Cal @ Oregon State Discussion



I was looking at Keepers Power Ratings today since he finally got them up for week #5 (He went 7-4 ATS on his Best Bets last week by the way) and it surprised me to see Oregon State being given a -1.5 spread. Right now you can get Oregon State as a +8.5 home dog!

So, it caused me to look a little deeper here. The strength of Cals team is their experience and their offensive and defensive lines. Guess what, it just so happens that that is Oregon State's strength as well! Oregon State likes to throw the ball and Cal's pass defense is ranked 122nd in nation currently. (Their rush defense is not much better at 112th in nation). Cal is ranked 12th in the nation passing though, but guess what . . . . . Oregon State's pass defense is ranked 11th in the nation and they are ranked 19th in the nation defensively overall!!

Throw this all in with this fact: this is a sandwich game for Cal coming off a BIG win against ASU and has another BIG game next week against Oregon! Oregon State has Washington St on deck.

Guys, this is looking like a good play on Oregon State! Forget last week's performance of Cal against ASU. I cashed that game as well as a lot of you did, but one of the reasons we cashed it was because ASU committed 5 turnovers -- two interceptions which were run back for TDs! Also, Cal had one of those TD's off a punt return. Take away those three TDs and Cal wins 28-21 and we're crying about losing ATS!

I'd like some feedback on this . . . . . . . .
I'm off of it.

I was considering it but now I'm off.

Call could well kick the shit out of the Beavs. Revenge spot. But Beaver Stadium is a tough place to play and the Bears have the Ducks the following week.
Pac 10 is so screwy, especially big favorties ( minus USC of course)
I don't use the revenge angle much whenever you get into conference play unless the game was lost by noteable circumstances (i.e. Oklahoma at Texas tech last year). I think Cal will likely be looking ahead to oregon here and will have a bit of a hangover after last week's win against ASU. I'm considering an Oregon State play, but I will wait to see if the line will get higher.
Oregon St. went into Berkely and beat the bears last year as 15 point dogs. I dont think California will overlook them. This is Cal's 1st road game since the Tennessee debacle, so thye should be focused. However, I think the Beavers can keep it close.
RSMS9999 said:
Oregon St. went into Berkely and beat the bears last year as 15 point dogs. I dont think California will overlook them. This is Cal's 1st road game since the Tennessee debacle, so thye should be focused. However, I think the Beavers can keep it close.

Exactly. Very notable circumstances. Not just a conference loss.

One of the games I watched on ESPN Classic before the season started.

Cal is focused. It's all on the Beavs to keep it close. If it gets out of hand, Cal looks ahead to Oregon.
DeCoud plans to be back

[FONT=geneva,arial]- Rusty Simmons, Chronicle Staff Writer
[/FONT][FONT=geneva,arial][SIZE=-2]Monday, September 25, 2006

Cal junior safety Thomas DeCoud, who is tied for the team lead with 26 tackles, said Sunday he sprained the medial collateral ligament in his right knee.
"I just got the MRI today, so they're still taking a look at it," he said, "but you know I'll rehab it and be back out there as fast as possible."
Coach Jeff Tedford, who had not gotten a report on DeCoud's MRI exam immediately after Sunday's practice, said further evaluation was still needed. The injury usually sidelines players for two to four weeks.
DeCoud, who made his name with six blocked kicks in his first two seasons at Cal, limped off the field after covering an overthrown deep ball in the first quarter of Saturday's 49-21 win over Arizona State, but the injury actually occurred a couple of plays earlier. After engaging a running back, DeCoud's knee buckled underneath him when a teammate was blocked into him.
Bernard Hicks, who had five tackles and broke up a pass against Arizona State, is expected to start until DeCoud is able to return.
Banged-up bangers: The offensive line could be without both of its starting tackles again this week as right tackle Scott Smith (knee) is expected to miss about two more weeks and left tackle Andrew Cameron (ankle) has been sidelined the last two weeks.
The unit proved against the nation's top sack attack Saturday that it might not matter.
"You can't get the ball down the field vertically without the protection, and our offensive line really did a nice job," offensive coordinator Mike Dunbar said.
Banged-up line concern for OSU

