Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns discussion break down

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Short trip for Buff so travel not an issue. I'm not ready to lay a fg+ with Clev vs anybody (except Jacksonville) - Buff +4.5 and Buff TT ov for me.
 
I'm not ready to lay a fg+ with Clev vs anybody (except Jacksonville)

This. Which of course means they'll win by 7.

I feel like 41 is low, but for a Sunday not a Thursday. Thursday nights are generally shitshows of bad football with the goal simply to get through it injury free. So it's tough to really go in on a side or total on these. At least for me.
 
Joe Public said:
I'm not ready to lay a fg+ with Clev vs anybody (except Jacksonville)

This. Which of course means they'll win by 7.

I feel like 41 is low, but for a Sunday not a Thursday. Thursday nights are generally shitshows of bad football with the goal simply to get through it injury free. So it's tough to really go in on a side or total on these. At least for me.
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Cleveland's what, 3-1 to the under so far? D's been pretty stingy. Plus your Thursday night shitshow factor. Feels like the overs are flying in on everyone else's games though.
 
hoping to see Hoyer throw it around all day to Cameron and Gordon. Also sitting Spiller for fantasy purposes.....big fan of Browns D for the most part.
 
Remember how the Browns magically looked like the beastmode patriots that went 17-1? I think it was vs the steelers when they were good and their first national tv game?

I have that feeling for this game. I feel Cleveland D at home vs EJ turnover machine and Cleveland wins by ateast 10
 
ddk997 said:
Remember how the Browns magically looked like the beastmode patriots that went 17-1? I think it was vs the steelers when they were good and their first national tv game?

I have that feeling for this game. I feel Cleveland D at home vs EJ turnover machine and Cleveland wins by ateast 10
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Im thinking this also,I havent seen the browns live for a long time.Actually looking forward to seeing some Cleveland football :cheers:
 
Tashard Choice may be getting the start for the Bills in the backfield, as both Spiller and Jackson are injured, especialy with the game being on Thursday.

If my memory serves me correctly, the past few installments of this Buf/Cle matchup have been ridiculously low scoring, very boring games. Will have to check to make sure...which probably means this one flies over the total...lol
 
The last 5 games between these two teams:
2012 24-14 Cle
2010 13-6 Cle
2009 6-3 Buf
2008 29-27 Buf
2007 8-0 Buf
 
One of those, probably the 6-3 game, was one of the worst organized sporting events I have ever watched.
 
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/44595/179/matchup-bills--browns

Buffalo @ Cleveland

Over the past two years, 13-of-19 non-Thanksgiving Thursday night games have gone under Vegas' projected combined point total. That 68.4% clip certainly seems like a trend on a nearly 20-game sample size. Because neither team has time to seriously game plan for Thursday nighters -- they get one legit practice on a shortened week -- offenses typically aren't quite as sharp or aggressive, and play with noticeably less purpose. If you have difficult fantasy-lineup decisions, use factors like this as tiebreakers. ... As noted last week by PFF's Mike Clay, the past two seasons of Thursday nighters have produced a brutal 42:42 TD-to-INT ratio by quarterbacks. Designed run plays, however, average 4.33 YPC on Thursday nights as opposed to 4.22 YPC in normal games. The numbers reflect more rushing than passing success on these short weeks.

