NFL Parlay for Sunday’s games at +264 odds
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Overrated Browns
At 8-3, Cleveland may look like a formidable team. But this record is misleading because, as measured by strength of schedule, the Browns have benefitted from one of the NFL’s easiest schedules.
All three of their losses came against winning teams. Despite its record, Cleveland actually has a negative point differential on the season because its efforts against winning teams have been so poor.
In those three losses, the Titans lost by 32 at Baltimore, 31 at Pittsburgh, and 10 at home to Las Vegas. Their one win against a winning team came at home to Indianapolis.
Road Trends
So one road trend for Cleveland is that the Browns are 0-2 on the road against winning teams with an average deficit of 31.5 points.
Secondly, the Browns have conceded well over 30 points in four of their five road games thus far.
The one exception came against Jacksonville, which ranks 28th right now in scoring offense, as measured by points per game, but still exceeded its team total over/under of 20.5 last Sunday against the Browns.
So expect the Titans, which rank sixth in points per game, to at the very least approach 40 points. Keep this in mind when you look at the team total bets offered by top sportsbooks like Bovada.
Tennessee Pass Offense vs. Cleveland Secondary
It has been established that Cleveland’s top cornerback, Denzel Ward, is unlikely to see the field on Sunday because he is still injured.
Cleveland’s pass defense ranks 20th — as measured by opposing passing yards per game — despite the Pro Bowler Ward. After Ward, there is a significant drop-off in coverage ability.
Titan quarterback Ryan Tannehill does not boast attractive season stats because he has had to be tested by a number of high-ranked pass defenses like that of the Colts, twice, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.
But he reliably throws for at least close to 300 yards along with multiple touchdowns against lower-ranked pass defenses.
Tannehill has a go-to wide receiver in AJ Brown who ranks sixth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns despite missing some games earlier in the season.
Derrick Henry vs. Brown Run Defense
In terms of run defense, the Browns consistently struggle against good ground attacks.
They have faced two of the NFL's five leaders in rushing yards.
One was Josh Jacobs, who achieved a season-high 129 rushing yards when his Raiders faced Cleveland.
The other was James Robinson, who ran for a season-high 128 rushing yards last week when his Jaguars almost upset the Browns.
Right now, the NFL’s leader in rushing yards is Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and it’s not even close. He has 1,257 rushing yards, which is 127 rushing yards more than anybody else.
If this trend — where the Browns allow season-high rushing totals to top-five running backs — were to continue, then Henry would exceed 212 rushing yards.
Henry is physical and explosive, which makes him difficult for defenders to bring down. He will wear down an opposing defense all by himself.
Cleveland Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
One might think that a run-heavy offense would be more likely be involved in a game that stays under the total posted at sportsbooks.
But the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Tennessee’s games where it played an opponent that ranks top-14 in rush-play percentage.
Statistically, the Titan run defense is mediocre. So the fact that it plays the Browns — which rank first in run-play percentage — merits pessimism.
Cleveland will employ two tight-end sets in an attempt to add physicality to its offensive approach.
With his ridiculous 6.3 YPC average so far, Nick Chubb leads a Brown backfield that will also lean on the respectably efficient Kareem Hunt in order to keep the opposing run defense off-balance.
Clearly, the Browns want to rely on their run game and that’s fine. But don’t let this reliance and don’t let public perception fool you about Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield does really well against bad pass defenses as long as the weather cooperates. Importantly, no precipitation is expected to fall for Sunday’s contest.
The former first-round draft pick has played three games against bottom-10 pass defenses where the weather wasn’t absolutely atrocious.
In those three games combined, he threw for nine touchdowns to two interceptions while being efficient in terms of completion percentage and throwing for way more passing yards than he does in other games.
Pass defense has been a big problem for Tennessee. It ranks 28th in the category. So Baker can take advantage with his favored play-action passes and other plays.
The Verdict
Expect a high-scoring game where the Browns run well in order to execute on a higher-level on offense and where the Browns also give up 30+ points on the road, again, as Tannehill and Henry lead a sufficiently balanced Titan offense.
Tennessee is a strong team. With its proven record, it already becomes the type of team that Cleveland completely flops against on the road.
For the above reasons, expect with your Best Bets a clear Titan win that showcases a high point total.
In addition to joining me on the parlay, don’t forget to play the Titan team total ‘over’ 28.5 at -130 at Bovada plus the alternate spread Titans -8.5 at +130 at Bovada.
