bull
Coattailing Cheerleader
4-2 opening night , includes
0-0 coattailing
0-1 1-AA games
0-0 Money Line plays
Saturday's card is headed by
Nebraska -21 This went as low as 19 after I bet it, but I think you have to go 22 or better at this point. Soonerbs and horses have excellent write-ups on this one , so I won't elaborate. I happen to agree with them.
The other plays in this post are 1-AAs so you can stop here or read on.
The plays are at 5Dimes and all are at -115 juice. And they have moved against me since they first came out, so next week I have to play and post earlier. There are some big line moves in these games , which give possible middling opportunities.
The Plays:
Appalachian +21.5 vs NC State. - I believe that the Wolfpack are going to be bad this year. If I am wrong on that, I may lose this game - or I may still win. Appy is the defending 1-AA champion, so they have experience palying under pressure. For whatever it's worth, they lost last year 38-6 at Kansas and 24-0 at LSU. Here's what my 1-AA guru has to say.
With most of the key players returning from last year’s national champion, the Mountaineers should be primed and ready to go for a challenge from North Carolina’s top I-A program for the first part of this decade. The Wolfpack finished 7-5 last season and shut out South Florida in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. But they also saw three standout defensive linemen selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and don’t feature an explosive offense. The Wolfpack only averaged 20 ppg last year, and scored less than 20 points six times. An Appalachian State defense that features three preseason All-Americans, a young but talented linebacking corps and speed throughout the unit will be able to hold its own against the Wolfpack attack. The Mountaineers might get some traction on the ground with Kevin Richardson running against new starters on the Wolfpack defensive line, and the Mountaineers should match up with the Wolfpack on the outside with good speed and depth at wide receiver. Winning at a good program in the ACC would be a huge boost for Appalachian State and the perception of I-AA teams, but the Mountaineers can do it. The Mountaineers will need a big effort from Trey Elder, who has experience but did show some holes in last year’s national title game. While the upset is possible, the Wolfpack do have a solid offensive line and should have an advantage rushing the ball. And this is a team that beat Florida State and Georgia Tech and narrowly lost to Virginia Tech last year. The Mountaineers will be in it right until the end, but N.C. State’s running game will do just enough to hold on for the win. Prediction: NC State 24, Appalachian State 21
Umass -11.5 vs Colgate
This one is my favorite minor league play this week. My guru says:
It started with a playoff game in the snow and ice in November 2003, and now the budding regional rivalry between Colgate and Massachusetts has evolved into a quality regional inter-conference matchup. Massachusetts earned payback for its playoff loss by winning, 30-20, at home in 2004, while Colgate pulled off an upset by forcing eight turnovers and holding on for a 17-14 home win against the No. 15 ranked Minutemen in the second week of the 2005 campaign. Though the Minutemen are now ranked No. 10 and Colgate begins the season just outside of the top 25, no one would be shocked if the Raiders pulled out another win. In last year’s game, Colgate was coming off a home loss to Central Connecticut State and still searching for players at the skill positions. Now, the Raiders have Jordan Scott ready to carry the load at running back and eight starters back on an offense that came along nicely last year. The defense loses some important players, but the Raiders have almost always fielded a strong unit during Dick Biddle’s tenure. While the outlook is rosier for the Raiders, they won’t see the same Massachusetts team on the other side of the field, either. The Minutemen solved their early-season quarterback problems when Liam Coen emerged to solidify the position last year. Coen notched 2,175 and 10 touchdowns as a freshman, and is primed for an even bigger season with a talented cast of wide receivers and Steve Baylark back at running back. A defense that was among the best in I-AA returns six starters, and figures to make Scott earn all of his yards. The trends are even going the way of the Minutemen, as the home team has controlled this series and Colgate has a 2-8 record in season openers under Biddle. Expect those trends to continue, and Massachusetts to make a statement that it will be a serious contender after just missing the playoffs last year. Prediction: Massachusetts 31, Colgate 14
I haven't played this one yet, waiting for 21. I will post the points I get bfore kickoff.
Illinois St +20 vs Kansas State.
I think K State may be bad this year. If they're not .... ? Well. The man says
If the Redbirds are as strong as their preseason ranking and predictions indicate, they have a real chance to pull out a victory against Kansas State. Illinois State has fared well in I-A matchups in the past two years, with a quality outing in a 32-21 loss to Iowa State last year. The return of offensive standouts like Luke Drone, Pierre Rembert and Laurent Robinson should make the Redbird offense tough for anyone to stop and give them enough firepower to stay with Kansas State. The Wildcats are nowhere near the stellar level they reached as recently as 2003, and are coming off a second consecutive season without a bowl. Losses in six of the final eight games last year would seem to show Kansas State as a program on the decline. But while those developments show that Illinois State has a chance, Kansas State is still established as a solid team. The Wildcats narrowly lost most of their games down the stretch last year, and will be fired up in the first game under new head coach Ron Prince. A very strong Illinois State team will hang tough against a I-A program again, but ultimately fall by a couple of scores. Prediction: Kansas State 31, Illinois State 20
Dayton –24 ½ over Robert Morris.
The following prose is all mine.
This one moved 3 ½ points against me but I still have played it. Robert Morris is in a ‘rebuilding’ year, brand new QB, and projected to go 0-11.
Dayton returns their conf POY and 5th year starter John Hoppe ( there- I even gave you a name)
and their QB. They won games last year by 38, 18, 46,35, 32, 8, 45, 30, and 34. so coach doesn’t mind running the score. The Power rating differential at Keepers is in the lo 30s. I don’t use Keepers as a bible, but in this case it furnishes me with a little assurance.
There are some other juicy possiblities out there ( Richmond +8 v Duke for one ), but I'll stop there. Back tomorrow with the rest of the bullsheet. I promise you will have heard of all the teams.