Tackle Josh Linehan's knee injury could hurt the Beavers' chances of running effectively against No. 20 California
Monday, September 25, 2006 PAUL BUKER
The Oregonian
An offensive line considered to be one of the strengths of the Oregon State football team has taken some shots lately.
Left guard Jeremy Perry played but didn't start Saturday night in a 38-0 win over Idaho after undergoing arthroscopic surgery during the open week. Right tackle Josh Linehan left the Idaho game late in the first quarter with a knee injury after getting hit by Vandals defensive end Ben Alexander.
Linehan's lateral mobility seemed to be affected, and he could be questionable for this week's Pacific-10 Conference opener against No. 20 California at Reser Stadium. That is not good news for the Beavers, who probably must dominate time of possession and run the ball effectively to have a chance at upsetting the Bears, 101/2-point favorites.
OSU coach Mike Riley said Sunday that Linehan, who has started 25 of the team's last 26 games, will have a magnetic resonance imaging exam today.
"We don't know yet (how serious it is)," said Riley. "I don't really know how it happened. It was on a block after an interception (by Idaho) and the guy got a penalty. . . . It must have been the way he twisted, because it didn't look like anything."
Riley said he watched part of Cal's 49-21 victory over Arizona State on Saturday. He said Cal, a team loaded with playmakers, will be the best team the Beavers have played this season.
"They're really athletic," said Riley. "They've got athletes all over the field -- special teams, offense, defense. They're a very good, talented team and we're just going to have to continue to improve. I thought we made a good jump in a lot of areas (against Idaho). We'll need that big a jump, and more, to beat this team."
For whatever reason, what happens against Cal seems to have a profound impact on Oregon State's season. The last time the Bears played at Reser Stadium was 2004, and they put a 49-7 whipping on Riley's team.
"They beat the heck out of us," said Riley, "and I'm going to remind our players of that."
But that team came back from the Cal loss and won five of its next six games to earn a bowl bid. It was the opposite of what happened last season, when OSU was 4-2 and feeling good after upsetting the No. 18 Bears 23-20 in Berkeley, then inexplicably lost four of its next five.
The Beavers' win at Cal snapped the Bears' 10-game home winning streak and ended an eight-game OSU losing streak to top-25 teams. OSU tailback Yvenson Bernard, who was emerging as one of the Pac-10's top backs, tore up Cal's defense for a career-high 194 yards and two touchdowns.
Cal's defense still looks susceptible to the run: Backup Arizona State tailback Ryan Torain had a career-high 191 yards rushing Saturday, statistics that were overshadowed by ASU quarterback Rudy Carpenter's four interceptions. The Cal defense was all over the sophomore quarterback.
If Riley thinks the Beavers will be successful running the ball against Cal, despite their depleted offensive line, he wasn't going to say it.
"We'll just have to see how it plays out," he said. "I think running for us is going to be very, very important. And then I think protection (of the quarterback) is going to be a key because they really got to Carpenter."
Running the ball was an effective strategy against Cal's penchant for showing nine-man fronts and blitzing.
Riley said Idaho was a good tuneup because the Vandals blitzed constantly. "We counted 43," said Riley. "We saw the kitchen sink, which was good. It was good preparation."
The Beavers were able to take advantage of struggling Cal quarterback Joe Ayoob last season, but Ayoob is no longer the starter.
Sophomore Nate Longshore had a shaky opener against Tennessee, but he's been hot in the three games since. Longshore threw for 270 yards and four touchdowns against Arizona State. Riley said he was recruiting Longshore in 2004 before the quarterback signed with the Bears.
"It appears he's getting comfortable with what they're doing," said Riley. "He can really throw the ball."
Paul Buker: 503-221-8167; To read his and Jim Beseda's OSU blog, go to behindbeaversbeat.
I'm on Cal -9.5 this week.

It will be a popular public play, but I'm sticking with the Bears for a couple of reasons...

