I don't see anything that has happened in the last 2 weeks that should change one's opinion concerning Alabama or Auburn. Also not Jimmy, but will give some thoughts:
I don't think this is a particularly good matchup for Auburn, but they are at home, and their HFA is underrated by most. Lost in the celebration and constant replays of the Hail Mary vs UGA, is the fact that Aub blew a 20 point 4th quarter lead. Their defense, particularly the back 7 is not good. Their strength is the DL that are quick and do a good job getting after the QB. Ellis Johnson's defense typically are a bend and don't break type defense. They will give up the intermediate area, particularly in the middle of the field while playing the DBs back and being aggressive with the DL and blitzing. Teams that have success are the ones that are determined and capable of taking what they are given and not forcing things. Once a ground game is established and the defense has to commit another defender in the box, that's when the deeper pass routes become a bigger threat. However, I'd expect AU to start out by stacking the box to take away the run. At least that has been their MO the last 5 seasons. For Alabama, I'd expect Kevin Norwood and OJ Howard to be big pieces of the early offensive gameplan, with Yeldon and Drake playing a bigger role once the defense loosens up a bit.
On offense, AU's success is defined by tempo, execution, and exploiting mismatches. They are able to run various formations with the same personnel, which makes them a matchup issue once they start getting 1st downs. Alabama in particular likes to substitute often based on down, distance, and offensive personnel, so this is an area that AU will try to exploit. Where Alabama should be able to counter is with great gap discipline and the ability to tackle in one on one situations. This was UGA's biggest failure in the first 3 quarters of their game. CJ Mosely and Landon Collins are critical for Alabama on defense, and if they play a good to great game, the Alabama defense will have a great game.
Special teams could play an important role in this game, and both teams are pretty good. AU's PK is one of the best in the country and is a touchback machine on kickoffs. Alabama has their best return and coverage units in the Saban era. Both teams have returners that can influence the field position battle, as well as take one for a score. Landon Collins has been especially awesome on coverage units. LSU actually double and sometimes triple teamed him on kick returns. It wasn't mentioned on the CBS broadcast, but on the kick returns, Beckham took a knee when Collins was allowed to run free, and ran it out when he was well blocked. A couple of those turned into big returns. Don't know if AU will do the same, but it wouldn't surprise me. Cody Mandell has also been a bright spot for Alabama, doing a great job of flipping fields or pinning teams inside their own 15. Admittedly don't know much about AU's punter.
There are some intangibles that I feel favor Alabama. For one, this is no longer a "nothing to lose, let's throw the kitchen sink at them" game for Auburn. They potentially have as much to lose as Alabama does. Because of this, I don't think we'll see Malzahn dial up a bunch of trick plays and onside kicks like he has done the last few times he coached against Alabama. While they will no doubt be jacked for the game, I could see a tighter AU team than we'd expect. Alabama's experience in big games can't be overlooked either. This is the same team that won in a hostile, electric College Station early in the year, and a lot of these players went into Baton Rouge last year in a night game and pulled out a win. They won't be overwhelmed by the atmosphere and situation. I also expect McCarron to show more poise when things don't go well than Marshall for AU.
All of this is of course coming from an Alabama fan, so take it with as big a grain of salt as you wish. I try to be as unbiased as I can on a board that is dedicated to making money and not the fan-speak and homerism on message boards like Rivals. Ten points seems like a lot in a rivalry game with 2 teams in the top 5, and it is. If Alabama gets up early, I think it will be a blowout. If AU is able to go up a couple of scores early, they have a puncher's chance of pulling off the upset, and certainly of keeping it within the line. Personally, I think Alabama is a much better team in pretty much every area, and will win a game that may appear close but was never really in doubt, similar to the aTm game earlier this year. I'm predicting 38-21
Fabulous write-up gps, and as usual, I pretty agree with everything you've said. I will add that Alabama lost a significant piece to their special teams units when Vinnie Sunseri went out for the season. He was a kamikaze on the coverage teams. That said, Alabama still has tremendous talent on their special team units. I mentioned this before the Virginia Tech game. I said the Alabama's special team units versus Virginia Tech's special teams unit is a talent mismatch. The reason that is so is because Saban has amassed so much talent on the roster that these super talented newbies have to make their mark on special teams if they expect to climb up the depth chart - guys like 5* safety Landon Collins is a perfect example. He would have been starting Day 1 at virtually any other school in the nation, but at Alabama he had to earn his playing time via special teams.