0-0 coattailing
0-1 1-AA games
0-0 Money Line plays
Saturday's card is headed by
Nebraska -21 This went as low as 19 after I bet it, but I think you have to go 22 or better at this point. Soonerbs and horses have excellent write-ups on this one , so I won't elaborate. I happen to agree with them.
The other plays in this post are 1-AAs so you can stop here or read on.
The plays are at 5Dimes and all are at -115 juice. And they have moved against me since they first came out, so next week I have to play and post earlier. There are some big line moves in these games , which give possible middling opportunities.
The Plays:
Appalachian +21.5 vs NC State. - I believe that the Wolfpack are going to be bad this year. If I am wrong on that, I may lose this game - or I may still win. Appy is the defending 1-AA champion, so they have experience palying under pressure. For whatever it's worth, they lost last year 38-6 at Kansas and 24-0 at LSU. Here's what my 1-AA guru has to say.
With most of the key players returning from last year’s national champion, the Mountaineers should be primed and ready to go for a challenge from North Carolina’s top I-A program for the first part of this decade. The Wolfpack finished 7-5 last season and shut out South Florida in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. But they also saw three standout defensive linemen selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, and don’t feature an explosive offense. The Wolfpack only averaged 20 ppg last year, and scored less than 20 points six times. An Appalachian State defense that features three preseason All-Americans, a young but talented linebacking corps and speed throughout the unit will be able to hold its own against the Wolfpack attack. The Mountaineers might get some traction on the ground with Kevin Richardson running against new starters on the Wolfpack defensive line, and the Mountaineers should match up with the Wolfpack on the outside with good speed and depth at wide receiver. Winning at a good program in the ACC would be a huge boost for Appalachian State and the perception of I-AA teams, but the Mountaineers can do it. The Mountaineers will need a big effort from Trey Elder, who has experience but did show some holes in last year’s national title game. While the upset is possible, the Wolfpack do have a solid offensive line and should have an advantage rushing the ball. And this is a team that beat Florida State and Georgia Tech and narrowly lost to Virginia Tech last year. The Mountaineers will be in it right until the end, but N.C. State’s running game will do just enough to hold on for the win. Prediction: NC State 24, Appalachian State 21
Umass -11.5 vs Colgate
This one is my favorite minor league play this week. My guru says:
It started with a playoff game in the snow and ice in November 2003, and now the budding regional rivalry between Colgate and Massachusetts has evolved into a quality regional inter-conference matchup. Massachusetts earned payback for its playoff loss by winning, 30-20, at home in 2004, while Colgate pulled off an upset by forcing eight turnovers and holding on for a 17-14 home win against the No. 15 ranked Minutemen in the second week of the 2005 campaign. Though the Minutemen are now ranked No. 10 and Colgate begins the season just outside of the top 25, no one would be shocked if the Raiders pulled out another win. In last year’s game, Colgate was coming off a home loss to Central Connecticut State and still searching for players at the skill positions. Now, the Raiders have Jordan Scott ready to carry the load at running back and eight starters back on an offense that came along nicely last year. The defense loses some important players, but the Raiders have almost always fielded a strong unit during Dick Biddle’s tenure. While the outlook is rosier for the Raiders, they won’t see the same Massachusetts team on the other side of the field, either. The Minutemen solved their early-season quarterback problems when Liam Coen emerged to solidify the position last year. Coen notched 2,175 and 10 touchdowns as a freshman, and is primed for an even bigger season with a talented cast of wide receivers and Steve Baylark back at running back. A defense that was among the best in I-AA returns six starters, and figures to make Scott earn all of his yards. The trends are even going the way of the Minutemen, as the home team has controlled this series and Colgate has a 2-8 record in season openers under Biddle. Expect those trends to continue, and Massachusetts to make a statement that it will be a serious contender after just missing the playoffs last year. Prediction: Massachusetts 31, Colgate 14
I haven't played this one yet, waiting for 21. I will post the points I get bfore kickoff.
Illinois St +20 vs Kansas State.
I think K State may be bad this year. If they're not .... ? Well. The man says
If the Redbirds are as strong as their preseason ranking and predictions indicate, they have a real chance to pull out a victory against Kansas State. Illinois State has fared well in I-A matchups in the past two years, with a quality outing in a 32-21 loss to Iowa State last year. The return of offensive standouts like Luke Drone, Pierre Rembert and Laurent Robinson should make the Redbird offense tough for anyone to stop and give them enough firepower to stay with Kansas State. The Wildcats are nowhere near the stellar level they reached as recently as 2003, and are coming off a second consecutive season without a bowl. Losses in six of the final eight games last year would seem to show Kansas State as a program on the decline. But while those developments show that Illinois State has a chance, Kansas State is still established as a solid team. The Wildcats narrowly lost most of their games down the stretch last year, and will be fired up in the first game under new head coach Ron Prince. A very strong Illinois State team will hang tough against a I-A program again, but ultimately fall by a couple of scores. Prediction: Kansas State 31, Illinois State 20
Dayton –24 ½ over Robert Morris.
The following prose is all mine.
This one moved 3 ½ points against me but I still have played it. Robert Morris is in a ‘rebuilding’ year, brand new QB, and projected to go 0-11.
Dayton returns their conf POY and 5th year starter John Hoppe ( there- I even gave you a name)
and their QB. They won games last year by 38, 18, 46,35, 32, 8, 45, 30, and 34. so coach doesn’t mind running the score. The Power rating differential at Keepers is in the lo 30s. I don’t use Keepers as a bible, but in this case it furnishes me with a little assurance.
There are some other juicy possiblities out there ( Richmond +8 v Duke for one ), but I'll stop there. Back tomorrow with the rest of the bullsheet. I promise you will have heard of all the teams.