Fielding arguably the NFL's most banged-up secondary, Buffalo is getting tormented by enemy receivers. Some wideout stat lines against the Bills through four weeks: Torrey Smith 5-166-1; Santonio Holmes 5-154-1; Stephen Hill 3-108-1; Ted Ginn 3-62-1, Danny Amendola 10-104, Julian Edelman 7-79-2. Despite a slow Week 4 game, I'd be awfully hard pressed to bench Josh Gordon based on these numbers. ... The Browns essentially have no running game, so OC Norv Turner has allowed Brian Hoyer to take a whopping 98 dropbacks through two starts. Hoyer has played with aggressiveness and delivers quickly, mitigating opposing pass rush. "He's got that gunslinger mentality," ESPN tape guru Ron Jaworski observed of Hoyer. "He's not gonna check it down. I like a guy who's willing to take chances." Despite the ominous Thursday night passing trends, Hoyer is worth firing up in two-QB leagues against a Buffalo pass defense allowing two passing scores per game. ... Hoyer's target distribution on the season: Gordon 28, Cameron 23, Davone Bess 16, Chris Ogbonnaya 10, Greg Little 8, Bobby Rainey 3. ... Willis McGahee has emerged as the clear frontrunner for carries in Cleveland's backfield, but doesn't know Norv's protections yet, and isn't playing at all in the passing game. So defenses know the run is coming whenever McGahee enters. Working in McGahee's favor is the Bills' allowance of 464 yards on 103 runs (4.50 YPC) to Jets, Panthers, Patriots, and Ravens tailbacks over their first four games, including career days for Shane Vereen and Bilal Powell. McGahee is just barely on the flex radar.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $300,000 Fantasy Football league for Week 5. It's $25 to join and first prize is $25,000. Starts Sunday at 1pm ET. Here's the link.

Cameron is a truly dominant talent. His athleticism jumps off the tape seemingly at least once per Browns offensive possession, and he's consistently winning catches in contested situations. Hoyer loves Cameron, targeting him 11 times in Week 3 and 12 times in Week 4. No. 2 in fantasy tight end scoring behind only Jimmy Graham, fire up Cameron as an every-week TE1. This Bills defense got lit up for a 7-84-1 stat line by Greg Olsen three weeks ago. Olsen is used in the exact same way Cameron is in a very similar offense conceptually. ... Bess has not been a forgotten man since the Brandon Weeden-to-Hoyer switch, starting over Little and serving as Hoyer's No. 3 pass-game option. Unfortunately, Bess lacks any semblance of playmaking ability and isn't worth a roster spot in 12-team standard leagues. Bess has one touchdown over his last 18 games. ... Ogbonnaya and Rainey are rotational change-of-pace backs behind McGahee, and see extensive work as receivers. Either would be a huge long-shot flex play on Thursday night. Ogbonnaya plays the most because he doubles as a fullback and blitz-protection specialist. Since the Trent Richardson trade, Ogbonnaya has played 89 snaps with 16 touches. McGahee has 23 touches among 40 snaps. Rainey has played 39 offensive downs and touched the ball 13 times.

E.J. Manuel's Bills are in for a very tough test on the road against arguably the league's most underrated defense. The Browns haven't allowed an offensive touchdown in five quarters, rank No. 3 in total defense, and have conceded a league-low two passing scores. They're tied for third in sacks. And with Joe Haden, they can all but eliminate top receivers. Best of luck to E.J. ... No. 1 wideout stats versus the Browns so far this year: A.J. Green 7-51; Mike Wallace 1-15; Greg Jennings 3-43; Torrey Smith 7-85. No touchdowns. Stevie Johnson plays in the slot enough that he may avoid Haden Island on a healthy dose of snaps, but he has to be viewed as a relatively dicey, low-ceiling WR3. Johnson is coming off a one-catch game on six targets against Ravens CB Lardarius Webb. ... Manuel's target allocation through four starts: Johnson 35, Robert Woods 26, Scott Chandler 21, Fred Jackson 17, T.J. Graham 12, C.J. Spiller 11, Tashard Choice 2. ... If Johnson gets the Haden treatment, Woods could be an intriguing Week 5 deep sleeper facing off with CBs Chris Owens and Buster Skrine. Playing 97% of Buffalo's offensive snaps, Woods has at least eight targets in back-to-back games, and is coming off a 4-80-1 line against Baltimore. Woods is a quick-footed, classic "Z" receiver whom NFL Films' Greg Cosell compared to Reggie Wayne coming out of college. Woods is well ahead of Graham in the pecking order at this point.

