CollegeKingRex
CTG Regular
Onto the richest day in thoroughbred racing. Been looking forward to this for awhile and I think today is a good chance for us to make some money on the horsies. There will be live longshots in about every race. There are also no entries today, so each horse's number is also the post they will break from in all 10 races.
From the top of the card.
The first is a $200K stakes - a 6-furlong sprint on the dirt. It appears to be fairly wide-open. There are a few I'm eyeballing here. The 5 (Maryfield) broke poorly last time and that spells suicide in a sprint. The 12 (Hot Storm) ran third in a G-III at Keeneland last time and switches back to the main dirt track. She's 8-for-19 at the distance and if she stays out of a sizzling pace duel, she's the one to beat. Prospective Saint (the 6) will be the likely one to beat if that pace duel develops, as she hasn't sprinted since July. The 3 (Fiery Pursuit) is a live longshot, beating Alw-2 foes at Keeneland and winning against the Polytrack bias (up front, held on) and is her third start off a layoff. The step-up in class is a concern but she's got a shot.
Probably going to use the 6 to win, with the 3-5-12 underneath.
The second is a Grade III one mile rout for 3YO and up. Magna Graduate (the 10) will get all the attention but this is his first start since the Dubai World Cup back in March so he'll likely need a race or two. It's No Joke (the 7) has won three times over the footing, has the luxury of tactical speed and has held his own in graded stakes races. If you're willing to throw out the polytrack race, then Latent Heat (the 2) belongs in here. Awesome Twist (the 3) gets Prado back after two in-the-money finishes in his last two graded stakes. One other that I like is No. 12, Greeley's Galaxy, who has trained great the last three weeks and can't be dismissed.
Gonna try to beat the chalk. Using the 7 across the board. Will use 7-2-3 on top of 7-2-3-12 in exactas and tris.
Now to the Breeders' Cup races. I could sit for an hour and analyze every horse but who has time for that. Just gonna give you the picks and if you want to know why, then ask and I'll try to get in the thread often and update.
Churchill 3rd (Juvenile Fillies) - Using Her Majesty on top. She jumped into G-II company last time and was rewarded with post 13 and was caught wide throughout. She's a dangerous closer that should have plenty of pace to run at here. You can bet the '1' and the '3' will get plenty of attention but I'mma try to beat the '3' (won with help of a bias at SA over a sprinter who came out of the race sick). The '1' has beaten males and I'll use her underneath, with the '4' and '12'.
CD 4th (Juvenile) - This, like the last, looks pretty dam wide-open. I've got 2 who I like best. The 9 (Circular Quay) and the 3 (Scat Daddy). The 9 was unbeaten before the polytrack miss (lost to Great Hunter, the 7, who I think is a polytrack horse) and didn't get the best of trips in that one. He has won twice at Churchill, but I'm just not sure this horse is a 2-turn horse; might be more suited to be a closing sprinter than a route runner. The '3' is 3-for-4 with the lone loss to the '9' in the Hopeful. His Champagne win was very impressive, as it came where he rallied to win despite a slow pace being set and now that it will be faster today, he should really get rolling late. This is the Pletcher horse I like best. Using the '3' on top of the 10-9-2. The '6' also is worth a look and the '1' will get some consolation cash from me if I see anything near the 20-to-1 that Battaglia tagged him for the Morning Line.
CD 5th (Filly and Mare Turf) - Most people saying that Ouija Board (the 2) is in a class of her own when racing against these girls. Pletcher is sending three after her. The 7 (Wait a While) is stretching out and seems to be the logical second choice. My longshot here is the 10 (Germance), who got a horrible trip in the G-I Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland last time, stalking the pace while wide early after getting squeezed back and bumped in his first US race. Soumillion is the new jockey and he's won a BC race (2005 Turf, Shirocco) and this price will be too high. Going with the 10 across the board and will box the 2-7-10 in exotics.
