Can somebody tell me why the USF @ NC line dropped?...

[Aztec4Life]

Why did the line drop for the USF @ North Carolina game? I think Groethe has looked solid the past few weeks, and the USF offensive attack is looking more balanced. Stats are a little misleading due to the Tarheels brutal start to their schedule...but even taking that into account, I still think USF is good for a TD+ victory here.

All thoughts on this game welcomed. :wacka wacka:

 

[horses]

Aztec...you won't like my thoughts; the wrong team is favored in this game. Actually...I think it should be close to a pick. If NC had USF's schedule, they would have the exact same record IMO...no way USF deserves to be road chalk in this matchup.

 

[redbearde]

because god wants me to fade the heels and play another spread.

 

[redbearde]

Aztec...you won't like my thoughts; the wrong team is favored in this game. Actually...I think it should be close to a pick. If NC had USF's schedule, they would have the exact same record IMO...no way USF deserves to be road chalk in this matchup.

Oh I think USF wouldn't have had quite as much trouble with Furman...

 

[horses]

you mean like the trouble they had with FIU?

 

[Timh]

I think SF has a much better defense actually.

 

[horses]

TimH...agreed. USF actually has a very good defense.

However, they have NO running game, until this past wknd vs UConn when a frosh (I think?) emerged. Off a big revenge game and going on the road as chalk is not my idea of a good spot, esp out of conference. NC is a very desperate that did not play that poorly vs Miami...I expect a solid effort this weekend.

 

[Timh]

Yeah walk on RB Ben Williams breathed some life into SF running game along with what Grothe could get. Agree with you Horses from a situational point of view that this may not be the best spot for them. Last wk vs Uconn was a big emotional revenge spot. Grothe coming off stretched ligaments in foot as well and may not be compeltely healthy.

 

[Aztec4Life]

Ugh. Well, I gotta stick with my guns on this one. USF did look pretty bad agaisnt Florida Int'l in Week 1. But, they have shown improvement over the past few weeks. I don't think USF blows them out here, but I think Groethe will outshine both of NC's QBs. We all know how big QB play is...and until a NC signal caller actually steps up, I'm fading the Heels.

 

[RJ Esq]

I've got USF -3 and think they win by a TD. Not a great spot, I will agree, but how much assurance do you get now in October?

 

[SportsNut]

I am with Horses here. USF is Matt Grohe ....I tend to stay away from young QB's as road chalk especially when he is the offense. Lets go back to week 1 when UNC was favored to Rutgers.

Now I agree UNC has been worse then anticipated but there also playing teams that are very good...maybe a step back in comeptition is whatthey needed. They certainly competed at Miami this weekend.

If I touch it would be UNC or no play....remember situations are more important then talent

 

[RJ Esq]

If I touch it would be UNC or no play....remember situations are more important then talent

I agree.

I remember when the Rose Bowl kicked USC's ass and Texas was there too.

 

[horses]

RJ...you're on a roll today my man!

 

[abcs]

USC definately didnt get their ass kicked against texas, they gave it away at the end. Blowing a pretty nice size lead. Like the legend said afterwards i dont think the better team won.

BUt oh well..

 

[redbearde]

you mean like the trouble they had with FIU?

I think Florida International might be about on par with UNC, actually.

Rutgers beat shit out of UNC up and down the field. Heels moved the ball on Rutgers, too (surprise), but the heels gave up horribly timed turnovers to end drives poorly. This constitutes the tarheels' best showing this season.

Against the hokies, the Heels passed fairly well and even outgained VT, but that will happen when you keep throwing picks in your own territory and never give your defense 300 yards of territory to give up...When you do that, they don't give up yards, they give up points. VT even coughed up 3 fumbles themselves...and UNC only managed a TD in asstime at the end.

Furman outFD'd UNC 30-20. They outgained UNC 539-454 total AND outgained em in both passing and rushing. Heels gave a pick away. Furman fumbled once. I mean, maybe furman is a 1AA powerhouse...but getting beat in all aspects but the score has GOT to make the heels have brown pants to go with the blue shirts...

Clemson & Miami, well, they just clobbered the Heels. Though in Miami's case, we're not talking about a great offense...pretty frickin bad actually (yeah, I said it), and yet they still put 27 up on UNC. Heels were outgained again, and they threw 2 picks and lost a fumble. This tarheels team is extremely bad.

