Brewerfan003's nfl plays 2013-2014 (regular season)
- Thread starter brewerfan003
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brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
seattle -3.5 1* 2nd half (-105)
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
Broncos TT over 35 -130 1*
Broncos/Eagles over 58.5 1*
Broncos/Eagles over 58.5 1*
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
Chargers/cowgirls over 23 2nd half 1* (-120)
Raiders +4.5 2nd half 1/2* (-105)
Raiders +4.5 2nd half 1/2* (-105)
brewerfan003
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wow! Denver is a scoring machine!
brewerfan003
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4-3-1
+1.22* on the day
+1.22* on the day
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
12-15-1 on year
-0.35* on year so far
-0.35* on year so far
brewerfan003
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Teaser 6 pts:
saints -1/over 43.5 1* (-110)
saints -1/over 43.5 1* (-110)
brewerfan003
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Winner on teaser and back in the + side.
13-15-1 +0.65*
13-15-1 +0.65*
brewerfan003
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1* under 41 browns/bills
brewerfan003
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13-16-1 -0.45*
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
Sunday:
6pt teaser--packers -1, 49ers -1 2*
6pt teaser--packers -1, 49ers -1 2*
brewerfan003
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7pt teaser:
packers pk
49ers pk
cowbooys +16
risking 1* to win 1.2*
packers pk
49ers pk
cowbooys +16
risking 1* to win 1.2*
D
dilaudid8
Guest
fan bol this week
D
dilaudid8
Guest
fan make your bookmaker pay bol
brewerfan003
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Thanks buddy....let's go 49ers!
brewerfan003
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Go niners
brewerfan003
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6ptteaser:
chargers pk and ATL -4
1/2*
chargers pk and ATL -4
1/2*
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
15-17-1
+2.2*
+2.2*
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
Working on plays for Sunday:
7pt teaser:
chiefs -2, buccaneers +10, 49ers -4 (1*/1.2*)
7pt teaser:
chiefs -2, buccaneers +10, 49ers -4 (1*/1.2*)
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
Dave tulley's picks:
LAS VEGAS -- A lot of people like to knock my "dog-or-pass" betting philosophy, so it was great to hear it supported by none other than Hall of Fame coach Don Shula (via Larry King) last Friday night on the "Olbermann" show on ESPN2.
For those who didn't see it: King, the retired talk-show host, was pinch hitting for Keith Olbermann while KO was moonlighting with the MLB playoffs on TBS. King, who worked in Miami before becoming a national figure, told the story of how he was covering a "Monday Night Football" game between the Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 3, 1973. A friend of his had bet $20,000 on the Dolphins minus-5 and they took a 30-3 halftime lead.
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Terry Bradshaw rallied the Steelers, and the score was 30-24 in the closing minutes, so King's friend was happy as the Dolphins were still covering the 5-point spread. But then, with just over a minute left, instead of punting from deep in their own territory, the Dolphins took an intentional safety with quarterback Bob Griese taking an intentional safety.
"The Dolphins win 30-26," King said. "My friend laid 5. They won by 4. He lost $20,000.
"Later, I'm flying on a plane with Don Shula going to another game and I'm talking about betting. Don, the great coach, never bet. And I told him what happened with my friend. So Don said to me, 'Now wait a minute. He bet on the Dolphins. We're all jumping up and down. We won, and he lost. That doesn't make any sense.' He said, 'If I were betting' -- and he's not a betting man -- 'I would only bet football if I loved the underdog. If you love the underdog, then you're getting points. But to lay points is insane.'"
That's a big part of the reason I stick with underdogs. You know their goal (to win the game or to get back in it) works in concert with yours. Meanwhile, the favorite's main goal is getting a win, and a one-point victory counts the same as any other. Sure, there are times we see favorites tack on one last score that just so happens to cover the spread. People certainly joke that the coach did it for the alumni in college or their fans in the pros (and I'm not naïve enough to say that that never happens). However, usually the main incentive is to just ensure the victory. But if ensuring that victory means playing prevent defense and letting the opposition get in the back door or taking an intentional safety, the favorite isn't working in your best interest.
OK, so it hasn't been working so well for yours truly so far this season, but I know that it's the right approach over the long term -- and who's going to debate Don Shula on this?
I had another subpar week last week at 3-5. But at one point early in the third quarters of the Sunday afternoon games, it looked like the Broncos were going to pull away and blow out the Cowboys and the Cardinals were struggling with the Panthers. I was 1-4 at that point and starting to fear that I might be 1-6 with just one game to go. So, considering that, 3-5 doesn't seem so bad. Hopefully the turnaround starts this week.
Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially since they mostly have you pick games straight-up and the games are pretty closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column. Good luck.
Last week: 3-5 ATS | Year to date: 15-19-1 (44.1 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of early Friday morning.
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -9
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Raiders
Public perception: The public is split on this game (51 percent on the Raiders at ESPN PickCenter as of this writing on early Friday morning), as the Chiefs have gained supporters every week (a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record will do that) while the Raiders have also been getting more popular with the emergence of quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were all over the Chiefs in over/under win totals and early this season, but that support is starting to cool as their odds are getting a bit inflated. Add to that the fact that the sharps are also taking notice of Pryor's play and we're likely to see them join the public on the Oakland side here.
Tuley's Take: I lean to the Raiders, too, but the Chiefs' defense really has impressed me. That's keeping me from pulling the trigger, as I see this game as being close to the spread, but I'm not sure the Raiders can stop the Chiefs' running game in crunch time, nor be able to score late if needing to get the back-door cover. Basically, there are underdogs I feel more confident about this week.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders).
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Eagles -1.5
Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Eagles
Public perception: The public is loading up on the Eagles, not even waiting to see if Michael Vick will be cleared to play or if Nick Foles will get the start. But that's because there's no one rushing to support Mike Glennon, who did fine in his debut two weeks ago against the Cardinals but then threw a key interception that led to Arizona's upset win.
Wiseguys' view: This is usually a spot, with a 1.5-point home underdog that sharps would be looking to tease them over a touchdown, but the Bucs aren't looking that worthy of even that lukewarm support. The highlight of their season so far has been covering as 3-point underdogs in their 16-14 Week 2 loss to the Saints.
Tuley's Take: I'm not going to lay the point(s), but I do think the Eagles are clearly the right side. See the "Streak for the Cash" section at the bottom.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles).
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Packers -3
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Packers
Public perception: The public is almost always on the Packers, so we expected to see this with the line under a field goal. The public still doesn't think the Ravens are as good as they were on their Super Bowl run last year.
Wiseguys' view: A few offshores opened at 3.5, but those didn't last long. Wiseguys were on the Packers last week even before Calvin Johnson was declared out for the Lions and the line went from Pack minus-7 to minus-10, but they're on the Ravens here. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbook.com also uncovers that the Ravens, with an already strong home-field advantage, are 5-0 ATS at home under coach John Harbaugh in games off a SU underdog win, the role they find themselves in Sunday.
Tuley's Take: The Packers also aren't as strong on the road (having already lost to the 49ers and Bengals), and I wasn't as impressed with the Packers' 22-9 win over the injury-ravaged Lions. The Packers' newfound running game faces a tough test in the Ravens' defense, and I think Baltimore makes a statement here that it's back in contention again.
The pick: Ravens.
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Lions -2.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Lions
Public perception: The public is on the Lions so far, though it's probably more because they're still not ready to jump on the Browns' bandwagon even though they've won three straight games after the Trent Richardson trade was supposed to signal them giving up on the season. The public might jump on board if it looks like Calvin Johnson, listed as a game-time decision as of this writing, looks like he won't play.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps have taken away a lot of the Browns plus-3 out there, and that'll look like an even better bet if Johnson is out. Regardless, Cleveland has the much stronger defense at this point, and wiseguys like getting points with the better defense.
Tuley's Take: I prefer the Cleveland side, but I missed out on the plus-3, so I'm likely to sit this one out unless somehow the public pushes this line back to a field goal. It's a case where I would prefer a less-than-100 percent Johnson to play so I can get that key half-point.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns).
Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -2.5
Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Vikings
Public perception: The public usually has a penchant for backing teams off a bye, feeling they'll come back healthy and focused, even though such teams are usually around .500 ATS (and the trend is off to a 1-1 start this season). Of course, the Panthers' 22-9 loss to the Cardinals after their bye week certainly didn't inspire confidence in bettors.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly waiting to see if they can get the Panthers plus-3, though they will probably also be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's Take: I'll also wait for plus-3, but I like the Panthers enough to take them if it stays 2.5. Despite being just 1-3 (and their only win being over the Giants), the defense has impressed me, as has its No. 3 in average yards (301.5) allowed per game. It looks like Matt Cassel will start again even with Christian Ponder cleared to play (and Josh Freeman waiting in the wings), but that doesn't scare me off my position as the Vikings' defense (allowing 430.8 yards per game) should help Cam Newton and the Panthers get back on track.
The pick: Panthers.
Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -7.5
Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Texans
Public perception: It doesn't look like the public is giving the Rams much respect for their win/cover over the Jaguars (and no one is blaming them). So even though Matt Schaub has turned into a national punchline by throwing a pick-six in four straight games, the public is willing to back the Texans here.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also were behind the move to push this line higher than its opener of Texans minus-7, but they're backing off now with the hook, though they will surely be another popular teaser play.
Tuley's Take: The Texans have certainly let down a lot of bettors, as they're 0-5 ATS with non-covering wins over the Chargers and Titans the first two weeks and then three SU losses. However, they still have a lot of talent and the No. 1 defense in the league (260.2 yards per game). Still, I can't make a case for the Rams, who covered for the first time last Sunday while barely putting away the Jaguars.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans, especially if your pool has a contest line of 6.5).
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Spread: Jets -2.5
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Jets
Public perception: The public is starting to come around on the Jets, with their No. 2-ranked defense and Geno Smith looking more and more like the real deal. Even the Steelers coming off their bye week hasn't been enough for the previously strong public team to garner much support, which isn't surprising for a 0-4 SU and ATS team.
Wiseguys' view: This was Steelers minus-2 last week in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook, and several books still had the Steelers favored when betting opened later Sunday. However the Jets' 30-28 upset of the Falcons on Monday night caused the switch in favorites.
Tuley's Take: The Jets have a bigger test in next week's rematch with the Patriots, but if they want to be considered serious playoff contenders, this is the type of game they have to win. I haven't seen anything from the Steelers that indicates the bye week will help them turn things around.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets).
Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bengals -7
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: The public is solidly on the Bengals, but that's obviously partly because they're trying to figure out who this Thaddeus Lewis guy is who's starting at quarterback for the Bills.
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game -- before Buffalo starter quarterback E.J. Manuel was hurt again in the Thursday night game against the Browns -- was just Bengals minus-3.5. Now there's been a significant adjustment. Wiseguys would normally like a big road dog like this, but likely to take a pass with the untested Lewis (who spent training camp with the Lions before being traded to the Browns and added to their practice squad).
Tuley's Take: A lot of trends favor the Bills here (home dogs 16-10 ATS so far this year; teams with 10 days rest coming off of Thursday games are 7-1 ATS), so while I'm leery of backing Lewis, I think his mobility fits the offense similar to Manuel as opposed to the other backup, Jeff Tuel. Besides, this is just as much a bet against the Bengals at the inflated price. Sure, the Bengals beat the Patriots (aided by a rainstorm) last week at home, but their last road game was lackluster, as they also lost to the Browns. They will be quite content to grind out a win here, which is fine with me as long as it's under a touchdown.
The pick: Bills.
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -13.5
Public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: Here's the first of three straight double-digit spreads with the public on the favorites in each case despite laying big points. The Seahawks were 8-0 SU and ATS at home last season and are off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start this year with blowouts of the 49ers and Jaguars.
Wiseguys' view: Jake Locker is out 4-6 weeks, but sharp bettors are expected to jump on the Titans if and when this line gets to 14.
Tuley's Take: The Titans lost to the Chiefs last week, but they're still one of the surprise teams at 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. I've been on the Seahawks' home-field advantage for longer than most, but I think we could be seeing where it's been an overadjustment in the line.
The pick: Titans.
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos minus-27
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Broncos
Public perception: The general public is still inclined to back the Broncos at any number (despite them not covering against the closing line in two of their past three games) and fading the Jaguars at any number.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened to much fanfare as high as 28, and it's been all sharp money that has dropped it to a consensus 27 in Vegas as of this writing early Friday morning. It's been as low as 26 at some offshore books. Wiseguys also know that 20-point NFL underdogs are gold as they've covered the last six times a line has entered this rarified air.
Tuley's Take: We could go on and on about the historical data on games in this spread range (and we did in our ESPN Insider "Opening Line" column on Monday, and Chad Millman did as well on his blogs and podcast this week), but I also feel this line is inflated on the merits of the teams.
In our most recent Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll, albeit from Sept. 24, the difference in our power rankings on these two teams was 17 points. I've upgraded the Jaguars two points since then, so even with Denver's home-field advantage, I feel this line should be closer to the minus-19.5 that Seattle had against the Jags two weeks ago. Now, the Seahawks covered that number, but Jacksonville has since added receiver Justin Blackmon back from suspension, and he could have a game like fellow Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant had against the Broncos' secondary last week. But the biggest reason to take the points is just like those other previous 20-point favorites: They're content to get out with a win (and Don Shula would certainly agree with that).