I also agree with you that the unsung heros of the Auburn football team are the offensive and defensive lines, and while I don't think it will have any dramatic effect on the ultimate outcome of the game, Auburn being at home should definitely allow them to be a little more at ease.
Aside from Malzahn, Auburn has a very good and experienced coaching staff. I watched one of Auburn's spring practices and observed that Malzahn and the coaching staff were really making an effort to do things the right way. I knew this would be a much improved team this season, but I never expected them to enter the Iron Bowl at 10 & 1 and playing for the SEC West crown. I thought with their QB situation such as it is, 7 (regular season) wins would have been about the high-water mark for this team. I thought a 6 or 7 win season would be a springboard to bigger and better things in subsequent years. The fact that Malzahn has been able to take this team as far as he has without a legitimate passing threat at the QB position is simply amazing, and he is certainly worthy of coach-of-the-year honors for that reason alone.
That said, Malzahn has never had any success running the ball against Alabama, and I would expect that to continue this season. In 2009 Auburn rushed the ball 32 times for 151 yards for a 4.7 ypc average. One of those rushes, however, was a rather flukey 67-yard run by WR Terrell Zachery on Auburn's 4th play from scrimmage. Auburn ran that same play on at least two other occasions later in the game, and both times it went for negative yardage.
Without that 67-yard run, Auburn rushed the ball 31 times for 84 yards, or 2.7 ypc. As you'll see, the 2.7 ypc is much more representative of Auburn's true ability to run against a Saban coached defense.
When Cam Newton came to Tuscaloosa the following season (2010), Auburn rushed for 69 yards on 30 carries, or 2.3 ypc. And in 2011 a Cam Newton-less Auburn team rushed for 78 yards on 35 carries (2.2 ypc).
The cumulative rushing totals for these three games are 97 rushes for 298 yards, or 3.1 ypc. If we subtract the one fluke run for 67 yards, we have 96 rushes for 231 yards, or 2.4 ypc.
Expect the same type of rushing production out of Auburn in this game: less than 100 yards and a per rush average in the low 2s. As in years past, Alabama will again take away Auburn's rushing attack. The only real shot that Auburn has to move the ball effectively is through the air like Cam Newton did, and I don't believe Auburn is capable of doing that on a sustained basis. The bottom line is that Auburn will have to make a lot of plays in the passing game if the have any chance of making this a competitive football game.
Auburn's offense versus Alabama's defense sets up very similar to LSU's one-dimensional offense versus Alabama's defense in the 2011 national title game. Alabama knew that if they took away LSU's rushing attack, Jordan Jefferson could not beat them passing the ball. At least on that side of the ball, this game sets up exactly the same way.
I think both offenses will start off the game trying to loosen up the opposing defenses via the passing game, particularly Auburn. I think Malzahn will open the game with some safe throws for Marshall. I think this will prove to be a successful strategy, and I would not be shocked to see Auburn score on their fist possession. After that I expect Alabama's defense to make some adjustments and locked down the Auburn offense for pretty much the remainder of the game.
While this game certainly has shutout potential, I'll give Auburn credit for a couple of scores - 2 field goals, 2 touchdowns, or some combination thereof. I think that's pretty much the best case scenario for Auburn, and of course 14 points won't be nearly enough to win or cover this game.
Conversely, when Alabama decides to dial up the full capabilities of their offense, they're about as unstoppable as there is in college football. For Auburn to have any hope of slowing Alabama down, their defensive line will have to play lights out. If McCarron is able to deliver the ball to his receivers in rhythm, the back end of Auburn's defense really has little chance of slowing down Alabama's athletes. And if Alabama is able to stretch the field with the passing game, that will open it up for Alabama's running backs to make some big plays in the running game.
If you can get this line under 14 (currently 10 @ BM), back up the Brinks truck in your bookie's driveway and unload. I think there is really very little chance this will be a competitive football game. Ultimately I think we'll see a final score of something in the 45-10 range.