Though never a bad bet for red-zone TDs, Chandler has topped 70 yards in 3-of-47 career games and has a rough Week 5 matchup. Tight end stats versus Cleveland through four weeks: Kyle Rudolph 5-28; Jermaine Gresham 3-53; Tyler Eifert 3-39; Charles Clay 5-54; Dallas Clark 1-8; Ed Dickson 0-0. Those aren't elite fantasy tight ends, but neither is Chandler. The Browns have not permitted a tight end touchdown this year. ... Although F-Jax's role has been larger than even those who cover the Bills anticipated, Spiller's workload is not his problem. He's averaging 19.5 touches a game one year after averaging 15.6 and finishing as the No. 7 fantasy back. The issue has been coach Doug Marrone's unwillingness or inability to get Spiller into space, instead opting to repeatedly slam him into stacked defensive fronts to the point that Spiller is averaging career lows in yards per carry (3.48) and reception (3.22). Spiller remains far more likely to pick up his production than bottom out, even if improvement against Cleveland seems unlikely. Loaded with up-front talent, the Browns are playing top-four run defense and submitting an NFL-low 2.87 yards per carry. Playing through an ankle sprain on a short week, Spiller should be viewed as a boom-or-bust RB2 on Thursday night. ... Jackson has been more productive than Spiller (5.33 YPC), though F-Jax fumbled twice against the Ravens and is also banged up, nursing a "mild" MCL sprain. Averaging 15.3 touches a game in an unforgiving matchup, Jackson is a mid-range flex.

Score Prediction: Browns 23, Bills 17
 
ManchesterUk said:
Im thinking this also,I havent seen the browns live for a long time.Actually looking forward to seeing some Cleveland football :cheers:
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I watched the Browns play the Vikings. My reaction to the game was that the Vikings really suck. But, now it makes me think that the Browns are pretty good. Hoyer really surprised me.
 
I read that Jackson said that he would play. I just don't think he will be very successful, even though it would be nice for my fantasy team.
 
daveniner said:
I read that Jackson said that he would play. I just don't think he will be very successful, even though it would be nice for my fantasy team.
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Jackson is now listed as probable, so it's likely he will play...but won't be anywhere near 100%. Spiller is listed as questionable and didn't practice today.
 
The bills secondary has been getting abused and only got more banged up last week. They are playing with a bunch of nobodies and even those guys are in positions other than their normal spot. Safeties playing corner etc. I think Hoyer, Gordon and Cameron have a field day under the bright lights. Wouldn't surprise me to see Gordon get targeted 19 times in a showcase and then get traded the following week.
 
Coverdatspred said:
The bills secondary has been getting abused and only got more banged up last week. They are playing with a bunch of nobodies and even those guys are in positions other than their normal spot. Safeties playing corner etc. I think Hoyer, Gordon and Cameron have a field day under the bright lights. Wouldn't surprise me to see Gordon get targeted 19 times in a showcase and then get traded the following week.
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They didn't get abused last week vs Flacco. They had 5 INTs. They definitely got abused the week before vs the Jets, and it was expected that the Ravens would have a field day against them, but they were quite up to the task and pretty much won that game for the Bills last week.
 
the ravens suck, lareux... one of the most fickle teams there is in the league... with pretty shitty road performances
 
[TABLE="class: tableOdds"]
<tbody id="oddsBody">[TR="class: row-odd"]
[TD="class: team"] 10/03

8:25 PM


301 Buffalo Bills
302 Cleveland Browns
​
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 52%
48%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 61%
39%
[/TD]
[TD="class: pct"] 48%
52%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
may be strange to say, but win or lose from what I have seen havent the bills been 'consistent' so far? Not great, but not horrible. They stay in the game, make some mistakes but also have bursts of very good offense and a semi bend but not completely falter defense. EJ gives them speed and a little "intangible." I like the Browns and believe they should win this @ home. But, hard to lay the 4 points. Latest info I see is 58% of money on Bills. I prefer the under, but could see Hoyer/Cameron getting 3 TDs in 1H against 22 ranked D vs the pass.