The pick: Jaguars.
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -11
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked 49ers
Public perception: The 49ers are back with back-to-back blowout wins over the Rams and Texans, so the public is back on them as well.
Wiseguys' view: There are still some doubters in the wiseguy community about the quality of those past two wins by San Francisco. The routs were just as much a result of the ineptitude of the Rams and Texans as they were about the 49ers forcing them into mistakes.
Tuley's Take: Since I lost with them in Week 3 against the Saints, the Cardinals have come through for me in back-to-back weeks with upset wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Now, this is a step back up in class, but I'm encouraged by the defense, which was already strong and carrying this team. They now add unheralded linebacker Darryl Washington back from suspension. Both teams are 3-2 and I see this is a defensive battle where points will be at a premium, even in this wide-open offensive era.
The pick: Cardinals.
Matchup: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Saints
Public perception: As of late Thursday night, this is the only underdog that the public is solidly behind. That's understandable with the Saints off to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS start, plus the (usually also very public) Patriots coming off a loss.
Wiseguys' view: There used to be a well-used trend about Bill Belichick winning and covering off a loss, but it's cooled down and wiseguys are not as afraid to fade the Patriots at home either. As it is, there's a split among sharps on this game, with some lining up on each side. Some think the Saints are for real and the Patriots are down, but others think the potential return of tight end Rob Gronkowski could cure the Pats' offensive woes (averaging just 19 points a game).
Tuley's Take: I'm in the camp that thinks the Patriots are starting to get a little underrated. I'm also still not totally convinced that the Saints' new and improved defense can keep up its hot start.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).
Matchup: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -5.5
Public consensus pick: 79 percent picked Cowboys
Public perception: The Cowboys certainly gained a lot of respect with the spread-covering 51-48 loss to the Broncos. The Redskins went into their bye off a 24-14 victory over the Raiders, but it wasn't impressive enough to get the public's support here. Wiseguys' view: The sharps have joined the public is pushing this line up from its opener of Cowboys minus-4.5 at the LVH SuperBook and minus-5 offshore, and it looks like it'll get pushed to 6.
Tuley's Take: As I've said before, while most of the attention has been on how Robert Griffin III has performed, the thing that has been exposed the most has been the Washington defense (allowing a league-worst 440.5 yards per game). I can't back a dog with a defense that bad.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys).
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Colts -1.5
Public consensus pick: 84 percent picked Colts
Public perception: Just like last season, the Indy bandwagon is filling up with the Colts winning three straight, including upsets of the 49ers and Seahawks. The Chargers' 27-17 loss to the Raiders was also less than inspiring.
Wiseguys' view: A lot of sharps thought the Colts would regress from last season since they were outgained in a lot of their games and not considered to be as good as their 11-5 record. They looked right, as the Colts won but did not cover in their opener against the Raiders. They then lost to the Dolphins, but now these last three wins have them rethinking their position.
Tuley's Take: I'm not willing to give up on the Chargers yet. Yes, the loss at Oakland was disappointing (though I only had them in contests as the favorite), but they're still 3-1-1 ATS and they're 2-0 ATS at home. Their win over the Cowboys looks better after the latter's 51-48 loss to the Broncos. Their No. 5-ranked offense should come with their best effort at home and before the national TV audience on the "Monday Night" stage.
The pick: Chargers.
Streak for the Cash
When playing this contest, it's doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games will usually be favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog.
Best bet: Patriots versus Saints: This is the only game offered in the afternoon here in Vegas (aka the "late afternoon" games in the Eastern time zone), with the other three games having huge spreads. The Patriots have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league (83 percent since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002). Granted, most of those wins weren't against teams as good as New Orleans, but despite their win at Chicago last week, the Saints usually don't fare as well away from home. If you're going to fade them anytime this year, this is it.
Confidence meter: 60 percent
Eagles at Buccaneers: I wanted to make this my best bet, but I got burned last week with the Chargers over the Raiders, as I went against one of my cardinal rules by taking an NFL road favorite. I believe in contests like "Streak for the Cash" or survivor pools, those should usually be avoided, but I'll stubbornly make an exception here.
Confidence meter: 59 percent
Jets versus Steelers: This game goes at the same time as Eagles-Bucs, so it's a good alternative if you prefer taking a home team. These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and you get the Jets with the better defense and arguably the better offense, too.
Confidence meter: 56.5 percent
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Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
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Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
LAS VEGAS -- A lot of people like to knock my "dog-or-pass" betting philosophy, so it was great to hear it supported by none other than Hall of Fame coach Don Shula (via Larry King) last Friday night on the "Olbermann" show on ESPN2.