Best Bet: Parlay Titans -5.5 at -116 & Over 54 at -110 at +264 with BetOnline
Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans
Sunday, December 6, 2020 at 1 p.m. ET (CBS) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee
Overrated Browns
At 8-3, Cleveland may look like a formidable team. But this record is misleading because, as measured by strength of schedule, the Browns have benefitted from one of the NFL’s easiest schedules.
All three of their losses came against winning teams. Despite its record, Cleveland actually has a negative point differential on the season because its efforts against winning teams have been so poor.
In those three losses, the Titans lost by 32 at Baltimore, 31 at Pittsburgh, and 10 at home to Las Vegas. Their one win against a winning team came at home to Indianapolis.
Road Trends
So one road trend for Cleveland is that the Browns are 0-2 on the road against winning teams with an average deficit of 31.5 points.
Secondly, the Browns have conceded well over 30 points in four of their five road games thus far.
The one exception came against Jacksonville, which ranks 28th right now in scoring offense, as measured by points per game, but still exceeded its team total over/under of 20.5 last Sunday against the Browns.
So expect the Titans, which rank sixth in points per game, to at the very least approach 40 points. Keep this in mind when you look at the team total bets offered by top sportsbooks like Bovada.
Tennessee Pass Offense vs. Cleveland Secondary
It has been established that Cleveland’s top cornerback, Denzel Ward, is unlikely to see the field on Sunday because he is still injured.
Cleveland’s pass defense ranks 20th — as measured by opposing passing yards per game — despite the Pro Bowler Ward. After Ward, there is a significant drop-off in coverage ability.
Titan quarterback Ryan Tannehill does not boast attractive season stats because he has had to be tested by a number of high-ranked pass defenses like that of the Colts, twice, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh.
But he reliably throws for at least close to 300 yards along with multiple touchdowns against lower-ranked pass defenses.
Tannehill has a go-to wide receiver in AJ Brown who ranks sixth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns despite missing some games earlier in the season.
Derrick Henry vs. Brown Run Defense
In terms of run defense, the Browns consistently struggle against good ground attacks.
They have faced two of the NFL's five leaders in rushing yards.
One was Josh Jacobs, who achieved a season-high 129 rushing yards when his Raiders faced Cleveland.
The other was James Robinson, who ran for a season-high 128 rushing yards last week when his Jaguars almost upset the Browns.
Right now, the NFL’s leader in rushing yards is Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and it’s not even close. He has 1,257 rushing yards, which is 127 rushing yards more than anybody else.
If this trend — where the Browns allow season-high rushing totals to top-five running backs — were to continue, then Henry would exceed 212 rushing yards.
Henry is physical and explosive, which makes him difficult for defenders to bring down. He will wear down an opposing defense all by himself.
Cleveland Offense vs. Tennessee Defense
One might think that a run-heavy offense would be more likely be involved in a game that stays under the total posted at sportsbooks.
But the ‘over’ is 4-0 in Tennessee’s games where it played an opponent that ranks top-14 in rush-play percentage.
Statistically, the Titan run defense is mediocre. So the fact that it plays the Browns — which rank first in run-play percentage — merits pessimism.
Cleveland will employ two tight-end sets in an attempt to add physicality to its offensive approach.
With his ridiculous 6.3 YPC average so far, Nick Chubb leads a Brown backfield that will also lean on the respectably efficient Kareem Hunt in order to keep the opposing run defense off-balance.
Clearly, the Browns want to rely on their run game and that’s fine. But don’t let this reliance and don’t let public perception fool you about Cleveland quarterback Baker Mayfield.
Mayfield does really well against bad pass defenses as long as the weather cooperates. Importantly, no precipitation is expected to fall for Sunday’s contest.
The former first-round draft pick has played three games against bottom-10 pass defenses where the weather wasn’t absolutely atrocious.
In those three games combined, he threw for nine touchdowns to two interceptions while being efficient in terms of completion percentage and throwing for way more passing yards than he does in other games.
Pass defense has been a big problem for Tennessee. It ranks 28th in the category. So Baker can take advantage with his favored play-action passes and other plays.
The Verdict
Expect a high-scoring game where the Browns run well in order to execute on a higher-level on offense and where the Browns also give up 30+ points on the road, again, as Tannehill and Henry lead a sufficiently balanced Titan offense.
Tennessee is a strong team. With its proven record, it already becomes the type of team that Cleveland completely flops against on the road.
For the above reasons, expect with your Best Bets a clear Titan win that showcases a high point total.
In addition to joining me on the parlay, don’t forget to play the Titan team total ‘over’ 28.5 at -130 at Bovada plus the alternate spread Titans -8.5 at +130 at Bovada.
Best Bet: Parlay Titans -5.5 at -116 & Over 54 at -110 at +264 with BetOnline