long/short: Browns get 23 points....will Bills get 18? I lean "yes"

Tough game to figure with any confidence
 
Cds, If Gordon goes off hes not getting traded. Theyd be 3-2. Tank called off & theyll try to make a run
 
Lareux said:
They didn't get abused last week vs Flacco. They had 5 INTs. They definitely got abused the week before vs the Jets, and it was expected that the Ravens would have a field day against them, but they were quite up to the task and pretty much won that game for the Bills last week.
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Flacco threw for 350 yards and Smith caught 166 yards worth of passes. If Flacco doesn't play like an idiot and turn it over 5 times the outcome is different. Credit them for takeaways but you can't give up yardage like that through the air and expect 5 picks to bail you out every week.


Geno Smith picked them apart. Hoyer has better weapons than either the Jets or the Ravens.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Flacco threw for 350 yards and Smith caught 166 yards worth of passes. If Flacco doesn't play like an idiot and turn it over 5 times the outcome is different. Credit them for takeaways but you can't give up yardage like that through the air and expect 5 picks to bail you out every week.


Geno Smith picked them apart. Hoyer has better weapons than either the Jets or the Ravens.
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this perspective is convincing. thx for this posting
 
Browns are 1-4 SU on Thursday Night Football (2006-2012). Bills are 2-1 (2009-2012).

Two shitty somewhat overachieving teams, both off 'upsets' on a short week. Pick your poison.

'Shit stains' with the slight nod due to the Bills' injuries.

Advance line at the LVH was 2.5
 
Everyone seems to love the home teams on short rest TNF angle but it's 0-3 ATS so far and not one has been been close to a cover....
 
Coverdatspred said:
The bills secondary has been getting abused and only got more banged up last week. They are playing with a bunch of nobodies and even those guys are in positions other than their normal spot. Safeties playing corner etc. I think Hoyer, Gordon and Cameron have a field day under the bright lights. Wouldn't surprise me to see Gordon get targeted 19 times in a showcase and then get traded the following week.
Click to expand...


While I agree (and have posted every week) about the glaring weakness in the defense being the secondary, they didn't get more banged up. McKelvin was inactive last week, and is far and away playing the best of all Bills corners. Aaron williams is playing, and had himself a game at cb last week, doesn't matter to me that Flacco threw for so many yards, they had 9 rushes the whole game. The numbers lie in this instance, watching the game the secondary played without a doubt their best game collectively. I think the only time the Bills secondary truly got abused this season was on the road vs the Jets, where they have been notoriously bad. In that game the secondary was depleted and aaron williams had to make the in game switch to corner. Rogers was horrific. I do worry a bit about how they perform on the road with a short week, but this last game has to have them coming in on a high note.

The Bills defensive line had a solid outing with Mario & Dareus both getting sacks. Flacco was well pressured most of the game, and Kiko benefitted greatly from it. Kiko is playing much better than anyone could have anticipated.... 9 solo tackles 1 sack 1 int last game. The Bills are considerably better at LB than they have been for 5+ years, Lawson was a solid pickup. I really don't fear the Browns run game #27 ranked, and to me without an established run game Buffalo has a good chance of winning this road game.
 
Offensively, Jackson playing is huge. Don't forget last season the Bills played @ Cleveland & lost both Fred & CJ in the first quarter. Choice had himself a game that day, 20 for 91yds. If Spiller doesn't go, it affects a couple things. Of course Choice will get more time, but Fred is the better 3rd down back and has a knack for getting the first down. I would love to see Spiller active because I do think the Bills can run on the Browns and he is the long td threat. I know Clev is ranked top tier vs the rush, but they faced #22, #28, #24 ranked running teams. The only team they faced with a run game was Minny who rushed for 134 yds @4.3 ypc. The Bills run game is crucial to their success. They were very successful early in the game last week with the run which opened up lanes for EJ and Marrone and Hackett have both made it clear that they will pound the run. EJ threw 2 ints and had a couple rookie plays, most notably the horrible untouched fumble that Stevie J recovered. Other than that he made some big throws and stayed out of trouble getting sacked twice. Woods is emerging as a favorite target for EJ, getting 8 of EJ's 22 targets. He nearly had a 2 td game and played solid all around. I suspect the Bills will try to get Stevie in the slot much more and keep him away from Haden.



I have been successfully on Bills team total over last 3 weeks, and today it's currently set at 17.5. I think they get to 20 and get the win. Already got in @+175 and likely adding team total over
 
the Bills offense has had a tendency to score most points in one half of the game.

Ravens- 20pt 1sth followed by a 3 pt 2ndh

Jets- 6 pts 1sth followed by a 14 pt 2ndh

Panthers- 3 pt 1sth 20 pt second half

Patriots- 14 pt 1sth, 7 pt second half


Might be something to reference come halftime
 
jump you know 0-3 is an insanely small sample size, has more to say about the particular teams that have played on those thursdays (goddamn eagles!)

its also ridiculous to bring browns thursday night records since 2006 into it. Just bc Charlie Frye wasnt getting it done almost a decade ago is no reason to play or not play a side
 
nbafan88 said:
the ravens suck, lareux... one of the most fickle teams there is in the league... with pretty shitty road performances
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Okay. Still has nothing to do with the Bills secondary not getting torched last week.

And the Ravens suck but the Browns are great? I'm not sure what your point is here...the Browns offense clearly isn't as good as the Ravens.
 
Starting to rain now kind of off and on, still very warm. Always gustier down by the lake, but don't think weather's a factor in this one. Hope we don't get a lightning delay though, too many late nights this week already.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Flacco threw for 350 yards and Smith caught 166 yards worth of passes. If Flacco doesn't play like an idiot and turn it over 5 times the outcome is different. Credit them for takeaways but you can't give up yardage like that through the air and expect 5 picks to bail you out every week.


Geno Smith picked them apart. Hoyer has better weapons than either the Jets or the Ravens.
Click to expand...

As was pointed out earlier, the Ravens rushed the ball 9 times. 350 yds is getting torched in today's NFL? Especially when the opposition only ran the ball 9 times? And you picked off their QB 5 times? We have different definitions of torched I guess.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Starting to rain now kind of off and on, still very warm. Always gustier down by the lake, but don't think weather's a factor in this one. Hope we don't get a lightning delay though, too many late nights this week already.
Click to expand...

man you made it through into today...i for sure thought you'd be MIA for a littlew hile.
 
Lareux said:
Okay. Still has nothing to do with the Bills secondary not getting torched last week.

And the Ravens suck but the Browns are great? I'm not sure what your point is here...the Browns offense clearly isn't as good as the Ravens.
Click to expand...

My point is if the ravens were at home that game would've been totally different. You have a rookie quarterback on the road on a short week against a very solid defense. That's going to force the defense of buffalo to be on the field much longer than against Baltimore.
 
gsro said:
man you made it through into today...i for sure thought you'd be MIA for a littlew hile.
Click to expand...

Tribe's last loss of the season always stings, but I got lots of practice. Sun came up this morning.
 
He is a gametime decision... he had said earlier in the week that if the game was on sunday he would definitely be a go. I think McKelvin's availability is much more important
 
thanks Lex. I hear ya on McKelvin, however, unless you the think Josh Gordon is really going to hurt you, the Browns WR core doesn't really scare me all that much. Think Spiller adds a very different element to the Bills O that can be game-changing - not sure McKelvin (in this spot) is a "game-changer".
 
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