For those who didn't see it: King, the retired talk-show host, was pinch hitting for Keith Olbermann while KO was moonlighting with the MLB playoffs on TBS. King, who worked in Miami before becoming a national figure, told the story of how he was covering a "Monday Night Football" game between the Dolphins and the Pittsburgh Steelers on Dec. 3, 1973. A friend of his had bet $20,000 on the Dolphins minus-5 and they took a 30-3 halftime lead.
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Terry Bradshaw rallied the Steelers, and the score was 30-24 in the closing minutes, so King's friend was happy as the Dolphins were still covering the 5-point spread. But then, with just over a minute left, instead of punting from deep in their own territory, the Dolphins took an intentional safety with quarterback Bob Griese taking an intentional safety.
"The Dolphins win 30-26," King said. "My friend laid 5. They won by 4. He lost $20,000.
"Later, I'm flying on a plane with Don Shula going to another game and I'm talking about betting. Don, the great coach, never bet. And I told him what happened with my friend. So Don said to me, 'Now wait a minute. He bet on the Dolphins. We're all jumping up and down. We won, and he lost. That doesn't make any sense.' He said, 'If I were betting' -- and he's not a betting man -- 'I would only bet football if I loved the underdog. If you love the underdog, then you're getting points. But to lay points is insane.'"
That's a big part of the reason I stick with underdogs. You know their goal (to win the game or to get back in it) works in concert with yours. Meanwhile, the favorite's main goal is getting a win, and a one-point victory counts the same as any other. Sure, there are times we see favorites tack on one last score that just so happens to cover the spread. People certainly joke that the coach did it for the alumni in college or their fans in the pros (and I'm not naïve enough to say that that never happens). However, usually the main incentive is to just ensure the victory. But if ensuring that victory means playing prevent defense and letting the opposition get in the back door or taking an intentional safety, the favorite isn't working in your best interest.
OK, so it hasn't been working so well for yours truly so far this season, but I know that it's the right approach over the long term -- and who's going to debate Don Shula on this?
I had another subpar week last week at 3-5. But at one point early in the third quarters of the Sunday afternoon games, it looked like the Broncos were going to pull away and blow out the Cowboys and the Cardinals were struggling with the Panthers. I was 1-4 at that point and starting to fear that I might be 1-6 with just one game to go. So, considering that, 3-5 doesn't seem so bad. Hopefully the turnaround starts this week.
Programming Note: I'm no longer eligible for ESPN.com's "Streak for the Cash" contest, but they've asked me to suggest some plays. This is different from picking games against the spread (especially since they mostly have you pick games straight-up and the games are pretty closer to pick 'em), but it's all about win percentages/odds, so I'll tackle those at the end of the column. Good luck.
Last week: 3-5 ATS | Year to date: 15-19-1 (44.1 percent) ATS
Note: Consensus pick percentages as of early Friday morning.
Matchup: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -9
Public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Raiders
Public perception: The public is split on this game (51 percent on the Raiders at ESPN PickCenter as of this writing on early Friday morning), as the Chiefs have gained supporters every week (a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS record will do that) while the Raiders have also been getting more popular with the emergence of quarterback Terrelle Pryor.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were all over the Chiefs in over/under win totals and early this season, but that support is starting to cool as their odds are getting a bit inflated. Add to that the fact that the sharps are also taking notice of Pryor's play and we're likely to see them join the public on the Oakland side here.
Tuley's Take: I lean to the Raiders, too, but the Chiefs' defense really has impressed me. That's keeping me from pulling the trigger, as I see this game as being close to the spread, but I'm not sure the Raiders can stop the Chiefs' running game in crunch time, nor be able to score late if needing to get the back-door cover. Basically, there are underdogs I feel more confident about this week.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Raiders).
Matchup: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Eagles -1.5
Public consensus pick: 80 percent picked Eagles
Public perception: The public is loading up on the Eagles, not even waiting to see if Michael Vick will be cleared to play or if Nick Foles will get the start. But that's because there's no one rushing to support Mike Glennon, who did fine in his debut two weeks ago against the Cardinals but then threw a key interception that led to Arizona's upset win.
Wiseguys' view: This is usually a spot, with a 1.5-point home underdog that sharps would be looking to tease them over a touchdown, but the Bucs aren't looking that worthy of even that lukewarm support. The highlight of their season so far has been covering as 3-point underdogs in their 16-14 Week 2 loss to the Saints.