What is it they have done that actually looks like they're better than USF?

USF meanwhile has bothered to cover a few times and has won a few straight up. They beat up Uconn (but who doesn't?), and Mcneese st should be tossed out too (as should furman), but Flint has a defense, and I question whether UNC could manage a win against even them. USF damn near beat Rutgers...sure, damn near doesn't count, but I watched that game, I assume you did...but USF outgained them (equaled them in FDs), and Grothe looked pretty damned good.

I don't think UNC has the edge in coaching, discipline, and I hesitate to even think UNC has the edge in raw talent...certainly not skill...Perhaps they can rush on USF. We'll see. And don't misunderstand me, I'm not betting either side here, but it's rare to see UNC as a homedog to a CUSA team like USF, and I wondered about it too...but given how absurdly bad the heels have been playing, even when considering the relative difficulty of the schedule, I really think USF will win this. I would only play it with USF as a dog, mind you, so i certainly WISH the line was a pk and could move in my favor...

but alas.

GL with your bets this weekend.

 

[PURPLE & GOLD]

USC definately didnt get their ass kicked against texas, they gave it away at the end. Blowing a pretty nice size lead. Like the legend said afterwards i dont think the better team won.

BUt oh well..

If they had to practice defense at some point in the year against a decent team or two that wouldn't have happened now would it?
:smiley_acbe:

 

[Aztec4Life]

I agree.

I remember when the Rose Bowl kicked USC's ass and Texas was there too.

:bow:

 

[Aztec4Life]

redbearde, Tim, horses & rj - Thanks fellas! This is the only play on my card that I'm starting to second guess. But, like I said, I'm going to stick it out and cheer for the Bulls come Saturday morning! :cheers:

 

[Inspekdah]

I think the home field advantage for NC takes this one for some reason... they haven't played anywhere near their capability.. and if they show up to play the least bit I think they get it done here. They played Rutgers tough.. and did better than the score indicates in Miami like Killa said. It's truly a desperate must-win for them.. and I don't think USF has grounds to truly ever be favored on the road, anywhere. Good value on UNC... plus reverse line movement seems prevelant... even though I would never bet on that alone it only helps.

 

[SportsNut]

Red ~

With all due respect I know your joking with FIU might be on par with NC. I guess if the played on a a nuetral field the game would be a PK then? I'll take UNC everytime in that spot . You think any team says FIU is coming we better be sharp or FIU is coming we better be ready to play. At least UNC is getting raked by conferecne opponents. Furman is a very strong 1 AA program who gave Pitt a scare a few years back so thye shouldnt be taken lightily IMO.

As well as Rutgers going up and down the field on UNC. Rutgers was so close to giving that game away and Teel couldnt get a 1st down in the 4th Q to save his life. Remember UNC foolishly fumbled on the RU 1 and lost 5 points or so. They were also inside the RU 30 at the end of the game before picked. If anyone went up and down the field it was UNC late in the game and RU never had a huge led to say it was meaningless.

Not to mention UNC has QB issues...the mistake is USF played RU at home this is at UNC ...apples and oranges IMO...... UConn is DREADFUL by the way! They couldnt score at INDIANA!!!

I know what your saying and I agree USF is a sound team. To back a team with its only offense being its QB againstan ACC school doesnt make sense to me......but its just my opinion and nothing personal.

 

[horses]

Red,

Appreciate the write-up...if you think UNC is on par with FIU, I would think you'd be all over USF, since they layed 20 to FIU. I'm with Sportsnut...I think you had to be joking or just speaking in exaggerated terms...the talent level at UNC is just better than FIU, and I think this may be a spot it comes out.

All that being said, I am pretty sure I will be passing this game, because I don't trust UNC (and Bunting) at this short price; value (IMO) definitely lies with the 'Heels, though.

Hope this is enough discussion for you Aztec!

GL all.

 

[Razor]

If you're looking for something for this one....NC has struggled against the run defensively....well that is USF's biggest problem on the offensive side. BUT, starting RB Ricky Ponton returns this week after a 6-game suspension. Take it for what it's worth, he hasn't been in any action.