CD 6th (Sprint) - Perhaps the most exciting race of the day is this one, because there are so many ways to handicap it. If you think a closer will get there (like I do), then longshot possibilities abound. (NOTE - it will be tough, as there is soooo much class up front in this race). Siren Lure (the 11) seems very logical, winning 5-of-6 this year. Remember Bob Baffert? One of the trainer's only two Cup horses is Too Much Bling (the 9), who has plenty of speed and will be a solid price. He's fast and can chase and finish. Baffert has had him pointed here all year. Thor's Echo has been talked about pretty positively for his price but it's tough to win this race from the rail (though that rail path has been solid in the first few days of racing this week). Gonna try to use the 9 and 11 on top of the two favorites (4 and 6), while respecting the abilities of the 1, but trying to beat him. Will also bet the 9 across the board. Baffert always strikes when you least expect him.
CD 7th (Mile) - My single race. Using the 6 (Echo of Light) by himself, as I think this is an open race, but Dettori stays here instead of with the '13' (Libretto). Echo of Light has been fairly disappointing in his Group 1s but his last two were romps and there are no real stars in this race. There are several others capable, and I will be using Araafa (the 3), Badge of Silver (the 8, who has not run since New Year's Day), Gorella (the 12) and perhaps the 13 (Librettist).
CD 8th (Distaff) - Barbaro connections exist with the 1 (Round Pond) who is in her third off a layoff but was no match for the 7 or 14 last time. And I'm no fan of trying to bet on vulnerable chalk in wide-open races so I'm throwing the 7 all the way out. She was all out to win the Beldame last time and could be sitting on a clunker shipping in. Pine Island (the 2) has been impressive and can improve, Healthy Addiction (the 3) is a live longshot, and Balletto (14) will be tough with a good pace to chase. But I'm using the 6 (Spun Sugar) on top. Pletcher's using Luzzi here so it might not be his most popular horse in the race but she had two wins and the loss at Keeneland is likely due to running on polytrack. It was also off a two-month layoff so she would be sharper today. Using the '6' on top of the 2-3-14 and will consider the 13 as well, since she narrowly lost to the '6' in the Apple Blossom.
CD 9th (Turf) - The only US horse with a shot is the 10 (English Channel), who was fifth last year in this race. O'Brien has always done well here so the 4 (Scorpion) merits a fair chance and should be close. Throwing out Hurricane Run (7) who has lost three straight and is running for the third time in five weeks. Red Rocks has gotten a lot of positive feedback on the backstretch and I like Dettori in these kind of races. Let's use the 10-4 on top of the 10-4-9-1.
CD 10th (Classic) - I am going to try to beat Bernardini. Lord knows the jockeys in this race are assuredly going to try to make things miserable for this seemingly unbeatable favorite. This is his first race in a full field of older horses and he's only been dominating small fields in New York in his last three. Lava Man has never shipped well so I'll pass there, too. Invasor was sick and missed a lot of training but I've made a lot of money on him this year. Sun King needs to be at his best to get a sniff. David Junior could be a threat if he takes to the turf. Even off the big layoff, he should have a shot (he beat The Tin Man off a similar layoff). Giacomo is a Derby winner so he can't be thrown out because he should take to the track. Perfect Drift sure tries hard and is always in the money. He's the horse I would "root" for if there was not wagering, haha.. Brother Derek isn't coming in with the same fanfair he had in May. He hasn't won since the Triple Crown started, either, though. Trying to use the '4', George Washington, who will make his main track debut here. That's the reason his odds will be high but he's a solid horse and that 132 Timeform rating last time is nothing to scoff at. I like O'Brien and was in the press box with a big bet across the board on Giant's Causeway in 2000 when we got nipped by Tiznow in this race. If he's on top of his game then he's my choice. I'm not gonna be stupid enough to leave the chalk out of my Pick-3, 4, 6 tickets but he won't be in any of my exotics in this race alone. Using the 4 to win it and betting him across, and will use the 11-1-6.
Good luck today, and I'll be around periodically all day.
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From the top of the card.
The first is a $200K stakes - a 6-furlong sprint on the dirt. It appears to be fairly wide-open. There are a few I'm eyeballing here. The 5 (Maryfield) broke poorly last time and that spells suicide in a sprint. The 12 (Hot Storm) ran third in a G-III at Keeneland last time and switches back to the main dirt track. She's 8-for-19 at the distance and if she stays out of a sizzling pace duel, she's the one to beat. Prospective Saint (the 6) will be the likely one to beat if that pace duel develops, as she hasn't sprinted since July. The 3 (Fiery Pursuit) is a live longshot, beating Alw-2 foes at Keeneland and winning against the Polytrack bias (up front, held on) and is her third start off a layoff. The step-up in class is a concern but she's got a shot.
Probably going to use the 6 to win, with the 3-5-12 underneath.
The second is a Grade III one mile rout for 3YO and up. Magna Graduate (the 10) will get all the attention but this is his first start since the Dubai World Cup back in March so he'll likely need a race or two. It's No Joke (the 7) has won three times over the footing, has the luxury of tactical speed and has held his own in graded stakes races. If you're willing to throw out the polytrack race, then Latent Heat (the 2) belongs in here. Awesome Twist (the 3) gets Prado back after two in-the-money finishes in his last two graded stakes. One other that I like is No. 12, Greeley's Galaxy, who has trained great the last three weeks and can't be dismissed.
Gonna try to beat the chalk. Using the 7 across the board. Will use 7-2-3 on top of 7-2-3-12 in exactas and tris.
Now to the Breeders' Cup races. I could sit for an hour and analyze every horse but who has time for that. Just gonna give you the picks and if you want to know why, then ask and I'll try to get in the thread often and update.
Churchill 3rd (Juvenile Fillies) - Using Her Majesty on top. She jumped into G-II company last time and was rewarded with post 13 and was caught wide throughout. She's a dangerous closer that should have plenty of pace to run at here. You can bet the '1' and the '3' will get plenty of attention but I'mma try to beat the '3' (won with help of a bias at SA over a sprinter who came out of the race sick). The '1' has beaten males and I'll use her underneath, with the '4' and '12'.
CD 4th (Juvenile) - This, like the last, looks pretty dam wide-open. I've got 2 who I like best. The 9 (Circular Quay) and the 3 (Scat Daddy). The 9 was unbeaten before the polytrack miss (lost to Great Hunter, the 7, who I think is a polytrack horse) and didn't get the best of trips in that one. He has won twice at Churchill, but I'm just not sure this horse is a 2-turn horse; might be more suited to be a closing sprinter than a route runner. The '3' is 3-for-4 with the lone loss to the '9' in the Hopeful. His Champagne win was very impressive, as it came where he rallied to win despite a slow pace being set and now that it will be faster today, he should really get rolling late. This is the Pletcher horse I like best. Using the '3' on top of the 10-9-2. The '6' also is worth a look and the '1' will get some consolation cash from me if I see anything near the 20-to-1 that Battaglia tagged him for the Morning Line.
CD 5th (Filly and Mare Turf) - Most people saying that Ouija Board (the 2) is in a class of her own when racing against these girls. Pletcher is sending three after her. The 7 (Wait a While) is stretching out and seems to be the logical second choice. My longshot here is the 10 (Germance), who got a horrible trip in the G-I Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland last time, stalking the pace while wide early after getting squeezed back and bumped in his first US race. Soumillion is the new jockey and he's won a BC race (2005 Turf, Shirocco) and this price will be too high. Going with the 10 across the board and will box the 2-7-10 in exotics.