Tuley's Take: I'm not going to lay the point(s), but I do think the Eagles are clearly the right side. See the "Streak for the Cash" section at the bottom.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Eagles).
Matchup: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Packers -3
Public consensus pick: 72 percent picked Packers
Public perception: The public is almost always on the Packers, so we expected to see this with the line under a field goal. The public still doesn't think the Ravens are as good as they were on their Super Bowl run last year.
Wiseguys' view: A few offshores opened at 3.5, but those didn't last long. Wiseguys were on the Packers last week even before Calvin Johnson was declared out for the Lions and the line went from Pack minus-7 to minus-10, but they're on the Ravens here. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbook.com also uncovers that the Ravens, with an already strong home-field advantage, are 5-0 ATS at home under coach John Harbaugh in games off a SU underdog win, the role they find themselves in Sunday.
Tuley's Take: The Packers also aren't as strong on the road (having already lost to the 49ers and Bengals), and I wasn't as impressed with the Packers' 22-9 win over the injury-ravaged Lions. The Packers' newfound running game faces a tough test in the Ravens' defense, and I think Baltimore makes a statement here that it's back in contention again.
The pick: Ravens.
Matchup: Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Lions -2.5
Public consensus pick: 64 percent picked Lions
Public perception: The public is on the Lions so far, though it's probably more because they're still not ready to jump on the Browns' bandwagon even though they've won three straight games after the Trent Richardson trade was supposed to signal them giving up on the season. The public might jump on board if it looks like Calvin Johnson, listed as a game-time decision as of this writing, looks like he won't play.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps have taken away a lot of the Browns plus-3 out there, and that'll look like an even better bet if Johnson is out. Regardless, Cleveland has the much stronger defense at this point, and wiseguys like getting points with the better defense.
Tuley's Take: I prefer the Cleveland side, but I missed out on the plus-3, so I'm likely to sit this one out unless somehow the public pushes this line back to a field goal. It's a case where I would prefer a less-than-100 percent Johnson to play so I can get that key half-point.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Browns).
Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Vikings -2.5
Public consensus pick: 77 percent picked Vikings
Public perception: The public usually has a penchant for backing teams off a bye, feeling they'll come back healthy and focused, even though such teams are usually around .500 ATS (and the trend is off to a 1-1 start this season). Of course, the Panthers' 22-9 loss to the Cardinals after their bye week certainly didn't inspire confidence in bettors.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly waiting to see if they can get the Panthers plus-3, though they will probably also be a popular teaser play.
Tuley's Take: I'll also wait for plus-3, but I like the Panthers enough to take them if it stays 2.5. Despite being just 1-3 (and their only win being over the Giants), the defense has impressed me, as has its No. 3 in average yards (301.5) allowed per game. It looks like Matt Cassel will start again even with Christian Ponder cleared to play (and Josh Freeman waiting in the wings), but that doesn't scare me off my position as the Vikings' defense (allowing 430.8 yards per game) should help Cam Newton and the Panthers get back on track.
The pick: Panthers.
Matchup: St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans
Spread: Texans -7.5
Public consensus pick: 78 percent picked Texans
Public perception: It doesn't look like the public is giving the Rams much respect for their win/cover over the Jaguars (and no one is blaming them). So even though Matt Schaub has turned into a national punchline by throwing a pick-six in four straight games, the public is willing to back the Texans here.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also were behind the move to push this line higher than its opener of Texans minus-7, but they're backing off now with the hook, though they will surely be another popular teaser play.
Tuley's Take: The Texans have certainly let down a lot of bettors, as they're 0-5 ATS with non-covering wins over the Chargers and Titans the first two weeks and then three SU losses. However, they still have a lot of talent and the No. 1 defense in the league (260.2 yards per game). Still, I can't make a case for the Rams, who covered for the first time last Sunday while barely putting away the Jaguars.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Texans, especially if your pool has a contest line of 6.5).
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Spread: Jets -2.5
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Jets
Public perception: The public is starting to come around on the Jets, with their No. 2-ranked defense and Geno Smith looking more and more like the real deal. Even the Steelers coming off their bye week hasn't been enough for the previously strong public team to garner much support, which isn't surprising for a 0-4 SU and ATS team.
Wiseguys' view: This was Steelers minus-2 last week in the advance line at the LVH SuperBook, and several books still had the Steelers favored when betting opened later Sunday. However the Jets' 30-28 upset of the Falcons on Monday night caused the switch in favorites.
Tuley's Take: The Jets have a bigger test in next week's rematch with the Patriots, but if they want to be considered serious playoff contenders, this is the type of game they have to win. I haven't seen anything from the Steelers that indicates the bye week will help them turn things around.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Jets).
Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bengals -7
Public consensus pick: 60 percent picked Bengals
Public perception: The public is solidly on the Bengals, but that's obviously partly because they're trying to figure out who this Thaddeus Lewis guy is who's starting at quarterback for the Bills.
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game -- before Buffalo starter quarterback E.J. Manuel was hurt again in the Thursday night game against the Browns -- was just Bengals minus-3.5. Now there's been a significant adjustment. Wiseguys would normally like a big road dog like this, but likely to take a pass with the untested Lewis (who spent training camp with the Lions before being traded to the Browns and added to their practice squad).
Tuley's Take: A lot of trends favor the Bills here (home dogs 16-10 ATS so far this year; teams with 10 days rest coming off of Thursday games are 7-1 ATS), so while I'm leery of backing Lewis, I think his mobility fits the offense similar to Manuel as opposed to the other backup, Jeff Tuel. Besides, this is just as much a bet against the Bengals at the inflated price. Sure, the Bengals beat the Patriots (aided by a rainstorm) last week at home, but their last road game was lackluster, as they also lost to the Browns. They will be quite content to grind out a win here, which is fine with me as long as it's under a touchdown.
The pick: Bills.
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Seahawks -13.5
Public consensus pick: 74 percent picked Seahawks
Public perception: Here's the first of three straight double-digit spreads with the public on the favorites in each case despite laying big points. The Seahawks were 8-0 SU and ATS at home last season and are off to a 2-0 SU and ATS start this year with blowouts of the 49ers and Jaguars.
Wiseguys' view: Jake Locker is out 4-6 weeks, but sharp bettors are expected to jump on the Titans if and when this line gets to 14.
Tuley's Take: The Titans lost to the Chiefs last week, but they're still one of the surprise teams at 3-2 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. I've been on the Seahawks' home-field advantage for longer than most, but I think we could be seeing where it's been an overadjustment in the line.
The pick: Titans.
Matchup: Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Spread: Broncos minus-27
Public consensus pick: 55 percent picked Broncos
Public perception: The general public is still inclined to back the Broncos at any number (despite them not covering against the closing line in two of their past three games) and fading the Jaguars at any number.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened to much fanfare as high as 28, and it's been all sharp money that has dropped it to a consensus 27 in Vegas as of this writing early Friday morning. It's been as low as 26 at some offshore books. Wiseguys also know that 20-point NFL underdogs are gold as they've covered the last six times a line has entered this rarified air.
Tuley's Take: We could go on and on about the historical data on games in this spread range (and we did in our ESPN Insider "Opening Line" column on Monday, and Chad Millman did as well on his blogs and podcast this week), but I also feel this line is inflated on the merits of the teams.
In our most recent Vegas NFL Bettors' Poll, albeit from Sept. 24, the difference in our power rankings on these two teams was 17 points. I've upgraded the Jaguars two points since then, so even with Denver's home-field advantage, I feel this line should be closer to the minus-19.5 that Seattle had against the Jags two weeks ago. Now, the Seahawks covered that number, but Jacksonville has since added receiver Justin Blackmon back from suspension, and he could have a game like fellow Oklahoma State receiver Dez Bryant had against the Broncos' secondary last week. But the biggest reason to take the points is just like those other previous 20-point favorites: They're content to get out with a win (and Don Shula would certainly agree with that).
The pick: Jaguars.
Matchup: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -11
Public consensus pick: 58 percent picked 49ers
Public perception: The 49ers are back with back-to-back blowout wins over the Rams and Texans, so the public is back on them as well.
Wiseguys' view: There are still some doubters in the wiseguy community about the quality of those past two wins by San Francisco. The routs were just as much a result of the ineptitude of the Rams and Texans as they were about the 49ers forcing them into mistakes.
Tuley's Take: Since I lost with them in Week 3 against the Saints, the Cardinals have come through for me in back-to-back weeks with upset wins over the Buccaneers and Panthers. Now, this is a step back up in class, but I'm encouraged by the defense, which was already strong and carrying this team. They now add unheralded linebacker Darryl Washington back from suspension. Both teams are 3-2 and I see this is a defensive battle where points will be at a premium, even in this wide-open offensive era.
The pick: Cardinals.
Matchup: New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Saints
Public perception: As of late Thursday night, this is the only underdog that the public is solidly behind. That's understandable with the Saints off to a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS start, plus the (usually also very public) Patriots coming off a loss.