1. How good is the Oregon State team? Considering their relatively soft schedule so far, it's tough to tell. They rolled E. Washington (56-17) and Idaho (38-0) at home, and got waxed by Boise State (14-42) in Boise.

If you don't mind SoonerBS, I'm going to kind of play Devil's advocate here. Going off what you said...

Oregon State's pass defense is ranked 11th in the nation and they are ranked 19th in the nation defensively overall!!

Considering Johnson of the Broncos single handedly ran for 220 yards & 5 TDs against the Beavers (meaning Boise St. never had to pass the ball), and OSU's other two opponents were complete dog poo, this statistic is way overvalued. This is Oregon State's first true test this season (if you consider Boise State test #1, they failed miserably).

Guess what, it just so happens that that is Oregon State's strength as well! Oregon State likes to throw the ball and Cal's pass defense is ranked 122nd in nation currently.

Let's look into this statistic/ranking a little more. First, let's go over Cal's poor rush defense ranking. Most of these conceded yards came in Week 1 against Tennessee (arguably one of the better rushing programs in the country). The Bears did a phenomenal job completely shutting down the Minnesota rushing attack (typically very tough to stop). Portland St. couldn't do much on the ground against Cal, and if you watched the ASU game, it was clear the Bears were geared to stop Carpenter before Torain. The Sun Devils strength is their passing game, and Cal was in Carpenter's face all day. Torain did get some great yardage, but it was because Cal was so focused on stopping the pass (the only way ASU could get back into the game at that point).

If you ask me, Cal's pass defense looked solid last week. They didn't give Carpenter many opportunities, and limited big plays from ASU.

2. How good is Cal? Good, but not great. Longshore has shown steady improvement since Week 1. Offense is averaging roughly 160 yards/game on the ground (450 total yards/game). They have had a much, much tougher schedule than Oregon State. Cal lost at Tennessee (18-35), and has won their last three at home against Minnesota (42-17), Portland State (42-16), and Arizona State (49-21).

If you ask me, Tennessee, Minnesota, and ASU are much more of a test than E. Washington, Idaho, and Boise State.

3. This is a HUGE revenge game for Cal. You think Tedford will let them forget how OSU knocked them flat at home last season? IMO, Cal will come to Beaver Stadium ready for some payback. They certainly can't afford to lose to OSU, especially with their upcoming Pac-10 schedule. I think Cal wins big here, despite being on the road.

GL this week Sooner. I'm always game for more discussion. :shake:
Havn't decided on this game yet...but jsut wanted to say that you gotta take those stats w/ a grain of salt.
Outta 4 games, Cal has played 3 good teams and one crap team. And outta 3 games, the only team worth mentioning that Oregon St has played is Boise. How do you think Cal would look with that schedule? Or how would their defense look with those same 3 opponents?

Bottom line...Oregon St is not in Cal's stratosphere. That said, i think 10 pts is about right, considering everything. Cal will be looking to that Oregon matchup...and they do have some issues on the defensive side.

Also, where Cal might not quite reach their typical 40-something this coming saturday...they'll definitely by in the 30s. Question then is if you think Oregon St can keep pace with that, and be in the high 20s at least.
That's the kind of input I was looking for Aztec and Yanks. Thanks a lot! Looks like I may make this a "no play."
You said it all Aztec. This is one of my bigger plays this week.

Also, think how Boise shredded OSU on the ground..........think Lynch & Forsett will have any success?

Cal should clamp the run & force Moore to throw...........jmo
not necessarily sold on playing Cal this week, but there is no way I would touch Oregon 2 cents
on cal -10 to the bank lynch runs for 180 yards and 3 tds,longshore throws for 275 and 2 tds 1 int, the defense will run one back and oregon state is lfet at home with hier pants down and dick in hand while the bears roll 45-18
I had to straighten Keeper's out on that Tex game last week, was actually a loss for them 6-5 vs. 7-4. He really does a nice job with that site, great point of reference.
Great information Aztec. Damn good. You just single-handedly explained why power ratings have their limitations. Everybody modifies based on strength of schedule, but you can't numerically reflect the points you make with statistics. You talked me off of this one.