Yeah, it's hard for me to believe UNC is a dog at home to USF. If they can get some pressure on the QB this week, they might can pull one off.

As a Carolina fan.....I'm STILL waiting for Bunting to be gone. His fault or not, hell he's the head man. Not recognizing personel on the field for trick plays.....personal foul penalties allowing drives to continue.....oh yeah, and the fact that Bunting is a 'good guy for the job'.....yet sucks.

 

[redbearde]

Red ~

With all due respect I know your joking with FIU might be on par with NC. I guess if the played on a a nuetral field the game would be a PK then? I'll take UNC everytime in that spot . You think any team says FIU is coming we better be sharp or FIU is coming we better be ready to play. At least UNC is getting raked by conferecne opponents. Furman is a very strong 1 AA program who gave Pitt a scare a few years back so thye shouldnt be taken lightily IMO.

As well as Rutgers going up and down the field on UNC. Rutgers was so close to giving that game away and Teel couldnt get a 1st down in the 4th Q to save his life. Remember UNC foolishly fumbled on the RU 1 and lost 5 points or so. They were also inside the RU 30 at the end of the game before picked. If anyone went up and down the field it was UNC late in the game and RU never had a huge led to say it was meaningless.

Not to mention UNC has QB issues...the mistake is USF played RU at home this is at UNC ...apples and oranges IMO...... UConn is DREADFUL by the way! They couldnt score at INDIANA!!!

I know what your saying and I agree USF is a sound team. To back a team with its only offense being its QB againstan ACC school doesnt make sense to me......but its just my opinion and nothing personal.

No, UNC vs Flint on neutral ground would not be a pick...nor would they be a pickem at FLint, but this year's teams would likely give me incredible value on the flint ML dog. This year the ACC is down. When this NCstate team has an opportunity at the championship game and a shot at the orange bowl...well, that's just wrong.

my point was that UNC is really bad this year even considering their opposition. USF has done fairly well...I realize it's largly the QB who is this offense, but I think unc is a lot more likely to give away pts with TOs, and defensive scores on fumble/pick returns.

having said all that, I aint betting this game because it might well be the one where the smurfs show up and play like they ostensibly can.

GL this week, bro..

 

[SportsNut]

I know what you meant red. Didnt mean to sound harsh was just making a point that competing and winning are two different things. Which is why I know USF can compete @ UNC just not sure they can win and being road chalk the only way to play them is to win. I agree FIU is a team that comes to play but they dont have the talent to play week in week out with these teams. UNC has ben destroyed by the inability to find a QB and truthfully I thought Dailey would be the guy. I also have been suprised by there defensive play.

I havent watched much if any UNC ball since RU. The whole thing with there competition is where have they gotteb a breather...Furman is one and I dont know what exactly happened there..maybe they took them lightily...RU and VT at home both are upper tier teams as well as Clemson and Miami...hard to really judge NC in some ways...this is clerly a test.

I admit I do favor these small home dogs that underperform...last week I had Ole Miss and Tulane..so maybe I am biased. I just dont see taking a young QB with no Running game as road chalk as a play for me. The advantage of being at home is just tremndous for a college team. However UNC still looks clueless at QB..

My point was dont start thinking USF was a gift and I know you never meant that...

 

[redbearde]

My point was dont start thinking USF was a gift and I know you never meant that...

Yeah, I think this is one of those games best left unwagered.

I think what happened at the furman game was UNC's inability to play defense. At All.

As you say, this should be something of a test for them.

by the way...I wasn't really grumpy. I suffered no offense. ....and I am due absolutely no respect.

...especially because I STILL think the Ravens are a complete team...

 

[redbearde]

Red,

Appreciate the write-up...if you think UNC is on par with FIU, I would think you'd be all over USF, since they layed 20 to FIU. I'm with Sportsnut...I think you had to be joking or just speaking in exaggerated terms...the talent level at UNC is just better than FIU, and I think this may be a spot it comes out.

Think of it as hyperbole. Though i do think NC is REALLY RILLY really bad this year.

I think as much as I'm arguing with you fellers, the reality is that we're all in agreement to not touch this game with even JoeBren's money. ...much less our own.

 

[pags11]

I may be crazy, but I'm on USF -2.5 here...

 

[hile75]

i think ya gotta be pretty sick in the head to bet this game, thats just me though