Wiseguys' view: There used to be a well-used trend about Bill Belichick winning and covering off a loss, but it's cooled down and wiseguys are not as afraid to fade the Patriots at home either. As it is, there's a split among sharps on this game, with some lining up on each side. Some think the Saints are for real and the Patriots are down, but others think the potential return of tight end Rob Gronkowski could cure the Pats' offensive woes (averaging just 19 points a game).
Tuley's Take: I'm in the camp that thinks the Patriots are starting to get a little underrated. I'm also still not totally convinced that the Saints' new and improved defense can keep up its hot start.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Patriots).
Matchup: Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -5.5
Public consensus pick: 79 percent picked Cowboys
Public perception: The Cowboys certainly gained a lot of respect with the spread-covering 51-48 loss to the Broncos. The Redskins went into their bye off a 24-14 victory over the Raiders, but it wasn't impressive enough to get the public's support here. Wiseguys' view: The sharps have joined the public is pushing this line up from its opener of Cowboys minus-4.5 at the LVH SuperBook and minus-5 offshore, and it looks like it'll get pushed to 6.
Tuley's Take: As I've said before, while most of the attention has been on how Robert Griffin III has performed, the thing that has been exposed the most has been the Washington defense (allowing a league-worst 440.5 yards per game). I can't back a dog with a defense that bad.
The pick: Pass (pool play: Cowboys).
Matchup: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers
Spread: Colts -1.5
Public consensus pick: 84 percent picked Colts
Public perception: Just like last season, the Indy bandwagon is filling up with the Colts winning three straight, including upsets of the 49ers and Seahawks. The Chargers' 27-17 loss to the Raiders was also less than inspiring.
Wiseguys' view: A lot of sharps thought the Colts would regress from last season since they were outgained in a lot of their games and not considered to be as good as their 11-5 record. They looked right, as the Colts won but did not cover in their opener against the Raiders. They then lost to the Dolphins, but now these last three wins have them rethinking their position.
Tuley's Take: I'm not willing to give up on the Chargers yet. Yes, the loss at Oakland was disappointing (though I only had them in contests as the favorite), but they're still 3-1-1 ATS and they're 2-0 ATS at home. Their win over the Cowboys looks better after the latter's 51-48 loss to the Broncos. Their No. 5-ranked offense should come with their best effort at home and before the national TV audience on the "Monday Night" stage.
The pick: Chargers.
Streak for the Cash
When playing this contest, it's doesn't make sense to pick a lot of underdogs, as you don't get any extra points for doing that. So my suggested games will usually be favorites where I haven't been able to make a strong case for the underdog.
Best bet: Patriots versus Saints: This is the only game offered in the afternoon here in Vegas (aka the "late afternoon" games in the Eastern time zone), with the other three games having huge spreads. The Patriots have one of the strongest home-field advantages in the league (83 percent since Gillette Stadium opened in 2002). Granted, most of those wins weren't against teams as good as New Orleans, but despite their win at Chicago last week, the Saints usually don't fare as well away from home. If you're going to fade them anytime this year, this is it.
Confidence meter: 60 percent
Eagles at Buccaneers: I wanted to make this my best bet, but I got burned last week with the Chargers over the Raiders, as I went against one of my cardinal rules by taking an NFL road favorite. I believe in contests like "Streak for the Cash" or survivor pools, those should usually be avoided, but I'll stubbornly make an exception here.
Confidence meter: 59 percent
Jets versus Steelers: This game goes at the same time as Eagles-Bucs, so it's a good alternative if you prefer taking a home team. These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and you get the Jets with the better defense and arguably the better offense, too.
Confidence meter: 56.5 percent
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Dave Tuley
ESPN Insider
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Dave Tuley has covered the Las Vegas race and sports book scene since 1998 and runs his own website, ViewFromVegas.com.
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
sorry plays are late but here they are:
pack/ravens over 49.5 3*
texans 1st half -4.5 (-120) 2*
vikings-1/2 1st qtr (+130) 1/2*
texans -9 1*
Teasers (7pts +120) 1* each:
Chiefs -1, pack over 42.5, texans -2
cheifs -1, steelers +6, texans -2
teaser (6pt -110) 1*
chiefs -2, steelers +5
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
as far as the games for me are going right now...it's a good thing I didn't post until 12:02 hahahaha
wow...need some big help
wow...need some big help
brewerfan003
Pretty much a regular
houston texans SUCK wow they suck
0-6 today (-9.1*) with a couple of plays remaining....
good thing no one able to follow me if they wanted to ha-ha....
I'll keep posting, better get the fade train lined up after this performance
uking::rofl::hang::stretcher:
