Cardinals vs. Rams NFL Week 4 Picks and Odds Breakdown
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Concern for Cardinal Cornerbacks
Arizona's pass rush needs to succeed for several reasons, one being the relative lack of quality in its cornerback group.
To their credit, the Cardinals tries to be proactive about fixing this problem. Aging Patrick Peterson wasn't getting the job done, so they brought in Malcolm Butler to replace him.
When Butler, to everyone's surprise, retired, the team lacked options.
At cornerback, Arizona relies primarily on a trio of Robert Alford, Byron Murphy, and rookie Marco Wilson who is behind Murphy on the depth chart.
One specific source of concern has been Murphy who is targeted as often as any other Cardinal defensive back. He is allowing 18 yards per completion and 10.6 yards per target.
The thing about Murphy's numbers so far is that easier competition has been inflicting this statistical damage upon him.
In Week 1, AJ Brown mostly went up against Wilson while Julio Jones mostly went up against Alford.
Against Minnesota, Murphy mostly covered Minnesota's second-best wide receiver, Adam Thielen. When going up against Murphy, Thielen caught six of seven targets with one touchdown.
Last week was an easy opponent for the Cardinal pass defense, a Jacksonville squad led by an interception-heaving rookie quarterback lacking any chemistry with his top wide receiver (DJ Chark) and lacking talented alternatives to throw to.
The Importance of Arizona's Pass Rush
Arizona's pass defense is critically weaker when it doesn't get pressure because its cornerbacks grow more exposed.
The Cards like to blitz. They've sent the fourth-highest amount of blitzes so far, thus investing themselves further in getting to the quarterback.
In terms of pass rush, they really only struggled against the Vikings, who tellingly hit them with their highest point total allowed, 33 in a Viking cover.
Sacked once and hit only one time by a player not named Chandler Jones, Kirk Cousins almost had his best game of the season, completing 22 of 32 passes for 244 yards and three touchdowns.
Pass protection helps explain why the Viking pass attack and offense in general thrived against Arizona's defense.
Ram Pass Attack
L.A.'s pass protection has been even more successful than Minnesota's. Whereas the Vikings rank sixth-best in limiting their offensive sack rate, the Rams rank second-best in the category.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is at home in L.A., as his recent dominance over the defending champs now places his completion percentage at 70.2. He has thrown nine touchdowns to one interception.
Stafford has developed the most comfort with Cooper Kupp, easily the team's leading receiver, although he also has guys like Robert Woods -- a 1,000-yard receiver in 2018 and 2019 -- to throw to.
The pass protection is there to stymy Arizona's pass rush while the quarterback and wide receivers will ably navigate the Cardinal secondary.
Kyler Murray Trend
Quarterback Kyler Murray is obviously the centerpiece of Arizona's offense.
However, he has yet to experience a win in four tries as a member of Arizona facing the Rams.
In those four losses, Arizona lost to the Rams by no fewer than seven points and by as many as 27.
Murray's numbers against the Rams are awful. Out of any team he's faced, his completion-percentage is second-lowest against them and he hasn't thrown more interceptions against any other team.
Moreover, he is statistically ineffective as a runner.
Lack of Support
Murray will be desperate for, but lacking sufficient support from his teammates.
Three starting Cardinal offensive linemen are listed as 'questionable,' thus giving all the more hope to the likes of superstar Aaron Donald on the Ram defensive line.
Furthermore, top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has to go against Jalen Ramsey, who has reliably had his number throughout his career no matter which team each player is on.
Last year, thanks to Ramsey, Hopkins mustered fewer than four yards per target against L.A.
The Verdict
On defense, Arizona's ineffective pass rush will allow Stafford to torch the secondary.
Offensively, Murray will struggle yet again against Los Angeles, whose pass rush will blow up a beleaguered Cardinal offensive line and whose top cornerback will shut down Arizona's best pass-catching weapon.
Best Bet: Rams -4.5 at -107 with BetOnline
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 4:05 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California
Concern for Cardinal Cornerbacks
Arizona's pass rush needs to succeed for several reasons, one being the relative lack of quality in its cornerback group.
To their credit, the Cardinals tries to be proactive about fixing this problem. Aging Patrick Peterson wasn't getting the job done, so they brought in Malcolm Butler to replace him.
When Butler, to everyone's surprise, retired, the team lacked options.
At cornerback, Arizona relies primarily on a trio of Robert Alford, Byron Murphy, and rookie Marco Wilson who is behind Murphy on the depth chart.
One specific source of concern has been Murphy who is targeted as often as any other Cardinal defensive back. He is allowing 18 yards per completion and 10.6 yards per target.
The thing about Murphy's numbers so far is that easier competition has been inflicting this statistical damage upon him.
In Week 1, AJ Brown mostly went up against Wilson while Julio Jones mostly went up against Alford.
Against Minnesota, Murphy mostly covered Minnesota's second-best wide receiver, Adam Thielen. When going up against Murphy, Thielen caught six of seven targets with one touchdown.
Last week was an easy opponent for the Cardinal pass defense, a Jacksonville squad led by an interception-heaving rookie quarterback lacking any chemistry with his top wide receiver (DJ Chark) and lacking talented alternatives to throw to.
The Importance of Arizona's Pass Rush
Arizona's pass defense is critically weaker when it doesn't get pressure because its cornerbacks grow more exposed.
The Cards like to blitz. They've sent the fourth-highest amount of blitzes so far, thus investing themselves further in getting to the quarterback.
In terms of pass rush, they really only struggled against the Vikings, who tellingly hit them with their highest point total allowed, 33 in a Viking cover.
Sacked once and hit only one time by a player not named Chandler Jones, Kirk Cousins almost had his best game of the season, completing 22 of 32 passes for 244 yards and three touchdowns.
Pass protection helps explain why the Viking pass attack and offense in general thrived against Arizona's defense.
Ram Pass Attack
L.A.'s pass protection has been even more successful than Minnesota's. Whereas the Vikings rank sixth-best in limiting their offensive sack rate, the Rams rank second-best in the category.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford is at home in L.A., as his recent dominance over the defending champs now places his completion percentage at 70.2. He has thrown nine touchdowns to one interception.
Stafford has developed the most comfort with Cooper Kupp, easily the team's leading receiver, although he also has guys like Robert Woods -- a 1,000-yard receiver in 2018 and 2019 -- to throw to.
The pass protection is there to stymy Arizona's pass rush while the quarterback and wide receivers will ably navigate the Cardinal secondary.
Kyler Murray Trend
Quarterback Kyler Murray is obviously the centerpiece of Arizona's offense.
However, he has yet to experience a win in four tries as a member of Arizona facing the Rams.
In those four losses, Arizona lost to the Rams by no fewer than seven points and by as many as 27.
Murray's numbers against the Rams are awful. Out of any team he's faced, his completion-percentage is second-lowest against them and he hasn't thrown more interceptions against any other team.
Moreover, he is statistically ineffective as a runner.
Lack of Support
Murray will be desperate for, but lacking sufficient support from his teammates.
Three starting Cardinal offensive linemen are listed as 'questionable,' thus giving all the more hope to the likes of superstar Aaron Donald on the Ram defensive line.
Furthermore, top wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has to go against Jalen Ramsey, who has reliably had his number throughout his career no matter which team each player is on.
Last year, thanks to Ramsey, Hopkins mustered fewer than four yards per target against L.A.
The Verdict
On defense, Arizona's ineffective pass rush will allow Stafford to torch the secondary.
Offensively, Murray will struggle yet again against Los Angeles, whose pass rush will blow up a beleaguered Cardinal offensive line and whose top cornerback will shut down Arizona's best pass-catching weapon.
Best Bet: Rams -4.5 at -107 with BetOnline
