave up 250 yards against the Deacs last week in a game that definitely was not as close as the final score indicated, as Wake seemed to forget how to play whenever they crossed the Syracuse 35 yard line (and this is coming from a guy who won with the Orange). Syracuse still has absolutely no offense to speak of as inept doesn't even begin to describe their problems. Iowa is 9-1 ATS L10 when favored by >16 points and I look for them to pile it on early and often in this one. I don't see Syracuse scoring more than 10 to 14, which means Iowa only needs about 31 for the cover, and they may have that by the half as they can definitely be explosive at times. If they don't pile up at least 200 yards rushing and about 500 yards total offense in this one, I will be pretty surprised. Took it at 16.5 so I don't get screwed at 17.5 with a 27-10 or 31-14 backdoor fluke finish.
GEORGIA -2.5 125
Many on the board have already talked about the reasons for the Bulldogs here, so I won't ramble on about this one, because they did a much better job than I could ever do writing up this game. Many say the MSU defense is what caused the Cocks to flounder last week, but I am not buying it, as they looked out of sync many times during that game and it wasn't all due to the Bulldogs. Losing your starting QB can do that to a team on offense, so no shame in that, but just don't see how they are going to be able to contain the Georgia rushing game in this one. MSU has no offense, so last week didn't prove anything to me as far as the S.C. defense is concerned. Think it will be close at the start as adrenaline can work wonders up to a point, but usually the better team does prevail, so Georgia should win by at least 6 when all is said and done.
A&M -19.5 123
The Aggies turned the ball over 4 times vs the lowly Citadel, and that was really the only thing that kept that one from being a 50-3 type of game. Those problems are obviously going to be addressed this week so A&M should be able to put at least 40 on the board at home vs ULL. ULL isn't a slouch by any means as they have a strong rushing game, but A&M only has to win by 20, and at home that isn't asking too much, as A&M is really focused on having a balanced attack as evidenced by their 184 yards rushing and 200 yards passing vs the Citadel in the opener. This one won't be that easy, but ULL doesn't have the athletes to stop Mcgee and company in what should be another solid game by the Aggies as they build their confidence on both sides of the ball heading into conference play.
NIU -13 124
Ohio probably had one of the ugliest blowout wins of the last 10 years last week as their offense was atrocious vs Tenn Martin. If you actually check out the stats, Ohio only had 62 yds rushing (less than 2 ypc) and only 82 yds passing vs weak TN Martin. Ohio had a fumble recovery for a TD, a safety, 2 TDs, and 2 FGs, as twice inside the red zone, they couldn't punch it in vs the very overmatched TN Martin squad. Having to head into NIU, who is looking to bounceback after that horrible 1Q vs OSU will not be pretty, as NIU definitely is looking to take out their frustrations on the Bobcats, as NIU went from being a potential upset special to a running joke in the span of about 15 mins vs the Buckeyes. Ohio has lost 6 of their last 7 MAC games (Only win was vs Buffalo) by an average of 23 points and I look for more of the same this weekend as Wolfe should have no problem getting 200 in this one, even though you know Ohio will try to stack things up on the line...it won't matter.
LOUISVILLE -39.5 108
Temple will be lucky to score, and even if they do score, they won't score more than 7, so this is a play on whether Louisville can score 50 on a Temple defense that has no returning starters on the DL, only 3 returning starters period, that allowed 45 ppg last year, and that allowed 356 last week to the worst offensive team in college ball, Buffalo. I am banking on yes being the answer to that question because the x factor in this one is Temple's horrific kicking game. They have one of the worst punting games in football, if not the worst, which means lots of short fields for Brohm and company to work with, which means lots of TDs on the board. Couple that with the fact that Temple's coverage team is awful, and I wouldn't be surprised if Louisville runs one back in this game also. We all know the stats so won't bother with those. And yes I know Bush is out, but I believe Stripling and Smith will have something to prove because no one is talking about them at all, but they are some studs in the making in that backfield, so don't sleep on em on this one. At the end of the day, this one comes down to whether Louisville wants to make a statement in Bush's absence and I think they will want to. I am 0% concerned about the look ahead factor because that is the same argument many used last week in taking North Texas as Texas had the biggest look ahead factor imaginable in OSU and we all know how that NT +41 worked out for folks.
INDIANA -3 117
I know it is risky taking an unproven Hoosier team on the road against the high powered Ball State offense, but I am banking more on the Indiana defense and Ball State's lack thereof to win this one for me. We all know that Ball State can score but the difference between these two similar teams to me will come down to defense. Neither team returns much experience on the defensive side of the ball (only 4 starters each), but Indiana showed me something last week as they only gave up 72 rushing yards to WMU while Ball State showed me more of the same old same old as they allowed 226 rushing yards and 435 total yards to EMU. Indiana will be focused on improving their rushing attack this week as they didn't do a good job at running the ball at all vs Western, and Ball State is the perfect opponent for them to get their offense more balanced, as Ball State can't stop anyone on defense. The most intriguing matchup for me is James Hardy at 6'7 vs the Ball State secondary, who I don't think has a player taller than 6'1, with a couple of their corner guys being only 5'9. He may be double teamed, but that should open up the other side of the field, as well as the rushing game, so I look for Indiana to outlast Ball State in this one.
PS...yes I know there is probably too much chalk for you to even see my plays...yes, I know I am doomed because I am playing too many road favs, and favs in general, yes, I know I am insane for laying that many points with an unproven A&M team, yes, I know Louisville plays Miami next week, yes, I know Indiana is untested on the road, yes, I know I should have removed (insert play here) and replaced it with (insert play here). Okay, that should cover everything. Just having fun guys. Looking forward to hearing what the CTG guys think of the card as I think you guys are doing a solid job here with the site. Keep up the good work!
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