CD 6th (Sprint) - Perhaps the most exciting race of the day is this one, because there are so many ways to handicap it. If you think a closer will get there (like I do), then longshot possibilities abound. (NOTE - it will be tough, as there is soooo much class up front in this race). Siren Lure (the 11) seems very logical, winning 5-of-6 this year. Remember Bob Baffert? One of the trainer's only two Cup horses is Too Much Bling (the 9), who has plenty of speed and will be a solid price. He's fast and can chase and finish. Baffert has had him pointed here all year. Thor's Echo has been talked about pretty positively for his price but it's tough to win this race from the rail (though that rail path has been solid in the first few days of racing this week). Gonna try to use the 9 and 11 on top of the two favorites (4 and 6), while respecting the abilities of the 1, but trying to beat him. Will also bet the 9 across the board. Baffert always strikes when you least expect him.
CD 7th (Mile) - My single race. Using the 6 (Echo of Light) by himself, as I think this is an open race, but Dettori stays here instead of with the '13' (Libretto). Echo of Light has been fairly disappointing in his Group 1s but his last two were romps and there are no real stars in this race. There are several others capable, and I will be using Araafa (the 3), Badge of Silver (the 8, who has not run since New Year's Day), Gorella (the 12) and perhaps the 13 (Librettist).
CD 8th (Distaff) - Barbaro connections exist with the 1 (Round Pond) who is in her third off a layoff but was no match for the 7 or 14 last time. And I'm no fan of trying to bet on vulnerable chalk in wide-open races so I'm throwing the 7 all the way out. She was all out to win the Beldame last time and could be sitting on a clunker shipping in. Pine Island (the 2) has been impressive and can improve, Healthy Addiction (the 3) is a live longshot, and Balletto (14) will be tough with a good pace to chase. But I'm using the 6 (Spun Sugar) on top. Pletcher's using Luzzi here so it might not be his most popular horse in the race but she had two wins and the loss at Keeneland is likely due to running on polytrack. It was also off a two-month layoff so she would be sharper today. Using the '6' on top of the 2-3-14 and will consider the 13 as well, since she narrowly lost to the '6' in the Apple Blossom.
CD 9th (Turf) - The only US horse with a shot is the 10 (English Channel), who was fifth last year in this race. O'Brien has always done well here so the 4 (Scorpion) merits a fair chance and should be close. Throwing out Hurricane Run (7) who has lost three straight and is running for the third time in five weeks. Red Rocks has gotten a lot of positive feedback on the backstretch and I like Dettori in these kind of races. Let's use the 10-4 on top of the 10-4-9-1.
CD 10th (Classic) - I am going to try to beat Bernardini. Lord knows the jockeys in this race are assuredly going to try to make things miserable for this seemingly unbeatable favorite. This is his first race in a full field of older horses and he's only been dominating small fields in New York in his last three. Lava Man has never shipped well so I'll pass there, too. Invasor was sick and missed a lot of training but I've made a lot of money on him this year. Sun King needs to be at his best to get a sniff. David Junior could be a threat if he takes to the turf. Even off the big layoff, he should have a shot (he beat The Tin Man off a similar layoff). Giacomo is a Derby winner so he can't be thrown out because he should take to the track. Perfect Drift sure tries hard and is always in the money. He's the horse I would "root" for if there was not wagering, haha.. Brother Derek isn't coming in with the same fanfair he had in May. He hasn't won since the Triple Crown started, either, though. Trying to use the '4', George Washington, who will make his main track debut here. That's the reason his odds will be high but he's a solid horse and that 132 Timeform rating last time is nothing to scoff at. I like O'Brien and was in the press box with a big bet across the board on Giant's Causeway in 2000 when we got nipped by Tiznow in this race. If he's on top of his game then he's my choice. I'm not gonna be stupid enough to leave the chalk out of my Pick-3, 4, 6 tickets but he won't be in any of my exotics in this race alone. Using the 4 to win it and betting him across, and will use the 11-1-6.
Good luck today, and I'll be around periodically all day.
:shake:
